TotalEnergies SE (TTE)

[Vincent Milner]

Total strikes oil for second time offshore Ivory Coast.

France’s Total said it had discovered oil in a deep offshore area in the west of Ivory Coast, the company’s second oil find in a year in the West African country.

DETAILS

[Timothy Smith]

Total's revenue dropped by 4% to 124.9B USD compared to 130B USD in the same period last year.

The reported adjusted net income was in line with the revenue drop and also went approximately 4% lower to 7.3B USD or $3.22/share.

This adjusted net income excludes a 1.27B USD loss on asset sales. This was mainly caused by a divestment in Q1 (when the company took a hit on the sale of the Canadian Voyageur project), as the company booked a profit on asset sales in Q2 2013 totaling $382M.

[Timothy Smith]

20% gain since my original posts over last 12 months and room for growth 2nd half.

[Timothy Smith]

The French oil giant is another excellent near-term and long-term investment option. A strong dollar and cost associated with the North Sea natural gas spill has depressed the stock in the near-term and provides a good buy opportunity. Like BP, TOT has integrated operations and is a globally diversified player. TOT also offers a very attractive dividend yield of 5.6% and is trading at a low TTM PE of 10.3

[Timothy Smith]

The company's dividend is strongly backed by its solid financial situation.

Below are a few key metrics demonstrating its ability to steadily grow dividends.

Yearly revenue growth [past five years] 5.19%

Earnings Per Share [TTM] $6.17

EPS estimate for next year $6.47

Payout Ratio [TTM] 49.37%

[Timothy Smith]

Total (TOT) - Based in Paris, France, Total has operations in 150 countries and is engaged in all aspects of the petroleum industry.

Total is one of the largest publicly traded oil companies in the world, with a market cap around $113.4 billion, and currently trades at only 7.4 times TTM earnings.

TOT has rewarded its investors with an 8% average gain in share price over the past two decades, and has given generous 10.2% annual dividend increases over that time period.

Total is currently paying a 4.88% yield.

[Timothy Smith]

Myanmar, shunned since the 1990s for tolerating corruption and human trafficking, is set for record foreign investment in 2012 led by oil companies.

The Asian country is estimated to hold 11T-23T cubic feet of natural gas and now produces ~19,600 bbl/day of oil and 1.475B cubic feet/day of gas.

Chevron (CVX), Total (TOT) and Sinopec (SNP) are among companies with investments there.

[Timothy Smith]

TOT, like most of its competitors, is primarily an oil and gas play due to more than 80% of its earnings being driven by the Upstream segment, and given that it has a diversified geographic portfolio. However, TOT has placed itself in a market leading position in the development of renewable energy.

The company intends to increase production by 2.5% annually by following an ambitious exploration program. However, the stock is an ADR, and revenues and profitability are susceptible to exchange rate fluctuations.

The stock is trading at cheap forward P/E, P/B, and P/S multiples of 6.5 times, 1.3 times, and 0.5 times, respectively, when compared to its peers. And it offers the highest forward dividend yield of 6.34% among its integrated oil and gas peers. Therefore, we have a positive stance on the stock.

[Timothy Smith]

Analysts on Monday responded to Total's second quarter results with caution, after the French major reported Friday that 2Q earnings were smaller by nine percent at $3.7 billion.

Total itself noted that in its upstream segment the company was adversely affected by incidents in the UK North Sea, Nigeria and Yemen. But the firm also pointed out that the second quarter was also market by successes, with the firm starting up production at its Islay, Bongkot South and Halfaya projects while also acquiring new exploration licenses in Uruguay, Kenya and Bulgaria.

The firm added that the increase in its share in the Ichthys project in Australia has strengthened its "already prominent" role in fast-growing Asian markets and solidified its position among worldwide leaders in liquefied natural gas.

Goldman Sachs commented that "concerns remain" despite "solid" net earnings of $7.7 billion during the first half of the year. The investment bank noted that growth in Total's major new projects will only accelerate from 2015/2016 and "until then, the company is heavily exposed to potential delays and cost overruns".

