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Futures way off this morning, it is beging, it is happening go TVIX go!
Not tracking VIX, but tracking VIX FUTURES.*
I followed this link given by Vance3h:
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/understanding-etfetn-decay/597736
It would be nice if checklist34 could use a spell-checker before publishing. There must have been at least 34 spelling errors, that a spell check program would have easily corrected.*
I will offer a few quotations from the article, after correcting the spelling problems.*
"These things do not track the underlying, they track the FUTURES of the underlying."*
"VXX does not track the VIX. It tracks the price of 30 day duration VIX futures."*
"This is why the VXX doesn't go up 5% on a day that the VIX goes up 5%. Heck, it may one day go DOWN on a day when the VIX is up 5%. It may well go UP on a day when the VIX is down. It's NOT TRACKING THE VIX, IT'S TRACKING VIX FUTURES."*
Compared to the decay of contango, he says:
"Backwardation has the opposite effect, it would INCREASE the amount of contracts that our little ETF had, causing anti-decay."*
"A real example:"*
"After Lehman, volatility sky-rocketed, and VIX futures sky-rocketed with it. But the market didn't anticipate that the VIX would stay at insane levels like 80 for 2 months. So in, say, October 08 the November 08 futures didn't rise nearly as much as the October futures rose. VIX futures went into backwardation. VXX, had it existed, would have anti-decayed at an amazing rate. At one point the amount of backwardation was close to 50%/month, meaning on that day you would have bought 1.5 times as many new contracts as you sold, causing extreme anti-decay. This extreme backwardation contributed to the meteoric rise that VXX and TVIX would have seen, had they existed in that time."*
This article is from May 2011, so the numbers will be a little outdated. But anything that happened before that time gives us a good history lesson.*
Many of our exchange-traded products did not exist during the crash of 2008. But he makes the point that the effect of anti-decay would have caused an unbelievable jump in "bear share" prices. According to this way of thinking, we don't have to worry about decay as much as we might have thought. If it's time for the "bear share" prices to go up, the decay effect can't hold them down.*
The TVIX ETN or NOTE from Credit Suisse, as I understand it, is not actually buying and selling the futures contracts, but making other types of investments with the money they have, and then adjusting the share price to match what it should have been. It would be like keeping somebody's cash instead of placing the bet they wanted. If the bet comes through, you have to cover it, but if the bet loses, you get to keep the money. Is that about right?*
I originally found this investorshub forum while looking for contango.*
I found TVIX while looking for volatile stocks. I found a list of stocks, and TVIX was on the list. Then after I bought some, I started looking for information about it, which led me to articles about "contango." When I searched Google for the words - - TVIX contango - - this investorshub forum popped up as one of the search results.*
One thing I like about TVIX is that it has such an interesting forum, with so many knowledgeable and successful traders commenting on it. The share price is affected by market conditions generally, so the discussion is not limited to a particular company or industry. All things related to the economy or the markets generally have an influence on TVIX, and similar products. So I figure that this is the best way to learn about the stock market. And the only way I could stay interested is to actually own the shares, so I will plan on holding or trading TVIX for a while.*
I previously bought a stock, which went down after I bought it. I waited for what seemed like a long time, until it went back up again. I sold with a limit order, at a small profit. Then after I sold, it just kept going up and up. That is why I want to divide my shares into different "blocks," so I can "keep my stock, and sell it too."*
I don't know about a new car, but I could use a new driveway. The problem is that when I see a yellow light, I don't know whether to stop there, or just keep on going.*
As per instruction from the Plunge Protection Team (PPT). NO RED Days allowed in the market this year :0(
WTF. It seems like any TVIX gains are erased in the last hour of trading.
Here is an interesting presentation/perspective, albeit quite lengthy. GLTA!
http://goldsilver.com/video/debt-collapse-20-000-gold-mike-maloney/
Hi Tvix-er's
IMO this should be up a buck today.. I've been staying away, I'll hit it for 1 K shares if we retrace back in the 15's
Here's your chance to buy AAPL on the pullback/profit taking or look at NVDA
Good Luck !
LOL, same to you, thanks
GLTU! I've already got da' house---Just need another toy for the driveway! TVIX
GLTA!
The VIX not TVIX!
looks to be up only 2+% on the day. i entered at 16.38 and looking to exit at 16.70, should have sold at 16.60. we will see.
=
but the VIX is up 7%
Tough trade today, just goes to show if the markets are down, does not mean TVIX will rise
no desire for the Porsche but a new house for me! I too dont mind waiting ; )
Weird, I thought this would be rocking today
C'mon!! this should be up 10%, if I wanted this 1% crap I'd buy msft.
Thanks Rocco & Vance, these links help tremendously.
C'mon TVIX-----DADX4 wants a new Porsche! I have no problem waiting!
GLTA!
Going long TZA
Russel 2000 down 3% for last week. I started a position in TZA and added to my position in TVIX. I'm probably going to sell these position probably before the jobs report on Friday and after the jobs report probably start a new positions in TZA and TVIX and then I'm going to sit and wait. Downside is minimum.
