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OT. While waiting on Silicone Stock, you might be interest to here about this Gold Stock........lolololol
I know you no like but...... a fortune can be found under a stone??? .........
Happy week end
janet
News... from CNEX Board:
Oct 22, 2010 15:00 ETCannon Exploration Announces CEO Interview With Stockgoodies.com
PHOENIX, AZ--(Marketwire - October 22, 2010) - Cannon Exploration Inc. (PINKSHEETS: CNEX) announced today that CEO Edwin Solano will be the featured guest interview on the fastest growing Stock Trading community, StockGoodies.com Radio. The interview will be held on Thursday, October 28th, 2010 at 8:00 p.m. EST.
The interview can be heard at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/stockgoodies. The archived version can be found on the homepage of www.StockGoodies.com.
ABOUT STOCK GOODIES:
StockGoodies, ranked 3rd highest stock related website on Tim Sykes, http://investimonials.com is a highly respected, leading publisher of news, perspective, and stock market education on all forms of trading, covering: pennies, micro-cap, small, mid and large cap equities, foreign exchange and options. StockGoodies mission is to educate & empower self-directed investors, with the vision of building a powerhouse of talented traders, helping each other, narrowing the gap between individual and institutional traders. StockGoodies Radio interview contact: Cheri Kennedy, 407-397-3318
About Cannon:
Cannon Exploration is positioning itself to emerge as a quality mineral resource Exploration Company in the North American mining industry, focusing primarily on properties located in preferred mining districts in Canada. Cannon Exploration, Inc. (CNEX) Stock Trading Info:
lol...;o)......mighta missed the boat on that one also...;o)
OT...........wonder if there any good silicone stocks out there.....
jamt i was saying that becasue one of the hosts asked her if they were real and she said no but they were real heavy...lol...so thats why i was surprised...;o)
I'm still around and still have a few shares.
Ron.
I think they are real as you say in an unreal way .....
her husband must behave ?????......lolololol
well you knew i would have something to say......;)..and i must say i was surprised she said they were not "real"....i personally thought they look very "real"...In an unreal way.....
dont u think??...
OT...........hoper hasn't posted here for 5 months.... and that was the post that brought him back!....
Good morning Hoper, she has a merit to go public but it is a talent I rather no have.......lolololol
All the best to you!
janet
That's talent!!!
Ron.
OT..... ouch is right!.... makes me glad I'm single right now, and reminds me that I want to order a trash compactor.... Thanks for keeping me abreast of things....
OT. OUCH.....Look at this:
http://biertijd.com/mediaplayer/?itemid=23092
OT. Good morning Surfin, lolol.....yes I did but it is no problem
The real problem is the way these groupe works......making one being concern wich stock is "safe" to get into ?????......
Wishing a good day,
janet
OT..........janet, wow, you got some pretty rough treatment over there on the sos board.... that poster should be tossed for sure...
I knew you would reply to this one???? Lololol.......
Wishing a pleasent weekend
janet
lol....alot of unlikely relationships have "blossomed" in arkansas.......so i've heard...;o)
from another Board:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55609060
Stock market has become such a racket that I don't think another crush will make much of a difference ?????..........
Was reading on Stock House a post on SSS Board, could not resist from telling my thinking......
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=28714959&l=0&r=0&s=SSS&t=LIST
Sweet Dreams,
janet
OT............. janet, interesting article about the "hindenburg omen", a tech stock market signal that has been pretty accurate in predicting large stock market drops- developed by a blind mathematician, Jim Miekka.... the signal has tripped 3 times this year so far....(who knows?)....interesting anyway....
http://www.munknee.com/2010/09/dreaded-hindenburg-omen-indicator-suggests-77-likelihood-of-imminent-major-market-decline/
Yes I did buy some, you should know me better by now, lololol
Ot.......regarding AAVG..... I like their business plan.... I want to look more into it... Did you buy some?
wow janet, you made My day on that one!! maybe if we move to Arkansas, I think brothers and sisters get married there!....
