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Hi Tom.
The Permanent Portfolio is different, 25% each stocks/LTT/cash/gold
Land or home or REIT, stocks, gold ... thirds each is the Talmud style, my personal preferred choice.
Consider 'stocks' as a simplified form of buying a farm and working the land - that yield dividends. Own a home and you don't have to find/pay rent to others, has imputed rent benefit. REIT are similar, but where someone else manages buying and renting. Gold is more like just buying land and leaving it idle. Three fields if you like, two being sown/harvested, another being left fallow to enrich the soil (perhaps where you bury your gold, but then rotate the fields yearly - move the gold into the next field).
Stocks and REIT are similar in many ways, somewhat move aligned, but differ. Different crops in different fields, both generally productive. A farmer with a constant fallow field loses less in a bad harvest year - tends to recover quicker from over-worked (extended) poor soil situations, rises less in good/great harvest years.
Definition of a farmer - a man outstanding in his own field :)
The farmer that pushes hard each/every year, over-working all his fields, maybe concentrating into a single crop (stocks) will at times pull ahead, but then slam into one or more seasons of regret, bad harvests. The one field fallow rotation farmer is more inclined to see more steady/consistent harvests. Broadly perhaps similar overall total returns, but where when the rewards are the same/similar the one with the more consistent productivity (lower standard deviation/variance) is generally considered to be the better risk-adjusted reward.
Individual fields (assets)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=4B9fCOE4SlfQsvwH6ynvwK
Comparing all-stock to thirds each stock/REIT/gold
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=4Ym8nrenMmtH6sF1DwrIPS
If you own your own home, don't have to find/pay rent for shelter, and additionally have around twice that home value again split equally between stocks and gold, then you're diversified across multiples currencies, both fiat and non-fiat, and multiple sources of income, imputed rent, dividends, SWR (withdrawals), and have two thirds of your wealth in-hand, no counter-party risks (land and gold).
Rebalancing wise and 'spending' the imputed rent, and spending the stock dividends, and drawing some from either stocks or gold - whichever is the higher value of the two at the time ... can be enough, partial rebalancing via directed withdrawals. That can extend out 10 or even 20+ years without too much 'drift' in the asset weightings. If/when a big drift is apparent however then especially if either due to stocks or gold having risen a lot then again partial rebalancing (ignoring your home value unless a move of home is considered reasonable/appropriate) - resetting stocks and gold to 50/50 weights is a appropriate choice/action. If say gold was twice the stocks value or vice-versa.
Clive
Hi Tom
Historic (typically) 30 year SWR measures identifies the individual worst case withdrawal rate period. That individual worst case often follows large/fast gain up-run, euphoria - over-extending share prices and then subsequent realism drop. Think Wall Street Crash 1930's - that followed the "Roaring 20's" when all, including shoe shine boys, were 'experts' at making money from stocks, some/many even massively leveraged stocks (borrowed to buy shares). Japan's 1970/1980's is another example, the rise of Yamaha, Sony ...etc. to global household names, and the subsequent 1990's corrective declines. Dot com bubble 1999 peak, perhaps a AI bubble next. Any method that has you reduce being heavily in at euphoric highs is inclined to improve the SWR outcome. More often the average actual SWR supported is considerably higher than the 4% guideline SWR commonly suggested (for all-stock 3.5%, but many opt for 4% on the assumption that they wont be in the worst case 5%)
I applied another AIM measure, standard AIM (10% SAFE, 5% MTS) but where AIM-CASH is set to zero if/when it transitions to negative (so first AIM Sell after a deep dive has some positive AIM CASH), I also applied a 2% Portfolio Control acceleration for years since 1985 to account for the transition towards stocks retaining more of earnings, paying out less in dividends. I further limited resulted AIM CASH, that otherwise ranged 0% to around 66% to >=20% <=50% i.e. between Robert Lichello's 80/20 AIM-HI and standard AIM 50/50 choices (if <20% then indicate 20%, if >50% indicate 50%). From that AIM that dates back to 1915 I extracted out the 1982 years for which vwave/iwave data is available. As that AIM averaged 36% cash I adjusted both vwave and iwave to also average the same, average cash equalization. For vWave (that is the index form, individual stock form / 1.5) that involved adding +8% to each yearly value. Ditto iwave but where +11% was added. So all three averaged 36% cash across 1982 to 2023 years. Aligning actual portfolio value once/year to those indicated %CASH amounts and it was a close call between each of the three, ranking best to worst ... iWave, vWave, AIM. However the differences between all three might be considered insignificant, in the scale of things too small to be considered potentially nothing other than 'noise' differences.
Fundamentally by providing liquidity (reducing-high) to the greedy, and to the scared (adding-low), mostly its a case of reducing the pain from periodic sizable declines from over-extensions that seems to be the primary driver factor. Consider another case of a target 67/33 stock/gold asset allocation. What might drive 67 stock value to halve to 33 might also drive 33 gold value to double to 67. 67/33 transitions to 33/67 with no capital loss, rebalancing back to 67/33 stock/gold again has you holding twice as many shares after prices/values had halved. That will lag across times when stocks do well, decline less across bad stock times. More widely/broadly tend to largely compare to all-stock overall when measured from average to average points (but could selectively be measured peak-trough or trough-peak if one wanted to make a specific distorted sales-pitch angle).
So a investor might opt to align once/year to the iWave indicated cash at that time, or the vwave, or run AIM, or 67/33 to in effect comparable expectancies. One of those will be the worst, another the best, but I suspect that's more a case of luck than specific individual consistent characteristics. Individual AIM wise I haven't measured actual results as part of that analysis, however I feel that falls into the same category. When you buy (or sell) some shares the prior trend might continue, or reverse, again more a case of luck, trading smaller amounts multiple times/year (averaging) rather than once/year (lump) I suspect broadly washes out overall. Constant weighted, such as 67/33 however is inclined to be the worst of the set. At times 50/50 would have been more appropriate, at other times 80/20, adjusting to align with those levels in reflection of current valuations rather than a constant single weighting choice is likely better than not.
Primarily we're looking at risk-reduction benefits. Maybe similar overall rewards to all-stock in the broad sense, but where SWR risk is lowered (worst case SWR is improved). A factor is that data since the 1980's is across a period that started at significant lows. The 1970's saw large scale losses in stocks and a rise to very high inflation and interest rates, a relative (and significant) low. Starting from a low is inclined to yield good/great subsequent outcome. Presently that's somewhat flipped, recent levels might be considered as being at potential highs (more so given recent prior years of 0% interest rates/inflation). AIM and such-like did OK over that low to high era transition and reasonably might be expected to do better during a high to low period.
Fiat currency is a given. Even under gold standard (gold/silver/copper is money) revisions periodically have to be made as things are never consistently stable. Under the gold standard revisions are short/sharp large single points in time adjustments. Under fiat its more a glide-path situation, interest rates, debasement (printing/spending money), taxes etc. are adjusted towards a smoother glide path objective. It's pretty much a given that a dollar today will buy more than that dollar will buy in 20 years time.
More generally I suspect a reasonable choice might be just to apply the vWave once/year portfolio rebalancing as the least effort choice (iWave/MRI being non-public). Or apply AIM if you so prefer. With AIM that opens up applying separate AIM's to different sectors/indexes that is inclined to further smooth out overall portfolio volatility (potentially further lower SWR risk). Failing that, just opt for something like 67/33 yearly rebalanced. Much of investing is more about reducing mistakes. Many individual investors are attracted in at highs, capitulate after losses/lows, mistakes that can be very costly, end up being worse off than if they'd just deposited their money into a interest paying cash deposit account. Outside of that, adding-when-low/reducing-when-high is the counter side to that, and where even if you just achieve market average rewards that average outcome is typically good.
Clive
Yes a evolved version of the TooFuzzy original, additional/modified javascript code and re-formed to use CSS/HTML5
Hi Tom
A AIM sandwich is quite tasty
AIM as normal, inflation adjusted stock index price, but where if AIM-CASH transitions negative, set it to zero. So it moves back into some cash at the first sell trade, rather than potentially being stuck down in deep-down, all-cash-deployed limbo.
Identify ongoing AIM-CASH value / portfolio value, as normal, but cap it to 33.3% if less than 33.3%, 66.6% if greater than 66%, and sandwich that between stock and gold. So thirds each stock, AIM, gold (silver pre 1975 (gold prohibited), T-Bills pre 1933 (non-fiat currency era)).
Extract out that central AIM third and its growth rate slow beat all-stock, and its SWR was significantly higher than all stock, 5% instead of 3.5%. Heavy fuel.
If/when AIM is down into deep down territory the outer layers (stock and gold) keep things working (67 stock/gold rebalancing).
A factor with heavy fuel alone is that you have to be prepared to be all-in at times. With the sandwich you range between thirds stock/gold/cash at market highs, 67/33 stock/gold at market lows, broadly average 60/40. Which is less stressful for some. SWR is still good either way, comparable, yes fuel heavy will tend to average more rewards, but not that much more on average, 9.5% versus 9.1% growth rate slope differences.
Now look at them yo-yo's - that's the way to do it
Money for nothing ... so says TV (mTV)
Simplified AIM
If you AIM a single major stock index fund where dividends are automatically reinvested, and in retirement spend using your credit card where once/month you sell some of your portfolio value in order to pay that bill off, then AIM management can be simplified down to once/month reviews a week or so before the credit card bill is due to be paid.
You just need to store the AIM (on paper values) for Portfolio Control (PC), Number of Shares (#S), AIM cash (AC), and reference the stock fund price at the time of the review (I use real (after inflation price so have to divide that by the CPI index, where I use the one month lagged CPI index for that given its a late reported index)) ... pop those figures into a AIM calculator - that identifies the AIM %CASH applicable at that time.
With a second calculator you can drop your actual portfolios stock and cash (I use gold for 'cash') and the AIM %CASH figure as calculated above into that, along with how much you need to pay off your credit card bill .... that then indicates how much stock (and gold) to sell/buy at that time.
One sell trade/month that you'd be making anyway in order to make a withdrawal to pay off your credit card bill. Maybe a purchase trade, if the actual amount was meaningful enough to warrant that. With by broker I get a free trade each month as part of the package.
Basically realigning your actual portfolio into alignment with AIM each month, rather than trading at each AIM trade signal and where with a simple calculator and just a record of updated PC/#S/AC you're guided as to the value of stock to trade via a couple of mouse clicks each month (plus of course logging into your brokerage account to actually make the trade(s)).
Easy/simple enough to teach a partner who might otherwise be disinterested. Three updated figures to record (PC/#S/AC), reference the current brokerage holdings/values and current share price, run the calculator(s) and place a trade. Done for the month.
Clive
Another noteworthy aspect is that AIM tends to be the least worst. If for instance you start with a regular 50/50 portfolio and draw income from whichever of the two is the higher value at the time, otherwise left as is, then that is a form of partial rebalancing; Or you might rebalance back to 50/50 after withdrawing income (full rebalancing). Across all such sample runs those alternative styles yield different overall outcomes, one or the other isn't the consistently better approach. The differences can be significant, such as ending with 120% of the inflation adjusted start date portfolio value instead of 80%. To reduce the risk of being in the worst case choice you might start with 50/50 allocations to each of those, in effect run two separate portfolios for 30 years, same assets, just different styles, each providing half the income. Running AIM solely alone however and the results tend to be closer to the better of the two choices - is inclined to avoid being the worst case.
Fundamentally rebalancing is good if the prior trend reverses, would have been better to leave as-is rather than have rebalanced if the trend continues. Sometimes non rebalanced is better than rebalanced and in other cases vice-versa. AIM has a knack of being a bit of both, magically identifying the more appropriate choice of the two. Robert Lichello called it Automatic Investment Management, a more appropriate name in the present era however might be a Artificial Intelligence Machine. From a 30 year SWR risk measure perspective AIM has served well, inclined to be better than aimlessly :) picking and sticking with a rigid asset allocation/style.
