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Len, that is very intriguing.. why 7,8,9 people ipck is down.. is it because of the anomaly/outlier (like WHAI etc)...
maybe it will be interesting if you remove the outlier.. top 2 and bottom 2 stocks in that group...
also maybe the 7-9 people don't know what they are doing?
either what , I find it intriguing.. because supposedly (especially in the long run) the return of the 7-9 people should be closer to the 10 people or more rather than the other less people pick..
even the self fulfilling prophecy will suggest so..
unless they already own them before the contest and then since it's down theysell to take tax loss deduction hence magnifying the loss.. and since it's microcap.. the price can be impacted greatley in % wise..
Stan
But wouldn't that be a herd mentality??
Len.. On the surface, your "Sheepish was best" argument seems striking. I'm looking at the components, however, and I really don't think it would stand up to FDA scrutiny. For one thing, the "n" for the "Picked by One" group is very large (over 100), as is the "n" for the "Picked by Two" (around 30). However, the "n's" of the groups "Picked by 7-9" and "Picked by 10 or more" are small; 7 for the former and 8 for the latter. This brings forth the question; "why were the groups split at the designated points, rather than a combined group of "7 or more" which would at least have 15.
The percentage for such a group would be much lower but would be a more valid group. As is, there seems to be a degree of selectivity involved in organizing the data.
The data kind of reminds me of SSK's numbers yesterday on price appreciation vs starting price. If you just look at the $5-$10 range vs the "under $1" stocks it appears the more expensive ones did nearly twice as well. The "n's" here are large (over 30), so it's probably significant. However, when you look at nearby groups, the trends disappear.
Just some random hangover thoughts :)
lentinman:
The moral to the story--go with the herd. Thanks for all of the interesting statistics. Makes you stop and think.
bbotcs
FINAL PSL1 COMPARISON TO BROADER MARKETS:
You can see from the numbers below (and graphically visible on the chart) that as a group we were (at one time) +40.91% BETTER than the average of the indexes. This happened around halfway through the contest. However the margin over the indexes dropped by about half (+20.84%) as of just a couple weeks ago. Still, being 23.40% better than the broad markets in 6 months is pretty good!
PSL1 - Index3+ Chart: http://www.kcstatman.com/PSL1Index3plus.xls (Excel required)
(Updated weekly and in IBox)
COMPARISON
+30.30% --- Index3+ (see below
+ 6.90% --- 7 Major Indexes (see below)
-----------
+23.40% DIFFERENTIAL
WEEKLY CHANGE IN DIFFERENTIAL:
- 0.92% Week 1
+ 3.65% Week 2
+ 3.06% Week 3
+ 5.68% Week 4
+13.48% Week 5
+21.25% Week 6
+20.53% Week 7
+16.31 Week 8
+21.27 Week 9
+32.43 Week 10
+36.89 Week 11
+35.78 Week 12
+40.91 Week 13
+36.49 Week 14
+29.17 Week 15
+28.90 Week 16
+29.45 Week 17
+25.62 Week 18
+27.59 Week 19
+27.15 Week 20
+25.29 Week 21
+22.82 Week 22
+24.28 Week 23
+24.71 Week 24
+20.84 Week 25
+21.54 Week 26
+23.40 Week 27
7 MAJOR INDEXES
+ 5.39% Wilshire 5000
+ 4.31% DOW
+ 7.21% NAS
+ 7.43% NYSE
+ 4.81% S&P 500
+13.93% AMEX
+ 5.19% Russell 2000
--------------------
+ 6.90% Average of all 7 Indexes: Last Week: +8.23%
INDEX 3+
The index that I believe in the most is called Index3+. This is all stocks that we picked 3 or more times with it being weighted for those stocks that we pick the most. For example PDGE (with 24 picks) is 8 times as weighted as WPCS (with 3 picks). I suspect this index will follow the actual average contestant pretty closely.
Len
FINAL PSL1 INDEX RESULTS & CHART:
The most notable thing here is that those stocks that were picked by either 7, 8 or 9 people were actually negative during the contest (-8.95), the worst group by far. The other noteworthy point is that the stocks picked by only 2 people were the second best group behind those picked by 10 or more.
PSL1 - Indexes Chart: http://www.kcstatman.com/PSL1IndexChart.xls (Excel required)
(Updated weekly and located in the IBOX)
The purpose of this group is to show how the stocks picked by the fewest competitors compare with the stocks picked by the most competitors (known as sheep).
LW = Last Week
+20.71%: Index1: Those stocks picked only by one person. LW: +21.05%
Len
+33.10%: Index2: Those stocks picked only by 2 people. LW: +32.82%
+14.35%: Index3: Those stocks picked only by 3 people. LW: +16.10%
+32.58%: Index4-6: Those stocks picked only by 4 to 6 people. LW: +29.86%
-8.95%: Index7-9: Those stocks picked only by 7 to 9 people. LW: -10.04%
+47.93%: Index10+: Those stocks picked only by 10 or more people. LW: +49.09%
Niles:
I might play around with it more if SSK doesn't first. But, overall, I really doubt there will be anything that can be of use just based on his stats. What difference does it make if $1.40-$1.50 was exceptionally good or bad compared to $1.30-$1.40 or $1.50-$1.60? Unless there is some type of trend (and a trend that has a big enough sample size to be meaningful) then it is just coincidence.
Len
Len, I wonder if the stocks were put in smaller price groups (5-10 each) if trends might be more apparent. Of course, a stock like WHAI would have a big effect on the group containing the "3.4 range", but it would have no effect on close by groups. ...or maybe the "median" of each group might tell us something.
Maybe the question should relate to Market Cap <g>.
How about if we remove the bottom 2 performer and see what happen...
or remove 1 top and 1 bottom performer..
kind of nice to be able to remove those whai etc..
Niles:
I'm not sure what more we could get. I agree, that was fast. There doesn't appear to be any relationship or correlation regarding overall returns.
I would bet that the lower dollar amounts have a higher standard deviation, however, but that is probably only relevant if you wanted to shoot the moon rather than worry about overall returns. Of course, in this contest, shooting the moon is a legitimate consideration.
Len
SSK, Thanks. That was fast! I wonder if a simple average is the best tool in this instance, or whether something that would determine the "typical" percentage gain of each group would be. Maybe Len will have something to say on that.
Niles, you have questions, I have answers. I put the stocks into 5 groups.
$.25-.99 Purchase Price
$1.00-2.99 Purchase Price
$3.00-4.99 Purchase Price
$5.00-9.99 Purchase Price
$10+ Puchase Price
Number Of Stocks in each group
$.25-.99 Purchase Price:35
$1.00-2.99 Purchase Price:64
$3.00-4.99 Purchase Price:26
$5.00-9.99 Purchase Price:39
$10+ Puchase Price: 30
% Gain For Each Group
$.25-.99 Purchase Price: 14.43%
$1.00-2.99 Purchase Price:26.29%
$3.00-4.99 Purchase Price:12.91%
$5.00-9.99 Purchase Price:34.10%
$10+ Puchase Price: 16.42%
So as we can see the best perfroming stocks were stocks brought in the beginning of the contest at $5.00-9.99, and the worst performance of group of stocks was $3.00-4.99. I really can't tell you if there is any significance to these statistics, but this is the info. you were curious to take a look at. Hope this helps. Later.
Niles:
You are right. That would be interesting. I may do that after I get done crunching all the other numbers I have to crunch. Actually, along with Mr. Sheep and Mr. Consistency, you could start calling me .... Captain Crunch.
Len
MR. SHEEP COMPARISONS:
Shown below is each person in order by their Mr. Sheep Ratings with each person's final rank to the side:
Obviously, there is a correlation between the higher the sheep rank and the higher the final ranking. None of us ever argued that would not be the case - even me. The issue was always about #1 and I couldn't have been more wrong about that. I stand by the analysis 100%, but it just didn't work out this time. I think if there had been a 600% gainer as I estimated there would be, it would have been someone else as the winner simply because CWS only has 6 stocks of the 194 total. The odds are it would have been somebody else with the 600% gainer. A better example (as I have used before) is if a stock had gone up 10,000%, the odds of the winner of the contest would be just as good for anyone as anyone else... the only issue being whether a sheepier stock would be more likely to be the 10,000% gainer than a non sheepier stock. Actually, I would assume the opposite because any 10,000% gainer is likely to be one nobody knows about.
But, even on this list there are some notable things to comment on besides the obvious CWS9. What I find especially interesting is that if you start looking at the list you will wonder where is #2, #3, #4, etc. Actually, they were the #38, #40 and #41 sheepiest pickers (all in the bottom half). For that matter, #6, #7 and #8 were all well down the list too. In fact, #8 was EREWONTUM and he was LAST on the proverbial Sheep-O-Meter.
On the flip side, you can see that Linuspop (despite being the 4th sheepiest) ended #33, PlopPlop - 6th sheepiest was #38 and RMIWA - 9th sheepiest was #46. The top-10 are in bold.