Oil analysts at Jefferies were more positive, pointing out that earnings beat consensus forecasts by three percent, "bucking the trend of its larger peers" and that although upstream production was lower than last year "we believe this should grow substantially once the new projects ramp up and Elgin and Yemen return by early next year".

In a statement accompanying Total's second quarter results, CEO Christophe de Margerie said:

"Amid a challenging economic environment, it is with confidence that Total faces the second half of 2012, supported by the strength of its balance sheet and the dedication of its team which allow the group to develop and execute high-value projects in each segment"

So far, the second quarter reporting season has thrown up a mixed bag of results from European oil and gas companies, with Statoil reporting an increase in profit last week while Spain's Repsol and Royal Dutch Shell both seeing a decline in their respective net incomes.

[Timothy Smith]

I believe in the upside here on TOT and maintain my bullish position. Certainly the switch over you refer to could impact earnings but natural gas is strong in the EU and I believe will be come stronger in the next couple years. JMHO

[ChitForBrains]

So you don't think the switch over to coal in Europe will effect Total's income (lower Natural Gas prices in Europe)?

[Timothy Smith]

Although TOTAL has experienced an economic slowdown over the last three years, the company continues to follow an attractive investor-oriented dividend policy, guaranteeing its investors a stable and high dividend rate. Additionally, TOTAL constantly develops ambitious investment programs, thereby engaging all drivers for its expected upswing in business. Combined, these factors generate opportunities for the company's short-term economic growth.

Furthermore, TOTAL's investors can currently rely on a solid balance sheet, successful start-up, and ramp-up of investment projects. The investment program implementation involves TOTAL's experienced management team, and is certain to accelerate the growth of operating cash flow and net income. As a result, investors can expect a strengthening of the company's financial position. I would consider Total as a safe investment. The current price offers a cheap entry point for those interested.

[Timothy Smith]

Key highlights from earnings report:

European refining margins more than doubled to $38.20 a metric ton in the second quarter, up from $16.30 a ton in the same period a year ago, and $20.90 a ton in the first quarter of this year.

The company raised its quarterly dividend for the first time since 2008, up 3.5% to 0.59 euros per share.

The company's CFO also said mgmt prefers dividend increases versus stock repurchases (refreshing).

Total said it remained confident about the second half of the year.

Four additional reasons Total is a solid pick for value and income investors at $46 a share:

The stock is selling at the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/E, P/B, P/CF and P/S.

With the payout increase, Total now yields close to 6% and the company seems committed to raise payouts as warranted in the future.

The stock is cheap especially for a high yielder. TOT is selling for less than 7 times forward earnings and just over 4 times operating cash flow.

Analysts have a median price target of $58 on the shares. S&P has a "Buy" rating and a $61 price target on the stock.

[Timothy Smith]

French oil and gas major Total announced Thursday that it increased stake in the world-class Ichthys liquefied natural gas (LNG) project to 30 percent through the acquisition of a further 6-percent interest from its partner, the Japanese firm INPEX.

In a statement, Total said that the acquisition will not have an impact on any of the LNG offtake agreements that have been arranged, with the entire annual production of LNG (8.4 million tons per annum) having already been sold for 15 years. Total has agreed to buy 0.9 million tons per year of LNG from the Ichthys project.

"We are delighted to have increased our stake which demonstrates our confidence in this world class Ichthys LNG project. This further enhances our presence in Australia and our position as supplier in the Asian LNG market, the fastest growing market offering high value prices linked to oil. This move also consolidates Total’s strategy as a leading LNG player." Yves-Louis Darricarrère, president of Total Exploration & Production, said in a statement.

Ichthys is one of Australia's biggest undeveloped gas projects, which is estimated to contain recoverable reserves of 12.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

In May, INPEX highlighted to Rigzone that the Ichthys project will command a key position in Australia's energy landscape for the next four decades and that the massive project presents a unique opportunity for professionals, with Inpex seeking job candidates for a wide range of technical roles.

[idkmybffjill]

Any further degradation of European stock markets would make TOT a compelling purchase. It's already trading at very attractive valuations, but I think further downside is definitely possible...

