U.S. China Mining Group Inc fka SGZH

[kuwlness]

NITE only seller in the single digits. $10.40+ coming soon to a theater near you.

[kuwlness]

Yep, sux having a big position here ... but dont want to miss the quick break-out to $10+

Just trying to figure out if it's worth selling now and re-adding before Q earnings. No movement, miniscule volume, could easily see $7.50 before $10+ ... tough one we have on our hands, that's for sure.

Not to mention the MMs blocking the SAR from being triggered as they move their Ask down little by little to hold it back.

[Traderfan]

This stock is killing me honestly. No movement at all and not even marginable. I'm getting seriously impatient on this one.

[kuwlness]

They just wont let that SAR get triggered. Grrrrrr, three MMs at 8.47 - 8.49 while SAR is 8.50.

[kuwlness]

Cheap shares are falling from the sky ... right into my pocket

[zbuckley]

Does anyone know what is going on with the mining rights for sgzh? It looks as though they have to pay for their mining rights for Sheng Yu in 2009 and 2010 for Xing An. Do they have the chance of losing the rights to those mines in those years? Or do they just have to pay for them? Does anyone know places to look at coal price trends or to learn more about the future of coal prices in China?
Thanks
Zack

[Traderfan]

Probably a tax seller here at SGZH. I mean there was good volume above 10 over a few weeks.

[BiotechValues]

yea- that's my take.

I got some starters at $8

[kuwlness]

Too cheap, added more myself ... someone probably got tired of the low volume and wants out

[Traderfan]

Ask at 8. Seems as if somebody wants out today.

[Drexion2004]

Hehe, my PUDA position is only 10% what it will be once I know the financing details. After listening to Ms. Laby Wu talk at the conference, I am not so confident in her ability to get good terms from American Investors. Besides, it isn't as if PUDA is the only game in town with SGZH/LLFH around. If i'm wrong and the thing skyrockets without me, i'm ok with my current coal exposure.

If I didn't have LLFH/SGZH around, i'd be much closer to your PUDA percentage ownership.

-Fernando

[Traderfan]

Well make no mistake, my PUDA position is around 60% as big as I will have it once I know the financing details. I just don't want to be left behind in case they don't dilute any further or in case they got a good price or whatever. The rest will be bought once the details are out.

[Drexion2004]

Until PUDA does its financing, i'd much rather own LLFH...Thats why my LLFH position is significantly larger than my PUDA one. Plus PUDA never got below $5.2, so LLFH was significantly cheaper when I added to my core position.

Once we know at what price they will raise the cash needed for the phase-1 consolidation, my coal percentage allocations will change i'm sure.

-Fernando

[bUrRpPPP!]

Other China coal plays up nice today....LLFH 4.84% and PUDA up 4.58%....and I still like SGZH the best....

[Traderfan]

Yeah I agree. SGZH was my favourite coal company until the Q3 numbers came out. I was able to sell at 9.50 that day and I now bought everything back with an average of 8.50 or so. So I did spare myself 1 buck which is fine.

I see people are quite shy right now after the Q3 results and I understand that. Q4 numbers are far away right now. If they don't come through with their Nasdaq listing in the last few days of this year I think you can buy a lot of shares below 9 bucks in the beginning of january. That's the only possible catalyst right now for a stock price move. But it's pending already so who knows.

To be honest it seems I miss out on LLFH. I never bought it before the earnings day just a few days ago and got it at 5.60 or so at that day but sold it pretty early again because there was no movement and I was on margin as well and this damn stock is not marginable so I let it go. Suffice to say after the PR the stock went up without me and I didn't reenter it in the last 2 days when it did visit the 5.85 area twice again. Stupid me but one can't have all the stocks.

I figure with SGZH and PUDA I have enough exposure to coal for my portfolio now and I had to decide with what I will go for the mid term, either PUDA or LLFH and decided to take PUDA for now due to higher potential but of course it's a bit more risky. LLFH is cheap as well of course.

SGZH should at least go to 15 within 4 months from today, that's my hope and my believe. Of course only if Q4 numbers come in like expected.

[kuwlness]

Coal is the next commodity that is starting a new bull-run IMO ... we've had Ag running for a few months. Coal stocks like SGZH, PUDA, and LLFH will likely yield a higher ROI in coming months IMO and this is the only one that has gone largely unnoticed -- hence the low volume we've been experiencing the last few weeks.

I believe the sub-$10 range for this stock is about to come to an abrupt end over the next few weeks. Worth keeping a low-ball bid open on this one just in case.

[Drexion2004]

Yep, i'm actually 5-10% into margin right now. Absolutely no cash to allocate to anything unless I unload something =P. I try not to exceed 10% margin, so it would take a fantastic opportunity for me to do so.

Q4 is a big mining quarter for SGZH as the ground freezes (It was COLD this winter BTW) and they use dynamite to mine. So the mine that produced 0 tons in Q3 will do very well in Q4. Add that to the fact that Thermal coal prices skyrocketed in November...

Its hard to see a way to lose money in SGZH by buying now and waiting for Q4 results.

Those worried about the Q3 drop have valid concerns, but note what dropped: It was the brokered coal segment (mainly). Given how cheap the company is right now there are way way more catalysts to drive the price much higher than catalysts to drive it lower. We need to remember that this is *not* a consumer discretionary item they are selling, people *need* coal and what matters is how much they produce. Someone *will* buy it at some point, regardless of what happens with a customer.

Consider what they will do with all that cash on their books, we are bound to hear about a use for that cash before too long.

