Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
$OEX daily -
* indicators are setup to promise a possibility for lower action, though choppiness in the
coming days/weeks would fool folks about the eventual probable price outcome
stockcharts.com ( note - I will post the proper links
from another computer when time permits,
am in the process of shoveling out from a major snowstorm overnight,
and I thought I could cut and paste from the SI forum's where I have been active in recent months --- please do Not post a Link to the SI forums because there are too many unrespectful bad actors at IHub who clutter up boards with supposition about the future not based on mathematical accuracy --- Tip, place a 156,2 weekly BB on the indices and on the SMH to SPY ratio, and the QQQ to SPY ratio and the XLK to SPY ratio, and the AAPL to SPY ratio and the TSLA to SPY ratio ...use your smarts to understand how to interpret a confirmed trend change based on a 3-year Bollinger Band)
this daily chart for 6 indices net Advance-Decline line in histogram format
echoes similar possibility of lower price action
in weeks ahead, after a period of choppiness -
stockcharts.com
$SPX daily chart Link & comments - it is possible the selling action in US equities
is only getting started in earnest,
though the chart below will need to further deteriorate at some future set of weeks
daily $SPX price action with Carl Swelin's ITBM and ITVM advance-decline breadth
and advance-decline volume indicators, which are just now violating their 10-day EMA
stockcharts.com
the weekly Point & Figure charts for ITBM and ITVM provide time efficient examinations for each of the indices,
in terms of relative location to prior highs and lows and relative to the ITBM / ITVM zero line
* upon reviewing these PnF charts for each index after the Thursday Feb 25 close,
the potentially serious downside danger is only recently becoming real
and increasingly probable as an outcome
chart #2: weekly Point & Figure chart for the S&P 500 IT Breadth Momentum indicator -
c.stockcharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&r=5680&pnf=y
=============================================================
3855.36 = $SPX potential next upper bull/bear divider
in play for Friday Feb 26 & future days .. bullish for more up with probable upward
Staying Power only if a lasting hold above 3855.36 occurs
3870 = next upper level of importance, if seen Feb 26 or in the future
$SPX daily closes chart with cumulative net A-D breadth & A-D volume lines for the S&P 500 index -
stockcharts.com
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
NYSE number of Advancing issues daily chart -
* today's Advancers surpasses the October and November highs
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Friday November 13, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,157 3,152 3,140
Advances 2,558 737 1,175
Declines 509 2,334 1,869
Unchanged 90 81 96
New highs 61 33 134
New lows 5 7 22
Adv. volume* 752,993,077 214,349,549 417,714,402
Decl. volume* 131,723,444 820,118,605 502,979,175
Total volume* 886,998,579 1,043,675,672 926,079,778
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.31 0.88 0.68
Block trades* 5,479 5,814 5,533
Adv. volume 3,729,455,731 1,289,767,629 2,329,826,041
Decl. volume 973,743,115 3,608,298,988 2,505,297,382
Total volume 4,717,642,592 4,956,872,234 4,864,537,645
SPY daily closes chart in line form with selected
S&P 500 index internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&st=2016-11-18&i=p70195665971&a=523791343&r=1600450077293
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* with the exception of a single day in late September, each day in August, September & October,
the # of NYSE Advancing issues has remained below the June and July highs
for this internal, which represents a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Monday October 26, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,145 3,128 3,146
Advances 388 1,906 827
Declines 2,697 1,111 2,215
Unchanged 60 111 104
New highs 14 70 86
New lows 45 21 21
Adv. volume* 73,998,322 431,790,457 185,460,698
Decl. volume* 750,210,662 275,732,222 613,328,091
Total volume* 826,626,912 721,652,985 833,837,802
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.45 1.09 1.08
Block trades* 4,862 4,657 5,124
Adv. volume 364,221,306 2,230,388,689 1,010,317,452
Decl. volume 3,659,432,236 1,417,801,632 2,932,951,905
Total volume 4,034,328,255 3,698,571,294 4,130,298,576
FYI - none of the chart Links below work, so only the chart interpretation
as of the intraday action on Tuesday October 27th
