Tween Brands (TWB)

[umiak]

http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2010/8/26/hdcnmshoes.jpg

[Rawnoc]

Posted by: the big guy Date: Sunday, April 05, 2009 3:29:45 AM
In reply to: None Post # of 405

Hello out there. You know.. been looking at this stock. Not sure what you guys are all excited about. The spelling of this thing is pretty close to "dweeb", which about describes any investor who would buy it right now. The chart is poor, just doing a jigsaw pattern downwards. The latest upswing is nothing more than the latest jag. I though it was a bit upward chart at first, but when you look at the bigger picture it is nothing but a continuation of the same jagged pattern.

and the earnings report is lousy. Poor. Nothing to get excited about. Another struggling retail company getting hammered and just starting to cut costs..

yawn.

[Rawnoc]

Tween Brands beats by $0.26, beats on revs; DBRN merger expected to be completed in calendar Q4 (TWB) 7.33 : Reports Q2 (Jul) loss of $0.11 per share, $0.26 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.37); revenues fell 8.1% year/year to $205.1 mln vs the $198.9 mln consensus, driven predominantly by a 12% decline in comparable store sales. On June 25, 2009, the co announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement with Dress Barn, Inc. (DBRN) pursuant to which a subsidiary of Dress Barn will merge with the co in a stock-for-stock transaction. The transaction continues on track with an anticipated completion in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2009.

[Rawnoc]

TWB bought out. Massive gain realized for all for hundreds of percents in profit. Play over.

Therefore I resign as assistant moderator.

[Rawnoc]

Yup, they should have held on for $20 - $60/share. However, it's possible that they were being bought out with stock that is likewise 4-10 times undervalued so it makes no difference.

[the big guy]

Get a load of this. Shareholder class action lawsuit? Seems as if some people feel the price was a bit low and since the principles got jobs in the new company, it looks a bit suspicious...

http://howardsmithlaw.com/TakeoverCases/TweenBrands.html

[the big guy]

This was a tongue-in-cheek comment. Anyway.. this stock did seem to defy the numbers a bit, but then I am not really a retail guy, so I just don't understand the stock dynamics. Stocks do weird things, and those are the most profitable. Like AZD, another stock I follow went from .04 to .35. I still do not really understand why. They make hybrid drivetrains for trucks. Neat little company with horrible financials. So what do you do, wait until it goes down to .04 again..? lol..

I have seen stocks go up on takeover rumors.. possibly that was what happened with AZD.

[Rawnoc]

His target was $1.00 he was only off by 560%

I wonder how far he'd be off if he was wrong? LOL

[seeksup]

Help me understand. You are still right because they were taken over at a huge premium?

Seems to me they were taken over because of the huge upside; if you were right, they would have been taken over at much lower values.

Doesn't matter though and it's probably useless to ask.

[Rawnoc]

And the takeover was because they knew what we knew -- TWB is/was a screaming fist-pounding no-brainer to be loaded up huge on. :)

Too bad you missed out on one of the easiest opportunities ever. The value was obvious, there, spelled out, and handed to you on a silver platter all dressed up in an inverse spinglefluke formation for further confirmation.

Tsk, tsk. We scored huge. Better luck next time champ. :)

[the big guy]

Well... I was right after all. It is obvious that the reason for the otherwise inexplicable prices rise from 1.00 was because of the imminent takeover. It was quite clearly in play. Therefore neither the vaunted spinglefluke formation NOR the advice of the Moderators in this case had anything to do with it.

Quid Pro Quo.... the Big Guy.

Congratulations everyone.

[Rawnoc]

Inverted spinglefluke = flawless EOM

[BRIG_88]

Last post here...made my bank....adios

[waikikian]

Sold @ 6.55 thanks Mike/Raw

[waikikian]

OK Tweeners....I know nothing about Dress Barn (DBRN) but at .47 of current share price (13.65 pre).....6.41 looks like a sell to me. Anyone agree?

[waikikian]

Dress Barn To Buy Tween Brands For $157M In Stock

Last Update: 6/25/2009 8:57:57 AM



By Nicholas Casey
Of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


Women's retailer Dress Barn Inc. (DBRN) said Thursday it would acquire Tween
Brands Inc. (TWB) in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $157 million, in a sign
the weak retail market is spurring consolidation.

