$.22 twenty two cents gap up = Take Profits MTG

In the past that has been "ring the cash register ", profit time...

A "PHENOMENAL TAX PLAN" CAN SAVE THE STOCK MARKETS

Only problem is no one has mentioned one lately.
So, be careful, as most analysts are now recommending "HOLD" vs. "FOLD".

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS DECLINE FOUR (4) WEEKS STRAIGHT

MBA: Mortgage apps barely move as purchase loan size reaches record high
Refinance apps fall even lower

April 5, 2017 Brena Swanson 2 Comments
KEYWORDS MBA MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION PURCHASE APPLICATIONS REFINANCE APPLICATIONS WEEKLY MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS SURVEY
Spring house
As the refinance demand continues to dissipate, purchase applications are setting new records.

The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that refinance applications fell even further below their eight-year low set last week.


According to data from the MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 31, 2017, the refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 42.6% of total applications from 44% the previous week, which was the lowest that figure has been in more than eight years.

Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 8.5% of total applications.

On the other side, purchase demand is on the rise, as the average loan size for purchase applications reached a survey high of $318,200.

Mortgage applications, as a whole, decreased 1.6% from one week earlier. And broken up, the Refinance Index decreased 4% from the previous week, while the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from one week earlier.

MTG & STOCK INDICES DESTRUCTION BEFORE EARNINGS SEASON

Stay away MTG AND OTHER PMI stocks until April 10th.

THE DECLINE IN MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS WILL HURT NEW PMI COMPANIES

NMIH, which barely became profitable in 2016, was living off refinance business along with ESNT. NOW IT'S DEAD OR, at 2008 levels.

"Mortgage Applications Slightly Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mar 29, 2017
CONTACT
Ali Ahmad
aahmad@mba.org
(202) 557- 2727
WASHINGTON, D.C. (March 29, 2017) - Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 24, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 44.0 percent of total applications, its lowest level since October 2008, from 45.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 8.5 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 10.8 percent from 10.9 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 11.0 percent from 10.1 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 1.0 percent from 0.9 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) decreased to 4.33 percent from 4.46 percent, with points increasing to 0.43 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $424,100) decreased to 4.26 percent from 4.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.26 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 4.24 percent from 4.33 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.57 percent from 3.68 percent, with points increasing to 0.43 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week."

BYE BYE NEW INSURANCE WRITTEN(NIW) FOR 2017

With new insurance written(NIW), drying up faster than water on black car in the sun), some Private Mortgage Insurance(PMI) companies will face challenges, as competition heat up and, profit margins decline.

"By JANN SWANSON
MORTGAGE NEWS DAILY

Refinance Share Back to 2008 Levels
Decrease Font SizeTextIncrease Font Size Mar 29 2017, 6:46AM
Mortgage applications saw a third straight decline in volume during the week ended March 24. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, was down 0.8 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous week, and 0.4 percent week unadjusted.

Applications for purchase mortgages increased during the week, but those gains were offset by further erosion in refinancing; the Refinance Index fell by 3 percent for the second consecutive week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 1 percent from the week ended March 17 and the unadjusted Index was up 2 percent. The Purchase Index was 4 percent higher than during the same week in 2016."

CORRECTION: MGIC HAS BEST DEFAULT INVENTORY IN 15 YEARS NOT 20 YEARS

From SEC 10K 2001:
Default Inventory increased by 17K at December 31, 2001 to 54.7K.

"notice inventory increased from 37,422 at December 31, 2000 to 54,653 at December 31, 2001 and pool notice inventory increased from 18,209 at December 31,2000 to 23,623 at December 31, 2001.

Included in the notice inventory was
the bulk notice inventory of 18,460 at December 31, 2001 and 7,533 at December
31, 2000.
The default rate at December 31, 2001 was 3.46% compared to 2.58% atDecember 31, 2000. Excluding bulk defaults, the default rates were 2.65% and2.19% at December 31, 2001 and 2000, respectively. The default rate on bulk
loans were 8.59% and 9.02% at December 31, 2001 and 2000, respectively. "

AS OF FEB 17' $47MM INCR. IN NET CASH FLOW FROM CURE ACTIVITY

The increase in cash in First Quarter 2017 is primarily a function of increased cures as borrowers catch up on delinquencies, as income tax income increase. In addition, more cash is held since the holiday season is over.

