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Vic & Len, MR. MEDIAN ... ???
I say Mr. SHEEP = MR. MEDIAN
But what about MR. MEAN ... ??? He has writes two .. !!!
PS: Koz is so far ahead of Humanity that Koz should be
declared a separate SPECIES ... !!!!!!!!
Nice work Len. Thank you.
I was also hoping for the actual numbers. ie: the winners picked dow 10400 and actual was 10428 etc.
I know I can look it up, but just thought it would be a nice add to he ibox to document it.
Thanks again,
Vic
Vic: IBOX:
The Ibox should now have everything anyone would want regarding each of the winners (Overall, Dow, Oil and Gold) and how much they were off by percentage for both previous contests.
Also shown is Mr.Median for each category for each year.
In case you were wondering, the reason everyone was off so much in 2008 was oil. LJ picked $44 and it was $42.63. However, the next closest was almost 100% off (Rawnoc $85.00, -99.4%).
Needless to say, Mr.Median was affected.
Len
Len,
Thank you. It looks like the 2009 median was too bearish across the board. I wonder if the 2010 median will now turn out to be too bullish across the board.
If the market goes in the tank again I figure all asset classes will go down with it too. At least temporarily. 1 year is not a lomg time frame when lookin at macro cycles.
I think the next downer will be the worst one yet but it is nearly impossible to micro time when it will start, given the printing power of the fed. The current house of cards could last for weeks, months or years. Your guess is as good as mine. Vic
Vic: DOW OIL GOLD
Mr. Median was 21st out of 51 contestents in DOG09.
His picks and the final numbers are below.
I wouldn't call that very close.
Picks 8775 60.00 962.00
Final 10428 79.62 1097.50
I will try to update the IBox with the final numbers for the winners.
Len
DOG STANDINGS WEEK 1: 1 Rrufff 0.054 DOW #7, OIL #2, GOLD #6: LAST WEEK'S OVERALL RANK: N/A Week # Leader
Weekly leaders are at the bottom of this post.
Cumulative ratings
Weekly Leaders
2 Est.Prophet 0.092
3 ZenLunatic 0.109 DOW Leader (tie)
4 Nelson 0.111
5 TMCal 0.127
6 Stiffler 0.133
7 Ari 0.166
8 Mr. Median 0.176
9 SSKillz 0.183
10 Beigledog 0.199
11 Maxttr 0.204
12 Stevenrisk 0.210 GOLD Leader
13 Swanlinbar 0.231
14 MSGI 0.236
15 Researcher 0.248
16 CptMatt 0.253
17 Mandjb 0.271
18 Ecoblot 0.271
19 Pattydady 0.273
20 Rce9rys 0.274
21 Knowledge 0.278 DOW Leader (tie)
22 AliveInvest. 0.288
23 KP28 0.294
24 Just4Fun 0.299
25 JSim 0.306
26 SWB 0.320
27 Avandalay 0.320
28 Snakeman 0.348
29 DanLC 0.358 DOW Leader (tie)
30 Valuemind 0.367
31 StanU 0.378
32 JoeInIowa 0.378
33 RMIWA 0.383
34 Split 0.384
35 TrueFlorida 0.387
36 Larrybaz 0.392 DOW Leader (tie)
37 Bobwins 0.393
38 Gilead 0.411
39 HarryWickey 0.412
40 Stockpeeker 0.428
41 A1derfulLife 0.428
42 UICJeff 0.438
43 Arnie 0.449
44 FinancialAdv. 0.459
45 Dickmilde 0.465
46 GHMM 0.473 OIL Leader
47 Tra8derVic 0.488
48 PostCog 0.501
49 MikeDDKing 0.535
50 BBOTC 0.543
51 2Morrowsgains 0.549
52 Rawnoc 0.583
53 Wyobuford 0.664
54 10Bagger 0.708
55 Kozuh 0.739
56 CWS9 0.866
57 Lentinman 0.875
58 Digitech 0.907
59 Tbone 0.916
60 Nsomniyak 0.973
61 Timhyma 0.985
62 Donshub 1.068
63 Yieldude 1.137
64 Roguedolphin 1.385
65 CL001 1.542
66 Jang-A-Lang 1.958
67 TheAliceMay 1.970
68 OTCBargains 2.921
Len
Week 1 Rrufff 0.054
Len, out of curiosity if you have time, what was the average (concensus) and median pick for 2009 vs the actual finish of the dog. Just wondering if we came close as a group. Tia, Vic
Also, could you please show the past winners predictions vs the actual in the ibox? Thanks.
