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Whatever you say FS. But a collapsing SP with a desperate need for cash is absolutely part of the economics of any deal. Negotiations have a lot to do with the leverage being brought to the table. The idea that CYDY absolutely NEEDS this deal to avoid raising money at $.25 in 3 weeks is solid gold leverage.
I did not understand your last two points on what you were seeking clarification on.
Unless you have a crystal ball I am unaware of than I admit I don’t know how it will end. But I get your point that he hasn’t hit many timelines dead on.
I spoke with NP last week. I am a long-investor. I supported the company in the To this summer bc I thought based on his public statements that TNBC and deal talks were much further along.
I expressed that while the science and data is undeniable for HIV combo and mono that my concern is that every day a deal is not signed, management’s leverage to get it signed weakens. If I were on the other side of the table in these talks and saw the SP collapsing, I would be tempted to re-negotiate bc CYDY is already ready on thin ice. NP heard my concerns and understood them. He said they have experience difficult negotiations before, but is very confident this deal will close in the time frame he has shared publicly.
He also reiterated the importance of Dr Sacha’s work and that the upcoming publication will finally garner the attention the company deserves. I am also skeptical on this but hopeful. We will see.
Yeah. Except the others are approved drugs. Pro 140 is not. RP started with approved drugs too in 2012 and they worked. The difference is RP has a moral compass. He’s not looking to just cash in but actually cares. I honestly don’t think we are missing much. There is a LOT of money at stake here for a LoT of people. Truth is. We know this drugs works and is safe. The part we are missing is thinking BO really cares about anything more then money.
All true possibly but I just think it means GILD is going to wait for concrete proof in the mono trial.
My pleasure. I was very surprised at some of the negativity on this board about the presentation. My personal opinion is that it was a very positive update about how things are evolving. Also, I’ve been highly critical of NP in the past for what I thought were underwhelming communication skills. However I was pleasantly surprised with him staying on message for MOST of the time.
I listened today for the first time and while nothing was wholesale new there was a lot of new “color” provided.
- emphasized more on how excited Samsung Bio is about the company. Samsung seems to truly believe this is a diamond in the rough.
- additional details on why finding a partner for Mono has been so difficult. NP asked GILD out right why they haven’t been more aggressive. The response was basically that they are skeptical about a company trying to disrupt a very mature supply chain. I think GILD is willing to wait for the pivotal P3 to get underway before making any formal conversations of acquisition even if it means a higher price.
- more cryptic hints: NP mentioned he made a bet with their “banker” that the SP would be above $5 over the next couple months. Also, said MM did a valuation of his own on just combo and mono and got a valuation “well into the double digits”. This was the first time I’ve heard the firm provide insight into how much they think they are worth.
- multiple negations going on for potential commercialization partnerships they all include up front money.
He doesn’t need warrants or shares. He has options as part of his salary.
Thanks
What about a recording or deck? Can you share offline? DM me
Thanks. Are they getting any money upfront from Syneos?
Did you record the SH since you are listening again? Anyway you can share ?
Zeus’s can you confirm whether syneos has signed on as the commercialization partner?
Hmm I wouldn’t think disclosing that info in an invite only SH during trading hours would qualify as appropriate public disclosure.
Bee
Are you saying that a Syneos Health is the commercialization partner? Is this official like signed?
I’m confused. You’re saying you think a pre-revenue company will use excess cash to buy back shares in order to increase value on paper.... I can’t even conceive of that. They need about $50mm to get to revenue even if they get $100mm up front they would be crazy not to use that to fund everything else or just hold the cash as leverage for BO talks. Buy backs would be irresponsible without revenue.
IMO the short squeeze is coming. Probably not until after 6/12. Insiders and big investors converting warrants was a big show of confidence from the top to lead the way for others to follow. The company knows they need to convince investors something is coming soon in order for them to convert.
This transaction serves several objectives: raises capital with much less dilution, absorbs future excess share supply (as warrant holders sell shares to self fund warrant exercises), and further limits share supply with lock up period. All of these things set the stage for SP to actually respond with good news instead of hitting an endless supply of shares sell below $.55 after 6/12.
Let’s say only 30% of outstanding warrants convert (although I personally think that is low) they raise around $15mm or so with 66% less dilution then Paulson raises. It also prevents the ability for investors to rinse and repeat given the 6 month lock up and will limit supply for that time period. Compounding this impact is that obviously many warrant holders are self funding these warrant exercises, which is why SP tanked after announcement. I believe this will continue after CC unless huge news is provided. While this is hard to swallow in short term, it will be very beneficial after 6/12. As warrant holders essentially swap free trading shares for cheaper locked up shares.
