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agreed, VKTX valuation is way to low compared to other Biotechs. 15.00 sounds reasonable.
Mdgl at $45 is = $15 for vktx
Need to divide by 3 for lazy people
Mdgl has 14M shares fully diluted with options
Vktx has 42M shares fully ...
Mdgl has gone up by $4 last two days
14M share OS times $4 = $56M
Thst is more than our MC net of cash !!!
Thank you for your thoughts ..
My Thesis in investing vktx is simple
1- small biotech are in favor now . No point investing when wind is against sail
2- mdgl is valued now $12 a share in vktx terms .. their drug in same class and same progress level
For me question wss to invest before or after hip data
I see littl change we get bad hip data over next weeks
If it drags to mid November , we may not have good data
Hey... so double blind means that the patient doesn't know if they are getting the drug, nor does the researcher/doc In The Field physically evaluating that person, removing the bias that the person doing the testing and data Collection. That does not mean that the Company is blinded to the results or to the ongoing data collection results (generally, nor could I imagine a situation where they would want to be. An exception would be if a company was partnered with a major health researcher that was given the opp to do their own thing with their drug trial, and there was a disconnect or unsmooth operating procedure). A common sense illustration of companies having their ongoing data would be the fact that some drug trials are terminated early due to side effects, deaths, failures. There is not some independent company that is given authority to collect data, and sense for problems, and notify a company with problems. The responsibility falls on the company to assess the ongoing safety and tolerability of their drug trial, and to act to halt the trial or intervene if safety problems resolve. So again, the physician or tech who is performing the dxa scans of these patients, and the physician reading the results, both blinded. If they are contracting with an independent data collection firm to collect the data (which is less relevant here), than they are likely not blinded (and companies like that are usually used for company convenience or sometimes ethical angles). But again, the company is not blinded. Another illustration relevant to our own company. The lipid trial they are running- they asked to lower the threshold of the ?LDL to recruit better. This would have been done in conjunction with reviewing the ongoing data, seeing the results of the patients who were screened and declined, etc. Interim data analyses are the name of the game. Companies alter dosing regimens (with FDA approval, keep in mind) sometimes, enroll more patients than anticipated originally to change the powering of the study, etc, based on ongoing evaluation of the numbers. A rhetorical question that will illustrate my answer and clear up confusion. How did Viking know that they were able to stop with only ?108 patients. Stopping the study prior to full enrollment essentially proves (in my mind at least, beyond a reasonable doubt (my opinion, not science fact)) that data analyses were completed, more than just my knowing how this works. I would encourage you to read more in detail on how clinical trials work and are overseen. Companies spend millions on these, they would rarely ever consent to just receive some envelope with a data analysis at the end of their trial, and give some team of paid researchers, typically working on their dime, the liberty of unrestricted time at the wheel juggling the fate of their baby. I respect your investment, 33K shares is no joke, so I felt it reasonable to give you an honest answer. I'm some sort of medical something or other (in case you can't guess), so I gamble on what I know best, medical stuff, and I stick to mainly that, with few exceptions. Having 33K+ to spend on this stuff, I think you made a decent bet on this company. A lot of this is luck, even with higher levels of knowledge, but I would strongly urge you to read up on how these wacky trials are run... it's a big game, and understanding the game will help you to reduce the risk inherent to this line of investing. Having 33K+ to put into this company, you clearly are good at something. You know many things much better than I ever will. Exploit those strengths. These trials scare the crap out of me, and they are my bread and butter. I am here because it's all I know, that's all. And I like Viking (clearly) lol. Best of luck friend
I agree on that. Genuine questions around the availability of data to the company as well. Cheers and good luck to us all.
All spec my friend .. been around for too long
$10 for each good p2
Zero if both fail
Just because it is trading at 1.89 but worth 7.00 today does not mean that vk5211 fails.
The Delays in trials put a damper on things and Market Makers have suppressed it all summer. It's just now waking up..... when vk5211 news hits it could go to 7.00 fast.
VK 2809 Q1 data will take it 15.00 + JMHO
I wasn't suggesting you are trying to influence the stock price, was just curious if that influenced your point of view. Speaking of facts, off label SARM usage has seen success with pro-athletes and bodybuilders. I personally don't think it will fail, even with the older patients. Another fact is the volume in recent days and the recovery in share price. I don't think again, that a catalyst that's due in Q1/Q2 2018 is driving this instead of one that's due this quarter.
Also .. I have bought my full position .. 33,000 shares a while ago
NO
I don't think anything I say here will make a diddly squat effect
You guys been here for a long time
Am just learning what is going on and trying to go with what facts are
Actually don't thi stock will go lower or lower for a long time if hip data fails badly
Quite clear that vk2809 is on par with mdgl and they are valued at $12 a share in vktx terms
Could be. But may I ask something if you don't mind and I could be completely wrong... Could a reason why you are downplaying the hip pipeline be that you don't have a full position or a position at all in the stock at this time as you are betting on NASH data in Q1 and don't want the stock to do well now? :)
Ok! I asked from some senior guy working at NCI .. he says
"ususally independent data monitoring service. Company itself never see the data until trial is complete"
Which tells me no vktx does not know (based on blinded data) which way hip data goes
Most
Must think we fail this hip .. as vk2809 is worth $7 today .. if they are not buying because till $7 maybe due to pullback they expect if hip fails
Can't think of any other reason
The Market is hitting All Time highs today....now would be the perfect time to do it if they have data ready. #Strike while Iron is Hot.
