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Commencement of Drilling of Prospect S Well, Namibia
http://www.chariotoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Commencement-of-Drilling_Chariot-Oil-Gas-Limited.pdf
Prospect S offshore Namibia
29% chance of success
300mmbbls net to Chariot
Billion Barrel upside potential
367 million total shares
Current shareprice 8p (MC: GBP 30 million)
Super excited!
A valuation of US$4/bbl would be worth 248p/sh (+3,000%)
What's your SP estimate in the success case? (LSE:CHAR)
Poll:
#CHAR Historic low drill costs, however Brent Crude Oil rocketing towards previous highs. If prospect $ is a success what's your SP estimate in the success case? https://t.co/0Ii34XOYQz
— BiG $ (@TexDrilla) September 26, 2018
📈 Prospect $ 459mmbbls
📈 Chariot 65%
📈 Spud Oct 2018 🌞
📈 367m shares (USD/GBP 0.72)
Poseidon underway - at location in 24 hours
with spudding of the well expected shortly after.
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/205961/drilling-set-to-begin-shortly-at-chariot-oil-gas-prospect-s-well-offshore-namibia-205961.html
GLA
Reckon they will spud next week. Cormorant had a 15% chance of success, prospect S has 29%. Chariot O&G is targeting a different prospect type & age - results of Cormorant do not impact 29% chance of success we have on prospect S which has been derisked by the discovery of light oil from nearby Wingat well. Targeting 300mmbbls net to Chariot (65%) with historic low drill costs & Brent Crude Oil rocketing towards previous highs. If prospect S is a success what's your SP estimate in the success case?
#CHAR Historic low drill costs, however Brent Crude Oil rocketing towards previous highs. If prospect $ is a success what's your SP estimate in the success case? https://t.co/0Ii34XOYQz
— BiG $ (@TexDrilla) September 26, 2018
📈 Prospect $ 459mmbbls
📈 Chariot 65%
📈 Spud Oct 2018 🌞
📈 367m shares (USD/GBP 0.72)
Looks like Poseidon on the move to Cormorant
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:14.3/centery:-22.7/zoom:10
ATD: 2018-09-02 12:16 ETA: 2018-09-03 06:00
I reckon spud of Big "S" not before mid October, potential newsflow during Oct/Nov:
• Spud of Cormorant
• H1 2018 results
• Update on back-in option with Shell Mauritania
• Video presentation on Namibia drilling program
• Investor conference call on impact of Cormorant
• Farmout or M&A Namibia/Morocco/Brazil
• Cormorant results (different prospect type & age)
• Handing over of Poseidon drillship & anouncement of spud date
• ICE, Cape Town (4 November – 7 November)
• Africa Oil Week (5 November – 9 November)
GLA
Looks like Poseidon on the move to Cormorant
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:14.3/centery:-22.7/zoom:10
ATD: 2018-09-02 12:16 ETA: 2018-09-03 06:00
GLA
I have no idea, only saying their 10% share in Cormorant is worth C$86m (unrisked NPV10 US$5.4/bbl) equally to C$0.13 per share.
Report: Unrisked valuation for little Cormorant US$5.4/bbl (3.5c/sh)
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/c8ce19146fdeb5b5892b7679b/files/e4a7aad0-5019-4113-a4a9-b459e60822c8/Cannacord_Genuity_Namibia.pdf
Some interesting Points from the Report
• Unrisked valuation for Big “S” is US$5.3/bbl (338p/sh +3,655%)
• Unrisked valuation for Cormorant is US$5.4/bbl (3.5c/sh +288%)
• 4 wells to be drilled operated by Tullow, Chariot, Total, Shell
• “S” different prospect type to Cormorant - independance of risk
• 29% chance of success for “S”; 15%-20% for Cormorant
• Chariot targeting same Source & Reservoir derisked by HRT wells
Report: Unrisked valuation for Big “S” US$5.3/bbl (338p/sh)
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/c8ce19146fdeb5b5892b7679b/files/e4a7aad0-5019-4113-a4a9-b459e60822c8/Cannacord_Genuity_Namibia.pdf
Some interesting Points from the Report
• Unrisked valuation for Big “S” is US$5.3/bbl (338p/sh +3,655%)
• Unrisked valuation for Cormorant is US$5.4/bbl (3.5c/sh +288%)
• 4 wells to be drilled operated by Tullow, Chariot, Total, Shell
• “S” different prospect type to Cormorant - independance of risk
• 29% chance of success for “S”; 15%-20% for Cormorant
• Chariot targeting same Source & Reservoir derisked by HRT wells
GLA
According to analyst 4 wells to be drilled
Namibia heating up indeed!
