UpStart Holdings Inc (UPST)

[pauljack13]

This stock has got a lot of room to move. I think it’s just consolidating, getting ready for it’s next leg upwards. JMO

$SMCI

[gail]

yup, should have waited, oh well, next.

[gail]

huge buys now, and moving up eod here.

[gail]

it’s fighting against that current of …

…

manipulation but its trying to go back up to new highs now.


lets do this!!

[gail]

should have waited a tad longer to buy, lol

[gail]

Upstart to Report Second Quarter 2023 Earnings on August 8, 2023

4:30 PM ET, 07/12/2023 - Business Wire

SAN MATEO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jul. 12, 2023--Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), a leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, announced today that its second quarter fiscal year 2023 business and financial results will be released on Tuesday, August 8, 2023 after the market close. Upstart will host a conference call and live webcast that day at 1:30 p.m. PT / 4:30 p.m. ET. Prior to the conference call, the second quarter 2023 earnings press release and investor presentation will be available on Upstart’s investor relations website at ir.upstart.com.

Live webcast. The live webcast will be accessible on Upstart’s investor relations website, ir.upstart.com, and an archived webcast of the conference call will be available after the conference call.

Conference Call Dial In. To access the live conference call in the United States and Canada: [phone], conference code 2527927. To access the live conference call outside of the United States and Canada: [phone], conference code 2527927.

[eastunder]

What do you think is coming in August?

[gail]

no, i dont know much about…..

..

that stuff, but i like what is coming here in aug.

[eastunder]

I do know this move is certainly surprising a lot of shorts. Do you have access to current short numbers?

All I have is this but not sure of the accuracy.

https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=upst&submit=Short+Quote%99

[gail]

seems it will keep going and then we see what they say on aug 8. im assuming its good.

[eastunder]

Hey Gail!

It was just at 12 bucks in May.

Been a good run already.

[gail]

hopped in today. looking forward to aug 8 fins.

[eastunder]

Upstart to Report Second Quarter 2023 Earnings on August 8, 2023

4:30 PM ET, 07/12/2023 - Business Wire

SAN MATEO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jul. 12, 2023--Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), a leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, announced today that its second quarter fiscal year 2023 business and financial results will be released on Tuesday, August 8, 2023 after the market close. Upstart will host a conference call and live webcast that day at 1:30 p.m. PT / 4:30 p.m. ET. Prior to the conference call, the second quarter 2023 earnings press release and investor presentation will be available on Upstart’s investor relations website at ir.upstart.com.

Live webcast. The live webcast will be accessible on Upstart’s investor relations website, ir.upstart.com, and an archived webcast of the conference call will be available after the conference call.

Conference Call Dial In. To access the live conference call in the United States and Canada: [phone], conference code 2527927. To access the live conference call outside of the United States and Canada: [phone], conference code 2527927.

About Upstart

Upstart is a leading AI lending marketplace partnering with banks and credit unions to expand access to affordable credit. By leveraging Upstart’s AI platform, Upstart-powered banks and credit unions can have higher approval rates and lower loss rates for every race, ethnicity, age, and gender, while simultaneously delivering the exceptional digital-first lending experience their customers demand. More than two-thirds of Upstart loans are approved instantly and are fully automated. Upstart was founded by ex-Googlers in 2012 and is based in San Mateo, California and Columbus, Ohio.

[bhulkupk]

I am wondering the same as well

[Monksdream]

Professional money likes it

[eastunder]

What lit that fire?

Super nice day!

[Monksdream]

UPST new 52/week high

[eastunder]

And It's still highly shorted, I believe.

[Monksdream]

UPST new 52 week high

[eastunder]

None of These Wall Street Analysts Recommend Buying This AI Stock -- They Might Be Wrong
By Anthony Di Pizio – Jun 8, 2023 at 7:59AM

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/85a21b57-6039-328b-9283-ad59156dbd72/none-of-these-wall-street.html

KEY POINTS
Upstart stock peaked in late 2021, right before rising inflation and interest rates disrupted the U.S. economy.
The stock plunged 97% from its all-time high, and Wall Street remains bearish.
But Upstart stock has had a monster gain in 2023, and many of the issues with its business are gradually resolving.


