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Trend1 - gottcha. Just for the record because I have nothing to hide, there are now 8 members in the Facebook SPX Cycles group and one that I am waiting for confirmation.
Talking about the PIT
You know you that is !!!
Are you talking my group or the "village idiots" group.
northam
Last time I was in the PIT, there were 8 members.
Two more members have joined the Facebook SPX Cycle Group today. Come on join in.
Unless there is a major reversal. The 60 min will likely close as a new Phase 1 and the projected low will be 1217.
SPX 60 min Phase 2 confirmed, average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 8.9 trading hours, it has been over 7 cycles since an average Phase 2 has been reached. The current projected high is 1265.08
TREND1,
As long as you are backtesting pricing methods, test Typical Price (TP).
CCI, which you use, uses TP.
TP = (H+L+C)/3
SPX 60 min confirmed new Phase 1, average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 7.6 trading hours, the projected low is 1221.7
The most up to date SPX Cycle info with charts is at my Facebook group. It's FREE! Just send me an e-mail to northam43@yahoo.com Subject: SPX Cycles with your facebook name and I will be happy to get you in the group.
Snoot - The 60 min opened the current hour in an unconfirmed Phase 1, if confirmed the projected low will be 1221.5, the Daily still has not gotten to the UTL, so it's looking like a Daily Phase 1 could get confirmed today, if confirmed the Daily projected low will be 1198.57
As to the "villige idiot", it's just amusing.
SPX 60 min in a new Phase 2, projected high 1255.37, SPX Daily opened in an unconfirmed Phase 1, it must get above 1250.68 to remain in Phase 2, SPX Weekly continues in the 3rd week of Phase 2, Monthly Phase 1 continues the 2nd Month.
Looks like my 14.22 SPXU position is getting close to being profitable.
?60 min low is now at 1227.25 which is below the projected low. That means it is probably headed for the Daily projected low at the 1198.57 level
Buy Blockers are currently active for the 60 min, Daily, Weekly & Monthly, all are currently below their respective UTL.
SPX 60 min Phase 1 has been confirmed the projected low is 1230, the average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 7.6 trading hours
SPX Cycles on Facebook, is off to a great start:
To join my facebook group you need a facebook account (which is FREE) and then send me an e-mail to northam43@yahoo.com Subject: SPX Cycles Facebook, with your facebook account name so I can get you confirmed.
What is the advantage of the facebook group?
1. It's FREE, most individual's already have an account there.
2. Restricted membership in the SPX Cycle group. It is classified as a secret group so only members of the group will have access.
3. Easier to follow messages & replies
4. There is also a group chat feature which works nice.
5. You have unlimited posting there
6. They have a pix library, so you can view the 60 min cycles in one album and the Daily cycles in another.
The more I use it, the more I like it.
This weekend I posted some SPX Cycle documentation at the facebook site.
Hope to see you their.
Snoot - Yes, with the futures currently down 9 points, if that remains, a 60 min Phase 1 could be confirmed during the opening hour. The low target would be 1230. It's also possible that the Daily could open below the UTL, it would have to remain below that level until the close to confirm a Phase 1. The Daily target low would be 1198.57
Bret, yes send me and e-mail to northam43@yahoo.com with your facebook name and I will send you a friend request, once confirmed I can then add you to my facebook SPX Cycle group.
Hope to see you there.
Northram, After seeing futures this morning and reviewing Fridays action it appears we hit the top of your phase2 60 min if I'm reading this correctly that you targeted at 1259ish, very good call!
Northam43, I never post here but I follow your broad. Should I send you my e-mail address to continue to follow on facebook. I do have a facebook account....Best Regards, Bret.
Northram, the 1200 lower target is preferred for my expected wave ratios and a 1370 upper target for the following move- quite bullish as you said!
I seen a post on one of the other boards regarding 401K's. The advice was to put your 401K into cash. I'm no financial professional, I do have an IRA account for myself and my wife.
The last thing I would want to do is take our IRA's to cash. 1st let me say that I don't invest in our IRA's using the SPX Cycles or any other system. 401K's & IRA's are LONG TERM INVESTMENTS, they are not day trading accounts. I believe one should take into account how long you have before retirement. If you have 5 years or less before retiring than yes you need to take less risk.
Also, the types of stock investments one should have in their retirement accounts is those that pay dividends. I know alot of financial managers recommend dollar cost averaging, which supposedly over the long run as the market goes up and down you will increase your holding & dividends. Yes some positions will be up and some down, but they want you to look at the entire portfolio. I'm not really a big fan of dollar cost averaging, my philosophy would be to put new money in a cash account and then wait for downturns in the market to add positions. If you build a well versified portfolio of good dividend producing stocks, you should never have to get out of the market until such a time you start drawing from your funds. Even then you should remain invested to a certain degree.
401K & IRA accounts aren't like regular investment accounts, you normally can't take capital gains losses, so when you sell for a loss in a retirement account, it's gone.