OT. Surfin I would like to ask you please what you think about AAVG ???
TIA
janet
Surfin you made my day!!! - If I was not your Yonger sister I would like to ask you to marry me!
Seriously now, I am tired to see all my stocks (except BNT) going down and more down........Maybe I should start playing lottery at least I know the odds ......
Ot.............janet........ absoultely! Good Intentions!..... My intention here has been to make money......although taking longer than expected, obviously, I think ALDA will still come through.... Small family?... yes!... I think of you, for example, as the much younger sister I never had...(please be home by midnight)...
lololol.....smiling, of course, I should have mention this fact and YES I AGREE!- Surfin, can we say that on this Board we are like a small nice family with best intentions????
OT............I agree with you, except that I don't think me or Mak should share much of the blame....maybe a little, though... This board, I think is at least 99.8% honest....
Good morning SurfinNj, what really is sad is the fact that man developed with time an advance technologie but has not been able to put in place "the means" to provide a better living conditions for all the living peoples on this earth!!!- Unfortunately today we do not know who to trust, there is so little honesty in every sectors as well as among peoples and of course the Governement as the result!!!- Actually we are all to blame!!!
Have a good day,
Take care,
janet
OT............janet.... interesting you brought up the issue of trust in the market.... Right now I don't trust the market(in general, not necessarily specific stocks)....every technical indicatior points toward the market pulling back, or actually crashing; while, at the same time, we get bad economic news almost daily.... yet the dow has recently run back up over 11000....some think that the fed may be propping it up, by purchasing futures.....That could just be a conspiracy theory, but it sure does seem strange......If true, though, we may see a huge pullback after the Nov midterm elections......jmo
I think that some peoples care enough to keep this Board "active" while waithing for some "knock-out news" from Alda, therefore what you post is appreciate...... Then, wheather one buy or not is upon how much trust the reading person still has in the stock market ?????......
Thankyou
all the best,
janet
OT............although I would not personally recommend gold mining stocks right now(but who the hell cares what I think anyway?)..... this article from The Motley Fool has a few recommendations:
Don't Miss the World's Greatest Bull Market
By Christopher Barker | More Articles
October 12, 2010 | Comments (7)
Wait! Don’t buy yet…Successful investing starts with a smart watchlist.
Jump into the Fool’s FREE new service today.
•Click Here Now
If you're willing to let Nouriel Roubini think you're "deluding" yourself, or have Charlie Munger call you a "jerk," there remains a precious path to investment gains that might just have your name on it.
In case you haven't noticed, this massive, decadelong bull market in gold and silver continues to march onward -- to the complete befuddlement of long-standing bubble-callers the world over.
One choice is to steer clear of the sector altogether, just as naysayers have advised at every step along the way. However, if gold easily surpasses $2,000 (and silver notches $50) over the next few years, then you will have missed out on an incredibly historic bull market in the miners and related equities.
The sour taste of victory
As an advocate for gold exposure during an era when the mere mention of the metal still draws dismissive ridicule, I have faced an uphill battle getting my outlook and perspective to reach those that I believe need it most. Undeterred, my unpopular macroeconomic outlook and predictions for precious metals has garnered a gradually expanding audience.
You might think I'd be dancing a celebratory jig now that $1,345 gold has vindicated my bullish commentary from the past several years, but nothing could be further from the truth. Gold's rise is for me a somber affair, marking as it does the grossly irresponsible stewardship of our free-floating paper currency.
No one wins when a delevering financial system -- perched as it still is atop a broken foundation of irreparably toxic derivatives -- triggers widespread impoverishment via the competitive debasement of currencies.
I believe we are witness to a tragic chapter of American history. Under the circumstances, dancing about because my investments have risen hardly seems appropriate.