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/high-hopes-for-namibia-to-be-next-big-oil-hotspot-with-new-exploration-push-about-to-begin
Sharp adds: ‘Two wells will be drilled in the central area offshore Namibia (Walvis Basin) followed by two in the south (Orange Basin). Drilling is expected to start in September and, including rig movements, is likely to continue until the end of the first quarter 2019. It is the first two wells that are likely to be of most E&P interest.’
Must be either Shell or Total in Orange Basin?
Ocean Rig Poseidon on its way to Cormorant
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:713290/zoom:10
…little Cormorant ~350km away from Walvis Bay @ 5knots I reckon arrival by tomorrow midnight ~34 days to drill then passing on Poseidon drillship to Chariot for October drill of BIG "S" 459mmbbls pmean resources, Chariot Operator with 65% ownership, High Chance of success 29% due to Wingat & Murombe wells having derisked Source & Reservoir, 2.4bnbbls follow on potential, FinnCap assigned 173p per share in the success case (current shareprice 9.5p). At US$5/bbl BIG "S" would be even worth 318p per share (+3,247%).
Ocean Rig Poseidon on its way to Cormorant
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:713290/zoom:10
…Cormorant ~350km away from Walvis Bay
@ 5knots I reckon arrival by tomorrow midnight
"Tullow to start Drilling next week, then Chariot"
https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/ocean-rig-in-talks-to-reactivate-warm-stacked-rigs-as-inquiries-hit-2012-high/
(Posted on August 9, 2018) “Ocean rig currently has contracts for three rigs, with Ocean Rig Skyros on a long-term deal in Angola with Total, Leiv Eiriksson semi-sub in Norway with Lundin till mid-December, and recently secured deals for Ocean Rig Poseidon drillship which will next week start drilling for Tullow and then for Chariot, both in Namibia.”
GLA
"Tullow to start Drilling next week, then Chariot"
(Posted on August 9, 2018) “Ocean rig currently has contracts for three rigs, with Ocean Rig Skyros on a long-term deal in Angola with Total, Leiv Eiriksson semi-sub in Norway with Lundin till mid-December, and recently secured deals for Ocean Rig Poseidon drillship which will next week start drilling for Tullow and then for Chariot, both in Namibia.”
Fully funded to drill "S", however partnering process ongoing in Namibia, Brazil & Morocco with the potential to add significant cash to current position of ~US$30 million!
GLA!
"173p (US$2.25) per share in the success case"
Chariot Oil & Gas CEO Larry Bottomley Presents to investors at the Oil Capital Conference (June 2018)
18:58: "Prospect S… finnCap assigned 23p/share risked on that prospect… in the success case that rises to 173p/share…"
20-bagger potential on prospect "S"!
November 2018 imo - now is the time to partner and generate some significant cash to advance our exploration programme..
...we currently own 100% of our license in Brazil, 75% of our license in Morocco and 65% of our license in Namibia - partnering process underway, for comparison PCL sold 10% of its Namibian license for US$7.7 Million, in 2013 we farmed out 35% of our license in Mauritania for US$26 million - any farmout deal should have a great impact on Shareprice pre drilling in November..
fingers crossed, GLA!
Better sell Dempsey Tulainyo-style and concentrate on Namibia..
10% of 1,300mcf/d sold for US$3/mcf makes US$390/d or US$142,350/y. For comparison we've sold 10% of our Namibian license for US$7.7 million without having discovered anything. At a rate of 1,300mcf/d we will have to produce and sell gas for 54 years to achieve revenues amounting to US$7.7 million...
