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I think possible but could be next year before it happens. Had a slight overthrow on the monthly along that bottom red trend line before it held along the bottom and the next several days will tell volumes I think on how this monthly candle ends up above or below the upper trend line. 2138 would be the 161.8 extension but hardly ever see one just run right up to it and turn so could be some great trading on the volatility here over the next few months as it creeps up there. Of course don't see many monthly candles like the October one either!
SPX chart. Every one of the blue lines are duplicates of the red one at 109 bars. Three 360 rotations from the 2000 peak. I think she's due for a good selloff from this point but maybe make a new top in Jan or Feb along the top trendline which is 177 bars right now. 180 bars would be ideal. Been so dang long I almost forgot how to post a chart!
Hello everyone! Haven't seen all my friends on this board in quite a long time and have been missing you all!
TOS is still updating since my internet is extremely ghetto every now and then so might come back to post the chart on this tomorrow. Gann said that price=time and there are a lot of ways and interpretations of looking at this with the square of 9 and 52 or even 144 but what strikes me most about what is happening right now is that last month we were about 66/67 months from the SPX low of 666. Haven't checked it very precisely with the weekly count but I did buy some puts right around the top. Like a rookie I closed them a few days ago for a 45% profit thinking would have a chance to buy them back cheaper on the retrace but it seems my trading gets in the way of my longer term goals and better judgement.
If it sticks, that 2019 high on SPX should be good to bet against and I'll be buying more puts if it ever climbs back up. RSI on the weekly speaks volumes about the short term direction, although the monthly would still indicate to me that a divergence has yet to take place and mark the end of a 5th wave or overthrow via a good monthly reversal candle.
Happy New Year everyone! Hope you are all doing great!
Happy New Year everyone! Hope you are all doing great!
Im still short. Hopefully I outlasted dem clowns. 1083 is extremely good resistance based on past thrusts points according to the square of 9. Hope the tent fall in on the circus. I bought SRTY 24, 27, and 30 Nov calls a month or so ago.
Agreed with your assessment of the situation at hand. I do find that article to be one very interesting read (took me about 3 times to piece most of it together). Lot's of good information there about the why of what is happening now.
For instance, I am the 1970s/1980s person they allude to who grew up with conventional economic principles and remember the S&L mess first hand. Back then for the most part you deposited your money and then the banks took all their deposits and loaned them out to generate credit. Nowadays, not so much as pointed out in the article. Interesting to consider why and when that changed along the way.
I don't believe the inflation stats are correct (or damn near any of the statistics for that matter). For one, they have been revised and recalculated so that they are meaningless in relative terms. For two, in terms of the article and the role of shadow banking vs 20 years ago, maybe they are useless anyway. In the article they point out that having reserves at Federal Reserve doesn't necessarily result in credit creation and may actually reduce credit velocity because of shadow banking entities and the role of collateral pledging in modern finance. Always thought I had a pretty good idea of what shadow banking was but today I looked it up for the first time and it's a pretty good read despite what I thought I already knew. Anyway, I'm going to read it a few more times and also the supporting documents they link to. Nothing quite like understanding cause to determine effect.
Anyone read this?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-22/what-shadow-banking-can-tell-us-about-feds-exit-path-dead-end
I am trying to get my head around it for the second time. Think I need someone smarter to help see this picture.
He's a smart guy it seems. If someone called me up and said "Hey we'd like to put you in charge over at TEPCO" I think I'd politely bow out too.
And that's why I posted that shit twice lmao!
Yea that why I stopped there and decided I shouldn't say anything about that bullshit speech I just watched on TV. Or about the labor participation rate or about obamacare or about unemployment numbers or about the raping of seniors/savers on fixed incomes due to out of control spending or Benghazi or IRS or the fact that pressure cookers are on sale at Newegg marketplace or about any of the other pressing issues that illustrate fiscal irresponsibility and lack of accountability.
Oops.
Yea that why I stopped there and decided I shouldn't say anything about that bullshit speech I just watched on TV. Or about the labor participation rate or about obamacare or about unemployment numbers or about the raping of seniors/savers on fixed incomes due to out of control spending or about any of the other pressing issues that illustrate fiscal irresponsibility and lack of accountability.
Oops.
Oh yea no doubt! They just make the shit up and when it doesn't go where they want the. They change the way the cpi and other stats are calculated. All made possible by an apathetic population living outside of their means and who clicks on Miley Cyrus stories 12 times more than Syria news! Sad sad state of affairs but a great testament to a generation who grew up thinking that no internet access is a sacrifice. Oh my gosh I could say a lot more too!
Lol you're right, might come up with something a lot more descriptive!
This FED led fantom statistic flying pig no volume equity circus! Im on my phone or would say more!
