Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I agree we will probably not have a significant breakout unless Helen delivers substantive new deals and/or acquisitions. If we do get approvals in June (Hytrulo) and in September (Ocrevus and Tecentriq), we may get close to $50 and any pullbacks will hopefully be shallow.
Here's a MS note from today. This is what I found most interesting:
"On BD, mgt. expressed a continued interest in drug delivery capabilities and noted the
ability to add leverage for opportunities that would allow the company to de-lever
rapidly post-transaction (for reference, Halozyme's net leverage ratio was 2x as of
the close of 1Q24);"
Does this seem like a good strategy?
Halozyme Therapeutics (OW, $59 PT, covered by Vikram Purohit)
• Management Attendees: CEO Helen Torley, CFO Nicole LaBrosse, Head of IR &
Corporate Communications Tram Bui
• Key Takeaways: (1) Mgt. does not foresee a step down in royalty revenues
resulting from the expiration of Enhanze composition of matter (COM) IP in 2024
(EU) / 2027 (U.S.) due to the breadth of co-formulation patents across Enhanze
partnered products; (2) Halozyme has not observed an acceleration in biopharma
companies attempting to develop in-house versions of hyaluronidase to replace
use of Enhanze ahead of COM patent expiration, and does not believe there is a
strategic incentive for partners to prefer the use of an in-house product given the
risk of immunogenicity posed by a potential novel hyaluronidase product and the
relative low cost of Enhanze within the overall drug development process; (3)
Mgt. noted that the company continues to evaluate potential competitors in the
space (including Alteogen) to understand any potential infringement of Halozyme's
IP; (4) Halozyme’s capital allocation priorities include investments into the current
business, share repurchases, and potential business development (BD). On BD,
mgt. expressed a continued interest in drug delivery capabilities and noted the
ability to add leverage for opportunities that would allow the company to de-lever
rapidly post-transaction (for reference, Halozyme's net leverage ratio was 2x as of
the close of 1Q24); (5) The company’s 2024 royalty revenues guidance of $500M-
$525M includes only a modest contribution from Vyvgart Hytrulo in CIDP, for
which the PDUFA date is 6/21.
Thank you.
And no filing either.
Didn’t Helen tell us that the patent cliffs and biosimilars were nothing to worry about?
Agreed. Approval of Hytrulo for CIDP will help but we will likely need unexpected good news to get above $45.
Halozyme Therapeutics Inc forms bullish "Double Moving Average Crossover" chart pattern
Apr 08, 2024
Trading Central has detected a "Double Moving Average Crossover" chart pattern formed on Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (HALO:NASDAQ). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $39.91.
Tells Me: The price is generally in an established trend (bullish or bearish) for the time horizon represented by the moving average periods.
Moving averages (MA) are used to smooth out the volatility or "noise" in the price series, to make it easier to discover the underlying trend. By plotting the average price over the last several bars, the line is less "jerky" than plotting the actual prices. In the double crossover method, a bullish event is generated when a faster moving average crosses above a slower moving average (21-bar MA crosses 50-bar, or 50-bar MA crosses 200-bar). In this state, the price is likely in an established uptrend. The opposite is true when the faster slips below the slower moving average, triggering a bearish event.
This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Trading Central proprietary pattern recognition technology.
I actually think the crossover happened today but the article is from yesterday. According to yahoo finance, the 50 is at $38.74 and the 200 at $38.66. Hopefully, some good news is around the corner.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HALO/chart?nn=1#eyJsYXlvdXQiOnsiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjo4Ljc5MzY1MDc5MzY1MDc5NCwiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5IjpmYWxzZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJjcm9zc2hhaXIiOnRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImxpbmUiLCJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJsaW5lYXIiLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSwiZGlzcGxheSI6IkhBTE8iLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsImluZGV4IjowLCJ5QXhpcyI6eyJuYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6bnVsbH0sInlheGlzTEhTIjpbXSwieWF4aXNSSFMiOlsiY2hhcnQiXX19LCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjYsImJhc2UiOiJtb250aCIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcmlvZCI6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOiJkYXkifSwic2hvd0V2ZW50c1F1b3RlIjp0cnVlLCJmb3JjZUxvYWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ1c2VFeGlzdGluZ0RhdGEiOnRydWV9LCJvdXRsaWVycyI6ZmFsc2UsImFuaW1hdGlvbiI6dHJ1ZSwiaGVhZHNVcCI6eyJzdGF0aWMiOnRydWUsImR5bmFtaWMiOmZhbHNlLCJmbG9hdGluZyI6ZmFsc2V9LCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsImZ1bGxTY3JlZW4iOnRydWUsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2UiOm51bGwsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6IkhBTE8iLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiSEFMTyIsIm1hcmtldCI6InVzX21hcmtldCIsInF1b3RlVHlwZSI6IkVRVUlUWSIsImV4Y2hhbmdlVGltZVpvbmUiOiJBbWVyaWNhL05ld19Zb3JrIiwicGVyaW9kMSI6MTY2NTM4NTIwMCwicGVyaW9kMiI6MTcxMjcwMDAwMH0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjYsImJhc2UiOiJtb250aCIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcmlvZCI6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOiJkYXkifSwic2hvd0V2ZW50c1F1b3RlIjp0cnVlLCJmb3JjZUxvYWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ1c2VFeGlzdGluZ0RhdGEiOnRydWV9fV0sIndpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7IuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxtYSwwKSI6eyJ0eXBlIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjo1MCwiRmllbGQiOiJmaWVsZCIsIlR5cGUiOiJtYSIsIk9mZnNldCI6MCwiaWQiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoNTAsbWEsMCkiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDUwLG1hLDApIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiTUEiOiIjRkYwMDAwIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiZWRpdE1vZGUiOnRydWV9LCJkaXNhYmxlZCI6ZmFsc2V9LCLigIxtYeKAjCAoMjAwLG1hLDApIjp7InR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJQZXJpb2QiOiIyMDAiLCJGaWVsZCI6ImZpZWxkIiwiVHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsbWEsMCkiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxtYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXRzIjp7Ik1BIjoiI0ZGMDAwMCJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsImVkaXRNb2RlIjp0cnVlfSwiZGlzYWJsZWQiOmZhbHNlfX19LCJldmVudHMiOnsiZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSwic3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlLCJ0cmFkaW5nSG9yaXpvbiI6Im5vbmUiLCJzaWdEZXZFdmVudHMiOltdfSwicHJlZmVyZW5jZXMiOnsiY3VycmVudFByaWNlTGluZSI6dHJ1ZSwiZGlzcGxheUNyb3NzaGFpcnNXaXRoRHJhd2luZ1Rvb2wiOmZhbHNlLCJkcmF3aW5ncyI6bnVsbCwiaGlnaGxpZ2h0c1JhZGl1cyI6MTAsImhpZ2hsaWdodHNUYXBSYWRpdXMiOjMwLCJtYWduZXQiOmZhbHNlLCJob3Jpem9udGFsQ3Jvc3NoYWlyRmllbGQiOm51bGwsImxhYmVscyI6dHJ1ZSwibGFuZ3VhZ2UiOm51bGwsInRpbWVab25lIjoiQW1lcmljYS9OZXdfWW9yayIsIndoaXRlc3BhY2UiOjUwLCJ6b29tSW5TcGVlZCI6bnVsbCwiem9vbU91dFNwZWVkIjpudWxsLCJ6b29tQXRDdXJyZW50TW91c2VQb3NpdGlvbiI6ZmFsc2V9fQ--
On second thought, it is possible that the market thinks those patents will most likely be granted. If so, this is already baked into the current price. My assumption is that they are not at all a sure thing but I could be completely wrong.
On the whole, I agree with you and easycomeandgo. The current PPS reflects all available information and we can assume that no assumptions have been ignored by the institutions that hold the stock. Undoubtedly, the market's main concern is growth beyond 2028. However, I think that the information Halo provided during the presentation in january contained some significant uncertainties, some of them regarding the pending patents. If and when those patents are granted, those uncertainties will be removed and that should alleviate some, certainly not all, of the concern with future growth.
We do have three potential approvals in the next six months or so, Hytrulo for CIDP, Tecentriq and Ocrevus. If they all get approved, that should also help. On the other hand, I don't think the market is particularly excited about any of them. I think investors are concerned that Darzalex was the exception to the rule and that none of the Enhanze products in development will do nearly as well. Of course, some of the products eventually could exceed expectations and the stock price will reflect that. In the meantime, it seems that only substantial new deals and the acquisition of a strong technology platform can restore confidence and really turn things around for Halo.
Halo's YTD performance matches exactly the S&P 500. It's underperformed the S&P 500 at 6 months and 1 year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HALO/chart?nn=1#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--
I am assuming that if all patents are granted, Halo gets an additional 7 years of royalties on Tecentriq and possibly 10 years on Hytrulo, plus 3 years without reduction in royalties for Ocrevus. Probably not enough to reach new highs but maybe enough to get to $50, especially if it happens soon. Of course, if no new deals are signed in ‘24, we are in serious trouble. They have already destroyed their credibility, it’s going to be really hard to regain investors’ trust if they don’t deliver something soon.
I took a closer look at the slides. There is a patent pending for Tecentriq SC, Ocrevus SC and Hytrulo. Have they said when they expect these patents to be granted? If they do get granted, it'll make a significant difference.