can be viewed below, because the SI posts do not directly translate with working Links to IHub
( anyone who wants that has a brain can find 'rimshot' at Silicon Investors )
SPY 334.93 = the next lower prior October 2020 daily close low, as a reference for future developments this week or next
* SPY 328.66 = 100-day SMA value at this moment, which is a potential downside target for establishing
whether the medium-term trend has actual Staying Power or not
stockcharts.com
$SPX 10-week EMA = 3389.83 at this moment
$SPX weekly with AAII Sentiment Poll stats -
c.stockcharts.com
earlier posts:
QQQ weekly chart which includes the SPY price action as well ... makes it readily evident what future
QQQ and SPY chart events convert the medium-term trend
to a less constructive setup for the bullish case to possess probable Staying Power -
* all the chart elements and items displayed are important to consider together, as they develop
stockcharts.com
XLK 50-day SMA has failed to provide support on Monday October 26, 2020
c.stockcharts.com
$NYFANG 10-minute chart for monitoring recent intraday lows vs. current lows -
c.stockcharts.com
$NYFANG daily chart for prior low vigilance -
c.stockcharts.com
earlier posts today:
Message #9950 from rimshot at 10/26/2020 11:27:40 AM
SPY 337.41 = 50-day EMA at stockcharts.com using their dividend-adjusted look back price history,
and the 50 dema is not yet tested from above at this moment
daily SPY -
* SPY 335.93 = current value of the daily lower Bollinger Band using a 15,2 setting
stockcharts.com
chart #2 for future days' consideration and this is extremely important to overnight swing traders
and to day traders ... if the $NYMO eventually posts a positively divergent higher low chart pattern while
the SPY and $NYA daily closes post lower lows chart patterns, the eventual upside outcome that
could be forthcoming would be especially powerful, and only if the positively divergent $NYMO setup forms
stockcharts.com
earlier posts today:
$SPX 3408.55 = 50-day SMA in real-time, near 11:00 a.m. ET Monday October 26, 2020
now briefly violated moments ago ... will the violation last for hours/days/weeks?
multiple tech companies within $SPX, $OEX, $NDX and $COMPQ report this Thursday ...
many of the most price influential stocks within the indices
===============
earlier posts this morning repeated:
Arthur Hill's, CMT daily closes setup on selected S&P 500 Equal Weighted
sector ETF's -
stockcharts.com
* I believe the price action is unadjusted for dividends in the look-back price history
Message #9912 from rimshot at 10/26/2020 9:33:12 AM
$SPX 3388.xx = 63-day SMA as of Friday's close
one potential bull/bear divider
/ES futures needs to violate the recent low over multiple days of --
3402.50 - printed in last Thursday's Globex session
** SPY 15-day SMA and 21-day SMA to be monitored closely for what occurs
during price bounces, if any that last more than a few minutes or hours ...
monitor the 5-week SMA the 1st price target above on lasting bounces
SPY weekly closes chart showing the 5-week SMA in lime green shaded area --
343.xx = current value for the 5-week SMA .. price action this a.m. slightly below
stockcharts.com
seven influential stock symbols that greatly determine the price value for SPY, $SPX, $OEX, QQQ and $COMPQ ...
daily chart depicting the percentage performance plot for each symbol within the context of Bollinger Bands -
stockcharts.com
NFLX daily chart with my selected settings &
with selected David Landry plug-ins from the ACP format that stockcharts.com provides -
* today's early morning NFLX strength on the COVID case increases reported
on both Saturday & Sunday was immediately sold
schrts.co
$NYA 21-day EMA is trying to provide support today October 26, 2020 Monday, but
also failing in moments to hold up the price action
the NYSE Composite Index = $NYA
schrts.co
$NYA 21-day SMA is also a potential bull/bear divider
thank you, RCKS
hope you are well, and the project with your son progressed with fun and satisfaction
have a good Thanksgiving and Christmas, and keep on lovin' life
see you around the rodeo
life is good here
I know you spent part of your life living in the Mid West based on your communication over the years ... do you know Tennessee well?
I am spending more and more time in future years in the NE section of TN. In the rural and mountain areas. Let me know if your are headed that way one day, and we can talk about meeting up and hike or cycle with you and or your family. Or let me know if you will be in ID, MT or WY one day in the April through September period. I am dropping my paid IHub subscription at the end of October. No need to have a paid version any more.
