TheChartologist

[LG]

ajtj: Doing my pre market open work this morning, but I'll comment...gg

Obama is going to use the coming 500 to 700 trillion stimulus package to get all his programs done.

7.7 plus another 7 and the Congress and Federal Reserve will be close to doubling the national debt in one year. I guess some how Bush will get blamed for that as well. That is why it is imperative to get all the bailout and stimulus money passed and obligated this year.

What a country...

Frankly, it depresses me. Those of us that pay our nation’s bills and live fiscally responsible, keep getting stuck bailing out the irresponsible over and over again. Most folks work for small business, small enough to fail. So, the Government does not step in with taxpayer dollars to make sure their jobs are saved and or their pensions are funded, but by all means, let's make sure the auto workers get a care free retirement.

What the rest have to look forward to is Social Security with ever rising eligibility dates and shrinking benefits.

It does not do us any good to tell our Senators and Representative what "we the people want", they are going do do what "they" want to do regardless.

What a country...

LG

[ajtj99]

LG, since you had a strong interest in the bailout process in September/October, I thought you'd be interested in this blog entry from Mish detailing $7.7 Trillion in bailout pledges by the Fed and Treasury so far. It's staggering:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/bailout-pledges-hit-77-trillion.html

[LG]

catmouse: I am not sure. A lot of folks played the 10/10 low and following consolidation for "the" low. Which means a lot of folks went under water when the consolidation broke down. A lot of those folks are going to be selling when they get back to break even.

Let's see if what remains of the boyz, can over come the selling. Maybe they will resort to an old stand by; using the futures to gap over the resistance, which will depend on how many folks they will be putting in the green with the move.

This ramp has been fast and furious, cycling most of my SPY intraday models into or near their respective over bought ranges as the SPY encounters those sellers I mentioned above.

I suspect we will see some sort of a consolidative pullback...

LG

[gtober]

Might be a good time to re-visit this chart. At this point I would not expect more than a bounce up into resistance. However, paying attention to the circles, the last time the oversold indicator FAILED to produce a bottom the markets simply trashed themselves to their ultimate low. Then, the next time the oscillator went to it's oversold level, that was the low.

This is where we are right now. I think it might be prudent to discuss the probability of a significant low being put in here. It may not ultimately prove to be THE low, but if the past is any indication, we should be watching.

PS: I have to take off for most of the day right away.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1990-01-14&id=p91162395753&a=127945037&listNum=1&listNum=1

[catmouse]

Awesome call LG!

Do you think this is the low for this year?

[finally]

Once this bites up it's confirmation that sell offs should be bought for a few weeks:

[finally]

Nasdaq net volume for the past 50 days is -26.3B!!!!

Even during the deflation of the bubble we saw very strong bounces with 50SMA net volume at -15B.

[finally]

Up volume on Thursday was the lowest since 1997 Asia financial crisis which coincided with the bottom of the mini-crash. Full blown global liquidity injections started the run to the 2000 bubble.

[finally]

Put buyers are ready for the move down.....I just don't think anyone told them what happens with the 5SMA gets this high, oh wait it hasn't. Every higher high in the CPCE 5SMA starting with the October 2005 low has resulted in at least a 2 month rally. Even with the compressed timeframes we are dealing with it should be a while before we take out the lows once the ratio bites down.
Every peak in the 5SMA has happened during OE or the Monday after OE.

[euterpe1]

The news is both reported and contrived. Randolph Hearst was the innovator of the method of news story.

[LG]

TJ Parker: There is little doubt the market was "very" oversold and looking for an excuse to rally. I am not sure serendipity is the right word.

It may well be Obama's team planned the release so it could be used as the excuse. Who knows, he and his team may be that smart or may be that connected. I would be more inclined to say coincidence and if that event had not been available another would have been used as the excuse.

Frankly, I just do not buy into the notion that traders everywhere heard the news and instantly thought it was a great choice that would be good for the markets and the economy. Heck, the pundits will be pontificating about the pros and cons of the choice until the swearing in...gg

LG

[TJ Parker]

but you know, if your implication is correct, that the rally would have happened even without the announcement, then you have to hand it to the obama team: thinking criminally, they chose exactly the right time to make the announcement, guaranteeing that the weekend news will be talking about geithner and how he inspires confidence on wall street.

or it could be serendipity. but everything suggests that the new administration leaves nothing to chance.

[LG]

Timothy F. Geithner rally, sure it was...gg

LG

[LG]

The late rally found resistance at Wednesday's lows...

My TradeStation IWM, QQQQ, SPY 60 Minutes All Sessions Semi-log Charts



LG

[LG]

Very wild ride today...gg

I love it when a plan comes together.

Have a great weekend everyone!

LG

[LG]

RCKS: Made 500 on an intraday basis.