From the Trinity study guidance withdrawal rates (SWR's) for different lengths of time
AIM is inclined to yield 100% when others might yield 95% probabilities, so as your horizon shortens so AIM might better achieve acceptable higher rates of withdrawal rates, perhaps such as 6% SWR with a 15 year horizon.
Hi Tom
Thanks Tom.
Converting to 'diversified' (dividing by 1.5), and comparing each rebalanced to the i/v wave indicated cash weightings at the start of each year, I'm seeing yearly (and accumulated) total returns comparisons of
S&P500 for stock, gold for cash, yearly total returns for those taken from Simba's backtest spreadsheet (Large Cap Blend stock value). The Dow real price AIM in that chart includes a 2% yearly uplift in PC from 1985, i.e. higher taxation directed towards more of earnings tending to be retained, prior 4% dividends declined more to 2%.
Whilst the S&P500 total return was clearly the better case since 1982, it should be considered that the 1970's were pretty harsh on all-stock, in effect the 1980/1990's were a run-up 'compensation' for the 1970's losses. The pains endured during the 1970's were a large part of the reason why the likes of Robert Lichello (AIM) and Harry Brown (Permanent Portfolio) devised 'safer' methods, 1968/1969 and early 1970's were very hard on some stock-heavy investors, some lost substantial wealth built up over many decades to levels where they thought they were comfortable only to see that wiped out across a few year, especially if they were in drawdown/retirement.
More broadly and AIM tends to plod along in a more linear upward slope, better rides such longer term cycles, and that lower volatility aids in uplifting SWR from 3.5% levels to 4.5% or even 5% levels. But that is multi-generational, a individual generation who started in the late mid/late 1970's lows in stock heavy were fortunate, a factor that helped Warren Buffett rise to being considered one of the best investors ever i.e. in part a consequence of coinciding with fortunate timing.
Fundamentally and the Aims/Waves seem to wash, the primary being that if you add-low/reduce-high in a manner that reduces being heavily in at a bubble peak, that often occur after relatively fast up-runs, then your drawdowns are lower, which reduces (improves) the worst case SWR start dates, where otherwise if you start one day with a 4% SWR and the next day stocks had halved that's little different to starting with a 8% SWR - that runs into potential bad earlier years sequence of returns risk that may extend into being critical/financially fatal (esp. if in retirement).
You might say that those that lost large fortunes in the late 1960's/1970's in effect gave them to the investors of the 1980's/1990's. A risk is that the 2020's/2030's could be more like the 1960's/1970's than being like the 1980's/1990's. Which in turn might result in those who do lose out heavily wishing they'd been invested in alternatives such as AIM, Permanent Portfolio and suchlike.
Thanks again.
Clive
Hi Tom
For those that have 'won the game' ... have enough, then IMO there's a lot to be said for thirds each home, stocks. gold
Your shelter is covered, no rent to be found/paid to others, perhaps where the imputed rent benefit is 3.3%/year value, 1.1% proportioned to total wealth. Dow/Gold and the Dow might throw off a 3.3% dividend, another 1.1% proportioned to total wealth. If from the Dow price only/gold 50/50 you draw a 1.66% SWR, that's another 1.1% of total wealth benefit. Combined 3.3% effective SWR - that when measured over the typical 30 year period = return of your inflation adjusted money via regular income, sourced from imputed rent, stock dividends, SWR, holding two-thirds of the assets in-hand (land (home) and gold), and where the other third can be liquidated in T+2 time (stocks), diversified across land, stock, commodity assets and where as a Brit GBP (home), USD (stocks), gold (global non fiat commodity currency). Historically that has tended to end the 30 years with your inflation adjusted start date wealth still intact, often more, so you both had the return of your money, via installments, and ended with your money ... have cake and eat it (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_can%27t_have_your_cake_and_eat_it)
Hi Tom
As per that 50/50 Dow/Gold example combined stock and gold make a good form of 'cash'
If you AIM'd cash, as in T-Bills, inflation adjusted value
where stock/gold was that AIM's 'cash', then there was enough volatility over time for AIM to have triggered some trades, but in a slow/progressive type manner.
AIM tends to trigger more sells than buys, so during that (poorly compressed/resized image taken from https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=3fqTTtRsACmPzhrurnRA8y ) 1980 to 1999 rise it would have been repeatedly selling T-Bills to add to stock/gold ... a form of momentum stance. And where over those years typically the interest paid on T-Bills declined from double digit type levels right down to low single digit levels. That's a complete opposite to more usual AIM that is anti-momentum, buys more as prices decline, reduces as prices rise.
From 2000, like the mid/late 1970's it would have been selling T-Bills to add to stock/gold (AIM CASH)
Not the best of choices, but a outside-of-box mind direct. It could be beneficial to have a momentum based AIM alongside anti-momentum AIM(s) as a diversifier.
Perhaps a better example is if you compare 50/50 stock/cash with 75/25 stock/gold ... i.e. as though 50/50 stock/gold were held instead of cash (T-Bills). PV indicates that comparison to have had the latter exhibiting a 2.9% or so higher CAGR https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=1Ort6gg4puv9lsmluN4YFB
Similarly comparing 50/50 stock/gold with cash https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=13OlRmhaOaPNXkom8hXlzC saw a near 6% higher CAGR for stock/gold.
AIM can at times hold significant amounts of 'cash'. If/when that cash yields a higher return then obviously so also does the overall portfolio rewards reflect that.
Regards.
Clive.
50/50 yearly rebalanced Dow/Precious Metals, price only growth was reasonable, so on top of additional dividends draw some of those gains and generally that was a reasonable baseline. Add AIM on top, AIM the Dow, where gold is the 'cash', scaling up stock exposure after stock declines, reducing stock exposure at highs and that broadly added a further 2.5% AIM 'dividend' on top.
Hi Tom
Another spreadsheet similar to the S&P500 real price one, except for the Dow real price since 1915, using actual month end values and CPI from FRED. Shiller's S&P500 data uses month average figures instead of month end (doesn't make much difference to the overall AIM).
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AVEZsCY5Sa2ZDP0Ko-q-u4trrpJF6UFk/view?usp=sharing
Hi Toofuzzy
Sorry missed your post. Better late than never.
Hi MakeItJake
First you need to define what 'it' is :)
This is a libreoffice .ods version of AIMBare https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PqTRsZ-7PKgJR80QjCx7Bn0aB-rl3jbg/view?usp=sharing loaded with Robert Shiller's monthly S&P500 real share price since 1871, that is AIM'd and the year end AIM %CASH is reflected once/year into your actual portfolio. If AIM CASH is negative assume 0% cash for the real world portfolio. i.e. rebalance actual portfolio once/year, directed by AIM.
Standard 10% SAFE, 5% of shares minimum trade size AIM settings
Using that AIM's year end stock/cash indicated level to rebalance your portfolio to I then used Simba's spreadsheet to obtain yearly stock total return (I selected Simba's yearly Large Cap Blend stock total returns data as I believe that is based on S&P500 total returns), T-Bill and Inflation values and applied the AIM directed year start %cash (stock/cash blend) to those to identify each years 'actual' portfolio total return. Using T-Bill yearly returns for 'cash' is conservative, when you rebalance once/year you might lock cash into a one year term contract likely for a better rate than what T-Bills paid.
For IH loading of images hover over the top right IH icon, just right of the email icon and open the My Image Gallery choice where images can be uploaded to. I saved some images out of that spreadsheet, edited them to reduce the color scale (make them a smaller filesize) and then uploaded them to IH and use its COPY option to copy the Embeded image code to insert into posts
Those measures reflect actual type outcomes and are indicative of how AIM directed portfolios (once/year rebalanced into alignment with AIM of S&P500 real price) achieved around the same total return as all-stock (log linear regression slopes), but did so with around 40% average cash, and had a superior 30 year SWR than all-stock (that at times was less than 4%)
That's all pretty much standard AIM, the only difference being to use real instead of nominal share price, and to align your actual portfolio to the AIM directed level once/year rather than trading each and every AIM indicated trade. So is nothing particularly new, is still just AIM.
I note improvements if you instead applied the exact same measure (AIM of S&P500 real price) but applied to a actual portfolio that held mid cap blend stocks instead of the S&P500, as were rewards improved if you used gold for CASH (T-Bills pre 1933 when gold was money, and deposited money earned interest, silver from 1933 to 1975 when investment gold was banned in the US, gold from 1976). With that the SWR rose more to 5% type levels and total returns > S&P500 total returns. As can rewards have been improved by tweaking settings. But that's all a form of potential cheating, selectively identifying what worked better in the past to yield a better result. Fundamentally standard AIM applied in the above standard manner (10% SAFE, 5% MTS, monthly reviews ...etc.) worked well, yielded similar total returns to all-stock, but did so with a decent chunk of average cash, tended to add-low/reduce-high etc. all automatically, as is written on the tin. Using different SAFE, MTS, adjusting PC in a different manner - is just more inclined to be what they call data mining, changing things so that things worked better in the past, but that may very well not see those improvements also continuing to work in the future.
What is SWR = safe withdrawal rate, i.e. the initial percentage of the start date portfolio value that could have been drawn/spent in the first year, and where that $$$ amount is uplifted by inflation and drawn for spending in subsequent year. SWR measures are typically made over a 30 year period i.e. a generation (or typical 65 - 95 age type retirement period). So like a inflation uplifted annuity but where you retain control of the capital/value. The reported SWR figure is the single 30 year case that had the worst outcome i.e. in the worst case 30 year period since 1870's for the above you could have applied a 4.5% SWR with 100% success rate, but in that worst case ended with no portfolio value remaining after 30 years, all-spent. Average (all other) cases and some portfolio value would have remained, often more in real (after inflation) terms than what you started the 30 years with.
As a compliment (or alternative) to the vWave I'd suggest a simple current S&P500 / prior months CPI index value as the 'real S&P500 input price to that AIM style as that makes it very simple to manage the AIM (given that CPI is a late reported figure). Using the one month lagged CPI broadly made no difference to outcomes. Rebalancing your actual portfolio value once/year also opens up potentially improving returns on 'cash' as well as simplifying tax reporting.
Overall AIM was superior to just 100% stock buy and hold. Broadly provided the same total returns, but better supported SWR (higher SWR), and held a decent amount on average in cash that might have be 'worked' to improve upon rewards.
Clive.
Hi MakeItJake
For real price AIM I have a column for the share price (S&P500 index value for instance), another column for the CPI index, such as the data from FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL, and the actual AIM real price which is the S&P500 index / CPI index value. As CPI is a lagging report I've resorted to using the prior months CPI index figure, as I'm not seeing much if any differences in results in doing it that way and it means you don't have to guess and then later revisit each months values.
For PC to be updated by inflation I just take the prior PC, multiply that by the most recent CPI index value, divide by the prior months CPI index value. I also set PC to otherwise remain unchanged, no adding half of any stock value added.
Leaving PC to be updated in the regular AIM like manner (half of any stock values added) is however better IMO. Has more of a feedback loop factor.
If you just align actual portfolio to monthly updated AIM indicated cash levels once/year then you can lower SAFE and minimum trade size settings, the higher frequency of trades don't actually cost anything, they're just traded on paper. 0% BUY SAFE, 10% SELL SAFE, 0% Minimum Trade Size will have the paper AIM trade a lot more, but seems to better align a appropriate year end %CASH value to actually align your real portfolio to, i.e. better aligns PC. For UK MidCap AIM for instance that yielded a higher reward, with lower drawdowns, average around 30% cash but went all-in at reasonable times, had relatively good levels of cash at market highs.
Regards.
Clive
After a period of time, AIM’s Portfolio Control (PC) updates of initially being set to the initial stock purchased value and thereafter increased by half of any subsequent stock purchase values … learns … is a form of AI, a cog in the AIM machine. Once settled by a period of time after the initial starting of a AIM we observed a -0.65 inverse correlation of PC / CPI compared to S&P index / CPI monthly measures.