In addition, borrowers tend to pay delinquencies as real estate home values increase, MGIC cites this relationship as existing since they started the PMI BUSINESS IN 1957.

As of February 2017, 1667 delinquencies have been cured, leaving only 48,616 loans in the delinquent inventory. The delinquent inventory is the lowest in 20 years.

BUY MTG NOW FOR SHORT TERM PROFIT

THEN WE'LL talk about CAPITAL GAINS TAXES next.

$10.25 THEN $10 MTG PIVOT STUDIES

HOWEVER, WHY $9.9 SO FAST?

IT'S JUST CRAZY THE WAY this market is moving now!!

LOOK FOR DOW 19,000 AND MTG $9

FIRST THEY DRIVE IT UP, then they sell it like crazy to lock in profits. ..

WE ONLY NEEDED $9 FOR THE CONVERSION

THEN ERROR RATIONAL EXUBERANCE TOOK OVER.

DOW 20,000 was big! Then exaggerated activity took it way out of bounds.

Legislation is tougher, than discussions.

FEBRUARY 2017 MGIC OPS. STATISTICS NO CHANGE IN INSURANCE OUTSTANDING

WHILE, delinquencies declined to 48.6K, new insurance was essentially unchanged $182.9 billion, up $.1 billion in January.

THE MOVEMENT INSIDE A RALLY NECESSARILY CONTAINS EXCITEMENT AND THOUGHTS OF EVEN MORE RICHES

THE ELEMENTS ARE:
1) Money flow increases
2) Vision of higher prices
3) Quantum leaps and bounds
4) Momentum

ERROR RATIONAL EXUBERANCE ALWAYS PRECEDES STOCK MARKET CRASH

AS HOME AFFORDABILITY INDEX STRIKES "DECEMBER 2008"

CNBC
BY:DIANA OLICK
REAL ESTATE CORRESPONDENT

Tue, 28 Feb '17

"The spring housing market started early this year, not because of higher-than-average temperatures but because of hotter-than-average demand and overheating home prices.
This year may be the starkest example of a post-recession reality that is redefining housing as we know it.

"This spring housing market is shaping up to be another doozy for homebuyers," said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for home-listing website Trulia. "Housing affordability is the key to helping break yet another year of gridlocked inventory, but all signs are showing that homes this spring will be much less affordable than last year."

Affordability is being hit on several fronts: The foreclosure crisis is over, but it left behind an entirely new landscape for potential buyers. Entry-level homes are scarce because investors bought tens of thousands of them during the crisis and turned them into rentals. The number of single-family rentals jumped to more than 15 million, up from about 11 million in 2009, according to the U.S. Census.

Homebuilders continue to operate well below normal levels because of higher costs and a lack of labor, and thousands of construction workers left the business during the recession, never to return. Builders don't focus on entry-level homes because the margins are simply too tight, and prices for new construction are also rising at a fast clip.

What's more, credit is still tight, and the youngest cohort of buyers, the millennials, are delaying marriage and parenthood, the two biggest drivers of home ownership. The shortage of homes for sale has now pushed prices to a 30-year high, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. Rising mortgage rates only add to the pressure."

SHORT INTEREST UP FOUR(4) X TO 16.04 MILLION ON UNCERTAINTY

EVEN THOUGH, the real estate prices are peaking, uncertainties in the PRIVATE MORTGAGE INSURANCE ENVIROMENT is sending short interest staightup.

WHile MGIC INVESTMENT increased 10% in the latest period ending February 15, RADIAN was up 34%.

Based on what I read, these are the elements increasing risk:

1) Some Investment managers see inflation in housing and the affordability index is declining. Reason is, 7% y/o/y increases in US REAL ESTATE PRICES is racing past potential buyers income levels, putting potential on the sidelines.

Interest rates have been increasing for several months now, causing potential HOME BUYERS payments to disqualify their eligibility.

2) No one seems to know why FHA DELINQUENCY rate soared to 9% in Q4 2016. However, usually when people start skipping mortgage payments, either homeowners debt load exceeds debts, then delinquencies occur.

Or, some borrowers could have lost their jobs. Conceivably, there could be a pocket of recession in a particular industry and analysts have not identified the weak industry in the economy and, it's being masked by higher employment in other strong industries.

3) THE increase in foreclosures of 18% or, 70K in January 2017 could be a manifestation of the high delinquencies in Q4 2016 and lenders were moving fast to mitigate those REL loans while the markets are hot and, they can get the most money from the sale of the real estate collateral.

