ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2X ETF (UCO)

[acrazjo]

Why the dump in oil? Sitting in DWT and liking this action....

[purty lines]

On the subject of oil, we haven't seen much positive movement in the first 30 minutes of "crazy time", so I would expect the general downtrend to continue for most of the day. I would expect us to test at least 50 perhaps 49.8+/- today. JMHO

[purty lines]

I'll second that TMM. Prayers are being sent for them and their loved ones.

[toomuchmoney]

UCO

;O)

[toomuchmoney]

blessings to all those in Las Vegas,

:O(

[pleeb01]

In that case.... "QUE DA DUMP"!

[kamakiri]

When also considering Thursday's price action, it seems likely that short covering was done. Today is pretty solid confirmation.

[pleeb01]

Good morning all. Looks like some downside coming in for oil here. Trade well and good luck.

[pleeb01]

Would love to hear your take on it Kam. Have a great weekend all. See what Sunday brings for oil.

[BOS-MMT]

Any hints you got? Waiting for the info for next week. We hold 9EMA which looks bullish so far

[kamakiri]

Looking for hints that short 'fuel' is out. CoT report in 17 mins.

[pleeb01]

There's that spike into the close.

[pleeb01]

I see that fail attempt now back to where it was all day. I see maybe one more small move into NYMEX close then that's all folks. For this week.

[toomuchmoney]

$54 oil??? I like that a lot, UCO, I like you a lot better

;O)

[kamakiri]

US Rigs:+5, Oil Rigs:+6 to 750 and +325 YoY

[kamakiri]

I think it's mostly capped in this range. Already showing a backwardation 'bump' in the Feb/mar 18 contracts. Otherwise very tight range across the strip. Less than a $1 spread between now and Mar '19. We're at or near the top.

[kamakiri]

I'd like to think so, but not quite ready to call for dump just yet.

[kamakiri]

So far this is about all the upside I predicted for the day. A test toward the $52 level and specifically into the $51.7X or $51.8x range. We'll see if that holds true through NYMEX and market closes. IOW, I'm calling this the long side sell point for the day.

[pleeb01]

Moving up into the rig count. Let's see if it hits 52...

[pleeb01]

51.50 looking heavy for oil. Need s to get above $52 to continue. IMO

[pleeb01]

Good luck to you my friend. I'm still of the mind that this could try for $55 in the coming weeks. Then I think we'll see some drops come in. With that said, yesterday's break down was pretty steep, we'll have to see how it plays. Trade it well which ever way it goes.

[JRT]

Added a few D this morning. I think the run has run out of gas. LOL

[pleeb01]

Good morning all, looks like we didn't see that morning pop, let see what oil wants to do today. Trade well, and good luck.

[pleeb01]

In some U product for an overnight swing, I'm playing for same action premarket as we've seen the past few days/weeks. I think the odds are in favor of WTI trying to close the gap with Brent and US crude will show higher export numbers. I think EIA reports monthly stats tomorrow, is that right? Let's see how this plays. Good luck to all was a great day today for bulls and bears. See you all tomorrow.

[kamakiri]

That wouldn't be very efficient. I assume that these prices are near the money. Selling that call caps your earnings and the strategy starts net debit anyway. If you expect volatility, then buying the calls and puts outright should pay better.

[BOS-MMT]

Here is a drop. Money starts rotating to other sections to pop index again. Wow

[kamakiri]

lol.Yeah,*when* it's working!

[kamakiri]

??? I'm confused.What underlying ticker?FWIW, I don't sell/write often. I am usually long/buyer of options.

[pleeb01]

And that time machine helps just a bit.

[kamakiri]

Thanks! Just lucky.

[pleeb01]

Nice whips so far this morning better than yesterday. Gonna play the upside now.

[GuTA]

Would this work being long Via calls?

Buy $12c
Sell $12.5c
Buy $11.5p

Assuming the prices were appropriate ?

[toomuchmoney]

UCO OIL,

;O)

[purty lines]

Good morning Pleeb, and good luck to you as well!

[pleeb01]

Good morning all. Looks like oil took that leg up ''tis morning. Now just as it did the past few days I think we continue to see the chop. Wait for a pull back then go long, then short once it stalls out. That's my plan for today's plays let see how I do. Good luck, and trade well.

[pleeb01]

Black candle forming a doji today... WUE DA DUMP!

[pleeb01]

Tempted to fade this here for a scalp. Same pattern all day.

[pleeb01]

I still think we need to see it break over HOD.

[pleeb01]

Looks like a little action into NYMEX close.

[Ownwallstreet]

Pretty accurate, nice job.

[pleeb01]

I think if WTI didn't break over HOD we'll se that dump today. Seems to testing that area now.

[kamakiri]

I'm game. I'm always making predictions. Right or wrong, one can always learn from the outcome.

Back in Feb (2/25), my 'long term' post 3/15 fed move view for 2017 was:

WTI: Down to mid-low $40s and rebound, maybe up towards $60.
Precious metals: Generally up
DXY: Target 90.X
TLT: Down to the meeting, then generally up
DJIA: 22,000+ (this is actually an old prediction, from 2015)

[kamakiri]

Loaded up for the downside. Hedges mostly otm now. IF I'm wrong, I wanna be BIG wrong! Good luck guys!

[pleeb01]

I hope so too for you my friend, but I'm not the most experienced on here. I'm sure many others here can provide better insight.

[purty lines]

Hope you're right about the 40's over the next couple months.

[pleeb01]

I'm thinking $55 max short term this week and next. Longer than that I think we revisit the high to mid $40's end of Oct-mid Nov. That's $45-$48 area. After that I'll wait and see. But it will be choppy on the way down and intra day scalps will be very nice. Trade well all.

[purty lines]

Gosh , I've learned that I'm not very good at this trading over the day, but I'm a little more cocky on the longer trends. Just for grins though I see wti about $10 bucks higher by end of april, say $61.35. Again just for fun. Short term I'd like it to test 48 real dang soon!

[longymickshort]

True unless your longer term (Not my gig). then don't watch or your gonna want to get out so oil in December? Lets do some predictions and analysis.
It would be interesting to see where you guys are at good traders here and right more often than not.

Maybe I will throw a grand at some longer term options just for kicks. Kam you game? TMM? lets hear your trade. If its just a paper trade thats fine too. Who is game ? Lets do this next week if anyone is interested.

[pleeb01]

Glad I didn't play that short. Learned a valuable lesson about not playing when I can't watch.

[pleeb01]

Yes nice heads up on the action was able to do nicely this morning before work scalping U and D product between $52 and $51.60's today. At work now so just watching. Tempted to trade some D for that NYMEX close. But prob won't. Trade well today Kam.