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WAMPQs are the best deal right now.
I was doing some calculations this morning. Based on yesterday's closing prices (and today's current prices, for that matter), the WAMPQs are the best deal. These are the numbers I used under a scenario of purchasing shares with $1000 at last night's closing prices and POR7:
TOTAL 200,000,000 shares in the reorganized company
PREFERREDS are getting 70% of the company (140,000,000 shares)
COMMONS are getting 30% of the company (60,000,000 shares)
Assume you were spending $1000 to purchase at yesterday's closing prices.
WAMUQ = $0.073
1.7 billion shares
WAMPQ = $26.50
3 million shares
WAMKQ = $1.00
20,000,000 shares
REITS = ?, however, Total Preferreds Value = $7.5 billion
BEST VALUE IN ORDER
WAMPQ
owns 40% of 70% preferred allotment (28% of new company)
40% of 140,000,000 = 56,000,000 shares
56,000,000 / 3,000,000 = conversion rate of 18.5 shares
$1000 / $26.5 = 37.5 shares at yesterday's close
37.5 * 18.5 shares = 694 reorganized shares
WAMUQ
owns 30% of the new company = 60,000,000 shares
60,000,000 / 1,700,000,000 = conversion rate of 0.035 shares
$1000 buys you 13,698.5 shares
13,698.5 * 0.035 = 489 reorganized shares
WAMKQ
owns 6.5% of 70% preferred allotment (4.5% of new company)
6.5% of 140,000,000 = 9,100,000 shares
9,100,000 / 20,000,000 = conversion rate of 0.45 shares
$1000 buys you 1000 shares
1000 * 0.45 = 450 reorganized shares
(I rounded all numbers to the nearest half percent with the exception of WAMUQ conversion rate, so these are not exact. Someone please check my math!!)
still better than commons which only get 30% of newco and they have 1.7 bil shares to divy up...
that is why I got both... lol thanks eom
Not really if K's get 50% of value then only$12.50 per share about 12.5 x value as of today!! $1.00 a share.
If P's get 50% as well then $500.00 a share then about 18 x value as of today $26.50
So P's are cheaper!!
With better return!!
ID
Looking on the bright side... P's and K's are in the same class
and so far looks like both will have 70% in newco... which imo means that K's are priced really cheap right now and valuation will explode in the next few days or less.
I don't think it will hit 12's but if it should... that would be awesome.
Something? P's better get at least 90% face in order for commons to get value. Don't get me wrong, I hold both P's and U's, but I have P's for a reason and that reason is hierarchy on the food chain.
Got more P and K today...on the dips lol
nice to see this moving up again worth at least $5.00+ if 20% is what everyone is saying... but I think prefs will get more plus newco shares.
the same chance or better as the other preferred...
I would like to see prefs get money since they were short changed on the dividends... that would make up for it and also get some shares in the newco.
it will be the opposite way around... expect Preferred to end up with something... and commons to get a little bit.
This should see a nice gain once others realize that P's and K's are worth holding.
I foresee the U's to get converted lower and even preferred to some extent but for the majority since the issue and outstanding was much lower than commons, we may not see a conversion as high.
IF Us end up with something, it's hard to visualize a situation where the Ks/Ps don't get something as well.
That 'something' could be cash, shares in NewCo, or some mix of these.
Or,... we could still get the shaft.
But as the others here have stated - we might have a better idea how that is all going to fall out come Monday.
Have a good weekend all.
Same chance as WAMPQ will receive any money in new POR or settlement - we may know next Monday with detail in the new DS.
My guess is we will see some money in the waterfall coming our way soon!
Hopefully we will find out on Monday if/when they file a new DS.
How likely is it that Wamkq will receive any money from a settlement?
get ready to load a few... prefs will show some nice gains...
p's are good buys percentage wise... K's are a good hedge.
What about TPS? The judge threw them in with the preferreds as well. And I am not referring to WAHUQ/Piers.
What about TPS? The judge threw them in with the preferreds as well.
whack the bid...
K's are a better buy than H's at this point... especially is H's have to pay out for expenses.
IMO - who cares what the ratio of Ps Ks Hs and Us are....
The bottom line is that A>L... and more A>L the better so that everyone will get something.
It is pretty obvious that if one looks at the initial pricing vs the current pricing, all of the stocks, preferred and common are not valued as they were when first issued.
