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well that's equivalent to a 50 million market cap.
which would be way undervalued.
buy hey...it tends to get way undervalued.
holding 40k shares.
10 to 1 R/S...That'll make it a real buy at $0.50
unfortunately I am.
but I'm not to concerned due to this.
http://marcellusdrilling.com/2017/02/titan-energy-puts-494k-appalachian-acres-up-for-sale/
I think off shore is way to risky.
Only doing land based.
I'm actually have a court appearance in Texas cause Linn energy didn't let me participate in the rights offering
on April 27 I argue my case
Chief United States Bankruptcy Judge David R. Jones
http://www.txs.uscourts.gov/content/chief-united-states-bankruptcy-judge-david-r-jones
I get the hint that the judge will grant my motion.
i guess I don't much care about this board anymore until I buy in heavy at 0.06...or 50 million market cap...
so say whatever weird stuff you like.
That's the price Blackrock, Gramercy & the Chinese paid.
You might want to consider your low price target in terms a Market Cap.
Before the deal BAA traded around a market cap of (50 million) coresponding to about $0.18.
After the deal $0.18 would be about 150 million market cap.
At some point afterwards there may be a dip in gold. Perhaps BAA will once again hit the 50 million market cap mark
That would correspond to approximately $0.06 given the current share structure.
There will likely be share consolidation (R/S).
There are a lot of other really cheap miners out there with world class operations in the mean time.
Banro has been pretty disappointing. I recall looking thoroughly at EGI and GSS and determining that BAA was the better bet. Only saving grace is that I was able to book a small profit of about 5k...that's nothing considering that I was up as much as 100k on two occasions. But I guess if your shooting for a grand slam....it doesn't always work out.
Geo-politically and geographically BAA has always been challenged.
Geo-politically I'm pretty hardcore on certain attributes of society. That's all I'll ever say unless you take me up on that date.
0.10 a share is what they paid. That's about where I'll add if we get there.
Sure...but BAA will always trade at a discount due to geopolitical risk.
if book is around 0.40 we'll be lucky to get there.
Ok. I'll take your word for it.
Well then you're wrong. 366.667% more shares.
that's a percentage of dilution.
You're looking at it as percentage of equity ownership.
A few days ago the 300 million shares out standing had 100% of the equity...now those shareholders will have 30% of the equity.
We can forget about our dreams of over $1 for at least a few years...maybe in five years if things go perfectly.
New book value is going to be around $0.38 to $0.40 until they pay off all their debt.
350% increase in share count is what I meant.
previously they had 300 million shares now they will have 1.1 billion shares.
1,100 / 300 = 3.6667
so it is a 366.67% increase in the number of shares.
I call that 3.5x dillution...
so yeah...a 350% dilution. 350% increase in share count.
semantics!
Not me...
but if you want to go on that date you can tell me all about those political opinions.
Yeah...350% dilution sure limits the upside potential.
I bought some back just for the long term possibility they could develop the whole gold belt...but this is very very long term thinking.
Real bummer here. glad I diversified.
You're lucky that 30% of the equity you had yesterday remains. I frankly thought it was going to be 10% or 5%
You could still turn a profit here.
I bought 100k shares today. I'll by more if it hits 0.10
They paid about 0.09 a share.
$70.8 M / 800 M shares = 0.0885
he could have sold them at any time after he left without reporting it cause he was no longer an insider.
my guess is that he owns zero shares now.
Yeah...it's not a good deal for shareholders.
That's why I only repurchased 1/4 the amount of shares I once had.
It's not a core investment of mine anymore.
it's on par with the other eight miners I own.
like an option.
that was pre-existing.
the preferred shares are a debt - equity instrument. They have converted it all to equity and left the original equity holders with 30% of the new equity.
Not what you were hoping for...but I thought this was going to be catastrophic.
The Idea of $1 or $2...not going to happen.
book value is about $0.39 now.
it's a lot better than I thought they would get.
