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YM BioSciences
YM BioSciences (YMI) is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development of products for the treatment of cancer or cancer-related conditions. This stock is trading up 4.5% at $2.06 in recent trading.
Today’s Range: $1.95-$2.15
52-Week Range: $1.03-$3.78
Volume: 733,000
Three-Month Average Volume: 1.1 million
From a technical perspective, YMI is moving notably higher here on decent volume. This move is quickly pushing YMI within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit once YMI takes out some near-term overhead resistance at $2.22 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades if YMI sustains a move or close over $2.22 with volume that’s near or above 1.1 million shares. If we get that action, I would then look to add to any long positions in YMI once it takes out more resistance at $2.50 with volume. If YMI can clear all of those overhead resistance levels, then this stock could easily re-test its next significant overhead resistance levels at $3 to $3.75.
http://www.stockpickr.com/7-stocks-under-10-soaring-higher.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
good move on good volume..........looking well entrenched in the uptrend now
YMI a move back above 3 bucks could be coming and if we get partnership news, 4 is likely. YMI is under valued with 130 mill cash on the balance sheet and a potential best of class JAK 1/2 vs incy approved treatment............strong buy........rareF
YMI @ $2. You have to love how this one keeps bouncing back quarter after quarter, year after year.
YMI is priced right for major upside....strong buy......also Celsion is a must own..........rareF
7:08AM YM BioSciences beats by $0.02 (YMI) 1.80 : Reports Net loss $0.05 per share vs ($0.07) CIQ est; revs declined to $0.1 mln (down from $0.2 mln yoy) vs $0.23 mln CIQ est. As at March 31, 2012 the Company had cash and short-term deposits totaling $137.2 mln and accounts payables and accrued liabilities totaling $3.1 mln compared to $79.7 mln and $4.4 mln respectively at June 30, 2011.
Piper Jaffray Starts YM BioSciences (YMI) at Overweight
http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Coverage/Piper+Jaffray+Starts+YM+BioSciences+(YMI)+at+Overweight/7423388.html
Yeah, I think the next few weeks could be nice.
Get ready for a move. There was a reason the founder of YMI was buying stock on the open market some weeks back.My guess this is getting ready to move big........strong buy....rareF
Its flagged as having news out but I cant find anything in my usual sources.
~edit - ok I see what it is. Theyve been having trouble with Yellowhead Mining (YMI.V) NRs showing up here. Ill let Edward know its still ocurring.
I want to see YMI green like INCY but seems like nobody trust them.
Founder of YM buying shares on the open market along with another insider.Very positive,strong buy YMI.
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=ym
Looking at the chart, There might be support in the low 1.40 area.
YMI. Looking for company web site on iBox.
YM BioSciences YMI Canaccord Genuity Buy $4
YM BiOSciences' Cheap Valuation Doesn't Make Sense
March 22, 2012
by: Stephen Simpson
Having spent the better part of two decades investing in biotechs, I know better than to take any "it seems too good to be true" story at face value. And yet, when I dig into YM Biosciences (YMI) I'm legitimately puzzled at the skepticism, lack of support, and low valuation of this biotech. While one-drug stories are indeed risky and YMI has a formidable competitor to deal with, the current valuation on this stock seems more like a worst-case scenario in a biotech market that generally leans toward being much too optimistic.
CYT387 And Anemia - The Axis Around Which The Story Revolves
Right now it seems like all of the bear-vs-bull debate essentially boils down to whether or not YMI's lead compound CYT387 can demonstrate the ability to reverse/reduce anemia in myelofibrosis patients. If it can, the drug is underestimated and the stock is too cheap; if it cannot, fair value may not be all that much higher (but more on that later).
YM Biosciences is developing CYT387 as an oral JAK 1/2 inhibitor to treat myelofibrosis - a rare but serious hematological disorder where abnormal bone marrow stem cells produce scar tissue instead of healthy bone marrow. Patients with advanced myelofibrosis (MF) often experience anemia and a significantly enlarged spleen. While there are some therapies available (including the relatively recently-approved drug Jakafi from Incyte (INCY)), traditional therapies don't often control the disease very effectively.
So far, CYT387 has shown very encouraging data from a Phase 1/2 study that produced 142 evaluable patients. This study has shown that 33% of patients showed a "response" (35% or better reduction in spleen size) at six months, a median change of 35%, and better than 50% reductions in more than 49% of patients.
On its own, that's pretty good. What makes the data even more impressive is that almost half (46%) of evaluable patients went from being transfusion-dependent at the start of the study (because of the anemia) to transfusion-independent for more than three months. That's potentially incredibly powerful data, as anemia reduction has been very difficult to achieve with other therapies.