Len
1 CWS9
5 GUY
9 TMCAL6
33 LINUSPOP
15 MIKEO56
38 PLOPPLOP
20 CROCHUNTER
14 MIKES97707
46 RMIWA
22 PC
18 BOBWINS
31 COFFEE221
16 KIPP440
10 PHIL(BULL)
19 GILEAD
37 TBONE58X
26 CLEVERROX
25 DANLC
28 ELOHSSA
56 FOOTWEDGE
12 BBTOCS
24 JOEINIOWA
48 KSUAVE
44 AVANDALAY
6 ECHOS
17 LENTINMAN
71 STOCKPEEKER
7 RRRUFF
29 STANU78
41 WORTHLION
55 SSKILLZ1
70 BIEGLEDOG
60 ESTIMATED PROFIT
74 SANDMAN777
50 MOBIEONEADOBE
52 RESEARCHER59
42 ROUGEDOLPHIN
4 HOGFAN
61 STEVENRISK
2 BIGPIKE
3 NILESCRANE
67 SWANLINBAR
47 CLIFF VB
45 PATENTLAWMEISTER
39 MSGI
13 BUCFAN
63 THEALICEMAY
23 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST
69 SHMOLTON
40 VALUEMIND
34 MRDMRD
58 ABH3VT
59 HWEB2
68 JIMWI
75 RRAINMAN
49 SWB173
11 10BAGGER
57 2MORROWSGAINS
32 RAWNOC
62 ARNIE70
73 DEATHTOTAXES
76 HOMERROMER
35 RJSADEY
65 C1001
51 ZENLUNATIC
21 LARRYBAZ
53 OTCBARGAINS
64 YIELDDUDE
27 NUTSABOUTGOLF
72 JERRYINCT.
36 KYK2001
66 SWAMPBOOTS
30 KNOWLEDGE
54 FINANCIALADVISOR
43 SLEESTACK
8 EREHWONTUM
Len
Len, Another interesting thing to ponder sometime is how the cheaper stocks did relative to the more expensive ones.
Mine were mostly on the upper end (3.4, 4.15, 5.65, 6.95, 7.17, 9.5). It turned out that the cheapest one killed me. It looks as if most of the big winners started around 1.5, but I wonder if that range did better or worse overall.
Mr. Consistency: A different view.
SSK: Well, I was hoping for Mr. Boggs, but Mr. Consistency will do nicely. Thanks for doing the work on that! Here are the top-20 by Mr. Consistency with the top-20 winners by return in parenthesis. An interesting comparison at the bottom.
1 CWS9 (1)
2 NILES CRANE (3)
3 MR. SHEEP (6)
4 GUY (5)
5 BIGPIKE (2)
6 PHIL (BULLRIDER) (11)
7 10BAGGER (12)
8 TMCAL6 (10)
9 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST (24)
10 BUCFAN33617 (14)
11 KIPP440 (17)
12 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 (28)
13 LARRYBAZ (22)
14 BOBWINS (19)
15 ECHOS (7)
16 HOGFAN (4)
17 BBOTCS (13)
18 LENTINMAN (18)
19 CROCHNTR (21)
20 GILEAD23 (20)
21 Erewontim (9)
22 Mikeo56 (16)
28 MikeS97707 (15)
34 Rrruff (8)
Skeptical and Nuts have the most consistent returns for not being as highly ranked overall. Hogfan and Rrruff have the best overall returns for not being that consistent. Here are the rankings of the four. You can sure see the difference.
CONSISTENT
Skeptical: +75 +71 +59 +33 +17 +0 9th by Consistency, 24th overall
Nuts: +94 +59 +45 +41 +16 -18 12th by Consistency, 28th overall
INCONSISTENT
Hogfan: +229 +159 +95 -2 -19 -33 16th by Consistency, 4th overall
Rrufff: +229 +178 +62 -19 -31 -37 34th by Consistency, 8th overall
Len
SSK:
Thanks for clarifying. I tried over and over to figure out what that meant. I guess I was just dense.
Since 55% of the top 20 stocks were single pick stocks (that's how I would describe them), then IF there had been a +600% stock, the odds are at least 55% that someone that wasn't particularly sheepy would have won the contest. I think the single biggest reason that the sheepiest person won is because we DID NOT have a +600% stock as I expected we would have.
Also, I agree 100% that Mr. Sheep will rate high. I always said that - not that you said I didn't. The issue with Mr. Sheep - just as with CWS9 is whether he could win it all - something I considered very unlikely on both.
As to the top 4 stocks, I will discuss that in more detail soon.
Len
Len, Which of us were achieved a statistically significant difference between ourselves and Mr. Sheep? <g>.
Hey Mr. Sheep, you can kiss my ars! oh wait, i see
that you are already doing that. Better luck next
time sheepo.
Differences Between Consistency Standings and Regular VMC Contest Standings Chart:
This chart is to see if we went by Mr. consistency standings (Which we don’t), instead of the regular way we look at the VMC Contest Standings. A positive # means you were helped by a positive move up in the standings (Looking in terms of Mr. Consistency), obviously the number tells you the number of places you moved up/down in these terms compared to the regular standings. Consequently, a negative number means looking at thing in Mr. Consistency Terms hurt you. So without further ado the chart is below. I must admit I’m kind of tired, I need to rest now. If anyone has any questions about any of my posts, I will get back to you as soon as I can.
Happy New Year To All.
---Stockpickers Alias----Difference in Consistency Vs. Regular
1 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 16
2 ROGUEDOLPHIN 16
3 PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 15
4 RMIWA 15
5 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST 15
6 RJSADEY 10
7 SWANLINBAR 10
8 COFFEE 221 9
9 FINANCIALADVISOR 9
10 LARRYBAZ 9
11 PATENTLAWMEISTER 9
12 ZEN LUNATIC420 8
13 CLIFFVB 7
14 ABH3VT 6
15 AVANDALAY05 6
16 KIPP440 6
17 KYK2001 6
18 STOCKPEEKER 6
19 10BAGGER 5
20 BOBWINS 5
21 PHIL (BULLRIDER) 5
22 BUCFAN33617 4
23 JERRY IN CT. 4
24 OTCBARGAINS 4
25 THEALICEMAY 4
26 MR. SHEEP 3
27 TBONE 58X 3
28 CROCHNTR 2
29 RESEARCHER59 2
30 TMCAL6 2
31 YIELDDUDE 2
32 2MORROWSGAINS 1
33 FOOTWEDGE 1
34 GUY 1
35 HOMERROMER 1
36 NILES CRANE 1
37 RRAINMAN99 1
38 SSKILLZ1 1
39 BEIGLEDOG -
40 CWS9 -
41 DEATHTOTAXES -
42 GILEAD23 -
43 KSUAVE -
44 LENTINMAN -
45 ARNIE70 (1)
46 ESTIMATED PROPHET (1)
47 SWAMPBOOTS (1)
48 VALUEMIND (1)
49 KNOWLEDGEISKING (2)
50 PC (2)
51 SANDMAN777 (2)
52 SHMOLTON (2)
53 BIGPIKE (3)
54 DANLC (3)
55 MRDMRD (3)
56 RAWNOC (3)
57 BBOTCS (4)
58 C1001 (4)
59 JIM WI (4)
60 HWEB2 (5)
61 JOEINIOWA (5)
62 STEVENRISK (5)
63 MIKEO56 (6)
64 MSGI (7)
65 ECHOS (8)
66 MOBEONEADOBE (8)
67 SLEESTACK76 (10)
68 WORTHYLION (10)
69 SWB173 (11)
70 EREHWONTIM (12)
71 HOGFAN (12)
72 CLEVERROX (13)
73 MIKES97707 (13)
74 STANU78 (13)
75 LINUSPOP (14)
76 ELOHSSA (16)
77 RRUFFF (26)
Mr. Consistency Statistics Commentary:
First, I want to give congrats to CWS9, for finishing first in Mr. Consistency. Now I need to explain what I mean by Mr. Consistency. First of all the person deemed with the lowest score, is considered to be Mr. Consistency. Each stock is given a score from 1-194 depending where it finished in the standings. Obviously 1 stands for the first place finisher, and 194 stands for the stock that had the worst performance. Now when we sum up the total score of your six stocks, we get a number, and then that is you Mr. Consistency scores. So without further ado the table is below.