[idkmybffjill]

Total very undervalued on an absolute basis (P/E of ~7, dividend yield of ~6%) and on a relative basis compared to the other supermajors.

[USAStockValuation]

Total S.A. (TOT) is one of the six supermajor oil companies in the world. It is a French company established in 1924.

The company is rather diverse with interests in LNG, LPG, gas and nuclear power generation, coal, solar, refining, shipping, and chemicals manufacturing to complement is dominant upstream activities. It operates in more than 130 countries and is one of the biggest producers of natural gas.

Most of the “easy” oil in the world has been produced, sold and consumed. Companies like TOTAL are forced to explore for oil in deeper water and in higher risk countries, and this trend will continue into the future. TOTAL has a number of operations in Africa as well as Iran and Russia, and has invested heavily in deep water, oil sands and LNG.

In the future, EPS growth will come predominantly from an increase in the price of oil (and the price of natural gas) as growth in production is getting harder and harder to come by. In the shorter term the price direction of oil is not clear. As Europe slides into a recession, demand for oil, at least from that region, will decline and the price of oil may drop as a result. But over the longer term it is hard to see the price of oil going anywhere but up. Oil production is becoming a more expensive exercise as time goes by, and new oil discoveries are mostly a lot smaller than the sort of discoveries enjoyed in the 20th century.

As with most resource companies, the larger the company the lower the cost to produce per unit volume. These economies of scale often make the bigger oil & gas producers more attractive an investment. That and their enormous cashflow. TOTAL has generated total Free Cash Flow over the last 5 years of over $87B versus total net earnings over the same period of $76B. Its net debt to equity is a very manageable 26%.

Quality Rating


Source: www.usastockvaluation.com

TOTAL achieves a poor quality rating predominantly due to lack of growth and declining profitability. Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) all have similar Quality Ratings to TOTAL.

Intrinsic Value


Source: www.usastockvaluation.com

Value Investing involves, at the basic level, the buying of high quality companies at a share-price that is at a meaningful discount to Intrinsic Value. Neither criterion is met with TOTAL, so Value Investors would likely not be interested in the stock.



The above graph indicates that TOTAL has lifted its game recently after a few years of declining performance. The future performance of TOTAL is heavily dependent on the price of oil – if the price of oil sky rockets as many predict it will over the next 5 or 10 years, so does the performance of TOTAL. If the oil price drops, stays the same or increases only slightly, TOTAL will struggle to achieve decent growth or profitability.

Conclusion

Investors who believe the price of oil over the longer term (10 years+) is going up will be interested in TOTAL due to its large amounts of proved oil and oil equivalents and its aggressive exploration and project development. The stock is paying a dividend yield of 2.7% on current prices. Value Investors will be keen to see a Margin of Safety prior to an investment, and as such will want to wait to see how things play out with the impending European recession.

[ChitForBrains]

Deal with Chesepeake http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/11/11/some-clues-on-chesapeakes-mystery-utica-partner/

Analyst Rezvan was surprised that Chesapeake hadn’t made a bigger deal out of the renegotiation, given that they often issue press releases for far less material events. Write’s Rezvan, “We believe that the reconfigured JV, combined with uncharacteristic silence, may indicate that Total could be the firm involved in the Utica shale JV, and the Barnett JV news may be a precursor to a Utica deal.” 2011 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved

[OilStockReport]

TOT has a market cap of $128.5B, a P/E ratio of 7.23, and returned 6.70% since the beginning of this year.

Robert Rodriguez and Steven Romick invested $14 million in TOT shares.



Total SA is a France-based integrated international oil and gas company.

[OilStockReport]

Hope to see some increase today... yesterday was not so hot.

Total SA TOT +0.96% declined 3.8% after it said it closed a $1.3 billion deal to buy a majority stake in solar cell maker SunPower Corp.

