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This is my blog. I am long here for a ton of shares.. fellow longs. get active promoting this company if you truly believe in the company fundamentals.. get working.. no need to pump bs, fundamentals are strong here moving forward.. to read my blog, do to http://scottmatusow.com/blog/2011/10/18/more-info-on-antares-pharma-ais/
Yes. its being attacked by a group of shorters.. common for stocks of this pps..
I think any secondary offering (dilution) really would not be needed now.. one, drugs are not even approved yet, but for nda ridia in the eu, ARIAD receives more milestone payments which is turn goes back into the company to hire marketing people, This guy Duvall, etc.. one can see ARIAD losing more money per share last earnings because of these things.. a secondary offering is only done when the company has cash burned, to raise liquidity.. I see HB getting the co in line to market things on their own.. they made the deal with Merck on the least promising drug in their pipeline.. this allows them all of the above to get Pron, and 113 to market.. this is why they are not looking to split profits per say on Ridia with Merck, but rather again, to get that cash flow from royality and milestones... That is what my DD has concluded on this, and why I have a massive position here.... do you concurr?
and how do you see dilution here as being a good thing for us going forward?
100 percent correct observation... the core issue is they need to devalue the euro.. of not, then they need to downsize the union, cut off greece and let them default, and evaluate from there.. their biggest concern should be capital liquidity. not a perceived value.. in part, this is what caused our housing issue here.. banks looking at a house at a perceived value, deciding it is best to simply repo the assset, believing it had a high value easy turn over rate.. but they got left holding a bag, an assest losing without a capital flow to it... the eu has a choice..if they wish to stay together, they will either devalue now and re-capitalize, or wait until later, when by that time their eu will devalue on its own, and cause a global financial REAL issue.. we need to reinstate Smoot Hawley right the F now! these boozos dont get as well,, that a devaluation will spike our dollar back into the 85+ range, allowing for another full QE, which can help THEM.. no wonder why the metals are flying!!
correction = BECAUSE I AM NOT HAPPY WITH SOME RETURN. I set a target based on my DD.. and figure a time frame:)
How much you want to bet on that? it will see more, but in 5 years time over 100 dollars.. u name the odds, give me good odds, ill wager on it.. but i guess that is what i can afford to buy thousands upon thousands of shares here and others. because im happy with some returns.. sell when u have to. if things dont look right.. things go right, hold it, shave some shares off, etc.. for instance, i will keep a base amount of shares here.. if i see the wrong movement, something technical shows up, ill shave some off. normally for small profit.. ill wait to add those shares back for an average down, again, adding small amounts to my cash reserve while cutting 10 to 20 cents off the average price.. i can afford to do this, while others cant... but whatever works best for everyone out there,, all good!!
and not one of the replies from a single trader from that article is correct, nor is the writer either.. why? I have been trading the markets for years.. this is super common for this time of year to see correlations like this.. meanwhile.. are they really that correlated? go look at aria pricing the last 2 months at this level of where the dow and s and p is.. the article is written from the point of a view of a pure trader, the replies are the same.. first off, per adjusted liquidity, the over all markets are undervalued.. eu issues are priced in already as far as real human investors go.. the machines can only do so much. if one notes the general market volume when the markets tanked from july highs to the sell off, one can see massive volume.. that was more than machines.. now the tight trading range, are mainly machines... per the adjusted lower volume, there are not real sellers of long holds.. there are buyers however coming in during this time, like we always do.. why is it i make a ton for years in the markets, why these other traders waste time with these articles that us long time investor/traders know about? u like something like ARIA, u buy and hold it at this time of the year.. on a side note, if regulators wanted a really stable market that is insulated from the eu.. bring back smoot hawley.
charts and share block moves indicate we are getting close to a breakout here,, we arent there yet. have to watch the late day volume. where it breaks too. so far, it is heavily weighted to the high side... much bigger bids and much large share blocks moving thru, which indicates buying beyond that of computer trades.
Priced in already, that is what i "think" i really do not care what the short term fears are.. i have not made a ton of money in the markets from being fearful. rather, made my money from other's fears... i can withstand large on paper losses. always have. always won. if u think the markets will break down under their recent lows. then sell off all your shares.. ill take em at a deep discount though :)
I agree, based on the short covering today and smart money buying. and hurricane fear. i was wrong, it would be up 400.
the macro enviorment is a consideration for investors/traders holding on margin. I never do that, or ill say, RARELY, i dont fret the emotions of the street day to day.. i look ahead like you, 6 months.. the markets dont trade day to day 6 months in advance. investors make decisions 6 months in advance! people are over concerned with short term gratification.. real wealth is created by being able to stomach paper losses and having strong hands when it is calculated for the long term gain... stocks still beat the krap out of gold longterm... Gold will settle back to around 1600 before moving up over 2500 next year. if no hurrican out there. the dow would be 200+ up today and yesterday... computer high frequency trading causes what appears to be a dramatic macro enviorment.
haha, the street just got killed!! yesterday, some big bids during the sell off. I have 25 level 2 positions in front of me, and saw that... now here come the street back to buy the gap they sold, lol!! HOLD!!