We'll continue surveillance on macroeconomic conditions and microeconomics too and, report back here.

SHORT INTEREST MGIC CONTINUES HIGHER UP FOUR(4) TIMES TO 16.04 MILLION ON MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

EVEN THOUGH, the real estate prices are peaking, uncertainties in the PRIVATE MORTGAGE INSURANCE ENVIROMENT is sending short interest staightup.

WHile MGIC INVESTMENT moved up 10%, RADIAN MOVED 35% higher as of February 15, 2017.

Based on what I read, these are the elements increasing risk:

1) Some Investment managers see inflation in housing and the affordability index is declining. Reason is 7% y/o/y increases in US REAL ESTATE PRICES is racing past potential buyers income levels, putting potential buyers on the sidelines.

Interest rates have been increasing for several months now, causing potential HOME BUYERS payments to disqualify their eligibility.

2) No one seems to know why FHA DELINQUENCY rates soared to 9% in Q4 2016. However, usually when people start skipping mortgage payments, either homeowners debt load exceeds debts, then delinquencies occur.

Or, some borrowers could have lost their jobs. Conceivably, there could be a pocket of recession in a particular industry and analysts have not identified the weak industry in the economy and, it's being masked by higher employment in other strong industries.
3) THE increase in foreclosures of 18% or, 70K in January 2017 could be a manifestation of the high delinquencies in Q4 2016 and lenders were moving fast to mitigate those REL loans while the markets are hot and, they can get the most money from the sale of the real estate collateral.

We'll continue surveillance on macroeconomic conditions and microeconomics too and, report back here.

SHORT INTEREST JUMPS 35.14% FOR RADIAN

SHORTS ARE MAKING A COMEBACK!

As of February 15, 2017. Short INTEREST, which had been declining for five (5) months, rose to 5.64 million.

Foreclosures increased 18% in January 2017 to 70K. That was the largest increase since November 2008. It appears shorts feeling better about shorting RADIAN AND MGIC TOO.

MGIC SHORT INCREASE JUMPED 16.72 MILLION, eclipsing RADIAN'S INCREASE.

NEW INSURANCE WRITTEN/PMI EXPECTED TO DROP IN 2017 AS HOME SALES FALL

"Highest Home-Buying Demand in Years Stifled by Tight Inventory decreases sales February 27, 2017, 10:05AM
Tight inventories are again being blamed for a downturn in home sales, this time January's ones. The National Association of Realtor's® (NAR's) Pending Home Sale Index (PHSI) declined by 2.8 percent from December, reaching the lowest level in a year. The PHSI is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts for home purchases. Those contracts are generally expected to turn into completed sales in about 60 days.

The January PHSI dipped to 106.4 from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December. The December index had originally been reported at 109.0. The index remains 0.4 percent higher than it was in January 2016, but is at the lowest level since then.

This index is beginning to exhibit the same kind of volatility that has marked new home sales in recent months. The index gained 1.6 percent in December, only partially recovering from a 2.5 percent downturn in November.

The January downturn was unexpected. Analysts surveyed by Econoday were looking for a strong kick-off for the new year, with predictions ranging from 0.3 to 1.2 percent gains. The consensus was on the high end of those estimates at 1.1 percent.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says home shoppers in January faced numerous obstacles in their quest to buy a home. "The significant shortage of listings last month along with deteriorating affordability as the result of higher home prices and mortgage rates kept many would-be buyers at bay," he said. "Buyer traffic is easily outpacing seller traffic in several metro areas and is why homes are selling at a much faster rate than a year ago. Most notably in the West, it's not uncommon to see a home come off the market within a month." NAR's report on existing home sales released last week reported a typical marketing period of 50 days in January compared to 64 days in January 2016.

According to Yun, interest in buying a home is the highest it has been since the Great Recession. Households are feeling more confident about their financial situation; job growth is strong in most of the country and the stock market has seen record gains in recent months. While these factors bode favorably for increased sales in coming months, buyers are dealing with challenging supply shortages that continue to run up prices in many areas.

"January's accelerated price appreciation (NAR put the increase at 7.1 percent year-over-year) is concerning because it's over double the pace of income growth and mortgage rates are up considerably from six months ago," said Yun. "Especially in the most expensive markets, prospective buyers will feel this squeeze to their budget and will likely have to come up with additional savings or compromise on home size or location."