My cards are on the table
While many onlookers have been stymied by each successive wave of rising precious metal prices, not everyone has been wrong about gold and silver.
I advocate a simple, long-term, buy-and-hold approach to precious metals exposure, and I recognize the inherent uncertainty in telegraphing near-term movements. But for investors who sought favorable entry points, I hope that these past assessments have proven valuable.
My relevant stock picks from as early as 2006 -- including 2007 noteworthy performers Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) and Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO) -- are still active in my primary Motley Fool CAPS portfolio for all to see. 89% of the stock picks in my subsequent silver miner portfolio have outperformed the S&P 500. So I'm not accused of cherry-picking; all of my calls, good and bad, can be seen on those pages.
Although, stock picking can be relatively easy within a bullish trend of this magnitude, one runaway success -- the 950% appreciation of Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) since I issued my value-oriented appeal at $2.51 per share -- has reportedly helped some of my readers to outsized gains within the sector.
In September 2009, after calling for a monster breakout to fresh all-time highs, gold surged 28% over the ensuing three months to reach $1,220 by early December. With gold above $1,200 per ounce, I expressed caution with respect to a potential correction. Over the next two months, gold dipped to beneath $1,060 per ounce. In August of this year, with gold hovering near $1,230, my position was that we were on the verge of a parabolic surge in gold. Here beneath $1,350 per ounce, the move doesn't count as parabolic -- yet.
Last call for the gold and silver rocket
There is a chorus of precious metal investors and commentators who have been on the correct side of this bull market to date, including names like Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, Eric Sprott, James Turk, Peter Schiff, John Paulson, and others. What do they all have in common? They each remain resolutely bullish regarding further remaining upside for precious metals.
To be sure, getting involved at this stage of the bull market will be scary, as volatility will be a constant. Absent confidence in the broader trend, gold and silver may still not be for you.
Feel free to go on swallowing all the bubblicious talk about gold being an overcrowded fear trade for a useless, barbarous relic that has no fundamental strength to its outlook. But before deciding not to dabble in straightforward value plays like Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) or Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS) on the basis of such perspectives, ask whether the weight of prior inaccuracy and persistent befuddlement hangs heavily upon the necks of the precious metal naysayers.
Take the Motley Poll
In the stands: I prefer to watch them rise in befuddled fascination.
On the sidelines: I am finally considering dipping a toe in the water.
On the field: I am satisfied with my modest allocation to gold and/or silver.
Center-field: I am heavily allocated, and unshakably certain of my target prices.
Where do you stand on gold and
OT. "GOLD FEVER" - from Another Board:
Article from another board---SFMI---- post I saw tonite:
*****************************************************************
sprattnikie Share Tuesday, October 12, 2010 8:30:10 PM
Re: takeittothebank post# 22418 Post # of 22421
Are you prepared? Gold stocks ready to rumble.
"Gold Stocks vs Bullion: Battle Time!" ...excerpts...
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_101210.html
Stewart Thomson Oct 12, 2010
“…now the big money is in gold stocks…. You are missing out on gold, yes. Missing out because you are focusing on bullion instead of gold stocks with your buy orders. The reward to risk ratio is orders of magnitude higher on gold stock now than it is for bullion… If you “have” to chase price, do it with the item that has yet to move. Do it with the item that stands to go to Pluto. That item is: Gold Stocks. There is a plethora of underpriced gold stocks sitting on the table…
Let’s look at the Gold Stocks, because that is where your gold market buy money should be going, and going there now. Why? Because the price of bullion is now at a price that is going to send gold stocks to Pluto, that’s why. Here’s the bottom line: Trading gold bullion from $1350 to $1500 in a price chase is an 11% move for the peanut parade. Many gold stocks could double, just on that move. I’m here to play large, not to play tiddlywinks. It’s been a sweet ride on the gold bullion Clydesdale work horse.
