XL Capital Ltd (fka XL) (XL)

[texassquid]

I'm still on the sidelines waiting for a new entry point, I will more than likely wait till next week

[monkeyfrog]

Two days in a row we had a squirrely close - bid was at $3.51 and at 4:00pm dropped right thru all the bids to sell 156 shares at $3.43, Then imediately followed with a 250k block at $3,51 and later another 200k at $3.52. Definately setting up for a nice run- errr that is if the world doesn't collapse before the accumulator is done.

[711tc]

You'll get your chance. It always gets back near 3, but I do wish I would have got in and flipped it cuz it took off fast! I went with another stock on the low and it was one that I wanted to get and hang onto until it nears their financials, so I'm happy.

[texassquid]

LOL, maybe I'm wrong, looking strong so far, but no way am I going to chase this so I will continue sitting on the sidelines until another good sized dip comes

[texassquid]

Would have been a nice buy considering where the PPS is right now, but I don't think it will stay this high short term, it definitely seems to be moving with the market today and the sentiment is still far from positive so I am looking for this to go back down around $3 to $3.15

[711tc]

Saw XL get down to 3.34 and was tempted, but didn't pull the trigger. Waiting.

[texassquid]

Gap in trap this morning? Lets wait and see, I'm staying out of the martket today and probably the rest of this week until someone to add some damn stability to this market

[711tc]

I'm careful about what I buy using margin dollars. I was pretty confident when I bought XL @2.63 with margin funds that it was way underpriced. The main reason that I opened a margin account was because I started flipping and I didn't want a hold on the funds until after the transactions settled. I was naive about it before I opened it and thought it would be a complicated process, but it was all online and took about 3 minutes to fill out the form and less than a day to be up and running. You don't have to use the funds that they make available to you.

[texassquid]

Yeah, but can't margin accounts be really bad? If you borrow money doesn't the broker demand it back in x amount of days?

[garza]

Smart man!

[711tc]

That's the only way to go right now. I've made more money in the crappy market flipping shares than I did investing. I opened a margin account to get a little more freedom with trading.

[texassquid]

Yeah, I like XL long term, but no way do I want to become a bagholder in this crappy market. I will look to get back in here at hopefully the $3 range as you said. I really don't see any stock as a safe investment for a long while, for me I just plan on buying and selling a 2-3days later if I don't get put on restrictions by my brokers lol

[711tc]

Good move - you got out before you took a loss. Have some buys in on a couple of other stocks, but really low balled and don't expect my orders to take until (or if) the market gets down 300 pts. Waiting for XL to get closer to 3.00.

[texassquid]

I sold at $4.02, the market is CRAP and until our government can do their job we as investors will continue to get screwed

[texassquid]

I'm really hoping for a EOD rally, I do think we will see a pretty big dip during lunch though so I hope it bounces back

[711tc]

The rumor was out there a few months ago.....the perception was positive and it should help the value not hurt it.

[MWM]

http://www.mffais.com/xl.html

[garza]

SEC 13 G Filings Posted. BOOM

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.663887/browse_thread/thread/cc33dbba3b5af42a#

[texassquid]

Yes indeed incredible, but we'll see after tomorrow whether it was a good .01 miss or not, who knows maybe you saved your a** by missing it, hopefully not for our case, but you never know

[garza]

That's incredible.

[711tc]

Missed it - I was in a meeting. Seriously, by 1 cent.

[texassquid]

I totally agree Lender, I believe tomorrow we start another leg up, I'd really like to see us close higher than our high of yesterday to keep this going chart wise

[texassquid]

LOL!! I see the low was $3.93, did you get the buy there or did it miss your order seriously by .01? EXCELLENT pick on the low though!!

[711tc]

I hope so. I put in a buy order with my profits from yesterday if it dips to 3.92. Don't laugh.......it could happen.

[deno]

Interesting stock you have here. I haven't bought my tickets for the ride yet, but this looks definately worth following

deno

[Lenderboy]

The day before earnings XL got absolutely destroyed down to the $2s. The people that ran it down there knew full well what would happen the next day. Same is happening today.

[texassquid]

To be honest I'm completely fine with todays trading so far, this is trading down only because the rest of the market is trading down so no blood bath of people taking profits after a 60% spike, I think as long as we maintain this stability I think we move above $5 tomorrow as well

[mlkrborn]

lenderboy! thnx!
need to do read mo! Got burned with f...g SCT.
By the way rumor is you lend low IR money to prevent systemic disaster? Dont forget the needy!
GL

[Lenderboy]

Well, I was wrong about the gap. Oh well.