NASDAQ: UPST
Upstart
Upstart Stock Quote
Market Cap $2B
Today's Change (14.93%) $4.26
Current Price $32.80
Price as of June 8, 2023, 1:58 p.m. ET

Wall Street is bearish on Upstart stock, but it's surging this year anyway.

When the professionals on Wall Street reach a consensus about whether to buy or sell a stock, it pays to listen more often than not. But in at least one case this year, following the herd of analysts might have resulted in selling Upstart (UPST 14.93%) stock right before it made a major move higher.

Upstart has been swept up in the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy in 2023, which appears to have caught Wall Street off guard. The majority of analysts tracked by The Wall Street Journal still recommend selling the stock, but here's why they might continue to be wrong.

Upstart is disrupting traditional lending

For the past 34 years, when a consumer applies for a loan from a bank, their creditworthiness has been measured by Fair Isaac's FICO scoring system. FICO takes into account five key factors, including a potential borrower's repayment history and how much money they still owe to other lenders.

But Upstart says FICO is outdated because its scope is too narrow, and it overlooks too many quality applicants -- particularly those in minority demographics. Upstart uses artificial intelligence (AI) to instead analyze over 1,600 data points on a potential borrower, which includes their employment history, level of education, and even where they live.

According to an internal study, loans originated by Upstart's algorithm result in 53% fewer defaults at the same approval rate as loans assessed the traditional way. Also, Upstart approves a whopping 173% more loans at the same default rate -- this implies banks are rejecting a lot of worthy borrowers.

Plus, since Upstart's technology is powered by AI, it's capable of analyzing data rapidly to make fully automated, instant approval decisions 84% of the time.

Upstart's business model is simple: It doesn't lend any money itself, but rather it originates loans for its bank, credit union, and car dealership partners, and it gets paid a fee for doing so. The upside for the lender is that Upstart's algorithm is faster and more accurate than traditional, human assessment methods, which would take weeks to analyze the same amount of data.

But Upstart is coming off a miserable 18-month period

Upstart was founded in 2012, which means it had operated exclusively in stable economic times up until the pandemic period from 2020 on. Its stock price marched higher until the second half of 2021, when it hit an all-time high of $401, but investors grew concerned when inflation began to spike, ending the period of ultra-low interest rates in the U.S.

That sent ripple effects throughout the economy, with demand for consumer credit plunging. Additionally, all of a sudden, Upstart was struggling to find buyers for the loans it was originating. Institutions adopted a "wait and see" approach when it came to the company's algorithm, because defaults began to climb, and they weren't sure if the loans would continue to perform in line with the modeled outcomes.

Upstart wound up absorbing a number of loans using its own balance sheet, which added credit risk to the company -- something investors did not sign up for -- and sent its stock to a low of $11.93.

Fortunately, as time went on, Upstart released lots of data proving its AI-powered approach is up to the task, no matter the economic environment. As of the first quarter of 2023, the company had a record-high 99 lending partners, which was almost double the number it had a year ago. That signals renewed confidence.

Plus, Upstart recently announced some of those partners pledged $2 billion in new funding to help the company weather any future speed bumps, where it might struggle to find immediate buyers for its loans.


Wall Street might be wrong to recommend selling Upstart stock

The Wall Street Journal tracks 15 analysts covering Upstart stock. Four recommend holding, three are in the underweight (bearish) camp, and the remaining eight have given it the lowest-possible sell rating. Not a single analyst recommends buying. That's little changed from three months ago.

Their average price target is $12.61. But here's the problem: Upstart stock has surged 120% in 2023 so far and currently trades at about $29! That means, had investors listened to Wall Street on this occasion, they would've missed a really nice gain.

Given the challenging economic climate, analysts don't expect loan demand to recover this year. They estimate Upstart's revenue could come in at $548 million for 2023, which would be a 34% drop compared to 2022, though they do expect a return to growth in 2024.

