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Sorry bro, wheels are in motion...class action coming... CS calling us stupid for not understanding what we are buying can't/won't stop this train...either put your makers back to work to reflect the 2x vix short-term futures contracts, or we'll see you in the court room.
very good read thanks. this is why i day/swing trade TVIX. timing just does no seem right to build a core position to date. If i do re enter today it would be a short postion at 17
Ollie, thank you for a voice of reason. Always reassuring.
Great post Ollie!!!
Lots of good posts and insight on this board but please, stop the nonsense. Read this:
http://www.optionmonster.com/news/article.php?page=why_many_traders_are_vexed_over_vix_66712.html
And relax. You didn't buy a lottery ticket. You bought a great play on fear. It's back and it's growing. Enjoy and think through your exit so you don't get too greedy or anxious. You may not see a 5x return, but a 50% to 100% return in any market over a short period is a grand slam.
BTW, TVIX opened w/ a 19.8% premium today (Closing NAV Monday was $13.60). As mentioned by others, that will mute any upside we see. But near-term VIX options are about to rise in price, which will help us. So far, it's been options over 30 days that have fetched the premiums, as folks knew vol was coming, they just didn't know when. Now that it's here we should see front-month puts go up in value (and contango decline). Fingers crossed.
I'm long 20k shares and looking forward to the next several days.
Happy trading.
IMO-This thing is piece of doo-doo! I hope to be proven wrong, the friggin market has finally tanked, finally broke its upward trend, finally this finally that and finally the TVIX did not do shi*! It was up 8% premarket, the friggin market is down over 200 points and the TVIX is only up now 5%!!!!!!! This is pure friggin BS! On other days the market is down only 50 points and this ran up 25%? REALLY?
IMO
be careful for the 230 to 4 pm buy back in the market..
TVIX as I've said should be up 3 to 4 bux today..
look for bargains in other plays
By the way, happy birthday to Mr. David Gilmour of Pink Floyd...sorry for ruining all your songs...
Thought TVIX would be higher today. Agree they did sell way to many shares for this to hit 100 pps with out some major global disruption JMO
Shall we start some class action lawsuit chatter?
This is why it will trade at a discount rather than a premium in these upcoming bearish months....way too many shares outstanding for their makers to move it. Bend over retail investors get ready to bite your pillows.
SCAM by Credit Suisse.....They diluted the hell out of this up around $100. The ETN is too diluted to perform as advertised, now they will/can no longer effectively move the share price with their makers.....They will reverse split this eventually only to repeat the cycle...SCAM! This is a white collar penny stock.
not me. I'm waiting for continue sell off toward the close, attempting to sell into a spike. I think the market will be flat tomorrow and I will buy back into volatility sometime tomorrow as I believe the markets are in for very volatile weeks/months ahead in particular Iran. I also believe the markets will continue to sell off as it seeks more stimulus as the United States will begin to disappoint.
No fear here! Just waiting for it to happen everywhere else.
Holding long!
GLTA!
Yes he is right if you want to play the Vix Buy Tvix for long
So who's holding overnight?
BISer!!!!! Type in TVIX-IV..it stands at 15.31..that's what TVIX SHOULD BE TRADING AT!!!! When CS stopped creating shares TVIX was no longer following VIX futures!!! Nobody was complaining about TVIX not dropping as much as it should but today when it's not up as much as say UVXY (which IS tracking ViX futures) people are calling for the head of TVIX and NOW it's a scam..LOL. If you purchased TVIX in the past few weeks you're still way ahead of the game.
Oh great, so now it takes a friggin nuclear war!
for the tvix to shoot to the moon you will need to see israel fire a missle, and from what i see on the net, many want it to happen.
prime example
http://action.aipac.org/welcome/Iranthreat1202/?gclid=COTnu4fS0q4CFYNM4Aodzg4Yiw
So, let me ask this about TVIX then. Based upon recent events with halt on new shares, what ver the hell that actually menat, the market finally doing what I believed it would for quite somne time finally today, being dwon as much as 175 points and the TVIX is now going lower! Its only up 5%, thats BS! So what do from here? It does not seem to make sense to me anymore? Almost like its scam some how? So for us longs here, why would we hold? Market wiull need to correct 1,000 points for this go to what IO thought of 50 plus based upon its previous run to 100. Anyone, thanks. Very frustrated
i,m out will take my gains from mondays purchase and reload latter
Biser, I lack sufficient knowledge to attempt an explanation. I think BigDummy39's (Post #2196) does a far better job than I could.
I understand that it's should have been way down in the past couple weeks but it wasn't because the share issue suspension. Hence the premium of actual value over implied value (value based on the value of underlying assets).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TVIX
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETVIX-IV
Check out the links above.
Today the premium shrank because TVIX.IV went up more than TVIX.
The premium was so high that on a good day like today, instead of all the gains being realized by TVIX price, some of the gains are going to reducing the premium.
According to history, the last time S&P was down more than 1% in a day was Dec 28, where the $VIX went up approx 7% and $TVIX went up around 8%. Today based on that track record, there's obviously no correlation between the two. Yes perhaps $TVIX has matured into its own playbook during the past couple of months particularly with the CS decision. But looking at the glass half full, perhaps it can spike up without the huge dependency on the $VIX's behaviour. (IMO)
However it does seem that the market is gravitating to a correction mode.