If we get a doji today at 4.50, I'd be happy with that. Tomorrow is a new day. Who doesn't want to be in the stock by Monday morning?

$5+ tomorrow's close.

[Lenderboy]

All re-insurance companies got creamed this winter. This one got hit worse than most %-wise because analysts were concerned about D&O loss, hurricaine loss, investment portfolio loss, and other worries. The earnings and call yesterday pretty much cleared up what people were worried about.

Value is $16+.

[mlkrborn]

$2.56-$40 52 WEEKS RANGE! WHY SO LOW AND RECENTLY UP AGAIN? tia
GLLs

[texassquid]

Market is down as a whole, good time to jump in. I believe the market will turn around this afternoon and then run into tomorrow, obviously all just my opinion

[texassquid]

A couple of observations on XL....

The move off of the $3.45 low in October took the stock up to $13 in three trading sessions. Each day it gapped higher and closed above the open.

Near term a similar more muted move is possible here, moving up to 7-9 range.

Medium term I believe the shares will trend up to the 10 - 13 range.

Long term (18 months) the shares could see 20 - 30 range depending on market sentiment.

During the run-up I will be looking for dividends, and as share price stabilizes covered call writing can produce decent income.

This stock sold off like so many others as a result of irrational negative sentiment. The spike downward in such shares is the inverse of the unsustainable upward price spkies that we saw in 2000. Here too the shares will eventually revert to the norm. In the case of XL this would be in the $45 range. Probably a few years off....

[Lenderboy]

XL runs in nice orderly candles (for the last 3 months). If you look at the chart, even when there are big candles, there aren't big gaps. So, keeping with that theory, if we're in a normal bull cycle on XL we might open at 4.85 go to $5.25 and then back down to $4.65 to fill the gap (before going back up). This time though, I think we're going to gap, go higher, and never look back.

I say open at $6.10 and jump to $8 within an hour of trading.

Anything short of that, and I will be disappointed.

(how's that for some hype)

No, but seriously, the RSI just broke 50 for the first time in half a year, and none of the indicators are anywhere near overbought. I think we're headed to $7 within a week's time.

Look at the gaps on Oct 13-15. There were entire dollars missed. I think we're due for a week like that. $10 isn't out of the realm of possibility by options expiration. That would be some max pain for some people, wouldn't it.

[garza]

I was going to ask that. You guys think there is more run left on this baby? What's a realistic target given what was announced during earnings (since I didn't even know about them)?

[texassquid]

Ok, I definitely don't want to throw too much hype at tomorrows opening, but I'm going to make an educated guess and say around $4.95 to $5.15

Anyone see worse or better?

[texassquid]

Got that right and I can certainly read the GREEN in my etrade account :)

[Lenderboy]

The 61% gain reads just fine. EOM

[texassquid]

If anyone is interested in being a mod with me just let me know, I've never been a mod so I'm doing a crappy job at the iBox

[texassquid]

Earnings released yesterday after the bell

[garza]

To what do we owe all this gain?

[711tc]

Congratulations! Good move!

[texassquid]

Absolutely ON FIRE!!

[texassquid]

LMAO!! I can't stand overexaggerated pumpers, but ummm whooooo hoooooo to the moon? better? hehe, but seriously this thing is on fire!!

[Lenderboy]

Well, you are the moderator. Aren't you supposed to be pumping or something like that?

[texassquid]

Ok, I didn't want to be on the sidelines as I have a good feeling about tomorrow and a nice gap up to around $5, I got back in during lunch at $3.98, good luck everyone!

[711tc]

If you're into charts....this is easy to read.

http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?sym=xl

[711tc]

It's hard to say. In the past few months once the hype dies off it will get back in the mid 3's. I've made a rule for myself not to buy it until it dips below 3. This requires patience, but the return is worth it. Just because I have the ability to trade doesn't mean I'm going to exercise it. I only have 3 plays and they are all solid companies that I watch every day and know their patterns based upon when the market tanks and recovers. I don't see this as a time to invest, but a time to grab it while you can. I'll think about investing when the economy stabilizes. This is just my strategy. I'm not an investment guru - I still have to go to work everyday.

[Lenderboy]

Nice call. Why the 3.90s and not the 3.70s or 3.50s? Just a judgment on your part?

Looks like a 33% retrace level.

[texassquid]

711, what do you see as a good price to get back into? I'm new to this stock and would like to invest for awhile instead of flipping, but it's extremely hard to pull the trigger on a stock that's already up 40%