***Eliminated 70.8 million of debt***.
with respect to the Exchangeable Preferred Shares, the sum of the face value of the Exchangeable Preferred Shares (being approximately US$43.1 million) plus any accrued but unpaid dividends; and
with respect to the Gold-Linked Preferred Shares, the sum of the “Liquidation Preference” value (as defined in the articles that contain the attributes of such shares) at January 20, 2017 (being approximately US$27.7 million) of the Gold Linked Preferred Shares plus any accrued but unpaid dividends up to the implementation date of the Recapitalization not otherwise included in the Liquidation Preference value.
This quarter is going to be really bad due to the lower production.
Unless they substantially reduced operating costs.
The streaming is 8.5% of namoya and variable on Twangiza between 9.5 and 12% from what I recall.
It wasn't mentioned in the release...so it stays the same.
The Idea BAA going to $5 or even $2...forget about it.
on the face of it...seems like this buys them a couple of years to get their act together.
They were able to salvage some value for shareholders (30% of current equity). but the Idea of this going to $5 or even $2...forget about it.
Book value is about 0.40 now.
about 250% away.
I think the only reason I jumped back in is cause I know the company so well. Frankly I think there could be more down side here.
"Existing shareholders, together with existing warrants and options not cancelled, will in aggregate retain approximately 30% of the Common Shares of the Company on a fully-diluted basis."
yeah...it's pretty bad. That's why I only bought back 1/4 my origional stake of 400k shares.
They didn't even get the streaming requirements reduced and that was really pinching them.
book value is likely to be about 0.40
1.28*.30 = 0.384
Bought 100,000 shares at 0.1507
Much better deal than I thought they'd get.
Yes.
I wasn't looking for a date. I wouldn't do that.
I was just curious.
It's always good to have help getting a good picture what your dealing with in investments such as Banro. And getting to know more about the investor base.
So give me the data.
It was just food for thought.
You've got to be a girl.
How old are you?
Are you cute?
What state do you live in?
I hope BAA does just fine. Again food for thought.
Myopia & Confirmation Bias...remember all. It's about making money not being stubbornly determined that one particular Idea will work.
Best of luck.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=127950201
Steady state target production for Namoya is 9k per month. At Twangiza Based on previous quarters it was producing 10k+ oz per month.
Twangiza was so-posed to rebound this Q.
Namoya was soposed to trend higher based on the stacking rates that were given in Q3
It's really about the total cost of sales. The impact of the streaming in combo with the lower POG and the lower production.
Add in the need for the new crushing equipment.
They can't operate efficiently at break even cash flow. This Q's production in combo with the totality of circumstances....
The last production report was pretty rough. That's why I decided to take a wait and see approach.
Well, I remember in 2015 when they got the deal.
I was holding before the deal. After the deal the stock popped and then retraced to the same price.
This happened several times over the past two years.
Why should I hold all that risk when something has to happen within the next 45 days.
It could just pop and retrace.
Then I will not have held all that risk at a very vulnerable time.
I sold half my BAA at 0.19 and bought EGO and Nog at 2.70 & 2.35 respectively. They are both up over 30%...BAA dipped and then went back up to 0.19.
I sold the rest of my BAA and bought KGC and AUY, Very solid major miners that are under valued.
Why hold all that risk with tens of thousands of dollars for the next 45 days when the production report was really bad.
You have to keep in mind I'm responsible for 7 people...I've got five kids. So I have broader responsibilities too.
Even taking that out of the equation though.
I see a few negative signals here.
And you know I've studied a lot of distressed companies.
So I think I'll just wait and see when I will buy back in.
Perhaps it will be too late and I'll miss it.
Most likely I will be back.
The production report was not good....
Well then you well know that you're taking a lot of short term risk here.
they need to roll basically all their debt in a few short months.
How long have you been following the company?
My point is more towards the totality of circumstances that affects this company.
EPS is irrelevant now.
ANV reported positive EPS the same Q they filed.
Run the numbers on their Total cost of sales based on last quarters production.
The debt is a big burden.
Well if they are cash flow negative (or neutral is more likely) on the total cost of sales at current gold prices.
Do you think that may affect how the "re-fi" unfolds.
By the way some miners are using total cost of sales now. In addition to AISC.
AISC is not inclusive of interest, streaming or G&A.
Hey man.
you might want to bust out a paper and pencil and look at baa total cost of sales based on the last production report...
I'm just saying...take a look.