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If (R)esistance is a problem…
Just GAP over it! Full tilt UP back to challenge ATH within 10 -12 Trade days , and then SPY will need a new diaper and clean sheets, cause it’s gonna get FUUUGLY within about 6 weeks , probably more like before end of August.
Feels like any spark and Buying pressure could become a MOASS raging conflagration; daily & 4 hour chart have already reset to OS. SP500 has also had some historical Levels of OS in June - July on daily and weekly timeframe, with monthly even getting to places not seen since ‘08 , on a few metrics, you got to ask yourself, is the macro picture really that bad for SP500? Really ? When everyone is calling for end of world, I think that’s the time to be brave, trust the techs, and look for a rebalance.
This was probably it for down. Could see some intraday piercing of this weeks lows next week, but all indicators show “ Bottom”; in fact, we may of seen the low today for at least the next few months. Not big on fundamentals , but ask yourself this: in recent times, has the Fed ever stared a market correction in the eye and not blinked?
Yes, bottomed, or bottoming. Could likely see more volatility this week, especially with CPI coming. But, if you look closer at the chart I posted, you can see that whenever weekly period has touched the tech lows pointed out, it has “ always , always …” ( Maverick of Wall Street meme) gone back to the upper Bollinger Band, over time ( several weeks to months ). I’m not saying it’s not possible we go below 400 first , but I think the probabilities ( based on historical points noted) show a strong move up eminent. Also, with the “Fed day “ up 3% Wednesday and Fail, any new moves up by SPY will cause many to sell at first chance , and then many to go short way too soon and could feel a summers worth of grinding pain; SPY takes no prisoners.
It’s a bit perverse at some level. $5T could of paid everyone’s mortgage off, helped SS and Medicare solvency, with enough to help truly small business ( the small fries really impacted ), but ... the beast comes first, always!
I’m still gone til 252, DOW DEVA, much props on the 300 call, close enough, but damn ! This is freaking insanity. I don’t even have words to describe how Fd up this is, given GDP # and UE numbers, fng crazy!
This will not end well, and that’s my trade, long dates, ignore until the drop is well in force.
See y’all at SPY 252, til then...
“ sooner r later, you’ll hit the deck - hit the ground...”
1’ looking like “ musical chairs” with collapsible chairs. This is the proverbial “ walking on air “ before the drop. Still rather amazing that SPY has pulled this move off, even though the end result will be down.
Same Here! I was running around a nude beach in Ocho Rios a few years ago , wondering ; “ what’s gonna happen next ?! “
I think the “ pivot “ thing seems about right, obviously I think that. How it manifests is about as predictable as what you can hear at a WH CV briefing.
Thanks, back at you. I see no preponderance of tech reasons that say “down” vs “ up “ now , in fact, if anything , I see the reverse. But, SPY has violated multiple tech strictures - norms lately, and it’s counterpart, VXX, has maintained a key S line on the weekly. I don’t put much stock ( as it were) into VXX as a predictor of SPY moves anymore, but this one seems rather clear, at least in past instances of drops. Also, as much as I want to ( should ) ignore fundamentals, as they can be very subjective too, it’s really difficult to look past SPY being only 12% down with 27mm UE in 5 weeks time, really difficult to square those two things. I know Spy can do anything it wants, and can out-run the truth of things more often than not, but there is a sea of bad news to Counter the ocean of Fed liquidity, at the moment.
60’ BBs coming together , quickly , portending a big move. As late in the day - week as it is, will probably lead to a Gap Monday, just like every other day of late. But, my map is your map; the sketch is hanging on my computer monitor, my 7/17 , 195p are sitting tight, and I’m not deviating until I see the move I expect.
Dude, you are like the wavy-arm inflatable guy, the way you describe the deals and bargains on contracts you pick up !! Lolololol
I love it !
Think this is that squeeze you were talking about , or part of it. Start of it, all there is to it , who the F knows ?!
4 Hr chart just judo flipped, closing above the S / R line which it closed below with yesterday’s last 4 Hr candle. Still extremely tight BBs ( relatively speaking ) , currently tightest BBs have been since before the drop started, as well all the lines of note I use are becoming more proximate / intertwined. This pattern usually portends a large type move, well, at least “ large “ as compared to recent history, and it’s been really tighter range of late.
15’ cleared the R line, and should allow for a move , of some type, very tepid all the way round right now. Ostensibly skittish behavior right now, but one side is gonna get rammed “up their asskie “ before day is done, I think; who will it be ??
Lol, leading ... sheep to the slaughter Just kidding, but it can be a “ leading indicator “ , as , I’ve certainly “ heard” that a lot lately. However, if we “ followed “ the market into mid February , even when Carona was known to be here in US, the we followed it off the cliffs edge. Markets are irrational, which is why bears can be slaughtered even when logically they may be right in their position, and why markets can sell off for no apparent reason.
The market is a wild, crazy beast, that we try to discern moves of, by guessing at which way the links of its chain move before it strikes.
I think if markets want to go up, then they go up, vice - verse, and I don’t think it has a lot to do with current, or FUTURE economic conditions.
“ forward looking “ is a convenient phrase analysts use when they can’t really explain why markets are behaving a certain way at the moment, as if they ever could explain it to a certainty anyway.