---Stockpickers Alias-----Consistency Points
1 CWS9 199
2 NILES CRANE 278
3 MR. SHEEP 296
4 GUY 298
5 BIGPIKE 304
6 PHIL (BULLRIDER) 328
7 10BAGGER 333
8 TMCAL6 354
9 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST 364
10 BUCFAN33617 388
11 KIPP440 393
12 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 400
13 LARRYBAZ 419
14 BOBWINS 425
15 ECHOS 428
16 HOGFAN 430
17 BBOTCS 432
18 LENTINMAN 432
19 CROCHNTR 438
20 GILEAD23 444
21 EREHWONTIM 447
22 MIKEO56 452
23 COFFEE 221 470
24 PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 478
25 PC 480
26 RJSADEY 494
27 ROGUEDOLPHIN 497
28 MIKES97707 498
29 DANLC 499
30 JOEINIOWA 505
31 KYK2001 512
32 RMIWA 520
33 KNOWLEDGEISKING 529
34 RRUFFF 529
35 TBONE 58X 537
36 RAWNOC 542
37 PATENTLAWMEISTER 545
38 MRDMRD 551
39 AVANDALAY05 554
40 CLEVERROX 556
41 CLIFFVB 556
42 VALUEMIND 557
43 STANU78 559
44 ZEN LUNATIC420 559
45 ELOHSSA 560
46 FINANCIALADVISOR 585
47 MSGI 587
48 LINUSPOP 592
49 KSUAVE 594
50 OTCBARGAINS 603
51 RESEARCHER59 607
52 WORTHYLION 613
53 ABH3VT 629
54 SLEESTACK76 629
55 SSKILLZ1 638
56 FOOTWEDGE 648
57 2MORROWSGAINS 656
58 SWANLINBAR 678
59 MOBEONEADOBE 691
60 THEALICEMAY 693
61 SWB173 694
62 ESTIMATED PROPHET 695
63 YIELDDUDE 704
64 ARNIE70 706
65 HWEB2 706
66 STOCKPEEKER 710
67 STEVENRISK 713
68 SWAMPBOOTS 713
69 JERRY IN CT. 719
70 C1001 728
71 BEIGLEDOG 746
72 SHMOLTON 754
73 JIM WI 770
74 DEATHTOTAXES 812
75 RRAINMAN99 897
76 HOMERROMER 912
77 SANDMAN777 945
Len, Here Goes. "What does this mean? "---Only one person picked 11 out of the top 20 placed stocks." I just cannot figure out what you are saying."
It means that 11 of the top 20 stocks were pick by only one person.
"A lot has been made by Len, that one of the reason why a sheep like CWS9 won the contest was the unusual performance of the top 4, and he is right the top 4 have done extremely well. But is really that the reason why CWS9 won the contest,"
Len I was trying to make two points, here and they way I worded it, it got messed up. CWS9 won more because of AOB & FPP, which I admit really has nothing to do with what you said. The second point was against something you said, that you made our most popular stock picks out to be overachieving by an overwhelming extent. I disagree with the fact that they grossly outperformed for several reasons (1) I don't think it is fair to take a sample of 4, and make a judgement about anything, eventhough the fact show the top 4 did outperform. (2) The nature of the contest, since there wasn't really a dominant stock, but a lot of good perfromers, I mean VPHM is the only stock in the top 20. The others coming in 22nd, 36th, and 39th I wouldn't consider this out of this world #, for our top picks, they are really good, but I disagree with you like this should never ever happen, because all stocks are not created equal are most favorite on Average will do better, then those less favored. My point is it looks like these 4 stock out performed, because they did but you have to look at the nature of this contest there were alot of stocks up significantly above the average return, so do you really think our best 4 idea (as a collective) wouldn't appear in the top 80 (Approx. above average) of the 194 stocks, knowing the talent we have on this board. That all I was saying is to assume that all stock are created equal is extremely flawed, and being a sheep on this board isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Peak/Trough Ranges:
HIGHEST RANGE
61 ZenLunatic
62 Sandman
62 JoeinIowa
66 TheAliceMay
67 Researcher59
68 Lentinman
70 Stockpeeker
70 Stanu78
70 OTCBargains
70 DanLC
71 Bigpike
74 Gilead
74 Swanlinbar
75 Rrufff
LOWEST RANGE
20 Mr.Sheep
19 BBtocs
12 TMCal6
8 HomerRomer
Len
I would have done better without DHB and AWRCF (maybe in the top 10 or even better if those losers were replaced by a better stock)... but oh well.. middle of the pack isn't too bad either especially as this whole bunch is an awesome bunch..
Stan
Top 10/Top5 Standings Charts:
Below are two charts that show the top 5 standings (Meaning # of times you were in the top 5), and the same for the # of times you were in the top 10. So without further ado the charts are below. Keep in mind there were 127 trading days.
--------------# Of Top 10
-----Name-----Finishes
1 MR. SHEEP 123
2 TMCAL6 119
3 CWS9 93
4 MIKES97707 89
5 HOGFAN 86
6 PHIL (BULLRIDER) 86
7 BIGPIKE 85
8 ECHOS 76
9 RRUFFF 69
10 BBOTCS 65
11 GUY 47
12 KIPP440 38
13 NILES CRANE 35
14 JOEINIOWA 34
15 KNOWLEDGEISKING 31
16 MIKEO56 25
17 CLEVERROX 20
18 GILEAD23 17
19 VALUEMIND 17
20 CROCHNTR 16
21 BOBWINS 15
22 THEALICEMAY 12
23 10BAGGER 11
24 STOCKPEEKER 11
25 EREHWONTIM 10
26 LINUSPOP 8
27 STANU78 6
28 ZEN LUNATIC420 5
29 AVANDALAY05 4
30 LENTINMAN 4
31 RAWNOC 2
32 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST 2
33 ARNIE70 1
34 DANLC 1
35 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 1
36 OTCBARGAINS 1
37 RESEARCHER59 1
38 RJSADEY 1
39 SWANLINBAR 1
40 SWB173 1
41 YIELDDUDE 1
42 2MORROWSGAINS 0
43 ABH3VT 0
44 BEIGLEDOG 0
45 BUCFAN33617 0
46 C1001 0
47 CLIFFVB 0
48 COFFEE 221 0
49 DEATHTOTAXES 0
50 ELOHSSA 0
51 ESTIMATED PROPHET 0
52 FINANCIALADVISOR 0
53 FOOTWEDGE 0
54 HOMERROMER 0
55 HWEB2 0
56 JERRY IN CT. 0
57 JIM WI 0
58 KSUAVE 0
59 KYK2001 0
60 LARRYBAZ 0
61 MOBEONEADOBE 0
62 MRDMRD 0
63 MSGI 0
64 PATENTLAWMEISTER 0
65 PC 0
66 PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 0
67 RMIWA 0
68 ROGUEDOLPHIN 0
69 RRAINMAN99 0
70 SANDMAN777 0
71 SHMOLTON 0
72 SLEESTACK76 0
73 SSKILLZ1 0
74 STEVENRISK 0
75 SWAMPBOOTS 0
76 TBONE 58X 0
77 WORTHYLION 0
--------------# Of Top 5
-----Name-----Finishes
1 CWS9 90
2 HOGFAN 73
3 TMCAL6 65
4 BIGPIKE 64
5 RRUFFF 58
6 ECHOS 53
7 MIKES97707 51
8 MR. SHEEP 45
9 BBOTCS 26
10 KNOWLEDGEISKING 18
11 NILES CRANE 13
12 MIKEO56 12
13 CLEVERROX 10
14 STOCKPEEKER 8
15 THEALICEMAY 8
16 KIPP440 6
17 VALUEMIND 6
18 GUY 5
19 ZEN LUNATIC420 5
20 GILEAD23 4
21 10BAGGER 3
22 AVANDALAY05 2
23 LENTINMAN 2
24 CROCHNTR 1
25 DANLC 1
26 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 1
27 OTCBARGAINS 1
28 RESEARCHER59 1
29 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST 1
30 SWANLINBAR 1
31 YIELDDUDE 1
32 2MORROWSGAINS 0
33 ABH3VT 0
34 ARNIE70 0
35 BEIGLEDOG 0
36 BOBWINS 0
37 BUCFAN33617 0
38 C1001 0
39 CLIFFVB 0
40 COFFEE 221 0
41 DEATHTOTAXES 0
42 ELOHSSA 0
43 EREHWONTIM 0
44 ESTIMATED PROPHET 0
45 FINANCIALADVISOR 0
46 FOOTWEDGE 0
47 HOMERROMER 0
48 HWEB2 0
49 JERRY IN CT. 0
50 JIM WI 0
51 JOEINIOWA 0
52 KSUAVE 0
53 KYK2001 0
54 LARRYBAZ 0
55 LINUSPOP 0
56 MOBEONEADOBE 0
57 MRDMRD 0
58 MSGI 0
59 PATENTLAWMEISTER 0
60 PC 0
61 PHIL (BULLRIDER) 0
62 PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 0
63 RAWNOC 0
64 RJSADEY 0
65 RMIWA 0
66 ROGUEDOLPHIN 0
67 RRAINMAN99 0
68 SANDMAN777 0
69 SHMOLTON 0
70 SLEESTACK76 0
71 SSKILLZ1 0
72 STANU78 0
73 STEVENRISK 0
74 SWAMPBOOTS 0
75 SWB173 0
76 TBONE 58X 0
77 WORTHYLION 0
SSK: Clarification:
What does this mean? "---Only one person picked 11 out of the top 20 placed stocks." I just cannot figure out what you are saying.
"A lot has been made by Len, that one of the reason why a sheep like CWS9 won the contest was the unusual performance of the top 4, and he is right the top 4 have done extremely well. But is really that the reason why CWS9 won the contest,"
I'm afraid you mischaracterized what I said about the top 4 stocks. I never said that they were the reason CWS9 was likely to be the winner. In fact, I'm pretty sure I have never even mentioned CWS9 in the top 4 stock discussions. What I have said is that the top 4 stocks have grossly outperformed compared to the other 190 stocks - even compared to the other sheep stocks - and that, unless it is a self-fulfilling prophecy - one we won't have in PSL2 due to picking blind, that is is purely coincidence - at least to the degree it existed.
Len
Trough/Peak Position Chart:
Below is a chart that shows everyone’s highest placement during the whole contest, as well as their lowest placement during the contest. So without further ado the info. Is below.