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* with the exception of a single day in late September, each day in August, September & October,
the # of NYSE Advancing issues has remained below the June and July highs
for this internal, which represents a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Friday October 23, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,128 3,144 3,123
Advances 1,906 2,113 1,245
Declines 1,111 938 1,785
Unchanged 111 93 93
New highs 70 49 122
New lows 21 26 9
Adv. volume* 431,790,457 666,461,061 436,882,970
Decl. volume* 275,732,222 168,933,343 433,744,597
Total volume* 721,652,985 843,133,003 885,306,634
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.09 0.56 0.47
Block trades* 4,657 4,889 6,006
Adv. volume 2,230,388,689 3,319,149,972 2,786,810,230
Decl. volume 1,417,801,632 826,271,075 1,861,309,689
Total volume 3,698,571,294 4,181,715,704 4,692,603,838
two charts showing S&P 500 & S&P 100 index internals weakening since their October highs + JPM daily chart:
SPY daily closes chart with internals for 4 US indices, showing the recent weakening trend
vs. the October highs for these internals --
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&i=p22856070881&a=585817572&r=1602537496889
SPY daily closes chart #2 with volatile & weakening S&P 500 internals since the October highs for these internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p10524699971&a=581521323&r=1593359472151
====================
my customized JPM daily chart,
with the JPM to SPY ratio -
* for the JPM to SPY ratio, notice the September/October absence of
daily closes below the 63,2 lower Bollinger Band while JPM price was achieving
a potential double-bottom that is yet to be confirmed by actual lasting price action above the
$105 to $106 levels
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=JPM&p=D&yr=2&mn=4&dy=0&i=p66639851886&a=625243568&r=1603544357803
JPM chart gallery is worth a look, and we shall see how the JPM charts develop in the days/weeks ahead --
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?JPM
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Wednesday September 23, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,108 3,112 3,101
Advances 310 1,710 1,852
Declines 2,757 1,321 1,153
Unchanged 41 81 96
New highs 28 30 89
New lows 54 26 7
Adv. volume* 95,308,767 485,203,256 755,591,095
Decl. volume* 901,301,792 449,334,176 305,770,658
Total volume* 1,002,410,614 947,037,652 1,077,069,185
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 0.92 1.22 0.63
Block trades* 5,751 4,895 5,516
Adv. volume 477,168,800 2,047,741,705 3,307,141,576
Decl. volume 3,889,898,526 1,928,721,427 1,288,441,625
Total volume 4,386,532,659 4,028,868,563 4,671,311,682
daily RSI-14 level summary for Wednesday September 23 close -
37.04 - $SPX
37.57 - $OEX
40.92 - $NDX
40.14 - $COMPQ
* it is a firmly bearish chart condition only while it persists
that all four indices' cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines
reside below their 50-day SMA by a decent margin
daily RSI-14 40 level vigilance for $SPX $OEX $NDX $COMPQ -
* bears need a lasting hold below the RSI-14 40 level, while
bulls must defend the 40 level on a lasting basis
** bulls must hold the cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines for each index above the 50-day SMA on a lasting basis
or
bears have an opportunity to continue the price damage beyond Monday September 21, 2020
$SPX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p49247007131&a=589367469&r=1600706818845
$OEX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p30367571549&a=589367470&r=1600706985596
$NDX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p50115875913&a=589367468&r=1600706595552
$COMPQ -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p47098174265&a=589367467&r=1600706069250
==========================
charts above display cumulative net Advance-Decline breadth lines
which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values
The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market
( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )
the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence
The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero
* the distance down to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum downside risk
Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.
Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power
daily RSI-14 level summary for Tuesday September 22 close -
43.70 - $SPX
44.26 - $OEX
47.27 - $NDX
46.85 - $COMPQ
* it is a firmly bearish chart condition only while it persists
that all four indices' cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines
reside below their 50-day SMA by a decent margin
daily RSI-14 40 level vigilance for $SPX $OEX $NDX $COMPQ -
* bears need a lasting hold below the RSI-14 40 level, while
bulls must defend the 40 level on a lasting basis
** bulls must hold the cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines for each index above the 50-day SMA on a lasting basis
or
bears have an opportunity to continue the price damage beyond Monday September 21, 2020
$SPX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p49247007131&a=589367469&r=1600706818845
$OEX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p30367571549&a=589367470&r=1600706985596
$NDX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p50115875913&a=589367468&r=1600706595552
$COMPQ -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p47098174265&a=589367467&r=1600706069250
==========================
charts above display cumulative net Advance-Decline breadth lines
which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values
The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market
( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )
the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence
The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero
* the distance down to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum downside risk
Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.
Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Tuesday September 22, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,112 3,111 3,103
Advances 1,710 443 1,652
Declines 1,321 2,623 1,366
Unchanged 81 45 85
New highs 30 19 100
New lows 26 42 10
Adv. volume* 485,203,256 132,426,378 393,360,332
Decl. volume* 449,334,176 1,086,356,721 440,797,123
Total volume* 947,037,652 1,221,664,949 841,462,493
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.22 1.25 1.33
Block trades* 4,895 6,166 5,280
Adv. volume 2,047,741,705 571,457,588 1,931,925,557
Decl. volume 1,928,721,427 4,243,317,114 2,124,996,906
Total volume 4,028,868,563 4,828,383,415 4,092,430,480
SPY 330.02 = 55-day EMA
SPY daily closes chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&st=2016-11-18&i=p70195665971&a=523791343&r=1600450077293
339.93 = 21-day SMA, which resides far above this week's SPY high seen so far
positive 168 Advancers minus Decliners today
for the S&P 500 index, which is only
so, so for a 1% upward gain by $SPX
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21NETADSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p37198349571&a=422175840&r=1596930825001
$SPX 3310.47 = a potential "make it or break it" price level
to surpass on a lasting basis for the future bullish case
$SPX 30-minute -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p39298918343&a=661020318&r=1600286258455
S&P 500 index percentage of stocks above
their 20-day EMA is at 17% as of Monday's September 21st close,
which represents a firmly bearish condition until an actual
upward improvement takes place by this metric
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p50167057108&a=702407785&r=1596941621860
S&P 100 index percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA
is at 16% as of Monday's September 21st close
=================
$SPX and $OEX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA was as shown below on Friday August 7th close:
80.8% for $SPX
83.0% for $OEX
* the August percentage values are substantially below the monthly high values for this metric seen in June & July ,
which represents important Negative Divergence that will likely be actionable unless this internal
for both indices improves soon along with the upward price action seen last week
* two of the three $OEX internals reside at their customary
upper levels, and bulls need all three to remain
within or above the broad 75 to 90% range,
and
the higher level the better for the bullish case
daily $OEX chart with three $OEX internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Monday September 21, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,111 3,105 3,099
Advances 443 1,039 2,448
Declines 2,623 1,981 591
Unchanged 45 85 60
New highs 19 66 60
New lows 42 22 12
Adv. volume* 132,426,378 846,591,703 720,579,817
Decl. volume* 1,086,356,721 2,320,654,411 128,969,189
Total volume* 1,221,664,949 3,192,923,835 859,948,714
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.25 1.34 0.80
Block trades* 6,166 7,455 4,952
Adv. volume 571,457,588 2,011,210,709 3,224,495,201
Decl. volume 4,243,317,114 5,127,884,231 621,362,058
Total volume 4,828,383,415 7,198,848,305 3,894,157,075
daily RSI-14 level summary for Monday September 21st close -
39.25 - $SPX
39.33 - $OEX
42.43 - $NDX
41.80 - $COMPQ
* it is a firmly bearish chart condition only while it persists
that all four indices' cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines
reside below their 50-day SMA by a decent margin
daily RSI-14 40 level vigilance for $SPX $OEX $NDX $COMPQ -
* bears need a lasting hold below the RSI-14 40 level, while
bulls must defend the 40 level on a lasting basis
** bulls must hold the cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines for each index above the 50-day SMA on a lasting basis
or
bears have an opportunity to continue the price damage beyond Monday September 21, 2020
$SPX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p49247007131&a=589367469&r=1600706818845
$OEX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p30367571549&a=589367470&r=1600706985596
$NDX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p50115875913&a=589367468&r=1600706595552
$COMPQ -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p47098174265&a=589367467&r=1600706069250
==========================
charts above display cumulative net Advance-Decline breadth lines
which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values
The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market
( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )
the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence
The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero
* the distance down to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum downside risk
Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.
Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power
SPY 325.58 = 15-week SMA,
which now resides above today's price action at this moment
day low so far today is 321.73
SPY weekly showing the 15 simple moving average shaded
on the chart in light green -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&i=p30051282942&a=625675189&r=1600709267524
daily RSI-14 40 level vigilance for $SPX $OEX $NDX $COMPQ -
* bears need a lasting hold below the RSI-14 40 level, while
bulls must defend the 40 level on a lasting basis
** bulls must hold the cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines for each index above the 50-day SMA on a lasting basis
or
bears have an opportunity to continue the price damage beyond Monday September 21, 2020
$SPX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p49247007131&a=589367469&r=1600706818845
$OEX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p30367571549&a=589367470&r=1600706985596
$NDX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p50115875913&a=589367468&r=1600706595552
$COMPQ -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p47098174265&a=589367467&r=1600706069250
monthly ITBM for $SPX in Point & Figure chart form -
* Carl Swenlin's Intermediate Term Advance-Decline Breath Momentum continues to decline in September 2020,
and now the ITBM resides briefly below its zero line
http://c.stockcharts.com/pnf/chart?c=!ITBMRASPX,PFTBMDNRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&r=5556&pnf=y
==========================
charts above display cumulative net Advance-Decline breadth lines
which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values
The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market
( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )
the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence
The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero
* the distance down to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum downside risk
Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.
Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Friday September 18, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,105 3,100 3,081
Advances 1,039 1,167 1,438
Declines 1,981 1,836 1,546
Unchanged 85 97 97
New highs 66 46 32
New lows 22 11 24
Adv. volume* 846,591,703 433,555,654 446,628,809
Decl. volume* 2,320,654,411 597,127,181 363,062,662
Total volume* 3,192,923,835 1,044,230,112 821,935,034
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.34 0.72 0.81
Block trades* 7,455 5,683 5,101
Adv. volume 2,011,210,709 2,015,827,542 1,975,131,471
Decl. volume 5,127,884,231 2,275,240,025 1,711,745,646
Total volume 7,198,848,305 4,347,050,344 3,738,738,320
$SPX daily with S&P 500 McO and McSum -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p70101912448&a=340963635&r=1600476939042
$NDX daily with McO & McSum -
* the Nasdaq 100 index cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners line resides
below the 50-day simple moving average,
which is a firmly bearish chart condition while it persists
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p41661412538&a=589367468&r=1600477313184
$COMPQ daily with McO & McSum -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p71160816970&a=589367467&r=1600477160148
AAPL daily -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p47882052067&a=809318976&r=1600476364168
* for a bullish case to re-establish itself for AAPL
and
for SPY & QQQ
the AAPL daily RSI-14 needs to hold above the important
60 level for multiple consecutive days/weeks
SPY daily -
* today represents the 1st daily close
below the 50-day EMA since mid-May 2020 ...
bulls do not want to see multiple days below the 50
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p50167057108&a=702407785&r=1596941621860
SPY and $OEX today approached the daily 21,2 lower Bollinger Band,
and
closed somewhat higher than the lower BB location, which
is a near-term mildly bullish signature while the chart condition persists
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX%3A%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&i=p10961456838&a=578604193&r=1596723552943
Scott's live-updating chart set for $SPX -
https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?/topic/163492-spx-bullbear-updated/
SPY has not achieved a daily close
below its 55-day EMA since early May 2020,
so bulls and bears both require vigilance
if a chart character change for SPY actually
takes place for consecutive multiple days
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&st=2016-11-18&i=p70195665971&a=523791343&r=1600450077293
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Thursday September 17, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,100 3,101 3,087
Advances 1,167 1,852 985
Declines 1,836 1,153 2,021
Unchanged 97 96 81
New highs 46 89 57
New lows 11 7 22
Adv. volume* 433,555,654 755,591,095 150,881,231
Decl. volume* 597,127,181 305,770,658 742,755,121
Total volume* 1,044,230,112 1,077,069,185 911,078,487
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 0.72 0.63 2.05
Block trades* 5,683 5,516 5,508
Adv. volume 2,015,827,542 3,307,141,576 785,629,015
Decl. volume 2,275,240,025 1,288,441,625 3,311,751,543
Total volume 4,347,050,344 4,671,311,682 4,186,396,313
SPY now has multiple consecutive days/weeks
achieving daily closes below its 21-day SMA
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&st=2016-11-18&i=t9974367332c&a=523791343&r=1600217243738
will intraday support at the 55-day EMA eventually fail to hold for future daily closes when tested from above by intraday price action?
