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Early Newspaper Headlines Part 2WSJ: Kindle DX reviewed in Mossberg column of WSJ (7:30)... Rising interest rates threaten to dim prospects for a housing recovery (7:42)... China's exports dropped again in May (7:44). NY Times: FDIC's Bair urged board to take action on Citi (8:12). Our Early Newspaper Headlines comment (5:15) included the following headlines: WSJ: IEA raises oil-demand forecast... Dell (DELL) looks to ramp up acquisitions for growth... Brazil, Russia trade T-Bills for IMF clout. NY Times: China's commodity buying spree. Reuters: May U.S. foreclosures 3rd highest on month on record... China investment surge boosts recovery hopes. Financial Times: Brazil cuts rates to record low.
China's exports dropped again in May - WSJWSJ reports the decline in China's exports continued to deepen in May, new data show, emphasizing how hopes for a recovery in the world's third-largest economy remain pinned on the effectiveness of the government's stimulus program. Merchandise exports in May fell 26.4% from a year earlier, China's Customs agency said, accelerating from April's 22.6% decline as global demand remained weak. China's imports also extended their fall, dropping 25.2% in May from a year earlier after shrinking 23% in April. The weak export performance is shrinking China's trade surplus, which at $13.39 billion for May is more than a third smaller than in the same month last year. Other data issued showed stimulus money continuing to flow into the economy. Fixed-asset investment, China's main measure of capital spending, rose 38.7% in May and is up 32.9% for the year so far. That's the fastest growth since the investment boom of 2004 -- but activity still remains concentrated in the areas benefiting from the govt measures.
well AJ is sorely missed here...we are in a upward consolidation phase right now...it could go either way soon.
China investment surge boosts recovery hopes - ReutersReuters reports Chinese investment surged in May, fanning hopes the world's third-largest economy may lead a global recovery, although a record slump in Japan's Q1 GDP reinforced expectations any rebound would be slow. China's investment pick-up, which came on the back of large government stimulus spending, offset surprisingly weak figures for exports and imports, which both fell for a seventh consecutive month and at an accelerating pace. Global data has given increasing signals of a rebound from the deepest recession in six decades, driving stock markets sharply higher from a March trough. European Central Bank policymaker Christian Noyer said on Thursday the global economy could resume growth between the end of 2009 and mid-2010. However, Noyer warned businessmen in Hong Kong that rising unemployment could still hurt consumption and growth prospects. Financial markets also worry that huge U.S. government spending and Fed cash injections will spark inflation and undercut any nascent rebound.
that's a happy face isn't it?
(: note the placement of the parenthesis relative to the colon!!
or is this better? :)
lol!
Kate
>>>bears are clueless....
...says the clueless i...t who has been bullish and been calling for "watch the sky" since DOW 14000... sheesh...
I think aj's new site is experiencing problems.
If his posting jones needs a fix, he will be back here soon <g>
How much more horizontal can we have.
It is clear form last 9 months if we want S&P 1400 you will have $140 oil.
If you want $35 oil, you will have S&P 500-600.
Hi Kate
that was on my blog and e-mail to my people at 6 am this morning<g>
WWW Weird Wally Weds the Wds before op ex week
usualy exactly as it happened today
u too. Why the frowny face? (:
thank you gloe...(:
good trading to u....
Kate
kate -- WWW is Weird Wolly Wednesday. It is the Wed of the week before options expiration (which is next Friday). It is usually a very volatile day. Often a big down day. Mark your calendar every month with WWW.
what is WWW?
Looks like you had it right (from where did you quote that blurb?)--about the gap up and crash down...only we didn't see that here until 11:00am, I think?
Would have been nice of you to give us that heads up on this thread? as opposed to posting it after??
Thanks,
Kate
John Chambers?
Now you're just pushing all my permabear buttons. Get on with your bad self. (G)
Cisco Systems CEO says businesses leveling out, things feel better - DJ (19.95 -0.13)
They don't quite explain in the news story that on top of the insane speculators and flippers were hundreds of thousands of marginal families who got sucked DEEP into the desert because they can't even afford to rent near their jobs OVER A HUNDRED MILES AWAY! Now their jobs are slow or gone and they can't even afford gas, payments, insurance and upkeep on those $30K SUVs they had to buy for the commute. They're STUCK. It's a real horror story with no happy ending as far as I can see. This is the worst of the worst story so I wouldn't expect the comparisons to Philadelphia and other viable neighborhoods with decent economies to apply.
California is a basket case.
here's a blurb fomr this am...
