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Legislation now bans drug use
Many states have been demanding for law changes to restrict food stamp benefits for people on drugs so that they will not qualify.
In Feb 2012 those on the Dole were opened to that restriction.
Could that be a factor in the number of initial claims now being filed? They know they won't qualify so they just don't apply?
http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/pl112-96-summary.pdf
Changing the Statistics?
It is interesting that the fact the Labor statistics have been constantly reshuffled to bring in better numbers? It has been pointed out that the 'numbers' have been adjusted at different times to show to be the Best they can be? Why has this been important during this election year? The reason is that No President has been re-elected when the unemployment rate was Above 8. So is it just a coincidence that right before the elections the unemployment rate suddenly finally dips below 8?
What do you think?
Have a wonderful weekend!
The APPL/GOOG Bubble?
How many remember the MSFT Bubble back in 2000/2001?
A ton of stocks were tied to technology and when MSFT tanked the Market tanked.
Now we have a situation where the Markets are tied to specific stocks again? This time it is due to weighting of those stocks to the Indices.
If you cannot remember 2000/2001 then perhaps 2008 is still in your memory?
If we take a look at where the Markets and GOOG are at now does anything look familiar?
Again, use Caution on Longs, Set Stops, Be Safe!
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
Selloff could start Now?
Looking like an intraday double top and short term lower high so far with support only slightly below where we are at, 13500. If the support level fails then it could be the start of another breakdown in the Markets. From the TNX breakdown money is already coming out of the Market. Use Caution on Longs, set Stops.
Winter is Coming, be Safe.
If Ponzi had a Fed
Lets see, the US sells bonds to raise money to keep the Govt being able to spend. The funds raised from the bond sales also go to pay off the previous bonds sold. So prior bond purchasers are being paid off by new bond purchasers. Usually there are many buyers but lately the number one buyer has been the US itself. In order to buy it's own bonds the Govt just prints more money and continues to devalue the $. The reason for keeping the Bond purchases going is to try and keep interest rates down. Otherwise with less buyers the US would have to raise interest rates to attract buyers, much as Greece did. But in order to keep the economy moving the Govt wants low interest rates to keep people spending rather than saving. This will create an economic bubble as the debt increases but the US is Gambling that the debts will never be called in and that it will not have to raise interest rates to keep selling Bonds to be able to keep spending. We have all seen what problems the prior Market and Housing bubbles have created. Now what will happen when the current Economic bubble breaks?
"An economic bubble: A bubble is similar to a Ponzi scheme in that one participant gets paid by contributions from a subsequent participant (until inevitable collapse). A bubble involves ever-rising prices in an open market (for example stock, housing, or tulip bulbs) where prices rise because buyers bid more because prices are rising. Bubbles are often said to be based on the "greater fool" theory. As with the Ponzi scheme, the price exceeds the intrinsic value of the item, but unlike the Ponzi scheme, there is no single person misrepresenting the intrinsic value."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
Not true
There will Always be cheaper labor overseas or south of the border.
The devalued $ might make some American products cheaper for people overseas but has that ever really been a problem? The problem has always been overseas products being produced cheaper and sold cheaper in the US. The result was US manufacturers moved their production out of the US to take advantage of the same. The only jobs that might come back to the US are growth from Government jobs from Government spending. Now if we want to follow the example of the continued bailouts then eventually the US will be a socialist state where every big business is Govt owned and operated. I remember reading somewhere Obama made a comment about Cuba having a good economy? There is no way we will be able to keep up with Chinese production where their motto has always been more for less. Now that is becoming the mantra for the US$, paying more for less. I certainly have not seen any wages going up to match the inflation in living costs? Have you?
Bernanke says What?
So the Govt will keep purchasing Bonds to keep $ flowing for Govt spending? So the Govt will print more $ to keep being able to spend $ to purchase their own Bonds to keep spending? So this continual devaluing of the $ is good for the economy How? Stocks and Commodities will rise as it will continue to take more $ to purchase them as the $ declines. No one is mentioning Inflation or that the Govt is driving it? The only concern seems to be that the Govt will keep spending $ to keep things afloat? This can't go on forever and once the boat springs a leak there will be some rapid sinking imo.
Be Safe!
Another Potential Bearish Rollover
Once again MKTSS is seeing a potential rollover of the 100sma from support to resistance, a potential short/puts signal.
You can see the support at 13120 for now, 1300 critical imo.
Use caution on Longs here as with the last potential breakdown we seemed to get a false rally that gave us this topping action again.
First one was the warning?
Good Trading and have a Wonderful Weekend!
Unemployment/Payroll numbers, we know
Markets rally here ahead of tomorrow's number? Just another False rally?
"The current 8.2% figure you hear about so often is wildly inaccurate and doesn't fairly reflect the true state of the nation's labor force. It's a deficiency that Wall Street-types have long adjusted for with a wink-wink sort of acceptance, knowing full well that the so-called "U-3" headline number is actually a quagmire of exclusions and adjustments that under-reports the real situation by as much as 50%"
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/unemployment-rate-farce-needs-fixing-rep-duncan-hunter-113437674.html?l=1
Indexpulse potential Bearish Rollover
The INDU is showing the potential for a Bearish Rollover here with the 100sma changing from support to resistance. This would normally be taken as a Short/Puts signal if the 100sma fails to recover support and maintains resistance.