My previous post regarding the SPX divergence below its 200 Day SMA on a closing basis was off. I am not sure where I got yesterdays number, think I pulled it off the weekly chart by mistake. It was below 494.26 points at the close yesterday as compared to its July 2002 momentum low divergence of 293.33 points below.

LG

[RCKS]

LG
Well, we are trying for 500 points below the 200ma today, may be achieved. Looks like we will wait for Monday and to see what happens with C to make a bottom.

[gtober]

BAC. Heavy support zone.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p22332316247&a=155384309&listNum=1

[finally]

Biotechs have nice 5 wave structure as well:
Timeframe for wave 2 a little weak but retraces work well. Nice irregular flat for wave 4.

There is also a H&S pattern from 2004 that shows support at 500.

[LG]

finally: Well there are not many of us here, but all are welcome, especially those bearing gifts of analysis...gg

LG

[finally]

I go to your website, find out you have your own thread, read your first post and its exactly what I was looking at:

We are just a tad under -40% at the close.



BTW - I'm your new boardmark. Feels cozy in here, away from the hubabaloo.

[LG]

The SPX closed today 596.69 points below its 200 Day SMA on a closing basis today. By comparison it was only below 293.33 points at its July 2002 momentum low close.

LG

[gtober]

LOL. Ya right. Looks like another board mark. Oh well, I don't have many any more.

[LG]

gtober: The reason you have trouble seeing my moves is because you are out in front. You need to get a rear view mirror...gg

LG

[gtober]

Hey dude. I leave for the summer and you get another new board. How am I supposed to keep up?

[LG]

rr: That would be just my luck, as I am having a very good year in the markets....sigh!

LG

[rich ruscio]

LG: You sure it's not the end of the world as we know it?

[LG]

SPY below its 2002 low...

The SPY is now over sold in my weekly, daily and almost all my intraday models. When they all line up it usually means a significant low is near. Look for one into the close or at the lastest tomorrow. A tradable rally should follow...

LG

[ajtj99]

In July 2002 the S&P stopped at 50% of the all-time high, or 775.

50% of 1576 is the 2003 lows, 788.9.

We may get a minor bounce there. The way the charts are set up it doesn't look like it would be a major low.

The 4407 NYA area still looks like it may come into play eventually. That was the 2002 lows.

[ajtj99]

Chrisalias, I am not familiar with Keltner channels. Are they like Kegel exercises? <G>

I just use the trendlines and pivot areas to find support and resistance for SKF. The middle Bollinger Band often times acts as support in a time frame as well.

I trade SKF using 1-4 min charts mostly. Today it would have been easier just to do buy and hold <G>

[LG]

rr: Base your trading year income on 240 trading days, giving you 20 days off for the exchange holidays and a few days off for vacation, being sick, dentist visits, etc.

I have a 100% Fib price projection for the SPX using the 2000 high, 2002 low and 2007 high of (791.89). However, being that close to the 2003 low of (788.90) and the 2002 low of (768.67) I would be surprised if the SPX gets to the Fib projection and it does not at leat test the 2003 low and likely the 2002 low.

Still room on my daily model for more down as the weekly continues to get more and more oversold. My intraday models are only slighlty mixed with most models in or near their respective oversold ranges. So, an intraday bounce is probable tomorrow.

Of course, non of this TA stuff is 100%...gg

LG

[rich ruscio]

LG:

The math makes sense to me, given that.

Assuming the so-called T3 day rule is a good proxy, 3x the $60K-ish number is about $200K (50K 4x 200K). Check.

Minimum of $50K 4x $200K allows you to "miss a day or a week" of $500 paydays every once in a while. Check.

What will you be looking for tomorrow to make this "a" bottom? Any chance that tomorrow you could see "the" bottom?

Appreciate your time and advice.

rr

[LG]

RCKS: It is time for a little "nip tuck"...gg

LG

[LG]

rich ruscio: Day Trading accounsts allow up to 4X margin during the trading day, 2X overnight. Keep in mind, you only get to trade using your closing excess marging as basis for the next day. So there is a big incentive for most to go to cash each day in a day trading account.

I recommend no less than 50K to start your first account (50K 4x 200K), among the suggestions you saw on ajtj's thread yesterday...gg

Be sure you understand the day trading rules "well" before you start and make sure you understand the day trading rules variances at each brokerage you use.

LG

[RCKS]

LG
Looking at our Dolly formation, it's starting to look like someone amputated her one arm and is trying to compress her whole side against a concrete wall. Her whole side missing all definition?
Is this a once in a lifetime experience, bg/ng.

[rich ruscio]

LG: I intended to ask a different question.

To make $500/day, it takes a certain amount of working capital. Using the numbers I used, that means employing $60-ish K per day.