Now it’s time for the Gold Stocks Indy 500 race car to take centre stage. Here’s the actions you need to take to get prepared right now. Click here now: GDX Daily Chart. Look carefully at the blue uptrend line I’ve drawn on this chart. Price volatility has been microscopic. So far, the GDX has acted like the gold bullion Clydesdale. That’s about to change. Money has been made using my pyramid generator to buy and sell within the ATR (ave true range) of the GDX, as it has risen and fallen across that blue up trend line, which is a rough line of the mean average of the gold price. The power for the current GDX rise on the daily chart, technically, comes from the consolidation pattern established between May and August, between approx. GDX $45 and GDX $54.
Don’t forget that price did not actually break out upside from that consolidation until mid September, as it rose to the $55 area. Price has only risen to $58, while the target is at least $63, just from that tiny consolidation on the daily chart. Look at the RSI. It is not overbought. It is at 60, and has yet to even approach a severely overbought condition….
From both a risk and a reward perspective (except for the risk of going off the board; on that front bullion is the hands down winner) gold stocks are overwhelmingly the better play, right here, right now, and that’s just looking at the peanut plays that are projected on the daily charts.
Want to play in the real big leagues? If you want to book a financial ride to Pluto, then you need to take a hard look at the weekly chart for the GDX. Here it is! GDX Weekly Chart..... gold stocks are not overbought on either the daily or weekly charts. Gold stocks, as a group, are screaming buys… The minimum target for GDX, basis the super monster head and shoulders bull continuation pattern on the weekly chart, is GDX 100. That’s the minimum target, not the maximum target. Numbers like 200 for GDX and 300 on the GDXJ are not outside the realm of rational possibility, and the question is:
Are You Prepared?
OT. Interesting - but it is going on for few years:
HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING:
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/10/11/high-frequency-trading-what-you-missed-on-60-minutes/
60 Minutes: HAL9000
Mark , TraderMark
Published 10/12/2010 - 8:30 a.m. EST Rate This Article:
0
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mark
Website:
http://www.fundmymutual...
Email:
Email
Not a ton of new ground in this 60 Minutes piece if you have been following the HFT trend the past few years, but probably a good overview for the typical 60 Minutes viewer who is not exposed to the financial markets day in and day out. Joe Saluzzi [Jun 18, 2009: Joe Saluzzi Comments on HAL9000] gets a lot of face time here. What was amazing is not one soul in the HFT community (ok, they found one) would grant an interview, even the exchanges like BATS or DirectEdge. Once again the oft used excuse of "we provide liquidity" is why we should be happy our orders are front run - of course they provide liquidity, except when liquidity is really needed i.e. May 6th.
It may surprise you to learn that most of the stock trades in the U.S. are no longer being made by human beings, but by robot computers capable of buying and selling thousands of different securities in the time it takes you to blink an eye.
These supercomputers - which actually decide which stocks to buy and sell - are operating on highly secret instructions programmed into them by math wizards who may or may not know anything about the value of the companies that are being traded.
It's known as "high frequency trading," a phenomenon that's swept over much of Wall Street in the past few years and played a supporting role in the mini market crash last spring that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge 600 points in 15 minutes.
Most people outside of the industry know very little, if anything, about it. But the Securities and Exchange Commission and members of Congress have begun asking some tough questions about its usefulness, potential dangers, and suspicions that some people may be using computers to manipulate the market.
Legal Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure:
The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions. This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.
dont remember. that was 10 years ago. didnt see the ship. nice town too off the beach
yeah.... they make you give a "donation".... did u see what's left of the concrete ship?
that light house was cool. we went in it
Good spot on the oceanfront....... I stay at the point, by the lighthouse....
.52 X .53 cape may we used to stay at the grand hotel there
I spend alot of time in Cape May...... What does the pre-market on generex look like?..... no announcement yet....em
aahhhh, down the shore
gloucester county........em
warren county ?