To me it is very foolish and incompetent for anyone to just say take your retirement money and put it into cash. This is your retirement money, not casino money.
Anyway, that's my opinion, take it for what it's worth. I've been retired since the age of 40.
snoot - your 1200 lower target would be in line with a Daily Phase 1. I'm hoping that the 60 min, Daily & Weekly all open in Phase 2 Monday morning, then by Monday afternoon I am looking for a 60 min Phase 1 that will take the Daily below it's UTL, then Tuesday the Daily goes into Phase 1, by Thursday I'm looking for the Daily low to be put in, the target would be 1199, but I'm really expecting a short cycle, then the Daily goes to Phase 2 by Monday, that would keep the weekly in Phase 2 for the 4th week, the weekly normally establishes a high by the 9th week. With the 60 min & Daily in a new Phase 2, I would expect them to first push the Monthly EMA 3/8 to the Bull side, and then push the Monthly to a new Phase 2 confirmation, I am looking at all this to take place by December 23rd, after the Monthly Phase 2 is confirmed I would be looking at the 60 min possibly going into a short Phase 1, but I would expect the Daily to go into an extended Phase 2, till after the 1st of the year. This is a very bullish scenario.
The Bearish scenario would start Monday if the 60 min, Daily & Weekly all opened below their respective UTL's. If it's just a 60 min Phase 1 the low target would be 1230, Daily Phase 1 the low target would be 1198.57, start of a Weekly Phase 1 the low target would be 1132.29
I will be expecting my Buy Blockers to keep me out of trouble on the long side.
So until this market either confirms a new Bull market or the Monthly drops below the LTL indicating the potential for a new Bear low. I will be waiting for the next buying opportunity either with SSO or SPXU.
Chart SPX 30: After this mornings wave pattern session I'm looking for SPX to remain under the previous 1267 high, with a tag of the blue upper fork tine as target. For the options ex week, we will be above max pain at least 17 points and possibly 27 as I'm not sure if 1250 or 1240 is it. So a small first drop followed by a slow retrace would fit with the pain theory while my wave theory is looking for a lower high Monday. The 1200-1210 lower target remains afterward.
$SPX - 30 min Candlesticks
NASARAVI - The Daily Phase 2 is well above it's target high, if it opens in Phase 2 on Monday, it will be atleast an average Phase 2. Since it has been dropping below the UTL I would lean more to the Daily going into a Phase 1. Now the best senario would be if it goes to a Phase 1 on Tuesday, that would mean that the Weekly would be in a Phase 2 for another week, and the Daily would have 9 trading days to get a Phase 1 and get back into Phase 2 so the weekly could continue into it's 4th week of a Phase 2. The Weekly projected target is 1296, that would put the Monthly in a new Phase 2. But I believe we need one more Daily Phase 1 to get us over the hump.
Actually what I believe is happening is the Daily has been out running the indicators and so the SPX Daily UTL has been playing catchup. I believe now the Daily has caught up. If we get a short Daily Phase 1 that would be good. The last Daily Phase 1 was an extended one that lasted 9 trading days, so we are due for a short to average one.
northam43:
After Monday, wherein we finish 9 days of daily Phase 2, are you are expecting a Phase 1 daily? or an extension of Phase 2 daily.
Also, we are still in the weekly being in driver seat.....what are the chances of monthly 3/8 cross.
It seems every time we come close, daily Phase 1 acts up and nullifies the 3/8 monthly cross.
TIA.
northam43:
After Monday, wherein we finish 9 days of daily Phase 2, are you are expecting a Phase 1 daily? or an extension of Phase 2 daily.
Also, we are still in the weekly being in driver seat.....what are the chances of monthly 3/8 cross.
It seems every time we come close, daily Phase 1 acts up and nullifies the 3/8 monthly cross.
TIA.
Torqputty - I will send you an e-mail with my Facebook name, you will need to confirm me as a friend before I can add you to my facebook group that's the way it works at facebook.
northam - FB
please send invite to torqputty@yahoo.com
Rcks - The Weekly target is 1296.38 and the current 60 min target is 1259.65
If the Daily can stay in Phase 2 til Monday, it would then have 9 trading days to complete a Phase 1 and get back in Phase 2 to keep the Weekly in Phase 2 or the Monthly could go into Phase 2 and extend the Daily Phase 2.
Thanks I thought that was the case just checking, the Weekly Phase II is much higher though correct?
Rcks - It was 1223.30, it was hit on the 1st day of the Phase 2. Monday will be the Daily's 9th trading day which is the average unless we get a big sell off between now and the open Monday.
northam what was the projected high for this Daily Phase II we are in?
I'm in the Bullish camp here but next week should be range bound because of Option Expiration, 125 SPY is Max Pain in my book and it argues we return to this level by weeks end if we move very far in either direction.
I don't see us dropping much for sure, way too many Puts @ 125 and below, they way out number Calls, if anything up would be easier for the market next week.