Everyone should know that each security was tendered at a different price and therefore have different values.
If one expects preferred to get fully paid... that would mean that if one held P preferred stock, that was issued at $1000.00, you would expect to get paid in full @ $1000.00.
If one held H preferred stock that was initially issued @ $50.00 but since it is a trust preferred stock, might be off-set by paying for some of the expenses out of hide... one can only wish that they get paid as close to full payment as one hopes to get. Obviously there is some differences as to who will pay that expenses and if it pertains to ALL holders of H preferred.... we will see as this unfolds.
If you hold K's, one should know that the initial pricing was set at $25.00, thus if one expects to get paid in full, the most one would get paid is $25 per share and not a penny more... why would anyone think you would get a higher percentage than any other preferred is pretty absurd.
The point is that there is no argument about how much each stock should get paid or what percentage it will get... etc. There should be none. The biggest argument is, will anyone get paid, is more fitting.
IMO - common stock has the biggest worry; that goes for any public company out there that has common stocks on the markets. WMI shareholders of common are screaming bloody murder to get heard and wanting a fair share of the pie... I don't blame them.
The biggest problem is trying to figure out exactly how much equity the company has that can be divided amongst the groups.
Lets say that preferred got paid in full and that the amount to divy up was 7 bil dollars....
Each group of preferred would get approximately the amount that was raised when those shares were put to market....
P's raised $3 bil, 3 mil shares x $1000.00
H's raised $1+ bil, (initially it was $500 mil on 10 mil shares @ $50.00 but accordingly, the Authorized was raised to 23 mil shares or thereabouts...) so thus the higher amount.
K's if not mistaken raised $500 mil on 20 mil shares issued @ $25.00 each.
That should round off the amount $4,650,000,000.00 and change +/-
which would be about there....
the remainder divided amongst the common stock... which would be around a buck thirty eight... or $1.38 per share. The more A>L the more pay out everyone gets... but one thing to remember, the company does not have to pay out all of its assets.... it is not and should not be required to do so. After all, this is a reorganization not a liquidation BK... and the company is still running.
Some would be screamin' about the pay out... but that would be what it is if they only came up with $7 bil A>L... None of the preferred would get any unpaid dividends even if the prospectus said that it would back pay any if it went past 3 qtrs unpaid.... but that would be another argument. imo
What the commons would be fighting for would probably be taken to another court and that is where the real fight will happen.
Some will probably say that my scenario will never happen and it does not make sense... lol well if someone can think of something like this... i can assure you that it does make sense to others as well. One tends to forget in this long winding war that preferred stock has a lot more rights and privileges than common stock and should be separated as different classes... the rich and poor analogy... the have and have nots. They should never be put in the same boat unless if they are, one wears the life vest and the other doesn't... then it would make sense. For when the ship sinks, only those with vest float.
The moral of the story is... buy preferred. no matter which preferred you may chose, you will get paid for your troubles and investment. If you don't hedge your common with preferred, don't expect a huge return as some suggest... and don't expect it to be done in this court and proceedings. For it may never happen... it will be decided when the amount is known... all else is just a guess and does not hold any water at all.
RSR
A heads up U should be on the WAMUQ board to ask about that stock.
GO WAAMMMUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
Thanks Go, I was referring to the commons WAMUQ
Hard
That is a realistic ratio.
I myself am 80% P's , 5% H's , 5% DIMEQ & 10% U's.
I still believe that U's will get new Co which will make me over a million, with P's getting me many millions.
GO WAMMMUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
RSR
K's R not commons WAMUQ R the common shares.
No one has any real clue on how/what is going on in the settlement talks.
If any news leaks out LIBR will be real pissed.
GO WAMMMUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
I am probably weighted 70-30 P to K and 0 U. And 5 H's for voting purposes only.
Do you guys see anything being given to commons here ? TIA
Hard
We discussed this on the U board the other day and the price factor came up.
Investors sometimes become blind and only look at how cheap the K's are.
I am in no way talking down the K's but for me I only own P's due to the 26.88 vs 41.66 multiplier.
We all know that even the Preferreds are at risk.
I have hedged my U's & P's with H's and DIMEQ'S.
IMO not to do so like a VOODOO is foolish.
But who am I to tell someone else on how to spend their money?
