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IMHO, the fact that they only raised 0.6 million most likely indicates that non-pp money will probably be coming in shortly.
If and when that happens, the drilling required by EXIM can start.
Fingers crossed...
Yes. I also approached JIm Sims with what Mark had said. Jim then corrected Mark's statement via the e-mail posted by Jeunke on June 6th. Here it is again:
Sorry, should have said 9 months instead of 12.
gwm, with all due respect, but it was you that started wasting everyone's time by making a statement that was factually wrong:
Your suggestion that financing by EXIM cannot happen this year because it will take 12 months to finalize and evaluate the additional drilling that EXIM has requested, is not supported by any facts or statements by management.
What has been said both in the webcall and by Jim (on June 6th, see post 112912) is the following:
- What has bee requested by EXIM is additional drilling to convert a portion of the probable reserves to proven reserves.
- This additional drilling has been estimated to take 12 weeks in the field.
- In addition, the follow-on resource and reserve update analysis needs be completed by independent consultants and EXIM will have to review this analysis.
- My personal guess is, that will take another 4 to 6 weeks (but I don't really know).
- Other elements of the new FS, such as updated engineering for the improved process flow sheet and the railveyor/electrified approach to the mine, have been estimated by Scott to take up to 9 months (with the potential to be done quicker).
- All of these other elements have NOT been requested by EXIM.
Therefore, it is still realistic that EXIM will grant a huge debt loan package in 2024, IF (and it is a big IF) the drilling can start within the next few weeks.
Stark, I understand and share your frustration.
However, let's not loose sight of what has been done during the last few years and months to improve this project very significantly. Just to mention a few:
- higher grades, higher quality products and thus higher revenues from all of our three "classic" critical minerals Niobium, Scandium and Titanium
- addition of rare earths, which highly diversifies the product portfolio and makes the entire project much more economically robust and profitable
- potential for a huge decrease in capex and opex with the new railveyor system and mine design
I believe we will be absolutely delighted when we see all these aspects combined and underpinned by hard economic data in an updated FS. That this is likely to happen in 2025 instead of this year is very annoying.
I remain hopeful that 2024 will still be the year where we see major financing coming in, which would significantly improve our share price and might even make the start of production possible before the new FS, maybe before the end of this year. In addition, we might see some nice offtake agreements for rare earths and/or Scandium, to make the waiting more bearable.
Leaving EXIM aside, what happened to the Stellantis deals (offtake and equity investment) that Mark had expected to be finalized more than half a year (6 months!!!) ago?
After all these months, it is even totally possible that the talks with Stellantis are going nowhere and they will have to do another toxic financial deal with Yorkville or some other shark, or even raise money via a huge PP, diluting our shares even further.
Or does anyone believe that there is actually some competitive tension between several investors to finally board this sinking ship (pps wise)?
From what we recently heard, the sequence of events will very likely be as follows:
1. It seems obvious that they need additional financing before they can even start the drilling EXIM has requested.
2. ?The actual drilling will take about 12 weeks, according to Jim‘s email.
3. ?They will then have to evaluate the drilling results and incorporate them into their model. That will take at least another couple of weeks, let’s say 4 weeks.
4. EXIM will then have to evaluate the results and the updated model. Let’s just assume that will take another 4 weeks.
That means we are talking about a 20 week or 5 month timeframe (or so) before possible news from EXIM. And that timeframe hasn’t even started yet, due to lack of cash to start the drilling.
Everyone has their own opinion, but for myself, I have given up hope that we will be seeing a final EXIM commitment before the US elections and possibly not even this year.
Thanks, I asked Jim a similar question:
Correct, that’s what they told us.
That being said, I am more confused with regard to when to expect financing than before the webcast. I am readying myself for further delays into next year.
Also, considering the fact that EXIM has recently requested additional information on reserves and other stuff (need to relisten to Scott‘s last remarks re timing), and Scott and his team are compiling these data right now, and EXIM then will need to review these data, I believe it’s highly unlikely that we will be seeing a final EXIM commitment before the election. And then who knows what will happen…
All in all, the project is being made much better by recent developments, but financing and start of construction in 2024 seems highly unlikely. Many more opportunities to pick up cheap shares for the optimists; much more ground for frustration for the long time shareholders (like me).
That’s how I understood it as well. 9 months would make it first quarter 2025. That’s unbelievable!
You really have to be wondering why they have time for fluff like that while they should be spending 24/7 looking for financing…
Putz and all, it’s totally clear that all equity conditions must be met simultaneously, as there is an „and“ between the sixth and seventh condition.
They will have to come up with some cash at the beginning of June…
It would be awesome, if NB gets a deal with Stellantis that looks somewhat like that:
A significant offtake agreement, with 100-200 million being paid upfront under a Prepayment Arrangement, and an Equity Investment for another 100-200 million, but only after the new FS and EXIM loan have been announced, i e at a much higher pps. That would soooo sweeeeet!