Have a good trading day today. Let me remind you all today is WWW so watch for a big gap up and maybe a big crash down, we'll see.
not here in Philly
we are buying low and selling right at 2 years ago numbers based on past comps...
Median home prices drop below 1989 levels in some parts of Southland
John Beatrice, with daughter Emily, bought his house in Lancaster in 1989 for $120,000. In April, a slightly larger home two doors away sold for $66,500.
Properties in several areas are selling for less than they did 20 years ago, and that's not including inflation. Some first-time buyers are nabbing houses for less than what their parents paid.
By Peter Y. Hong
June 10, 2009
In parts of Southern California, the housing crash has upended a basic tenet of the American dream: that home values always increase over the long term.
Properties in several areas are selling for less than they did 20 years ago, and that's not even counting the effects of inflation.
The reversal is a bonanza for some first-time buyers. They're nabbing houses for less than what their parents paid in the late 1980s, jumping into a real estate market that has become a kind of economic time machine.
To return to the past, take a stroll down Mulberry Avenue in Lancaster. John A. Beatrice, 55, bought his spacious two-story Spanish-style house there brand-new for $120,000 in 1989. It was a price he could comfortably afford, and he planned on staying through retirement, so he wasn't worried about price swings.
"I always knew real estate goes like this," said the aerospace engineer, moving his hand in an undulating motion like bell curves on a graph.
But he never imagined his neighborhood would drop off the charts. In April, a slightly larger home two doors away sold for $66,500. That's just over half the $130,000 it went for new in 1992. In 2005, that house sold for $330,000.
Beatrice's 29-year-old daughter is now shopping for Lancaster houses priced lower than when she was a kid.
Home prices across most of Southern California have not fallen nearly as far. The median price in the six-county area was $247,000 in April, about what it was in 2002.
But in 14 Southland ZIP Codes, mainly desert communities in the Antelope Valley and Inland Empire, median prices have fallen below levels recorded in April 1989, according to MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate information service.
That means thousands of homes in those neighborhoods -- even houses barely 20 years old and in decent shape -- have lost every dime of their appreciation, giving back not just the gains of the recent bubble but steady increases logged over a generation.
The April median price in Beatrice's Lancaster ZIP Code of 93535, for example, was $87,000. That's down 74% from a $334,500 peak price in 2007. Even worse was the 92410 ZIP Code in the city of San Bernardino, which covers several older neighborhoods. Its $61,000 April median represents an 84% drop from the peak of $370,000 in 2007.
Prices also tumbled below 1989 levels in neighborhoods in Palmdale, Hemet, Barstow, Desert Hot Springs, Victorville, Highland, Santa Ana and Oxnard, according to DataQuick. Several other inland communities, including parts of Moreno Valley, Banning and Rialto, had median prices that were only slightly above 1989 levels and below the April 1990 median.
The median price is the point at which half the homes sell for more and half for less.
Losing two decades' worth of gains in a single downturn "has never happened," said UCLA economist Edward Leamer, who has studied local areas during booms and busts. "You're seeing something that's abnormal."
What's abnormal this time, Leamer and other analysts said, is the easy credit that pumped up demand and inflated home prices in those communities to unprecedented highs.
Armed with risky subprime mortgages and fearful of being priced out of the market forever, buyers flocked to the outer reaches of the Antelope Valley and Victor Valley. Those distant suburbs became the only option when areas closer to job centers soared out of reach, said John Husing, an economist who specializes in the Inland Empire.
"The families who were buying out there were the ones who couldn't get in anywhere else," Husing said. "They were paying stupid prices."
They were among the first to default when the economy crumbled, bringing real estate prices crashing down. Demand for those far-flung houses vanished when prices dropped for homes closer to workplaces. Riverside and San Bernardino counties have registered more defaults and foreclosures per capita during this downturn than other Southern California counties, according to ForeclosureRadar, an online seller of default data.
These foreclosures, sold at cut-rate prices by banks eager to be rid of them, represent the bulk of the sales activity in some communities.
In the 1990s housing bust, "you had a foreclosure here, a foreclosure there. You did not have almost entire neighborhoods being foreclosed," UCLA's Leamer said.
The fire sales have stoked demand. In April, 237 homes sold in Beatrice's ZIP Code, more than in any other area in Southern California. Most of those properties were foreclosed.
Stable homeowners such as Patricia Hynes have watched their hard-won equity rise and fall, leaving them roughly where they started a generation ago.