Unless it's changed the UVXY owners of record on March 7 will be subjected to a reverse split on March 8.
I wonder if this will drive some people away from UVXY and into TVIX?
CASH, you do realize that TVIX wasn't down nearly as much as it should have been right?? If it was track vix futures exactly TVIX would have been below 14..so it wasn't down as much and it's now not as up as much. I don't see where it is "eating" any premium...maybe just getting back closer to "normal"?
I'mnot suree what you or this means? Explain? At this frigggin rate the market will ned to correct like 1,000 points to move to levels it was before? And why has it moved before 25% in one day on a fraction of this drop today?
Yeah that's what I'm thinking. The premium got jacked up because of the share issuing suspension and is now eating about half our gains.
The TVIX.IV is up around 12% while TVIX is up around 6%.
Note that UVXY (whose shares were NOT suspended) is up 11.65% while UVXY.IV is up around 13%. There is almost no premium over the IV for UVXY.
I get why the premium is eating our gains. What I'd like to know is why the IV is up less than the VIX when it should be up 2x the VIX.
Detonate, it's VERY relevent!!! I don't know if BISer realizes that TVIX does NOT track the vix futures anymore and it trades in it's own world!!! Supply and Demand for TVIX is how it is trading..that's it.
If this Yahoo site is accurately portraying TVIX "real value" meaning no premium due to CS halt then current TVIX pricing may make sense.
I'm throwing this out for discussion as I'm not sure if this is a logical argument.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TVIX-IV
EXACTLY! WTF?
BISer, don't forget TVIX did not go nearly as low as it "should" have if CS didn't stop issuing shares. UVXY is performing well...UP 11%! I'm thinking that if the sell-off continues for more than today that TVIX will start moving better..JMHO...I don't think anyone knows for sure since TVIX is basically trading in a world all it's own since it's not tracking anything EXACTLY.
Yeah WTF. "Daily 2x VIX"
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EVIX
VIX up over 14%. Where's our 28% bump?
I realize it can't track perfectly, but you'd think it'd be a bit closer.
What does it take anymore for this thing to move? Market down 1.4% and TVIX only up 6%, what am I missing? Is thing rigged some how? What will it take? Anyone?
good luck to TVIX longs !
I'm taking it on the chin the last 2 days w/ AAPL- hoping for a rebound back to 547 by close tmrw..
130 shares at 525
Scroll down to the Day The Dollar Died. Interesting scenario---Scary, yet very possible!
http://inflation.us/videos.html
ok, I dont get it? Market down over 150 points and TVIX drops?
looks like it will open at 18, up 10% Go TVIX!
hope so? Maybe so? It is my hope that this is the begining of a big correction, I hope to see this thing get to 50 plus in time here, sooner the better. It might just very well snow ball from here. There is a ton of money moving out of the market, fear is setting in for many reasons, good for us
Nice to see the movement, that's for sure! Can we see $19-$20 or is that asking too much for today? GLTA!
LOL, how about it being a super Black Tuesday! GO TVIX! DAX down over 2%
Super Tuesday or Black Tuesday?....maybe both..
oh yes it is! GLTY!
It's on the move P/M. GLTA!
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders continue to sell shares of their companies at a well-above-average pace.
In fact, they are behaving even more bearishly than one month ago. And that’s really saying something, since — as I reported then — their pace of selling in early February was the highest since last July, right before the bottom dropped out of the market. ( Read my Feb. 9 column .)
/quotes/zigman/627449
DJIA 12,962.81, -14.76, -0.11%
13,50013,00012,50012,00012FM
So far, at least, the market has escaped the fate that beset it last August and September. But it hasn’t rallied very much either. Over the last month, for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.11% has only gained about a half of one percent.
Going forward, the market must now contend with insider behavior that is even more lopsided to the sell side. We have to go back nearly a year — to the weeks leading up to the late April 2011 stock market top — to find another period in which insiders were as bearish as they are now.
Consider a ratio of the number of shares that insiders have sold to the number that they have bought. In the week ending last Friday, according to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 6.56-to-1. A month ago, in contrast, it was 5.77-to-1.
As Vickers editor David Coleman writes: “We have not seen such a consistent number of sales reported by insiders since May 2011, with overall selling elevated for five consecutive weeks now. When this last happened, a correction came a callin’.”
Click to Play Why insiders are skeptical of rallyAre you buying this rally? Insiders aren't — many believe the rally will be short-lived. Photo: Associated Press.
Another way of putting recent insider behavior in context is to compare it to the sell-to-buy ratio in the weeks leading up to the market bottom early last October. In a couple of those weeks, that ratio dropped well below one. The Dow is some 25% higher today than then.
I concluded my month-ago column about insiders by writing that the next big move in the market is more likely to be down than up. The insider data support this conclusion even more strongly today than then.
To be sure, the insiders aren’t always right about the market’s near-term direction. They were far too bullish at the top of the bull market in 2007, for example. But more often than not they turn out to be right, which makes sense given their access to inside information and insight.
Bulls, take note.
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