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Hey spec
maybe you should go back to school , EGY production is dropping like a rock in water ! JMHO
TGA is caring the load and bagholders are voting against the dud
jmho
Well it's a jittery market now, especially in energy
The supply side is running about where I thought it would but the demand side is far weaker than I expected
Those TGA infill wells on the presentation are a big, floppy, "no thanks"
Can't spin that into a happy face except that it keeps the locals employed
Maybe that's the dog whistle for the "high-grading prospects" and they intend to monetize Egypt in the next couple years to focus on Canada and Etame
Also, I thought it was amusing to see the typo/correction
An IR guy years ago told me that a particularly slippery CEO bragged about doing it deliberately to get the PR posted a second time
"pom-poms come in pairs" were his exact words, LOL
I've got more digging to do here, not sure where my votes will land yet
Boss told me once, "you don't get paid according to what you can do, you get paid for what you get done"
spec
something big is wrong here
the update this morning , production is way down , now who took a big shit ?
My guess EGY and one of them big gushers . JMHO
My guess by looking at the numbers EGY HAS A BIG PROBLEM ,, a lot of debt and little cash . JMHO
Hey bud maybe you should check your math
jmho
EGY shows a little higher NRI Production
than TGA in new Investor Presentation
on the proposed merger...
Helps explain deal structuring...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_00dd42fb0afeedaf72504c0c5d11e02d/vaalco/db/776/7715/pdf/VAALCO+Updated+and+Supplemental+Info+Regarding+Combination+of+VAALCO+and+TransGlobe+FINAL+8-8-22.pdf
It Is what you keep out of what
you make that you keep score on
for future growth...
Spec, they want to buy back your
shares to...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaalco-announces-board-approved-share-060000613.html
How low do we go now?...We already
discovered true TGA NRI prospects...
So we watch...LJ
EGY produced about 7,554 BOPD in the
4th quarter of 2021,,,
and about 7,119 BOPD for 2021...
quoted as NRI production...
https://www.vaalco.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/325/vaalco-energy-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year
EGY lowered guidance to 9,000 to
9,500 BOPD for 2022 production...
quoted as NRI production...
https://www.vaalco.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/342/vaalco-energy-provides-operational-update
And shareholders let the market
makers take the price down like
the end is near...
A production increase of over 25%
on annual basis isn't a sign of
slacking off on effort,,,
7,119 BOPD to 9,000 BOPD...
EGY is discounted because of the
slack buyers...
So we watch...LJ
EGY will have more TGA cash flow
after merger closing to increase
the dividend...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaalco-energy-declares-quarterly-dividend-205900400.html
Until then, we take the needed crumbs
and wait for bigger biscuits...
So we watch...LJ
Look like someone big dumping EGY
wonder why
could be someone does not trust someone
jmho
EGY will probably focus on Canada in 2023
Capex after the TGA merger
does get completed...
EGY is limited in how much of
their cash flow that they can spend
at any time in Gabon holdings...
Then EGY would only have to meet
minimum spending of about $10 million
per year in Egypt Capex...
And EGY in 2023 will have the expenses
of the new FSO changes behind and
see more savings from them also...
Leaning more toward mid ground of
average between our estimates on
possible 2nd quarter EPS...
Would rather guess low and be pleasantly
surprised than the alternative...
Also expecting better oil price next
week when EGY is reporting, which right
now seems to be share price driver...
So we watch...LJ
If EGY made 50% net profit like REI
did in the 2nd quarter, then your
estimate of about .80 EPS would
seem more plausible...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15993570&guid=xjk-keSyii9mB3h
These folks may be too distracted
to be hitting on all cylinders like
REI did though...
REI implemented a strategy using
Puts in 2nd quarter on some production
to set up base cash flow ahead of
their new acquisition that is now
expected to be in closing stages...
Will EGY or TGA reveal any new
strategies in reports to enhance
their merger plans?...
TGA does pay that Egypt Man very
strong on production,,,might have been
alcohol involved when they signed on
to those very high terms...
So we watch...LJ
Oops, put estimate of $90 to $95 million
revenue for 2nd quarter for EGY
on the wrong board...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169592568
Was a mistake by me...