NAR is projecting sales of existing homes to total about 5.57 million units this year, up 2.2 percent from the estimate of 5.45 million sales in 2016. The national median existing-home price is expected to increase around 4 percent in 2017. Last year existing sales increased 3.8 percent and prices rose 5.1 percent.

"Sales got off to a fantastic start in January, but last month's retreat in contract signings indicates that activity will likely be choppy in coming months as buyers compete for the meager number of listings in their price range," added Yun."

FORECLOSURES UP 70,4K OR 18% HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2016

BLACK KNIGHT FINANCIAL SERVICES
FEBRUARY 2017
BY:JANE SWANSON
MORTGAGE NEWS DAILY

"There were 70,400 homes placed into the foreclosure process during the month, an increase of 18 percent and the most for any month since March 2016. Despite the surge, starts were still down 2.09 percent from the previous January.

There were 481,000 properties in process of foreclosure in January, a rate of 0.94 percent of all mortgaged homes. This is a decline in the foreclosure inventory of 2,000 homes or -0.46 percent since December and a year-over-year change of -178,000 or 27.57 percent.

Foreclosure sales are calculated as a percentage of mortgages that are more than 90 days past due. The rate of 2.23 percent was down 25.51 percent from the previous month but up 2.91 percent from January 2016.

A total of 2.64 million homeowners are past due on their mortgages, including those in the process of foreclosure.

States with the highest percentages of non-current loans are Mississippi at 11.30 percent, Louisiana, 9.78 percent, and Alabama, West Virginia, and New Jersey with rates between 7.91 percent and 7.47 percent."

REFINANCE ACTIVITY IS BAD NOW, AT NOVEMBER 2008 LEVELS IN FEBRUARY 17, 2017

THE REFINANCE MORTGAGE ACTIVITY IS CRASHING IF, IT WASN'T FOR PURCHASE ACTIVITY, MORTGAGE ACTIVITY WOULD MIRROR "GREAT RECESSION" LEVELS.

MORTGAGE NEWS DAILY
"Refinancing applications had a 46.2 percent share of the total, down from 46.9 percent the week before and the lowest level since November 2008. The refinancing share has declined in every week but two since December 16.

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 11.6 percent from 11.9 percent the previous week while the VA share increased to 12.1 percent from 11.8 percent. The USDA share was 0.9 percent. down from 1.0 percent a week earlier."

JANUARY 2017 WAS ABNORMAL VOLUME AS RE BUYERS RUSHED TO LOCK LOANS BEFORE POTENTIAL RATE INCREASES

NOW, mortgage activity is dealing in February 2017, like it did in November and December 2017.

Patrick Sinks, CEO OF MGIC, has been telling analysts for several quarters, that he expect new insurance written(NIW) to decline in 2017 but, he expect the purchase to remain strong and persistently rate to increase to offset some of the decline in NIW.

WEEKLY PURCH MORTG APPS FALL 3% LOWEST SINCE NOV 2016 - MBA

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 22, 2017) - Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 17, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week to the lowest level since January 2017.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier to the lowest level since November 2016.

BE CAREFUL, TODAY'S RUN UP MAYBE INSIDE AN OVERALL BEARISH TREND FOR MTG

WE'LL KNOW IN FIVE (5) days if, the uptrend is set to continue in around five (5) days...

10 and 20 DAY MOVING AVERAGES FOR MTG BROKEN

Watch carefully as MTG approaches the fifty (50) Day Moving Average. If, MTG BREACHES THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE, a multitude of volumes could be seen. In addition, that would indicate an extreme bearish conditions.

THREE BLACK CROWS SIGNAL REVERSAL OF MTG UPWARD CLIMB OF SEVEN MONTHS

OVER THE LAST FIVE TRADING DAYS, MTG formed a "shooting star" and, three black crows candlesticks indicating strong possibly of an end to seven months uptrend.
Watch for confirmation bearish reversal trend of upward trend over next five days MTG.

NATL' ASSN REALTORS(NRA) ASK FOR FHA PREMIUM CUT TO HELP 40mil. HOMEOWNERS

Ask Trump to reinstate FHA mortgage insurance premium cut.

