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                                                                                                                       VALUE INVESTING-WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY



Life time of Investing opportunity - comparison with  limited 20 holes in a punch card (Buffett Way)



When opportunity comes within your strike zone/buying zone ONLY then invest(Science Of hitting-Ted Williams)


                                                                                                               INVESTMENT IS A SCIENCE -NOT ART


Historical PE ratio and S&P 500






 This board discuss beaten down turn-around companies. Discuss technical and fundamental analysis.

Trading timeframe mid-term(3-4 months) and Longterm 6+months

I believe investment as a science(DD with Fundamental and Technical Analysis) and continuous education.  Invest in  business you easily understand. I don't beleve in pump and dump schemes. 

Top down Approach-  Market Geometry

Monthly trends has more influence than weekly -daily trends. Do not trade against long term trends unless you are day-trading or flipping.  If  you invest in bigboard stock

Do trend analysis of DOW and S&P ,Nasdaq,Sector Trend(The sector that stock belongs)  and if the trend is in your favor trade with the trend of market indexes and sector.  DO NOT use margin when you trade else you might have to sell at the wrong time and loose all your money

Technical Analysis Resources must see

Stock Analyzer's video





Chart Lesson -Pump & dump


Risk vs Reward lesson by Clay Trader(Very Important)


 Wealth University Lessons


Boards that teach very good Technical Analysis






Pincher Play

MrBigz Pincher Video Lesson


Warren Buffett's investment basics video(Must SEE)


Recommended Reading List(Must Read)

http://stockvision.org/books/Edwin_Lefevre-Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator-EN.pdf (must read)
http://stockedu.info/education/Candlestick_Charting.pdf ( must read)
http://www.esnips.com/doc/39960859-05b5-4078-a22a-648846815780/Elder--Alexander---Trading-for-a-Living Read)





Margin of Safety




Geometry of Markets




Fibonnaci Pattern Recognition


Geometry of Stock Market Profits



Candle stick,Three Line Break Chart, Renko,kagi charts -How to read



Very Useful candle charting VIDEO:  http://powerhost.powerstream.net/008/00102/nf/candles32008.wmv

 Informed Trading lessons


PE ratio Analysis:(must see)

 If you look at this data..this market is anomaly..ALmost everything is a bargain. Look at the average PE ratio of S&P 500
and Dow Jones..Any PE ratio below 10 is considered bargain.


Important Ratios

         Liquidity Ratios: the company's ability to meet day-to-day operating expenses and satisfy short-term obligations as they become due
Current A
         Leverage Ratios: amount of debt used by the company
         Profitability Ratios: measures how successful the company is at creating profits
         Common Stock Ratios: converts key financial information into per-share basis to simplify financial analysis
         Current Ratio: how many dollars of short-term assets are available for every dollar of short-term liabilities owed
             Current Ratio=      Current Assets/Current liabilities
         Higher ratio: better
         Lower ratio: worse
         Net Working Capital: how many dollars of working capital are available to pay bills and grow the business
   Net Working Capital = Current Assets - Current liabilities
         Higher amounts: better
         Lower amounts: worse
         Activity Ratios: how well the company is managing
its assets
Account receivable turnover = Annual Sales / Accounts receivable
  Higher ratio = better
  lower ratio = worse
 Inventory Turnover How qucikly the company selling its inventory(can also use annual COGS)
 Inventory turnover = Annual sales/ Invenotry
 Higher ratio = better
lower ratio = worse
Total Asset Turnover : How efficiently the company is using its assets to support sales
Total asset turnover = Annual sales /Total assets
 Higher ratio = better
lower ratio = worse
Leverage Ratios
Debt-Equity Ratio: How much debt the company is using to support its business to how much stockholders equity it is using to support
its business
Debt-equity ratio = Long-term debt / stockholders equity
Higher ratio: more risk
lower ratio: less risk
Profitability Ratio:
Net Profit margin: Amount of profit earned from sales and other operations
Net profit margin = Net profit after taxes / Total revenue
Higher ratio = better
lower ratio = worse
Book Value per share: difference between assets and liabilities per share
Book value per share = Common stockholders equity / Number of common share outstanding

Fundamental Analysis: Some useful methods worked in the past by IBD(Investor Business Daily)


The seven parts of the mnemonic are as follows:

