Zalicus Inc (ZLCS)

[chevelle_69]

Used google to translate....it's just a notice that the ISIN number has changed.

[deepthinker]

This is not a pinky

[chevelle_69]

Interesting...hopefully someone who speaks German will come along and tell us what that is.

[Shark Attack]

One more thing, reverse splitting and then doing a shelf offer or issuing more shares after a reverse split should be considered stealing.

[Shark Attack]

Every time this company has something good going for it seeking alpha issues a article saying how much it has going for it. The rally starts and zlcs management manages to kill the rally every time. If I was management I would have requested a nasdaq extension, or went for the minimum reverse split instead these crappy managers choose a one for six with no follow up pr so my 3,000 shares is some lousy unrounded number.
Really every rally those jerks turn around, a shelf offer, a reverse split or some other garbage.

I'm out on Monday, should have known better.

[dubbya]

This makes me nervous based on an experience AMBS had last year with shorting on the Berlin exchange. They had to sue to get their company "delisted" from that exchange and they never listed it there! It just appeared there one day and a lot of shorting activity was originating from there. From what I gathered at the time, the Berlin exchange seems to have a notorious reputation for its shorting activity.

[chevelle_69]

Anyone read German?

https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/media/announcement_archives/2013_10_04_bekanntmachung.pdf

Baader Bank a market marker for Zalicus shares in Germany?

Baader Bank is one of the leading investment banks in Germany and market leader in trading financial instruments. In our investment banking we develop financing solutions for companies from the German-speaking world. We offer comprehensive services to institutional investors in marketing and selling shares, bonds and derivatives. As market maker/specialist we are responsible for the exchange and over-the-counter pricing of approx. 700,000 securities.

[LasNubes]

I think we bounce back to $7 very soon

The RS took us down but we are ready to go

[To theTop]

Going to 3.00$ I will be a buyer then. Be patient and wait. This is not the lowest.

[Fwd/Split]

Reverse spit kiss of death. Watch for volume fade along with price. It's a shame Z160 wasn't good enough for the NASDAQ. These folks need money. Done for now. The R/S just made this shortable for a lot of people. May see some mini squeezes on the way down

[LasNubes]

I agree these appear to be very cheap shares right now. I'm loading up here!

[europtiger]

L2 totaly crazy

[oregon 1]

I was talking about short term. if they partner up and get approval then yes ,14 here we come.

[deepthinker]

Back to $14.00

[oregon 1]

I think this is going back to the 6 range.

[brigar6]

Very true, the split will soon be forgotten, Im curious if you could repost your commentary that you referred to the investors that had/have valid concerns and were incredulous of the drive to 1.20ish than the reverse split(I cant recall the exact term used by you) butI think a refresher as to why our concerns were unfounded would be appreciated, because watching the ticker right now, I am still leaning towards the we got f****d scenario ?

[Ripping7]

How far will they tear this down to? This is just sickening. Glad I was able to get out yesterday. When do you think it is safe to catch this falling knife?

[BettingAngles]

ZLCS-CRASH.. The R/S effect kicking in..

[linie]

Zalicus - A biopharma with two pending catalysts

Zalicus Inc. (ZLCS) is a developmental-stage biopharma with two pending catalysts for its leading clinical candidate Z160. Specifically, the company has announced that they expect to complete data collection for two Phase II trials for chronic neuropathic pain indications lumbrosacral radiculopathy and postherpetic neuralgia respectively, with top-line results to be announced in late 2013. Z160 is a first in class, oral, state dependent, selective N-type calcium channel blocker that has the potential to be used for a wide variety of chronic pain conditions. Last month, Zalicus also received Orphan Drug Status from the FDA for Z160 as a potential treatment for postherpetic neuralgia.

The potential market size for Z160 as a treatment for neuropathic pain should easily top a billion a year. To back up this assertion, the current market leader in the neuropathic pain market, Pfizer's (PFE) Lyrica, is on track to break the $2B mark this year alone, and has shown steady growth since its initial launch in 2005. Moreover, sales of Eli Lilly's (LLY) Cymbalta for neuropathic pain are also expected to exceed $1B in 2013, showing the strength of this rapidly growing niche-market. Compared to Zalicus's small market cap of approximately $156 M, Z160 thus offers investors a potentially outstanding reward going forward.

Mr. Market has yet to notice Z160's value proposition

While Zalicus is up more than 80% year-to-date, speculative investors, by and large, haven't jumped into this stock with both feet. Namely, the average volume for ZLCS is well shy of 2 M shares per day, despite the fact that company was recently priced around $1 a share prior to its 1 for 6 Reverse Split yesterday. Moreover, the company's market cap still remains demonstrably south of its peers currently performing advanced Phase II trials, e.g., Novavax (NVAX), Inovio (INO)-just to name a few. Essentially, biopharmas with pending top-line Phase II results tend to hover closer to $300 M instead of $100 M in terms of market cap. Based on these comparisons, Zalicus would appear to be undervalued by at least 40% prior to the announcement of its pending Phase II results.

