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Weird sell off today. Oh well, nice adds. Onward and upward
Nice dips this morning
Thank you, I quite enjoy kchannels as well. Great charts
Same
Well said Citrati. For me I’ve been leaning heavily on the $VVIX:$VIX daily chart for entries and exit. Sounds over simplified but take a look. Since February, candle blow lower BB is sell, candle outside upper BB is buy. Today’s is a prime buying time for UVXY and VIX calls IMO
Loading here all day, this is bound for a 100%+ move soon
Only missed by 300,000 jobs this morning! We are doing great! At least the airlines are vaccinated. That’s what matters
Volatility pinned all week. Next week opex and an extended 5 week opex cycle afterwards should open the door for volatility
Also natural gas insane..BOIL.
IMO everyone should be mapping 10/1/18-12/31/18. We may have a very similar unfolding
Yes but that was on SPX way to new ATH. This is a different structure, options chain and flow order much more supportive of volatility. Think more Q4 2018 IMO
Honestly to me this is telling us this could be a sustained move. Think about all the 20%+ spikes, they give back the entire move 2-3 days later. This time it’s moving up like an investment
$MREO conference this weekend
Nice pullback for adds
Ironically, I actually think it’s very bearish that /VX1 is flat here
Dealers have about $6 Bn in ES today to dump thanks to JPM calls expiring OTM
Today’s unwinding of JPM calls is going to be interesting
Uvxy holding up well. More thunder clouds ahead?
Was nice action today. Looking for sub $300 this week if market keeps down
I think they forget that Jay is probably leaving in December
No one is hedging. I think many are caught by surprise in the coming weeks
Here are a few things I’d contest (my day job is as a tax CPA who works on inheritance)
1. The average age of inheritors through 2016 actually rose to 51, so we aren’t talking 20 year olds getting this money
2. While the amount sounds large it is concentrated among a small percentage of ultra wealthy who already have the money ear marked and managed
3. Much of that wealth is not in or available for equity markets. It is in the form of private business ownership and real estate
Still it will be an interesting dynamic to watch but I think Lee is wrong in concluding all this money going into growth stocks and crypto
Yes agree, and just like last time, the baby boomers will strip out all of the wealth before it’s said and done
Everyone has miscalculated the dynamic of the millennial generation. Neil Howe Fourth Turning is a must read
Ya who knows, this fraud market could go to 4700, idk but systemically what’s happening will have a cost for the next 20 years
This is far bigger news than I think most understand. Jpow term up end of year as well
None of it matters until it all matters. Fascinating world we live in right now. I think last Monday is just a glimpse of what is to come
Yeah I had all sell signals flash this morning. Thought we’d get the move then it went sideways. Very weird. We know parabolic moves always resolve
Great short setting up, maybe $360+ tomorrow first
New 52 week highs. Congrats all
I’m reloading yesterday’s sells as well. Think spy could bounce as high as MA50 but longer we stay under the trend line, the more this is a trend change. So far today looks like a dead cat bounce
Manipulated trash
Thank you. Great charts as always. We just had the contagion gap mostly close as well so we may see backwardation soon if this move gets wings. That is when uvxy is really fun, as you know.
Haha the decay is atrocious but this is one of those few times a year the risk/reward is favorable
Exactly. We may be oversold on the daily so I could see a bounce but weekly has tons of room for sure
It def looks like first signs of panic in a long time. I think we could see a candle like 2/24/20 that lures in longs to buy for the “guaranteed” bounce and then the big move down the next day
Congrats all, we finally got it! Spy may bounce but in but trouble below that trend line. Same pattern at February 2020
Agree just keeping a tight eye on rate contagion. Not quite there but we may be close, October tends to be a month of outlier events. Either way the Fed is pinned. Market trying to act like Fed hawkish speak lately is nothing to make sure everyone stays long. But they will learn just like the warning shot January 2020 before the real deal in February
Haha! Apparently we do. I’d love a black swan but not sure the Evergrande is it
You mean they won’t just keep bouncing it off a trend line my 7 year old could draw like the last 5 months?