Assume a simple stock model of stock index price tending to offset inflation, dividends paid out on top. If that were not the case then share prices that consistently ran ahead of inflation would be destined to become unaffordable. If share prices consistently lagged inflation they’d be destined to become excessively cheap. Economic cycles however result in deviations around a nice progressive inflation pacing price increase rate and at times stock prices might be relatively high, or low.
If PC were only updated by CPI then in real terms it would be a linear line. PC as-is fluctuates. PC is the ‘central’ value around which AIM opts to trade. If you buy in at a relative high then expecting the same inflation pacing return as if you bought in at a low is …. unreasonable. The standard manner in which AIM updates has PC learn and adjusts for that.
If after starting your stock value rises in real terms at a fair lick, above average, you bought in at a relative low, then PC increase rate is inclined to be relatively lowered (inverse correlation). If after starting your stock value rises relatively slowly in real terms then PC is inclined to be increased. In effect AIM is saying that if you bought in at a low then your ‘central’ line around which AIM trades should be raised, likely/perhaps to faster than inflation. Similarly if you bought in at a relative high then it directs you towards a central line that may lag inflation. A reasonable reflection of what investments might generally encounter, buy in at a high and rewards are inclined to be relatively lower than if you bought in at a low.
Robert Lichello called it the Automatic Investment Management … in the modern day it might alternatively be called a Artificial Intelligence Machine :)
Hi Investor Will
Hi Investor Will
Hi Steve
New version of the spreadsheet just uploaded, extended to include SWR measures and a toggle to either have AIM CASH set to zero whenever it goes negative, or leave it as is.
BJ7 and Z20 are the only two cells you might like to change and all of the charts/data should update to reflect those changes
I only use margin/leverage as a direct alternative to 1x. Need $5K of cash - so sell $10K of 1x stock (SPY), buy $5K of 2x stock (SSO) and you've borrowed from the portfolio at a effective cost of the overnight rate of interest. Or as a means to reduce counter party risk, $100K in 2x, $100K in cash instead of $200K in 1x stock.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=u21mslG1Ajv3VTukTjnD1
For that spreadsheet I linked to I'd like to point out that there are two options for how paper-AIM negative cash might be handled. As-is, column Z, "New Parameters for CASH $$$" is permitted to go negative, takes longer to return to being positive again, requiring more sales to do so. So our yearly lookup of the AIM cash and seeing it negative, opting for 0% cash for our actual portfolio, stays all-in for longer, potentially a decade or more.
The other option is to set that column Z value to zero if negative, in which case the first sale trade will have the AIM showing some cash again, and our yearly actual portfolio review will reflect that.
With the latter you may be selling some shares at a loss, and the tendency is to average a higher overall weighing in cash. As a guide I measured the differences for 1871 onward paper-AIM and noted the following
With setting column Z as-is, letting cash go negative the broad average cash = 24% average, 26% median, compared to 38% average, 43% median when column Z was set to zero if it was negative.
Total return wise, the lower average cash yielded a 7.1% annualized, compared to 6.75% (compared to 6.57% for 100% S&P500).
From a 30 year SWR perspective the worst case of 4.78% when column Z was left as-is, in contrast saw a 5.1% worst case for when column Z values were set to zero if negative. Whilst the worst case was better, the average 30 year SWR was lower, 7.1% versus 7.5%
So as a 'executive summary', the spreadsheet as-is is more aggressive, when a deep stock decline occurs its AIM-CASH moves negative, is all-in stock, and it takes longer for that to see paper-AIM cash reserves level return to being positive, 100% stock all-in, maybe for a decade or more, that is also reflected into the real world portfolio. In turn that averages less overall cash weighting - which increased the overall average rewards (higher annualized) but at the cost of more volatility and a slightly lower 30 year SWR (4.78% versus 5.1%). On average total, median/typical case, it was around 0.4% annualised more rewarding.
From a personal perspective I prefer the higher SWR, slightly less rewarding choice i.e. to set column Z cash to zero if its negative, acceptance of maybe selling some shares at a loss as sales trades occur. For me the higher/better worst case SWR (5.1% instead of 4.78%) has the greater appeal. Average (median) case outcome of 0.4%/year less when the rewards are generally good anyway, is a acceptable 'cost' (missed opportunity). More so considering that I'd be more comfortable in not having perhaps a decade or more of time at 100% all in stock levels (AIM down after a deep dive, waiting for price recovery before any cash was again made available).
Somewhat like preferring a 58/42 average stock/cash blend to that of a 74/26 blend, based on data since 1871.
To modify the spreadsheet so as to set AIM cash to zero if it moves negative change cell Z29
from
=IF(B29<>"",IF(W29<>"",E29-X29,E29),"")
to
=IF(B29<>"",IF(W29<>"",IF(E29-X29<0,0,E29-X29),IF(E29<0,0,E29)),"")
and then copy that cell and paste that into all cells from Z30 downwards.
Hi MakeItJake
Conceptually stock prices should broadly advance with inflation + growth/productivity (science/technology), such as a single man in a machine farming a field that previously took a army of workers to harvest. With dividends on top. The UK FT All Share has broadly flat lined in those terms. A characteristic of the US is that in the mid 1980's changes to taxation policies promoted more of earnings being retained, so since then US stock prices have advanced at a faster rate, whilst dividends are lower. AIM of real price makes the swings around that more visible, whilst incrementing PC after each buy trade broadly keeps it central. With nominal prices things are more opaque - for instance is a 8% a good or poor return ... is subjective, in a year of 2% inflation = OK, in a year of 10% inflation = poor.
AIM of real share price tends to be more like in the book, zigzags both up and down around a central level. AIM of nominal prices - tends to lead to cash accumulation, might see a initial 50/50 stock/cash end up at 33/67 stock/cash.
Trading every AIM indicated trade will either see the trend continue, in which case having deferred the trade would have been better, or reverse, in which case the trade timing was good. 50/50 probabilities such that accumulating all AIM trades across the year to make one big trade (rebalance event) once/year - broadly washes. Tracking a major index reduces the risk of a deep dive and stays down or even failure event. Many assume AIM is best fed high volatility holdings and it can works those well, but it can also work well as a slow-AIM as I believe TooFuzzy calls it. AIM is fractal, works at both the small and large scale. One of its greatest attributes is how it directs you to actually trade in a rewarding manner, where otherwise if left to ones own devices often individuals do the complete opposite (buy high, capitulate low).
Best wishes
Clive
Googledrive Excel 2007 spreadsheet of AIMbare loaded with AIM of S&P500 real price data since 1969
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EOmOJFEeB8IUUeym49T9rBwiqO0jMycM/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105608103757702247061&rtpof=true&sd=true
Hi Tom
I see similar mid/longer term outcomes when AIM is applied in the same manner for UK midcaps (small cap in US scale), and World index/funds, similar rewards to all-stock but with 40% or so average cash being longer term typical. Easier to manage also, 12 monthly paper-AIM reviews/year, maybe even all updated at the same sitting, and align actual portfolio weights to that once/year.
I have a AIM calculator to aid that, just need to store PC, #S, AIM-CASH and look up the current S&P500 index and CPI figures (whatever) in order to perform the calculation.
AIM performs a exceptional job of having you heavily/all in at lows, profit taking at highs.
The high cash-cow element is great, provides capital for where if you better cash you bolster overall portfolio rewards. My last couple of positions had me go heavily in (long) just 20 minutes before the General Election news was called by the Prime Minister, lousy timing and took 7 weeks to recover. The subsequent week I made around $13K in a quick in/out position, a world stock/silver blend that had good value (high gold/silver ratio and the world stock fund was at a 9% discount to NAV i.e. positions I wouldn't have minded holding mid/longer term). More than covered medical care/treatment costs for 100+ seborrheic keratosis removal that I've been meaning to have removed since pre-Covid days. Still in (cosmetic) recovery, looking (and feeling) like I paint-balled at a nudest colony :)
You shouldn't be thanking me as is all us others that should be thanking you for all your efforts and sharing over the decades.
Thanks Tom
Clive
Hi Tom
AIM spreadsheet For S&P500 since 1871 data. AIM's the real (after inflation) S&P500 price
Doesn't display well within google-spreadsheet (online), but displays fine when downloaded as a Excel .xlsx and viewed locally (at least when using LibreOffice)
Includes data/results when you run that as a paper AIM and trade once/year to realign stock/cash (T-Bills) actual weightings to the AIM indicated prior year end AIM %CASH level. Which is like trading all of the years AIM trades, in a single combined trade. Which also means you can tie cash up for a year at a time (potentially better interest rates)
For earlier years I used Shiller's monthly data for S&P price only values, yahoo adjusted close prices for later years
As Shiller presents monthly values of each months value I used the average of the current and next months figures to approximate month end values/ Yahoo later data reflects actual month end values.
Each of those month end values were then divided by the CPI value to identify the months 'real' S&P500 price ... that is used as the AIM input.