Pancontinental sells its share in Tulainyo for A$1.3m
Pancontinental Signs Agreement to Sell US subsidiary (29 June 2018)
Pancontinental signed an agreement with Raven Energy Limited to sell them its 40% share in US subsidiary Gas Fields LLC (which holds the Tulainyo Gas project) in exchange for a cash consideration of A$300k and a share consideration of A$1m (555,555,555 shares in Raven Energy @ 0.0018/share). In addition there is A$10.5m upside potential payable to Pancontinental if certain (Tulainyo) milestones are met:
TM(a): A$500k if flow of gas is economic to connect into a gas trunkline
TM(b): A$5m if Tulainyo contains at least 500bcf of gas gross to the project
or
Tm(c): A$10m if Tulainyo contains at least 1tcf of gas gross to the project
GLA
Pancontinental (ASX:PCL) CEO John Begg Interview in Sydney
21 Jun 2018 - Video Interview with Pancontinental O&G CEO John Begg
...only two months away from drilling the Cormorant prospect with 124mmbbl of prospective resources and in the success case we have a series of follow-up prospects, also not only our 20% share of the drill will be free carried by the operator Tullow O&G but on top we will receive US$5.5m (A$7.7m) from our Partner Africa Energy Corp who acquired a 10% share last year. Sounds like some near term upside potential to me, anticipation is key!
"Based largely on drilling the Cormorant prospect late this year, StockAnalysis assesses a risked value for Pancon of 1.2 cps and a value for success of 5.1 cps, compared with its current share price of 0.4 cps."
GLA
AEC, who farmed in to Tullow’s Block last year paying PCL US$7.7m for a 10% carried interest in the Cormorant drill, has raised US$45m in May 2018:
AEC US$45m - “The expected gross proceeds from the offering will be used to finance the Company?s acquisition, drilling and other joint venture costs for its projects offshore South Africa and offshore Namibia, as well as for general corporate purposes, including listing and transaction costs.”
..would not be surprised to see them farming in to our Central Blocks to have another well scheduled for 2018!
Looking at their near term potential costs they will have to pay PCL US$5.5m “acquisition costs” in October 2018 (@ Spud of Cormorant). Their share of “drilling costs” will be free carried by Tullow. Their other Blocks are located offshore South Africa where they own 90% in Block 2B and plan to drill in 3Q19, so “drilling costs” not imminent & they intend to farm down - similar to Chariot’s strategy a firm drilling commitment may give a commercial advantage in ongoing partnering discussions. In Block 11B/12B they will have to pay US$6.9m of pastcosts and plan to drill in December 2018 for which they will have to carry one of its partners (5.1%) up to a maximum of US$7.55m + their 4.9% share to drill a well which should be less than US$3m, so less than 6m in total. All in all ~US$20m of near term potential costs.
So there should be ~US$25m left to farmin to our Blocks offshore Namibia. :D
GLA
In May our partner AEC has raised US$45m
AEC US$45m: "The gross proceeds from the offering will be used to finance the Company's acquisition, drilling and other joint venture costs for its projects offshore South Africa and offshore Namibia, as well as for general corporate purposes, including listing and transaction costs"
Now we know that we will receive another US$5.5m from them by Spud of Cormorant in 3Q18. But what about the remaining US$40m?
Their share of “drilling costs” in Namibia will be free carried by Tullow. Their other Blocks are located offshore South Africa where they own 90% in Block 2B and plan to drill in 3Q19, so “drilling costs” not imminent & they intend to farm down. In Block 11B/12B they will have to pay US$6.9m of pastcosts and plan to drill in December 2018 for which they will have to carry one of its partners (5.1%) up to a maximum of US$7.55m + their 4.9% share to drill a well which should be less than US$3m, so less than 6m in total. All in all ~US$20m of near term potential costs as far as I understand.
So US$25m left for more acquisitions & farmins - AEC's Business strategy is to “Access near-term catalysts via farmins or acquisitions & Realize value through the drill bit”
I wonder if PCL will sell them another slice of PEL37? Or will they farmin to Chariot's Namibian Blocks who plan to drill in 4Q18?
GLA
New prospect for the portfolio: P1 Brazil 911mmbbls
Chariot Oil & Gas announces 2017 final results - updates operations
Brazil:
? Integrated seismic interpretation and CPR completed with a large four-way dip- closed structure identified
? Portfolio consisting of seven prospective reservoir targets individually ranging up to 366mmbbls
? Single vertical well located at Prospect 1 can penetrate the TP-1, TP-3 and KP-3 stacked targets which have a summed on-licence gross mean prospective resource of 911mmbbls
? Partnering process initiated with dataroom open
"Dempsey to produce commercial gas flows at 1,200mcf/d"
clients2.weblink.com.au/news/pdf_1%5C01983994.pdf
unfortunately only minimal contribution from Zone 4,
majority as expected from Field Level Kione Sandstone..
however it's commercial and will provide us with some cashflow,
revenue of ~US$130k per year and there is upside potential from other wells..
