Velocityshares Daily 2X Vix Medium Term (TVIZ)

[gldtimer]

SJB On Friggin Fire !!!

In one weeks time SJB has moved on the QB list from 7/8 to 3/8 !!!

Full analysis tomorrow, after Fri. close, but preliminaries put it right behind GLD and TBX.

As mentioned I'm completely handcuffed if gold does give up her crown and not give it to TBX just to be taken away by SJB.

Moving from 7th to 3rd in only a weeks time is remarkable...but then this has been a most remarkable week.

PSQ continues to work its hedging magic as UST are pushed up as a safe haven as the equity/junk bond markets get slammed.

[gldtimer]

TBX:SJB Hasn't Crossed my Pivot Point and Has a Ways to Go.

...however, it's headed in the right direction which is the reason I placed my PSQ hedge bet.

Up until now the market is replaying the 'tantrums' of 2013. If you remember BB wanted to cut back on QE and the market tanked. BB gave into the market and said 'let her rip', will Powell do the same or stick to his guns with 3+ rate increases. Who knows, but until the time comes I'm neutral on pos vol.

[Marc812]

Zoltar speaks: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=52170

[77steel]

You no longer track tvix. What don’t you like about it.

[gldtimer]

PSQ Worked as a Terrific Hedge Against Falling Interest Rates.

Monday caught me without a hedge against falling rates, but not today.

At 10:00 am HYG:JNK gave me the go ahead to initiate my full hedge position adding to yesterdays purchase trigger by PALL:PPLT.

An then the market tanked...almost like it was on clue waiting for my purchase.

A good windshield day, turning out positive even though all the early gains from UST shorts were eliminated.

[gldtimer]

New World of Backwardation.

Without VIX and it's near constant state of contango all that's left is VXX and the current state of backwardation.

XIV was the tail that wagged the dog...contango > XIV > lower volatility > higher stock prices.

...but now with VXX everything is reversed !!!

[gldtimer]

Today if TBX were Crowned I'd Still be in Cash

...Yep, SJB is also making a run for the crown, and rather then crown TBX just to take it away from her (shades of Steve Harvey) I'll hold cash until TBX either re asserts herself or SJB earns the title.

As it stands today toothless GLD is still queen, with the big question being who will replace her...TBX or SJB?

[gldtimer]

TBX Slowly Moving Its Way to Queendom...however

SJB now looks like she maybe a serious player.

GLD could still give way to the winter asset SJB rather than move to the spring asset TBX

Stay tuned.

[gldtimer]

Today's Action Does Not Bode Well for Stock Market Tomorrow.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=JNK%3ASJB&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&i=t90942235485&r=1518038002949

...huge reversal in JNK starting the day up .5% and ending the day down.

[gldtimer]

Bond Bulls Showing the First Sign of Fear.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EDV%3AZROZ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=t20436514432&r=1518037793112

...still some room to run, but not as much as yestereday.

[gldtimer]

First of Two PSQ Hedges Placed.

PALL:PPLT pivot cross me the first today.

I'm now hedged 1 PSQ : 8 UST short.

Once gold officially rolls over and my pair (HYG:JNK) signals 'lookout below' I'll repeat the 1:8 hedge. I'm projecting this sometime next week if the trend in prices holds.

In all honesty I don't want the market to go down, at least not dramatically.

On Monday the 1,200 point drop caused a one day run to UST which hurt, if only for a day.

If another plunge happens PSQ will soften the pain a bit.

In a perfect world the market actually goes to new highs proving to the Fed it can withstand a hold bunch of rate increases.

[gldtimer]

RIP Queen Gold

Short reign made that way by the price action of SLV;GLD

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t94634540292&r=1518026625218

When she took the throne on 1.16 SLV was heading south (forecasting lower inflation) against gold, and that was when the USD was falling !!!

Now that the USD has some legs it shouldn't be anytime at all before she's officially buried.

[gldtimer]

And it all Went Poof

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/xiv-trader-ive-lost-4-million-3-years-of-work-and-other-peoples-money-2018-02-06

So how difficult is it to come back from a 95% loss, as one commentator wrote?

