United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)

[NewJerichoMan]

Blew through the 200-day MA and now testing the 50-day MA.

[NewJerichoMan]

UPS is popping this morning. Not sure why. Don't care. It was over-sold.

[NewJerichoMan]

UPS is a market stock. Stock should be inline for a good couple days with the debt ceiling drama, China drama, and other drama behind it for the moment.

[NewJerichoMan]

In for a flip at $178.xx. We'll see how she goes.

[NewJerichoMan]

Photo of Berkshire's returns for the past few years.




My returns are crushing his for the past couple years. AND my primary residence is nicer than his! Lol.

Lots of way to trade. No one is asking you to subscribe to my way of trading.

[bar1080]

Photo of Buffett's Omaha office showing computer used for charting and T/A. Oh, that's right. Buffett doesn't have a computer in his office. TA is utter nonsense. Tea leaves. He rarely trades his stocks. Has held some UPS for years.

[NewJerichoMan]

UPS on edge of losing major support: 200-day MA (daily chart).

Significant gap downward to high $170's. I think UPS's stock price trades in step with the overall market, as well as based on yield moreso than being driven by the company's performance. Yield is still low in the 2.2%ish range while the 10-year is at 1.5%ish.

Stock is significantly oversold and still in danger of dropping several more dollars. If that happens, I might have to buy back in for the bounce.

[NewJerichoMan]

UPS is a well-run company. I'm just surprised at what a laggard the stock has been during long stretches of the pandemic. It was basically $115 before the pandemic (late 2019) and today, it's precariously sitting above the 200-day MA ($184ish) at $185. That's a 60% increase, which is nothing to scoff at but it should be more. E-commerce will continue to expand and grow, and with it UPS's prospects.

[Prudent Capitalist]

Long term is positive for UPS holders and will be strong going forward.

[NewJerichoMan]

Below expectations. Pandemic was an absolute boon to this sector.

Compared to FedEx (the inferior company), they've lagged.


FedEx vs UPS

[ChuckD-MSB]

They have went from $90 to as high as $219 over the past year plus paid over $4 a share in dividends.
Wish all my holdings acted like this "dog". Lol.
Just saying.....

[NewJerichoMan]

For as well-run of a company as UPS is their stock is certainly acts like a dog. Made a few day trades to potentially re-establish my position with UPS but I'm not sure I want to now. Lol.

[BottomBounce]

United Parcel Service, Inc. $UPS

Total Debt (mrq) $26.81B
Book Value Per Share (mrq) $8.22

[Prudent Capitalist]

JP Morgan ups price target to $243 and upgrades to "Overweight". The recent dip in UPS shares presents a tremendous buying opportunity.

[Stenix82]

Buy some calls.

[bar1080]

That's some worthless information.

"such as perhaps...the basic form of how the stock market moves around on any time frame..." ???

[stocktrademan]

UPS buy 216.38

nice bull flag pause here before it takes off to the next level...
such as perhaps...the basic form of how the stock market moves around on any time frame...

https://www.google.com/search?q=bull+flag+measured+move



https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UPS/profile?p=UPS

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/UPS

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=UPS

https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=UPS

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=UPS,uu[e,a]dhclyiay[uu][pb5!b10!b50!b100!b200!d20,2!h.02,.20!f][vb5!b20][iut!lv8!lk9!LE12,26,9!ll14!la6,13,5!la8,17,9!la12,26,9!uc14!ub14!ub6!lo!lp7,3!lh9,3!LI14,3!lxa!ld8!lq!lg14!lf14][j20444984,y]&r=3555b

https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/UPS/technical-chart?plot=CANDLE&volume=total&data=DO&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=1&indicators=TREND&sym=UPS&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100&timeframe=2%20Months




normal chart









log chart









normal chart








log chart

[bar1080]

Now $205! UPS keeps rising. Wonder whether Buffett is adding. I said that a few months ago, and he wasn't.

[Prudent Capitalist]

I believe UPS was a Todd Combs or Ted Weschler stock buy. With regard to Todd, even though BRK apparently divested its large position in JPM, Todd Combs was still on the proxy for reelection to the JPM board.

[bar1080]

When in doubt -- which is the normal situation with investments -- remember this advice: "The More You Trade, The More You Lose"

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profilea.aspx?user=42712

Warren Buffett should be ashamed that he's held a token amount of UPS for years but never expanded it to a meaningfully sized investment for BRK.

[NewJerichoMan]

Ouch. $191 in pre-trading. Swing-and-a-miss!