Wash twp, south..........em
that's what they need to do to keep their listing.
where ya from in jersey. I'm in Morris co.
ot...(gnbt).....sweet.... I think it will get to $1.00 without the reverse split.....should be a $5 stock....imo
hit .56 after hours
big announcement coming pre market Monday
gnbt(Generex) may be ready to make a move...closed at .43 on Friday....em
In and out within 3-12 months is the plan. - very good source. - Paul
Good morning woodstock, well being in "SXL" - Slam Exploration -at 0,06 you certainly are doing great, the stock close at 0,26 !!!- I am taking a chance now and as I usually do I did not buy much to start with, if there will be a pull back I'll buy some more. Happy for you doing so well
Have a great time on your week end
All the best,
janet
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INVESTMENT SUMMARY
- Received a Drug Establishment License ("DEL") and approvals from Health Canada for 30 of its 49 prescription generics products; already has manufacturing approved, labeling and packing secured, and is establishing a sales force 1Q15 salesforc
- Simple business model: Vanc sources drugs that have already obtained FDA equivalent approvals through affiliated companies in China and India, in exchange for manufacturing rights when the drugs are approved by Health Canada
- Potential to scale quickly, comparable to another Canadian company, Paladin Labs, that got bought out for $1.6 billion in 2013 by Endo Health (NASDAQ:ENDP)
- CEO, Arun Nayyar has an extensive track record in the industry - specifically generics - having held executive positions with pharma companies in Latin America, Asia, and Canada and played an instrumental role opening up new markets abroad
- Pre-revenue, albeit with all of the components in place to immediately impact the generics market in Western Canada, and unlock shareholder value through a number of visible, value-unlocking events throughout 2015
Between 2010 and August 2013, brand-name drugs with sales totaling $6 billion a year in Canada lost their patent protection - opening the door to far cheaper generic copies, according to the IMS Brogan market-research company.
Compounding the so-called "patent cliff," a growing list of insurance companies that manage private, workplace drug plans have recently made substituting generics for brands a mandatory policy - a step that most government plans took years ago. The result: more then two thirds of prescriptions in Canada are now filled with generics, while some brand manufacturers lack new drugs in the pipeline to take up the slack.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Vanc Pharmaceuticals Inc. ("Vancpharma") (OTCQB: NUVPF) is a Canadian company (TSX-V: NPH) focused on providing Canadian health care professionals and consumers with high quality, affordable generics and over-the-counter ("OTC") healthcare products. They are the first Canadian generics company in Western Canada.
GENERICS PORTFOLIO
The company's currently approved in-licensed generics portfolio consists of 30 molecules, comprising of 67 dosage forms across various therapeutic categories: including both chronic (long-term) therapy and acute (short-term) therapy. Management estimates that the aggregate annual Canadian sales of its 30 approved products represents "a $1-billion market opportunity". Furthermore, the company plans to launch "with additional products and we will provide further updates in the coming months," said Arun.
The generics division of the company was only launched last Spring, since then the new management team has reached a number of significant milestones including:
On April 15th, 2014 Vancpharma announced that it had signed Cross Referencing Agreements ("CRA") "for prescription generic products for Canadian markets. These agreements are with three large pharmaceutical companies and cover 48 prescription generic products. The suppliers will handle manufacturing, and Vancpharma will market and sell these new product lines under its own label.
On November 18th, 2014 the company received approval via a Notice of Compliance ("NOC") from Health Canada for 22 generic molecules, comprising 51 dosage forms.
On December 10th, 2014 the company announced that it had been issued a drug establishment licence ("DEL") (licence No. 102220-A) by Health Canada. "The issuance of a drug establishment licence, along with the approval of our partner's GMP manufacturing site, is a key step towards the commercialization of our generic drug portfolio," said Arun Nayyar, CEO. The licence allows Vancpharma to import pharmaceutical products and distribute them within Canada.