I think we all knew the AS would be raised sooner or later whether a deal is in process or not. It’s just the responsible thing to do when you approach your authorized limit. As usual, we shouldn’t read into unsubstantiated implications bc it’s all BS guess work.
The frustrating aspect of this is the timing. I was just hoping they would announce the first dosing of cancer first to give us something to look forward to. No doubt this will suppress SP for the time being as there’s really no incentive to buy right now. The short term question at this point is how much of a loss are Paulson investors willing to take at the moment. As a repeat Paulson investor, I don’t see any reason to doubt the company in the longer term or to take a big loss. As soon as cancer is dosed there will be more demand. Just hold tight for a couple more weeks and buy as much below 50 as possible.
Several people here have already summed up my thoughts after today’s call very well. I was frustrated with NP and have communicated those to the company and Paulson already. He is not the guy to bring this home. Obviously, all parties involved are relieved that the new Business Development position will allow someone else to handle the outreach and sales for the company.
The only perspective I’ll add are 2 critical facts that we know at this point.
1. Mono works with 90% responders rate.
2. They have funding (dilutive or non dilutive) to get to market. Paulson is so bought in at this point given prior 16 rounds and $150mm raised to back out. They can’t walk away with the science remaining so strong.
Dilutive or non dilutive doesn’t really matter to me at this point. The two facts above mean we all make serious money. Hopefully, a deal strikes soon and the need for Paulson is limited. I take the fact that the shelf offering was voluntarily closed last week as a sign of confidence.
Cancer is just a really plausible cherry on top at this point. But doesn’t change or really even factor into my investment strategy. All that’s left is the how much and when question.
You can contact Paulson directly or go through the company for an introduction. But you have to be an accredited investor to do deals with Paulson.
1) 1.6x leveraged on liquid assets - largely bc I bought a house last year and renovated. I’m usually not this low on liquidity, but I wanted to keep building this position at the same time. My leverage will come down over time.
2) 25% or so on total assets
#3 is spot on here. Until the company has an alternative to issuing cheap shares and warrants, “smart” investors will keep going back to the well. Those investors are largely the same on iterative rounds - Paulson Investors and others. Meaning the same investors are consciously and intentionally buying more and more. As a result, SP stays suppressed just above our buy in point bc we can still take a small profit. Not bc we don’t believe in the company but bc we know we can recycle that back into the company and stock pile warrants at the next raise. We take no real risk of “missing out” bc we hold warrants.
THIS IS SO MUCH SIMPLER THAN THIS BOARD IS TRYING TO MAKE IT. The argument and paranoia that the stale SP is bc “smart” investors are able to sniff something out that you can’t is naive when you consider the fact that the company has been able to continue to raise many from the same place over so many years. The stale SP is simply the result of supply and demand. Econ 101. The only problem here is anyone with substantial money to invest is going straight to the company, instead of being force to the OTC.
The only question that is left is why hasn’t a deal been struck. No one but CYDY or BP can know that. But it probably has to do with the fact that cancer was just added to this company last fall and the full potential is unknown. NP has made it clear he wants full value and as we all know that could be astronomical.
But why would they? I use to be of the same mind set in the silence in 2017... but there is no incentive for them to give the smaller retail investors a proverbial seat at the table and publicly disclose unconfirmed facts. Yes , we want to know details on negotiations for our own trading purposes but disclosing that info doesn’t benefit the company at all. In fact it brings on unnecessary risk of setting unintentional expectations. If they say “we are close in talks with GILd” and it doesn’t work out or takes too long, then they are in a much worse place with ability to raise money from the capital markets then if they just stayed silent.
They are NOT concerned w daily SP. they are concerned with getting BP to understand their science and with getting ST cash. People on this board are not a priority and we shouldn’t be at the time period. Relax and wait.
Thanks
No fund is going to buy this stock on the OTC. Why would they, when they can get cheap shares and warrants. The reason SP is so low is that the company still needs so much more capital... no one except smaller retail investors are buying on open market, and they just don’t have the weight to push SP up and support it.
It’s not that complicated here guys. As long as the company is issuing cheap shares and warrants the SP will suffer. This is ALL about non dilutive funding now. We have the science. Anyone with millions to invest is bypassing the OTC and going straight to the company. This has been the situation for years, nothing has change and won’t until a partnership is struck. Thankfully it seems we are very close to that.