[TOP1]

3 High Yielding European Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates


http://seekingalpha.com/article/272520-3-high-yielding-european-stocks-with-rising-earnings-estimates?source=yahoo

[TOP1]

Will Chairman Bernanke announce QE 2.5 this afternoon?


http://www.thestockenthusiast.com/opinion/will-chairman-bernanke-announce-qe-2-5-this-afternoon/

[TOP1]

QE 2.5

http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-on-why-you-should-expect-qe-25-2011-5

[TOP1]

France's Total 'Looking Forward' To Brazil's Next Oil-Concession Auction Round


http://www.smartmoney.com/news/on/?story=on-20110526-000534&cid=1244&source=TheMotleyFool

[TOP1]

Goldman Sachs to Hedge Funds: Buy These Stocks Now

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Goldman-Sachs-Hedge-Funds-Buy-wscheats-700541745.html?x=0&.v=1

[TOP1]

Are Total SA's Earnings Better Than They Look?

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/05/23/are-total-sas-earnings-better-than-they-look.aspx

[TOP1]

Total: The Perfect Safe Haven

http://seekingalpha.com/article/264409-total-the-perfect-safe-haven

[TOP1]

6 Deeply Undervalued, Oversold Oil Stocks to Watch


http://seekingalpha.com/article/270575-6-deeply-undervalued-oversold-oil-stocks-to-watch?source=yahoo

[OilStockReport]

Thanks for the heads up on this one.

[TOP1]

TOTAL $3.15 DIVIDEND LAST CHANCE TO RECEIVE DIVIDEND BY EX-DIVIDEND DATE 05/18/11 WHICH IS TODAY

[OilStockReport]

TOT good for a bull market?

TOT -- Total is a cheap oil and gas company, and at 8X earnings has zero ties to the U.S. Dollar, which is in a bear market. TOT looks to be a good way to invest in the stock market while currency risks are associated with U.S. companies.

[OilStockReport]

Some folks agree that TOT is undervalued...

Total (TOT) is up by 16%, over the past 3 months. In 2010, revenues were +25.25% to 140.47 billion euros, and GAAP EPS was +24.60% to 4.71 euros. The profit margin also remains steady in the low 30’s. The next earnings release is on April 29, when the Street expects $1.181 in non-GAAP EPS, compared to $1.42 in Q1 2010.

Canada and Australia are emerging as major production poles for the company. For 2011 and 2012, the company is looking to start up 10 large Upstream projects, and launch 12 major Upstream projects. These projects should introduce 220,000 more barrels of oil equivalent per day. We like Total’s aggressive strategy for growth, and we expect TOT shares to outperform its peers in this article. TOT trades right at our fair value estimate, and place a price target of $72 by the end of 2011.

On March 30, Total announced the acquisition of oil blocks in Uganda that has already been appraised to have up to 1 billion barrels of oil. The remaining exploration area has similar potential. For the altruistic investor, the company is rolling out a new anti-corruption program and contributing to the development of local economies. In 2010, the company had a dividend pay-out ratio of 50%.

[OilStockReport]

Thoughts on TOT's dividend stocks?

[OilStockReport]

One of the leading multinational energy companies, Total recently traded at $56.97 and has a 5.5% dividend yield. TOT gained 7.2 percent during the past 12 months.

[OilStockReport]

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Total SA, France’s largest oil company, reported on Friday a 32% increase in adjusted third-quarter profit as the global economic recovery pushed up demand for energy and new projects boosted production.

Net profit in the three months to Sept. 30 increased 47% to €2.83 billion ($3.9 billion), or 1.26 European cents a share.

Adjusted profit, the figure closely tracked by analysts as it excludes changes to the value of inventories and to the group’s stake in Sanofi-Aventis, climbed 32% to €2.48 billion. The result exceeded analysts’ consensus expectations, according to a poll conducted by Dow Jones Newswires, of €2.44 billion. The beat was mostly driven by the upstream division.

Striking workers of French oil giant Total cycle on the express way to demonstrate against pension reform in Saint Nazaire on Oct. 28.
Revenue climbed 19% to €40.18 billion, helped by a 13% year-on-year increase in oil prices. Production rose 4.3% to 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said in a statement that the results “confirm the momentum of the past several quarters” and “reflect the quality and reliability of the group’s operations, the profitability of its new production and the improved performance of the Chemicals segment.”