----------Peak-------Trough
---Name---Position---Position
1 TMCAL6 1 13
2 ZEN LUNATIC420 1 62
3 VALUEMIND 3 43
4 BBOTCS 2 21
5 MR. SHEEP 2 22
6 GUY 3 32
7 CLEVERROX 2 58
8 HOGFAN 2 36
9 LINUSPOP 8 62
10 AVANDALAY05 4 51
11 CROCHNTR 5 42
12 MIKEO56 2 35
13 MIKES97707 1 23
14 PHIL (BULLRIDER) 6 40
15 THEALICEMAY 1 67
16 YIELDDUDE 5 68
17 MOBEONEADOBE 17 56
18 NILES CRANE 2 31
19 ECHOS 2 32
20 KIPP440 3 27
21 CWS9 1 42
22 SANDMAN777 14 76
23 ARNIE70 9 71
24 10BAGGER 3 31
25 RESEARCHER59 2 69
26 RJSADEY 10 58
27 KNOWLEDGEISKING 1 46
28 BOBWINS 7 37
29 RAWNOC 6 45
30 JIM WI 30 73
31 SWB173 9 68
32 PC 15 72
33 STEVENRISK 31 69
34 CLIFFVB 16 60
35 STOCKPEEKER 2 72
36 BUCFAN33617 13 49
37 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST 1 43
38 FINANCIALADVISOR 29 67
39 C1001 31 71
40 TBONE 58X 21 61
41 KYK2001 16 60
42 EREHWONTIM 6 46
43 RMIWA 24 52
44 RRUFFF 2 77
45 SSKILLZ1 20 64
46 COFFEE 221 18 69
47 JOEINIOWA 6 68
48 LENTINMAN 3 71
49 FOOTWEDGE 21 61
50 MSGI 29 68
51 ROGUEDOLPHIN 11 59
52 PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 26 69
53 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 5 63
54 LARRYBAZ 15 63
55 BIGPIKE 2 73
56 STANU78 7 77
57 OTCBARGAINS 4 74
58 WORTHYLION 11 64
59 PATENTLAWMEISTER 43 71
60 2MORROWSGAINS 43 68
61 DEATHTOTAXES 53 76
62 MRDMRD 29 76
63 SHMOLTON 35 76
64 SLEESTACK76 37 74
65 KSUAVE 18 77
66 GILEAD23 1 75
67 ESTIMATED PROPHET 47 76
68 SWAMPBOOTS 28 76
69 DANLC 3 73
70 BEIGLEDOG 44 73
71 HWEB2 39 76
72 ABH3VT 46 75
73 ELOHSSA 16 73
74 JERRY IN CT. 32 76
75 SWANLINBAR 3 77
76 RRAINMAN99 16 77
77 HOMERROMER 69 77
Up/Down Portfolio Chart:
Below is a chart that shows each day performance in terms of # up portfolios and # down portfolios, I excluded Mr. Sheep just to tick him off, trust me he was pretty irritated at me last night when I informed him he finished out of the top 5, he actually can be very rude he hung up the phone on me in disgust last night. LOL. Now back to the charts, the best performance we had was October 14th when we had 70 portfolios up and 6 down. The worst performance we had happened on 10/12/05 where we had 72 portfolios down, and a measly 4 up. The average portfolios up were 39.9, versus the average portfolios down of 36.1. The most frequent ratio appeared 9/127 or 7.09% was 42 portfolios up and 34 down.
The top 20 days for the market we had an average of 52.35 portfolios up and 23.65 portfolios down. During those days the index rose an average of 1.66%. On the other side the 20 worst days in the market we had and average of 23.40 portfolios up and 52.60 portfolios down. During those days the index dropped an average of 1.50%. So I guess the conclusion that can be raised here, is our performance is tied at least somewhat to the trend of the market, although are paths will diverge (Probably out performance) we will still follow the trend so if 2006 is a terrible year, then I would say look out below for our portfolios. So without further ado the table is below.
Date---Up---Down---Russell 2000 Close---Up/Down In Points---Up/Down In %
7/1/2005 38 38 643.04 3.38 0.53%
7/5/2005 40 36 653.23 10.19 1.58%
7/6/2005 63 13 648.27 -4.96 -0.76%
7/7/2005 47 29 649.30 1.03 0.16%
7/8/2005 62 14 662.14 12.84 1.98%
7/11/2005 40 36 671.74 9.60 1.45%
7/12/2005 55 21 670.79 -0.95 -0.14%
7/13/2005 46 30 667.65 -3.14 -0.47%
7/14/2005 26 50 663.02 -4.63 -0.69%
7/15/2005 29 47 663.74 0.72 0.11%
7/18/2005 43 33 658.56 -5.18 -0.78%
7/19/2005 66 10 668.86 10.30 1.56%
7/20/2005 54 22 677.56 8.70 1.30%
7/21/2005 30 46 667.10 -10.46 -1.54%
7/22/2005 52 24 677.78 10.68 1.60%
7/25/2005 55 21 670.99 -6.79 -1.00%
7/26/2005 61 15 674.58 3.59 0.54%
7/27/2005 45 31 674.88 0.30 0.04%
7/28/2005 52 24 683.04 8.16 1.21%
7/29/2005 48 28 679.75 -3.29 -0.48%
8/1/2005 55 21 682.80 3.05 0.45%
8/2/2005 45 31 688.51 5.71 0.84%
8/3/2005 47 29 683.38 -5.13 -0.75%
8/4/2005 49 27 671.84 -11.54 -1.69%
8/5/2005 38 38 662.79 -9.05 -1.35%
8/8/2005 56 20 659.60 -3.19 -0.48%
8/9/2005 35 41 660.48 0.88 0.13%
8/10/2005 20 56 660.16 -0.32 -0.05%
8/11/2005 51 25 666.37 6.21 0.94%
8/12/2005 34 42 660.00 -6.37 -0.96%
8/15/2005 42 34 665.64 5.64 0.85%
8/16/2005 22 54 654.61 -11.03 -1.66%
8/17/2005 12 64 654.82 0.21 0.03%
8/18/2005 28 48 651.19 -3.63 -0.55%
8/19/2005 48 28 652.51 1.32 0.20%
8/22/2005 55 21 657.47 4.96 0.76%
8/23/2005 42 34 655.47 -2.00 -0.30%
8/24/2005 53 23 655.01 -0.46 -0.07%
8/25/2005 50 26 657.70 2.69 0.41%
8/26/2005 19 57 648.64 -9.06 -1.38%
8/29/2005 54 22 655.32 6.68 1.03%
8/30/2005 56 20 653.76 -1.56 -0.24%
8/31/2005 59 17 666.51 12.75 1.95%
9/1/2005 46 30 668.45 1.94 0.29%
9/2/2005 39 37 663.33 -5.12 -0.77%
9/5/2005 ------ --------- 663.33 0.00 0.00%
9/6/2005 52 24 674.48 11.15 1.68%
9/7/2005 55 21 677.32 2.84 0.42%
9/8/2005 45 31 673.47 -3.85 -0.57%
9/9/2005 53 23 678.05 4.58 0.68%
9/12/2005 54 22 680.82 2.77 0.41%
9/13/2005 36 40 673.13 -7.69 -1.13%
9/14/2005 9 67 666.35 -6.78 -1.01%
9/15/2005 22 54 665.42 -0.93 -0.14%
9/16/2005 45 31 671.98 6.56 0.99%
9/19/2005 54 22 667.02 -4.96 -0.74%
9/20/2005 38 38 660.63 -6.39 -0.96%
9/21/2005 34 42 649.94 -10.69 -1.62%
9/22/2005 39 37 651.16 1.22 0.19%
9/23/2005 31 45 655.46 4.30 0.66%
9/26/2005 49 27 660.20 4.74 0.72%
9/27/2005 24 52 659.17 -1.03 -0.16%
9/28/2005 30 46 656.04 -3.13 -0.47%
9/29/2005 50 26 665.03 8.99 1.37%
9/30/2005 38 38 667.80 2.77 0.42%
10/3/2005 37 39 670.55 2.75 0.41%
10/4/2005 18 58 663.84 -6.71 -1.00%
10/5/2005 5 71 644.98 -18.86 -2.84%
10/6/2005 12 64 639.45 -5.53 -0.86%
10/7/2005 61 15 644.33 4.88 0.76%
10/10/2005 32 44 637.97 -6.36 -0.99%
10/11/2005 32 44 630.08 -7.89 -1.24%
10/12/2005 4 72 621.57 -8.51 -1.35%
10/13/2005 15 61 623.28 1.71 0.28%
10/14/2005 70 6 633.15 9.87 1.58%
10/17/2005 55 21 633.37 0.22 0.03%
10/18/2005 15 61 625.36 -8.01 -1.26%
10/19/2005 50 26 638.28 12.92 2.07%
10/20/2005 22 54 627.54 -10.74 -1.68%
10/21/2005 38 38 632.73 5.19 0.83%
10/24/2005 47 29 646.60 13.87 2.19%
10/25/2005 51 25 642.73 -3.87 -0.60%
10/26/2005 32 44 638.41 -4.32 -0.67%
10/27/2005 6 70 624.03 -14.38 -2.25%