And Here's The "Buts"
Ok, so why aren't institutional investors singing hosannas over this drug and the stock?
For starters, this strong trial data came from a non-randomized study. Biotech history is littered with stories of drugs that showed great results in single-arm studies or other non-randomized trials, only to fail miserably in full-scale randomized studies. As a result, skeptics keep claiming (hoping?) that the company will not be able to replicate that data in a randomized study, even though the mechanism of action of CYT387 would seem to support the anti-anemia activity.
It's also worth noting that the splenomegaly reductions shown by CYT387 in this study aren't all that much better than what Incyte showed in its pivotal studies COMFORT-1 and COMFORT-2. Though the median changes from baseline were broadly similar at six months, the six-month response rate was inferior to COMFORT-1 (but superior to '-2). What's more, CYT387 has shown side-effects like dizziness and peripheral neuropathy, not to mention GI issues like diarrhea and nausea, that Jakafi has not. On top of that, Incyte will have had a multi-year headstart by the time CYT387 hits the market, suggesting that it can only be an also-ran me-too product.
I'm not buying that. I completely acknowledge the risk of non-randomized studies and I also acknowledge that comparing studies on a head-to-head basis when they weren't designed or conducted that way can be misleading. That said, I think there are at least two significant rebuttals - YMI's study enrolled sicker patients (including those who had failed Jakafi therapy), and those patients started with substantially larger spleens (about 40% larger median baseline volume). Second, that anemia response is no throw-away detail and if it proves durable, will substantially differentiate this drug from its competitors.
There are other issues with this stock. For starters, the timeline on the pivotal Phase 3 study has been slipping a bit. YM Biosciences has also thus far not partnered the drug for marketing in Europe or the US, even though discussions have apparently been going on for some time now. That has led some institutional investors to grouse about management and the supposedly "unnecessarily dilutive" financings that management has done to support pivotal development of CYT387.
Since this is the bad news portion of the column, it's also probably relevant to discuss the competitive environment. There's the aforementioned Jakafi from Incyte (marketed in Europe by Novartis (NVS)) and it too is an oral JAK1/2 inhibitor, and one that happens to have a pretty clean side-effect profile. In the clinic, there's a compound that Sanofi (SNY) acquired when it bought TargeGen, as well as a compound at S*Bio.
Thus far, none of these drugs (apart from Jakafi) has shown a clinical profile that suggests a real commercial threat to CYT387, assuming that drug gets approval.
The Potential For YM Biosciences
What's the fair value for YM Biosciences shares today?
Right now, the company is focusing all of its efforts on CYT387, but the company does have two other drugs in human studies. YM Biosciences has hoped to develop nimotuzumab as a safer type of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor. EGFR inhibitors like Erbitux (marketed by Lilly (LLY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Vectibix (marketed by Amgen (AMGN)) are effective cancer-fighting drugs, but they can cause side-effects like rashs, diarrhea, and photosensitivity that can be quite severe in some patients.
While nimotuzumab has shown encouraging potential in glioma, head/neck cancer, pancreatic cancer, and other hard-to-treat cancer types, YM is currently not funding studies and ongoing development is being conducted by partners like Daiichi-Sankyo (which holds rights to the drug in Japan).
YM Biosciences also has CYT997 in the pipeline, another potential oncology drug where YMI has run studies in glioblastoma and multiple myeloma. Although there were good efficacy signals in the myeloma indication, and data should be coming from glioblastoma, it seems unlikely that the company will be committing resources to this program in the near future, though eventual development of an oral formulation could be in the cards down the road.
For now, YM Biosciences is pretty much all about CYT387. If those anemia results hold up in a pivotal trial and the company can get that on the label, this drug could be the head of the class despite the incremental side-effects. On the other hand, the surprising disappearance of those anemia benefits would likely relegate the drug to a less-favorable market standing behind Jakafi.
There are about 45,000 myelofibrosis patients in the U.S. and Europe, but I will go conservative and estimate that 40% of these patients won't be accessible; they'll get stem cell transplants or other first-line therapies. Of what remains, I'll estimate that CYT387 gets 25% market share and the same ASP as Jakafi ($84,000/year). I'll go ahead and assign a conservative revenue multiple of 6x and a discount rate of 30%. Add that all up, and the worst-case scenario that I see as being credible (apart from total failure) is a fair value of $2.15.
Now, let's change things up a bit. Let's say that CYT387 does improve anemia, as I see nothing untoward in that Phase 1/2 study that suggests it's not a real impact (it's not like they data-mined the study to find some tiny subset of patients that responded). With that kind of label, I think CYT387 should get 60% of that same eligible population and an 8x multiple. That boosts the revenue potential to more than $1 billion and the fair value to about $6.25, and that's assuming no premium in drug pricing.