[bar1080]

"UPS soars after earnings blowout, FedEx gains as well"
Apr. 27, 2021 7:20 AM ET

* UPS (NYSE:UPS) shoots higher after posting a strong Q1 report.

* Revenue jumped 27% Y/Y during the quarter to $22.91B and consolidated operating profit was 158% higher to $2.8B.

* Total volume was up 14.3% during the quarter.

* The U.S. domestic segment saw a 22.3% increase in revenue, led by growth from small and medium-sized businesses. Revenue per piece increased 10.2% in the U.S., driven by ground products.

* CEO update: "During the quarter, we continued to execute our strategy under the better not bigger framework, which enabled us to win the best opportunities in the market and drove record financial results."

* Looking ahead, UPS expects capital expenditures of about $4.0B this year and has no plans to buy back shares.

* Shares of UPS are up 6.94% premarket to $188.01. Rival FedEx (NYSE:FDX) is 2.98% higher. to $282.91."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3685971-ups-soars-after-earnings-blowout-fedex-gains-as-well

[NewJerichoMan]

Don't buy/sell like penny players.

But in CoVid year, it was the best penny player paradise this side of 2009.

I didn't sell UPS because it was a "winner", I was trying to time the market, juice up its returns, because it was a big fat laggard that vexed me on the daily. Eight months wasted for a 9% return. If only I had bought FedEx...

[bar1080]

Don't buy/sell like penny players. This article should be of help with your UPS investing.

---
"Selling Winners And Holding Losers - Even The Smartest Investors Get It Wrong

The study of how human instinct impacts on investment decisions is hotly debated and sometimes controversial. But even Ben Graham, the father of value investing, was aware of the potential for investors to err. He famously warned that "the investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself."

One of the best known behavioural trap-doors is to hang onto losing investments for too long and sell winning positions too soon. It's a phenomenon known as the Disposition Effect. For years, researchers have warned that investors can damage returns by cutting winners and riding losers. Often, this warning has been pitched in the direction of relatively unsophisticated retail investors. But new research suggests that the same behavioral flaw exists in some of the market's smartest and best-informed traders - Short Sellers.

It serves as a reminder that the risk of succumbing to selling the wrong positions is something every investor needs to be aware of. So here's a review of how things can go wrong and why smart investors are susceptible too.

"Some of the best research into the consequences of all this was done by [Berkeley Professor] Terrance Odean, who waded through 10,000 accounts held at an American discount broker between 1987 and 1993. He found a clear tendency for investors to sell winning positions over losing positions. Moreover, there was no good reason for it - there was no evidence that these investors were deliberately rebalancing their portfolios. On average, after one year, the losing stock, that was held, fell by 1.0% against the market. While the winning stock, that was sold, actually gained 2.4% above the market."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3716166-selling-winners-and-holding-losers-even-smartest-investors-get-wrong

[NewJerichoMan]

I lost on this one. It had been fairly range bound but broke out to the upside on this one.

[bar1080]

Anytime you sell a stock there's a 52% chance you made a mistake, according to academic research. That's why I rarely sell my blue chips. Of course, I only buy quality stocks like UPS to begin with.

[NewJerichoMan]

I picked a bad week to sell my UPS shares.

[bar1080]

Blade will be coming to an IPO soon. For now, UPS is a way of buying into that tech. I was looking at some YT videos on those "planes."

[Prudent Capitalist]

There was a feature on these and UPS's purchase on CNBC one morning last week, including extensive video, etc.

[bar1080]

Likely why UPS stock is hot this week:

"Electric Vertical Aircraft Gain Momentum After UPS Order"

"Vermont-based Beta Technologies has announced a second order within a week for its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Last week, an order from United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) helped to validate the technology, according to Beta founder Kyle Clark. Today, Blade Urban Air Mobility announced plans to become the first to use the technology for passenger transport.

Blade is an urban air mobility platform that currently offers helicopter, seaplane, and executive jet service in select locations including New York City, Los Angeles, South Florida, and vacation destinations like Aspen, Colorado. The companies announced that Blade has ordered up to 20 of Beta's passenger-designed Electric Vertical Aircraft (EVA) with delivery beginning in late 2024. Last week, UPS agreed to take 10 cargo models of the aircraft, also scheduled to begin arriving in 2024, with an option to purchase up to 150 in total. "

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/13/electric-vertical-aircraft-gain-momentum-after-ups/

[Prudent Capitalist]

I haven't seen anything in particular either. The Annual Report and Proxy materials came from UPS a few days ago, and I am looking forward to reading everything in detail this week.