This news was particularly important for the company and shareholders because: it positioned Vancpharma to become one of the only 40 companies in Canada that are licensed to manufacture current and future drugs at its GMP facility; allows Vancpharma to import from other manufacturers across the world and faces less barriers to entry; allows for importing both generic and non-generic drugs thus allowing the company to compete with other companies in branded drugs as well as their core generics business; and adds major clout when negotiating for exclusivity rights across Canada. Previously, manufacturers wouldn't commit their exclusively to Vancpharma as they were unsure if it could make good on importing and selling their products.
On December 15th, 2014 the company received an NOC from Health Canada for 7 additional generic molecules, comprising 15 dosage forms.
Lastly, on January 14th, 2015 Vancpharma placed inventory purchase orders for 30 generic molecules and expects to deliver these products 2Q 2015. "We are excited to take this important step towards commercialization and look forward to launching sales in Q2 2015. These 30 molecules represent best-selling generics in the Canadian market and our aim to provide Canadians with quality and cost-effective products is well served by them," said Arun. "Our initial marketing and outreach activities with select pharmacy customers in Western Canada have been positive and we look forward to working with our partners."
Figure 1: Generics Portfolio
Source: Press Release/Company Website
*Note: I'm aware that's only 29, however the 30th hasn't been updated on the website although it's been mentioned as approved (new approvals could come at any time)
Here are the next steps with the generics portfolio:
Figure 2: Generics Through Global Partnership
For those wondering what Vancpharma's margins are, the company has not made that public yet. As you can imagine, they don't want to expose their margins for specific drugs too early. Investors will be able to see them in the financial statements at a later date. However, generics are quite lucrative. Vancpharma will be taking on the risk of inventory, licensing, approvals, sales and marketing, whereas the manufacturer takes and fills an order from Vancpharma as necessary and collects payment. Accordingly, the reward follows the risk and in this case, Vancpharma would pay a fixed price to the manufacturer depending on the size of the manufacturing run. If you look at the financials of another generics company, Biosyent (TSX-V: RX) you will see margins typically ~70%-75%.
The margins generated from strategic cross-reference partnerships, while very enticing, pale in comparison to the financial opportunities presented by exclusive or co-development partnerships which management has indicated they want to pursue in the future.
OTC PRODUCTS
The OTC Products Division is focused on the marketing and sales of novel and proprietary healthcare products and consists of four (4) such products, all of which now have a Natural Product Number.
Figure 3: Vancpharma Pharmaceuticals OTC Products
It can't and won't be the cash cow for Vancpharma like its generics portfolio - the Canadian market for these OTC products is only ~$60-70 million - but it should actually start generating revenue sooner. Manufacturing should commence in January, with the first sales hopefully starting to come sometime during March.
Looking ahead at the future pipeline of OTC products, they include nutraceuticals, vitamin supplements, and skin care products.
MANAGEMENT
The team has extensive experience and expertise that spans across various functions such as research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of generics and OTC health care products in the global pharmaceuticals industry. This understanding of industry best practices and strong insight allows the company to identify emerging trends in medicine and the marketplace.
The secret to being able to license so many drugs within such a short period of time, less than a year after being restructured is CEO, Arun Nayyar.
Arun only joined the company November 25th, 2013, but came with an extensive track record in the industry - specifically generics - having held executive positions with pharmaceutical companies in Latin America, Asia, and Canada. He has been instrumental in opening up new markets abroad, and domestically his accomplishments include Director, Business Development and International Sales for Shoppers Drug Mart ("SDM"), and consulting for Sanis Healthcare, George Weston Ltd. (Loblaws group), and SDM. To have a more extensive look at Arun's resume and job history, you can view his LinkedIn here.
Some information that you won't find on LinkedIn is that he's an owner of a few Shoppers Drug stores in the Vancpharmaouver area, and also has deep-ties, and solid connections in India. This helps to secure licensing of the generics in exchange for manufacturing rights when Health Canada approves the products.