Look, Toto, Tinman got a heart!
;>) 'peeker
ALL PICKS ARE IN IBOX
Please verify that yours is correct.
67 contestants plus Mr. Median.
Len
Peeker:
The deadline was a week ago, however since I hadn't yet posted the picks for everyone and since you were a top-5 performer in DOG09, I will include you in the contest... Just don't ever let it happen again.
Len
My 2010 prediction for the markets is that they do very well the first 6-8 months of the year. Oil, Gold, and the Dow all moviing strongly upward. Markets run hard into the November elections. After that, people start to focus on higher taxes for 2011, the end of 15% long term capital gains, and the fact that the market is far ahead of what is called the recovery. Then, the market tanks out and erases all the gains in the final few months.
DOG:
Dow 12345
Oil 88.88
Gold 1357
IBOX:
In case you looked at the IBOX and wondered what the deal was, those entries were for 2009, not 2010. I haven't updated it yet, but did remove the old entries. I'm still waiting for a couple people to correct mistakes they made.
Len
"kozuh" changing to "lentinman2"
in the near future ... .
This will make me the de facto "iHub Bride"
of the "great one" and owner of 50% of his
property, including his dog Stubby ... and
his double-wide and the Gold Coins that he
has buried in his yard at the ... Jay-Walkers
Trailer Park ... .
Lenny Tinman, Any Deep Thoughts ... ???
Dodge City casino opens as Kansas bets on revenues
By John Hanna, Associated Press Writer , On Wednesday , 8:02 am EST
DODGE CITY, Kan. (AP) -- December 16, 2009 -- Hundreds of people turned up Tuesday for the opening of a casino in Dodge City, launching a new franchise for Kansas and reviving memories of the once-raucous cowtown that inspired television's "Gunsmoke."
At least a few players liked the idea of their coins and dollars supporting state programs, as revenues from the Boot Hill Casino and Resort will go to the state. But customers came more for the spin of the roulette wheel and slot machines with names like "Zeus" and -- of course, in Kansas -- "The Wizard of Oz."
"I think it's going to boost the economy," said Lori Hendricks, 47, an auto parts store employee from Montezuma, 25 miles to the southwest. "People will come and spend their money in the community."
Hendricks, who said she visits casinos a few times a year, was able to avoid her usual six- or seven-hour drive to Kansas City.
About 100 people were lined up when Boot Hill opened, and several hundred more came through in the first few hours. A ribbon-cutting was planned for Wednesday, when Gov. Mark Parkinson was to visit.
Boot Hill is the first complex built under a 2007 state law authorizing one casino in each of four areas to generate revenue for the state. A private developer built the casino and will manage it, but the state lottery owns the rights to the gambling and the gambling equipment, down to the cards and dice. Kansas is the only state with such an arrangement, according to the American Gaming Association.
The casino complex opened with 20,000 square feet of gambling space, 584 slot machines and 12 tables for blackjack, poker, craps and roulette, along with a bar, a restaurant and a snack bar. The second phase, to be completed by 2012, includes a 124-room hotel. Butler National Corp., based in Olathe, has committed to spending nearly $90 million on the project.
Butler National expects the casino to generate nearly $44 million in net gambling revenues during its first year. The state's share would be almost $10 million.
"I feel like I ain't just throwing my money away," said William Alcorn, a 48-year-old painter from Greensburg, who was playing a slot machine. "It goes to a good cause."
Even as the casino opened, however, local mental health professionals were discussing a safety net for treating gambling addictions. By law, a portion of casino revenues go to such programs.
"We understand that there are going to be people who develop a problem who wouldn't have if a casino weren't here," said Debbie Snapp, executive director of the local Catholic Social Service.
Some western Kansas residents were just happy to have the casino hiring. It opened with 286 employees and expects to eventually have about 600. Robert Bridle, a craps dealer, had worked as an auto dealership's finance manager until this spring.
"I got laid off, and I decided I might want a change in my career," the 36-year-old Dodge City resident said.