But this is a long-term story, and now that the company is on a more stable footing, this could be a great time for investors to buy in. AI is infiltrating so many industries right now, and it's almost inevitable it will make an impact on lending. For all of its early challenges, Upstart thinks it has a $4 trillion opportunity in the markets for personal loans, automotive loans, business loans, and mortgages.

Since the company is valued at just $2.4 billion today, the risk-reward proposition presented by Upstart stock sure looks attractive, irrespective of Wall Street's opinion.

[bwrbad]

UPST - like this one but don't understand why the two Indian executives -particularly the CFO Sanjay Datta selling so many millions of shares every month when retail looking for support from insiders. Something very wrong with this company. too much debt could be an indication why insiders don't trust and taking all they can get free.

[TheFinalCD]

WHAT A BEAST #CONGRAT$

[eastunder]

Cha ching!

That's a huge move for UPST. 25%

Nice day!

[Mt. Blanc]

UPST off it goes

mb

[LowFloatLopes]

That sucks

[eastunder]

Nice volume too

Momentum for UPST is strongly bullish. The 14-period Slow Stochastic oscillator is above 80, the level which many analysts call overbought. This means that investors have been actively purchasing shares and driving the price higher.
As of 2:59 PM ET Thursday, 05/18/2023

Volume
The last 10-days have seen significant volume in UPST, with average daily volume above the average for the last year. Today's volume is no exception; with 14,404,325 shares having been traded already. The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) is bullish. The slope of the indicator is positive and suggests that buyers are presently more active than sellers.

[lvhd]

Played some calls

[TheFinalCD]

WOW SQUEEZING HERE LOOKS LIKE TRYING FOR $24

A HALT UP COULD GET CRAZY

[lvhd]

Back to 15 soon

[bwrbad]

Shorts are still very very safe - they have much bigger window. But it will start pinching them if it move up above 30 from buying pressure. right now no buying pressure it is all selling pressure - some retail, daytraders taking profit.

[eastunder]

AI lending firm Upstart jumps as $2 billion funding news squeezes bears
Reuters
Wed, May 10, 2023 at 6:01 AM MDT·2 min read
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-lending-firm-upstart-jumps-120122451.html

(Reuters) - Shares of highly shorted Upstart Holdings jumped 32% in premarket trading on Wednesday, squeezing out bearish investors, after the artificial intelligence-driven lending marketplace secured an additional $2 billion in funding.

The San Mateo, California-based company, which uses AI to verify and process loans quickly, said it would receive the capital from new and existing partners over the next 12 months, helping the firm navigate an economic slowdown.

A sharp drop in demand for new loans because of high interest rates and fears of a slowdown has hammered shares of Upstart, erasing 82% of their value in the past 12 months.

"(The) committed funding agreements are a concrete step towards stabilizing Upstart's business," said James Faucette, analyst at Morgan Stanley, raising its price target on the stock to $13 from $10.

However, Faucette warned of risks ahead related to uncertain economic conditions, the company's historically challenged credit performance, and a lack of visibility to profitability.

Wall Street has a bearish view on the company and the average rating of 14 brokerages covering stock is "sell", while the median price target is $11.50, implying an 18.4% downside to the stock's last close.

At current levels, short sellers stand to lose about $122 million, according to analytics firm Ortex. About 37.5% of its free float was in short position as of May 8.

"With the price in Upstart jumping up over 30% in the pre-market, some short sellers will try to close their positions... adding additional buy pressure on the stock," said Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex.

When there is a rush of demand from short sellers looking to exit bearish bets due to a rise in a stock's price, it pushes prices even higher, resulting in a short squeeze.

The company's net loss per share, excluding items, was 47 cents, beating analysts' estimates of 81 cents loss per share, according to Refinitiv.

[CanuckCa$h]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-lending-firm-upstart-jumps-120122451.html

[CanuckCa$h]

Got a few @ 19.5. Let's see what this does today!