The newest hire, replacing Jamie Lewin as director and CFO and announced December 3rd, 2014 was Aman Parmar. "I look forward to working with the team at Vancpharma Pharmaceuticals and am impressed by how far they have progressed with limited capital," said Mr. Parmar. "Capital efficiency and creating shareholder value will be my primary focus at Vancpharma." Since joining Vancpharma, Aman has purchased 135,000 shares on the open market ranging from 19 to 24 cents - clearly indicative that he believes the company is undervalued at these levels.
Given the fact that the company is ramping up its business, they've already started putting together a sales and marketing team, it wouldn't surprise me if another executive was brought in to help.
You can read more about the entire Vancpharma team by clicking this link (note, this page needs to be updated with Jamie/Aman).
FINANCIALS
Although Vancpharma is a pre-revenue company, I see a multiple number of visible, value-unlocking events through 2015 that can meaningfully impact stock performance.
Figure 4: Summary of Quarterly Results
The company closed an oversubscribed, non-brokered private placement for gross proceeds of $1,141,000 by issuing 7,607,332 units at $0.15/unit on December 11th, 2014. "This round of funding enables us to move our portfolio of generic drugs and OTC products into commercialization," said Arun Nayyar. "Specifically we will be acquiring generic drug inventory and building our sales team to target pharmacy customers."
The company is financed for the time being, but may have to do another round in March depending on how the roll-outs are going, and for general working capital purposes. If so, I'm sure that it would be strategic - I would think at least >$0.20, comprised primarily by sophisticated retailers and brokers, and it would not be a raise of much more than $1 million. Management only wants to raise whatever money they believe is necessary right now because they know as soon as the company starts generating revenue that its valuation has easily be many multiples of where it sits today.
SHARE STRUCTURE
Shares outstanding: 44,374,407
Stock Options: 3,975,000
Warrants: 16,212,252
Fully Diluted: 64,561,659
Major shareholders of the company, and percentage owned include:
It's a tight share structure, the 'effective' float is ~9 million shares - much less than what's been traded the past few months - 42,798,548 shares at an average price of $0.194:
Figure 5: House Positions
Source: Stockwatch
Figure 6: Management Insider Filings
REVENUE RAMP/VALUATION
It's a little early for me to try and assign a valuation, or forecast revenue and earnings for the company, however I anticipate doing so before year-end. The company hasn't informed investors of the specific margins and obviously we don't know the adoption rate because we don't know how good the sales team will be. Take a look at this article though, "The Top 11 Fastest-Growing Generis Companies", when compared some of the other generics companies, Vancpharma looks very undervalued based solely off of its standing drug portfolio.
The two best examples that come to my mind are: Paladin Labs and BioSyent (OTCPK:BIOYF).
Former pharma sales rep., and Cantech Letter contributor Hogan Mullally wrote that Paladin "became the poster child for Canadian specialty pharma. They built a remarkably successful business by acquiring the Canadian rights to a wide variety of drugs. These drugs were either too small for medium/big pharma, or were developed by a company without a Canadian commercial footprint, whatever the reason, Paladin was able to amass an eclectic and diverse portfolio of prescription and OTC drugs for the Canadian market. Through their "sum of the parts" strategy, Paladin grew to over $200 million in annual sales and in 2013 was acquired by Endo Pharmaceuticals for approximately $1.6 billion.
BioSyent is in between Vancpharma and Paladin, as it has already amassed an impressive portfolio by searching the globe to in-license or acquire innovative pharmaceutical products for the Canadian market. It too focuses on products that are too small for medium/big pharma, and have a competitive angle that can be exploited by a modest sales force. BioSyent's business model is structured to minimize risk, and to produce high growth. For the four years ended December 31, 2013 the company experienced a CAGR of 67% while consistently growing profits:
Figure 7: BioSyent Financials at a Glance
Source: Fact Sheet
There is an exit strategy for the company and shareholders - take-out target for an M&A transaction. It might take getting into a few hundred pharmacies, but the precedent has already been set. The initial adoption rate risk is reduced from the outset because between members of the management team, they own a little more than a dozen pharmacies. Not to mention now that Health Canada has granted the company a Drug Establish License it can pursue additional revenue opportunities and further de-risked the investment.