Hynes bought her three-bedroom home in Lancaster brand-new for $119,000 in 1989, when Milli Vanilli was riding high on the charts. The poplar, willow and ash saplings she planted in front now tower over the lawn, shading her home from the desert sun.
"It's my little oasis," said Hynes, a 62-year-old public health nurse.
Her home is an island in a sea of repos. Houses on both sides have fallen into foreclosure; one is priced $10,000 less than the amount she paid 20 years ago.
Nearby, a four-bedroom, 2,100-square-foot home sold in May for $89,000. That's less than the construction costs of $100 to $125 a square foot, according to Patrick S. Duffy, principal of Metrointelligence Real Estate Advisors in Los Angeles.
The retro prices are attracting a new wave of speculators. In April, investors bought nearly 1 in 5 homes purchased in Southern California, according to DataQuick. That figure is around 30% in some inland communities.
Mohammed Hafeez, 52, a Culver City electrician, has bought four houses in Lancaster since January.
Hafeez said he paid $49,000 for the least expensive house and $70,000 for the priciest of his investments. He's now renting them for $1,000 to $1,300 a month, and all four houses are occupied and generating positive cash flow, he said.
Still, he's holding off on more purchases. Rents are falling along with home prices as investors like him snap up foreclosures and turn them into rentals.
"I don't know how much or how far down it will go," he said.
He has reason to worry. Another tsunami of foreclosures is threatening to swamp an already saturated market. In Palmdale and Lancaster, 903 homes were sold in April, but according to ForeclosureRadar, more than 7,500 are in some stage of foreclosure.
Some buyers who thought they were getting bargains didn't. In Lancaster, Beatrice's eldest son, Daniel, bought a house near his father's for $175,000 in April 2008; comparable properties are now selling for about $95,000.
To home buyer Al Rossi, timing isn't everything. The 59-year-old bought his first house in February in Lancaster for $140,000. An administrator at the Los Angeles Mission downtown, he wanted a roomy place where he could live with his son-in-law and two grandsons. His mortgage payment on the four-bedroom house is $1,050, just slightly above the $900 a month he was paying for a one-bedroom apartment in Norwalk.
The house was in good shape when Rossi bought it, though the lawn had died. The family will be planting new greenery soon. They've just installed a new hot tub and bought a gas barbecue grill as well.
If neighborhood property values fall further, so be it, Rossi figured. The improvement in his quality of life is gain enough.
"I did not buy a slot machine," he said. "I am not an investor.
"That's what got us into this mess -- greed," he said of the housing crash.
"Greed messed everything up."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cheaphomes10-2009jun10,0,4802553.story?page=2
peter.hong@latimes.com
WWW
should be a lot of fun today folks
right, understand...
this market is running on all 12 cylinders, short what?
BP's all in sync at or near the highs, they could push this market a lot higher short term...
i have been writing on my blog about any surprises are going to be on the upside!
most stocks bottomed in oct nov......
y2kate
NO Daily Longs for now.
A correction has to happen first. IMHO
If it breaks above, will you go long?
thanks,
Kate
SPX_DAILY Waiting for Bearish Wedge to Break to SHORT
i think everyone is posting on LG's thread...
not me tho, not going there...
Yes it is AJ's thread, or was---he is missed! But I think he stated he's not going to be posting here anymore...? and it looks like the other great traders that posted here--smilinghiker, Teaparty, etc...are gone too...or are they just on hiatus???
I've checked out this board every day for a few years now, I hate to see it disappear!!
Hi Kate
ahh i would not presume to take over this thread...some people think my ethics are in the toilet<g>
this is still AJ's thread...
we are trading WFC JPM MS etc
good morning Jerry...
what are you trading this morning? I jumped into STEC yesterday. Trying to hang on...
My informal survey of sentiment says no one believes in this continued rally. Everyone is ready for that other shoe to drop...
Maybe you ought to take over this thread? Put up some charts with parameters you like, plays you're looking at for the day...?? it's become very quiet around here!
Kate
eln & dndn present tomnorrow
watch X the steels were upgraded today
Major TARP pay back news today could ignite the banks & brokers again
man the financials are terrific traders
yeah right - krugman caused the late rally - more like goldman keeping the market propped up in the last half hour of every down day for the last month
Nobel Winner Krugman Sees U.S. Recession Ending Soon (Update1)
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By Courtney Schlisserman
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably will emerge from the recession by September, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said.
“I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer,” he said in a lecture today at the London School of Economics. “Things seem to be getting worse more slowly. There’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.”