Maybe it will cheer up the other
team members some...
So we watch...LJ
Post from the EGY yahoo board
Scheister14 hours ago
I'd have to say ol' Maxwell Not Smart tried to pull a fast one over on the market and it hit him upside the head. My guess is that his lard #$%$ is going to be kicked to the curb within 60 days. The way I see it, he tried to "merge" with TGA to snag their cash before their shareholders received it. Then he thought he could hold off on the South Tchibala news long enough while everyone's toes were curling over this "great" merger. He then thought he could use the TGA cash, combined with the scraps that he "thought" he had to go out and try and purchase another block, this time from the Ruskies via Gunvor. I'm stating here and now, TGA ain't going for the deal, infact it wouldn't shock me to see them pull out prior to any vote and take this to court and sue EGY for $9MM as Maxwell Not-So Smart lied about the production levels. Furthermore, without TGA's cash he ain't buying Gunvor either.TGA is the buy. If this deal is cancelled, shareholders will most likely receive something like $1 a share dividend based on 75% free cash flow.
jmho
I see EGY is taking another shit again today
When one shoots for pie in the sky and misses down you go
jmho
Germany Restarts Oil-Fired Power Plants...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-Restarts-Oil-Fired-Power-Plants-As-It-Seeks-To-Save-Gas.html
EGY needs to keep concentrating on
serving the oil consumer needs...
Wednesday appeared to be shennanigans
to bring down share prices so that
someone can buy them cheap...Maybe
needing more shares of both companies
to get a merger deal passed...
We don't need to wait on a deal and
a grand plan about TGA crews helping
drill better to improve the well that
was reviewed in Wednesday info...
Seen a lot of crap moves like this
in many penny stocks over years...
TGA price wouldn't have dropped,
since they are a good company,
on EGY news, unless more, cheaper
shares were needed...
Hopefully they have bot up enough
shares by reporting day and will
let EGY move up to $10 to $12 per
share range like it could be...
So we watch...LJ
Will tell you what I think because
I'm just not bashful about doing it...
and it is a Peon opionion...
It is possible that EGY and TGA
don't think that they the votes to
get merger approved...
So a negative item needed to be
released before both companies
post expected good 2nd quarter
results to buy up shares as cheap
as they can do so...friends, of course...
100 bpd oil well production isn't a
viable well today in EGY scheme of
big production at low cost...
Could that change if oil price goes
higher in the future?...of course...
So we watch...LJ
and EGY could just keep on drilling expensive dry holes !
I have never heard of a well that could not be pumped because low volume unless it was a duster
jmho
EGY price drop to maybe 1 times revenue
per share seems too low...
Lowering expectation to about
9,000 BPD of oil production at
$90/barrel Brent would yield almost
$300 miilion revenue per year...
Sell off looks Way overdone...
Added accordingly...
So we watch...LJ
Why is TGA down today if folks wanted
more for TGA versus proposed
deal on table?...
Doesn't look good for negotiating
a better deal for TGA to me...
I'm concerned about that with an
interest in TGA now...
So we watch...LJ
Hey spec machine
Maybe you should do some DD
TGA has 2 x the cash in the bank than EGY JMHO
TGA production over 13,000BOE now JMHO
EGY production with that big gusher duster about 9500 if you can believe it . JMHO
Egypt is low cost production
EGY is high cost production
now witch do smart people pefere to have ?
jmho
I know you've probably already gone over this but the TGA Egypt PSC is flat out horrible!
Heavy sour grade to start with and TGA gets taken for the bulk of it
I'd really like to know the intentions there, I'd prefer not to see a merge unless they have a plan to sell those assets
TGA is locked in and probably has no choice but to either merge or continue with a lousy PSC in Egypt
slide 11 in this presentation
https://s24.q4cdn.com/107256193/files/doc_presentations/2022/06/Corporate-Presentation_FINAL.pdf
If they didn't have the Canada leases, TGA would be teetering on disaster, IMO
spec
Talk about taking a real shit
EGY now down 71 cents
WOW what a pie in the sky company
jmho
Who should be taking over who
TGA production makes EGY production look like shit !