Here is my Daily SPX chart and the Bow Tie created by the extension of the lines of the triangle, may very well contain price all of next week.
SPX 60 min Phase 2 confirmed, projected high is 1259.58, average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 9.0 trading hours, it has been over 5 cycles since the last average 60 min Phase 2.
SPX Daily Phase 2 continues into the 8th trading day, the average Daily Phase 2 is 9.31 trading days.
Looks like the 60 min is very close to a Phase 2, if confirmed the projected high is 1259.66
Torqputty - That would be great! Would love to have you. Yes, as a secret group on Facebook, it means that only the group members can see what is posted on that board. The membership is by invitation only and I am inviting anyone here that wants to follow my SPX Cycle System to join it.
The info I need is in the sticky note at the top of this board.
re; It is classified as a secret group
cool, will be joining soon
SPX Cycles on Facebook
To join my facebook group you need a facebook account (which is FREE) and then send me an e-mail to northam43@yahoo.com Subject: SPX Cycles Facebook, with your facebook account name so I can get you confirmed.
What is the advantage of the facebook group?
1. It's FREE, most individual's already have an account there.
2. Restricted membership in the SPX Cycle group. It is classified as a secret group so only members of the group will have access.
3. Easier to follow messages & replies
4. There is also a group chat feature which works nice.
5. You have unlimited posting there
6. They have a pix library, so you can view the 60 min cycles in one album and the Daily cycles in another.
Back at ya Trend1.
Torqputty - Right now we are looking at a Daily Phase 1 starting tomorrow, the average is 6 trading days, the low hopefully will be in by Wednesday and then hopefully we get high enough to keep the Weekly in Phase 2 next week. If we get a confirmed Weekly Phase 1, I will add to my SPXU. Looks like I may have a profitable SPXU tomorrow.
"Looking at the low around 1198.57"
Always thanks for your info
SPX Cycle reports have been updated.
Looks like the SPX Daily will get a Phase 1 confirmed tomorrow. Looking at the low around 1198.57
Have a great evening!
re; things are looking more Bearish right now
I have one Buy (go long) IWM on the hourly chart (hourly Stoch) And most of my Long-term Signals (daily Stoch) have gone into Overbought
Current Position; cash
So if the SPX Daily goes into a Phase 1 tomorrow, it would just be one day short of it's average. It has meet the average of highs, it is well above it's target high of 1223.30, the current projected low is 1198.57, the average daily low is put in by the 4th trading day, and the average Daily Phase 1 lasts 6 trading days.
So if the Daily dropped to it's target low by Dec 14th, and then back into Phase 2 by Dec 16th. That would be cutting it real close with putting the Weekly in a Phase 1.
So things are looking more Bearish right now. I might be able to sell one of them SPXU positions for a profit instead of a loss.
SPX 60 min has confirmed a new Phase 1 and is currently in the 2nd trading hour, the projected low is 1238.9, the average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 7.6 trading hours, it has been over five cycles since the 60 min Phase 1 has had an average cycle.
The SPX Daily has dropped below the UTL, so there is the potential for a Daily Phase 1 to be confirmed tomorrow.
The SPX Weekly has also dropped below the UTL, however, at this point the odds of a Weekly Phase 1 is 50/50 since we are still in a Bear market.
So right now this could just be another 60 min Phase 1 or it could develope more into a Daily Phase 1. We shall see.
A chart is posted at my facebook SPX Cycles group.
As of the 1st of January, I will be moving SPX Cycles to Facebook.
I have listed in the sticky notes above how you can join my group there.
All of my reports will still be posted at my personal website as I am doing now, so the User ID and password that I have posted will remain valid for now.
I like the features of the facebook site better than here. I have more control over my site. I can upload charts easier, and the thread is easier to follow. There is also a group chat feature avaliable, so those that want to get together in the chat room can discuss the SPX Cycle system in realtime.
So between now and the 1st of January I will continue to post here as I have been. After January 1st, my posting here will be very limited. I hope you will join me at my new site.
Mid Oct type trading imo
Today was a near identical trading pattern to the Max Pain rally day mid Oct when SPX retested 1190 for a double bottom buy at support.
In my opinion we either mirror the recent bowtie or the diamond from mid Oct here and break to the upside. I think that would be in line with Tom DeMark looking for a top near Dec 22nd and Bradley turn date Dec 28th. We should at least get 8 more days of whiplash finishing with a spike high like Oct 27th, but could be a doji followed by a steep selloff rather than a bullish day.
So personally I think today will be the middle day to a diamond pattern similar to mid Oct Max Pain rally day, we shall see.
If you still have the diamond pattern trading chart you might want to post it.
Good Trading!
Examples at bottom show why ETF's like SPXU are short term trades.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69715391
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SPX Cycles has moved to facebook. If you would like to join my facebook group go to www.facebook.com and create an account it's FREE.
Then search for "SPX Cycles" and press the request to join button. We will confirm your request during the next trading day.
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