It's also worth noting that CYT387 could see expanded use beyond myelofibrosis if the anemia benefit holds up. Thrombocytopenia, polycythemia vera, multiple myeloma, and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) would all be logical follow-on indications. Given that there are probably close to 100,000 polycythemia vera patients worldwide alone, that could represent major upside if the drug happens to work there. Given the utter absence of data in these indications, though, as well as the long development timelines, I'm not including any of this in my estimates.
The Bottom Line
I don't own YM Biosciences, I don't work for the company, and I have no reason to sing its praises other than that I think it's an interesting biotech stock and I make a living writing about potentially interesting stocks. All in all, I find the skepticism on this company and CYT387 to be puzzling. I get the risk that the anemia benefit disappears and it may just be a me-too drug that is two years behind the market leader, but it seems like today's price gives no credit at all to the chance that the drug actually does reduce anemia in myelofibrosis patients.
Unfortunately for longs in this name, it could be a long wait for the value of CYT387 to be seen in the market. Outside of a partnering announcement (for Europe or worldwide), it's going to take a couple years to enroll a pivotal Phase 3 study and see any data from it, and biotech stocks often wilt in the absence of new data.
All of that said, you don't find potential multi-baggers all that often, so it's worth paying attention to those that show up. I find it baffling that the market gives Arena Pharmaceuticals a $400 million enterprise value for its barely-effective experimental weight loss drug, but only a $150 million value for YMI's potentially game-changing myelofibrosis drug. The lack of enthusiasm for these shares leads me to double-check, triple-check, and quadruple-check my theses, but YMI just may be a seriously under-appreciated biotech today.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/451971-ym-biosciences-cheap-valuation-doesn-t-make-sense?source=yahoo
lol, thanks, love the otter, but I would have to train him to drink Lite, or a little yeungling on draft
NP, consider yourself first in line! Behind me of course;)
thanks, hey sign me up for some of that $100 stuff, of course, I would take that $6-$8 I think she's worth today!!!!
What's with the wacky L2 today? NSDQ controlling everything and then the other bids and ask are miles away.
This is a great board. Good chatter, not a lot of clutter, everyone on top of things posting related material.
What more could you ask for? Ok $100 SP, but besides that;)
YMI is still in a great position and will begin its climb back into the 2.20s range today.There loaded with cash and this one is very under-valued at these levels.6 by year end.IMO
Still long, holding 15 K shares.
Many people dont even try!
well, I wouldn't call it great, lol, but I tryin
Bio, u still long on this stock
You are doing a great job! keep it up. $YMI
I agree, I just try to post what's out there so everyone can make their own opinions....
Those motley fool articles are always such garbage.
.....Discovery Capital Management reports 7.2% passive stake in YM Biosciences
.Symbol Price Change
YMI 1.92 -0.03
YMI
These Cold Stocks Are Heating Up
By Rich Duprey | More Articles
March 9, 2012 | Comments (3)
When a stock's share price is lower than a North Dakota thermometer in February, investors tend to give it the cold shoulder. But as the market warms to a stock's prospects, its price can heat up in a hurry. Alas, you can rarely tell that a stock is melting investors' hearts until after it's made that mercury leap.
Taking the market's temperature ?
But Motley Fool CAPS' proprietary ratings, aggregated from the opinions of 180,000-plus members, offer a great way to monitor investor sentiment. Following a CAPS rating trend can help us determine the best time to invest. Let's look at previously low-rated companies that have recently enjoyed a bump in investor confidence to the top tiers and see whether they're truly heating up -- or headed back to the deep freeze.
Company
CAPS Rating (out of 5 max)
Recent Price
EPS Growth Next Year
Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU ) **** $2.43 19%
YM BioSciences (NYSE: YMI ) **** $1.95 (14%)
Source: Motley Fool CAPS; NM = not meaningful.
Obviously, this is not a list of stocks to buy -- just a starting point for further research. Yet if some of the best investing minds are taking notice of these stocks, maybe we should too.
Caution: Contents may be hot
According to Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO ) , mobile-data traffic growth doubled for the fourth year in a row last year with smartphone usage tripling even though as of 2012, basic handsets still account for 88% of the devices on the market. That said, smartphones represent 82% of total handset traffic. What that portends is that mobile-data traffic will increase 18-fold by 2016 and as 4G networks multiply, it will represent more than one-third of all traffic, with smartphones alone generating a 17-fold increase in traffic.