Dodge City seemed a natural site for a casino to some local officials and legislators, given its history as a wicked western town in the 1870s and 1880s and a place where famed lawman Wyatt Earp also was a faro dealer. The city once had 18 or 19 saloons -- including the famous Long Branch -- and most had gambling, said Jeff Thorpe, the president of a local group that lobbied for the casino law.
The wild times led to a backlash, as Dodge City residents sought a more sedate community, and the gambling disappeared. Eventually, the cowtown of the past lived on only in "Gunsmoke," which originally aired from the 1950s to the 1970s.
Chinese numerology....I thought you were more analytical? lol
Art
Binary Humor ... !!!!
In Binary, I am saying that there should be 10
kinds of SHEEP in the DOG Contest ... .
*************************************************
Counting in binary
Decimal ... Binary
0 .................. 0
1 .................. 1
2 ................ 10
3 ................ 11
4 .............. 100
Len & J Sim, re: MR. SHEEP ... !!!
MR. SHEEP #1 could be the 3 AVERAGES.
MR. SHEEP #2 could be the 3 MEDIANS.
Sort of like the Average phone number
and the Median phone number for the
State of Kansas ... which we all know
that Len keeps track of diligently ... .
Thanks for the catch Len.
I am a pessimist, but that is a little much...
DOW 13,000.
Oil $92.55, Gold $1257, DOW 12275
The skeaky wheel gets ...
the earl.
One of the tidbits of wisdom my Mother gave me when I was a little kid. I never really knew why she said it that way. She grew up in the city of Boston. She did spend time in Texas when she was a WAF.
TAM
65 Contestants
There were 50 in the first two DOG contests.
What is interesting is that every single one of the 65 people have been IHubbers for at least 3 years - most around 5 years(VMC'ers) - with the exception of two people. One of them was IHub born in June of last year and another 2 days ago.
The point is that the continuity of the group is really quite amazing for so long a period of time. Also, with as much experience as we have, we should be halfway decent at predicting the DOG. Unfortunately, none of us have a clue... except me of course.
DOW - 7878
OIL - 78.78
GOLD - 1,787
Len
Where's MR. SHEEP ... ???????
Where's our friend ... the cud-chewing
mamma of PSL fame ... ?????????????????
Every iHub Contest should have at least one
SHEEP running around ... humping the leg of
the nearest contestant ... and begging for a
snack-treat ... and making noises like a ...
coffee-making machine in heat ... .
Since Len is a practitioner of "The Black Arts
of Sir Ronald Fisher," I think Len should ...
calculate at least one "SHEEP Entry" for the
DOG Contest ... .
Happy New Year Art and all in the VMC community.....
Dow: 11,679
Oil: 89
Gold: 1,304
Good luck to all in 2010!!
Art
Happy new year to you to Rogue....
Art
Congratulations to Stevenrisk:
Winner of the ScoopDOG award for 2009.
Winner for 2008 was LittleJohn (0.730)
By ending at 0.095, that means Stevenrisk was "off" an average of only 3.2% for each prediction.
Here are his three picks and the percentage off for each.
BTW: I credit Stevenrisk for having gotten me into BB stocks way back in the day.DOW 9773 -6.3%
OIL 82 -3.0%
GOLD 1100 -0.2%
FINAL DOG STANDINGS WEEK 52: 1 StevenRisk 0.095 DOW #13, OIL #2, GOLD #1 (tie): LAST WEEK'S OVERALL RANK: #1 Week # Leader
There were 13 overall leaders at one time or another.
Weekly leaders are at the bottom of this post.