Answer: Damn near impossible.

Let's say you're sitting at a poker table starting the game with $100 now down to $5.

Going all in an winning you're now up to $10. But to get to $10 you had to have a 100% return on your money. So how easy is it to earn 100% on your money with interest rates at 3%...damn near impossible.

Even if you do you're only at $10 so you need to double up again for $40 and double up again to $80 and your still $20 short. What took five minutes to lose, would take 100 years to make back at 3%

[gldtimer]

I'm Very Close to Doing a Kevin Smith

...and shorting the market

Stay tuned.

[gldtimer]

Stocks are Perpetual Bonds.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-want-a-fancy-story-for-why-stocks-skidded-and-then-climbed-its-actually-pretty-simple-2018-02-06

...think a 30 year bond is a long duration? Well that's a bat of the eyelash compared to perpetual bonds which happen to be called stocks.

[gldtimer]

Bond Bulls FINALLT Giving it Up!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EDV%3AZROZ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=t62034057545&r=1517951841981

Note the price of EDV (interest rates rising) hasn't been above ZROZ (interest rates falling) since Oct. 2017. Also note when they broke above in Nov. 2016 -- will history repeat itself (I hope).

[gldtimer]

TOO FUNNY...Poof and its gone--next.

[Marc812]

"And its gone"

[gldtimer]

Gone and good riddance...xiv/vxx

Held one share and never so glad to lose 95% in a single day.

Closed it out and after fee cleared $2.00 -- lol.

What bitcoin is to millinnels, xiv/vxx was to the grown ups.

[77steel]

We regretfully inform our net short sellers of (Vega) that due to an ‘acceleration’ event we are closing our doors for business.



https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/credit-suisse-terminates-xiv

[gldtimer]

Gold Holding Reduced to Zero.

...but GLD is still a Queen Bee along with PST.

GLD crossed a preliminary pivot with TBX. Meaning if the trend continues TBX will dethrone gold in a week or so.

Rather than have a downside risk to gold I'll hold cash and either move into TBX or back into GLD if the trend reverses. I'd be great to have both PST and TBX as queens since both are in the hot part of the spring cell jacking the temp up to a max +200.

Actually, I'm net short GLD in the sense I have about 1% riding a nice wave in DUST.

[gldtimer]

At Least Bitcoin is Keeping some of it's Value.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-violent-unwinding-volatility-spikes-kills-one-etn-1517931789

...Now that's a crash. One for the record books. Enron didn't even look this bad -- lol. Come to think of it, XIV didn't really crash, it just instantly dissolved... like dropping a sugar cube into a pot of boiling water.

[gldtimer]

VIX -96% !!!

https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/newsStory.jhtml?symbol=XIV&storyid=201802061021DOWJONESREALTIME003973

XIV holders closed out yesterday's market with a 10% loss, and then the machines took over and in the five minutes after the market closed wiped out another 86%.

This is the ying to the yang of all vol players both long and short being destroyed.

[gldtimer]

XIV Consumed by Vol 'Portfolio Insurance'.

In order to protect their XIV holdings trading bought TVIX like crazy which drove down XIV which caused them to buy even more TXIV....etc. the same mechanism that cause the 1987 market crash interplay between the NY cash market for stocks and the Chicago futures market.

Five minutes after the close the rush of orders had driven down XIV by over 80% and it was terminated since the floor wasn't zero but an infinite negative value. A fail safe if you will.

This leaves the long vols, but kills off the short vols. Be interesting to see if anything takes their place, but I doubt it.

Fortunately I was holding my XIV allocation in cash, waiting for a set up that will now never happen.

[gldtimer]

An LOL Day.

Recently stocks have been going down because interest rates are going up. So stocks REALLY went down today and low and behold interest rates fall.

All crazyness. Now that interest rates have come down a bit will the stock market go up 1,000 tomorrow?

[77steel]

No truer words... indeed. Dow drop 1500 at one point. It’s a new age.

[gldtimer]

Trend Line Pop in the 10 Year.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/stocks-finally-found-out-what-bonds-have-been-screaming-about-weeks

...two graphs say it all.