This should reverse the % each company gets. TGA was already producing 13,000 bpd while EGY was supposedly producing 10,500. Now EGY is down to 9,500
What a pump and dump EGY has turned out to be
JMHO
"The beatings will continue until morale improves"
or earnings shock takes hold
The Gamba interval was a disappointment but I am hopeful that the D9 will produce a good DST when they have a chance to do a workover
The D1 wasn't the primary target so it's possible that the area penetrated wasn't the ideal location in that sand, raising the possibility that the D1 is still a target for future use and that a recompletion or a development well would dramatically improve recovery from that sand at that location
any 5's are a bargain and earnings on deck will impress, IMO
I expect revenues to be up 100% yoy at $100-110M and EPS>$.60
I hope they add the 2 wells with the options and announce that with the earnings conference call
The Skandi Constructor and the FSO are converging on Etame from opposite directions and will both arrive in less than 2 weeks at current speeds
spec
Did EGY sit on this bad news for months ?
WOW this could be big
jmho
EGY needs to beat last year's 2nd quarter
results to show growth...
2nd quarter, 2021...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/894627/000089462721000048/egy-20210811xex99_1.htm
The fans are on the edge of their
seats awaiting an answer...
So we watch...LJ
Cash price close for July Brent at $110...
It matters for unhedged sellers...
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/QAY00/overview
so we watch...LJ
FSO vessel is near Durban South Africa
ETA Aug 11
That data point and updates on the new wells should be icing on the cake for the earnings report
spec
Thanks, another deal looking similar to proposed
EGY/TGA merger deal was the
Tullow/Capricorn merger deal that
was proposed ahead of this one...
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/tullow-oil-and-capricorn-unveil-merger-plan-to-create-new-player-with-focus-on-africa/
Hard to overlook obvious...
Same deal consultant may have a
common target for a deal between
all down the road...
Total speculation by me right now...
Gabon and Ghana have similar bordering
to the Equatorial Guinea area that will
need fields developed...
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/tullow-oil-and-capricorn-unveil-merger-plan-to-create-new-player-with-focus-on-africa/
And companies don't take all the risk
but line up other partner venture companies
to share risk of development costs...
https://www.vaalco.com/operations
Total speculation but the deal set ups
being so similar lead speculating on
to the most obvious areas...
Both deals have opposition being
expressed to management priorities...
Tullow already has long term Security
agreement with Ghana Navy if anything
ever does get mentioned...
So we watch...LJ
Earnings filing deadline is Monday Aug 15 by COB (9PM Eastern IIRC)
Last year was a few days early but I expect Monday anyway since Friday is the 13th
I do expect revenues to increase
During the second quarter of 2022, liftings totaled 1,871,446 gross barrels of oil, a record quarterly high for VAALCO, which equates to sales volumes of approximately 10,500 BOPD net to VAALCO.
As of the end of the second quarter of 2022, VAALCO's full year 2022 production guidance remains within the range of 9,500 to 10,500 net NRI BOPD. Preliminary production during the second quarter of 2022 is estimated at 9,200 to 9,300 net BOPD .....
..... The Company continues to expect to meet its 2022 annual guidance.
When do you expect EGY earnings release?...
https://www.vaalco.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/339/vaalco-energy-announces-successful-completion-of-south
What are odds on another dividend
payment?...
Do you expect revenue increase?...
Do you expect net earnings increase?...
Do you think 4th quarter production for
EGY will excede 2nd quarter production?...
thanks for any helpful info...
So we watch...LJ
I can see it now
The class action lawyers looking at Transgolbe income tax returns in Canada.
Hey Neely you could have a problem . JMHO
Not real sure but thought i seen in Canada Transglobe has a big tax pool .
JMHO
Brent price rolled over to new October
contacts tonight at over $100/bbl...
https://www.barchart.com/futures/energies
About $7/bbl higher than WTI in
October on early polling tonight...
Seems like walking will be in style
for this halloween...
So we watch...LJ
That’s some convoluted reasoning when you look at the short on TGA
Good one
spec
Short interest Vaalco 16.33 %
VAALCO ENERGY INC (NYSE:EGY) 16.33%
Now who would short this stock ?