Were the assumptions I used reasonable?

gain %, loss %, winning trade %

I'm looking for a working capital number here.

TIA, have a great evening, pray for me it's frozen here ...

rr

ps: Thank you for the answer you gave.

rr

[LG]

rr: I think trying to track each trade is so much extra work, that most folks will not keep it up, unless of course you use software that can capture the trades from your brokerages. Bottom line, some days it takes a minimal amount of trades to reach your goal, other days it takes more. And of course, some days you need to exceed your daily goal to compensate for the losing days. Your trading for an average daily goal.

Here is what I recommend spread sheet wise...

Tally Fields Use Column A (* Info generated by formula)

Trading Up Days*
Trading Down Days*
Percent Up Days*
Percent Down Days*
Total Trading Days*

Gains/Losses Summed*
Trading Day Average Gain/Loss*
Trading Weekly Average Gain/Loss* (5 trading days)
Trading Monthly Average Gain/Loss* (20 trading days)
Trading 11 Month Average Gain/Loss* (240 trading days with 20 days off from trading includes exchange holidays)

Columns

Date (Mon thur Friday, drag and drop auto remove weekends)
Traded Today (Yes/No) (Key in data, create drop down menu)
Recieved Confirmations (Yes/No) (Key in data, create drop down menu)
A column for each trading brokerage account opening balance (key in data)
Total Opening Day Balance* (sum of all your day trading brokerage accounts opening balances)
Daily Profit/Loss*
To Date Profit/Loss*
Daily Average Profit/Loss*
Deposit/Withdrawals (key in data) All relevant formulas need to include these in the overall computations.
Comments (key in data IE: Daily opening balance includes (Exchange fees, Interest, Platform fees, etc) Holiday, Vacation Day, etc)

Regards,
LG

[Chrisalias]

Aj, I saw you mention SKF and channels earlier.

I'm using Schwab Street Smart Pro software...they have Keltner channels as overlays.
I have heard of them but never used. Do you think they would be of any help in ascertaining support and resistance throughout the day on 2x etf's?.
I'm looking at them now, after the fact on todays SKF movement and they do seem like they would have helped..at least on supports.
but I haven't looked at it yet in real time, not sure if real time would work as well

[LG]

Chrisalias: Well, limit orders work for me using TS and since ajtj suggested SKF, I am having a much more profitable day than I would have as the market comes down to make new lows.

I love it when a plan comes together...gg

LG

[LG]

DJ Whilshire 5000 making a new low today...

LG

[LG]

SPY makes new intraday low...

LG

[TREND1]

LG
I have other accounts too.
BOA gives better market orders then Fidelity,
which is the only two I have tested.

---end of subject ----

[ajtj99]

Chrisalias, I usually try to get out of SKF on a pivot point or a top of a trendline. I wait for price to get there and hit the sell button.

If you look at the SKF 15-min chart you'll see SKF is having trouble surpassing rising resistance out of the early 11-17 highs through the afternoon highs yesterday.

[LG]

rr: That is not exactly how I track. I'll get back to you...gg

LG

[Chrisalias]

Aj, I agree with you regarding SKF and limit orders..the etf moves too fast with so much volatility.

As a general rule, I always use limit orders for purchases..I have had to deviate from this rule for SKF, TZA, FAZ..etc

My question for you is..how do you exit? Since SKF is so volatile ...Do you stop out?..or do you pick a sell point that you are satisfied with and dump there..hoping its a high point from which you can wait for the reversal and redo the process again?

Thanks

[rich ruscio]

LG: I've always liked to reduce things to Excel. If you've a moment from tutoring aj, would you please check over my assumptions here ...

 
 target per day	$500  
 average gain per win	2% 
 average loss per loss	1% 
 win ratio	60% 
 expected gain per trade	0.800% 
 required trade size	$62,500  
 

I picked $500 cause I'd rather make $100K than $72K per year , but all the rest of the numbers are guesses to get to the required trade size number.

There's also that 20 trade per day thing I saw here, which for this discussion would be about $3K per throw.

Are my assumptions close?

Thx,

rr

[LG]

TREND1: Most banks that offer brokerage services offer so many free trades per month based on the amount of money you have with them. None of the brokerages I use with banks have very good trading interfaces (platforms). So the free commissions are very secondary.

I only use those brokerages for medium to longer-term positions and all positions are established or exited using limit orders just to be safe.

LG

[LG]

ajtj: Free trades don't amount to much if the trading platform is not very efficient to use and the fills are not very quick and very good.

LG

[ajtj99]

Well, I've got about 20 round trips today on SKF, so I'd be screwed with that deal <G>

[TREND1]

aj99
Bank of America
Put $25,000 into CD
Result
30 free trades per month.
Every month.