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Regarding AH yesterday, one of the StockTwits posters indicated buying that share... essentially for fun.
Today's price action could be related to options expiration... there is some open interest on the $2.50 calls expiring tomorrow, so we might see a close at $2.50. If that happens, I'd expect a rebound on Monday.
An investor who follows it closely (@ErikNeelson) recently posted the following on Twitter:
$ATNM How I see ph 3- start Sept/Oct- pt enrollment done by June '16, primary EP-Jan '17, secondary EP- May '17, FDA approval- Jan '18.
Based on CEO comments in the recent KOL conference, best guess is that the P3 will start in 2-3 months. The CEO stated that they have the logistics set, but want to take their time with the paperwork to avoid any possible errors.
I had the same thoughts about near-term catalysts. Will be interested to see what others have to say.
ER will be released before market on Thursday (3/20) with CC to follow at 1 pm EST. http://www.4-traders.com/ENSERVCO-CORP-15982530/news/ENSERVCO--Schedules-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-18110089/
Where are you seeing that Monday (3/17) is ER? I can't seem to find any confirmation of that. TIA.
The warrants have an exercise price of $3.10, so par value now would be $2.22. I believe the last sale was several trading days back, so may not reflect the upward stock price. I've been thinking about warrants in lieu of ITM options, but the warrants trade very thinly, so it only makes sense to me for a long-term hold (with the possibility of exercising the warrants rather than selling them later). I think (but am not positive) that they were issued in 2011 and are good until 2018.
Nice chart analysis - thanks for posting.
Here's the WSJ article that Tappy referred to concerning Low-T therapy. It's worth a read:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/24/business/selling-that-new-man-feeling.html?ref=health&_r=0
RPH, I think you are correct - Kaushik J. Dave, who was the former Executive Vice President of Product Development left to become CEO of Actinium in September. So it looks like David Bergman is filling the empty slot (with a slightly different title).
David Bergstrom appointed Senior VP Pharmaceutical development:
http://boardvote.com/symbol/ATRS/communique/491170
It looks like there's a gap from 2.93 to 2.96 on 6/6/12 that was never filled. I have trouble believing that we'll fill it now, though.
Here's a short article in Arthritis Today that talks about injectable Actemra (biologic) as well as Otrexup and mentions cost factors.
http://www.arthritistoday.org/news/actemra-methotrexate-304.php
Some other references to Otrexup in online clinical newsletters. Looks like these sorts of brief items were put out as part of a PR campaign by ATRS.
http://www.medpagetoday.com/Rheumatology/Arthritis/42257
http://www.clinicaladvisor.com/methotrexate-injection-device-approved/article/316498/
Has company announced date for Q3 earnings/CC? I don't see anything yet on website.
Jack's status...
Can someone explain to me Jack Howarth's status regarding stock purchases/sales? I understand that he is not considered to be an insider, so that his purchases are not covered by SEC rules. But doesn't he have insider knowledge when significant events are about to occur?
Also, does anyone have an idea what might be lurking behind the confidential treatment order filed in August?
Michael Schiff is the first author of the podium presentation to be given this weekend at ACR. http://antarespharma.com/files/6813/8192/8896/OTREXUP_at_ACR.pdf
In case you're curious, here's a link to his bio:
http://tregdocs.com/faculty-treg/michael-schiff-md/
As far as I can tell, the talk will not be webcast.
I found Jack's email address and have sent him a query about the potential impact of Ben Venue's closing on Otrexup sales.
Very interesting find, Explorer.
In late 2011 when Ben Venue shut down their operations temporarily, it caused a serious shortage of injectable methotrexate (see link below). I would think that their decision now to shut their doors could have a significant (positive) impact on Otrexup sales going forward.
I'd be curious to get Jack Howarth's take on this. I was going to email him, but don't see any email contact information on the ATRS website. I did notice that they've updated the Corporate Presentation to October (but I haven't looked at it yet.)
http://arthritis.about.com/b/2012/02/11/injectable-methotrexate-in-serious-short-supply.htm
May 2014 options are now available.