Old market axiom: "The stock market will do what the bond market lets it."

No truer words were ever spoken.

[gldtimer]

Great Graph Overlaying Histories Greatest Bubble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/roubini-says-bitcoin-is-the-biggest-bubble-in-human-history

Fall or goldilocks is the only environment bubbles can grow in, take it away and move to another season and the bubble implodes. By my measurements fall ended on Jan. 9th.

[gldtimer]

GDP Now Rather Optimistic, to Say the Least!

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1

...a blow the doors off number.

[gldtimer]

Watching the Cryptos Plunging Daily.

https://www.investing.com/currencies/xrp-usd

...the airplane was revolutionary as is blockchain. But you can't make money on a technology if you can't limit the supply. If every Tom, Dick and Harry can buy themselves a plane and hold themselves out as an airline no one can make any money.

Warren Buffett famously said that when the Wright brothers flew at Kiddy Hawk a capitalist should have been standing down at the end of the runway with a shotgun!

Did you know they have a pot-coin for potheads, and a porn-coin for voyeurs, plus 1,500 more and growing every day.

[gldtimer]

JUCIX 'Correction'

...From the movement in JUCIX over the past couple of days it appears BG is not short UST, but IS short the USD.

[gldtimer]

Rick Rieder...the True Bond King.

...heads up BSIIX, the best historic Alt. Credit Focus Fund.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4140588-greater-clarity-markets-demands-flexible-approach

In a nut shell he's projecting faster growth and higher inflation.

It will interesting to see who's going to be buying all the bonds to finance this stuff if the Fed is cutting its balance sheet !!!

[gldtimer]

Seasonal Reshuffle.

Spring solidifies its hold on first place.

Taking the two asset classes in each season (counting LQD twice for fall), on Feb.1 the numbers were:

Spring 5, Summer 7, Fall 9, and Winter 15.

...the new numbers, as of Feb. 2 with PST taking over the Queen Been from GLD.

Spring 4, Summer 8, Fall 10, and Winter 15.

A perfect 'best' score would be 3 or 1 + 2, the first and second asset falling in the same class.

A perfect 'worst' score would be 15 or 7 + 8, the current situation in winter with IEF and SJB.

It will be interesting it see if JNK can overtake GLD for the number two spot. The MACD for JNK turned positive on Friday, but has a long way to go to kick GLD off the number two spot.

Spring is a great season for stocks, JNK bonds, and neg vol (XIV). Once the stock market gets over the initial cold water plunge of higher rates it will find the water temp quite comfortable and refreshing.

[gldtimer]

A Simple Way to Know Whether to be Long/Short UST Long Bond

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/bondvigilante.pdf

Nominal GDP > interest rate = short

Nominal GDP < interest rate = long

...right now shorting the long bond is as good as it gets !!!

[gldtimer]

Sure, maybe in a year or two.

[gldtimer]

Kevin Sticking to His Guns.

https://www.crescat.net/crescat-capital-quarterly-investor-letter-q4-2017/

...Friday must have brought a big smile to his face. In poker terminology guys like Kevin are called 'heroes' no matter what you bet they'll call even if the odds say to fold. Can't shake these guys off a hand no matter what you do.

Me, I'm a 'villian', someone who loves to raise, and hates to call always playing the odds which means folding more than most. No way I could go to bed knowing I was 20+% down for the year!

[gldtimer]

FPNIX:AGG Outperformance YTD

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FPNIX%3AAGG

...and how did FPNIX achieve such sterling results?

Answer: They never came back from X-mas break.

FPNIX has been 100% in cash since the start of the year!

Chances are these guys haven't even bother coming to work since opening packages.

I've always thought of cash as an option to buy, and FPNIX is obviously waiting for lower prices.

Sometimes doing nothing is incredibly smart.

[gldtimer]

It's Growth Not Inflation That's Driving Interest Rates Higher.

https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3/6

...in fact look at SLV:GLD showing inflation in freewill going south.