VKTX
So you know if vktx have access to blinded data as patients finish their 12 week follow up ?
Or no data avail to vktx till all patients finish up
ask ZeWaffleBarron, he might know.
VKTX
Anyone knows answer to this Q
Does vktx have access to blinded data as patients finish their 12 week follow up ?
Or no data avail to vktx till all patients finish up
Does vktx have access to blinded data as patients finish their 12 week follow up ?
Or no data avail to vktx till all patients finish up
I don't know how that works.
How do these blinded trials at 20 sites work?
Say site 1, completed 12 week follow up sep 15 ..
Does vktx have access to blinded data for that site? I.e. Plasma levels and BMI
I say there's a chance we'll get it AH today :)
No point speculating .. only a few days till we find if your gut feel is any good
Did the company say in the PR the exact day enrollment was completed ?....No they did not.
My Gut feeling ;}
What makes you think that?
They have completed enrollment in vk5211 long before they put out a PR saying they completed enrollment.
Raising my odds to 90% that they release P2 data on 10/9.
VKTX
Thanks .. I was confused on that
I know little but it seems to me that while study is blinded the plasma concentration of their drug is cumulative over time .. So it should be very easy to track who got what as study progresses
How many centers were they recruiting at ?
My point exactly. Would be a waste of that audience's time and an opportunity lost to be discussing old data. Not how I've seen other companies handle their KOL events. Anyway, if they in fact do it without the new data, I will have a low opinion of the management's competence.
Why would they hold KOL event prior to having the phase 2 data to release? What is gained by having pre-data?
They are the same thing, dxa is the test that being used that quantifies lean body mass.
Thanks .. CEO said primary is lean body mass .. clinical trial says DXA scan
Has primary changed ? Or are these two same ?
12 weeks from the last enrolled (July 12) is actually Oct 4. This is top line data, dxa scan at 12 weeks. Not the full trial results. The meeting is scheduled at a completely reasonable time interval to be compatible with results. Not saying it will happen, but the timing is lined up well. They originally said 2-4 weeks possible to clean up data. This would be one week to clean data (that they've had forever to refine as the trial has progressed). You seem to be spreading misinformation
They completed enrollment July 12 and there is a 12 wk dosing (oct 12) and 2 wk follow up (October 26) and 2 wks data analysis (readout mid nov)
KOL event was planned weeks in advance
So , seems to me highly unlikely readout by next Monday
Up in After Hour to 1.95 , Rocket launch coming.
My guess is we could get hip data tomorrow premarket to draw the audience for Monday (based on my experience with another KOL I've been through for another company). I'll probably be proven wrong haha.
Tuesday Morning 10/10 could get crazy. GLTA
VKTX
Lol Greens. Trying my best to relax, countin hours til monday, take care buddy and best of luck to all
Lookie at those Warrants flying up. :]
Nice results from VK0214 proof of concept study !!!!
Viking Therapeutics Announces Top-Line Results from Proof-of-Concept Study of VK0214 in In Vivo Model of X-Linked Adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD)
Treatment with VK0214 led to Significant Reductions in Plasma and Tissue Levels of Very Long Chain Fatty Acids (VLCFAs)
Tissue Effects Suggest Promising CNS Activity Following 25 Weeks of Exposure
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viking-therapeutics-announces-top-line-results-from-proof-of-concept-study-of-vk0214-in-in-vivo-model-of-x-linked-adrenoleukodystrophy-x-ald-300530670.html
Thks .. this is from earnings call .. so I was not the only one asking this Q
Yes, thanks, Yale. So we've never disclosed the exact powering in the study. What we said previously I believe was -- is at least 80% power at the 1 milligram dose and I think we may say at least 95% powered on the two milligram dose. I'd say we're right around 80% powered at the 1 milligram dose and we're over 95% powered at the two milligram dose. The initial powering numbers that we discussed on a prior call were based on 120 patients. We enrolled 108 patients I think with 108 we're still very well powered similarly powered as to what we had previously said on the prior earnings call.
The trial was slated to enroll more than that, and they chose to complete enrollment with the current number. This was a decent length trial, they should have had plenty of time for interim analyses of data. You feel that they mistakenly stopped early and will not have statistically significance, and that will be the error?! Lol! I've worried about many things in this space, but that ain't one of them. Do some DD before you throw your money somewhere. I doubt you are worrying here for free tho
Enrollment was only 108 in 4 groups .. getting SS from 27 in each group seems tough goal
Equally excited, VK5211 est. 300,000 patients per year in U.S and growing.. Market opp exceeds 1 billion annually, Potential benefits in other fractures besides just the Hip.
There are no other approved therapy's so VKTX would be the only player with a drug for this indication.
VKTX
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