Offering followed by run-up and buyout?
Per Twitter, Scott M.thinks that an offering is coming, perhaps after the close today. He interprets today's trading (1.5 M shares without a change in share price) as evidence of front-running of the offering by institutions. He feels strongly that a dilution would only occur in order to give institutions more shares in advance of a buyout, which he expects to occur by mid-November.
Just passing along this information. If a dilution occurs, he expects it to be small and taken up quickly, followed by a run-up thereafter.
I agree with you, USMA67. The important thing is to get the Otrexup approval behind us, regardless of short-term fluctuations in the share price.
Cash on hand...
As of June 30, ATRS had $69M in cash/equivalents/short-term investments. Is this enough to get them into next year before they ramp up Otrexup sales? I would think so, but would appreciate others' thoughts on this.
Otrexup and Enbrel combo?
Very interesting post this afternoon by Loko on YMB.
Yes, those two pages are interesting. I wonder why they deleted them.
Jr, the updated investor presentation is 26 pages. Here's the link:
http://www.antarespharma.com/files/1713/7884/6937/Antares_Presentation_-_September_2013_-.pdf
What are you seeing that's 18 pages?
Short percentage up substantially on Friday - I don't really understand this. Anyone?
http://www.shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=atrs
I know that you've mentioned this before, but I can't remember... when do you expect ATRS to reach your $8 target?
Scopolamine is specifically mentioned in the patent for the Hazardous Agent Injection System (near the bottom, under summary). http://www.freepatentsonline.com/8480631.html
Options expiration Friday
There are 2600 contracts of Aug $5 calls set to expire on Friday (and only 300 contracts of Aug $5 puts). I wonder if we'll start to see some upward movement in share price next week after they expire.
Based on the latest 10Q, revenues for H12013 are actually a little behind those reported in H12012, partly due to smaller contributions of development revenue in the current year. Does anyone know offhand if we are due to get milestone payments before the end of this year?
I realize that current revenue is largely unimportant with respect to long-term share price, as Otrexup is expected to be a much larger revenue generator. However,it would be nice to see the 2013 revenues show a significant increase from those in 2012.
BSAV, you projected roughly 40% increase in gross revenues from 2012-2013. Do you think we'll miss that target?
I meant to say "on the board again".
BSAV, great to hear from you on the again.
It looks like you may have revised your projections again sometime in the last few months. The last projections of yours that I'm aware of are those posted in March (IHub post #898).
When you get a chance, can you post your current projections (including all programs) - or, if they were previously posted, point me to that post?
Thanks in advance.
I'm new to this company, but just listened to the CC and am surprised at the size of the drop over the last few days. Although the financials were disappointing, the new CEO was fairly impressive. I'd be interested in perspectives from others who have been following the company.
Zevo, I asked the same question and received several good replies. See my post #2017 on this board, and replies that followed in the next few posts.
Thanks, for the summary, Jab. Helpful as a reminder even if you listened to the CC and/or read the transcript.
I thought the call today was excellent. The management team seems confident and excited about the future of the company and is clearly executing on their business plan in a disciplined manner.
Today's price-action was also gratifying as it suggests that the broader investing community viewed the CC as positive.
Now that earnings is out of the way, we should be clear to move upward toward the PDUFA date, and onwards from there. The next few months should be exciting.
Downside risk
Like many others on this board, I have a large part of my portfolio invested in ATRS. To mitigate downside risk, I'm considering selling a portion of my shares, or hedging them, before the PDUFA date in October, just IN CASE there is a delay or other problem with Otrexup approval. I do not EXPECT a problem with approval, but (as we all know) there is always some risk to these binary events.
My question to others on the board is this:
In the event that approval is delayed in October, how much of a drop in share price would you expect?
Thanks in advance -
Lucy
Ryman,I can't seem to find the message in which you posted your price targets - can you reiterate or post a link? Thanks.
Oppenheimer starts ATRS coverage with outperform rating, $6 target.
http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Coverage/Oppenheimer+Starts+Antares+Pharma+%28ATRS%29+at+Outperform/8438142.html?si_client=st