Those kinds of numbers represent huge upside potential for Alcatel-Lucent, which owns 20% of the long-term evolution market, but more importantly, to meet the massive demands placed on the networks, they're going to have to move to small-cell wireless technology. Alcatel holds 25 mobile operator commercial femtocell deployment agreements whose importance only grows as the industry moves further away from 3G and closer to higher capacity 4G and LTE, especially in urban environments. It's why I'm rating Alcatel to outperform on CAPS.
Of course, the risk is that competitors and other technologies are swarming in on the opportunity as well. Cisco, for example, recently announced its "small-cell gateway" and AT&T (NYSE: T ) will be testing out small cells in its network sometime this year. But it is Alcatel's dominance here that attracts CAPS member rymico:
Owner of many important patents and will be a key player in the transition by wireless carriers to smaller and more frequent cell sizes which will better handle today's data rich mobile world.
Tell me in the comments section below or on the Alcatel-Lucent CAPS page if going smaller is the key to growing bigger, then add it to your Watchlist to see how it handles the competitive pressure against its rivals.
Testing, testing
Biotech YM BioSciences has been riding the success of its clinical trials with its JAK1 and JAK2 Inhibitor CYT387, a once-a-day treatment for myelofibrosis. Even after the recent pullback in its shares, partially as a result of a follow-on offering, YM still trades 18% higher so far this year than last.
As a once-a-day regimen, CYT387 has a better profile than Incyte's (Nasdaq: INCY ) twice-daily Jakafi program, but it's got to be admitted that it's still in the early testing stages, while Jakafi is already on the market and getting assistance from Novartis in marketing it globally.
YM got a boost for the "significant and durable responses" in ongoing phase 1 and phase 2 trials, but there's still a very long road before it ever gets to market. Regardless, analysts believe YM is undervalued based on its potential for addressing myelofibrosis, let alone other indications. That could lead to some other pharma giant coming in and wanting to partner with it -- or an acquisition is always a possibility. With pharmaceuticals facing anemic pipelines ahead of the patent cliff, buying new drugs is an easy way to achieve growth.
Of the 30 CAPS All-Stars weighing in on the biotech, only one thinks it won't outperform the market indexes. Add YM BioSciences to the Fool's free portfolio tracker to see who if anyone comes along to bolster its prospects.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/09/these-cold-stocks-are-heating-up.aspx
I wonder how many more Yellowhead Mining updates we're going to get posted here, lol?
johan, I think you are spot on....I have seen this before when talks are entered into, the minor company gets funding in place prior to the announcement to releive the major from having to not only pay for the science, but also the study...
The extra cash gives them complete control in how they want to move in the near future. It also gives them leverage in partnership discussions. It shows they are willing to take this through phase3 on their own if need be. They've stated publically that they are looking for a partner to move CT387 through phase3 so let's see what happens in the next few months. I think they partner no later than the end of April....JMHO of course
The company will be fine. The SP may remain stagnant or drop some until this issue clears. Im just wondering why they issued at all since they have so much cash on hand already. There may be something else to be announced yet. Strange anyways.
9:01AM YM BioSciences prices $70 mln public offering of common shares at $2.00 per share (YMI) 2.05 : Co announced the pricing of 35 mln common shares at $2.00 per common share in its previously announced underwritten public offering. Co intends to use the net proceeds from this offering to fund its ongoing drug development activities and for general corporate purposes and working capital.
So they priced it at 2. Is now good time to buy. Alot of volume today in this range must have some significant things happening
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YMI BioSciences, Inc.
CYT997 has completed two Phase I studies in advanced solid tumors and is currently being studied in a Phase II clinical trial in combination with chemotherapy in patients with relapsed glioblastoma multiforme. Results from the intravenous Phase I dose escalation study were published in the British Journal of Cancer (Lickliter et al, 2010), and demonstrated clinically meaningful disease stabilization in the majority of patients treated. Data showed that CYT997 administration was associated with changes in plasma and imaging biomarkers consistent with vascular disruption in tumors. Magnetic resonance imaging showed significant changes in tumor perfusion consistent with vascular disruption in some patients. Data from the Phase I oral study of CYT997 in patients with advanced cancer were reported at ASCO 2009 (Francesconi et al, 2009).
2011 2nd Quarter http://www.ymbiosciences.com/upload_files/YM_Q2_2011.pdf
2011 3rd Quarter http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/YMI/news
2010 Annual Report 10-K http://www.ymbiosciences.com/upload_files/YM_AR_2010.pdf
Website http://www.ymbiosciences.com/
Yahoo Finance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=YMI
Google Finance http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=YMI
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