With such a dramatically undervalued market cap, the question potential investors must answer is, why has Zalicus failed to attract the attention of the broader market? I believe the answer to this question is relatively straight-forward but it is critically important for investors to understand.

The answer is that Zalicus is essentially broke, and has a deficit topping $350 M due in large part to the failed development of the company's previous leading drug candidate Synavive. By my estimates, Zalicus only has about $14.5 M remaining in cash and cash equivalents (see hyperlink above), yet is burning nearly $2.5M a month. As the company states in their latest 10-Q, Zalicus only has enough money in the till to keep operating to about February 2014. The message is clear: Zalicus will have to rely heavily on its $25 M purchase agreement with Lincoln Park Capital to keep the doors open, and even this amount won't give the company nearly enough cash to perform a pivotal Phase III trial for Z160-assuming one or both of its current Phase II trials are successful. Even more problematically, a failure of both Phase II trials will undoubtedly be the end of Zalicus; a double failure at this junction will sink the stock and make it nearly impossible to finance the remainder of its drug pipeline. Overall, the serious problems with Zalicus's finances have kept the lid on investor enthusiasm thus far.

Value creation scenarios based on Z160

The risks associated with Zalicus are not exactly a mystery. I believe the company has chosen to perform two Phase II trials simultaneously in order to give themselves the best shot at keeping the business alive, and this strategy gives investors a potentially huge payday waiting in the wings. While the rumor mill about a potential partnership post-Phase II for Z160 has been going strong of late, I believe there are two potential scenarios that could play out if Z160 indeed reports top-line results in the 4th Quarter.

Frankly, Zalicus cannot advance Z160 on its own without wiping out current shareholders. Although the 1-for-6 reverse split has given the company some breathing room to stay listed on the Nasdaq, the size of the offering necessary for a "go it alone" strategy would crater share price; to do so would essentially put a black mark on the company in terms of shareholder trust. Remember, management is supposed to create value for shareholders.

With that in mind, I believe that are two ways for management to maximize shareholder value if Z160 has positive Phase II results. Firstly, there is a strong potential for a lucrative partnership with substantial upfront milestone payments. For example, Pfizer has shown a great deal of interest in locating novel pain medications, and even states on their website: "Pfizer is interested in partnering with innovative collaborators to develop novel and differentiated medicines to address the needs of patients suffering from pain." Secondly, I believe strong Phase II results make a buyout of Zalicus by a real possibility. Big Pharmas have shown no hesitation in snapping up promising pain medications at the Phase II stage, and even paying a hefty premium for pain medication pipelines. The reason is that the pain medication market is growing by leaps and bounds, with some of the top pain meds coming off patent protection.
What's the potential pay-off if I buy now?

As I stated above, Zalicus is already undervalued by as much as 50% based on prevailing market trends in the biotech sector. Even so, I expect the stock to move closer to its peers in the weeks ahead of any data announcement in the 4th Quarter, giving shares of ZLCS a potential upside of nearly 100% solely as a run-up trade. The potential future valuation will subsequently depend on the strength of the Phase II results. Both trials have decent sample sizes (n = 140), are double-blinded and placebo-controlled, meaning that safety and efficacy results should be decent indicators of larger Phase III trials, and the drug's potential for commercialization.

Based on the market size for pain meds (see hyperlinks above), I believe clear-cut Phase II trial results showing that Z160 is safe and efficacious easily earns the company a minimum market cap of $600 M through either a partnering deal or a buy-out. From current levels, Zalicus would thus appear to have a minimum 300% + upside if Z160 reports the expected top-line results. By contrast, if Z160 turns out to be a dud, Zalicus is probably a goner due to its troubling financial situation. Zalicus is thus an unequivocally high risk-high reward biotech.

[linie]