  • C stands for Current Earnings. Per share, current earnings should be up to 25%. Additionally, if earnings are accelerating in recent quarters, this is a positive prognostic sign.
  • A stands for Annual earnings, which should be up 25% or more in each of the last three years. Annual returns on equity should be 17% or more
  • N stands for New product or service, which refers to the idea that a company should have a new basic idea that fuels the earnings growth seen in the first two parts of the mnemonic. This product is what allows the stock to emerge from a proper chart pattern of its past earnings to allow it to continue to grow and achieve a new high for pricing. A notable example of this is be Apple Computer's iPod.
  • S stands for Supply and demand. An index of a stock's demand can be seen by the trading volume of the stock, particularly during price increases.
  • L stands for Leader or laggard? O'Neil suggests buying "the leading leading stock in a leading industry". This somewhat qualitative measurement can be more objectively measured by the Relative Price Strength Rating (RPSR) of the stock, an index designed to measure the price of stock over the past 12 months in comparison to the rest of the market based on the S&P 500 or the TSE 300 over a set period of time. [3]
  • I stands for Institutional sponsorship, which refers to the ownership of the stock by mutual funds, particularly in recent quarters. A quantitative measure here is the Accumulation/Distribution Rating, which is a gauge of mutual fund activity in a particular stock.
  • M stands for Market indexes, particularly the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. During the time of investment, O'Neil prefers investing during times of definite uptrends of these three indices, as three out of four stocks tend to follow the general market pattern.

CAN SLIM Performance

According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), between January 1998 and June 2005, market portfolios traded according to CANSLIM principles gained an average of 849.1%, almost forty times greater than the S&P 500 increase of 22.8%, with gains made every year regardless of bull or bear market performance.[4]

 Peter Lynch approach


CFA Level 1 - Calculating Basic and Fully Diluted EPS in a Complex Capital Structure

There are some basic rules for calculating basic and fully diluted ESP in a complex capital structure. The basic ESP is calculated in the same fashion as it is in a simple capital structure.

Basic and fully diluted EPS are calculated for each component of income: income from continuing operations, income before extraordinary items or changes in accounting principle, and net income.

To calculate fully diluted EPS:

Diluted EPS = [(net income - preferred dividend) / weighted average number of shares outstanding - impact of convertible securities - impact of options, warrants and other dilutive securities]

Other form: 
(net income - preferred dividends) + convertible preferred dividend + (convertible debt interest * (1-t))

Divided by

weighted average shares + shares from conversion of convertible preferred shares + shares from conversion of convertible debt + shares issuable from stock options.

To understand this complex calculation we will look at each possibility:

If the company has convertible bonds, use the if-converted method:

1.Treat conversion as occurring at the beginning of the year or at issuance date, if it occurred during the year (additive to denominator).
2.Eliminate related interest expense, net of tax (additive to numerator).

If the company has convertible preferred stock, use the if-converted method:

1. Eliminate preferred dividend from numerator (decrease numerator). 
2. Treat conversion as occurring at the beginning of the year or at issuance date, if it occurred during the year (additive to denominator). Furthermore, use the most advantageous conversion rate available to the holder of the security. 

Options and warrants use the treasury-stock method:

1.Assume that exercise occurred at the beginning of the year or issue date, if it occurs during the year.
2.Assume that proceeds are used to purchase common stock for treasury stock.
3.If exercise price < market price of stock, dilution occurs.
4.If exercise price > market price, securities are anti-dilative and can be ignored in the diluted EPS calculation.


Company ABC has: 

- Net income of $2m and 2m weighted average number of shares outstanding for the accounting period.
Bonds convertible to common stock worth $50,000: 50 at $1,000, with an interest of 12%. They are convertible to 1,000 shares of common stock.
- A total of 1,000 convertible preferred stock paying a dividend of 10% and convertible to 2,000 shares of common stock, with a par of $100 per preferred stock.
- A total of 2,000 stock options outstanding, 1,000 of which were issued with an exercise price of $10 and the other 1,000 of which have an exercise price of $50. Each stock option is convertible to 
  10 common stocks.

- A tax rate of 40%.
- Stock whose average trading price is $20 per share.

Calculate the fully diluted EPS

1.Convertible debt

Assume conversion:

If the debt is converted, the company would have to issue an additional 50,000 (50*1,000) common stock. As a result the WASO would increase to 2,050,000.