I'm obviously bullish on coal right now and LLFH has gone up significantly since I was buying a month ago around $4.5. I'm bullish on LLFH but I gotta reallocate some cash into the stocks that didn't move, without reducing my coal exposure =)... That means more SGZH.

-Fernando

[Traderfan]

Why can't you buy the shares now? Are you already fully invested?


I'm just praying we remain at this price level until the beginning of January so I can triple my SGZH position.

[Traderfan]

I'm not sure on this. I'm still scratching my head over this one. It indeed is a bit a mystery that they lost that much business because of one customer.

[GorillaGorilla]

What do people think about the boiler of major firm being closed down for 1 month having so much affect on revenue?

I thought possible reasons were:
1) The company ordering the coal knew they were going to close down and reduced their coal orders in the preceeding months.
2) SGZH have a certain contract volume for the month and weren't in a hurry to use them up - perhaps wanting to use more in Winter when they get better prices?

Am I just a hopeless optomist?

rich

[Drexion2004]

Owning a stock that doesn't move is frustrating when you see your other positions burst upwards, huh?

I'm just praying we remain at this price level until the beginning of January so I can triple my SGZH position.

-Fernando

[bUrRpPPP!]

Patiently waiting for up-listing news.....

[drluck]

In Radar

[supper9]

seems like a good entry point.
i'll add this to my portfolio
along with LLFH.

[kuwlness]

It's coming burp, I can feel that SAR getting triggered any day now ... NITE only seller under $10

[BiotechValues]

I'm on the 8.55 now

bastards won't fill me and I'm too damn cheap to hit the ask!

[bUrRpPPP!]

BINGO!

[kuwlness]

MMs keeping the Ask down as to not trigger the SAR before they scare out some more shares.

[kuwlness]

Yep, SGZH is the winner over the short-term IMO ... up-list next year and it could be the 2010 winner as well.

[bUrRpPPP!]

Coal..step right up and pick your coal stocks! .PUDA PKOL SGZH KOL LLFH LD .....I think SGZH is the one! SAR trigger tomorrow at 8.99.....WEEEEEEE!

[Traderfan]

Bought a few more here today. Can't believe that they still didn't announce the nasdaq listing application. I figure shares at 9 will look good within 5 weeks from now.

[kuwlness]

This is set to explode any day ... MMs dont have many shares and no institutional buyers yet. When these folks want shares, they'll happily be paying us $15+ IMO

[libertycola]

Started a position at 8.95, this thing won't have a 4 p/e for long once it's listed NASDAQ.

[kuwlness]

Registered sector is hardly invested here ... i think that'll be changing soon.

PPS @ time of post: $8.99

[kuwlness]

If not tomorrow, in the not too distant future we see $10.50 ... SAR is set to be triggered very soon and will bring in the volume.

Will we see new highs and break $12? I believe we will with up-listing news. Stay tuned

[kuwlness]

Tomorrow is the big day IMO ... we'll be watching this one for the $10.50 hit

[bUrRpPPP!]

Already moving..just flashed $10.50 ask....won't be long.

[kuwlness]

NITE is the only seller under $10.50 ... once he's done liquidating, we'll move up fast. Especially if we get that up-listing news soon which seems likely after yesterday's filing

[GorillaGorilla]

While we await the restatements...

They were saying that they were going to release restatements for each quarter but in the meantime they were using restated accounts in last quarter - and this included table with 9 months restated.

They have 9 months restated for 2008 in the tables - and this took EPS from 1.56 to 1.29 or 83% of the original. Assuming it stays with same drop in Q4 I have $1.44 for FY 2008.

In 2009 I had 1.71 for first 9 months and this has been revised down to 1.57. So I'm figuring adjusting Q3 up $0.04, thanks to the boiler and then at least doing 2008's Q4 * 83%, $0.32 they should do, bad case, around $1.93 for the year - If that's the case we have P/E of 4 and around 34% growth Y/Y.

Coal prices are looking good at the moment so that should support the Earnings - I don't know if they are going to dig more coal out next year?

comments?

rich

[kuwlness]

Yep, adding on the cheap these last few days ... lovin' it!

[Drexion2004]

Its been fun buying more shares around $8. I'm ready to go back to $12+ now please!

All my coal plays have been getting hammered lately, PUDA/LLFH/SGZH... If I keep nibbling, i'll soon have a charcoal colored portfolio!

-Fernando

[kuwlness]

One seller at $8.59, everyone else $9.97+

[kuwlness]

Wasnt me. I had an order at $6.06 hoping for a lucky buy like that, missed it today. Been buying on the bid all day

[bradford86]

i want whoever got the $6 shares to speak up.

bet it was just the mm or something.. taking advantage of a market sell.

[kuwlness]

OK this can go back up, I got all the shares I need ... lol

[kuwlness]

OMG, saw 900 go thru at $6 ... shouldve left that bid open, damnit

[kuwlness]

This looks ready to run. Big seller at $9 almost out of shares. Could easily see $9.25 - $10.50 with some buying, not many sellers on L2

[kuwlness]

It looks hopeful earlier, but then ARCA upped his bid to 2500 shares at $8.50. Now I'll just have to join him

[bUrRpPPP!]

I don't think you will have sellers under $8 imo but it never hurts to have a net out to catch someone who throws money out the window....

[kuwlness]

Grabbed some $8.75s. Could hit $6 with enough sellers. I'm waiting for more t $6.06 ... anyone wanna cause some more panic selling for me?