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Divisional Picks:
MIN/U
BAL/O
KC/O
GB/U
BUF/U, NE/O, NO/O, PHI/U
Rams to win Washington to lose
GB to win, SF to lose
Minnesota to win, Arizona to lose
Denver to win, Cleveland to lose
New Orleans to win, Buffalo to lose
SPY Charts:
I think you were spot on with your statement the other day for today's action......
"Could be a quick IFB to sell more puts and shake some calls loose. Maybe a quick burst of fear Monday? Then a quick turn and burn ?"
Also as I said, it was a premium killer on both ends from last weeks holds.
However, I have SPY closing above 50ma for past three days tho since it's "triangle break retest" ?
See below
<edit> I believe your referring to the non dividend or unadjusted _SPY chart, so my bad in which case you would be correct.
SPY Candlestick Chart:
SPY Daily Close Line Chart:
Hmmmm, hopefully in my case.....
As even tho I'm "hedged" I am bias long with various call options.
Hedged a bit with a 261/276 strangle on SPY and OTM TWTR puts as that c hart has been screaming correction and I've made a few bucks but it keeps bouncing back a bit and hovering, TWTR that is and have been playing puts since the 6/15 "shooting star like" candle print.
Anyway, back to dabbling a bit but seem to do better with options on individual stocks vs SPY, mostly using SPY as a hedge currently.
I'm with you on that 278 number as that's the top of ascending triangle pattern and channel from what is see chart wise, and I haven't seen SPY oscillators have an extended stay in OS for a very, very long time.
Could be right on "burst of fear" and "turn and burn" oscillators would still keep rising out of os, but will kill premiums which make s more sense in this game
Not much on this end, I guess same ole. Just stoppin by, throwing some crayons and coloring books around.
Ugly looking close today not very supportive of a continued bounce out of OS.
Perhaps Friday jitters ?
Market getting herky jerky.
Although technically I see us on an upswing near term, I'm thinking this "stretched out cycle" takes a fall some time around Sep/Oct which seem to be historically the months when big corrections or drops occur
Ha, but I've told myself that story before yet it does seem that some catalysts for a larger correction are now building and looming.
Good to see you around tho,
Cheers!
SPY - Closing Basis triangle version of $SPX ???
Still seems break and then retest of symmetrical triangle is still valid for now while coming out of OS in Williams and Full Stochastic oscillators.
However, not very confirming candle and price pattern at today's current print (candle stick version not shown)
In agreement on your overall sentiment/assessment. BTW, long time no speak. Hope you an Imi and all are well over here.
I think we got another btfd op with sliding down past then regaining the 50ma. Oscillators in oversold which do not stay there very long historically.
Purely technical, the below chart of $SPX with notes is my current point of view. Several patterns are visible between large symmetrical triangle, an ascending triangle, and overall channel.
Regaining 33ma would benefit bullish outlook with a close above 2742.
Good wishes and trading.....
Looks like well over 3,0000 days isn't that uncommon according to that chart, especially the longer the bull runs
(side note) I have 235.31 as 4/21 high print beofre the 4/24 major gap up and "mystery fill". Not sure if that's meaningful or not but I suppose technically that old gap still never filled unless 235.43 low may be close enough.
I have pretty heavy upside recovery/bounce volume tho past two days
Could be indefinitely lol. Seems to me market still only game in town for yield.
Interest rates still low and what...... two minor hikes on horizon for this year ???
Been sayin it forever, there needs to be a catalyst for a major market correction. I do think it would be healthy to have a correction/pullback.
In the spirit of "cycles" it could use a "cleansing" I just think there's different instruments these days pushing us higher and keeping us elevated.
"so the 7 years could stretch out longer (e.g. 9 years) before next correction"
Perhaps longer ?
I agree tho, QE and ZIRP I believe changed the game or "cycle"
Well Over a year ago the LT Monthly chart on $SPX failed to enter the anticipated correction of 7 year cycle many of us were looking at or at least I was looking at.
Some of us termed it the ultimate "F-U" in the charts and TA.
I've been mostly bullish since then, but your statement had to be considered in the analysis.
yes on that one, even 103 straddle at around 8.35 or so yesterday woulda been nicely profitable.
they beat pretty significantly I think, in past I feel like its had a tendency to fade after the open but maybe nit the case this time.
OT: "imi" prolly already know this but........
keep eyes on PCLN and NVDA tomorrow post ER
PCLN may get a huge bounce at some point if it opens as initial reaction tonight
watch for the possible db
YELP another one
cheers,
<edit> NVDA from what I remember might be a fade, I used to straddle it and recall having to time the peak of direction to lock a gain before reversing or pulling back and both sides started to go negative on the play. That ones tricky fwiw
Good eyes earlier, took a bit to develop but did bounce.
Like you said, better options out there, TSLA pretty tight spreads and liquid options plus one helluva bounce from initial drop.
All the usuals with nice post ER bounces
No entry on TSLA, hesitated and watched the trade blossom.
Small loss on SPY wc, still watching tho
Looking for better entry TSLA calls
SPY OB intraday, prolly back down to 238.5 in rising channel 5 min chart.
zzzzzzzzzz
295 wc just went form 1.74 to 2.20x2.25 in a few
looking like a bottom reversal on 5 min above 13ma now
good eyes
Prolly some O.H. res here at 296
Fwiw, TSLA and FB maybe "bounce" candidates tomorrow post ER
SPY, meh could go either way but still looks bullish to me
I thought they announced a share buyback plan in ER along with a 10% increase in the quarterly divvy ?
PS - Yes held the st calls o.n., will prolly just take the loss soon before FOMC
<edit>
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-reports-second-quarter-results-203000849.html
Ok thanks, I'll try and stay in the loop and keep you posted if i see anything in "more favorable waters"
Seems like a good call, myself sitting in some 239 wc pretty much flat but ok considering the action.