Since the debt would be converted, no interest would have to be paid. Interest was $6,000 per annum. The interest expense would flow through to common stockholders but not before the IRS get a portion of it. So net of taxes the company would have generated an additional $3,600 [(6,000*(1-40%)] in net income.

Adjusted WASO: 2,050,000
Adjusted net income: $2,003,600

2.Convertible preferred stock

Assume conversion:

If the stock is converted the company would have to issue an additional 2,000 shares of common stock. As a result the WASO would increase to 2,052,000.

Since the preferred dividend would no longer be issued the company would not have to pay $1,000 dividends (100*1,000*10%). Since dividends are not tax deductible, there are no tax implications. So the company would have generated an additional $1,000 in net income attributable to common stockholders.

Adjusted WASO: 2,050,000
Adjusted net income: $2,003,600
Preferred dividend is reduced to zero

3.Stock options

If-converted method:

Say there are 1,000 stock options in the money (exercise price < market price of stock). The holders of the stock option can convert their options into stock for a profit at any point and time.

Say 1,000 stock options are out of the money (exercise price > market price of stock). The holders of the stock option would not convert their options, because it would be cheaper to purchase the stock on the open market.

The out-of-the-money option can be ignored. The in-the-money options need to be accounted for.

Here is how in-the-money options are accounted for:

1)Calculate the amount raised through the exercise of options:

         1000 * 10 *$10 = $100,000

2)Calculate the number of the common shares that can be repurchased using the amount raised through the exercise of options (found in step #1):

         $100,000 / 20 = 5,000

3)Calculate number of common shares created by the exercise of the stock options:

         1000 * 10 = 10,000

4)Find the net number by which the number of new common shares, created as result of the stock options exercised (found in step #3), exceed the number of common shares repurchased at the market price with proceeds received from the exercise of the options (found in step #2):

         10,000 - 5,000 = 5,000

 5) Find the total number of shares if the stock options are exercised: add weighted average number of shares to what you found in step #4:

         2,052,000 + 5,000 = 2,057,000

Fully diluted EPS= 2,000,000 + 3,600 - 6,000 + 6,000  2,003,600 = 0.974
2,000,000 +50,000 + 2,000 +5,000     2,057,000

Presentation and disclosure

Simple capital structure
a. Basic EPS is presented for income from continuing operations, income before extraordinary items or change in accounting principle, and net income.
b. Reported for all accounting periods presented
c. Prior-period EPS is restated for any prior-period adjustments.
d. Footnotes are required for stock splits and stock dividends.

Complex capital structure
a. Basic and fully diluted EPS are presented for income from continuing operations, income before extraordinary items or change in accounting principle, and net income.
b. Reported for all accounting periods presented
c. Prior-period EPS is restated for any prior-period adjustments.
d. Footnotes are required for diluted EPS.


 Financlal Statement Analysis


1. Price-to-Sales

The price-to-sales ratio is comparing the price of a stock to the company's sales for that year. For example, WalMart's stock market value is about $250 billion, while sales over the last year were about $200 billion. So WalMart is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.25. This means it's cheaper than most stocks today, but still expensive by historical standards.

  • 0.86 Historical Performance Average of the Stock Market
  • 6.52 Current Value of the Stock Market

2. Price-to-Book Value

The price-to-book value ratio is simple as well. Book value is synonymous with "net worth" which is assets minus debts (or what you've got minus what you owe). WalMart's share price is about $60, but it's book value is only $8. So WalMart's price-to-book ratio is about 7.5?expensive by any measure.

  • 1.94 Historical Performance Average of the Stock Market
  • 4.88 Current Value of the Stock Market



My Noteable picks

QTM  1200+%


ASTG  2400+%


CENX 100%


BZ SAH DAN NOBL up 2000%, 50%+


JNPR 110%+ in 60 days-ongoing play


CNOA 70% in 2 weeks


PIR  2000%!!!!!


MDFI 100%-called at .0006 reached .0014 1 day gain




My prediction DOW Bottom and GANN 67 year Cycle


 Margin of Safety -Out of print book(valued $1000)-Summary


If you have'nt read Seth Klarman book Margin of Safety(out of print)...here are some notes..