No, I haven’t listened to the chat yet. I will try to do it tomorrow. The lack of progress in the clinic for several products together with the lack of new deals is very concerning. And yet the stock has been acting a little better. Nothing to get too excited about, of course.
Another setback and more evidence that we have an awful lot of competition. But I am not clear if ViiV is developing this other formulation with another company or on their own.
I guess it’s possible but I don’t know that we can find out for sure that Viridian even considered making a deal with Halo/Antares. I don’t know anything about Ypsomed. It does seem that this is a very competitive field.
Obviously, I was talking about 45% of Darxalex FasPro total sales, not Halo’s. My point is that I thought the stepped down royalty rate starting in March applied to Europe only, which I think is only about 30% of total sales. My numbers are correct if Helen’s and analysts’ projections are correct. I believe she said sales of Darzalex are estimated to be $17B in 2027 or 2028.
No misinformation in that post or any of my previous ones. Your repeating that it’s misinformation does not make it true.
Did you listen to the last call? I think the last 30 seconds were the most positive. She said that they are still interested in M&A and I believe she said that that will provide the greatest value for investors. Really? They just figured that out?
Also, I had always heard and read that the March 2024 patent cliff for Darzalex FasPro applied to Europe (I could be wrong about this) but this time she said "outside US". That means royalties get cut in half on about 45% of total sales. If Helen's projections are correct and the royalty rate is now around 4%, this means Halo will lose about $100M in 2024 gradually going up to about $150M in 2026, and then about $300M when the stepped down rate includes US in 2027. Can they replace and even exceed all those lost royalties to keep growth going?
Agreed.
You are pretty funny. Agreed. ABOS and sabirnetug are long shots, highly speculative. Many potential drugs for Alzheimer have failed even in phase 3... But I think Halo got really lucky with Darzalex FasPro so I'm hoping they get lucky again. There is no way the uptake of FasPro would have been so fast without the pandemic. Of course, they were out-lawyered by JNJ and made a lousy deal, were not able to capitalize on that success, etc. But that's another story.
I noticed that ABOS has rallied in the past couple of weeks, perhaps in anticipation of a presentation they have next Friday. Their drug is still in phase 1 so it’ll still be several years for it to become a potential Enhanze product but, who knows, maybe we get lucky again.
But presumably it is Hytrulo inside the AI? It is at least reassuring that the PFS is with Halo. I am guessing that the PFS has to be administered by a professional, not the patient.
What is the difference?
Thank you.
Yes, their lack of transparency is one of the reasons they have lost credibility and investors' trust. And yes, the opportunity costs of holding Halo have been huge. It's hard to see how we get back to new highs without lots of very significant news and yet it is difficult for me to sell at $39 when I could have done it at $59. Of course, it's not a good reason not to sell. Also, I've had a lot of realized capital gains lately and I've been hesitant to realize more gains. Probably another mistake.
Below is a note from MS. Do we know for sure that Halo/Antares are involved with the PFS option?
"Highlights on Vyvgart in MG/CIDP: (1) A pivotal program evaluating Vyvgart in
seronegative MG patients is expected to begin in 2024; (2) On the pre-filled syringe
(PFS), mgt. noted that they aim to make the option available for MG and CIDP - and
that an update on the company's efforts with the bioequivalence & human factors
work required for a filing with the FDA will be provided in 1H24. Argenx aims to
submit these filings this year; (3) In MG, mgt. noted that uptake for Vyvgart Hytrulo
is growing although Vyvgart IV continues to represent the large majority of Vyvgart
use; (4) In CIDP, mgt. noted that the company has gained an increasing level of
conviction in the unmet need with the indication - but regardless continues to
anticipate a measured initial launch curve for Vyvgart Hytrulo (assuming approval)
given the time that will be required for insurance/access to settle and the level of
familiarity patients currently have with IVIG. See our team's prior survey work for
CIDP here."
I looked at the top mutual fund holders. It does appear that most of the shares are held in index funds. For instance, at least 11 million of the approximately 13 million shares Vanguard owns are in index funds. All else being equal, it makes me wonder what a market correction would do to halo's stock price. Also, if the general market had not been so strong, where would we be? Have index funds and halo itself been the only buyers lately? What do you think?