10/28/2005 39 37 635.33 11.30 1.81%
10/31/2005 48 28 646.61 11.28 1.78%
11/1/2005 48 28 643.02 -3.59 -0.56%
11/2/2005 59 17 657.05 14.03 2.18%
11/3/2005 42 34 658.77 1.72 0.26%
11/4/2005 31 45 658.16 -0.61 -0.09%
11/7/2005 57 19 661.24 3.08 0.47%
11/8/2005 53 23 656.23 -5.01 -0.76%
11/9/2005 26 50 659.83 3.60 0.55%
11/10/2005 21 55 664.93 5.10 0.77%
11/11/2005 42 34 666.66 1.73 0.26%
11/14/2005 42 34 663.93 -2.73 -0.41%
11/15/2005 8 68 656.23 -7.70 -1.16%
11/16/2005 36 40 654.64 -1.59 -0.24%
11/17/2005 55 21 667.14 12.50 1.91%
11/18/2005 52 24 672.22 5.08 0.76%
11/21/2005 39 37 678.96 6.74 1.00%
11/22/2005 42 34 682.55 3.59 0.53%
11/23/2005 25 51 683.14 0.59 0.09%
11/24/2005 ------ --------- 683.14 0.00 0.00%
11/25/2005 60 16 683.58 0.44 0.06%
11/28/2005 26 50 671.50 -12.08 -1.77%
11/29/2005 19 57 673.69 2.19 0.33%
11/30/2005 58 18 677.29 3.60 0.53%
12/1/2005 47 29 690.21 12.92 1.91%
12/2/2005 62 14 690.57 0.36 0.05%
12/5/2005 40 36 686.57 -4.00 -0.58%
12/6/2005 35 41 687.58 1.01 0.15%
12/7/2005 46 30 683.01 -4.57 -0.66%
12/8/2005 42 34 685.22 2.21 0.32%
12/9/2005 42 34 688.77 3.55 0.52%
12/12/2005 29 47 689.54 0.77 0.11%
12/13/2005 23 53 689.03 -0.51 -0.07%
12/14/2005 14 62 690.50 1.47 0.21%
12/15/2005 41 35 684.74 -5.76 -0.83%
12/16/2005 35 41 683.09 -1.65 -0.24%
12/19/2005 29 47 672.25 -10.84 -1.59%
12/20/2005 10 66 672.78 0.53 0.08%
12/21/2005 51 25 679.74 6.96 1.03%
12/22/2005 58 18 684.08 4.34 0.64%
12/23/2005 33 43 686.44 2.36 0.34%
12/26/2005 ------ --------- 686.44 0.00 0.00%
12/27/2005 11 65 676.58 -9.86 -1.44%
12/28/2005 42 34 680.08 3.50 0.52%
12/29/2005 47 29 677.96 -2.12 -0.31%
12/30/2005 33 43 673.22 -4.74 -0.70%
Who Going Up The Leaderboard (Week 27), And Who Is Going Down The Leaderboard? And by how much? () mean negative or drop in the standings. - Means no movement in standings or unchanged movement from last week.
Place---Name---Movement In Placement
1 PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 7
2 CROCHNTR 5
3 C1001 4
4 KNOWLEDGEISKING 4
5 KSUAVE 4
6 EREHWONTIM 3
7 GUY 3
8 RESEARCHER59 3
9 TBONE 58X 3
10 10BAGGER 2
11 AVANDALAY05 2
12 BUCFAN33617 2
13 FINANCIALADVISOR 2
14 LARRYBAZ 2
15 YIELDDUDE 2
16 2MORROWSGAINS 1
17 ABH3VT 1
18 BOBWINS 1
19 CLIFFVB 1
20 COFFEE 221 1
21 DANLC 1
22 ESTIMATED PROPHET 1
23 LENTINMAN 1
24 MIKEO56 1
25 MOBEONEADOBE 1
26 MR. SHEEP 1
27 RAWNOC 1
28 RJSADEY 1
29 ROGUEDOLPHIN 1
30 SANDMAN777 1
31 VALUEMIND 1
32 ARNIE70 -
33 BEIGLEDOG -
34 BIGPIKE -
35 CWS9 -
36 DEATHTOTAXES -
37 ELOHSSA -
38 HOGFAN -
39 HOMERROMER -
40 JERRY IN CT. -
41 MIKES97707 -
42 NILES CRANE -
43 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 -
44 PC -
45 STANU78 -
46 STOCKPEEKER -
47 SWB173 -
48 THEALICEMAY -
49 TMCAL6 -
50 JIM WI (1)
51 KYK2001 (1)
52 PATENTLAWMEISTER (1)
53 RRAINMAN99 (1)
54 SHMOLTON (1)
55 STEVENRISK (1)
56 SWAMPBOOTS (1)
57 ZEN LUNATIC420 (1)
58 BBOTCS (2)
59 CLEVERROX (2)
60 ECHOS (2)
61 FOOTWEDGE (2)
62 GILEAD23 (2)
63 HWEB2 (2)
64 LINUSPOP (2)
65 MSGI (2)
66 PHIL (BULLRIDER) (2)
67 RRUFFF (2)
68 SSKILLZ1 (2)
69 JOEINIOWA (3)
70 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST (3)
71 SWANLINBAR (3)
72 WORTHYLION (3)
73 KIPP440 (4)
74 MRDMRD (4)
75 RMIWA (4)
76 SLEESTACK76 (4)
77 OTCBARGAINS (6)
Which Stocks Are Going Up The Leaderboard (Week 27), And Which stocks are Going Down The Leaderboard? And by how much? () mean negative or drop in the standings. - Means no movement in standings or unchanged movement from last week.
Place---Stock Symbol---Movement In Placement
1 TVOC.OB 30
2 NKBS 22
3 ERS 19
4 NTO 18
5 THK 18
6 GFRP.OB 17
7 CAMY.OB 16
8 HCAR.OB 16
9 LTON 15
10 MDF 15
11 ENER 14
12 JVA 14
13 XWG 14
14 EKCS.OB 12
15 DFNS.OB 11
16 LINN.OB 11
17 ARIS.OB 10
18 EPG 10
19 NXG 9
20 ORBT 9
21 CSPI 8
22 EXXA 8
23 GACF.OB 8
24 MAG 8
25 VSR 8
26 CALM 7
27 CCOM.OB 7
28 ANCX 6
29 BSM 6
30 ETEC.OB 6
31 TMFZ.OB 6
32 WSTF 6
33 CVV 5
34 EGY 5
35 HSTM 5
36 MPAD.OB 5
37 SPDV.OB 5
38 XEC 5
39 CPSX.OB 4
40 EMRI.OB 4
41 JADE 4
42 PXG 4
43 STS 4
44 CMNN.OB 3
45 DYSL.OB 3
46 EZEN.OB 3
47 FFH 3
48 JOB 3
49 LPSN 3
50 MCX 3
51 PHST.OB 3
52 SYS 3
53 ACRG.OB 2
54 AMOT 2
55 APES.OB 2
56 BHIP 2
57 CHAR.OB 2
58 EYDY.OB 2
59 GMOS.OB 2
60 ALY 1
61 AMLJ.OB 1
62 AOB 1
63 BTYH.OB 1
64 CGNW.OB 1
65 CXPI.OB 1
66 CXTI.OB 1
67 DGIT 1
68 DNDT.OB 1
69 ELTK 1
70 HPCO.OB 1
71 IDWK 1
72 LMIA 1
73 MFIC.OB 1
74 SYNA 1
75 VSYS.OB 1
76 ABRX -
77 ACET -
78 ALVR -
79 AMLS.OB -
80 AVSO.OB -
81 AWRCF.OB -
82 BPTR.OB -
83 FC -
84 IPT -
85 MKRS.OB -
86 PKZ -
87 RWC -
88 SGRP -
89 SPOP.OB -
90 SWTX.OB -
91 TCHC -
92 TGIS.OB -
93 TSTA.OB -
94 VPHM -
95 WHAI.OB -
96 ASPN.OB (1)
97 DRL (1)
98 ECGI (1)
99 FTK (1)
100 HOM (1)
101 HRBN.OB (1)
102 IDIB.OB (1)
103 IDSA (1)
104 IPII (1)
105 ITEX.OB (1)
106 KMA (1)
107 LBIX (1)
108 OVTI (1)
109 PDGE.OB (1)
110 RIO (1)
111 ROBE.OB (1)
112 STV (1)
113 URGI (1)
114 YIWA.OB (1)
115 CTIB (2)
116 CVU (2)
117 DWSN (2)
118 FPP (2)
119 FSTF (2)
120 GPOR.OB (2)
121 GV (2)
122 HAUP (2)
123 HURC (2)
124 KSWW.OB (2)
125 PIHC.OB (2)
126 PLCC (2)
127 SBUX (2)
128 SDCO.OB (2)
129 UAHC (2)
130 UBET (2)
131 ABMC (3)
132 ADGO.OB (3)
133 ALDA (3)
134 ASYS (3)
135 CBBT.OB (3)
136 CCEL.OB (3)
137 FONR (3)
138 GLMA.OB (3)
139 HSPR.OB (3)
140 NMKT.OB (3)
141 SMID.OB (3)
142 TASA.OB (3)
143 TMR (3)
144 TVIN (3)
145 CYD (4)
146 DAAT.OB (4)
147 ESCL (4)
148 IECE.OB (4)
149 MMRK.OB (4)
150 NRCNA.OB (4)
151 NTST (4)
152 RIMS.OB (4)
153 SYXI (4)
154 UCIA.OB (4)
155 AVEE.OB (5)
156 BTN (5)
157 CFK (5)
158 CPE (5)
159 DHB (5)
160 ETLT.OB (5)
161 IIG (5)
162 SYNX (5)
163 CESV (6)
164 CWBS (6)
165 PAM (6)
166 S (6)
167 SNG (6)
168 USOO.OB (6)
169 UTSI (6)
170 WPCS (6)
171 BGC (7)
172 CSTL (7)
173 DY (7)
174 GIGM (7)
175 MCZ (7)
176 PLUS (7)
177 TGA (7)
178 IAGX.OB (8)
179 JMIH.OB (8)
180 WMCO.OB (8)
181 DOC (9)
182 GW (9)
183 MFCO (9)
184 MIVA (9)
185 NMSS (9)
186 MVCO (10)
187 AFPC.OB (11)
188 FRGB (12)
189 ZYNX.OB (13)
190 CORG.OB (14)
191 SCLD (14)
192 SMTS (15)
193 AID (23)
194 ANII.OB (40)
Homer Blows Away CWS9:
Huh? Yeah, that's right.