AI(Artificial Intelligence) and Market Forecasting


Market Geometry Ellipses and TORUS


Naked Short Selling (Must See)


Naked shorting Loopholes


volume Lessons-MKA



"I use the three indicators below to track the sentiment of the different sectors of  investors in a stock, their actions on the chart coincide with the actions within these three different sectors of investors/traders: 

First... On Balance Volume is the one that tracks insider and registered shareholder 
money going in and out of the stock, the OBV indicator will go down when different SEC forms are filed showing dilution by insiders. 

Second ... Accumulation/Distribution tracks the individual retail 
shareholder. many times Accum/Dist will go up while the PPS of a stock is going lower and lower; also while the PPS is going lower, investors on the message board for the stock, will be talking about buying, and how many shares they hold. 

Thirdly... Chaikin Oscillator controls the PPS more than the other two.... the PPS will tank when this indicator goes down, even if OBV and Accum/Dist are going up, this fact alone makes know this indicator tracks "the shares" that rule the stock (MMs in other words). OBV, and Accum/Dist can be going up, but until ChiOsc goes up the PPS will stay lower, or continue going down..... Chiosc can go up before the PPS goes up, indicating that MMs are accumulating before a run. 

OBV = Insiders, big share holder investors(institutional, etc) and Registered shareholders (that is; individual shareholders with more than 5% holdings in the company). 

Accum/Dist = over the counter individual Retail shareholders with less than 5% of the 
company stock

ChiOsc = those who control the stock PPS and chart actions, that being MMs. 

These three technical indicators have explanations on StockCharts.com and other places, that tell what they do technically, but they also work to track the buy/sell sentiment of the different sectors of shareholders. "







Fear Index


DOW Monthly chart -shows ADX and PPO about to pinch. All other indicators show recovery on the way- We should break above 8200 by End of May(Three line break chart) I expect short term retracement . Accumulation is strong, We have hammer and white candle which called a morning start -a bullish reversal indicator.

















                                                                                                                                                             LAW OF ONE 

General Exercises

Questioner: could you state some of the practices or exercises to perform to produce an acceleration toward the Law of One?

Ra: I am Ra.

Exercise One. This is the most nearly centered and useable within your illusion complex. The moment contains love. That is the lesson/goal of this illusion or density. The exercise is to consciously see that love in awareness and understanding distortions. The first attempt is the cornerstone. Upon this choosing rests the remainder of the life-experience of an entity. The second seeking of love within the moment begins the addition. The third seeking empowers the second, the fourth powering or doubling the third. As with the previous type of empowerment, there will be some loss of power due to flaws within the seeking in the distortion of insincerity. However, the conscious statement of self to self of the desire to seek love is so central an act of will that, as before, the loss of power due to this friction is inconsequential.

Exercise Two. The universe is one being. When a mind/body/spirit complex views another mind/body/spirit complex, see the Creator. This is an helpful exercise.

Exercise Three. Gaze within a mirror. See the Creator.

Exercise Four. Gaze at the creation which lies about the mind/body/spirit complex of each entity. See the Creator.

The foundation or prerequisite of these exercises is a predilection towards what may be called meditation, contemplation, or prayer. With this attitude, these exercises can be processed. Without it, the data will not sink down into the roots of the tree of mind, thus enabling and ennobling the body and touching the spirit.






Decision Tree Analysis

Choosing Between Options
by Projecting Likely Outcomes

Decision Trees are useful tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action.

They provide a highly effective structure within which you can explore options, and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action.

This makes them particularly useful for choosing between different strategies, projects or investment opportunities, particularly when your resources are limited.

How to Use the Tool

You start a Decision Tree with a decision that you need to make. Draw a small square to represent this on the left hand side of a large piece of paper, half way down the page.

From this box draw out lines towards the right for each possible solution, and write a short description of the solution along the line. Keep the lines apart as far as possible so that you can expand your thoughts.

At the end of each line, consider the results. If the result of taking that decision is uncertain, draw a small circle. If the result is another decision that you need to make, draw another square. Squares represent decisions, and circles represent uncertain outcomes. Write the decision or factor above the square or circle. If you have completed the solution at the end of the line, just leave it blank.

Starting from the new decision squares on your diagram, draw out lines representing the options that you could select. From the circles draw lines representing possible outcomes. Again make a brief note on the line saying what it means. Keep on doing this until you have drawn out as many of the possible outcomes and decisions as you can see leading on from the original decisions.