Cumulative ratings
Weekly Leaders
2 Split 0.217
3 Bobwins 0.258
4 StkPeeker 0.298
5 Avandalay 0.302
6 10Bagger 0.337 OIL Leader
7 PattyDady 0.360
8 2Morrow 0.371
9 DanLC 0.378
10 Lebanese 0.384
11 CL001 0.386
12 IDD582 0.393
13 Arnie 0.405
14 JSim 0.443
15 LTMatt 0.446
16 PostCog 0.467
17 Just4Fun 0.477
18 Ari 0.484
19 Tr8derVic 0.490
20 SSKillz 0.494 GOLD Leaders (tie)
21 MR. MEDIAN 0.528
22 Crochunter 0.570
23 Death2Taxes 0.586
24 CWS9 0.594
25 BBOTC 0.604
26 Rocketeer 0.606
27 Nelson 0.649
28 Researcher 0.651
29 MSGI 0.714
30 NoWayOut 0.714
31 TMCal 0.752
32 Fin.Advisor 0.757
33 THREES 0.801
34 JangALang 0.831
35 MikeS 0.849 DOW Leader
36 Knowledge 0.859
37 GHMM 0.898
38 WadeGarret 0.938
39 A1derfulLife 0.969
40 Tbone 0.980
41 LatinBlood 0.997
42 Larrybaz 1.020
43 Lentinman 1.054
44 Rawnoc 1.095
45 Yielddude 1.122
46 Wyobuford 1.204
47 Generic 1.343
48 Ecoblot 1.496
49 SixtyThree 1.539
50 LittleJohn 2.285
51 DonsHub 3.753
Len
Week 1 THREES .068
Week 2 THREES .375
Week 3 THREES .130
Week 4 THREES .224
Week 5 THREES .250
Week 6 THREES .412
Week 7 Lentinman .445
Week 8 THREES .358
Week 9 Wyobuford .312
Week 10 THREES .289
Week 11 A1derful .263
Week 12 A1derful .252
Week 13 Nelson .202
Week 14 Nelson .175
Week 15 THREES .169
Week 16 Nelson .241
Week 17 Nelson .186
Week 18 Mr.Median .097
Week 19 Mr.Median .159
Week 20 Ari .095
Week 21 Ari .075
Week 22 LT Matt .029
Week 23 LT Matt .066
Week 24 LT Matt .056
Week 25 LT MAtt .057
Week 26 LT MAtt .091
Week 27 MSGI .100
Week 28 Ari .041
Week 29 LT Matt .059
Week 30 LT Matt .079
Week 31 LT Matt .110
Week 32 LT Matt .071
Week 33 JSim .173
Week 34 JSim .151
WEEK 35 LT Matt .082
WEEK 36 2Morrow .126
WEEK 37 2Morrow .174
WEEK 38 2Morrow .103
WEEK 39 2Morrow .146
WEEK 40 Bobwins .177
WEEK 41 StevenRisk.112
WEEK 42 StevenRisk.081
WEEK 43 StevenRisk.126
WEEK 44 StevenRisk.084
WEEK 45 StevenRisk.137
WEEK 46 StevenRisk.156
WEEK 47 Bobwins .130
WEEK 48 Bobwins .135
WEEK 49 Bobwins .172
WEEK 50 Bobwins .141
WEEK 51 StevenRisk.125
WEEK 52 StevenRIsk.095
dow 1160, oil 87.00 gold 1286
Dow 10500
Oil 90
Gold 1150
My SUBMISSIONS ... !!!!!!!!!!!!!
ISLAM = Submission to Allah
therefore:
ISLEN = Submission to Len
My submissions to Len, the merciful and gracious,
may he have 72 Virgins living with him and Stubby
in his double-wide, and may the interior decor no
longer resemble a Lawrence "landfill":
Dow to be ... 12345.6789
Gold to be ... $1234.56789
Earl(*) ... $123.456789
*****************************
(*) Texan for Oil
Split:
Apparently, I have some kind of JAVA problem.
Len
My 2010 predictions.....
Dow 4,750
Oil $129
Gold $1,450
I think the WAR CARD will be played in a major way in the year 2010 at some point as the US government solutions to our economic crisis here are a complete folly at best and are doomed to fail.
All we need is a catalyst......WAR ANYONE??
Len,
try this.. go to stockcharts (free)
http://stockcharts.com/
under enter symbol type in $indu click go, scroll down to the bottom you will see interactive perfectchart, click on it, scroll down on it and you will see symbols: with $INDU in the elongated box, add $wtic , $gold separated by commas than click go..........it should come up....
That's strange because
I know you used it Jan 3,09,
I originally posted it Jan. 2,09
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34549688
Split:
The link doesn't work for me.
Len
Interactive chart dow,oil,gold
252 days equals 12/31/2008 to 12/30/2009
the dow increased..from 8,776 to 10548 + 20.19%
oil...from $44.60 to $79.34....+77.89%
gold from $884.30 to $1093.20..+23.62%
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$INDU,$wtic,$gold
the 200days (bottom right) has to be extended out to 252 days and the dates in the top left corner of the chart will change
dow..12154
oil..74.95
gold 974.00
I was out looking for an eye doctor for my squirrel
Thanks, but I would really like to see you make predictions for 2010 - or did I miss them?