Top Mutual Fund Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 4.08M Sep 30, 2023 3.22% 162,309,850
iShares Core S&P Midcap ETF 4.01M Dec 31, 2023 3.16% 159,354,903
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 3.43M Dec 31, 2023 2.71% 136,453,813
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund 3.4M Sep 30, 2023 2.68% 134,946,753
Artisan Small Cap Fund 2.47M Sep 30, 2023 1.95% 98,355,431
SPDR (R) Ser Tr-SPDR (R) S&P (R) Biotech ETF 2.01M Dec 31, 2023 1.58% 79,685,975
Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund 1.9M Sep 30, 2023 1.50% 75,420,323
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund 1.85M Sep 30, 2023 1.46% 73,454,346
Delaware Group Equity Fds V-Small Cap Core Fund 1.82M Nov 30, 2023 1.43% 72,206,867
Vanguard Explorer Fund, Inc. 1.45M Oct 31, 2023 1.15% 57,743,732
My understanding is that the initial conversion price was about $56 but capped call transactions complicated the issue. In any case, I agree the convertible notes and, at least so far, the Antares acquisition have not helped. I disagree that the questions I raised are nothing to worry about. Rather than “All is well. Except for the stock price.”, I would say that the stock price has been suffering because not all is well with the company.
You did not answer any of my questions.
If Enhanze is ten years ahead of the competition, why is Merck developing SC keytruda without Halo?
Why have longtime partners Abbvie, Lilly and Pfizer not developed any Enhanze products?
Why did Lilly recently make a deal with a competitor?
Why did Amgen/Horizon recently end their partnership with Halo for Tepezza and decide to develop SC Tepezza with another competitor?
Do you know what the discounted rate will be for Faspro in 2027? How much do you expect Halo will lose in royalties?
Will it be $2 Billion!?? I don't remember them having a stock buyback program before the last $750M but I guess they did and in any case it is frustrating and mind boggling. The stock was $45 on 2/22/21 and it had already hit $50, we are now below $40 so obviously the market is not impressed with what they have done in the past three years. And yet Darzalex has exceeded expectations over and over, so has Phesgo, but they don't seem to be able to sign new partnerships, we have the patent cliffs in March 2024 and 2027, existing partners are walking away or not developing new products, and yet Halo continues to pursue the same strategy!!! What's wrong with them???
There has been some progress in the clinic and they have some good products to look forward to, but the pipeline is getting smaller and smaller. I believe we used to have 12 products in development, then 10 even as recently as perhaps two quarters ago, and now seven. We are not adding but losing shots on goal. As I feared, Amgen did discontinue development of Tepezza and the whole partnership.
I think you are right we are a long way to $59 and we will not get there in the near or even medium term without significant new deals or acquisitions imho. There seems to be no attempt to deal with the market's concern about the "after" Enhanze.
"We currently have a robust pipeline with seven exciting products in development. This reflects amivantamab moving to Wave 3 based on the updated potential launch timing and Amgen's decision to not move forward with a subcutaneous version of TEPEZZA with ENHANZE. Johnson & Johnson has also made the decision to not proceed with rilpivirine subcutaneous."
I don’t know if it’s too late already. But the question for me is whether or not they will wise up, sell some shares after good news and invest in the future of the company. It’s not rocket science. It’s what every decent biotech company does.
That’s not always the case. But both Horizon and Amgen made deals with them in 2022 and in January 2024. That strongly suggests that development has been going well. Why else would Amgen sign a new deal?
And that coupled with the lack of new deals strongly suggests not all is great with Halo.
How can you be so sure? Horizon started working with them in 2022. Halo has completed phase 1 trials in about a year and then moved to a phase 3.
In November 2022 Horizon made a deal with XERS to develop a SC formulation of Tepezza. On Jan 10th 2024 Amgen made a deal with them described as an exclusive license. Oddly enough, Amgen announced that they are moving to a phase 3 trial but when an analyst asked what technology they are using, they refused to comment on it. It seems that they are definitely using Xers’s technology. Could they be using Halo’s too? Wishful thinking?
In any case, we have one more uncertainty and probably another setback. I did not remember Horizon had an agreement with Xeris. Again, existing partners making deals with competitors is what I find most troubling.
I don’t expect them to participate in any conferences until they have some positive developments to brag about.
J&J has an undisclosed target with Enhanze but I think it's in phase 1 so it's unlikely to be Nipocalimab. This news came out yesterday. I wonder why Halo is up today, for now.
The PE is “low” because of the patent cliffs and the lack of new deals, which make revenue growth durability impossible. I think the only solution would be a bold new acquisition but that I suspect could only happen in a couple of years if they stop the stock buybacks and sell some shares to raise more funds.
Bellevue was a large shareholder until a few quarters ago. There used to be others. I am pretty sure Baker Brothers was one of them years ago.
All the life sciences funds have already sold. As for BlackRock, I suspect Halo is mostly in their index funds. I don’t see that as a positive at all.
I am not sure how long I will keep holding. I keep hoping for some unexpected good news but I also fear that this will continue to be a costly mistake. My concerns are very similar to yours except that I am not sure a change in leadership would get us more Enhanze deals. What makes me skeptical is that we have partnerships with Pfizer, Lilly and Abbvie and yet no Enhanze products in development with them. I doubt a new CEO could change that.