An example of the sort of thing you will end up with is shown in Figure 1:

Once you have done this, review your tree diagram. Challenge each square and circle to see if there are any solutions or outcomes you have not considered. If there are, draw them in. If necessary, redraft your tree if parts of it are too congested or untidy. You should now have a good understanding of the range of possible outcomes of your decisions.

Evaluating Your Decision Tree

Now you are ready to evaluate the decision tree. This is where you can work out which option has the greatest worth to you. Start by assigning a cash value or score to each possible outcome. Make your best assessment of how much you think it would be worth to you if that outcome came about.

Next look at each circle (representing an uncertainty point) and estimate the probability of each outcome. If you use percentages, the total must come to 100% at each circle. If you use fractions, these must add up to 1. If you have data on past events you may be able to make rigorous estimates of the probabilities. Otherwise write down your best guess.

This will give you a tree like the one shown in Figure 2:

Calculating Tree Values

Once you have worked out the value of the outcomes, and have assessed the probability of the outcomes of uncertainty, it is time to start calculating the values that will help you make your decision.

Start on the right hand side of the decision tree, and work back towards the left. As you complete a set of calculations on a node (decision square or uncertainty circle), all you need to do is to record the result. You can ignore all the calculations that lead to that result from then on.

Calculating The Value of Uncertain Outcome Nodes

Where you are calculating the value of uncertain outcomes (circles on the diagram), do this by multiplying the value of the outcomes by their probability. The total for that node of the tree is the total of these values.

In the example in Figure 2, the value for 'new product, thorough development' is:

0.4 (probability good outcome) x $1,000,000 (value) =
0.4 (probability moderate outcome) x £50,000 (value) =
0.2 (probability poor outcome) x £2,000 (value) =

Figure 3 shows the calculation of uncertain outcome nodes:

Note that the values calculated for each node are shown in the boxes.

Calculating the Value of Decision Nodes

When you are evaluating a decision node, write down the cost of each option along each decision line. Then subtract the cost from the outcome value that you have already calculated. This will give you a value that represents the benefit of that decision.

Note that amounts already spent do not count for this analysis - these are 'sunk costs' and (despite the emotional cost) should not be factored into the decision.

When you have calculated these decision benefits, choose the option that has the largest benefit, and take that as the decision made. This is the value of that decision node.

Figure 4 shows this calculation of decision nodes in our example:

Decision Tree Diagram


In this example, the benefit we previously calculated for 'new product, thorough development' was $420,400. We estimate the future cost of this approach as $150,000. This gives a net benefit of $270,400.

The net benefit of 'new product, rapid development' was $31,400. On this branch we therefore choose the most valuable option, 'new product, thorough development', and allocate this value to the decision node.


By applying this technique we can see that the best option is to develop a new product. It is worth much more to us to take our time and get the product right, than to rush the product to market. And it's better just to improve our existing products than to botch a new product, even though it costs us less.

Key Points

Decision trees provide an effective method of decision making because they:

  • Clearly lay out the problem so that all options can be challenged.
  • Allow us to analyze the possible consequences of a decision fully.
  • Provide a framework to quantify the values of outcomes and the probabilities of achieving them.
  • Help us to make the best decisions on the basis of existing information and best guesses.



www.grahaminvestor.com/screens/graham-number-ncav-screen/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >www.grahaminvestor.com/screens/graham-number-ncav-screen/

As with all decision making methods, decision tree analysis should be used in conjunction with common sense - decision trees are just one important part of your decision making tool kit.

S&P 500 PE
AAA Corp Bond yeild



Disclaimer:  Everything posted in this board is my and others opnions only and does not gurantee any results. Please do your due diligence and consider your own risk tolerance before you invest in  a stock.  Invest only what you can afford to loose and do Risk/Reward analysis before you invest.

#229  Sticky Note subscribe to email list for Annoated Charts and MarketGeometry 11/02/10 01:37:35 AM
#148  Sticky Note If you need a opinion on a chart MarketGeometry 08/16/10 03:57:35 PM
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#353   Profiting From CapFlow: AAR, Microsoft MarketGeometry 12/25/11 02:01:33 PM
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Consent Preferences