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Wednesday September 9, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,090 3,096 3,081
Advances 2,250 645 1,948
Declines 783 2,385 1,030
Unchanged 57 66 103
New highs 37 25 165
New lows 16 24 12
Adv. volume* 612,205,910 201,050,443 623,885,407
Decl. volume* 237,625,980 809,349,188 253,043,090
Total volume* 859,930,159 1,017,572,370 884,992,615
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.22 0.87 0.79
Block trades* 4,861 5,803 5,198
Adv. volume 2,721,328,869 1,102,396,606 3,032,633,214
Decl. volume 1,151,869,115 3,546,169,811 1,258,830,822
Total volume 3,924,403,586 4,684,314,955 4,323,705,885
SPY and $NYA price bars vs. 50-day EMA vigilance in
the context of the $NYAD daily histogram chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=13&i=p63162874436&a=624707621&r=1599684720117
* 50-day EMA vigilance is constructive for the bullish case,
as of the close Wednesday September 9, 2020
* the NYSE cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners line has declined to test the 50-day SMA from above
and
has now sharply bounced from the most recent A-D line low
SPY has not recently closed a single day
below its daily 21,2 lower Bollinger Band
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p16612807292&a=286429918&r=1586300495239
** shown above is the SPY daily price closes in the context
of smoothed $NYAD
* SPY daily closes need a lasting hold above the SPY
21-day SMA to have any chance of upward Staying Power
* SPY and $SPX bulls need price improvement to be supported by
upward direction lasting multiple days/weeks for the daily $NYAD moving averages
$NYSI daily which also shows that
the $NYA has closed two consecutive days on Tuesday September 8, 2020 below the $NYA 21-day EMA --
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYSI&p=D&st=2013-01-01&i=p20160592972&a=382915264&r=1599014267111
====================
* the chart above displays the $NYSI daily over several years along with the plot
of SPY daily price closes --
* are we going to steadily repeat what took place in 1st half of 2018 &
4th quarter 2018
and
in January to March 2020?
when $NYSI was declining like it has been doing in second half of August and in September 2020 ... in advance
of the SPY price action actually turning down
until many weeks after the $NYSI decline was well underway
for several weeks/months in early 2018 and 3rd/4th quarter 2018 and in early 2020?