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY?
Since November 8th, Homer Romer lost only 2% off his percentage gains & losses for PSL1. Since November 8th, CWS lost 47% off his percentage gains & losses for PSL1. Need I say more? Homer's hot, CW's not!
Len
VMC Contest Indexes (Week 27)
Note: All Indexes are equally weighted.
Top 25 Index: +25.72%
Top 74 Index: +23.99% (Stock Picked Twice Or More Index)
Top 194 Index: +22.40% (All Stocks Picked In Contest Index)
Average Portfolio Return:+28.26%
VMC Individual Stock Returns (Week 27)
Individual Stock Returns Commentary:
The Best performing stock in the contest was RWC up 248.10%, which was only picked by one stock picker. There were 115 stocks up, 1 stock unchanged, and 78 down in the contest, which basically means 59.54% of the stock, were up if you count a tie like I do as a ½ up and ½ down. There were 20/194 stocks up triple digits returns, which happen to mean 10.31% of the stock picked once in the contest was up at least 100%.
A lot has been made by Len, that one of the reason why a sheep like CWS9 won the contest was the unusual performance of the top 4, and he is right the top 4 have done extremely well. But is really that the reason why CWS9 won the contest, He really was helped the most by AOB & FPP, and that is a fact. It is important to note that even though our top picked stocks did better, by the way you would have to believe that would continue to some extent, the reason why they are picked more is because they are like more by the board as a collective, and I don’t think anyone made a smart bet betting against our top picks so my belief is our top pick will do well again in the second contest. But lets look at #’s.
---Only one person picked 11 out of the top 20 placed stocks. That is at a 55% clip, keep in mind around 62% of the stocks picked were only picked once. So I don’t believe that is unsustainable differences. I mean I have to believe there is a better chance of a top picked stock by the board performing better then a stock picked by one person, yet there isn’t a huge difference in the #’s where you might say this contest results were abnormal either.
---Only one of the top 4 stocks made it into the top 20, that being VPHM, the others did relatively well, but it important to note they really didn’t finish at the very top of the standings either in 22nd, 36th, 39th respectively.
Conclusions: So I believe this shows (That our top picked stocks), that the results (In Placement terms (Not percentage terms) are very sustainable). Now I didn’t think the Odds were in Favor of a sheep winning like CWS9 were good either, but I strongly believe the results were affected by having a significant # of Triple digit gainers, and yet no stock even crack +250%. There was not really a dominant stock in the contest, that really drastically outperformed every stock by a wide margin, and if these conditions present themselves again it wouldn't shock me if a sheep won the next contest as well, only there are a lot of other variables that could make the Sheep less or more effective (I really have no clue) If I had to guess I would say the rules could make a Sheep more effective, by making each stock more effective even if picked a lot, because someone could get out at a different price then the other contestant who picked the same stock, and that in my humble opinion could possibly increase the effectiveness of a top picked stocked if the contestant has good timing/bad timing of when to get out. So without further ado the info is below.
Place---Stock Symbol---% Return
1 RWC 248.10%
2 BTYH.OB 240.91%
3 HOM 229.41%
4 CXTI.OB 182.81%
5 LMIA 182.07%
6 FPP 177.82%
7 TGIS.OB 170.63%
8 VPHM 166.19%
9 AOB 159.41%
10 HRBN.OB 154.72%
11 TSTA.OB 151.97%
12 ELTK 138.89%
13 ROBE.OB 138.71%
14 AVSO.OB 136.36%
15 ALY 120.71%
16 STV 113.31%
17 CAMY.OB 108.43%
18 ITEX.OB 106.90%
19 BSM 104.00%
20 ANCX 103.57%
21 FTK 96.32%
22 CHAR.OB 95.38%
23 CFK 93.72%
24 HURC 93.11%
25 WPCS 91.05%
26 SMID.OB 90.63%
27 LPSN 83.33%
28 ENER 82.08%
29 KSWW.OB 75.00%
30 GPOR.OB 74.64%
31 MVCO 71.05%
32 URGI 70.78%
33 ESCL 69.71%
34 CMNN.OB 66.67%
35 NXG 64.86%
36 PDGE.OB 61.95%
37 ETLT.OB 60.00%
38 MPAD.OB 59.09%
39 ASPN.OB 58.82%
40 HPCO.OB 57.77%
41 CTIB 57.30%
42 WMCO.OB 52.14%
43 ASYS 51.17%
44 JADE 51.10%
45 PKZ 50.36%
46 JOB 46.92%
47 OVTI 46.87%
48 DYSL.OB 45.76%
49 DWSN 44.97%
50 CCOM.OB 43.84%
51 SMTS 42.41%
52 WSTF 41.43%
53 MCX 41.21%
54 RIO 40.51%
55 SYNX 40.31%
56 NTST 40.11%
57 CVV 39.90%
58 SYS 37.31%
59 ORBT 36.98%
60 NTO 35.10%
61 GIGM 33.18%
62 BGC 32.84%
63 TCHC 32.74%
64 LINN.OB 32.00%
65 CWBS 31.98%
66 LTON 30.90%
67 ABMC 30.59%
68 IAGX.OB 30.26%
69 ALDA 30.01%
70 CBBT.OB 30.00%
71 SNG 29.30%
72 GLMA.OB 28.00%
73 HAUP 27.69%
74 MAG 26.46%
75 EPG 25.00%
76 USOO.OB 24.53%
77 BTN 23.80%
78 TVOC.OB 23.73%
79 EGY 22.54%
80 GACF.OB 22.40%
81 FSTF 22.16%
82 NMSS 22.03%
83 MFCO 22.00%
84 PLUS 19.65%
85 CPE 19.42%
86 SPOP.OB 18.64%
87 EZEN.OB 17.56%
88 AVEE.OB 16.67%
89 SBUX 16.18%
90 CORG.OB 15.82%
91 SYNA 15.73%
92 GMOS.OB 15.00%
93 GV 14.67%
94 HCAR.OB 13.04%
95 EMRI.OB 12.61%
96 ERS 12.50%
97 CALM 12.23%
98 CVU 11.78%
99 UCIA.OB 11.15%
100 DY 11.06%
101 VSR 10.94%
102 XEC 10.54%
103 ACRG.OB 10.37%
104 GFRP.OB 9.09%
105 UAHC 9.09%
106 UTSI 7.61%
107 MIVA 6.68%
108 STS 5.74%
109 TASA.OB 5.33%
110 ZYNX.OB 4.44%
111 GW 4.32%
112 AID 3.18%
113 FRGB 2.12%
114 TVIN 1.78%
115 SDCO.OB 1.43%
116 EXXA 0.00%
117 AMLJ.OB -1.52%
118 DAAT.OB -2.08%
119 CCEL.OB -3.41%
120 TMFZ.OB -3.45%
121 IECE.OB -4.62%
122 UBET -4.83%
123 AMOT -5.66%
124 PLCC -5.67%
125 S -5.74%
126 MDF -6.25%
127 NRCNA.OB -6.25%
128 APES.OB -6.67%
129 KMA -7.65%
130 CXPI.OB -8.16%
131 PXG -8.81%
132 THK -9.62%
133 MMRK.OB -11.11%
134 ACET -12.03%
135 TMR -12.13%
136 FFH -13.64%
137 NKBS -14.22%
138 CSPI -14.34%
139 ARIS.OB -15.38%
140 CSTL -15.76%
141 ADGO.OB -16.08%
142 XWG -16.42%
143 CESV -16.47%
144 IPT -17.02%
145 FC -17.06%
146 SYXI -17.56%
147 AFPC.OB -17.62%
148 SPDV.OB -17.65%
149 JVA -17.72%
150 PIHC.OB -17.79%
151 RIMS.OB -18.18%
152 DOC -18.95%
153 CPSX.OB -19.23%
154 SCLD -20.47%
155 LBIX -21.31%
156 BHIP -21.42%
157 PAM -21.43%
158 PHST.OB -22.29%
159 TGA -22.54%
160 ETEC.OB -23.08%
161 IPII -23.57%
162 ALVR -24.96%
163 JMIH.OB -25.00%
164 IDWK -25.75%
165 DFNS.OB -30.21%
166 VSYS.OB -31.01%
167 ANII.OB -31.11%
168 EKCS.OB -31.14%
169 ECGI -31.25%
170 MKRS.OB -32.00%
171 MCZ -33.33%
172 EYDY.OB -34.07%
173 CYD -35.50%
174 DRL -35.91%
175 HSPR.OB -36.00%
176 IIG -37.74%
177 HSTM -39.95%
178 NMKT.OB -40.20%
179 IDSA -41.51%
180 FONR -43.33%
181 BPTR.OB -44.44%
182 DGIT -46.00%
183 MFIC.OB -46.00%
184 DHB -47.10%
185 SWTX.OB -53.08%
186 AWRCF.OB -54.13%
187 SGRP -58.09%
188 CGNW.OB -59.18%
189 IDIB.OB -60.86%
190 DNDT.OB -85.60%
191 YIWA.OB -87.50%
192 AMLS.OB -92.00%
193 ABRX -95.83%
194 WHAI.OB -98.71%
VMC Contest Standings (Week 27)
VMC Contest Standings Commentary:
First, I want to give congrats to CWS9, for a fantastic performance up a whopping 95.16% for six months. Secondly Mr. Sheep had a very solid performance finishing in 6th, and ECHOS was lucky enough to finish 7th, what can I say he has a great view. There were 65/77 contestants in positive territory, and 57 of them were up positive double-digit returns. So without further ado the info is below.