Let's see how tomorrow trades eh?
Like Microsoft in 2000?
The big problem in 2000 was that there were hundreds to thousands of companies also riding up on Microsoft's tails. Once Microsoft started to crumble the pyramid collapsed.
Doesn't AAPL chart look just like MSFT up until 2000 now?
Have a wonderful weekend
bbgold likes AERN
This one has turned to Earn on past popups.
Now if only it would repeat last July eh?
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
bbgold likes AUMY
Hoping it will turn into My Au
Bookmarked and Membermarked Psionic, thanks :)
Short lower high at 1320
I am not around this week as had friends in town
Next week busy also
Have a Wonderful Weekend
Thanks Steve, looks good
I am wondering if we might have ended the minor 3 or even i today?
Looking at this INDU chart we 'could' be at the mirror of last June as far as MAs/BBs and price pattern?
Seeing the surge in Gold and the Euro and the Markets on Ignore mode today it makes me wonder what will be in store for us on Monday?
I closed my Bear trades and was tempted to go Long near the close but will wait to see if Monday is a flat open. We could either continue down until Wed or bounce into Wed from here.
Either way I will be Cash for the weekend and nothing to worry about.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
Chart recognition for repeating patterns
We have 2 choices here, repeat the breakdown at 1342/1343 for 3 more days of selling Or possible to repeat the double bottom bounce from last June. As the saying goes 'when in Doubt get Out' so I am going to Cash for now to see how it plays out. Any bottom into Wed and I will be looking Long, any rally back to resistance and I will be looking Short again. For now the 'pattern' that is most dominant is unclear to me, though the trend is bearish.
I am just playing it Safe with Cash for now.
So target is still 1250, but do we bounce first before heading back down.
Looking at May 28th
Also the Gold/Euro surge earlier today could signal some $ for the Markets. TNX also had an exhaustion spike down this am that seems to be double bottomed, could mean some $ back into the Markets if a short covering rally into EOD.
INDU a long way from it's 100sma, which triggered short yesterday.
Might be early but want to lock in my gains rather than take the chance of a repeating spike higher here.
Closed 1/2 short
This would be another 1/3 of my original position.
Just cautious of some short covering bounce into the close.
Will see how things trade into 2:30
Closed out all now, 2pm a bounce setup
Great Chart, watch Green lines
A bounce back to 1292 as resistance could repeat the selling that was seen when 1342/1343 rolled over, we shall see.
Eurozone Unemployment rises to 11%
Here is the link and part of the story.
Is it where the US is heading?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-unemployment-rises-record-105005118.html?l=1
"The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro zone reached 11 percent in March and April, the highest since the start of the data in 1995, Eurostat, the European statistical agency said in Luxembourg. The previous record had been 10.9 percent in February, Eurostat said, after it revised March’s figure upward from the 10.9 percent initially estimated.
“We have an economy that’s freezing up, it’s clearly not creating jobs,” Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank in London, said. “But right now policy makers’ main concern is to ensure that the peripheral countries’ governments and banks can stay afloat. Given that, the real economic data is taking a back seat.”
But before long, he said, unemployment “is going to be a major problem for those countries,” as it rises to the top of the political agenda and further complicates the financial problems."
1300 change to Resistance
That is what I will be watching.
Another trip to 1290 should eventually see 1300 change to Resistance and selling below 1290 'should' see a retest of support at 1250.
Mostly it depends on the trade you are looking for.
I have been short since late April and have only covered 1/3 of the trade so far on the last 1290 test. I 'think' we go lower so I have still been holding 2/3 of the trade. I am stubborn and have been absorbing all the bounces so far. Smart trader would have exited and re-entered many times by now?
Just draw the horizontal lines on any chart you choose to watch where prior support changes to resistance to confirm a downtrend.
Today was pretty much a 'stop out shorts' kind of day imo.
As far as Max Pain you would want to watch either QQQ or SPY options near this level to see which contracts for Puts/Calls have the highest open interest. That is called Max Pain, where most of the contracts can close and the Most will Lose. Right now it is interesting to see QQQ Put side with near 60K contracts at 60. Someone is loaded for Bear? If you look at a QQQ chart you will see the last resistance top in July was 60, so that would be targeted support here since it was never really retested on the runnup since January. SPY the prior support/resistance rollovers from July/Oct/Nov are right where we are here at 1300 again. Again there is a load of Puts at 1300/1290. If you look at Put/Call ratio on either QQQ or SPY there is a huge bias towards Puts here. Some trade the contrarian but I tend to lean with the bias. So if the Markets dip to QQQ 60 and SPY 1300/1290 the most # of contracts will expire worthless, making the market makers the most money. So that would be the Max Pain targets for now. Of course any big volume in other contract strikes could change the targets.
So draw out the lines and look at the option open interest and see if you can tell where we might be going?