[LowFloatLopes]

Let’s goooo

[LowFloatLopes]

Hope we cross 19 soon might have to bail

[LowFloatLopes]

I’m at 18.50 with a pinch lol

[Nikodemos]

GOOOOOING UP! And higher still,.... Expecting a short continuation before a "correction"... ENJOYING the elevator ride UP!!

But am NOT going to hold this through tomorrow's trading session: Taking them profits while they are STILL THERE to be had, as I look for one more POKE UP through mid-$20's for last batch liquidation. Time will tell,....

[TheFinalCD]

THATS WHY I WENT SHORT SOME @ 20.39

[eastunder]

Pathetic!

[bwrbad]

Short % of Float 36.29%

OMG accidentally shorts got trapped, they didn't had slightest idea this was coming and what behind the door no. 2 tomorrow and door no.5 after the obvious upgrades.

[TheFinalCD]

UPST

$UPST paid $75mm in stock-based comp this quarter on $103mm of revenues? What a joke! pic.twitter.com/wxbwTjpg3H

— Equities in Dallas (@bustedshort) May 9, 2023

Stock based comp as a percent of operating expenses jumped to 32% from 9% in the year ago period. So employees are now getting paid a lot more in stock than cash so $UPST can back it out of adjusted earnings. pic.twitter.com/77I3XEClXI

— Equities in Dallas (@bustedshort) May 9, 2023

[Triple nickle]

Really flyin now

[eastunder]

Upstart Announces First Quarter 2023 Results

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230509006181/en/Upstart-Announces-First-Quarter-2023-Results


May 09, 2023 04:05 PM Eastern Daylight Time
SAN MATEO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), a leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, today announced financial results for its first quarter of fiscal year 2023 ended March 31, 2023. Upstart will host a conference call and webcast at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time today. An earnings presentation and link to the webcast are available at ir.upstart.com.

“I’m pleased with the progress we made in Q1 against the objectives I set out last quarter,” said Dave Girouard, co-founder and CEO of Upstart. “Despite the headwinds facing our industry, we secured multiple long-term funding agreements, together expected to deliver more than $2 billion to the Upstart platform over the next 12 months.”

First Quarter 2023 Financial Highlights

Revenue. Total revenue was $103 million, a decrease of 67% from the first quarter of 2022. Total fee revenue was $117 million, a decrease of 63% year-over-year.
Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate. Lending partners originated 84,084 loans, totaling $997 million across our platform in the first quarter of 2023, down 78% from the same quarter of the prior year. Conversion on rate requests was 8% in the first quarter of 2023, down from 21% in the same quarter of the prior year.
Income (Loss) from Operations. Income (loss) from operations was ($132) million, down from $34.8 million in the same quarter of the prior year.
Net Income (Loss) and EPS. GAAP net income (loss) was ($129) million, down from $32.7 million in the first quarter of 2022. Adjusted net income (loss) was ($38.7) million, down from $58.6 million in the same quarter of the prior year. Accordingly, GAAP diluted earnings per share was ($1.58), and diluted adjusted earnings per share was ($0.47) based on the weighted-average common shares outstanding during the quarter.
Contribution Profit. Contribution profit was $67.6 million in the first quarter of 2023, down 54% year-over-year, with a contribution margin of 58% compared to a 47% contribution margin in the same quarter of the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was ($31.1) million, down from $62.6 million in the same quarter of the prior year. The first quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin was (30%) of total revenue, down from 20% in the same quarter of 2022.
Financial Outlook

For the second quarter of 2023, Upstart expects:

Revenue of approximately $135 million
Revenue From Fees of approximately $130 million
Net Interest Income (Loss) of approximately $5 million
Contribution Margin of approximately 60%
Net Income (Loss) of approximately ($40) million
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) of approximately ($7) million
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $0 million
Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 83.1 million shares
Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 83.1 million shares

[lvhd]

Absurd pump on horrible earnings

[eastunder]

UPST: 20.43 open gap cpps@ 24.70 + 4.49 (+22%) on 12.7m (above ave volume)