DOGMA
You can start here for a good overview: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/understanding-etfetn-decay/597736
for more info checkout my blog http://sixfigureinvesting.com/blog or Bill Luby at http://www.vixandmore.blogspot.com/
-- Vance
I am reminded of the old song by the band Chicago: "Does anybody really know what time it is?"*
Presumably, those who know the most are also the ones who are making the most money. Some traders are in-and-out day traders, while others believe in buying and holding for some period of time. They argue with each other about how it really works, and how best to play it.*
The only problem with day trading is the need for a 25 thousand dollar minimum in your account, and of course the money it takes to be left with a profit on small price differences, after paying the fees. Those who are just day trading don't really care all that much about the long term, so it doesn't affect them.*
Presumably, it is possible for both buyers and sellers to come out with a profit, if they are holding for different periods of time.*
Bill Luby always says NOT to hold TVIX. The new moderator-assistant, BISer, has pinned a story link at the top to an article by Jeff White, who is of the opposite opinion.*
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72774810
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/best-hedge-now-volatility-2012-03-02?siteid=yhoof2
Those who favor holding TVIX say, like Jeff White, "Rather than shorting what has been a very strong market, a better approach may be to simply get long volatility." Those who believe a sudden drop is imminent, and who have a margin account, can borrow shares to "sell short." By buying "long volatility," one advantage is that you don't risk a short squeeze. You can just sit back and hold your shares, and if everything else suddenly drops, your volatility shares are supposed to go up.*
rocco2 actually made money by shorting TVIX. In late January, he called his broker and borrowed shares to sell at over 18 dollars, and then covered the short for $16.50;
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=71604739
rocco2 has also provided a link to the nasdaq after-hours price information, which I had never seen before:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72019254
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tvix/after-hours
Those of us who are still just learning about it have to learn the basics. But everyone follows these newly written articles, and has to keep up with the latest news. The details are explained in bits and pieces, by reading several different articles over a period of time.*
Regarding the claim that a certain percentage of investors don't really know what they're doing, I'd say that nobody knows everything, and everybody makes mistakes. We might say that 100 percent of those buying TVIX don't know 100 percent of what they need to know, in the sense that they don't always get it right.*
I would also like to be in the upper 10%, or the top 1%, but I won't think I'm there until my account balance puts me there.*
Regarding the article by Bill Luby, which rocco2 linked to here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/401601-etracs-volatility-etps
It was interesting to read the comments underneath:
TG1980 "How can you call TVIX an overnight sensation??? Man, you really want this ETN to go to zero. Keep up the good work publishing stuff daily to protect your short position." 29 Feb, 03:51
jrn0074 "Yay another VIX product. (tepid applause) Can't wait for the 3x ETF based on the inverse ETN based on the obverse 2X ETF based on the options contract based on the futures contract based on the index based on options volatility." 29 Feb, 05:00
And so it goes.*
start here, sighn up for seeking alpha and read threw all articles relating to TVIX
http://seekingalpha.com/user/1064541/comments/symbol/tvix
Bill Luby is a good guy to read
http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/tvix?source=search_general&s=tvix
Contango & Roll Yield, I am an amateur and need help understanding these concepts, can someone please explain them to me, or post a link (Having Difficulty finding one) that explains them and how they relate to TVIX. Thanks. Aparently 90% of people who trade TVIX don't fully understand what they are trading. I would like to be in the upper 10% eschelon with the help of my fellow IHub friends.
Thanks,
Come on Market Correction, I am rooting for you.
Thanks! GLTY as well!
Ya think?! GLTY
I could deal with that!
50-100 plus, go TVIX!
Any thoughts on pps when the correction comes?
Dow cant surpass 13k and nasdaq cant surpass 3k once this house of cards market begins it will happen hard and fast just the way i like ...doubled my investment on this in the summer and bought back a few wks back... Retail investors will get hurt once again the smart money has started to short for wks...gooo tvix
Anyone? Why would NASDAQ be down .41% and SQQQ be down .487%, TYP down .795%, SPXU is my only true bear that is up .405%.
Thought these instruments would be a little more straight forward!!
I not even going to try to understand UVXY...getting close to being stopped out at 5.15
Still holding TVIX at 14.05 from 2/7
GLTY as well, it is coming
Me too! I have many others to play with on a daily basis if I choose to daytrade.
GLTU/A!
Good read, thanks for the post
I am holding more long term until the big correctuion comes, that is why I am here not to day trade.
Interesting read here too....
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2012/03/02/volatility-etns-broke-market/
Added much more for the longer term! GLTA!
Friday is going to be all about the VIX
Hold atleast till Monday over the week end Oil might Shoot up to $ 125
Yes, thanks for posting.
Now if I could find a reason to be holding onto 5K shares of UVXY I'd be happy. Just about stopped out today @ 5.15.
Great article from Marketwatch, thanks for posting
I just keep asking myself "wait at least 3 months for a 100%+ return"....been holding at 16.80 since last month. The real fun will be when this thing takes off - it will start looking like geological seismic waves of an earthquake.
This market is soooo tired but its not correcting ..this is sooo frustrating jeeeze
IMO, it is begining, prediction would be soon meaning the next few weeks to months at worst. Oil is sharply higher again today on some news out of Saudi Arabia explosion? I think it is just a matter of time on TVIX, thats what I think and I keep hearing it over and over again like just right now on CNBC, hang in there. I am hoping for 50-100 on TVIX with a major correction
But WHEN is the question. And how high will S&P go before it happens.
I keep hearing the "C" word over and over again these days, its coming. CORRECTION!I think at least a couple hundred points and then if it goes further it will be like a rock because people will have no choice but to lock in all these profits, watch.
If they didn't stop issuing shares and there was no premium you would have had below 14 :0)
i might get my 15 reentry
Time to restock TVIX (16.31) UVXY ( 5.31)..both at days low or very close.
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