RISKS
Vancpharma is still considered an early stage company, as such there are a number of risks associated with making an investment at this point in time, including but not limited to:
(1) The company just hired a new CFO, and has a management team has dozens of years of business experience, most dealing with generic pharmaceuticals.
(2) The company plans to manufacture its products at four certified GMP pharmaceuticals factories in Canada, India and China. These U.S. FDA approved plants are capable of manufacturing a wide range of Generic Pharmaceuticals and OTC Health care products at these facilities, under the VANCPHARM label.
(3) Like I mentioned before, management controls a number of pharmacies which will de-risk the rollout process and immediately start generating revenue form the company's generics portfolio.
(4) Arun has built deep, extensive relationships in India and China, and has a lot of ideas to add more products to the portfolio (not to mention the future potential to co-development or development exclusively).
(5) The company sources its products from big products that are already approved by either the U.S. FDA or UPHRA, and also approved by Health Canada. As long as the company is in compliance with Health Canada guidelines then the ANDS application gets expedited, updated and faster tracked. The company hasn't had so much of a hiccup yet, because of the experienced team in place filing all of the paperwork.
(6) The company hasn't had an issue raising money despite the poor market for companies trading on the TSX Venture. The last PP was oversubscribed, and the shares were spread around to strong, strategic hands. Presuming management continues to achieve its milestones, I anticipate lots of eagerness for the next round.
CONCLUSION
Vancpharma set forth some ambitious goals, but has already accomplished so much in such a short amount of time that I really have large aspirations for it (and shareholders).
The company has a tried and tested business model which is simple to understand. Vancpharma enters into Cross-Referencing agreements with affiliated companies whom source products from China and India which are already approved, in exchange for manufacturing rights when the drugs are approved by Health Canada. This is very economical as there is a minimal cross-referencing fee paid to Health Canada, and a very large market opportunity (>$1 billion for current generics portfolio), with margins typically ~70%-75%.
Source: StockCharts.com
Taking a look at recent trading, there has been some healthy consolidation after the initial big run-up, ~33% off its 52-week high. MACD and RSI indicators are now in 'oversold' territory, and the stock is approaching its 200-day moving average. Up until a few months ago this stock traded 'by appointment only'. Since the middle of October, 42,798,548 shares at an average price of $0.194 have traded.
Now that the company has received 30 of its 49 Health Canada approvals (with the rest to be submitted shortly), there is a bit of work that needs to be done in order advance it from being a purely speculative growth biotech with Health Canada approvals, to one that's one being noticed by institutions and an American audience.
In the meantime, investors have two options: (1) buy now, taking the risk knowing that the company may need to finance further, but is extremely close to generating revenue; or (2) sit on the sidelines and wait until the second quarter financials are released, and make a decision then.
The latter is much less risky, however if management successfully executes on its business plan and stays on track with milestones, then I'm sure its share price will reflect it this, and it will be at a significant premium.
Bottom line, I think that there is a very compelling opportunity to invest right now given: (1) the recent pullback in share price; (2) the significance of forthcoming news releases to act as catalysts to unlock shareholder value; (3) management's achievements to date and their track record to deliver results; (4) market opportunity (>$1 billion on current portfolio) and attractive valuations of sector peers; and (5) lack of competition in the Western Canadian generics market and the opportunity to generate imminent revenue.
(For additional liquidity, NUVPF. trades in Canada on the TSX Venture as "NPH". 3-month average volume 637,531 shares/day.)
Please feel free to comment below or send me an inbox message if you have any questions or comments about this article.
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