Place---Name---% Return
1 CWS9 95.16%
2 BIGPIKE 84.02%
3 NILES CRANE 81.11%
4 HOGFAN 71.64%
5 GUY 68.19%
6 MR. SHEEP 67.76%
7 ECHOS 66.20%
8 RRUFFF 64.79%
9 EREHWONTIM 63.68%
10 TMCAL6 61.62%
11 PHIL (BULLRIDER) 58.94%
12 10BAGGER 56.56%
13 BBOTCS 56.06%
14 BUCFAN33617 53.43%
15 MIKES97707 51.96%
16 MIKEO56 51.68%
17 KIPP440 50.65%
18 LENTINMAN 50.42%
19 BOBWINS 47.78%
20 GILEAD23 47.69%
21 CROCHNTR 46.88%
22 LARRYBAZ 46.69%
23 PC 44.83%
24 SKEPTICALOPTIMIST 42.45%
25 JOEINIOWA 41.57%
26 DANLC 41.32%
27 CLEVERROX 41.30%
28 NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 39.42%
29 ELOHSSA 37.31%
30 STANU78 36.80%
31 KNOWLEDGEISKING 35.66%
32 COFFEE 221 34.94%
33 RAWNOC 34.39%
34 LINUSPOP 33.99%
35 MRDMRD 30.74%
36 RJSADEY 29.41%
37 KYK2001 28.55%
38 TBONE 58X 28.21%
39 PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 26.64%
40 MSGI 25.09%
41 VALUEMIND 24.52%
42 WORTHYLION 24.15%
43 ROGUEDOLPHIN 24.15%
44 SLEESTACK76 22.73%
45 AVANDALAY05 22.09%
46 PATENTLAWMEISTER 21.96%
47 RMIWA 21.89%
48 CLIFFVB 20.67%
49 KSUAVE 19.96%
50 SWB173 17.25%
51 MOBEONEADOBE 16.68%
52 ZEN LUNATIC420 16.11%
53 RESEARCHER59 15.70%
54 OTCBARGAINS 15.38%
55 FINANCIALADVISOR 13.10%
56 SSKILLZ1 12.00%
57 FOOTWEDGE 11.26%
58 2MORROWSGAINS 8.18%
59 ABH3VT 7.01%
60 HWEB2 5.44%
61 ESTIMATED PROPHET 2.73%
62 STEVENRISK 2.60%
63 ARNIE70 0.54%
64 THEALICEMAY 0.54%
65 YIELDDUDE 0.12%
66 C1001 -1.42%
67 SWAMPBOOTS -1.81%
68 SWANLINBAR -2.07%
69 JIM WI -2.09%
70 SHMOLTON -5.38%
71 BEIGLEDOG -6.12%
72 STOCKPEEKER -7.10%
73 JERRY IN CT. -9.58%
74 DEATHTOTAXES -11.67%
75 SANDMAN777 -26.30%
76 RRAINMAN99 -33.86%
77 HOMERROMER -38.54%
Who's At New Highs & Whos At New Lows?---Week 27
Table 1: Record Highs: (Tied At Or At New Record Highs)
1 CWS9
2 BIGPIKE
Table 2: Record Lows (Tied At Or At New Record Lows)
72 STOCKPEEKER
77 HOMERROMER
On 2nd thought, I'm back for PSL2 & encourage everyone to participate as well... all fellow PSL1 participants + new/other VMC investor...
In addition to fun, it's a very interesting learning experience.. shouldn't take much time either (except for Mr Sskillz)
And I would suggest to keep the rule easy and simple.
Thanks bbotc, Sskillz, Len and Bob.
Stan
stanu78: Hey, you've done part of the work already if you stick with MDF, as I probably will do. You could make your picks and then check back in a couple of months when you have more time. As of yesterday, you were 29th out of field of more than 60. That is pretty darn good.
It won't be the same without you.
bbotc, I didn't see this post earlier.. have fun with PSL 2...
I might skip the second one. I have so much fun.. too much fun probably...
I need to focus on some other things for a couple months..
All the best all..
Stan
good luck bbotc. I'm done with the contest too. and I'm also long on MDF.
It's been fun while it last..
Stan
The funniest part is watching the guy who is right behind Mr. Sheep stutter while he is talking.
"But....but....Seriously, I...I... don't even own a...a...a pair of rubber boots."
I'm excited about the new contest. This morning, I wasn't even going to participate because VPHM is down. But heck, I have had a ton of fun with this contest over the past 6 months. I highly recommended it to you as your 2006 spring tonic. I'm especially glad that I participated because if I hadn't been a player, I probably wouldn't have been as interested in knowing which stocks were moving up the board. With the mid-week update, this contest has helped me spot trends that can make us money.
If you are sitting on the fence, I recommend jumping off and participating. Even if you don't do well, you can still have some fun watching someone you don't like drop in ranking. LOL!! Seriously, it helps you focus on stocks that are moving.
I can still win this thing, if I can just convince Bill Gates to do some serious 'window dressing' on my pick6 ! Unfortunately the operator at Microsoft Headquarters refuses to put me through to him .... she won't buy my story that I'm his long lost cousin from North Dakota.
hey! Maybe I could spend some bucks on whai.pk!! Wonder how much it would cost to drive it back to $3??? LOL! Never mind!
Bobwins
It all comes down to who is willing to paint the tape the most. How much is it worth to win?
Uncle......my pick six is doing worst than normal today. All down except for a .01 rise in thk. I concede! Unless whai comes out with a PR and says it was all a mistake and the CEO is really a Phi Betta Kappa and didn't fiddle with the books after all!!! I'm sure they can get that out in time to help the stock price!!!! Or maybe I could start a furious rumor mill and spam posting effort!!! LOL!
Bobwins
No more contests for me. On the last day, my one hope of keeping the #11 spot let's me down--VPHM. And my dark horse is still dark--MDF. Had a lot of fun, though.
My focus for 2006 will be getting rich. Owning no more than 30 stocks, maybe 20 even, and taking bigger positions. Then, I roll the after-tax profits into CANROY's and other fixed income investments, including some conservative stocks, and walk away.
I plan to make $1M in 2006, using $100K as the seed money.
I will need a bull market, or at least 10-12 good rallys. The precondition for this quest, of course, is a fairly robust stock market. No can do in a big recession. GM is on the brink and new hourse starts are slowing. 2006 is going to be a very interesting year.
Len, remember that King Bob has WHAI and is still in 20th place, which is remarkable. Without WHAI, he would be way up there. You should each throw out your best and worst and see where you would be.
Bobwins vs Lentinman:
Congratulations to all you other 18 above us, yeah, yeah. Big deal. Who cares.
Now let's get down to business. I don't want to give anyone the idea that I'm competing against the King himself, but in the last 60 market days, I have been ahead of him 30 times; he has been ahead of me 30 times; and there have been 14 lead changes. I led yesterday; he led the day before; I led the day before that. We are only 1.19% apart. I'm #19 at 50.96 and he is #20 at 49.77. It all comes down to today. Thank God we are not deciding it on the basketball court!
Len
Len--I think you should constrain the contest to whatever is sufficiently easy for you to administer!
I don't really care--I was just pointing out some reasons why you might expect a little more variance under the PSL2 rules.
Nsom:
That is a good point. The rules are theoretically designed to help people make better returns. So, there are reasons the highest stock could be higher and reasons the highest stock could be lower. Maybe I should run a survey and let people decide what the upper limit should be for the program - although that sounds like work - something I don't need much more of. I think I'm going to presume the average to be 20% for the 3.5 months, but would happily listen to any opinions on that.