I am confident on the spread I have on WAMU and if someone else is confident in how they are invested in this play so be it.
I make no extra nor lose any no matter how anyone else invests.
GO WAMMMUUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
Hard to explain, maybe its just because the K's look cheaper. Just a psychological thing. I guess thats why BRK did that forward split some time back.
Hard
I just feel that the differential of the multiplier of 26.88 for K's vs 41.666 for P's is just too great to ignore.
I also understand that the K's are suppose to be paid in cash but in a settlement any and all previous contractual agreements may/can be ignored by the settling parties just to reach an agreement, DO U NOT AGREE with this?
Note:it was CIMIC that brought the differential to my attn a few months ago and I thought it out and had to agree on the fact K's were overvalued vs P's. As I stated K's are undervalued and should do well but & this is a BIG BUT I like getting a large multiplier when my money is at RISK!!!
GO WAMMMUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
One thought I had on this is while P's and K's may be valued the same, what you get in the end may be different. K's could get paid in cash, P's may be given preferred shares in the new company, as well as warrants and/or shares.
Dragon
I was just giving you the heads up, keep you're head in the sand if you do not want sound advice it is no concern to me going forward.
I just thought you deserved the benfit of advice on the valuation of P's vs K's.
I am not in any way saying that K's will not make money just like P's will, what I am saying is that the math says P's are a better value at the existing price vs future value.
GO WAMMMMUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
dragon
P's & K's are both in the same class so both will see the same percentage of payout.
K's are way over priced compared to P's if you can not see that that is tough love for you.
GO WAMMMUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
LOL... I got 3 of 'em to include P's... do the math?
you need to see value not just assumption of what you think it might get you.
K's are definitely a strong buy and you know it... or do you? lol
Dragon
U had better do the math one more time as U will find that the P's are a much better value than the K's
I will do the math for you.
$25.00/.93 = 26.88 times you're investment
$1000.00/24 = 41.666 times you're investment
Another way to look at this is invest $10,000.00
10,000/24 = 416 P's @ $1000 face gives $416,000.00
10,000/.93 = 10752 K's @ $25 face gives $268,800.00
Now given that U have invested $10,000.00 dollars and can have either $416,000.00 or $268,800.00 dollars which now will you buy?
U need to do some math bofore you have purchased K's
The break even point for K's at the $24.00 price for P's is $0.60 therefore K's are way over priced compared to P's.
I used to have K's but CIMIC enlightened me and I sold my K's and bought into P's.
GO WAMMMUUU
GO SUSMAN
GO EC
dragon, I agree and have bought more K's P's and (DIMEQ's which could/should be moved ahead of preferred to class 12, and great risk reward at .65
ILS
WAMKQ is one of the best kept secrets
in the whole lot....
cheap and its a preferred that will be paid.
IF A>L K's will do fairly well...
IF A<L commons won't do as well but preferreds should get paid anyway...
so either way, preferred is the way to go...
high risk high pay out, commons is one that should be in your portfolio... long shot imo.
good plan...
depending if you are green with your H's, I would rather buy either P's or K's... more K than P though, since P's can be converted to commons and be done with... that is an option that they have or pay them out at a reduced amount....
K's cannot be converted and should see a nice return.
H's under scrutiny of paying more than was allowed... might see a reduction in their return.
good luck
picking up more of K's... it will be worth it when mediation is done...
As a preferred it is being over looked and placed on the unimportant list... wrong answer. K's should get paid at least 50% if not paid in full.... minimum looking at $12.50 return..
not too shabby from current pricing.
Being that nobody knows what will happen in the end, shouldn't we have K's in our portfolio? I have K's to go with my P's (maybe too much). I actually have the same money value of each. I even have 1,000 of the H'S, although I have no idea where they're going. Then I have the U's for what that's worth. I diversify the WAMU's like with the rest of my portfolio.
Like everybody else, I'm sick of this whole thing. The settlement talks are probably moving at a speed like that of this whole 3+ year circus.
In good time, in good time ;)
K's a bit illiquid right now. LOL
No volume.
Nice. LOL
P's and K's get an equal percentage. Risk/reward favors P's, though K's could trade up faster and easier. But they will end up in the same place, at some % of FV. 100% hopefully.