[eastunder]

nbkc bank Selects Upstart for Personal Lending

Thu, February 2, 2023 at 7:00 AM MST·
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nbkc-bank-selects-upstart-personal-140000564.html

KANSAS CITY, Mo. & SAN MATEO, Calif., February 02, 2023--(BUSINESS WIRE)--nbkc bank, a $1.1 billion-asset community bank, today announced that it has partnered with Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), a leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, to provide personal loans to more people across the communities it serves.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230202005433/en/

"At nbkc, our top priority is always to provide the best possible customer experience across every touch point to serve our community and customers," said Jenna Stricker, Director of Digital Lending for nbkc bank. "Our partnership with Upstart enables us to enhance our personal loan offering through an all-digital, modern personal lending experience that provides access to affordable credit to more creditworthy borrowers."

As a new Upstart lending partner since June 2022, nbkc is now part of the Upstart Referral Network. With the Upstart Referral Network, qualified personal loan applicants on Upstart.com who meet nbkc’s credit policies receive tailored offers as they seamlessly transition into an nbkc bank-branded experience to complete the online application and closing process.

"We're impressed with nbkc's dedication to providing useful loans with competitive rates that help borrowers reach their goals," said Michael Lock, SVP of Lending Partnerships for Upstart. "Through Upstart’s AI lending marketplace, nbkc is able to efficiently and cost-effectively deliver personal loans to new customers."

To learn more about the Upstart Referral Network, please visit https://www.upstart.com/for-banks/referral-network/ and watch this video.

About Upstart

Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) is a leading AI lending marketplace partnering with banks and credit unions to expand access to affordable credit. By leveraging Upstart’s AI platform, Upstart-powered banks and credit unions can have higher approval rates and lower loss rates across races, ages, and genders while simultaneously delivering the exceptional digital-first lending experience their customers demand. More than two-thirds of Upstart loans are approved instantly and are fully automated. Upstart was founded by ex-Googlers in 2012 and is based in San Mateo, California and Columbus, Ohio.

About nbkc bank

Kansas City-based nbkc is a diversified full-service banking company known for combining innovative technology and personal support to create exceptional client experiences. We offer nationwide, online home lending and consumer banking; community and commercial banking throughout our home region of Kansas City; and banking-as-a-service to fintech companies across the U.S. Formed in 1999, nbkc continues to pursue its mission of leading the industry to simpler and more transparent banking.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230202005433/en/

Contacts

Press Contacts
[e-mail]
[e-mail]

[eastunder]

But They don't report until 2/14 After hours.

And I show...

Short Interest Table
Percentage of Shares Outstanding 31.41
Number of Shares Short 25.72M
Number of Shares - Previous Month 27.14M
Short Interest Ratio (Days) 4.85
Short Interest Ratio - 1 Month Ago (Days)

What do you show?

Seems early to add to a short position - but I don't short, so I don't know crapolla. :)

[eastunder]

Upstart Is Reorganizing Again. What It Means for the Company's Future.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/31/upstart-is-reorganizing-again-what-it-means-for-th/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

By Bram Berkowitz – Jan 31, 2023 at 4:43PM

The company announced in a regulatory filing this morning that it is planning to lay off 20% of its workforce.

After a very difficult year in 2022 for the artificial intelligence-assisted lender Upstart (UPST 8.14%), more pain is coming.

The company announced in a regulatory filing this morning that in its latest reorganization efforts to get back to profitability, it will lay off 365 employees, or roughly 20% of its workforce. (Upstart laid off 140 hourly employees in November.) It will also put the build-out of its small-business lending product on pause until conditions improve.

The Federal Reserve's intense interest-rate hikes have really knocked the wind out of the company's sails after a massive year in 2021 that saw Upstart reach close to $400 per share. With the stock currently below $19, what does this latest reorganization mean for Upstart's future?