Len
1 95.16% CWS9 (See Champions Board) http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=4067 2 84.02% BIGPIKE 3 81.11% NILES CRANE 4 71.64% HOGFAN 5 68.19% GUY 6 67.76% MR. SHEEP 7 66.20% ECHOS 8 64.79% RRUFFF 9 63.68% EREHWONTIM 10 61.62% TMCAL6 11 58.94% PHIL (BULLRIDER) 12 56.56% 10BAGGER 13 56.06% BBOTCS 14 53.43% BUCFAN33617 15 51.96% MIKES97707 16 51.68% MIKEO56 17 50.65% KIPP440 18 50.42% LENTINMAN 19 47.78% BOBWINS 20 47.69% GILEAD23 21 46.88% CROCHNTR 22 46.69% LARRYBAZ 23 44.83% PC 24 42.45% SKEPTICALOPTIMIST 25 41.57% JOEINIOWA 26 41.32% DANLC 27 41.20% CLEVERROX 28 39.42% NUTSABOUTGOLF2001 29 37.31% ELOHSSA 30 36.80% STANU78 31 35.66% KNOWLEDGEISKING 32 34.94% COFFEE 221 33 34.39% RAWNOC 34 33.99% LINUSPOP 35 30.74% MRDMRD 36 29.41% RJSADEY 37 28.55% KYK2001 38 28.21% TBONE 58X 39 26.64% PLOP PLOP FIZZ FIZZ 40 25.09% MSGI 41 24.52% VALUEMIND 42 24.15% WORTHYLION 43 24.15% ROGUEDOLPHIN 44 22.73% SLEESTACK76 45 22.09% AVANDALAY05 46 21.96% PATENTLAWMEISTER 47 21.89% RMIWA 48 20.67% CLIFFVB 49 19.96% KSUAVE 50 17.25% SWB173 51 16.68% MOBEONEADOBE 52 16.11% ZEN LUNATIC420 53 15.70% RESEARCHER59 54 15.38% OTCBARGAINS 55 13.10% FINANCIALADVISOR 56 12.00% SSKILLZ1 57 11.26% FOOTWEDGE 58 08.18% 2MORROWSGAINS 59 07.01% ABH3VT 60 05.44% HWEB2 61 02.73% ESTIMATED PROPHET 62 02.60% STEVENRISK 63 00.54% ARNIE70 64 00.54% THEALICEMAY 65 00.12% YIELDDUDE 66 -01.42% C1001 67 -01.81% SWAMPBOOTS 68 -02.07% SWANLINBAR 69 -02.09% JIM WI 70 -05.38% SHMOLTON 71 -06.12% BEIGLEDOG 72 -07.10% STOCKPEEKER 73 -09.58% JERRY IN CT. 74 -11.67% DEATHTOTAXES 75 -26.30% SANDMAN777 76 -33.86% RRAINMAN99 77 -38.54% HOMERROMERHAD ALL 6 STOCKS POSITIVE: 10 Bagger Skeptical Optimist FINAL STOCK STANDINGS
1 RWC 248.10%2 BTYH.OB 240.91% 3 HOM 229.41% 4 CXTI.OB 182.81% 5 LMIA 182.07% 6 FPP 177.82% 7 TGIS.OB 170.63% 8 VPHM 166.19% 9 AOB 159.41% 10 HRBN.OB 154.72% 11 TSTA.OB 151.97% 12 ELTK 138.89% 13 ROBE.OB 138.71% 14 AVSO.OB 136.36% 15 ALY 120.71% 16 STV 113.31% 17 CAMY.OB 108.43% 18 ITEX.OB 106.90% 19 BSM 104.00% 20 ANCX 103.57% 21 FTK 96.32% 22 CHAR.OB 95.38% 23 CFK 93.72% 24 HURC 93.11% 25 WPCS 91.05% 26 SMID.OB 90.63% 27 LPSN 83.33% 28 ENER 82.08% 29 KSWW.OB 75.00% 30 GPOR.OB 74.64% 31 MVCO 71.05% 32 URGI 70.78% 33 ESCL 69.71% 34 CMNN.OB 66.67% 35 NXG 64.86% 36 PDGE.OB 61.95% 37 ETLT.OB 60.00% 38 MPAD.OB 59.09% 39 ASPN.OB 58.82% 40 HPCO.OB 57.77% 41 CTIB 57.30% 42 WMCO.OB 52.14% 43 ASYS 51.17% 44 JADE 51.10% 45 PKZ 50.36% 46 JOB 46.92% 47 OVTI 46.87% 48 DYSL.OB 45.76% 49 DWSN 44.97% 50 CCOM.OB 43.84% 51 SMTS 42.41% 52 WSTF 41.43% 53 MCX 41.21% 54 RIO 40.51% 55 SYNX 40.31% 56 NTST 40.11% 57 CVV 39.90% 58 SYS 37.31% 59 ORBT 36.98% 60 NTO 35.10% 61 GIGM 33.18% 62 BGC 32.84% 63 TCHC 32.74% 64 LINN.OB 32.00% 65 CWBS 31.98% 66 LTON 30.90% 67 ABMC 30.59% 68 IAGX.OB 30.26% 69 ALDA 30.01% 70 CBBT.OB 30.00% 71 SNG 29.30% 72 GLMA.OB 28.00% 73 HAUP 27.69% 74 MAG 26.46% 75 EPG 25.00% 76 USOO.OB 24.53% 77 BTN 23.80% 78 TVOC.OB 23.73% 79 EGY 22.54% 80 GACF.OB 22.40% 81 FSTF 22.16% 82 NMSS 22.03% 83 MFCO 22.00% 84 PLUS 19.65% 85 CPE 19.42% 86 SPOP.OB 18.64% 87 EZEN.OB 17.56% 88 AVEE.OB 16.67% 89 SBUX 16.18% 90 CORG.OB 15.82% 91 SYNA 15.73% 92 GMOS.OB 15.00% 93 GV 14.67% 94 HCAR.OB 13.04% 95 EMRI.OB 12.61% 96 ERS 12.50% 97 CALM 12.23% 98 CVU 11.78% 99 UCIA.OB 11.15% 100 DY 11.06% 101 VSR 10.94% 102 XEC 10.54% 103 ACRG.OB 10.37% 104 GFRP.OB 9.09% 105 UAHC 9.09% 106 UTSI 7.61% 107 MIVA 6.68% 108 STS 5.74% 109 TASA.OB 5.33% 110 ZYNX.OB 4.44% 111 GW 4.32% 112 AID 3.18% 113 FRGB 2.12% 114 TVIN 1.78% 115 SDCO.OB 1.43% 116 EXXA 0.00% 117 AMLJ.OB -1.52% 118 DAAT.OB -2.08% 119 CCEL.OB -3.41% 120 TMFZ.OB -3.45% 121 IECE.OB -4.62% 122 UBET -4.83% 123 AMOT -5.66% 124 PLCC -5.67% 125 S -5.74% 126 MDF -6.25% 127 NRCNA.OB -6.25% 128 APES.OB -6.67% 129 KMA -7.65% 130 CXPI.OB -8.16% 131 PXG -8.81% 132 THK -9.62% 133 MMRK.OB -11.11% 134 ACET -12.03% 135 TMR -12.13% 136 FFH -13.64% 137 NKBS -14.22% 138 CSPI -14.34% 139 ARIS.OB -15.38% 140 CSTL -15.76% 141 ADGO.OB -16.08% 142 XWG -16.42% 143 CESV -16.47% 144 IPT -17.02% 145 FC -17.06% 146 SYXI -17.56% 147 AFPC.OB -17.62% 148 SPDV.OB -17.65% 149 JVA -17.72% 150 PIHC.OB -17.79% 151 RIMS.OB -18.18% 152 DOC -18.95% 153 CPSX.OB -19.23% 154 SCLD -20.47% 155 LBIX -21.31% 156 BHIP -21.42% 157 PAM -21.43% 158 PHST.OB -22.29% 159 TGA -22.54% 160 ETEC.OB -23.08% 161 IPII -23.57% 162 ALVR -24.96% 163 JMIH.OB -25.00% 164 IDWK -25.75% 165 DFNS.OB -30.21% 166 VSYS.OB -31.01% 167 ANII.OB -31.11% 168 EKCS.OB -31.14% 169 ECGI -31.25% 170 MKRS.OB -32.00% 171 MCZ -33.33% 172 EYDY.OB -34.07% 173 CYD -35.50% 174 DRL -35.91% 175 HSPR.OB -36.00% 176 IIG -37.74% 177 HSTM -39.95% 178 NMKT.OB -40.20% 179 IDSA -41.51% 180 FONR -43.33% 181 BPTR.OB -44.44% 182 DGIT -46.00% 183 MFIC.OB -46.00% 184 DHB -47.10% 185 SWTX.OB -53.08% 186 AWRCF.OB-54.13% 187 SGRP -58.09% 188 CGNW.OB -59.18% 189 IDIB.OB -60.86% 190 DNDT.OB -85.60% 191 YIWA.OB -87.50% 192 AMLS.OB -92.00% 193 ABRX -95.83% 194 WHAI.OB -98.71%
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