Dress Barn, of Suffern, N.Y., will swap 0.47 shares for each Tween Brands share,
a premium of roughly 20% to Tween Brands shareholders based on Wednesday's
closing prices.

Investors applauded Dress Barn's efforts to diversify from apparel for career
women into the so-called tween segment, sending shares up 2% premarket to $13.90.
Tween jumped 19% to $6.29.

Discounter Dress Barn targets professional women with its 841 namesake stores and
younger women with 716 Maurices stores. Tween Brands, of New Albany, Ohio,
operates 908 Justice stores that target seven- to 14-year-olds with low-priced
fashion items like dresses and graphic t-shirts.

The combined company would operate 2,465 stores and generate annual sales of
about $2.4 billion.

David R. Jaffe, Dress Barn's chief executive, said Tween Brands complements his
company's portfolio of value-priced stores for young and professional women.
While "not as big a market" as its two women's brands, Mr. Jaffe said the preteen
market has "only has one big player," Tween Brands, with a nationwide footprint.

The acquisition shows how the economy has turned laggards into takeover targets.
In the quarter ended May 2, Tween Brands posted a loss of $1.4 million on a 23%
drop in sales at stores open more than a year. The company has struggled under
$165 million in debt and covenants that restricted its capital spending to $10
million a year. Tween's outstanding bank debt will be repaid under the deal.

The company was "down on luck because of their debt," said Mr. Jaffe. Now "the
handcuffs are removed."

Mr. Jaffe said he plans to retain Tween Brands executives, including Chief
Executive Mike Rayden, who will continue to manage Justice and report to Mr.
Jaffe. Mr. Rayden said in an interview that in the next three to five years,
Justice has the potential to have more than 1,000 stores, expanding into outlet
centers where Dress Barn already has a presence.

Dress Barn, like its peers, has been cutting costs and inventory amid the drop in
consumer spending that has hurt nearly all clothing retailers. But it got a boost
from a strong reception to its spring merchandise, helping result in the recent
sales gain.

Though Dress Barn has fared better during the recession, the acquisition isn't
without risk. Preteens remain one of the most fickle consumer groups. Unlike
Dress Barn's older patrons, younger women have traditionally shown less brand
loyalty and exhibit more rapidly changing tastes.

Additionally, preteen spending is closely tied to parents' income for allowances,
and such cash is often the first clawed back during a recession.

Justice also faces new competition from Aeropostale Inc. Last week, the discount
teen retailer opened a new concept called "P.S. from Aeropostale" aimed at
preteen boys and girls. The company said it plans to open nine additional stores
during the fiscal 2009 year as well as an e-commerce site.

-By Nicholas Casey, The Wall Street Journal; nicholas.casey

(Tess Stynes contributed to this article.)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 25, 2009 08:57 ET (12:57 GMT)

[BRIG_88]

TWB holding it's gains nicely.....3 bagger so far

[BRIG_88]

seems the street believes TWB has turned the corner

[BRIG_88]

looks like it wants to go green

[Rawnoc]

Agreed, TWB holding up really well.

[BRIG_88]

twb acting well in a crappy market

[Hairy Calls]

acting very strong here on a down day.

[the big guy]

yes the PR always.. lol..

[nsomniyak]

Yes, the macroeconomic news is helping. The data suggest that 11 year old girls have decided, en masse, to open the purse strings and buy, buy, buy at the mall. This is anticipated to produce a small but measurable bump in GDP.

Of course, the Obama administration will take credit for this, but it is all really due to TWB's weekend ads.

[BRIG_88]

TWB back above 6

[Rawnoc]

Analysts raised their estimates another .01 to +.14 eps for next year.

I expect those estimates to keep rising.

[BRIG_88]

indeed it was an inverted pattern...the most bullish

[the big guy]

I did not think it was the INVERTED pattern, was it?

[the big guy]

OK, so it is time to post my true opinion about TWB. Maybe it is not the POS I thought it was at first glance. Although the numbers are not quite there yet, the market is forward pricing, and it looks to be in for a great run. The chart is compelling... looking at it over a 5-year time frame... this is a retail stock that has places to go. Could reach a high of $60. And the recent numbers are closer to profitability that could have been imagined.

I was just being BAD ...

Apparently there was some good economic news today.. maybe that is having an impact.