Expect struggles for most of the year

The new reorganization will result in $15 million of charges and a one-time $3 million noncash charge due to forfeited stock awards. But the layoffs are expected to generate $57 million of savings in operating expenses and noncash savings of $42 million related to stock-based compensation over the next three years.

In the near term, I would expect Upstart to continue to struggle for the majority of the year. The company is largely in the business of originating personal loans and auto loans to near-prime consumers, using proprietary algorithms to underwrite customers who might not normally be able to get a traditional bank loan or a traditional interest rate.

The company then sells the majority of its loans to institutional investors, while a smaller portion is sold to banks and credit unions. Fees from selling the loans are the company's main revenue source.

As the Fed has raised rates, institutional loan buyers have seen a higher cost of funding that is tied to the Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate, the federal funds rate. This in turn leads them to request higher returns on Upstart loans, which creates several problems.

Higher interest rates are going to naturally create less borrower demand to some extent, because some people won't borrow at higher rates and others will no longer qualify.

Upstart can reprice its loans higher, but there is a lag in timing. First, the Fed moves rates higher, then credit card companies raise their annual percentage rates, and then personal lenders (which typically refinance credit card debt) can follow suit. However, the Fed has moved so fast and aggressively that while Upstart has likely done some repricing, it has not been enough to keep up with funding costs.

The other issue is that many economists expect the U.S. to tip into a mild recession sometime this year, and high inflation has really cut into the financial health of many Americans, particularly in the near-prime space. So institutional investors likely have concerns about credit quality. As Upstart noted in its filing this morning, "many lenders and credit investors have significantly reduced or paused loan originations."

While most personal lenders are dealing with these headwinds, Upstart is uniquely challenged because it doesn't have access to cheaper funding sources like deposits. In the third quarter, Upstart reported a 31% drop in revenue from the prior quarter and a $56 million loss.

Can the company recover?

Once the Fed stops raising interest rates, which could happen in the first half of this year, that should allow Upstart to eventually reprice its loans better to meet investors' return thresholds.

Investors will also want more clarity about the trajectory of the economy, but I could see the marketplace for these personal loans returning to better levels in the back half of the year.

Over the longer term, however, Upstart really needs to address big parts of its strategy. The first is the funding model, because as we've seen over the last year, relying on investors to buy all of your loans can be a very cyclical and volatile strategy.

Upstart also needs to do a better job of showing how well its superior underwriting models work. I do think the company has shown some evidence of outperforming traditional models, but I don't think it's been enough to really win over the market yet.

[lvhd]

Added short. Earnings will be disappointed.

[eastunder]

UPST: Item 2.05 Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1647639/000164763923000006/upst-20230131.htm

On January 31, 2023, in response to the challenging macro environment where many lenders and credit investors have significantly reduced or paused loan originations, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (“Upstart”) implemented a plan of reorganization (the “January 2023 Plan”). The January 2023 Plan is designed to reduce operating costs, streamline operations and return Upstart to profitability. The January 2023 Plan involves a reduction of Upstart’s current workforce by approximately 20%, or approximately 365 employees.

Upstart estimates that it will incur approximately $15 million in total charges in connection with the January 2023 Plan. Upstart expects these charges to be in the form of future cash expenditures related to severance payments, employee benefits and taxes. In addition to these charges, Upstart expects to recognize approximately $3 million of one-time non-cash savings related to the reversal of previously expensed stock-based compensation associated with forfeited stock awards. Upstart expects that most of the charges and cash expenditures related to the January 2023 Plan will be incurred or completed in the quarter ending March 31, 2023.

When the January 2023 Plan is fully implemented, Upstart expects to realize cash savings of approximately $57 million in operating expenses, primarily related to employee cash compensation and benefits, over the next 12 months. Upstart also expects to realize additional non-cash savings of approximately $42 million related to stock-based compensation through 2025.

Upstart also plans to suspend development of its small business loan product until macroeconomic conditions improve.

Upstart may incur other charges or cash expenditures not currently contemplated as a result of or in connection with the January 2023 Plan. The Company intends to exclude any charges related to the January 2023 Plan from its calculation of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income.