I've seen all those posts that calculate why the P's are a better value than the K's. But today 245 K's for 1 P.
If the P's get 1/2 FV that's $500 for each P.
If the K's get 1/5 FV that's $5.00 for each K.
- So 5*245=725 for the K's
- So $500*1=500 for the P's.
My figure puts the K's as a better value than the P's.
Am I wrong? I'm not that good in math. TIA
prefs beginning to show some color, been hanging decidedly higher since POR death....
Mighty big volume today. Wonder if it's related to yesterday's volume in the WAHUQs?
"Right. Provided there is no chance of recovery of undeclared dividends, which I give a small (but non-zero) chance. Mostly."
Correct.
And I put the chances of their paying us ANY undeclared/unpaid dividends on our NON-CUMULATIVE preferred shares at LESS THAN ZERO.
Not gonna happen.
Some people are simply looking for something approaching par. More than par if you factor in old dividends?
Not in this lifetime. This is a dead issue.
Right. Provided there is no chance of recovery of undeclared dividends, which I give a small (but non-zero) chance. Mostly.
"The K's are overvalued compared to P's. At $1.09 the K's are trading at about 4.4% of face value. The P's should be at $44 for them to be of equal relative value."
All things being equal, and in this case the K's and the P's are pari passu to each other, as well as to the former Class 19 TPS preferreds.
Thus. either the K's are over-valued in relation to the P's, and/or the P's are under-valued relaive to the K's.
Each P should be worth 40 times as much as the K's, or alternatively, each K should trade at 0.025 of each P.
And as you can see from the most recent price, and even though the ratios have narrowed, the K's still remain over-revalued in relation to theP's.
I do own a handful of K's in a couple of accounts, but this was solely for voting purposes.
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This board is for discussion of Washington Mutual Inc (WMI) preferred K shares.
Just Before The Theft: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0OaEofs-2I
Night of The Theft: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ojK_9pKpKs&feature=related
On September 25, 2008, the United States Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) seized Washington Mutual Bank from Washington Mutual, Inc. and placed it into the receivership of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The OTS took the action due to the withdrawal of $16.4 billion in deposits, during a 10-day bank run (amounting to 9% of the deposits it had held on June 30, 2008) The FDIC sold the banking subsidiaries (minus unsecured debt or equity claims) to JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 billion, which reopened the bank's offices the next day as JPMorgan Chase branches. The holding company, Washington Mutual, Inc. was left with $33 billion assets, and $8 billion debt, after being stripped of its banking subsidiary by the FDIC. The next day, September 26, Washington Mutual, Inc. filed for Chapter 11 voluntary bankruptcy in Delaware, where it is incorporated.Washington Mutual Bank's closure and receivership is the largest bank failure in American financial history. Before the receivership action, it was the sixth-largest bank in the United States. According to Washington Mutual Inc.'s 2007 SEC filing, the holding company held assets valued at $327.9 billion.On 20 March 2009, Washington Mutual Inc. filed suit against the FDIC in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, seeking damages of approximately $13 billion for what they claim to be an unjustified seizure and an extremely low sale price to JPMorgan Chase. JPMorgan Chase promptly filed a counterclaim in the Federal Bankruptcy Court in Delaware, where the Washington Mutual bankruptcy proceedings had been continuing since the Office of Thrift Supervision's seizure of the holding company's bank subsidiaries.
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The Flush and Flow Team
2). One week later the Office of Thrift Supervision signs a memorandum of understanding with WaMu saying that WaMu does not need to raise capital or increase liquidity.
3). Sheila Bair forces WaMu to get investment bankers in who will do due diligence.
4). The investment bankers talk down WaMu for weeks in press and cause a minor run.
5). The OTS seizes WaMu without any real indication to the management that this was going to happen and sells it to her hand-picked banker (Jamie Dimon). The deal is irrevocable. In the process she puts the fear-of-government in all the intermediate holders of US Bank finance. This exacerbates the crisis.
6). The WaMu deal causes a panic at Wachovia. There was no panic at Wachovia prior to this - though Wachovia stock is justifiably weak.
7). On Sheila's timetable a deal has to be done for Wachovia in three days.
8). Sheila decides that no deal can be done without government support and she offers that support. Wells Fargo has simply told her they need more time. Having done due diligence on a small bank I can assure you three days is not enough for a large bank unless the Government is going to give you large warranties. Sheila created a timetable that forced the government into a deal that was potentially bad for taxpayers.