Just a wild beast, SPY is
Ah, well, I sure hope he’s right. He may be, because sometimes it’s a state of mind, “consumer confidence “ .
Sometimes consumer sentiment and perceptions is a powerful force.
Economic vs. Market ? I’ve heard that phrase “ V recovery “ used quite a bit lately, but people use it referring to different things, the shape of the markets recovery , or the shape of the economy’s recovery(?). Unless a person hears the context, preface of the term’s use, it can be hard to distinguish what sense the speaker is using the phrase in; equites marketS or economy writ large, because there is an obvious difference.
So, was Cook speaking about the market or the economy ? Either way, I’ll listen to him, for sure,
Robert Reich , yes ? I heard that clever statistical judo jab, and he is correct. In general , not just Covid times, urban areas do tend to fund , via taxes, more rural areas , via federal grants - subsidies to states. Not as binary as what I just stated, but none the less, generally true.
4 hr also saying large type MOVE coming , really tight; tightest BBs and range seen since before the initial drop
5 ‘ saying big move coming quick, everything really tightening
Omg dude, who needs sports?! Freaking hilarious !! I love that WH CV update, it’s a comedy show - blood sport, all in one.
“ so, I wonder if we can inject disinfectant and sunlight into the body to kill it?! Pp
WOW! Just WOW! Lolololololol
Spy closed above daily S, and could easily jump over the 50 ( R ) and GO on a bear hunt. Wouldn’t surprise me, but I do think any squeeze will be short lived, and that chart you posted yesterday, the one I independently Envisioned and sketched, virtually the exact same pattern, which I keep here on my desk as a reminder, is the real play book for longer term, and that longer term start, is very very near imo.
Could see 260’s by early next week, and I don’t feel like “ jimmy da Greek “ calling for it either; seems really possible, as impossible as it may sound to some.
Techs on Daily, say to clear on out of any long positions. The ostensible main (S ) on daily held, but with a reversal candle , and a fail of the 50 , again, add in another 4 hr close just below its S to end the day...
Could be an interesting next couple days, and that’s all I have to say about that.
Non sense, that 15’ , 5’ fail came out of nowhere, about 30 minutes ago, it looked like calls were the right call at the time you posted that about an hour ago. * 30 min and 60 min still have not failed S *, so you may still be good (?) .
You said you were still majority mind set, PUTS, and that chart you posted again yesterday, is THE GUIDE IMO. So much so, that I actually hand drew a sketch last week, that almost replicates the shape of your chart to the tee.
Stiff upper lip; you are the best trader here, shake it off soldier
Well, burn this mfkr down then !
The same BS drug hype that caused this latest move up. Anytime spy starts to show a natural - organic reaction to anything negative, it is quickly quelled and price supported. I’m not a fng conspiracy whacko, but if I was...
“Couple months” thing makes sense, with perhaps some frills n spills thrown in to convince people 1) end of world is coming, and sell the masses soon to be worthless X puts, then...convince people 2) the second coming of Christ on a unicorn is coming, and sell them soon to be worthless X calls, then 3) the true direction comes, without pause.
I too did well from January ( a bit early) , but saw the monthly candle, then also went calls (a few , 3 , days too early) on bottom, and of course sold to early on the monster move up, but still, no complaints.
Seems like February was just yesterday , and like ‘ tears for fears ‘ says: “...funny how, time fliiiieeeeessss”
Hey hey! What’s up man ?! Doin OK, ¿ y tu ?
Looking for a reality check here, could see some more temporary bear pain, but I think the ultimate direction seems to be the worst kept secret in the world right now. But, spy has a history of breaking it off in bears, so let’s see.
Directly buy equites, and that’s not hyperbolic, especially if / when SP posts new low
DOW chart you just posted, worth a look - see for all , if for nothing else , the rat graphic
The points are rather interesting, seems natural, eh ?
Based on earnings growth ( negative ) , demand implosion ( perhaps permanent damage to) , with the risk potential of defaults ( certainty ) , SPY should be < 200, but I’ll settle for 250 from here.
They will need to squeeze hard, because even the weakest of bears probably knows what a charade this move could be.
It’s soooo far gone at this point. It’s beyond drooling - straight jacket - loose on the grounds Crazy. I’ve seen Spy do some shameless chit, but this is a whole different universe. There will, of course, be a violent rebalancing to the reality of things.
Know that those aren’t even the true numbers ; many self employed have yet to be counted , even though they have officially applied, because their claims are “ denied “ until the states can figure out their respective UE systems to accommodate those applicants.
But, take the total of the numbers for tomorrow and the last three weeks, then...
Put those numbers on a side by side w SPY price, and ask yourself , “ what’s wrong with this picture ?”
Then think about all the consumer and retail defaults, of all types , that are coming, as stated by Jamie Dimon and others who know their stuff.
Koo-Koo crazy
I’m not gonna discount your predict, especially of late ( en fuego) , but SPY missed key S on the 4 ‘ , (caused by that lil 5’ drop at end), and a seeming reversal on daily candle shape; we may see a gap down, or bigger move down at least, starting tomorrow ( hopeful ).