Shiller S&P Month avg. Shiller CPI Date
(yahoo
from 1985)
4.44 12.46 1871.01
4.50 12.84 1871.02
4.61 13.03 1871.03
4.74 12.56 1871.04
4.86 12.27 1871.05
4.82 12.08 1871.06
4.73 12.08 1871.07
4.79 11.89 1871.08
4.84 12.18 1871.09
4.59 12.37 1871.1
4.64 12.37 1871.11
4.74 12.65 1871.12
4.86 12.65 1872.01
4.88 12.65 1872.02
5.04 12.84 1872.03
5.18 13.13 1872.04
5.18 13.13 1872.05
5.13 13.03 1872.06
5.10 12.84 1872.07
5.04 12.94 1872.08
4.95 13.03 1872.09
4.97 12.75 1872.1
4.95 13.13 1872.11
5.07 12.94 1872.12
5.11 12.94 1873.01
5.15 13.23 1873.02
5.11 13.23 1873.03
5.04 13.23 1873.04
5.05 12.94 1873.05
4.98 12.56 1873.06
4.97 12.56 1873.07
4.97 12.56 1873.08
4.59 12.56 1873.09
4.19 12.27 1873.1
4.04 11.89 1873.11
4.42 12.18 1873.12
4.66 12.37 1874.01
4.80 12.37 1874.02
4.73 12.37 1874.03
4.60 12.18 1874.04
4.48 12.08 1874.05
4.46 11.80 1874.06
4.46 11.89 1874.07
4.47 11.80 1874.08
4.54 11.80 1874.09
4.53 11.61 1874.1
4.57 11.51 1874.11
4.54 11.51 1874.12
4.54 11.51 1875.01
4.53 11.51 1875.02
4.59 11.51 1875.03
4.65 11.61 1875.04
4.47 11.32 1875.05
4.38 11.13 1875.06
4.39 11.13 1875.07
4.41 11.23 1875.08
4.37 11.13 1875.09
4.30 11.13 1875.1
4.37 11.04 1875.11
4.37 10.94 1875.12
4.46 10.85 1876.01
4.52 10.85 1876.02
4.51 10.85 1876.03
4.34 10.75 1876.04
4.18 10.37 1876.05
4.15 10.09 1876.06
4.10 10.09 1876.07
3.93 10.18 1876.08
3.69 10.28 1876.09
3.67 10.47 1876.1
3.60 10.56 1876.11
3.58 10.75 1876.12
3.55 10.94 1877.01
3.34 10.66 1877.02
3.17 10.18 1877.03
2.94 10.47 1877.04
2.94 10.66 1877.05
2.73 10.09 1877.06
2.85 10.18 1877.07
3.05 9.80 1877.08
3.24 9.70 1877.09
3.31 9.70 1877.1
3.26 9.51 1877.11
3.25 9.51 1877.12
3.25 9.23 1878.01
3.18 9.13 1878.02
3.24 8.94 1878.03
3.33 8.85 1878.04
3.34 8.56 1878.05
3.41 8.37 1878.06
3.48 8.47 1878.07
3.45 8.56 1878.08
3.52 8.56 1878.09
3.48 8.47 1878.1
3.47 8.37 1878.11
3.45 8.18 1878.12
3.58 8.28 1879.01
3.71 8.37 1879.02
3.65 8.28 1879.03
3.77 8.18 1879.04
3.94 8.18 1879.05
3.96 8.09 1879.06
4.04 8.18 1879.07
4.07 8.18 1879.08
4.22 8.47 1879.09
4.68 8.94 1879.1
4.93 9.42 1879.11
4.92 9.70 1879.12
5.11 9.99 1880.01
5.20 9.99 1880.02
5.30 10.09 1880.03
5.18 9.70 1880.04
4.77 9.42 1880.05
4.79 9.23 1880.06
5.01 9.23 1880.07
5.19 9.23 1880.08
5.18 9.32 1880.09
5.33 9.32 1880.1
5.61 9.42 1880.11
5.84 9.51 1880.12
6.19 9.42 1881.01
6.17 9.51 1881.02
6.24 9.51 1881.03
6.22 9.61 1881.04
6.50 9.51 1881.05
6.58 9.51 1881.06
6.35 9.61 1881.07
6.20 9.80 1881.08
6.25 10.18 1881.09
6.15 10.28 1881.1
6.19 10.18 1881.11
6.01 10.18 1881.12
5.92 10.18 1882.01
5.79 10.28 1882.02
5.78 10.28 1882.03
5.78 10.37 1882.04
5.71 10.47 1882.05
5.68 10.56 1882.06
6.00 10.47 1882.07
6.18 10.56 1882.08
6.24 10.28 1882.09
6.07 10.18 1882.1
5.81 10.09 1882.11
5.84 9.99 1882.12
5.81 9.99 1883.01
5.68 10.09 1883.02
5.75 9.99 1883.03
5.87 9.90 1883.04
5.77 9.80 1883.05
5.82 9.51 1883.06
5.73 9.32 1883.07
5.47 9.32 1883.08
5.53 9.23 1883.09
5.38 9.23 1883.1
5.46 9.13 1883.11
5.34 9.23 1883.12
5.18 9.23 1884.01
5.32 9.23 1884.02
5.30 9.23 1884.03
5.06 9.04 1884.04
4.65 8.85 1884.05
4.46 8.85 1884.06
4.46 8.75 1884.07
4.74 8.75 1884.08
4.59 8.66 1884.09
4.44 8.56 1884.1
4.35 8.37 1884.11
4.34 8.28 1884.12
4.24 8.28 1885.01
4.37 8.37 1885.02
4.38 8.18 1885.03
4.37 8.28 1885.04
4.32 8.09 1885.05
4.30 7.90 1885.06
4.46 7.99 1885.07
4.71 7.99 1885.08
4.65 7.90 1885.09
4.92 7.90 1885.1
5.24 7.99 1885.11
5.20 8.18 1885.12
5.20 7.99 1886.01
5.30 7.99 1886.02
5.19 7.90 1886.03
5.12 7.80 1886.04
5.02 7.61 1886.05
5.25 7.52 1886.06
5.33 7.61 1886.07
5.37 7.71 1886.08
5.51 7.71 1886.09
5.65 7.71 1886.1
5.79 7.71 1886.11
5.64 7.80 1886.12
5.58 7.99 1887.01
5.54 8.09 1887.02
5.67 8.09 1887.03
5.80 8.09 1887.04
5.90 8.09 1887.05
5.73 7.99 1887.06
5.59 7.90 1887.07
5.45 7.99 1887.08
5.38 7.90 1887.09
5.20 7.99 1887.1
5.30 8.09 1887.11
5.27 8.28 1887.12
5.31 8.37 1888.01
5.28 8.28 1888.02
5.08 8.28 1888.03
5.10 8.18 1888.04
5.17 8.09 1888.05
5.01 7.99 1888.06
5.14 8.09 1888.07
5.25 8.09 1888.08
5.38 8.09 1888.09
5.35 8.18 1888.1
5.24 8.28 1888.11
5.14 8.28 1888.12
5.24 7.99 1889.01
5.30 7.90 1889.02
5.19 7.80 1889.03
5.18 7.80 1889.04
5.32 7.61 1889.05
5.41 7.61 1889.06
5.30 7.61 1889.07
5.37 7.61 1889.08
5.50 7.71 1889.09
5.40 7.71 1889.1
5.35 7.71 1889.11
5.32 7.80 1889.12
5.38 7.61 1890.01
5.32 7.61 1890.02
5.28 7.61 1890.03
5.39 7.61 1890.04
5.62 7.71 1890.05
5.58 7.71 1890.06
5.54 7.71 1890.07
5.41 7.99 1890.08
5.32 8.09 1890.09
5.08 8.09 1890.1
4.71 7.90 1890.11
4.60 7.90 1890.12
4.84 7.80 1891.01
4.90 7.90 1891.02
4.81 7.99 1891.03
4.97 8.09 1891.04
4.95 7.99 1891.05
4.85 7.80 1891.06
4.77 7.71 1891.07
4.93 7.71 1891.08
5.33 7.61 1891.09
5.33 7.61 1891.1
5.25 7.52 1891.11
5.41 7.52 1891.12
5.51 7.33 1892.01
5.52 7.33 1892.02
5.58 7.14 1892.03
5.57 7.04 1892.04
5.57 7.04 1892.05
5.54 7.04 1892.06
5.54 7.23 1892.07
5.62 7.33 1892.08
5.48 7.33 1892.09
5.59 7.33 1892.1
5.57 7.52 1892.11
5.51 7.61 1892.12
5.61 7.90 1893.01
5.51 7.99 1893.02
5.31 7.80 1893.03
5.31 7.71 1893.04
4.84 7.61 1893.05
4.61 7.42 1893.06
4.18 7.23 1893.07
4.08 6.95 1893.08
4.37 7.23 1893.09
4.50 7.33 1893.1
4.57 7.14 1893.11
4.41 7.04 1893.12
4.32 6.85 1894.01
4.38 6.76 1894.02
4.51 6.57 1894.03
4.57 6.57 1894.04
4.40 6.57 1894.05
4.34 6.57 1894.06
4.25 6.57 1894.07
4.41 6.76 1894.08
4.48 6.85 1894.09
4.34 6.66 1894.1
4.34 6.66 1894.11
4.30 6.57 1894.12
4.25 6.57 1895.01
4.19 6.57 1895.02
4.19 6.57 1895.03
4.37 6.85 1895.04
4.61 6.95 1895.05
4.70 7.04 1895.06
4.72 6.95 1895.07
4.79 6.85 1895.08
4.82 6.85 1895.09
4.75 6.85 1895.1
4.59 6.85 1895.11
4.32 6.76 1895.12
4.27 6.66 1896.01
4.45 6.57 1896.02
4.38 6.57 1896.03
4.42 6.47 1896.04
4.40 6.37 1896.05
4.32 6.28 1896.06
4.04 6.28 1896.07
3.81 6.28 1896.08
4.01 6.28 1896.09
4.10 6.47 1896.1
4.38 6.66 1896.11
4.22 6.66 1896.12
4.22 6.47 1897.01
4.18 6.47 1897.02
4.19 6.47 1897.03
4.06 6.37 1897.04
4.08 6.28 1897.05
4.27 6.28 1897.06
4.46 6.28 1897.07
4.75 6.57 1897.08
4.98 6.76 1897.09
4.82 6.66 1897.1
4.65 6.66 1897.11
4.75 6.66 1897.12
4.88 6.66 1898.01
4.87 6.76 1898.02
4.65 6.76 1898.03
4.57 6.76 1898.04
4.87 7.23 1898.05
5.06 6.76 1898.06
5.08 6.66 1898.07
5.27 6.66 1898.08
5.26 6.66 1898.09
5.15 6.66 1898.1
5.32 6.66 1898.11
5.65 6.76 1898.12
6.08 6.76 1899.01
6.31 6.95 1899.02
6.40 6.95 1899.03
6.48 7.04 1899.04
6.21 7.04 1899.05
6.07 7.14 1899.06
6.28 7.23 1899.07
6.44 7.33 1899.08
6.37 7.61 1899.09
6.34 7.71 1899.1
6.46 7.80 1899.11
6.02 7.90 1899.12
6.10 7.90 1900.01
6.21 7.99 1900.02
6.26 7.99 1900.03
6.34 7.99 1900.04
6.04 7.80 1900.05
5.86 7.71 1900.06
5.86 7.80 1900.07
5.94 7.71 1900.08
5.80 7.80 1900.09
6.01 7.71 1900.1
6.48 7.71 1900.11
6.87 7.61 1900.12
7.07 7.71 1901.01
7.25 7.61 1901.02
7.51 7.61 1901.03
8.14 7.52 1901.04
7.73 7.52 1901.05
8.50 7.52 1901.06
7.93 7.61 1901.07
8.04 7.71 1901.08
8.00 7.80 1901.09
7.91 7.80 1901.1
8.08 7.90 1901.11
7.95 7.99 1901.12
8.12 7.90 1902.01
8.19 7.90 1902.02
8.20 7.90 1902.03
8.48 7.99 1902.04
8.46 8.09 1902.05
8.41 8.18 1902.06
8.60 8.18 1902.07
8.83 8.09 1902.08
8.85 8.18 1902.09
8.57 8.75 1902.1
8.24 8.47 1902.11
8.05 8.56 1902.12
8.46 8.66 1903.01
8.41 8.66 1903.02
8.08 8.37 1903.03
7.75 8.37 1903.04
7.60 8.18 1903.05
7.18 8.18 1903.06
6.85 8.18 1903.07
6.63 8.18 1903.08
6.47 8.28 1903.09
6.26 8.18 1903.1
6.28 8.09 1903.11
6.57 8.09 1903.12
6.68 8.28 1904.01
6.50 8.47 1904.02
6.48 8.37 1904.03
6.64 8.28 1904.04
6.50 8.09 1904.05
6.51 8.09 1904.06
6.78 8.09 1904.07
7.01 8.18 1904.08
7.32 8.28 1904.09
7.75 8.28 1904.1
8.17 8.47 1904.11
8.25 8.47 1904.12
8.43 8.47 1905.01
8.80 8.47 1905.02
9.05 8.37 1905.03
8.94 8.37 1905.04
8.50 8.28 1905.05
8.60 8.28 1905.06
8.87 8.28 1905.07
9.20 8.37 1905.08
9.23 8.28 1905.09
9.36 8.28 1905.1
9.31 8.37 1905.11
9.54 8.47 1905.12
9.87 8.47 1906.01
9.80 8.47 1906.02
9.56 8.47 1906.03
9.43 8.47 1906.04
9.18 8.56 1906.05
9.30 8.56 1906.06
9.06 8.28 1906.07
9.73 8.47 1906.08
10.03 8.56 1906.09
9.73 8.75 1906.1
9.93 8.85 1906.11
9.84 8.94 1906.12
9.56 8.85 1907.01
9.26 9.04 1907.02
8.35 8.94 1907.03
8.39 8.94 1907.04
8.10 9.13 1907.05
7.84 9.23 1907.06
8.14 9.23 1907.07