Thank you for your interest in Zalicus. A Q&A document related to the reverse stock split can be found on the investor relations tab of the Zalicus website http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=148036&p=irol-irhome, which I have excerpted below to respond to your inquiry:
While the reverse stock split had no direct impact on the equity market capitalization of Zalicus, we believed that the reverse stock split would provide benefits to the company and our stockholders in a number of ways, including:
• Allowing Zalicus to maintain the listing of its common stock on the Nasdaq Capital Market. Until September 30, 2013, Zalicus’ common stock had not had a closing bid price above the $1.00 per share required for continued listing on Nasdaq since September 7, 2012, and, as a result, was at risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq Capital Market for failure to maintain a $1.00 minimum bid price. Even with recent closing prices above $1.00 per share, the risk remained given the October 21, 2013 deadline for compliance. Zalicus believes that maintaining the listing of its common stock on the Nasdaq Capital Market is valuable to the company and its stockholders by providing a liquid market for its common stock which also facilitates potential future fundraising efforts. Zalicus expects that completing the reverse stock split will allow us to regain compliance with the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement and maintain our listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market.
• Providing a sufficient level of authorized shares of common stock available for future issuance. We require available authorized shares of common stock to provide for any potential future stock issuances to raise capital, effect acquisitions and/or provide equity incentives to our employees. Prior to the reverse stock split, only approximately 19% of the authorized shares of common stock under our Certificate of Incorporation remained available for issuance. The reverse split had the effect of increasing the number of shares of common stock available for issuance, by reducing the number of shares of our common stock outstanding, while not changing the number of shares of common stock authorized under our Certificate of Incorporation.
• Stock Price Volatility. We have been advised by certain institutional investors, as well as by our financial advisors, that a higher stock price might increase the acceptability of our common stock to a number of long-term investors who may not find our shares attractive at their pre-split price due to the trading volatility often associated with stocks below certain prices.
• Stock Price Requirements. Many brokerage houses and institutional investors have internal policies and practices that either prohibit them from investing in low-priced stocks or tend to discourage individual brokers from recommending low-priced stocks to their customers or by restricting or limiting the ability to purchase such stocks on margin.
• Transaction Costs. Investors also may be dissuaded from purchasing stock below certain prices because the brokerage commissions, as a percentage of the total transaction value, tend to be higher for such low-priced stocks.

[dubbya]

New SA article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1728522-a-high-risk-high-reward-biopharma-with-two-pending-catalysts?source=email_rt_article_readmore

[oldtimerr]

Unless they come out with some serious good news soon the price will keep dropping, a R/S is a double edge weapon, if Z160 or Z944 do not get a partner on a near future this one will see the ones again. It will taka a couple of years to take to market Z160 if no problems arise and more for Z944. To be continued.

[dubbya]

Technically speaking today's candlestick was a bearish "shooting star", so there may be more to the downside before it levels off. Filling the gap sort of stuff.

[europtiger]

And now we got some serious bids in

[linie]

holds well soon will be the split forgotten!

Great day...

very well today anyway. correction was always off

[cmoney79]

Wow!!! Only an 11 percent drop so far. I am actually really happy. I expected much worse. I was going to sell early this am buy my shares didn't settle and I am happy I didn't. May have something special here.... Am I crazy?

[Asher78]

stock split

[europtiger]

Be Nice to Hold ans maybe swing Up a Little.... If Not,i guess we go down...

[europtiger]

Kitzbühel /austria

[gio01]

europe ? Belgian?

[europtiger]

I am in Europe,my Bank wich i am trading through dont get These Shares freed up Till then.... Autsch...

Just learning.... Will be on cap tader next week,lesson learnd ;)

[Ripping7]

Why cant you sell till Monday? I got out of this ASAP this morning on the way up with no issues.

[Ripping7]

You can short the hell out of this. It will end up back down around $4. IMO

[HIM]

Can I short it now... Here is how I think ZLCS will play in following months

She got a great FDA news now, needs money to do their work, so they do R/S, then we should expect a new Sec release of having more shares sold to lenders let say @ $3 per share.. And then the PPS will go back before it R/S position( Which I hope not)


so can I short it now..

[europtiger]

Same here,can sell monday... That sucks!!!

[calidude20]

Why did the price skyrocket? Fidelity isnt letting me sell this right now either..

[oregon 1]

i like the way this has held up this morning, settlingaround the 6.50 area. If this was so bad why didnt this drop more than what it is? I see this holding 6.00 and moving up in the next few weeks. Nothing has changed in the fundimentals of this company only the share structure.

[Ripping7]

I sold at 6.75 and running for the hills. I am happy with that and can take a slight loss but a gain overall. Ill get back in this piece of shit when it hits $4.

[europtiger]

Hey,dont get me wrong,i Would Love to See this Open above 7$

[Ripping7]

Well 7.20 is break even from the 1.20 closing yesterday so 6.30 is some bullshit.

[europtiger]

6.30 got some nice Hits

[leach342]

Spike up and then tumble down

[Bart31]

yep...funny how they stay in business...split, dilute, rinse, repeat

[europtiger]

Pre market moving up right now... We will See.... Wish u/US all the best here!!!

[Ripping7]

Those POS scumbags cost me at least $5000 because of this BS. Nice move cock suckers. Wait till 4:01 to announce so bullshit like that.

[europtiger]

ASK 6.45.... Maybe Open around 6.30, move up 6.70 then slowley Down....

[TAFAZI69]

6.15 price

[To theTop]

Ran to 12 actually.

[To theTop]

I will be a buyer after the dust settles from the R/S. Then this runs to 10.00 just like MLSP Did when they did their R/S. JMO not sure about MLSP running to 10.00

[Ripping7]

Whatever the MM's want to do with it in the morning. If they want to run it up after buying cheapies after hours that would be great. But if they want to bury it further you can see $5.00. Best/worst scenario is $5.00 to $7.20