Well guys it looks to me like right about now would be a great place to be short this circus. Right at H&S levels but close enough so that a reach for double top doesn't sting too much. Nov~Mar puts look like an awesome risk/reward. ZH says trading volumes at 15 year low.
Also bought some JCP nov calls for giggles
i am right there with him and i think its the right call. Wish i had that many, that is a wheelbarrow full of puts and then some.
Ben Wills on FOX screaming BTFD lol. Crazy that someone could be saying that IMO!
Yes and it's pretty much confirmed by other charts as well. Some tremendous divergences here. The recent bottom on the metals and mining charts is gann 270 degrees exact from the bottom. I'd say it go much much higher from here although the fit with /DX is troubling to me.
Don't know why no titles with these but the first is xlv and the bottom is xme. Have calls in xme
Are you still short?
Gonna be nasty baby!
Shanky's got a couple of very nice monthly charts here on RUT and DOW
http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/
Man it takes some patience doesn't it. I've been thinking about that trade for a month it seems. Would seem to match with a higher equity position too even tho I'm already short rut. You ever trade options?
I might join you here. Haven't looked at au much but at this level it is becoming tempting.
Here's another very interesting article on the outcomes of what's in play. Quite the history lesson as well although I haven't fact checked it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-03/egypt-verge-engineered-civil-war
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-04/ten-year-treasury-technical-trendlines
I would think yes but maybe not the big top yet.
Here's a great article on the 10 year if you haven't read it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-01/most-important-number-entire-us-economy
Lol. This will not end well. Strange stuff going on with dx obviously about to blow through the roof of the henhouse and equities going higher.
Well gang the news is out and nothing has changed! Except higher mortgage rates, refinancings at a standstill, more part time workers and less full time workers, $1 houses in Detroit, and pigs fly. They just dance around the facts and try to rewrite every piece of data that doesn't jive with the plot. To think that one can rewrite historical GDP AND that the public is stupid enough to buy it just shows what a crock of baloney it is. I'm sticking with the shorts I have.
Here's my RUT charts.
First SQ9, support in green, times in blue, where we at now in red (1057). I think follow that back around to 180 degrees from 1057 and we see 871 easy by month 57 (4 months from now) where 871 and 57 months will line up. Whether that continue or not I don't now, would think RUT 870 Nov puts be a helluva good play and I probably buy some next week I think. Tempted on some seriously OTM puts like in the upper 500s because I think this is major top at previous large resistance angle (twice).
Second, SRTY triple short RUT. Great looking bullish divergence stacked on top of 3 other ones. Gonna boom big here I would think, remind me of EJ back when it was at parity. Lookit the 8 option expirations since Nov! 8 is good!
yeah nobody knows for sure. on a sq9 chart 53 months is 180 degrees from 106 which is how long the rally lasted up to 2008. Also the supports have been at the 270 degree and that is where this 1057 top is on RUT. on my cell now but ill try to put up a chart tomorrow. Bought some SRTY yesterday and studying about some jan puts. SRTY has one of the best bullish macd divergences I've seen in a long time on the daily. May be a double top at some point but I'm still undecided as to whether conditions will warrant it or not.
Big cramp should be about to hit the fan on equities pdq. With rut first run up to 2008 was 106 months, this run up 53 months.
Got your PM frog and can't PM you back. Here are a couple of tools you might like with Gann theory. I haven't used the one that exports to CSV in quite a while so I hope it's the right one. Welcome to the board.
Barcounts labels the trendlines with the barcount, number of days, and the price movement. It is coded with "Peru" as the color so it will only label lines with that color. You can change it in the inputs.
http://www.filedropper.com/barcounts
I think this is the one that outputs to your MT4 folder the data for gannanalyst. I have multiple of these so not sure. It writes the file to the experts/files folder of your MT4 installation so you will have to point Gannanalyst there to use it. You can also do file/save as in MT4 and save as CSV file but you will have to massage the data for Gannanalyst.
http://www.filedropper.com/ganndata
This one draws a 128 bar box with trendlines so you can see the hex cycles. You can select the box and move it and the trendlines will update so you can see if the cycles match history.
http://www.filedropper.com/gannhex
Good luck, I'll be around here and there later.
RUT chart. Looks like the fairy Fedmother has dropped a 1.414 in our lap short term on the weekly. Middle chart is SQ9, green has been support, red resistance. Would think that 1057 be wheels off the bus at 72 months, 360 degrees from support and 20 year 1.272 extension. Just calmly building a short position here.
Saw your comment about the water sg and couldn't help but mention that the Egyptians used water when leveling structures. The cut trenches in the ground, filled them up a ways with water, and then cut off everything above the water line. I always thought that was pretty neat.
Wheels off the bus carnage I think. 91 days from spring equinox
Happy Father's Day guys!