7.53 9.23 1907.08
7.45 9.23 1907.09
6.64 9.32 1907.1
6.25 8.94 1907.11
6.57 8.75 1907.12
6.85 8.66 1908.01
6.60 8.56 1908.02
6.87 8.56 1908.03
7.24 8.66 1908.04
7.63 8.66 1908.05
7.64 8.66 1908.06
7.92 8.75 1908.07
8.26 8.75 1908.08
8.17 8.75 1908.09
8.27 8.85 1908.1
8.83 8.94 1908.11
9.03 9.04 1908.12
9.06 8.94 1909.01
8.80 9.04 1909.02
8.92 9.04 1909.03
9.32 9.23 1909.04
9.63 9.32 1909.05
9.80 9.42 1909.06
9.94 9.42 1909.07
10.18 9.51 1909.08
10.19 9.61 1909.09
10.23 9.80 1909.1
10.18 9.90 1909.11
10.30 9.99 1909.12
10.08 9.90 1910.01
9.72 9.90 1910.02
9.96 10.09 1910.03
9.72 10.18 1910.04
9.56 9.99 1910.05
9.10 9.90 1910.06
8.64 9.90 1910.07
8.85 9.80 1910.08
8.91 9.70 1910.09
9.32 9.42 1910.1
9.31 9.23 1910.11
9.05 9.23 1910.12
9.27 9.23 1911.01
9.43 8.94 1911.02
9.32 9.04 1911.03
9.28 8.75 1911.04
9.48 8.75 1911.05
9.67 8.75 1911.06
9.63 8.85 1911.07
9.17 9.13 1911.08
8.67 9.23 1911.09
8.72 9.23 1911.1
9.07 9.13 1911.11
9.11 9.04 1911.12
9.12 9.13 1912.01
9.04 9.23 1912.02
9.30 9.42 1912.03
9.59 9.70 1912.04
9.58 9.70 1912.05
9.58 9.61 1912.06
9.59 9.61 1912.07
9.81 9.70 1912.08
9.86 9.80 1912.09
9.84 9.80 1912.1
9.73 9.80 1912.11
9.38 9.70 1912.12
9.30 9.80 1913.01
8.97 9.80 1913.02
8.80 9.80 1913.03
8.79 9.80 1913.04
8.55 9.70 1913.05
8.12 9.80 1913.06
8.23 9.90 1913.07
8.45 9.90 1913.08
8.53 10.00 1913.09
8.26 10.00 1913.1
8.05 10.10 1913.11
8.04 10.00 1913.12
8.37 10.00 1914.01
8.48 9.90 1914.02
8.32 9.90 1914.03
8.12 9.80 1914.04
8.17 9.90 1914.05
8.13 9.90 1914.06
7.68 10.00 1914.07
7.68 10.20 1914.08
7.68 10.20 1914.09
7.68 10.10 1914.1
7.68 10.20 1914.11
7.35 10.10 1914.12
7.48 10.10 1915.01
7.38 10.00 1915.02
7.57 9.90 1915.03
8.14 10.00 1915.04
7.95 10.10 1915.05
8.04 10.10 1915.06
8.01 10.10 1915.07
8.35 10.10 1915.08
8.66 10.10 1915.09
9.14 10.20 1915.1
9.46 10.30 1915.11
9.48 10.30 1915.12
9.33 10.40 1916.01
9.20 10.40 1916.02
9.17 10.50 1916.03
9.07 10.60 1916.04
9.27 10.70 1916.05
9.36 10.80 1916.06
9.23 10.80 1916.07
9.30 10.90 1916.08
9.68 11.10 1916.09
9.98 11.30 1916.1
10.21 11.50 1916.11
9.80 11.60 1916.12
9.57 11.70 1917.01
9.03 12.00 1917.02
9.31 12.00 1917.03
9.17 12.60 1917.04
8.86 12.80 1917.05
9.04 13.00 1917.06
8.79 12.80 1917.07
8.53 13.00 1917.08
8.12 13.30 1917.09
7.68 13.50 1917.1
7.04 13.50 1917.11
6.80 13.70 1917.12
7.21 14.00 1918.01
7.43 14.10 1918.02
7.28 14.00 1918.03
7.21 14.20 1918.04
7.44 14.50 1918.05
7.45 14.70 1918.06
7.51 15.10 1918.07
7.58 15.40 1918.08
7.54 15.70 1918.09
7.86 16.00 1918.1
8.06 16.30 1918.11
7.90 16.50 1918.12
7.85 16.50 1919.01
7.88 16.20 1919.02
8.12 16.40 1919.03
8.39 16.70 1919.04
8.97 16.90 1919.05
9.21 16.90 1919.06
9.51 17.40 1919.07
8.87 17.70 1919.08
9.01 17.80 1919.09
9.47 18.10 1919.1
9.19 18.50 1919.11
8.92 18.90 1919.12
8.83 19.30 1920.01
8.10 19.50 1920.02
8.67 19.70 1920.03
8.60 20.30 1920.04
8.06 20.60 1920.05
7.92 20.90 1920.06
7.91 20.80 1920.07
7.60 20.30 1920.08
7.87 20.00 1920.09
7.88 19.90 1920.1
7.48 19.80 1920.11
6.81 19.40 1920.12
7.11 19.00 1921.01
7.06 18.40 1921.02
6.88 18.30 1921.03
6.91 18.10 1921.04
7.12 17.70 1921.05
6.55 17.60 1921.06
6.53 17.70 1921.07
6.45 17.70 1921.08
6.61 17.50 1921.09
6.70 17.50 1921.1
7.06 17.40 1921.11
7.31 17.30 1921.12
7.30 16.90 1922.01
7.46 16.90 1922.02
7.74 16.70 1922.03
8.21 16.70 1922.04
8.53 16.70 1922.05
8.45 16.70 1922.06
8.51 16.80 1922.07
8.83 16.60 1922.08
9.06 16.60 1922.09
9.26 16.70 1922.1
8.80 16.80 1922.11
8.78 16.90 1922.12
8.90 16.80 1923.01
9.28 16.80 1923.02
9.43 16.80 1923.03
9.10 16.90 1923.04
8.67 16.90 1923.05
8.34 17.00 1923.06
8.06 17.20 1923.07
8.10 17.10 1923.08
8.15 17.20 1923.09
8.03 17.30 1923.1
8.27 17.30 1923.11
8.55 17.30 1923.12
8.83 17.30 1924.01
8.87 17.20 1924.02
8.70 17.10 1924.03
8.50 17.00 1924.04
8.47 17.00 1924.05
8.63 17.00 1924.06
9.03 17.10 1924.07
9.34 17.00 1924.08
9.25 17.10 1924.09
9.13 17.20 1924.1
9.64 17.20 1924.11
10.16 17.30 1924.12
10.58 17.30 1925.01
10.67 17.20 1925.02
10.39 17.30 1925.03
10.28 17.20 1925.04
10.61 17.30 1925.05
10.80 17.50 1925.06
11.10 17.70 1925.07
11.25 17.70 1925.08
11.51 17.70 1925.09
11.89 17.70 1925.1
12.26 18.00 1925.11
12.46 17.90 1925.12
12.65 17.90 1926.01
12.67 17.90 1926.02
11.81 17.80 1926.03
11.48 17.90 1926.04
11.56 17.80 1926.05
12.11 17.70 1926.06
12.62 17.50 1926.07
13.12 17.40 1926.08
13.32 17.50 1926.09
13.02 17.60 1926.1
13.19 17.70 1926.11
13.49 17.70 1926.12
13.40 17.50 1927.01
13.66 17.40 1927.02
13.87 17.30 1927.03
14.21 17.30 1927.04
14.70 17.40 1927.05
14.89 17.60 1927.06
15.22 17.30 1927.07
16.03 17.20 1927.08
16.94 17.30 1927.09
16.68 17.40 1927.1
17.06 17.30 1927.11
17.46 17.30 1927.12
17.53 17.30 1928.01
17.32 17.10 1928.02
18.25 17.10 1928.03
19.40 17.10 1928.04
20.00 17.20 1928.05
19.02 17.10 1928.06
19.16 17.10 1928.07
19.78 17.10 1928.08
21.17 17.30 1928.09
21.60 17.20 1928.1
23.06 17.20 1928.11
23.15 17.10 1928.12
24.86 17.10 1929.01
24.99 17.10 1929.02
25.43 17.00 1929.03
25.28 16.90 1929.04
25.66 17.00 1929.05
26.15 17.10 1929.06
28.48 17.30 1929.07
30.10 17.30 1929.08
31.30 17.30 1929.09
27.99 17.30 1929.1
20.58 17.30 1929.11
21.40 17.20 1929.12
21.71 17.10 1930.01
23.07 17.00 1930.02
23.94 16.90 1930.03
25.46 17.00 1930.04
23.94 16.90 1930.05
21.52 16.80 1930.06
21.06 16.60 1930.07
20.79 16.50 1930.08
20.78 16.60 1930.09
17.92 16.50 1930.1
16.62 16.40 1930.11
15.51 16.10 1930.12
15.98 15.90 1931.01
17.20 15.70 1931.02
17.53 15.60 1931.03
15.86 15.50 1931.04
14.33 15.30 1931.05
13.87 15.10 1931.06
14.33 15.10 1931.07
13.90 15.10 1931.08
11.83 15.00 1931.09
10.25 14.90 1931.1
10.39 14.70 1931.11
8.44 14.60 1931.12
8.30 14.30 1932.01
8.23 14.10 1932.02
8.26 14.00 1932.03
6.28 13.90 1932.04
5.51 13.70 1932.05
4.77 13.60 1932.06
5.01 13.60 1932.07
7.53 13.50 1932.08
8.26 13.40 1932.09
7.12 13.30 1932.1
7.05 13.20 1932.11
6.82 13.10 1932.12
7.09 12.90 1933.01
6.25 12.70 1933.02
6.23 12.60 1933.03
6.89 12.60 1933.04
8.87 12.60 1933.05
10.39 12.70 1933.06
11.23 13.10 1933.07
10.67 13.20 1933.08
10.58 13.20 1933.09
9.55 13.20 1933.1
9.78 13.20 1933.11
9.97 13.20 1933.12
10.54 13.20 1934.01
11.32 13.30 1934.02
10.74 13.30 1934.03
10.92 13.30 1934.04
9.81 13.30 1934.05
9.94 13.40 1934.06
9.47 13.40 1934.07
9.10 13.40 1934.08
8.88 13.60 1934.09
8.95 13.50 1934.1
9.20 13.50 1934.11
9.26 13.40 1934.12
9.26 13.60 1935.01
8.98 13.70 1935.02
8.41 13.70 1935.03
9.04 13.80 1935.04
9.75 13.80 1935.05
10.12 13.70 1935.06
10.65 13.70 1935.07
11.37 13.70 1935.08
11.61 13.70 1935.09
11.92 13.70 1935.1
13.04 13.80 1935.11
13.04 13.80 1935.12
13.76 13.80 1936.01
14.55 13.80 1936.02
14.86 13.70 1936.03
14.88 13.70 1936.04
14.09 13.70 1936.05
14.69 13.80 1936.06
15.56 13.90 1936.07
15.87 14.00 1936.08
16.05 14.00 1936.09
16.89 14.00 1936.1
17.36 14.00 1936.11
17.06 14.00 1936.12
17.59 14.10 1937.01
18.11 14.10 1937.02
18.09 14.20 1937.03
17.01 14.30 1937.04
16.25 14.40 1937.05
15.64 14.40 1937.06
16.57 14.50 1937.07
16.74 14.50 1937.08
14.37 14.60 1937.09
12.28 14.60 1937.1
11.20 14.50 1937.11
11.02 14.40 1937.12
11.31 14.20 1938.01
11.04 14.10 1938.02
10.31 14.10 1938.03
9.89 14.20 1938.04
9.98 14.10 1938.05
10.21 14.10 1938.06
12.24 14.10 1938.07
12.31 14.10 1938.08
11.75 14.10 1938.09
13.06 14.00 1938.1
13.07 14.00 1938.11
12.69 14.00 1938.12
12.50 14.00 1939.01
12.40 13.90 1939.02
12.39 13.90 1939.03
10.83 13.80 1939.04
11.23 13.80 1939.05
11.43 13.80 1939.06
11.71 13.80 1939.07
11.54 13.80 1939.08
12.77 14.10 1939.09
12.90 14.00 1939.1
12.67 14.00 1939.11
12.37 14.00 1939.12
12.30 13.90 1940.01
12.22 14.00 1940.02
12.15 14.00 1940.03
12.27 14.00 1940.04
10.58 14.00 1940.05
9.67 14.10 1940.06
9.99 14.00 1940.07
10.20 14.00 1940.08
10.63 14.00 1940.09
10.73 14.00 1940.1
10.98 14.00 1940.11
10.53 14.10 1940.12
10.55 14.10 1941.01
9.89 14.10 1941.02
9.95 14.20 1941.03
9.64 14.30 1941.04
9.43 14.40 1941.05
9.76 14.70 1941.06
10.26 14.70 1941.07
10.21 14.90 1941.08
10.24 15.10 1941.09
9.83 15.30 1941.1
9.37 15.40 1941.11
8.76 15.50 1941.12
8.93 15.70 1942.01
8.65 15.80 1942.02
8.18 16.00 1942.03
7.84 16.10 1942.04
7.93 16.30 1942.05
8.33 16.30 1942.06