U.S. stocks erased an earlier decline after Krugman made his comments. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index was little changed at 939.14 at 4:07 p.m. in New York after slumping as much as 1.5 percent earlier, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.36 points to 8,764.49.
Krugman, a Princeton University economist, has warned recently that the U.S. government hasn’t done enough to help the country’s economy recover. Last month, at a conference in Abu Dhabi, he said the fiscal stimulus is “only enough to mitigate the slump, not induce recovery.”
The National Bureau of Economic Research, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is the official arbiter of U.S. recessions and expansions. Last week, Robert Hall, the head of the NBER’s business-cycle-dating committee, said it’s “way too early” to say the contraction is over.
The U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, and the NBER may take months to decide when a trough has been reached. Recent reports have shown an easing of declines in industrial production and other measures that the group reviews when determining whether the economy is in a recession.
Unemployment to Rise
Even with a recovery, “almost surely unemployment will keep rising for a long time and there’s a lot of reason to think that the world economy is going to stay depressed for an extended period,” Krugman said.
The unemployment rate jumped to 9.4 percent in May, the highest since 1983, partly reflecting more people joining the labor force to look for work.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize markets -- measures that have swelled the central bank’s balance sheet -- have helped, Krugman said. “A lot of the spreads in the markets have come down” and “the acute financial stuff seems to have come to a halt,” he said.
Fed officials lowered the benchmark interest rate to a target range of zero to 0.25 percent in December and have switched to using credit programs and outright purchases of Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities and housing agency debt as the main tools of monetary policy.
$2.31 Trillion
The balance sheet’s size peaked at $2.31 trillion in December. It has fluctuated around $2.1 trillion over the past two months.
The Fed’s swollen balance sheet is “a little alarming. In the long run you really don’t want the central banks to be so involved in the business of lending,” Krugman said. “But it’s arguably necessary” even if there are questions about “where does it stop?”
well, da cheif,, it will be interesting to see if the dorketh speaks with prescience or is just another blathermouth.
new HOD WFC JPM monsters, just awesome traders
WFC & JPM too monsters like WOW!
ALERT
watch AAPL today JOBS could surprise the meeting...
hey cheify
not sure about clueless, but they did get whacked!
of course the bulls got pretty beat up Jan to March too..
let's call it even...
for now...we are too overbought here and due for some sort of mile correction ahead of earnings season as per usual..
heck we're buying dips till it stops for now...
bears are clueless....if i wudda told you in march that we would be 300 handles higher in weeks and that everybody would still be calling this a bear mkt rally uda called me nuts.......nuts......snort
heres another dork
dip buyers rule here folks...short what??????
we have breakout buys on the Djia & Spx new recovery hgihs..
rock and roll folks
AJ come back will ya?
Works for me, unless it doesn't ...
Thanks
rr
rr
the trade ends when you have a profit<vbg>
sell early and keep playing hit and run
JO hi,
You answered what I was asking for entering the trade (CCI outside of +- 250, relative high volume.
When does the trade exit? Next available CCI 50 cross?
Thanks, have a great day trading.
rr
i see, ok cool
but is this for the long swing trades or intraday scalps???
Jerry you wrote
"i see no system there just a standard candle chart "
Comment:
You do not see the thin vertical GREEN BUY lines ?
And the thin vertical RED SELL lines ?
Then the wide GREEN LINES connecting the vertical
lines, if up mean a gain
if down mean a loss.
Then the wide RED LINES connecting the vertical
lines, if up mean a LOSS
if down mean a GAIN.
trend
you need the change that CCI setting to (20) for stocks..
i use (14) for the es...
also what system is that supposed to be? i see no system there just a standard candle chart
RR morning
i cannot tell what you're asking me...
but for all intents and purposes...
when the CCI is either -250-300 or +250-300 that woud be the area to either go short or long..
we look for extreme readings during the day with high volume spikes.
TREND1,
I am looking forward to your backtests.
Thanks for showing this.
rr
rr
Once I finish my Esignal program, all this will beck tested
auto quickly for 5,10,15,30,60,Daily,Weekly,Monthly
It should be interesting.....
rr
A more conservative trade would be
(1) Long when CCI(14) goes above 100
(2) Sell when CCI(14) drops below 100
rr
Here is SPX_5_SYSTEM
AJTJ's Market Pulse
A thread where you can come and post your charts and commentary.
Some Terms Used Here Explained:
HFTOM = Happy Family Theory of Markets. If one major index makes a new high or low, the other indices should eventually follow suit.
COTH = Close on the Highs.
COTL = Close on the Lows.
Please, no politics. Also, don't take things too seriously!
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