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"Canadian mining companies turn bullish on Congo, despite its violence":
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/canadian-mining-companies-lured-by-congos-mineral-wealth/article34344168/
Banro is a producer, developer, and explorer. If exploration can increase production (at Namoya) and/or lay the ground for an eventual third mine, it'll be well worth it.
Pre-refi announcement price included bankruptcy risk, which has been removed. Since price post-refi announcement has remained basically flat, on low volume, I'd guess that the stock is fairly priced, with moves up from here depending on good news or the price of gold. If the refi can expand production at lower costs, as well as further explore and develop its other properties, it could easily pay for itself or more.
On the dollar-yen relationship remarked on before:
How much of the current price was due to the debt-repayment issues and the threat of BK? The other issues have been political instability in Kinshasha (the DRC is also a Banro partner) and a sagging price for gold. Resolve these issues and we're back in the .30's and .40's, if not much higher, it seems to me. Yes, people will likely take profits going back up. Price can be as much a matter of sentiment and expectation as value (as BAA's low book-value ratio, even with dilution, shows).
Gold mining is a capital-intensive business. Until longer-term profitability is achieved, dilution is inevitable, one way or another, it seems to me.
Investors are fleeing the Euro, Pound, Yen, and Yuan to the dollar as the only safe harbor. A rising dollar doesn't mean gold is worth less, but rather simply that the dollar is worth more. If the dollar also falls, however, only gold will be left to flee to.
Nope, just looking at putting more money on a silver miner, AXU, as an option. Buy and hold, occasional profit-taking. I got burned trading on margin in the Tech Crash - never again.
Or I might beef up my SAND holding a bit.
In a difficult environment, problems and delays will happen. That they happen is less of a concern than what is done to overcome them.
The long-term case for Banro is still the same - they are still sitting on the richest lode of gold in the world, with the vast majority of their claim unexplored. The case against is that if it was easy to get, it would have already been got.
I bought more at $.20. If I'd been a little more patient, I could have maybe hit $.18, but that's hindsight. I've got some more dry powder, but will probably put that on silver (AXU).
People fleeing the Pound, Euro, Yen, and Yuan for the Dollar. So, what will they buy with their dollars? U.S. real estate or...gold.
"providing diversification in the offtake and refining arrangements employed"
"be used to support current operating activities at Namoya and Twangiza, for H2 2016 projects including underground exploration programs and stacking expansion at Namoya, and for general corporate purposes."
If this means increased production (through offtake/refining diversification, additional operating funds, and stacking expansion) then it should more than pay for itself.
Buying Dore bars gives Baiyin flexibility to refine pure bars in weights/dimensions unique to the Asian market:
CATEGORIES OF GOLD BARS
BAA not the only gold miner down today:
AUMN -4.55%
MDW -2.32%
BAA -2.02%
NSU -1.46%
VGZ -1.25%
Considering BAA's volatility, a 2% swing is pretty insignificant.
CountingPips.com: "Banro ticks most of the boxes when looking for a winning junior mining stock"
http://countingpips.com/2014/08/miner-spotlight-banro-corp-bounces-20-after-securing-35m-funding/
“What we are interested in buying are those on the world gold mining belt with big sizes."
If you haven't sold them, you still got them. My shares are in a lock box until we hit at least $1.
Sell the rumor, buy the news?
No reason to move up without good news. At least the downward slide looks to have been arrested. Current pattern could be accumulation - with selling at .23 capping the price and buying around .225 accumulating positions.
Positive news (non-dilutive plan), BAA goes up. Short of that, BAA continues to drift down. Negative news (dilutive plan, even if only by the market's interpretation)...
A price/book ratio of .14 usually means:
1) The company is virtually worthless (with book value unrealizable), or
2) The company is extremely undervalued.
The first is clearly not the case with BAA, which means the latter is almost certainly the case. The only question is the degree of undervaluation, with the uncertain size of the "eastern Congo" discount (likely larger than most assume).
Short-term money is controlling the stock price right now. If truly long, what's needed is patience, which means whether it is up or down today, tomorrow, next week, next month, even next year, doesn't really matter. My BAA shares are in a lock box that won't be opened until one, two, even three years from now. I might add to it, but won't start selling until I've notched a 100% gain (about $0.90 right now for me).
Someone driving the price down to ride it back up?
In for a penny, in for a pound of gold. Added 6,000 @ .2299. Cost basis now under .45.
General sell-off to cash - gold and gold miners caught in the down draft, but should float back up as cash moves to gold.