This literally happened in 2018. The company issued $5mm (10mm shares plus warrants) in convertible debt. They did a similar deal in January. Investors are noticing. We just need to be patient
SJ. Welcome and thank you for your service. Your questions are spot on. This company has had an interesting path. I have been in investing and closing following this company since late 2016. It’s been a roller coaster along the way where at times I lost trust in management and like others lost hope In their ability to bring this wonder drug to the world. You can see that my experience has been shared with others even further back than me - just look back at the volatility in SP. The big dips as well as the slow gradual declines over the last 5 years have nothing to do with the drug or trial results, but mainly to do with what appeared to me and others at the time as gross mismanagement. For example, management was largely silent or at least somewhat cryptic during 2017 and early 2018 after missing multiple deadlines it set for itself without providing clear explanation. I know, I for one was furious with this situation and traded out of the stock for a while. However, in mid-2018 or so, management finally came out and provided clear explanations IMO for the limited communication prior to. This included very complex negotiations with FDA on both combo and mono trials, changes in GvHD protocol, and the partnering with RP to move into cancer. All of the provided responses were valid and extremely encouraging. However, I fear that so many people were burned by this company and chose to walk away and maybe never heard the explanations.
Also, the steady and significant dilution over the years has allowed some high net worth investors to continuously “rinse and repeat” aggregating large amounts of warrants and selling shares into the market for decent gains. You probably noticed many on this board bemoaning these investors as they do put consistent downward pressure on the SP. Admittedly, I am one of those investors as of about 6-8 months ago. I understand the board’s frustration with this approach but it bares no real and meaningful negative impact to the final value of the company. Anyway, that’s enough from me. I will repost a link that another posted today for you of an interview last week with NP where he is asked very similar questions as you do.
Welcome to the board. One last note, this board is very active, but unfortunately has a lot of fluff talk that really is IMO a waste of time. Like Vegas parties and such. There are many worth reading. I suggest just following those people to avoid the white noise. You can DM me for the list that I find valuable if you want.
http://www.moneytalkstation.com/category/broadcasts/
NP is 200% better at interviews than he was even 6 months ago
Well said BD. I agree. At the very least the company has to prepare to take this situation as far as possible in order to have leverage in negotiations.
NP has made it ridiculously clear that he intends to dictate terms and does not intend to budge. To do that, he has to at least take initial steps to prove he is not willing to except less then the terms he seems to already be committed to in his and the boards minds.
No way you can know that. Here are facts
NP said they needed $20mm to complete BLA. They have raised somewhere between $12-$15mm YTD. Since NP said this they added a potential IND and formally starting to GvHD back up. Both require additional funds. So unless a partnership is struck in coming weeks (which is possible), I would so confidently declare that dilutive funding rounds have ended if I were you. But maybe you know something I don’t.
Haha. I promise I will stop selling as soon as long term financing issue is solve. But right now I’m buying all my shares with leverage. Too much personal risk for me to hold, but I’m happy to keep funding the company for everyone else on this board and do my part to make sure this science makes it to market. You’re welcome! ;)
I really like that answer. I’ve been wondering why they were in such a rush to get that IND in before we have a chance to really get financing in order, but this make a lot of sense.
Also, I hope everyone is taking notice at how well the SP is holding up after a new wave of share is hitting the market. Finally, some support!
Bc they have raised money outside Paulson in the last 12 months...
Pro. I think it’s time you update your handle to Leronlimab
The mood on this board definitely switches fast. Last night everyone is planning a party in Vegas, and bc of a less than $2mm raise many turn to negative Nancie’s. NOTHING has changed. Stay the course and buy what you can.
These small raises barely impact dilution. Enjoy the opportunities these raises afford us all and buy more if you truly believe in the science.
Agreed. The game is setup to benefit some more then others. Can’t blame an individual for taking advantage while they can.
Incorrect about an exclusivity agreement with Paulson. The company is free to take money from anywhere. Just FYI. I just want to correct for the record.
Deal, BD!
Pro I understand your anger and frustration (obviously others on this board do as well), but it’s not as sinister as you may want to believe. Paulson simply offers money and the company takes it bc there’s no other offers they would rather take. Remember NP said he turned down $20mm bc it was offered on worse terms.
Paulson is filling a temporary funding need. Yes it results in depressed SP - for now- but it doesn’t change the science. The Paulson raising benefits everyone buying on the secondary market as well by allowing you to continue buying at depressed prices. The SP is heavily discounted,so take advantage! This company is going to make money, how much I don’t know but we all should be excited that we get to continue buying in the 50s. One day - soon - you wil wake up to a partnership deal and be very happy.
That’s about right. But approved up to 600mm I think. Which I think will be maxed out in the near term. I would use the 600mm to be conservative in any models
Fair enough. But don’t hate the player, hate the game. ;) How about I buy you 2 drinks?