[bar1080]

$178, a surprise record high! Don't see any news on UPS.

[bar1080]

Ha! For that moment I forgot about BRK's tiny UPS holding. $10,168,000 or less than 1/10th of a percent. UPS's All-time high IS around $175.

[Prudent Capitalist]

And these will continue to grow and increase going forward, much to the delight of us and Warren Buffett, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler

[bar1080]

UPS Q Dividends Past 5-years

  Date	           Dividends 
 Feb 19, 2021	1.02 Dividend 
 Nov 12, 2020	1.01 Dividend 
 Aug 21, 2020	1.01 Dividend 
 May 22, 2020	1.01 Dividend 
 Feb 24, 2020	1.01 Dividend 
 Nov 15, 2019	0.96 Dividend 
 Aug 16, 2019	0.96 Dividend 
 May 17, 2019	0.96 Dividend 
 Feb 25, 2019	0.96 Dividend 
 Nov 16, 2018	0.91 Dividend 
 Aug 17, 2018	0.91 Dividend 
 May 18, 2018	0.91 Dividend 
 Feb 16, 2018	0.91 Dividend 
 Nov 10, 2017	0.83 Dividend 
 Aug 10, 2017	0.83 Dividend 
 May 11, 2017	0.83 Dividend 
 Feb 16, 2017	0.83 Dividend 
 Nov 09, 2016	0.78 Dividend 
 Aug 12, 2016	0.78 Dividend 
 May 12, 2016	0.78 Dividend

[NewJerichoMan]

Making another run at $175. We'll see...

[NewJerichoMan]

UPS has been inspiring lately. Since the big move last summer, it's basically been range-bound between $155 and $175. I'm dubious of it breaking above $175 at this time.

[bar1080]

She doesn't tell how UPS raises their rates ~5% EVERY year when inflation is about 1%. My company uses the US mail more and more for deliveries.

I still own a small amount of UPS stock but haven't added since my first buy a decade ago.

[Prudent Capitalist]

I watched our CEO, Carol Tome, on Mad Money last week, and she did a great job. made me want to mortgage the home again to load up on UPS. Here is a clip I found on a portion of her appearance:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=carol+tome&docid=13894455491179&mid=93D08566AF9277DBA80993D08566AF9277DBA809&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

[NewJerichoMan]

Ditto on long-term. Still annoys me even though it shouldn't.

[pack10]

You might be interested to know the CEO is scheduled to be on Mad Money on CNBC tonight.

She might shed some light on the company unknown to us. I'm in this for the long term, which I feel is very good.

[NewJerichoMan]

I find the daily price action strange.

Given the macro-environment (hyper bullish), the shares were never "darlings" of this pandemic, and they should have been IMO. The day I bought UPS, it was a choice between UPS and FDX. I figured FDX might have more short-term upside (boy, did they) but over the long-haul, it was UPS each and every day. Now, UPS beat earnings and the market is still pretty much yawning. I don't get it.

[pack10]

It's time for a new post.

UPS is the top of the line. They are the best run operation of all the delivery carriers.

Their latest financials show just how well run of a company they are. Take it from someone who used then and others in my working years.

Just say'n

[NewJerichoMan]

Agreed. All I see around my neighborhood at night are Amazon, FedEx, UPS, and USPS trucks. Long-term trend toward e-commerce has been accelerated.

Not sure why I've been sweating the small stuff. It's golden long-term even if CoVid gets "solved". Didn't expect this consolidation leg to take so long.

[Prudent Capitalist]

With reports of widespread shipping gridlock and a backlog of packages to pick up from shippers, UPS has to be literally printing $$$$$ right now.

[NewJerichoMan]

UPS is sitting on top of the 50-day moving average.

Time to stop trading sideways and pick a direction.

[NewJerichoMan]

Is UPS gonna behave like Zoom today?

Stock market going crazy but the stocks helped by CoVid get dinged? That's okay. The trend toward e-commerce is going to remain strong and unbroken. Give it a couple days, maybe let a few runners, run, and then rebalance toward UPS for longer-term horizon.

[Prudent Capitalist]

Rebounding strongly today. The sell down yesterday made no sense given the stellar earnings report.

[bar1080]

Off 9%. Extraordinary.

[NewJerichoMan]

Unexpected. Market is getting a beat down. UPS is getting a more severe beat down. Obviously it's short-term but unexpectedly nonetheless.