I never had any luck with CMG or PCLN seems just way to spread out on underlying and options.
Will have to revisit NFLX BIDU and some other old favs
I know, i believe it started printing on the daily mid morning, there were never prints shown on lesser time frames.,
Explanation is that the intraday charts do not get "corrected".
But yeah, I guess we'll go with: "a prearranged T-trade"
I'm still skeptical, but it's plausible. we'll have to forward it to "mythbusters"
Yeah, I just don't like how that may change the chart and it's "studies"
Never get a straight answer out of charting services, just that they use the "official data".
By any chance did you isolate the trade/s that are responsible for the Phantom Phil ? (like time and quantity of trade)
"It's a wonderful fantasy…but there's no way to pay for the $7.5 trillion cost of the main features."
Sure there is, just take on more debt, sell treasury bonds at low interest and then sell more to pay off the old debt.
After all isn't money nothing more than debt ? and there is appears to be an endless supply of it. It's the way the monetary system works.
Why would anything miraculously and suddenly change in this respect ?
I don't see the overall markets as having any reason to not continue grinding higher.
Sorry for being late to conversation in an earlier post, but yes I have the same questions.
Only other thing I may have mentioned in a possible at the bell or pre market buy order by deep pockets allowed to fill or as NN may have mentioned a matched order between "the boys".
I guess there's a multitude of "fringe theories" but makes one (at least me) tend to not have any confidence in the larger time frame charts.
You wrote:
"That paint didn't occur on some super size order either , so .... "
....which is interesting cause it may negate some of my own fringe theories.
I didn't research the "actual" trade and its time stamp and size. Sounds like you're on top of it.
Well, I have no further input or answers, these "magical" gap fills just irk me.
Yes, you are correct on trading levels.
(wrote this before I read this post)
Stopping in here again for a vist, as for the "candle in question" I think as Risk pointed out, or as I see it, that candle never happened because SPY never traded that low on Monday. I happened to be around and that day was a gap up and never traded at those lower levels.
It was a "magical" paint job by NASDAQ or wherever the "official" data comes from
Only other thing I can think is a large deep pocket entity was allowed a block buy or something at or before bell that got calculated later in the morning ???
Thank you for pointing out that "magical" gap fill pint job. I was around and from what i remember SPY gapped up and never printed anywhere close to that low on Monday. It just suddenly showed up on the daily chart and the smaller time fractals never showed unless later on after the fact.
Thanks, I'm still holding (not really by choice) but weekly and daily charts look alot better after today also imo.
My play was a one day swing based on 15 min chart where its already reached and surpassed its top.
Haven't even looked at my premium on 236 calls. I 'll deal with it tomorrow.
Appreciate your input, charts and insight as well, great to hear back from you gain. Tread well
yes on NFLX, wasn't readily available for the nice post earnings scalps/runs after premiums level.
Kinda tip toeing in on the DRIP/Dividend issues, willing to buy more on any major corrections.
Much of the other stuff held is smaller positions from leftover swings (make a few bucks and save/collect shares free and paid for so to speak) But I'm leery to about long positions. Have been for years, lol
Overall the market "long term" goes up so when I'm saying long term i'm thinking 20 years down the road
Well not sure if Chart posted correctly, it was 15 min chart showing a sideways channel (233-235) beginning 4/11 and running thru today closing at bottom of channel of 233 area.
<edit> I see what you're saying now, my "channel (233-235) is more of a range with a peak below on 4/13. Still think chartwise, there's a good chance for rise back up to 235 based on range and studies in OS. <edit>
I'm looking for upside if anything tomorrow based on the mentioned channel and 15 min time fractal being OS.
Haven't traded too heavily, been lucky on a number of small cap biotech/pharmaceutical companies in recent months and a few junior miners, just lost a few bucks betting NFLX OTM calls on earnings.
Other than that, starting to assess and accumulate some lower priced higher dividend issues to just stash away, put on DRIP, and forget about.
Don't plan on being too active, but figured I'd pop in and say hello and wish everyone well !
good to hear from ya risk, you may have a typo ther of April 17th ? as itis April 19th now so that would mean it has already fully capitulated. Then again I'm a little rusty and prolly misunderstand you.
I'd say SPY since I can remember enjoys it's extended periods in OB while barely visits OS
Weekly chart has conflicting studies, I use 13 as a BB structure so we are right there now on the weekly.
Full stokes approaching OS while CCI and Williams studies are still hovering near OB levels and chugging along> All on the weekly chart.
I'm just playing the overall trend, which is up and in a relatively sideways to slightly downward consolidation period.
15 min chart is my point of refeernce for a one to two day swing back towards 235 top of 6 day channel. I dont have the patience or fortitude to deal with any long term paths that may or may not occur.
Sounds like you got a plan and are positioning accordingly. Always good to hear from ya, cheers
SPY Weekly Chart below for reference to the aforementioned
Been a while since I've visited here, hope all is well with you and all on board.
Noticed SPY pretty much been in a two point range for past 6 trading days (233-235)
Still not much time to monitor closely these days but took position in 4/28 236 calls on basis of bottom of trading range and oversold studies. Using 15 minute chart (below) for analysis, fwiw
Looking for 1 -2 day swing tops, on oscillation back toward top of channel
GL in your trades
I know, all pointing to an upcoming correction or drop.
Thanks for the chart and commentary, it is very compelling.
Looks like another IHS formed at bottom, watching to see if it can break above that 167.50 level.
Which is neckline of IHS, strong horizontal resistance, double bottom resistance line, and fib retrace level.
I don't think you can get a more substantial and legitimate resistance line/area.
Quite a bit going on in the daily chart. Added some notes and "crayon marks"