Hope this helps, Good Trading!
Again, a repeating pattern
This May selloff has been trading 7 days sell, bounce, 7 days sell.
I am 'anticipating' the pattern to repeat.
7 days from now is Max Pain rally day, or some call Wild Wednesday, the Wed week before OEX.
That would be my first target for a bounce/rally but could see continued selling if it hits resistance again.
My 'target' would be 1250 if 1300 rolls from support to resistance, so 1300/1290 the first 'step' before another trip imo.
Any kind of Euro/Bernanke Hype up could change things up but for now I don't see anything Positive on the horizon.
Sounds Good
Yes, the one thing to remember is that most all the technical indicators are based on price movement. Many times the price will show the pattern before the indicators on the chart show it, IE moving averages/Stoch etc. The problem with using only price movement is that you are anticipating 'potential' trading patterns that can be altered by unforeseen news or events. I agree that is a problem with the 'wavers' in that they are usually 'anticipating' a pattern to move a certain direction and if it does not they change their count to fit how the Market 'actually' traded.
Chart pattern recognition
The pattern is on your chart, just need to look at it.
The lower high and then breakdown of prior support at 1400 was the main Sell trigger. Simple to draw some lines, uptrend is prior resistance becomes support, downtrend is prior support becomes resistance, then look for the breakouts/breakdowns. You don't need to follow any specific chart setup, just look for the repeating patterns. Here is some fun reading on chart patterns if you have the time http://www.marketgems.com/educent.asp
If you are using only your CCI indicator it would have been in sync with the green top breakdown back below 100 the 1st of May.
We shall see in 7 days
This post the chart will be current, not from when posted, then go up 2 posts for the old saying that was in effect last year and the year before
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=74874114
Sell signal was at 1400 breakdown
That was from the lower high at 1415
Looking for this next downside move to mirror the Dec-Mar rally but to the downside
Yesterdays gap up and today's gap down makes a mid-term island top
I don't see the gap filling at all, we shall see in 7 days
Next Wed is Max Pain rally day and should get a bounce there
7 to 14 days of downside next
Rinse, Rally, Repeat
Thanks Steve, looks good
So far looking like a possible repeat of the yellow box breakdown.
Last year the Markets sold into the second week of June and they are heading that way again if another breakdown at these levels. I would not be surprised to see a breakdown of 1300 end up testing 1250, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
Richmond Manufacturing Index
Out today but not listed on most Finance websites?
Prior 14 Anticipated 12 Actual 4
In May, the seasonally adjusted composite index of
manufacturing activity—our broadest measure of
manufacturing—fell ten points to 4 from April’s
reading of 14. Among the index’s components,
shipments declined eighteen points to 0 and new
orders dropped twelve points to end at 1, while the
jobs index moved up six points to 16.
Most other indicators also suggested weaker
activity.
http://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/2012/pdf/mfg_05_22_12.pdf
Count 26 is Current imo
QQQ Max Pain at 60 this level
Not sure if they dump to it overnight or not?
Asia/Europe sure won't react to this selloff with Buying will they?
We shall see!
UVXY has Options now also
Missed the last few hours of trading otherwise some nice premiums for a few days to expiration.
If you get on the ride just remember this is one Volatile bucking bronco. Sometimes it seems you only want to hold it for 8 seconds, Enjoy!
Futures tapped 1321 overnight
For now looking like a bounce back to resistance, we shall see.
I really hate when the tests of support happen outside of normal trading hours.
Previous breaks tested major support
All the prior breaks tested some major support level or the lower bollinger band. To me that would signal a test of at least 12500 here. Whether we came close enough today at 12600 is the question?
Below 12500 we would most likely see it as Major resistance and multiple bounces and selloffs to retest 12000/11500.
Most of MKTSS long term charts got lost when Bigcharts switched to kaavio.Webhost so INDU is the only one I can show now. I never subscribed to stockcharts to cross anything over. For now 12750 was a rollover from support to resistance today, another sign of continued downtrend for now.
May 2010 and May 2011 both sold to low at eom
1320 prior resistance as support
That would be the first line to watch, 1300 psychological support next, then 1260 if that one fails.
If we repeat the Intraday Euro move then all those higher levels will only act as consolidation platforms before the next breakdown.
QQQ has all the way down to 60 as a prior resistance for support and that one might be the more critical level.
SPY is already below last July's levels so 1300 would be the next logical support area. If we consolidate and sell again then QQQ 60 would be my Watch area. Not sure where SPY might be when that happens though.
Here is one of RCKS charts for QQQ. So far we are in the upper channel, you can see the double lines at 60 where last resistance became support.
I have always used [ chart][ /chart]
Just don't use any spaces, then put the url between the ] [
I have not had any problems posting charts unless the website changed it's server protocol, like Bigcharts did with some of the longer term charts.
I don't use stockcharts.com so can't help with that, yahoo, bigcharts work Ok.
Fewer on UnEmployment
That is because of all the people finally getting dropped due to the 2 year extension expiring.
Payrolls and Earnings paints a clearer picture of where the Economy is at imo.