Thanks for that.
And congratulations to your year of bearth, it‘s the best.
I have a question to fellow holders of NIOBW options:
I am holding some few thousand NIOBW options in my tastytrade account. I was wondering whether, if I ever want to exercise these options, I would need the funds to buy the NB shares in my account? Or is it possible to deduct the purchasing price for the shares from the profits I would be making, if the share price at the time of exercise is much higher than the exercise price?
Also: Does anyone from outside the US (I am German) know where the profits from such a transaction would have to be taxed? All I have is my American tastytrade account. I have no IRS number or any such thing.
Thanks for any feedback and helpful answers in advance!
I found this timeline for EXIM procedures quite interesting.
https://www.bladesintl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Critical_Path_EXIM_Project_Finance.pdf
It applies to Foreign Project Financing, which is not the case with Niocorp. However, I think the critical path shown on these slides is more or less the same here and can be indicative of the timeframe that is to be expected between the "Preliminary Project Letter (Phase I)" and the "Final Eximbank Board Approval". My best guess is we might be 2-4 months away from final clarity on the EXIM front. Fingers crossed!
Thanks Walter, that sounds very positive.
From what you picked up in Belgium, when do you think the FS will (finally) be released?
Also: Did anyone confront management and ask for an explanation why the FS was expected „as early in 2023 as possible“ more than one year ago and now, approaching the middle of 2024, it still is not finished???
Yes, I fully expect my children to retire early, in 20-30 years, on the NB shares they will probably inherit from me.
At the 11:10 minute of January‘s investor update, Mark said that it was a conservative estimate that the Stellantis deals would be signed in the first half of 2024.
Don’t worry AO. I put T&T on ignore a long time ago.
If a Stellantis deal was „imminent“, I assume some people would know something and the share price would be going up instead of dropping like a stone.
Maybe the opposite is true, the Stellantis deal (that had been expected months ago) has finally failed and we are the last ones to hear about it.
Light at the end of the tunnel.
It would be interesting to hear whether the sale of (a part of) the company is still an option that management is pursuing.
Yes, just read the PR. Hopefully this trend continues and we start seeing an uptrend in the share price.
You read the first few words of this PR
„NioCorp Joins With Major Automotive Manufacturers„
and start to celebrate that they finally secured financing via a deal with Stellantis. But then reality sinks and in and it’s another fluff PR, even a little desperate if you ask me…
Thanks for sharing that, Walter. Mark sounds a bit fatalistic to me, not the tone of a CEO with a clear path to success in his head.
Yes, no use fretting about the past. With Stellantis and EXIM in the pipeline, probably about to materialize in the first half of 2024, plus an updated FS, we might finally reach the promised land.
And if that happens, all critical investors (even me) will quickly forget the SPAC failure a year ago as well as Mark‘s false promises over the past years.
I was travelling in the train and couldn’t get every word. But if I understood correctly, Mark said that they very conservatively expect the Stellantis deals to be finalized by the end of the second quarter of 2024.
I am wondering what’s holding up the Stellantis deal(s). Does anyone with a closer connection to management have any idea what might be going on? God, all this waiting eventually WILL drive me crazy, though some would argue it already HAS.
Possibly. Jim Sims stated a week ago that they were in the process of raising money to finalize the new F.S.
That’s what I assumed as well. But not according to Jim Sims, who stated as follows a few days ago:
Thanks a lot Chico, for your tremendous contribution to this board and for regularly sharing management‘s responses to your well informed questions.
From Jim‘s most recent replies the sequence of events appears to be that
- first we need additional funding
- second the updated F.S. will have to be completed using these funds.
So in other words: We shouldn’t expect an updated F.S. anytime soon…
As we are very close to our 5 year low, it is very likely that better times are ahead of us. Question is, how much better? Let’s hope for a game changing 2024 for all the longs here on this board.
Happy new year to all of you longs!
PLEASE, put this user on ignore. It's utterly frustrating to see that sensible people like you constantly reply to his/her BS.
I agree, Walter, that this project has become much bigger than what we anticipated 10 years ago.
But don’t you also think that it HAD to become much bigger to make it financially feasible and attract debt and equity investors? I think that certainly a pure niobium play, and probably also a niobium scandium play were not able to attract the 1.x billion investment it needed.
Thanks Walter
It would be awesome, if NB gets a similar deal with Stellantis: A significant offtake agreement, with 100-200 million being paid upfront under a Prepayment Arrangement, and an Equity Investment for another 100-200 million, but only after the new FS and EXIM loan have been announced, i e at a much higher pps. That would soooo sweeeeet!
I have a question regarding a potential equity position by Stellantis in NB:
If they want to invest, let’s say, 200 million dollars US, wouldn’t that mean that at the current share price, nearly 70 million new shares would have to be issued?
FACT is, we just don’t know until any or all deals have been signed. FACT also is, so far all the debt and equity deals, though highly anticipated by management, have failed.