Total (TOT 54.48, +0.08, +0.15%) (FR:FP 39.05, -0.02, -0.04%) shares fell 1.1% in early afternoon trading in Paris. The main French index, meanwhile, dropped 0.6%.

Collins Stewart analysts said in a note to clients that although the results showed good volume growth, they fear Total is approaching a period of slower growth and higher capital expenses.

They forecast that Total’s production would likely grow only 2% in the fourth quarter and recommended switching into Royal Dutch Shell (UK:RDSA 2,026, +39.00, +1.96%) (RDS.A 64.93, +1.14, +1.79%) , which they said has much better production growth prospects.

Total on Friday also announced a change in its interim dividend policy. It will move to quarterly payments, instead of semi-annual ones, beginning in September 2011.

Disruption to French refining operations

The strong performance may reassure investors concerned about the severe disruption to Total’s French refining operations over the past month amid nationwide protests over pension reform. Key ports and plants sat idle, leading to serious fuel shortages in some parts of the country.

Total owns six of France’s 12 oil refineries. Several of the plants have re-opened now that the reform bill has passed but clearing the crude backlog could take weeks.

While Total acknowledged the disruptions in its statement on Friday, it did not estimate their cost. Before the strikes, the group had already decided to scale back refining capacity in France.

Competition in the sector is rising with Middle Eastern countries, benefiting from better access to crude stocks, gradually edging ahead. Industry observers also worry that as China and India build new refinery capacity, they will cut imports from European firms.

A strong third quarter for energy firms

Oil companies are generally expected to post very strong results this quarter on the back of higher oil prices and increased demand.

Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday posted a forecast-busting 88% rise in adjusted third-quarter profit while Italy’s Eni (IT:ENI 16.19, -0.01, -0.06%) also reported stronger-than-expected results. BP PLC (UK:BP. 425.80, +2.80, +0.66%) (BP 40.80, +0.20, +0.49%) , the oil major still reeling from the impact of its responsibility in the worst oil spill in U.S. history, is due to report results on Tuesday.

Like many of its competitors Total is delving into new countries and new fields to try and increase production and answer the world’s fast-growing energy needs. Last month it said that production from five start-up projects launched in 2009 and other new projects should reach around 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2014.

Total also forecast that production would grow in the second half of this year compared to the same period in 2009 and then be broadly flat in 2011 before growth returns from 2012 onwards.

Aude Lagorce is a senior correspondent for MarketWatch in London.

[OilStockReport]

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (NYSE: RDS.A) informed Brazil’s oil and gas regulator about the discovery of a new offshore oil site in the country’s Santos Basin. Having been drilled to a total depth of 1.25 mile (2 kilometers) below the ocean surface, the well (located in the deep-sea pre-salt concession block BM-S-54) showed indications of hydrocarbons.

The block is situated approximately 125 miles (200 kilometers) off the coast of Rio de Janeiro state. Shell, through its Brazilian unit, has an 80% operating interest in the prospect, the other partner being French oil major Total SA (NYSE: TOT). The Anglo-Dutch supermajor said that it would continue drilling to 3.7 miles (6 kilometers), following which the company will carry out an analysis of the flow and seismic data from the well.

[colowyo]

When is total gonna pick up cvx's block one jdz? anyone hearing anything?

[perojo]

Expro Secures Safety Award from Total E and P UK

[perojo]

Total looks to gas for growth

[Myself °¿°]

took all day to get a fill...
but I'm in 5 totrq June85p @.90
Target TOT 85+/-

[frenchee]

Sell alert...

[frenchee]

TOT valuation cheap

P/E Ratio: 9.26
P/E Ratio High(for last five years) 22.72
Ratio Low (for last five years) 7.22
P/E Ratio vs. Industry: 81.86%

[MrSparex]

interesting.

[frenchee]

Short-term buy signal on Total SA this last Friday...

[MrSparex]

whew!

[frenchee]

looks like 85.84 is the next test...

[frenchee]

What ever happened to MrSparex?

[frenchee]

Daily and weekly charts--

[MrSparex]

So...what's it gonna do? I have no idea...