[BRIG_88]

The only complaint i have is i didn't buy more at 2 bucks

[Rawnoc]

TWB target $20 - $60 remains firm.

[BRIG_88]

TWB....never doubt the inverted spinglefluke chart pattern

[Rawnoc]

Close to 3 bags down, 7-27 to go.

[waikikian]

Breaks $6

Thank you Raw and Mike for sharing your DD. Even though I sold out before earnings and missed most of the run I did get back in at $4.37. Great find!

[BRIG_88]

Thanks kriter

[Hairy Calls]

Gotta love the inverted springlefluke...good eye Brigg!

[BRIG_88]

What a gutsy call....lol

[MikeDDKing]

Tween Brands Started At Mkt Perform By BMO >TWB

Last update: 5/28/2009 10:40:57 AM(END)

Dow Jones Newswires

May 28, 2009 10:40 ET (14:40 GMT)

[Rawnoc]

The inverted spinglefluke conquers again!!!

[BRIG_88]

ROFL!!!...drove by it yesterday and my gf was teasing me about that when i pointed it out.....BRIG

[Rawnoc]

LOL, they're going to call the cops if YOU walk in lol

Make sure you don't show up in a trench coat and flip-flips this time, k?

[BRIG_88]

Justice store down the road from me....going to drop in and ask some questions....BRIG

[jaybird249]

Briggy, I have been early to the party on dozens of these small cap high fliers since early March, but TWB got in at $4.10.

I am just playing stocks I think can move a very fast 50 % in this market.. no more buy and holds in US stocks I am worried about US dollar. as a Canadian been raising Canadian cash big time.

[Fishin' Canuck]

Thank you Mike

[BRIG_88]

damn Jay you loaded up.....mind if i ask at what price?....BRIG

[Rawnoc]

>> I think analysts & investors will wake up to what's going on with this fantastic company and greatly raise their 2010 EPS estimates which will in turn help launch the stock <<

Let it begin. Calendar 2010 estimates have gone from -.02 to +.13 EPS in the last 3 days.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TWB

[jaybird249]

Thanks will repost on Yahoo acknowledging your efforts. GREAT news. Long 45,000 shares.

[BRIG_88]

thanks Mike...it's obvious you put a lot of work into compiling that and we thank you for the effort.....BRIG

[MikeDDKing]

Updated TWB Q1 CC summary

1. They spent significant time consolidating their marketing databases and experimenting with marketing techniques in the new economic environment. Direct mail circulation was down from circulation of 21.5M in Q1'08 to 13.1M in Q1'09. This resulted in lower sales. They will be significantly increasing marketing in Q2.

2. The drop in revenue in Q1'09 vs. Q1'08 isn't as significant as it seems because Q1'08 was a really good quarter due to Webkinz. The revenue drop caused by Webkinz will be less of an issue as they move through 2009.

3. In Q1'08 they had a program called Fun Card/Bonus card which generated $16K in revenue per store. In 2009 that program is happening in Q2. That means that Q2 should have a boost of roughly $14.5M in revenue assuming the promotion has the same revenue effect in 2009.

4. Units per transaction are up!

5. Comparable store sales are expected to improve as we go through the year.

6. They said that April was the best month of the season and they were gaining traction in May as well. This seems to point to an improving trend.

7. They have realized roughly $14M of the $39.5-42.5M in cost savings that they expected. The remaining cost savings will be realized mostly in Q2'09 and Q3'09.

8. They don't have a problem with cannibalization of revenue due to the cutover of Limited Too to Justice.

9. They have negotiated rent on something like 65 stores of the 240 stores that are coming up for renewal in 2009 and 2010. The rent has dropped by 30-some odd percent on average.

10. Inventory was cut by 22.5%. This has allowed them to minimize the markdown that they have had to do.

11. Increased direct sourcing of product is giving them a better cost for their merchandise.

12. At quarter end they had $84M in cash plus $50M in a revolving line of credit for a total liquidity position of $134M.

13. They have roughly an 8% market share of the tween market.

Here is a transcript of the conference call:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/138782-tween-brands-f1q09-qtr-end-05-02-09-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo

[Rawnoc]

Yes.

Posted by: dispoman Date: Thursday, May 14, 2009 9:57:40 AM
In reply to: Rawnoc who wrote msg# 285 Post # of 355

$2.60 another buying opportunity???