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Tuesday September 8, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,096 3,088 3,085
Advances 645 1,218 1,878
Declines 2,385 1,789 1,120
Unchanged 66 81 87
New highs 25 31 112
New lows 24 20 16
Adv. volume* 201,050,443 432,859,050 471,740,316
Decl. volume* 809,349,188 505,040,705 337,326,585
Total volume* 1,017,572,370 959,271,639 814,002,315
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 0.87 0.74 1.19
Block trades* 5,803 5,948 5,439
Adv. volume 1,102,396,606 2,100,635,292 2,384,717,178
Decl. volume 3,546,169,811 2,289,120,353 1,691,555,977
Total volume 4,684,314,955 4,463,963,114 4,097,448,391
SPY daily price closes in the context
of smoothed $NYAD -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p16612807292&a=286429918&r=1586300495239
* SPY daily closes need a lasting hold above the SPY
21-day SMA to have any chance of upward Staying Power
* SPY and $SPX bulls need price improvement to be supported by
upward direction lasting multiple days/weeks for the daily $NYAD moving averages
daily chart including --
S&P 500 cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners line
S&P 500 daily net A-D values
SPY price action
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21NETADSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p37198349571&a=422175840&r=1596930825001
* bulls need steady and large improvement lasting multiple days/weeks in the daily S&P 500 net A-D values,
or
an upward price recovery by SPY & $SPX is not likely to have Staying Power
* bulls need SPY to achieve a lasting hold above its 15-day SMA
chart #2 -- SPY daily with
126,2 Bollinger Band settings
and 63,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p51155575197&a=663833113&r=1596571568090
* bulls need price to hold on a lasting basis above 335.62 horizontal, a prior intraday high
334.87 was last week's intraday low
chart #3 -- $OEX daily -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
SPY and $SPX bulls need price to hold on a lasting basis above the
$OEX 21-day SMA
$NYA has not recently violated its
daily 21,2 lower Bollinger Band
daily $NYA -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p82937600528&a=340963633&r=1599439896608
** bulls need to hold the $NYA daily closes above the lower
Bollinger Band
SPY has yet to achieve a daily close below
its 21-day SMA, as of Friday September 4, 2020
SPY 21-day SMA has not been not violated since early July, which means the 21-day SMA
will be instructive during current & future price declines
* ditto the 50-day EMA
daily SPY -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p50167057108&a=702407785&r=1596941621860
AAPL daily --
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p63318754523&a=809318976&r=1599439454625
* for a bullish case to re-establish itself for AAPL
and
for SPY & QQQ
the AAPL daily RSI-14 needs to hold above the important
60 level for multiple consecutive days/weeks
$NYSI daily which also shows that
the $NYA has closed a single day on Friday September 4, 2020
slightly below the $NYA 21-day EMA --
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYSI&p=D&st=2013-01-01&i=p20160592972&a=382915264&r=1599014267111
====================
* the chart above displays the $NYSI daily over several years along with the plot
of SPY daily price closes --
* are we going to steadily repeat what took place in 1st half of 2018 &
4th quarter 2018
and
in January to March 2020?
when $NYSI was declining like it has been doing in second half of August and in September 2020 ... in advance
of the SPY price action actually turning down
until many weeks after the $NYSI decline was well underway
for several weeks/months in early 2018 and 3rd/4th quarter 2018 and in early 2020?
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which represents
a Negative Divergence of importance...
it has recently represented an actionable Divergence
and may be again at future dates only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Friday September 4, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,088 3,081 3,080
Advances 1,218 583 2,076
Declines 1,789 2,405 920
Unchanged 81 93 84
New highs 31 44 70
New lows 20 14 12
Adv. volume* 432,859,050 231,662,754 625,349,092
Decl. volume* 505,040,705 749,841,772 158,796,706
Total volume* 959,271,639 992,234,688 788,980,483
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 0.74 0.67 0.56
Block trades* 5,948 6,033 5,036
Adv. volume 2,100,635,292 1,289,916,852 3,093,958,796
Decl. volume 2,289,120,353 3,564,967,635 762,502,850
Total volume 4,463,963,114 4,899,618,290 3,874,925,697
Link to WSJ end of day Market Diary -
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
16-months of daily $NYADV in histogram format -
* for each day in August & September, the # of NYSE Advancing issues remains
below the June and July highs for this internal, which is
potentially a Negative Divergence of importance ... it will likely be an actionable Divergence
at some future date only if the negative condition persists for multiple weeks/months
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYADV&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p09228435053&a=760612625&r=1590534237667
WSJ update for Wednesday September 2, 2020 --
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,081 3,085 3,085
Advances 1,948 1,878 1,175
Declines 1,030 1,120 1,819
Unchanged 103 87 91
New highs 165 112 89
New lows 12 16 11
Adv. volume* 623,885,407 471,740,316 302,235,812
Decl. volume* 253,043,090 337,326,585 438,828,368
Total volume* 884,992,615 814,002,315 745,327,673
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 0.79 1.19 0.81
Block trades* 5,198 5,439 4,672
Adv. volume 3,032,633,214 2,384,717,178 1,664,110,896
Decl. volume 1,258,830,822 1,691,555,977 2,097,022,625
Total volume 4,323,705,885 4,097,448,391 3,779,333,253