February 6, 2017/in Uncategorized /by Lindsay
The National Association of Realtors believes that the Trump administration’s recent decision to suspend a reduction in the Federal Housing Administration’s annual mortgage premiums will keep as many as 40,000 potential homebuyers from becoming actual homebuyers in 2017, and wants the premium cut reinstated “as soon as possible.”
Source: HousingWire Magazine

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SHORT INTEREST RAMPS UP RUSSELL 2000 (MGIC), S&P 500 (SPY), ISHARES SELECT FIN. (XLF) IN JANUARY

AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THE SHORT INTEREST IS MULTIPLYING BY NUMBERS NOT SEEN SINCE LATE SPRING 2016. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IS IT, THAT IT CAN BE SEEN IN A BROAD COVERAGE OF THE STOCK MARKETS.

The (SPY) INDEX is a replica of the S&P 500, Short interest increased by 6% or 11.2 million shares.

The (XLF) INDEX is a broad measure of financial services including insurance. The iShares Financial Select Spider short interest increased 22.9% or 14.8 million shares.

I SHARES RUSSELL 2000 of which MGIC INVESTMENT is a component saw 18.3% increase or 17.1 million shares.

MGIC INVESTMENT SHORT INTEREST increased by 12.3% or 2.6 million shares, that was the largest increase since last spring. It recorded the second increase in two periods covered in January 2017 after falling for over six months.

You can follow short interest in the markets at the WSJ DATA CENTER.

The world's largest money manager BLACKROCK-FINK, CEO warns -Dark Shadows Looming Markets

MARKETWATCH
By Matt Egan February 08, 2017 19:00PM EST

Donald Trump recently lavished praise on Larry Fink for growing the president's fortune. But the BlackRock boss isn't exactly returning the compliment.
Fink warned on Wednesday he sees "a lot of dark shadows" that could rattle global markets in the coming months. That's quite a warning, coming from the CEO of the world's largest money manager BlackRock (BLK), which controls more than $5 trillion in assets.
Fink joins a growing list of corporate leaders and Wall Street analysts to raise concerns about the timing of Trump's agenda and the markets' overly-optimistic expectations for it.

This week, Irene Rosenfeld, the CEO of Oreo maker Mondelez (MDLZ) expressed worry about "significant disruption and uncertainty" from the "backlash against globalization," and Goldman Sachs warned about the potential negative effects of restrictions on trade and immigration.
Speaking at the Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit, Fink also specifically cited the "breakdown of globalization" signaled by Brexit and Trump's election.
Fink is concerned about businesses putting major decisions on hold as they seek more clarity on the timing and details of Trump's plan to stimulate the American economy through tax cuts, infrastructure spending and regulation-busting.

ROBERT SCHILLER, HISTORIC ECONOMIST, DATA INDICATES MARKET WILL CRASH

Read this and, You will understand why:

Robert Schiller, Nobel Laureate has created an PE FOR THE S&P using average price/earnings data for over a 100 years.

"The historic P/E10 average is 16.7. After dropping to 13.3 in March 2009, the ratio rebounded to an interim high of 23.5 in February of 2011 and then hovered in the 20-to-21 range. It began rising again in late 2013 and hit an interim high of 27.0 in August of 2015. It has now reached a new interim high of 28.2".

Note: The US STOCK MARKETS went into a nosedive in August 2015.

Chart S&P 500 PE RATIO BUBBLE FEBRUARY 9, 2017

https://goo.gl/photos/GB7MGYeqg2ABtJkV9

S&P 500 PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO 28, HIGHEST SINCE INTERNET BUBBLE YR 2000

The current price earnings ratio highest since year 2000 Internet technology bubble bust.

Oh, PE RATIO 32.60 September 1, 1929 preceding "black Monday or Tuesday, October 1929.

Unfortunately, a breakdown in the bubbling S&P 500, will destabilize all US STOCK MARKETS.


Schiller historical chart of S&P 500(see guru focus for chart). THE RULES ON THIS BOARD DISCOURAGED COPY AND PASTING OTHER WEBSITES.

*EVENING STAR FORMATION DJ INDUSTRIALS Feb. 8, 2017*

HOWEVER, Trump rally is the strongest since 1928.

MTG IS SHOWING DECEPTIVE TRADING PATTERNS

UNPREDICTABLE!!

UMM no fib., no technical outline or framework...

Now investors are discounting Earnings Season

The markets are at risk due to record levels, commonsense dictates profit taking. Those left will become BAGHOLDERS.