Hurricane coming, big one, Markets are stable.. EU worries (which are overblown) Markets are stable.. BOC is the most undervalued stock ever ( i bought 20k of shares near 6 dollar low, sold it at 8.40) BOC should be 15.. have small position there now. some words of comfort to you all.. if u are in the red here, the only thing that will keep you there is a terrorist attack or some real severe natural disaster in the USA.. massive short covering just happened market wide.. the smart money knows when to cover.. yesterday was panick selling... the street rarely makes money in the market.. they are indicative of America today, which is people want INSTANT gratification. the smart trader/investor sees this and waits, holds, scalps trades against and with fear and greed.. u can choose to believe me, or think im full of krap.. this is not a pump attempt.. I called the market crash in 2008, and saved many people a ton of money who know me.. I am calling for a much higher market to close this year going into 2013.
This market is prob the most undervalued market I have ever seen since 6500 in 2008. I can go on and on as to why.. I think longterm.. anyone want to bet me s&p by the end of year will be near 1400? ok, ill elaborate a little bit... in 2008, liquidity was the huge issue.. Oil, Gold, and silver sold off.. oil at 42, silver down to 12, gold under 800.. value of dollar much higher.. now gold 1700+ silver over 40.. oil hanging around 85 to 90.. dollar devalued... 6500 x 2 per adjusted inflation and deflation of dollar = 12000 dow.. now add more liquid, in fact record bank liquidity.. down should be 14000... now, growth is there, but it is slow. Bernake did the right thing today as I expected he would.. the fed if it needs to, will act.. it doesnt.. they did their job, to provide liquidity. further QE at this time will only serve to cause a potentional stagflation enviorment. all in all, hold ARIA.. ANYONE want to bet this pps is over 15 dollars by year end. possibly even 20?
well into 6 figures :)
No, stocks are so undervalued right now, i would say anything taken as a negative is already priced in. I expect him to reiterate that the fed will do a type of QE if conditions warrant, pretty much what he said last year. to me, this is the most undervalued over sold market I have ever seen, which this time of year, is typical, think long term bud...
I fully expect a market buy run 30 minutes or less before the closing bell, bringing the indices into the green.. just a classic market shakeout going on right now.
The Gold run up was entirely about liquidity fears, not a weaker dollar.. gold was bought with cash low, sold high in order to amass more liquidity.. that fear is gone now.. if u adjust the sp and dow, it is way undervalued per the value of the dollar and economic data. therefore based on this, i call for the s&p over 1400 by the year's end.. please note, whether u believe me or not, i called for the market crash in 2008 because of liquidity issues. everyone said i was nuts. now im calling for a bull market run up closing out 2011, barring some unseen event, like a terrorist attack-natural disaster of epic proportion.
Classic last shakeout of stocks. metals selling off because money is about to pour into a very over sold stock market. the due was the FDIC report, which showed massive bank liquidity. nothing like 2008.. U see computer manipulation today to attempt to shake out the weaker hands.. the volume does not support a move of 45 cents down here. Therefore, based on my years of experience in this, i would say a massive market move up is about to take place.
im holding a bag here for now. I can afford to add way more shares. but i wont at these prices.. if it makes anyone feel better. I have never in my years lost on one of these bets, well once, i bought into a scam.. do u think ARIA is a scam company? ive held 100k bags before.. i waited it out, and got returns far passing what the "safe money" can get... but im cash inventory.. if u are dumb enough to buy a stock like this on margin, well, heh.. sorry, but margin and dtbp is only for high freguency trading
7 dollars a share here only happens if markets continue to tank, and no blockbuster news from ARIAD.. one website issued a short sell alert and put a 4.49 buy to cover price.. it really means nothing though, because that website went by a head and shoulder chart pattern, which does not mean a drop that low in price per say, not in an over all uptrend channel. Remember, high speculation stocks get hit harder in a market that is trending down. If you like this company, hold your shares and look for longterm results.
2 reasons stock going down. 1. computer traded markets trending markets lower so greedy big bankers/INT'S can win their July contract cheap puts of general market indices, mainly S AND P at or below 1150.. Late morning/afternoon Ariad will go up. 2. Institutional buying; computer trading systems are fed info when int's want to buy a position and with a lack of a strong bid, will take the price to a point where a large INT wants to get shares.. Oppenheimer bought 850,000 shares late today.. did you notice the late volume and sudden price downwards, then right back up? that was Oppenheimer buying the shares for "Their price".
I am cash in here in this position, and plan to hold this at least until it reaches the 20 dollar mark. This is about scaring out and margining out the common street investor, who sadly uses margin to over leverage and hold too many shares leveraged. In turn, big money INT cash buyers grab it from the "weak hands"
This time of year is historically the time the markets sell off.. every year, "they" create some sort of over blown negative news, fear, etc... this time, they want you guys to think this current sell off will be like 2008. I have news for you guys.. just prior to 2008, the sec removed the "uptick rule" which allowed computer trading to take the market wherever they wanted. Big money cash buyers can weather the downswings in markets they actually cause, because they are not margined in. However, they miscalculated in 2008 and allowed the market to go too low, drying up banking liquidity(instead of creating more liquidity using YOUR MONEY),Mainly, the central banking system's computer trading system.
Hence, they created new computer algorythms that effectively now take markets back up. This is why in 2008, you did not see the huge point "rallies"(buy to covers, int buying) you see now after huge "sell offs" (short selling, stealing your margined money)
Before, they did not have that "safeguard" built into the computer trader system....
You can believe me or not, but I know exactly how these systems work, because, let's just say, " a little birdy told me" and leave it at that.