9). A few more days and the deal turns up that doesn't cost taxpayers anything. Sheila however has staked her reputation on the prior deal and defends her prior behaviour.
I have argued that Sheila should be sacked. I think that is pretty obvious now.
But someone on Wall Street has a better idea. It is in this photo:
Purchase and Assumption Agreement: http://www.fdic.gov/about/freedom/Washington_Mutual_P_and_A.pdf
Popular WAMU Sites:
http://www.wamustory.com/ The WAMU Story http://wamuqd.com/images/stories/westshareholders.png http://files.ots.treas.gov/730021.pdf OTS Fact Sheethttp://www.wamurape.org/ http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008204779_wamutimeline26.html History
http://www.wamu-shareholders-resources.com/
http://www.wamu411.com Whats is going on with the company
http://www.muckety.com/Washington-Mutual-Inc/5002039.muckety Muckety Map
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/wamu.html WAMU Acquisition
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RECENT COURT DOCUMENTS:
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100202000000000033.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100223000000000010.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2130.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2378.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100226000000000001.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229091216000000000014.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100301000000000003.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2379.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100301000000000002.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2395.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2394.pdf http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/09-00734/09-00734-0025.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/09-50551/09-50551-0179.pdf http://ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2447.pdf
http://ghostofwamu.com/documents/09-50551/09-50551-0179.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100303000000000002.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100223000000000005.pdf http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2453.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100304000000000002.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100304000000000004.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2480.pdf http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2484.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100311000000000004.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100311000000000015.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100311000000000005.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100315000000000009.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100311000000000006.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100315000000000010.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100311000000000007.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100315000000000011.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100311000000000008.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100316000000000008.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100316000000000010.pdf http://ghostofwamu.com/documents/09-50551/09-50551-0181.pdf
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/09-00734/09-00734-0026.pdf http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/09-50551/09-50551-0182.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100324000000000002.pdf http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100325000000000005.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100331000000000074.pdf
Letter from Fshon
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Here's the Prospectus and other info:
2. Series K, Trading as WAMKQ
Old symbol: WM.PRK, Issued 9-11-06
Outstanding: 20,000,000. Liquidation Value $25.
Interest Paid: Greater of 3 month LIBOR plus .70% or 4%.
Depository shares representing 1/40,000th of floating rate series K non-cumulative preferred stock, no par value.
Series K Perpetual Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Stock was originally issued at $1,000,000/share. 500 were issued.
SO, 500 x 40,000 = Number Outstanding: 20,000,000.
Prospectus: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/933136/000095012406005225/v23402b5e424b5.htm
Click on the link below to see who has been buying WAMKQ:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WAMKQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06043769264
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Daily Stock Data
Charts and ROI: http://www.streetace.com/calculations.php
Short Interest: http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=wamkq&submit=Short+Quote%99
LATEST 8-K's http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=7020166
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=6793085
COURT SCHEDULE:
http://www.my.calendars.net/wmi/
WMI Hearings - Audio Archive
2011-01-06 mp3
12-07-2010 mp3 (Confirmation day 4)
12-06-2010 mp3 (Confirmation day 3)
12-03-2010 mp3 (Confirmation day 2)
12-02-2010 morning (mp3) afternoon (mp3) (Confirmation day 1)
12-01-2010 mp3
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Recent Media Articals:
http://tradingtipsnow.com/blog/?p=1507
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=arkWV4P7UUWU
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE62307Y20100304
http://www.emii.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=2406916
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35797356
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2010/03/08/daily40.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601127&sid=a0OKMSB9Hy3E
http://news.opb.org/article/6952-wamu-settlement-hits-rough-patch/
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2010/03/22/daily15.html
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100326000000000001.pdf
http://seekingalpha.com/article/195908-wamu-jp-morgan-keeps-turning-lead-into-gold?source=feed
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2910413120100329?type=marketsNews
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVpKoqOLwg8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSaLdi3Ro9A
http://profiles.portfolio.com/company/us/wa/seattle/washington_mutual__inc_/1087111/news/1#more Lots of info
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CHAPTER 11 : http://www.uscourts.gov/bankruptcycourts/bankruptcybasics/chapter11.html#reorg
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