$13.39 Book Value RADIAN December 31, 2016

EARNINGS WERE $61 MILLION FOR THE QUARTER. Radian book value increased 11% year over year.

Book value is .72.93% percent of market value. Market price of RDN IS 137% of book vale. RDN STOCK PRICE WILL DECLINE FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION BY MAY 2017. WAIT FOR STOCK ENTRY.

ANALYST'S ARE HYPING PRICE. Wait and watch.

Radian Group Reaches Analyst Target Price

BNK Invest
January 2017

After a stock reaches analyst 12 months out price target, some analysts will be paid to raise target, that way big investors can exit the stock at the blown out price without it dropping. The new investors will then become bagholders.

Tommiegun53... 1-25-17

In recent trading, shares of Radian Group, Inc. (Symbol: RDN) have crossed above the average analyst 12-month target price of $18.08, changing hands for $18.16/share. When a stock reaches the target an analyst has set, the analyst logically has two ways to react: downgrade on valuation, or, re-adjust their target price to a higher level. Analyst reaction may also depend on the fundamental business developments that may be responsible for driving the stock price higher - if things are looking up for the company, perhaps it is time for that target price to be raised.

There are 6 different analyst targets contributing to that average for Radian Group, Inc., but the average is just that - a mathematical average. There are analysts with lower targets than the average, including one looking for a price of $16.00. And then on the other side of the spectrum one analyst has a target as high as $21.00. The standard deviation is $2.2.

But the whole reason to look at the average RDN price target in the first place is to tap into a "wisdom of crowds" effort, putting together the contributions of all the individual minds who contributed to the ultimate number, as opposed to what just one particular expert believes. And so with RDN crossing above that average target price of $18.08/share, investors in RDN have been given a good signal to spend fresh time assessing the company and deciding for themselves: is $18.08 just one stop on the way to an even higher target, or has the valuation gotten stretched to the point where it is time to think about taking some chips off the table? Below is a table showing the current thinking of the analysts that cover Radian Group, Inc.:55:59 AM EDT

In recent trading, shares of Radian Group, Inc. (Symbol: RDN) have crossed above the average analyst 12-month target price of $18.08, changing hands for $18.16/share. When a stock reaches the target an analyst has set, the analyst logically has two ways to react: downgrade on valuation, or, re-adjust their target price to a higher level. Analyst reaction may also depend on the fundamental business developments that may be responsible for driving the stock price higher - if things are looking up for the company, perhaps it is time for that target price to be raised.

There are 6 different analyst targets contributing to that average for Radian Group, Inc., but the average is just that - a mathematical average. There are analysts with lower targets than the average, including one looking for a price of $16.00. And then on the other side of the spectrum one analyst has a target as high as $21.00. The standard deviation is $2.2.

But the whole reason to look at the average RDN price target in the first place is to tap into a "wisdom of crowds" effort, putting together the contributions of all the individual minds who contributed to the ultimate number, as opposed to what just one particular expert believes.

And so with RDN crossing above that average target price of $18.08/share, investors in RDN have been given a good signal to spend fresh time assessing the company and deciding for themselves: is $18.08 just one stop on the way to an even higher target, or has the valuation gotten stretched to the point where it is time to think about taking some chips off the table?

Below is a table showing the current thinking of the analysts that cover Radian Group, Inc.:

DOUGLAS HARTER, CREDIT SUISSE HAS BV AT $8.07 BY 12-31-17

I'M starting see more on D. Harter. He's an analyst at Crédit Suisse.

OK, OK.....
SO CASH USED to buyback stock is gone forever and, it lowers Shareholder's equity, which reduces book value per share.....

Over the next few years MGIC will use cash to buyback stock, which will drain cash flow and lower the book value of MGIC INVESTMENT.

DOUGLAS HARTER, CREDIT SUISSE HAS BV AT $8.07 BY 12-31-17

I'M starting see more on D. Harter. He's an analyst at Crédit Suisse.

OK, OK.....
SO CASH USED to buyback stock is gone forever and, it lowers Shareholder's equity, which reduces book value per share.....

Over the next few years MGIC will use cash to buyback stock, which will drain cash flow and lower the book value of MGIC INVESTMENT.

DOES ANYONE KNOW WHY BOOKVALUE DOWN Q4 $7.58 TO $7.48/share?

It's has to be associated with $425 millions bond issued in August 2016, I believe.