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Hey woops - I'm in a different time zone for a couple weeks, but am watching now.
My model is all over the place, saying 16% chance downturn this week of 200 pts to 580 pts. down on the dow. Crazy!
Looks like I might lose a few grand...but I'll keep holding those options til they expire at weeks end.
Any updates on your model percentages? These are unusual days for this stock.
If my model is correct, we should go down close to 3oo points (285 to 305 is what it says).
They percent of probablities has gone down to around 40%.
We will see!
thanks. do you know what that would make the dow go down to ... about?
Hey woops -
I'm taking a chance this week on some options that expire at the end of the week, as I see nearly a 50% chance of a major downside move this week. Either I'll lose a few grand or make a big score!
GLTU!
looking good now days.
Bought Oct calls @ 19 - looking to buy more
I haven't done futures trading.
Nice posts and a couple of good interviews. Have to say I agree with most of what both of them said. I agreed with all their general directions with the exception of non gold commodities which I trade daily - and with the changing weather patterns, more people, more fires, weaker dollar etc I see the food commodities as going up. On the direction of the US mrkt I agree in general, but I think we will have a hit in the next couple months, then some recovery before a bigger hit next year.
Just my opinion.
Good interviews - like the first one I see long term cycles in play.
Thanks woops!
Do you do calls? I have been buying TWM Sep calls @ 24 and Oct @ 24
I am holding.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62419728
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62446396/
second gives some specific timing.
Let me know what you think.
Hey woops - are you selling, buying or holding? I think we will have a good Sep here!
Closed at 22.81
Love the model
Looking good today.
My model says 80% chance we close higher than now (22.40)
More to come! (slept in this am)
Looking good today. Serious economy structural problems.
Thanks, I hope you do too. See you next week.
I agree on your overall view. Just reducing a very small amount - I'm a little too heavy here and with the dollar moving today I want to increase some of my commodities.
Have a good w/e woops!
auroradude
i'm going to sit tight again. i haven't cashed any yet, its tempting, but i still believe in the overall picture of down economy.
Currently, my highest projection for today is 23.08
Sell is right here - 22.56
55% chance we see higher today - but I'm cutting out early.
what are your strikes today?
yeah, i'm thinking the same thing, but there is still bad news coming out. however, it is up and down within a range.
The damage has already been done. The down trend is inevitable.
I may return as mod - I don't know yet. But I will still post here.
Today looks good for us, maybe the start of a real downward mrkt. trend that could be profitable.
GL!!
why are you resigning as mod? just take some time off instead.
Next target 21.83
Order in to sell @ 21.13
I have no idea. I am a neophyte at best. I am long term short because debt is huge (43 cents borrowed for every dollar spent) and spending is 10 billion a day avg [.43 cents times 10 billion times 365 day divided by 300 million people is $5,231 more debt per person per year than the 43,000 per person already owed based on 13 trillion, but some argue entitlements make 13 trillion actually 100 trillion which would make individual debt $331,000). There is very little the gov. can do now (interest rates for example and how much more stimulus is willing to be spent?)that hasn't been done. Just today, Cal Thomas in "We are reaping what we've sown" article on america's lost moral compass says "America...is on the verge of economic insolvency." I read a very good article that says that the gov. will be forced to eventually devalue the debt and that means not just inflation, but hyper inflation. Other than that, life is good. :)
What are your thoughts for the rest of the week?
Won't set them for a while yet - still watching. Hope I don't miss out!
what are your price points today?
I'd rather be lucky than good! lol!!!!
Very much so. You did good yesterday not getting out.
Looks like higher price today!
Will take some profit - no target set yet.
You should have said 20.23, not 20.32!!!
Oh well, We will see what tomorrow brings!
Yeah - been REALLY busy with futures mrkt.
Still think we will see much higher prices soon, but I need to take some TWM profits.
wondering where you were. thanks, we could definitely see 20.32
Will take some profits today if we hit 20.32
Dow down over 150 points!
She's flying now!!!
My model is indicating a 1 in 3 chance of DJIA closing down over 150 points today.
Doubt it, but we will see...
GM woops.
Planning any buys or sells today? Personally I am very heavily in - won't be buying unless I see some 17's.
GL!
Lower than what it should go.
I'd have to re evaluate at the time - right now 18.11
Doubt we see it...
what would you buy at today?
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UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares
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