Now this is the good kind of growth that stocks and junk bonds 'should enjoy' once they get over the shock of interest rates that go up and stay up. Greenspan says rates are rising due to inflation, the markets say otherwise.

PS: Sold off commodities on Friday and will wait in cash for a new set up. USD bottoming out and going up won't be good news.

[gldtimer]

Charts by Jeff G.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-02/jeff-gundlach-chart-death

'no way to win,' but he should have added...unless you go short.

[77steel]

Could we see a January -February redux of ‘16

[gldtimer]

So Far Away from Moving into VXX It's Not Even Funny.

....Up some +13% today VXX, it could tumble back in a single day so long as TBX:SJB remains elevated.

The last time VXX moved up in a meaningful way was late 2015, early 2016. That chart (TBX:SJB) looks nothing like it does today.

[gldtimer]

Rather Amazing that EDV:ZROZ is Below the 200

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EDV%3AZROZ&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=t29019038336&r=1517605798644

...nothing but good news for bond bears since there is zero sign of capitulation. Look back to the fall of 2016 for a mirror image of what the market is doing.

[gldtimer]

SLV Suffering an Epic Beatdown Against GLD.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=slv%3Agld

...This of course bode ill for GLD. Still for TBX to also claim the second half of the hive it will take time.

However, not being one to wait for the final nail to be driven into the coffin, I've clipped the golden bee's wings so severely I'm now short gold riding DUST.

[gldtimer]

Early Morning Trades on a Glorious Market Day.

Shortened up Position in FXY by 10k which will sit in cash waiting for the YCS:FXY pivot to cross.
Sold JCC waiting for next set up.

BoJ said in the early morning hours that they will continue to buy JT...forever, to keep yields low. Now if that isn't a sign to get out of the yen I don't know what is.

[gldtimer]

JUCIX Net Short the Bond Market.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jucix

Gross's performance mirrors the Hive in directional movement. An initial year beginning dive being long in bonds, but then a correction going up once he realizes the 'jig is up' and interest rates are rising going short.

Looks like he wants his Bond King crown back this year.

[gldtimer]

I-coins Crash as Interest Rates Rise.

...the reason to own a currency is to either buy something or invest in that particular countries interest rate. Since i-coins are not sovereign there is no reason to buy them for interest rate investing. Every day interest rates go up in the world the class of I-coins should go down. Also the number of 'new collector plates'...read new coins is growing exponentially by the day.

[gldtimer]

The Interesting Confusion of a Two Hive Market.

When LQD was the queen, the next queen by definition could not be GLD it's exact opposite. To get to GLD, LQD had to yield to JNK and then from JNK it was a hop-skip to GLD.

Now with PST as a queen, everything is in play. The next move could be to any season, even back to fall goldilocks. GLD could continue to move to PST, TIP, JNK, IEF, SJB. On the other hand PST could move to JNK, GLD, TIP, LQD. In sort everything is in play...everything.

[gldtimer]

Bond Bulls Haven't Even Begun to Capitulate

...which of course is wonderful news for TBF/PST.

When they do you'll see a spike in EDV:ZROZ.

In this bond blood bath day, you'd expect EDV to be +.60%, but only moved +.06%

Plenty of room to run in the short bonds.

[gldtimer]

All Hail the Newest Queen Bee... PST

Jan. 2nd was a 'bug' day; Feb.1st a 'windshield' day.

Yep, PST is now 1/2 Queen Bee, with the temp at +100 with 50% of the bees leaving the GLD hive for PST.

So why didn't they all fly over? The answer is PST is 2xTBX and gold is still performing well against TBX.
Doesn't look like they're even close to leaving. So for the time being the hive has two queens in two different colonies.

Massive downward movement in bond prices today driving up the yield and the price of PST/TBF.

:) a big smilely face kind of day !!!

[gldtimer]

Hand Keeps Improving with YCS

...The missing card for an all in position shorting UST is YCS (short yen).

The yen is a defensive currency that enjoys winter but hates spring.

Given we are moving into spring it only stands to reason the yen should begin weakening, which fortunately it is. A nice confirmation that spring is on the way...maybe by the close today !!!