CEO - “We are pleased that commercial production is soon to commence at Dempsey at healthy rates in the order of 1.2 MMcfd. Additionally there is good scope to further lift production from other, existing wells owned by the Joint Venture within the Dempsey Project lands.”
looking forward to Namibia,
GLA!
correct 1st one targeted to be drilled in September is the same one Pancontinetal is involved with, 2nd one targeted to be drilled in 4Q18 is with Chariot.
GL!
not many traded is US - I buy my PCLs on ASX:
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/PCL/statistics/shares
understand - what I find particular interesting is the recent US$45m raise from Africa Energy Corporation. Their Business strategy is "Access near-term catalysts via farmins or acquisitions", I would not be surprised to see them farming in to our blocks offshore Namibia where we offer a near term catalyst with the Drilling of prospect "S" in 4Q18... partnering process ongoing.
GL!
buccaneer as far as I understand the conversion price for the convertible notes is fixed at A$0.008 (double of current SP) so I do not see any reason to regard them as toxic. I've been invested in another share, PetroRio, where they've issued convertible debentures, conversion price was the weighted average by daily volume of the closing price of the shares over the last 10 trading sessions prior to the receipt of the request for conversion, now that is what I call toxic! As for Pancontinental - as far I understand - the maximum issue of new shares (if all convertible notes are converted) is 200m (1.6m/0.008). So only little potential dilution (5.26/5.46=96.3%). By the way Pancontinental is to receive US$5.5m from Africa Energy Corporation as soon as the Cormorant well will be spudded in September.
convertible notes (March 2018)
PCL attracts partner in Namibia for US $7.7m in 2 stages (Sept 2017)
3rd one? as far as I know there are only two wells scheduled to be drilled offshore Namibia this year,
1st one in 3Q18 is the Cormorant well with
Tullow (35% operator)
ONGC (30%)
Pancontinental (20%)
Africa Energy Corp (10%)
Paragon (5%)
2nd one in 4Q18 is prspect "S" with
Chariot (65% operator)
Azinam (20%)
Namcor (10%)
Ignitus (5%)
buccaneer - total number of shares is 5.26 bn since raise in July 2017 but they've raised A$1.6m via convertible note issue in March 2018:
Tullow - "target spud date of September 1st"
https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/tullow-preparing-for-namibian-wildcat-after-securing-rig/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/tullow-preparing-for-namibian-wildcat-after-securing-rig/
Chariot to drill after Tullow probably using the same drillship - Poseidon (ocean rig)..
10-bagger potential with success in Namibia imo - its not only about Cormorant - there's another Billion Barrels of upside potential from the surrounding prospects..
Most likely in October following the Tullow drill in 3Q18, here's the latest presentation:
www.chariotoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Corporate-Presentation-May-1.pdf
fully funded - however partnering process ongoing which will add significant cash if they manage to acquire a partner. Current Cash Position already very healthy ~US$30m. Current net share of the drill in 4Q18 is 65% and net costs to drill the well are estimated to amount to ~US$15m to Chariot. As far as I know Chariot is not directly related to edison who are an investment research and advisory Company covering all Kind of sectors and companies.
GL!
Step by Step - Zone by Zone.. Nice!
1st Zone "with subcommercial rates" (November 2017)
2nd Zone "with a flowrate of 140mcf/d" (December 2017)
3rd Zone "with a flowrate of 195mcf/d" (April 2018)
Kione Zone "with a flowrate of 1000mcf/d (May 2018)
4th Zone "testing preparations are underway" (May 2018)
"After testing Zone 4, Sacgasco plan to combine production from all flowing tested zones in the Dempsey 1-15 well; and anticipates very early cash flow as the gas sales infrastructure is already connected to the Dempsey well."
GLA
No oil @ RD-1 next stop Namibia 4Q18
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/196025/chariot-oil-gas-well-fails-to-find-hydrocarbons-offshore-morocco-196025.html
GLA