Len
Stevenrisk, Let me be the first to congratulate you, unless something catastrophic occurs between now and closing tomorrow (12-31-09) I think you are safe.
As of now 11:43 pm EST gold is trading in Hong Kong @ $1097.70 and light crude @ $79.61
This blind squirrel climbed from hovering around the bottom of the barrel during the first few months of the year to near the top.
Again Congrads
The purpose of this board is to allow VMC'ers to make an annual prediction. The third "annual" prediction will be from 1-1-10 through 12-31-10.
[b]2008 Winners[/b]
[pre] Mr.Median #25 of 52
Overall Littlejohn -73.0% -229.5%
DOW Littlejohn - 8.8% - 30.2%
OIL Littlejohn - 3.2% -188.5%
GOLD GRP316 - 0.6% - 12.3%
[/pre]
[b]2009 Winners[/b]
[pre] Mr.Median #21 of 51
Overall Stevenrisk - 9.5% - 52.8%
DOW MikeDDKing - 0.7% - 15.9%
OIL 10bagger - 1.4% - 24.6%
GOLD SSKillz1 - 0.2% - 12.3%
GOLD Stevenrisk - 0.2%[/pre]
Below are the three categories that everyone needs to make a prediction on. The winners will be the person who is the closest to each. The grand prize winner will be the person who has the lowest average rank for all three...
1) Price of barrel of oil
2) Price of ounce of gold
3) Dow Jones Industrial Average
[b]PICKS
[pre] DOW OIL GOLD[/b]
10Bagger 9860 106 1544
2Morrowsgains 12400 99 1350
A1derfulLife 9000 70 1000
AliveInvestments 12000 95 1150
Ari 11200 78 1200
Arnie 11550 110 1175
Avandalay 11679 89 1304
BBOTC 10000 93 1550
Beigledog 11340 88.32 1212
Bobwins 9700 78 1423
CL001 15000 150 1500
CptMatt 9750 73 1200
CWS9 11550 126 1430
DanLC 10500 105 1050
Dickmilde 12480 95 1300
Digitech 14452 103 1482
Donshub 7300 90 1900
Ecoblot 12000 90 1200
Est.Prophet 10428 79.62 1098
FinancialAdv. 9120 79.97 1463
GHMM 13200 82.50 880
Gilead 9350 97 1275
HarryWickey 11111 111 1111
Jang-A-Lang 13000 200 1500
JoeInIowa 12275 92.55 1257
JSim 9595 69.5 1195
Just4Fun 12000 85 1300
Knowledge 10500 78 900
Kozuh 12346 123.46 1235
KP28 11392 87 945
Larrybaz 10500 65 950
Lentinman 7878 78.78 1787
Mandjb 9600 80 1300
Maxttr 9760 92.50 1145
MikeDDKing 12500 95 900
Mr.Median 11200 88.32 1200
MSGI 12200 80 1200
Nelson 11050 80 1096
Nsomniyak 11980 125 1520
OTCBargains 16000 220 2000
Pattydady 11600 87 1286
PostCog 11500 100 900
Rawnoc 12300 94 810
Rce9rys 12900 85 1175
Researcher 11750 88 1050
RMIWA 9500 94 1300
Roguedolphin 4750 129 1450
Rrufff 10920 82 1120
Snakeman 12005 82 902
Split 12154 74.95 974
SSKillz 11000 75 1200
StanU 9999 99 999
Stevenrisk 11400 94 1140
Stiffler 10875 89.95 1164
Stockpeeker 12345 88.88 1357
Swanlinbar 9775 80.25 1277
SWB 11500 85 900
Tbone 6500 60 850
TheAliceMay 7000 155 2000
Timhyma 14700 47 947
TMCal 11250 78 1150
Tra8derVic 8100 81 1400
TrueFlorida 9437 68 1250
UICJeff 12200 95 1300
Valuemind 11000 80 800
Wyobuford 8000 63.75 925
Yieldude 5844 48 1443
ZenLunatic 10500 90 1150[/pre]
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