My guess the big holder , the more he drives the price of EGY down the cheaper he gets TGA
JMHO
Decent earnings could make for an exciting run
=============
July 26, 2022 11:54 AM ET (BZ Newswire) -- Penny Stocks
As of the close of business on Monday, 7/25, we captured the Top 10 Highest Short Interest % stocks within the Energy Sector.
The average short interest for stocks within the Energy sector stands at 2.88%. Therefore, the below stocks are showing a more pessimistic outlook than their peers within the respective sector.
HOUSTON AMER ENERG (NYSE:HUSA) 29.29%
URANIUM ENERGY COR (NYSE:UEC) 20.96%
ENERGY FUELS INC (NYSE:UUUU) 20.79%
VERTEX ENERGY INC (NASDAQ:VTNR) 19.35%
KLX ENERGY SERVICE (NASDAQ:KLXE) 16.65%
VAALCO ENERGY INC (NYSE:EGY) 16.33%
CNX RESOURCES CORP (NYSE:CNX) 13.71%
EARTHSTONE ENERGY (NYSE:ESTE) 13.58%
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY (NASDAQ:CHK) 13.04%
CAMBER ENERGY INC (NYSE:CEI) 12.95%
===================================
squeeze play?
spec
Here is link with info that you asked
about, near end of presention...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_9405ac7f3bd89de21d86db52db95322c/vaalco/db/776/7705/pdf/Roth+Conference+6-20.pdf
Was busy when you asked...
Two new wells of initial production
of 5,000 bpd and 3,100 bpd that
were drilled in 1st half of 2022
were also in that info...
so we watch...LJ
Took a small starter position in TGA Tuesday...
Like that 67% ratio off the EGY
price if earnings are decent
for both companies as expected...
so we watch...LJ
Thanks for the info, sketchy makes for
interested reading to pass the
time...
TGA was having a time trying to
keep up with EGY on Monday...
So we watch...LJ
Gunvor asset sale was mooted according to what appears to be an unverified news blurb which may have been the source used by other digital rags
so yeah, sketchy
But they do have the cash and/or financing ability
I just figure they're taking steps to strategically grow inorganically in geopolitical stable markets
So, good if they can get a panic discount
Or, if not, cool with what's on the burners now
spec
end of September, 2022 on small percentage...
EGY hedging loss , from another board
Re::RE:EPS est 1Q22
Egg on my estimate. Operating earnings went from $26 million to $40. So far so good. But now to hedging losses. $2 million in 4Q21 to $32 in 1Q22. Horrible. EGY should learn about hedges from Cenovus which gave them up.
Now i wonder how far forward EGY has production hedged , this could be a game changer
jmho
That big well EGY drilled has big questions if you listened to the CC
The K-71 well experienced unforeseen and significant drilling challenges but was ultimately drilled to a total depth of 1,448 meters, fully logged and evaluated.
I think TGA shareholders will get the announced divi
but the rest ....
I can't read threw you're typoz to figger out if maybee geology, world political dynamiks, spelling, and numberz, just aint in your wheelhouse
The finer points of oil and gas upstream sure aren't
I won't be bichin if the hole deal falls threw
judge? That's hilarious but you shud call or email all of the law firms and join in the fun
spec
Well you posted the speculation that some
others may be thinking...
EGY will likely sell the Egypt portion
and shift resources to better fit
today's world dynamics
(increase investment in Canada and EG)
TGA as a stand alone would drop
a lot of revenue with that type
asset sale but after a merger would
have new area to focus cash flow on...
Strike or sell when the iron is hot
type of thinking...
And the sale lane could gather more
steam this fall when Brandon has
depleted U.S. SPR dramatically...
So we watch...LJ
Man you can not see the trees threw your fog covered glasses
Egypt is where the big money is !
Canada field is tight and production drops like a rock .
Egypt has one field that we just started drilling horizional wells and if i remember right has about 50 million reserves
Will wait to see what the judge says and watch EGY holders bitch when we get 1 for 1 and back dividend that we were told we would get
jmho
I haven't seen anything on that (Gunvor) but I'm back in the office this week (and not restricted to a small phone screen), so I'll see if I can dig anything useful up
Yeah, Egypt ... exactly what I was thinking
I was hoping they didn't put a high valuation on those reserves
spec
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