Michael Durose, (M.Sc, P.Geo), co-founder of HanOcci Group:
Not sure about "instant multi-bagger," but I'll be pleased with laying the foundation (financial and technical) for broad progress toward, and steady price appreciation from, completing not just two, but four mines, including the needed hydro-electric project, over the next several years.
Difference Between NYSE and AMEX:
http://finance.zacks.com/difference-between-nyse-amex-3869.html
For a company building a mine, debt is like water and cash is like oxygen.
"If Q2 were to be a better quarter the market would rise before news. It's not happening."
Up 6% last three days. Up 7% last month.
Not allowing a large enough error-margin on the fines was likely a cost-cutting decision by Banro management. This is not a matter of a project not operating to spec, but simply of the specs themselves falling short.
MDM designed a plant with a set throughput/capacity: 2 Mtpa. Excess fines effectively reduce that.
Interesting wink and a nod.
Note their previous comment:
Goldman Sachs now predicting $1200 for gold by end of 2014, up from their previous prediction of $1066, a 13% revision. $1200 is the price of gold being assumed by Banro in its financials.
See: http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/07/goldman-gold-prices/
So, how long before they up that prediction to $1300? $1400?
"KCA...documenting everything done wrong the first time."
I doubt that is or will be one of their charges. Job #1 should be correcting current plant shortfalls in the most cost effective and timely way possible.
That of course will necessarily highlight shortcomings in the current plant design. Hard to say, however, who was doing whose bidding. Did MDM sell previous management a bill of goods, or did that management push for risky cost-cutting?
That doesn't mean that Banro's lawyers won't be going over every scrap of paper, every e-mail...
Actually very good news:
Yahoo Finance dumping Seeking Alpha!
See: http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Yahoo!+Finance+and+Seeking+Alpha+Part+Ways/9690774.html
Good news in that PAL has been the victim of several sensationalist one-sided drive-by bash attacks this year by SA contributor "Fun Trading", sending the stock price reeling:
6/27: 18% drop (.34 to .28) ("Collision with Reality")
4/6: 38% drop (.48 to .30) ("Possible to Avoid Bankruptcy?")
2/12: 11% drop (.35 to .31) ("Death Spiral")
PAL has not been the only target of what is illegal stock manipulation. According to an article in The Deal Pipeline:
"Paid stock promotions, masquerading as investment opinion articles and blogs, have been popping up on the company news pages of Yahoo! Finance, the stock research website Seeking Alpha and, some observers suspect, on the website of Forbes magazine. Promotions whose authors are not identified or who don't disclose their compensation, or that are not grounded in fact, can under SEC regulations, be illegal."
See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/abc-news-reports-seeking-alpha-132900914.html
Seeking Alpha: Good riddance. Although Seeking Alpha is trying to spin being dumped by Yahoo Finance, it is pretty clear that the move is due to SA stock manipulators sullying the Yahoo Finance brand.
Terblanche was one of the certifying agents signing BAA's 4/15/2013 public offering prospectus. See:
http://www.cnsx.ca/cmsAssets/docs/Filings/2013/BAA.PR.A_141005_finalprospectus.pdf
Price/book ratio = 0.14, which is insanely low. The next lowest in my watch list of 35 some gold miners is 0.42 for ANV (3 X BAA's!), a company being sued by shareholders for having "made materially false and/or misleading statements and failed to disclose materially adverse factors regarding its financial performance and future prospects."
Price/book ratios:
BAA 0.14
ANV 0.42
IAG 0.48
CDE 0.49
AUQ 0.57
KGC 0.76
One week is plenty of time to come up with a rough outline. If two weeks, that's still before earnings. I don't see BAA sitting on any positive news, in that no news will likely be interpreted negatively.
If KCA is onsite on Monday, I think we could get the broad outline of a plan going forward, but not financing details, by the end of next week. No news will only continue to weigh the share price down.
$1340 is not a big stake, so more wading than diving in. Even so, I dropped my cost basis by close to five cents. I'm reserving a similar amount pending KCA's plan and BAA's financing details.
Five possibilities:
1) Lower price tag and shorter timeline. Double plus.
2) Lower price tag or shorter timeline. Plus.
3) Higher price tag and shorter timeline or lower price tag and longer timeline. Neutral.
4) Higher price tag or longer timeline. Minus.
5) Higher price tag and longer timeline. Double minus.
KCA is charged with achieving 1) or 2) or why bring them in at all.