8.64 16.40 1942.07
8.59 16.50 1942.08
8.68 16.50 1942.09
9.32 16.70 1942.1
9.47 16.80 1942.11
9.52 16.90 1942.12
10.09 16.90 1943.01
10.69 16.90 1943.02
11.07 17.20 1943.03
11.44 17.40 1943.04
11.89 17.50 1943.05
12.10 17.50 1943.06
12.35 17.40 1943.07
11.74 17.30 1943.08
11.99 17.40 1943.09
11.88 17.40 1943.1
11.33 17.40 1943.11
11.48 17.40 1943.12
11.85 17.40 1944.01
11.77 17.40 1944.02
12.10 17.40 1944.03
11.89 17.50 1944.04
12.10 17.50 1944.05
12.67 17.60 1944.06
13.00 17.70 1944.07
12.81 17.70 1944.08
12.60 17.70 1944.09
12.91 17.70 1944.1
12.82 17.70 1944.11
13.10 17.80 1944.12
13.49 17.80 1945.01
13.94 17.80 1945.02
13.93 17.80 1945.03
14.28 17.80 1945.04
14.82 17.90 1945.05
15.09 18.10 1945.06
14.78 18.10 1945.07
14.83 18.10 1945.08
15.84 18.10 1945.09
16.50 18.10 1945.1
17.04 18.10 1945.11
17.33 18.20 1945.12
18.02 18.20 1946.01
18.07 18.10 1946.02
17.53 18.30 1946.03
18.66 18.40 1946.04
18.70 18.50 1946.05
18.58 18.70 1946.06
18.05 19.80 1946.07
17.70 20.20 1946.08
15.09 20.40 1946.09
14.75 20.80 1946.1
14.69 21.30 1946.11
15.13 21.50 1946.12
15.21 21.50 1947.01
15.80 21.50 1947.02
15.16 21.90 1947.03
14.60 21.90 1947.04
14.34 21.90 1947.05
14.84 22.00 1947.06
15.77 22.20 1947.07
15.46 22.50 1947.08
15.06 23.00 1947.09
15.45 23.00 1947.1
15.27 23.10 1947.11
15.03 23.40 1947.12
14.83 23.70 1948.01
14.10 23.50 1948.02
14.30 23.40 1948.03
15.40 23.80 1948.04
16.15 23.90 1948.05
16.82 24.10 1948.06
16.42 24.40 1948.07
15.94 24.50 1948.08
15.76 24.50 1948.09
16.19 24.40 1948.1
15.29 24.20 1948.11
15.19 24.10 1948.12
15.36 24.00 1949.01
14.77 23.80 1949.02
14.91 23.80 1949.03
14.89 23.90 1949.04
14.78 23.80 1949.05
13.97 23.90 1949.06
14.76 23.70 1949.07
15.29 23.80 1949.08
15.49 23.90 1949.09
15.89 23.70 1949.1
16.11 23.80 1949.11
16.54 23.60 1949.12
16.88 23.50 1950.01
17.21 23.50 1950.02
17.35 23.60 1950.03
17.84 23.60 1950.04
18.44 23.70 1950.05
18.74 23.80 1950.06
17.38 24.10 1950.07
18.43 24.30 1950.08
19.08 24.40 1950.09
19.87 24.60 1950.1
19.83 24.70 1950.11
19.75 25.00 1950.12
21.21 25.40 1951.01
22.00 25.70 1951.02
21.63 25.80 1951.03
21.92 25.80 1951.04
21.93 25.90 1951.05
21.55 25.90 1951.06
21.93 25.90 1951.07
22.89 25.90 1951.08
23.48 26.10 1951.09
23.36 26.20 1951.1
22.71 26.40 1951.11
23.41 26.50 1951.12
24.19 26.50 1952.01
23.75 26.30 1952.02
23.81 26.30 1952.03
23.74 26.40 1952.04
23.73 26.40 1952.05
24.38 26.50 1952.06
25.08 26.70 1952.07
25.18 26.70 1952.08
24.78 26.70 1952.09
24.26 26.70 1952.1
25.03 26.70 1952.11
26.04 26.70 1952.12
26.18 26.60 1953.01
25.86 26.50 1953.02
25.99 26.60 1953.03
24.71 26.60 1953.04
24.84 26.70 1953.05
23.95 26.80 1953.06
24.29 26.80 1953.07
24.39 26.90 1953.08
23.27 26.90 1953.09
23.97 27.00 1953.1
24.50 26.90 1953.11
24.83 26.90 1953.12
25.46 26.90 1954.01
26.02 26.90 1954.02
26.57 26.90 1954.03
27.63 26.80 1954.04
28.73 26.90 1954.05
28.96 26.90 1954.06
30.13 26.90 1954.07
30.73 26.90 1954.08
31.45 26.80 1954.09
32.18 26.80 1954.1
33.44 26.80 1954.11
34.97 26.70 1954.12
35.60 26.70 1955.01
36.79 26.70 1955.02
36.50 26.70 1955.03
37.76 26.70 1955.04
37.60 26.70 1955.05
39.78 26.70 1955.06
42.69 26.80 1955.07
42.43 26.80 1955.08
44.34 26.90 1955.09
42.11 26.90 1955.1
44.95 26.90 1955.11
45.37 26.80 1955.12
44.15 26.80 1956.01
44.43 26.80 1956.02
47.49 26.80 1956.03
48.05 26.90 1956.04
46.54 27.00 1956.05
46.27 27.20 1956.06
48.78 27.40 1956.07
48.49 27.30 1956.08
46.84 27.40 1956.09
46.24 27.50 1956.1
45.76 27.50 1956.11
46.44 27.60 1956.12
45.43 27.60 1957.01
43.47 27.70 1957.02
44.03 27.80 1957.03
45.05 27.90 1957.04
46.78 28.00 1957.05
47.55 28.10 1957.06
48.51 28.30 1957.07
45.84 28.30 1957.08
43.98 28.30 1957.09
41.24 28.30 1957.1
40.35 28.40 1957.11
40.33 28.40 1957.12
41.12 28.60 1958.01
41.26 28.60 1958.02
42.11 28.80 1958.03
42.34 28.90 1958.04
43.70 28.90 1958.05
44.75 28.90 1958.06
45.98 29.00 1958.07
47.70 28.90 1958.08
48.96 28.90 1958.09
50.95 28.90 1958.1
52.50 29.00 1958.11
53.49 28.90 1958.12
55.62 29.00 1959.01
54.77 28.90 1959.02
56.16 28.90 1959.03
57.10 29.00 1959.04
57.96 29.00 1959.05
57.46 29.10 1959.06
59.74 29.20 1959.07
59.40 29.20 1959.08
57.05 29.30 1959.09
57.00 29.40 1959.1
57.23 29.40 1959.11
59.06 29.40 1959.12
58.03 29.30 1960.01
55.78 29.40 1960.02
55.02 29.40 1960.03
55.73 29.50 1960.04
55.22 29.50 1960.05
57.26 29.60 1960.06
55.84 29.60 1960.07
56.51 29.60 1960.08
54.81 29.60 1960.09
53.73 29.80 1960.1
55.47 29.80 1960.11
56.80 29.80 1960.12
59.72 29.80 1961.01
62.17 29.80 1961.02
64.12 29.80 1961.03
65.83 29.80 1961.04
66.50 29.80 1961.05
65.62 29.80 1961.06
65.44 30.00 1961.07
67.79 29.90 1961.08
67.26 30.00 1961.09
68.00 30.00 1961.1
71.08 30.00 1961.11
71.74 30.00 1961.12
69.07 30.00 1962.01
70.22 30.10 1962.02
70.29 30.10 1962.03
68.05 30.20 1962.04
62.99 30.20 1962.05
55.63 30.20 1962.06
56.97 30.30 1962.07
58.52 30.30 1962.08
58.00 30.40 1962.09
56.17 30.40 1962.1
60.04 30.40 1962.11
62.64 30.40 1962.12
65.06 30.40 1963.01
65.92 30.40 1963.02
65.67 30.50 1963.03
68.76 30.50 1963.04
70.14 30.50 1963.05
70.11 30.60 1963.06
69.07 30.70 1963.07
70.98 30.70 1963.08
72.85 30.70 1963.09
73.03 30.80 1963.1
72.62 30.80 1963.11
74.17 30.90 1963.12
76.45 30.90 1964.01
77.39 30.90 1964.02
78.80 30.90 1964.03
79.94 30.90 1964.04
80.72 30.90 1964.05
80.24 31.00 1964.06
83.22 31.10 1964.07
82.00 31.00 1964.08
83.41 31.10 1964.09
84.85 31.10 1964.1
85.44 31.20 1964.11
83.96 31.20 1964.12
86.12 31.20 1965.01
86.75 31.20 1965.02
86.83 31.30 1965.03
87.97 31.40 1965.04
89.28 31.40 1965.05
85.04 31.60 1965.06
84.91 31.60 1965.07
86.49 31.60 1965.08
89.38 31.60 1965.09
91.39 31.70 1965.1
92.15 31.70 1965.11
91.73 31.80 1965.12
93.32 31.80 1966.01
92.69 32.00 1966.02
88.88 32.10 1966.03
91.60 32.30 1966.04
86.78 32.30 1966.05
86.06 32.40 1966.06
85.84 32.50 1966.07
80.65 32.70 1966.08
77.81 32.70 1966.09
77.13 32.90 1966.1
80.99 32.90 1966.11
81.33 32.90 1966.12
84.45 32.90 1967.01
87.36 32.90 1967.02
89.42 33.00 1967.03
90.96 33.10 1967.04
92.59 33.20 1967.05
91.43 33.30 1967.06
93.01 33.40 1967.07
94.49 33.50 1967.08
95.81 33.60 1967.09
95.66 33.70 1967.1
92.66 33.80 1967.11
95.30 33.90 1967.12
95.04 34.10 1968.01
90.75 34.20 1968.02
89.09 34.30 1968.03
95.67 34.40 1968.04
97.87 34.50 1968.05
100.50 34.70 1968.06
100.30 34.90 1968.07
98.11 35.00 1968.08
101.30 35.10 1968.09
103.80 35.30 1968.1
105.40 35.40 1968.11
106.50 35.50 1968.12
102.00 35.60 1969.01
101.50 35.80 1969.02
99.30 36.10 1969.03
101.30 36.30 1969.04
104.60 36.40 1969.05
99.14 36.60 1969.06
94.71 36.80 1969.07
94.18 37.00 1969.08
94.51 37.10 1969.09
95.52 37.30 1969.1
96.21 37.50 1969.11
91.11 37.70 1969.12
90.31 37.80 1970.01
87.16 38.00 1970.02
88.65 38.20 1970.03
85.95 38.50 1970.04
76.06 38.60 1970.05
75.59 38.80 1970.06
75.72 39.00 1970.07
77.92 39.00 1970.08
82.58 39.20 1970.09
84.37 39.40 1970.1
84.28 39.60 1970.11
90.05 39.80 1970.12
93.49 39.80 1971.01
97.11 39.90 1971.02
99.60 40.00 1971.03
103.00 40.10 1971.04
101.60 40.30 1971.05
99.72 40.60 1971.06
99.00 40.70 1971.07
97.24 40.80 1971.08
99.40 40.80 1971.09
97.29 40.90 1971.1
92.78 40.90 1971.11
99.17 41.10 1971.12
103.30 41.10 1972.01
105.20 41.30 1972.02
107.70 41.40 1972.03
108.80 41.50 1972.04
107.70 41.60 1972.05
108.00 41.70 1972.06
107.20 41.90 1972.07
111.00 42.00 1972.08
109.40 42.10 1972.09
109.60 42.30 1972.1
115.10 42.40 1972.11
117.50 42.50 1972.12
118.40 42.60 1973.01
114.20 42.90 1973.02
112.40 43.30 1973.03
110.30 43.60 1973.04
107.20 43.90 1973.05
104.80 44.20 1973.06
105.80 44.30 1973.07
103.80 45.10 1973.08
105.60 45.20 1973.09
109.80 45.60 1973.1
102.00 45.90 1973.11
94.78 46.20 1973.12
96.11 46.60 1974.01
93.45 47.20 1974.02
97.44 47.80 1974.03
92.46 48.00 1974.04
89.67 48.60 1974.05
89.79 49.00 1974.06
79.31 49.40 1974.07
76.03 50.00 1974.08
68.12 50.60 1974.09
69.44 51.10 1974.1
71.74 51.50 1974.11
67.07 51.90 1974.12
72.56 52.10 1975.01
80.10 52.50 1975.02
83.78 52.70 1975.03
84.72 52.90 1975.04
90.10 53.20 1975.05
92.40 53.60 1975.06
92.49 54.20 1975.07
85.71 54.30 1975.08
84.67 54.60 1975.09
88.57 54.90 1975.1
90.07 55.30 1975.11
