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THE VIX INDEX IS CLIMBING ... Today's big jump in the Volatility (VIX) Index also shows rising investor nervousness. Chart 8 shows the so-called "fear gauge" rising 30% today and threatening its late May intra-day peak at 18.78. A close above that chart barrier would put the VIX at the highest level in two months and would be a negative sign for stocks.
Last week, market volatility surged higher as the major stock indexes sold off. The catalyst for the surge in volatility was due to increased tension between the U.S. and North Korea. Now that the so-called geopolitical tension has subsided near term the CBOE Volatility Index(INDEXCBOE:VIX) has declined by nearly 6.0 points from last week's high of 17.28. Is there a support level where traders should look for a bounce in the $VIX? At this time, the major daily chart support level in the $VIX should be around the 10.96 level. Please note, this chart level is a major retrace area from the high and also a spot where the 20 and 50-day moving averages are on the daily chart. This is a level where I will be looking to get involved on a move back higher in volatility.
Tomorrow morning is a big day for retail. Companies such as Coach Inc(NYSE: COH), TJX Companies Inc(NYSE: TJX), Home Depot Inc(NYSE: HD) and Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE: DKS) are all scheduled to report earnings ahead of the opening bell tomorrow. What do all of these companies have in common? They have all been hurt by the Amazon effect. Even Home Depot Inc(NYSE: HD) saw its stock drop after Amazon announces that it will sell appliances from Kenmore which is owned by Sears Holdings Corp(NASDAQ: SHLD).
Traders and investors will want to watch the SPDR S&P Retail (ETF)(NYSEARCA: XRT) very closely as this will be driven by these leading retail stocks. Since June, the XRT has been in a trading range between the $41.75 and $38.75 levels. Now we will see if these retail giants will move the needle in the XRT tomorrow.