88.70 55.50 1975.12
96.86 55.60 1976.01
100.60 55.80 1976.02
101.10 55.90 1976.03
101.90 56.10 1976.04
101.20 56.50 1976.05
101.80 56.80 1976.06
104.20 57.10 1976.07
103.30 57.40 1976.08
105.50 57.60 1976.09
101.90 57.90 1976.1
101.20 58.00 1976.11
104.70 58.20 1976.12
103.80 58.50 1977.01
101.00 59.10 1977.02
100.60 59.50 1977.03
99.05 60.00 1977.04
98.76 60.30 1977.05
99.29 60.70 1977.06
100.20 61.00 1977.07
97.75 61.20 1977.08
96.23 61.40 1977.09
93.74 61.60 1977.1
94.28 61.90 1977.11
93.82 62.10 1977.12
90.25 62.50 1978.01
88.98 62.90 1978.02
88.82 63.40 1978.03
92.71 63.90 1978.04
97.41 64.50 1978.05
97.66 65.20 1978.06
97.19 65.70 1978.07
103.90 66.00 1978.08
103.90 66.50 1978.09
100.60 67.10 1978.1
94.71 67.40 1978.11
96.11 67.70 1978.12
99.71 68.30 1979.01
98.23 69.10 1979.02
100.10 69.80 1979.03
102.10 70.60 1979.04
99.73 71.50 1979.05
101.70 72.30 1979.06
102.70 73.10 1979.07
107.40 73.80 1979.08
108.60 74.60 1979.09
104.50 75.20 1979.1
103.70 75.90 1979.11
107.80 76.70 1979.12
110.90 77.80 1980.01
115.30 78.90 1980.02
104.70 80.10 1980.03
103.00 81.00 1980.04
107.70 81.80 1980.05
114.60 82.70 1980.06
119.80 82.70 1980.07
123.50 83.30 1980.08
126.50 84.00 1980.09
130.20 84.80 1980.1
135.70 85.50 1980.11
133.50 86.30 1980.12
133.00 87.00 1981.01
128.40 87.90 1981.02
133.20 88.50 1981.03
134.40 89.10 1981.04
131.70 89.80 1981.05
132.30 90.60 1981.06
129.10 91.60 1981.07
129.60 92.30 1981.08
118.30 93.20 1981.09
119.80 93.40 1981.1
122.90 93.70 1981.11
123.80 94.00 1981.12
117.30 94.30 1982.01
114.50 94.60 1982.02
110.80 94.50 1982.03
116.30 94.90 1982.04
116.40 95.80 1982.05
109.70 97.00 1982.06
109.40 97.50 1982.07
109.70 97.70 1982.08
122.40 97.90 1982.09
132.70 98.20 1982.1
138.10 98.00 1982.11
139.40 97.60 1982.12
144.30 97.80 1983.01
146.80 97.90 1983.02
151.90 97.90 1983.03
157.70 98.60 1983.04
164.10 99.20 1983.05
166.40 99.50 1983.06
167.00 99.90 1983.07
162.40 100.20 1983.08
167.20 100.70 1983.09
167.70 101.00 1983.1
165.20 101.20 1983.11
164.40 101.30 1983.12
166.40 101.90 1984.01
157.30 102.40 1984.02
157.40 102.60 1984.03
157.60 103.10 1984.04
156.60 103.40 1984.05
153.10 103.70 1984.06
151.10 104.10 1984.07
164.40 104.50 1984.08
166.10 105.00 1984.09
164.80 105.30 1984.1
166.30 105.30 1984.11
164.50 105.30 1984.12
179.63 105.50 1985.01
181.18 106.00 1985.02
180.66 106.40 1985.03
179.83 106.90 1985.04
189.55 107.30 1985.05
191.85 107.60 1985.06
190.92 107.80 1985.07
188.63 108.00 1985.08
182.08 108.30 1985.09
189.82 108.70 1985.1
202.17 109.00 1985.11
211.28 109.30 1985.12
211.78 109.60 1986.01
226.92 109.30 1986.02
238.90 108.80 1986.03
235.52 108.60 1986.04
247.35 108.90 1986.05
250.84 109.50 1986.06
236.12 109.50 1986.07
252.93 109.70 1986.08
231.32 110.20 1986.09
243.98 110.30 1986.1
249.22 110.40 1986.11
242.17 110.50 1986.12
274.08 111.20 1987.01
284.20 111.60 1987.02
291.70 112.10 1987.03
288.36 112.70 1987.04
290.10 113.10 1987.05
304.00 113.50 1987.06
318.66 113.80 1987.07
329.80 114.40 1987.08
321.83 115.00 1987.09
251.79 115.30 1987.1
230.30 115.40 1987.11
247.08 115.40 1987.12
257.07 115.70 1988.01
267.82 116.00 1988.02
258.89 116.50 1988.03
261.33 117.10 1988.04
262.16 117.50 1988.05
273.50 118.00 1988.06
272.02 118.50 1988.07
261.52 119.00 1988.08
271.91 119.80 1988.09
278.97 120.20 1988.1
273.70 120.30 1988.11
277.72 120.50 1988.12
297.47 121.10 1989.01
288.86 121.60 1989.02
294.87 122.30 1989.03
309.64 123.10 1989.04
320.52 123.80 1989.05
317.98 124.10 1989.06
346.08 124.40 1989.07
351.45 124.60 1989.08
349.15 125.00 1989.09
340.36 125.60 1989.1
345.99 125.90 1989.11
353.40 126.10 1989.12
329.08 127.40 1990.01
331.89 128.00 1990.02
339.94 128.70 1990.03
330.80 128.90 1990.04
361.23 129.20 1990.05
358.02 129.90 1990.06
356.15 130.40 1990.07
322.56 131.60 1990.08
306.05 132.70 1990.09
304.00 133.50 1990.1
322.22 133.80 1990.11
330.22 133.80 1990.12
343.93 134.60 1991.01
367.07 134.80 1991.02
375.22 135.00 1991.03
375.34 135.20 1991.04
389.83 135.60 1991.05
371.16 136.00 1991.06
387.81 136.20 1991.07
395.43 136.60 1991.08
387.86 137.20 1991.09
392.45 137.40 1991.1
375.22 137.80 1991.11
417.09 137.90 1991.12
408.78 138.10 1992.01
412.70 138.60 1992.02
403.69 139.30 1992.03
414.95 139.50 1992.04
415.35 139.70 1992.05
408.14 140.20 1992.06
424.21 140.50 1992.07
414.03 140.90 1992.08
417.80 141.30 1992.09
418.68 141.80 1992.1
431.35 142.00 1992.11
435.71 141.90 1992.12
438.78 142.60 1993.01
443.38 143.10 1993.02
451.67 143.60 1993.03
440.19 144.00 1993.04
450.19 144.20 1993.05
450.53 144.40 1993.06
448.13 144.40 1993.07
463.56 144.80 1993.08
458.93 145.10 1993.09
467.83 145.70 1993.1
461.79 145.80 1993.11
466.45 145.80 1993.12
481.61 146.20 1994.01
467.14 146.70 1994.02
445.77 147.20 1994.03
450.91 147.40 1994.04
456.50 147.50 1994.05
444.27 148.00 1994.06
458.26 148.40 1994.07
475.49 149.00 1994.08
462.71 149.40 1994.09
472.35 149.50 1994.1
453.69 149.70 1994.11
459.27 149.70 1994.12
470.42 150.30 1995.01
487.39 150.90 1995.02
500.71 151.40 1995.03
514.71 151.90 1995.04
533.40 152.20 1995.05
544.75 152.50 1995.06
562.06 152.50 1995.07
561.88 152.90 1995.08
584.41 153.20 1995.09
581.50 153.70 1995.1
605.37 153.60 1995.11
615.93 153.50 1995.12
636.02 154.40 1996.01
640.43 154.90 1996.02
645.50 155.70 1996.03
654.17 156.30 1996.04
669.12 156.60 1996.05
670.63 156.70 1996.06
639.95 157.00 1996.07
651.99 157.30 1996.08
687.33 157.80 1996.09
705.27 158.30 1996.1
757.02 158.60 1996.11
740.74 158.60 1996.12
786.16 159.10 1997.01
790.82 159.60 1997.02
757.12 160.00 1997.03
801.34 160.20 1997.04
848.28 160.10 1997.05
885.14 160.30 1997.06
954.31 160.50 1997.07
899.47 160.80 1997.08
947.28 161.20 1997.09
914.62 161.60 1997.1
955.40 161.50 1997.11
970.43 161.30 1997.12
980.28 161.60 1998.01
1049.34 161.90 1998.02
1101.75 162.20 1998.03
1111.75 162.50 1998.04
1090.82 162.80 1998.05
1133.84 163.00 1998.06
1120.67 163.20 1998.07
957.28 163.40 1998.08
1017.01 163.60 1998.09
1098.67 164.00 1998.1
1163.63 164.00 1998.11
1229.23 163.90 1998.12
1279.64 164.30 1999.01
1238.33 164.50 1999.02
1286.37 165.00 1999.03
1335.18 166.20 1999.04
1301.84 166.20 1999.05
1372.71 166.20 1999.06
1328.72 166.70 1999.07
1320.41 167.10 1999.08
1282.71 167.90 1999.09
1362.93 168.20 1999.1
1388.91 168.30 1999.11
1469.25 168.30 1999.12
1394.46 168.80 2000.01
1366.42 169.80 2000.02
1498.58 171.20 2000.03
1452.43 171.30 2000.04
1420.60 171.50 2000.05
1454.60 172.40 2000.06
1430.83 172.80 2000.07
1517.68 172.80 2000.08
1436.51 173.70 2000.09
1429.40 174.00 2000.1
1314.95 174.10 2000.11
1320.28 174.00 2000.12
1366.01 175.10 2001.01
1239.94 175.80 2001.02
1160.33 176.20 2001.03
1249.46 176.90 2001.04
1255.82 177.70 2001.05
1224.38 178.00 2001.06
1211.23 177.50 2001.07
1133.58 177.50 2001.08
1040.94 178.30 2001.09
1059.78 177.70 2001.1
1139.45 177.40 2001.11
1148.08 176.70 2001.12
1130.20 177.10 2002.01
1106.73 177.80 2002.02
1147.39 178.80 2002.03
1076.92 179.80 2002.04
1067.14 179.80 2002.05
989.82 179.90 2002.06
911.62 180.10 2002.07
916.07 180.70 2002.08
815.28 181.00 2002.09
885.76 181.30 2002.1
936.31 181.30 2002.11
879.82 180.90 2002.12
855.70 181.70 2003.01
841.15 183.10 2003.02
848.18 184.20 2003.03
916.92 183.80 2003.04
963.59 183.50 2003.05
974.50 183.70 2003.06
990.31 183.90 2003.07
1008.01 184.60 2003.08
995.97 185.20 2003.09
1050.71 185.00 2003.1
1058.20 184.50 2003.11
1111.92 184.30 2003.12
1131.13 185.20 2004.01
1144.94 186.20 2004.02
1126.21 187.40 2004.03
1107.30 188.00 2004.04
1120.68 189.10 2004.05
1140.84 189.70 2004.06
1101.72 189.40 2004.07
1104.24 189.50 2004.08
1114.58 189.90 2004.09
1130.20 190.90 2004.1
1173.82 191.00 2004.11
1211.92 190.30 2004.12
1181.27 190.70 2005.01
1203.60 191.80 2005.02
1180.59 193.30 2005.03
1156.85 194.60 2005.04
1191.50 194.40 2005.05
1191.33 194.50 2005.06
1234.18 195.40 2005.07
1220.33 196.40 2005.08
1228.81 198.80 2005.09
1207.01 199.20 2005.1
1249.48 197.60 2005.11
1248.29 196.80 2005.12
1280.08 198.30 2006.01
1280.66 198.70 2006.02
1294.87 199.80 2006.03
1310.61 201.50 2006.04
1270.09 202.50 2006.05
1270.20 202.90 2006.06
1276.66 203.50 2006.07
1303.82 203.90 2006.08
1335.85 202.90 2006.09
1377.94 201.80 2006.1
1400.63 201.50 2006.11
1418.30 201.80 2006.12
1438.24 202.42 2007.01
1406.82 203.50 2007.02
1420.86 205.35 2007.03
1482.37 206.69 2007.04
1530.62 207.95 2007.05
1503.35 208.35 2007.06
1455.27 208.30 2007.07
1473.99 207.92 2007.08
1526.75 208.49 2007.09
1549.38 208.94 2007.1
1481.14 210.18 2007.11
1468.36 210.04 2007.12
1378.55 211.08 2008.01
1330.63 211.69 2008.02
1322.70 213.53 2008.03
1385.59 214.82 2008.04
1400.38 216.63 2008.05
1280.00 218.82 2008.06
1267.38 219.96 2008.07
1282.83 219.09 2008.08
1166.36 218.78 2008.09
968.75 216.57 2008.1
896.24 212.43 2008.11
903.25 210.23 2008.12
825.88 211.14 2009.01
735.09 212.19 2009.02
797.87 212.71 2009.03
872.81 213.24 2009.04
919.14 213.86 2009.05
919.32 215.69 2009.06
987.48 215.35 2009.07
1020.62 215.83 2009.08
1057.08 215.97 2009.09
1036.19 216.18 2009.1
1095.63 216.33 2009.11
1115.10 215.95 2009.12
1073.87 216.69 2010.01
1104.49 216.74 2010.02
1169.43 217.63 2010.03
1186.69 218.01 2010.04
1089.41 218.18 2010.05
1030.71 217.97 2010.06
1101.60 218.01 2010.07
1049.33 218.31 2010.08
1141.20 218.44 2010.09
1183.26 218.71 2010.1
1180.55 218.80 2010.11
1257.64 219.18 2010.12
1286.12 220.22 2011.01
1327.22 221.31 2011.02
1325.83 223.47 2011.03
1363.61 224.91 2011.04
1345.20 225.96 2011.05
1320.64 225.72 2011.06
1292.28 225.92 2011.07
1218.89 226.55 2011.08
1131.42 226.89 2011.09
1253.30 226.42 2011.1
1246.96 226.23 2011.11
1257.60 225.67 2011.12
1312.41 226.67 2012.01
1365.68 227.66 2012.02
1408.47 229.39 2012.03
1397.91 230.09 2012.04
1310.33 229.82 2012.05
1362.16 229.48 2012.06
1379.32 229.10 2012.07
1406.58 230.38 2012.08
1440.67 231.41 2012.09
1412.16 231.32 2012.1
1416.18 230.22 2012.11
1426.19 229.60 2012.12
1498.11 230.28 2013.01
1514.68 232.17 2013.02
1569.19 232.77 2013.03
1597.57 232.53 2013.04
1630.74 232.95 2013.05
1606.28 233.50 2013.06
1685.73 233.60 2013.07
1632.97 233.88 2013.08
1681.55 234.15 2013.09
1756.54 233.55 2013.1
1805.81 233.07 2013.11
1848.36 233.05 2013.12
1782.59 233.92 2014.01
1859.45 234.78 2014.02
1872.34 236.29 2014.03
1883.95 237.07 2014.04
1923.57 237.90 2014.05
1960.23 238.34 2014.06
1930.67 238.25 2014.07
2003.37 237.85 2014.08
1972.29 238.03 2014.09
2018.05 237.43 2014.1
2067.56 236.15 2014.11
2058.90 234.81 2014.12
1994.99 233.71 2015.01
2104.50 234.72 2015.02
2067.89 236.12 2015.03
2085.51 236.60 2015.04
2107.39 237.81 2015.05
2063.11 238.64 2015.06
2103.84 238.65 2015.07
1972.18 238.32 2015.08
1920.03 237.95 2015.09
2079.36 237.84 2015.1
2080.41 237.34 2015.11
2043.94 236.53 2015.12
1940.24 236.92 2016.01
1932.23 237.11 2016.02
2059.74 238.13 2016.03
2065.30 239.26 2016.04
2096.95 240.23 2016.05
2098.86 241.02 2016.06
2173.60 240.63 2016.07
2170.95 240.85 2016.08
2168.27 241.43 2016.09
2126.15 241.73 2016.1
2198.81 241.35 2016.11
2238.83 241.43 2016.12
2278.87 242.84 2017.01
2363.64 243.60 2017.02
2362.72 243.80 2017.03
2384.20 244.52 2017.04
2411.80 244.73 2017.05
2423.41 244.96 2017.06
2470.30 244.79 2017.07
2471.65 245.52 2017.08
2519.36 246.82 2017.09
2575.26 246.66 2017.1
2647.58 246.67 2017.11
2673.61 246.52 2017.12
2823.81 247.87 2018.01
2713.83 248.99 2018.02
2640.87 249.55 2018.03
2648.05 250.55 2018.04
2705.27 251.59 2018.05
2718.37 251.99 2018.06
2816.29 252.01 2018.07
2901.52 252.15 2018.08
2913.98 252.44 2018.09
2711.74 252.89 2018.1
2760.17 252.04 2018.11
2506.85 251.23 2018.12
2704.10 251.71 2019.01
2784.49 252.78 2019.02
2834.40 254.20 2019.03
2945.83 255.55 2019.04
2752.06 256.09 2019.05
2941.76 256.14 2019.06
2980.38 256.57 2019.07
2926.46 256.56 2019.08
2976.74 256.76 2019.09
3037.56 257.35 2019.1
3140.98 257.21 2019.11
3230.78 256.97 2019.12
3225.52 257.97 2020.01
2954.22 258.68 2020.02
2584.59 258.12 2020.03
2912.43 256.39 2020.04
3044.31 256.39 2020.05
3100.29 257.80 2020.06
3271.12 259.10 2020.07
3500.31 259.92 2020.08
3363.00 260.28 2020.09
3269.96 260.39 2020.1
3621.63 260.23 2020.11
3756.07 260.47 2020.12
3714.24 261.58 2021.01
3811.15 263.01 2021.02
3972.89 264.88 2021.03
4181.17 267.05 2021.04
4204.11 269.20 2021.05
4297.50 271.70 2021.06
4395.26 273.00 2021.07
4522.68 273.57 2021.08
4307.54 274.31 2021.09
4605.38 276.59 2021.1
4567.00 277.95 2021.11
4766.18 278.80 2021.12
4515.55 281.15 2022.01
4373.94 283.72 2022.02
4530.41 287.50 2022.03
4131.93 289.11 2022.04
4132.15 292.30 2022.05
3785.38 296.31 2022.06
4130.29 296.28 2022.07
3955.00 296.17 2022.08
3585.62 296.81 2022.09
3871.98 298.01 2022.1
4080.11 297.71 2022.11
3839.50 296.80 2022.12
4076.60 299.17 2023.01
3970.15 300.84 2023.02
4109.31 301.84 2023.03
4169.48 303.36 2023.04
4179.83 304.13 2023.05
4450.38 305.11 2023.06
4588.96 305.69 2023.07
4507.66 307.03 2023.08
4288.05 307.79 2023.09
4193.80 307.67 2023.1
4567.80 307.05 2023.11
4769.83 306.75 2023.12
4845.65 308.42 2024.01
5096.27 310.33 2024.02
5254.35 312.33 2024.03
5035.69 313.55 2024.04
5277.51 314.07 2024.05
5460.48 314.18 2024.06
5522.30 314.23 2024.07
Generally 30 year outcomes were within common average +/- 2 standard deviations, where AIM had a similar average outcome but achieved that with lower variance (standard deviation). So broadly around 8% averages for both stock and AIM, with stock 2% standard deviation compared to AIM's 1.5%, so lower (min) values of 8% - ( 2 x 2% ) = 4% SWR for stocks, 8% - ( 2 x 1.5% ) = 5% SWR for AIM
... as a guideline
Hi Tom.
If Portfolio Control was accelerated at a 1%/year monthly pro-rata rate from 1985 [prior PC x ( 1.01^(1/12)) each month], when dividends started to be taxed more, more of earnings tending to be retained, then the 2009 period AIM %CASH did dip to zero cash briefly. With that setting and changing minimum trade size from 5% to 10% you get back to a similar looking chart again. The larger minimum trade size slows the number of trades and helped to preserve cash more during deep dive events
Using Precious metals for 'cash' was better than using T-Bills (silver from 1933 to 1975, gold from 1976, as gold was prohibited to be traded in those earlier years).
A key factor is how AIM by building up cash reserves during Bull runs, helped attenuate the declines, portfolio drawdows were less deep, and in so doing increased SWR. With AIM using real (inflation adjusted) stock price as its input, 10% SAFE and Minimum Trade Size, monthly reviewed, traded on paper, and then at each year end using the year end AIM %CASH as the amount to load into precious metal at the start of the new year, the rest in stocks, leaving that as-is for the year (assuming dividends automatically reinvested to buy more stock shares) and the historic SWR oucome ...
Commonly stocks are assumed to have supported a 4% SWR, as the Total Stock Market (all stock) red dots indicate in the above chart. With AIM the SWR was increased to more than 5% (lowest of the black dots).
Overall rewards for AIM compared to TSM were similar, but achieved with less volatility, and averaged getting on for 50% 'CASH' (precious metals)
AIM'ing the real (after CPI adjustment) share price instead of the nominal share price helps direct AIM away from otherwise tending to build up too much cash reserves.
Best wishes
Clive
PS
A SWR of 5% means that you draw 5% of the start date portfolio value as your spending amount for that year, then each year thereafter you increase that $$$ amount by inflation as the amount drawn for spending in subsequent years. So its a regular inflation adjusted income year after year. Typically SWR periods are measured across a assumed 30 year period (see a 65 year old through to age 95).
Hi Tom
Hi Tom
Not a recommendation, just a observation, free download https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/download/file.php?id=3343 of Seth Klarman's Margin of Safety book that literally sells for thousands of dollars online due to being quite rare (as only a few hundred copies were ever printed). Book pages 217 onward align well with AIM, average-in rather than lump-in, selling is normally hard to do - unless you have AIM nudging you :)
Clive