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How can you leave when the market finally is a short?
the Nasdaq confirmed on 12/19
Use ADX with -DMI & +DMI and you will see the bearish crossover.
This board is officially closed. I am stepping down from the board so that I may focus on my own trading for 2007. I wish all luck and if anyone has any questions I will be around.
If anyone would like to take over this board let me know I will have you added.
Wednesday: 12/13/06 5:00 PM EST :
Treasuries fell hard today on strong economic news and a weak 10-Year Note auction. Stocks got little traction from the bullish economic data and the indices struggled to make negligible gains on the day. In late trading, the 10-Year Treasury Note was down by 23/32, raising its yield to 4.58%; the Dow was up by 1.92 points to 12,317.50; and the Nasdaq was up by 0.81 of a point to 2,432.41.
The news was that the level of retail sales rose much more than expected last month. The report argues a rate cut by the Fed early next year and rate-sensitive bonds fell in response. The other major release of the day had little impact on the markets. Business inventories rose again last month but a loss in sales produced a little more slack that eases production pressures.
Adding to the pressure on the bond market was new supply in the form of a 10-Year Note reopening. The offering met with tepid demand. Bids exceeded the $8 billion offer amount by 2.48 to 1. This was down from the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.91 in the last reopening in September and just slightly higher than the average of 2.44 for the thirteen reopenings (prior to today's) since the current issue schedule went into effect in 2003.
Non-competitive bids, a gauge of individual investor demand, totaled $13 million, down from $14 million in September and below the thirteen auction average of $35 million. Foreign demand was also soft. Indirect competitive bids, which include those from foreign central banks, garnered 12.6% of the issue, down from 18.7% in September and below the thirteen auction average of 15.6%.
The retail sales news initially gave a boost to the stock market but a discouraging oil inventory report roused fears that oil prices would head higher. The Energy Information Administration said that inventories of crude oil fell last week by 4.295 million barrels (one barrel equals forty-two gallons). This was a third consecutive weekly decline and the largest since early last July. On a year-over-year basis, however, inventory levels were 3.9% higher than they were a year earlier.
The report said that inventories of gasoline fell by 174,000 barrels, a third weekly decline that left supplies 3.0% lower than a year earlier. And inventories of distillates, which include diesel and heating fuel, fell by 445,000 barrels, a tenth weekly decline. Supplies of distillates were 1.7% lower than a year ago.
Oil futures did rise, the first time in four trading sessions. But increases were modest. A barrel of light, sweet crude oil for next month delivery rose by $0.35 on the New York Mercantile Exchange to settle at $61.36. Gains in the stock indices were also thin. The Dow advanced just 0.02% and the Nasdaq, 0.03%. The S&P 500 did not do much better with a gain of 0.12%.
Tomorrow brings the jobless claims report. Last Thursday's failed to provide a clear picture of the employment situation. It said that the seasonally adjusted level of initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 34,000 the previous week to 324,000. But the decline was essentially just a reversal of a 35,000 jump the week before, suggesting that the moves were a reflection of a faulty adjustment factor associated with the Thanksgiving closure of labor offices in late November. Now that the statistical bump has been assimilated, little change is expected in last week's claims figure.
The report on import and export prices for November also comes out tomorrow. The last report said that import prices fell by 2.0% in October following a same-sized decline in September. The development reduces inflation pressure and is, therefore, a plus for the bond market.
A key factor was the decline in imported petroleum product prices. They fell in October by 8.3% following a 9.7% decline the month before. But even if that category is excluded, import prices still fell by 0.6% in October following a 0.2% increase in September. Recent predictions are calling for another overall price decline of about 0.3%.
The change in export prices is also significant in its implications for the balance of trade. In October, export prices fell by 0.4%, matching September's decline. And, despite a 1.1% spike in the large but volatile category of agricultural products, export prices still fell by 0.5% in October after a 0.3% decline in September.
Fed stays on sidelines, leaves rates untouched
Bernanke, colleagues decide they still like benchmark at 5.25 percent.
BREAKING NEWS
MSNBC
Updated: 9 minutes ago
Federal Reserve policymakers Tuesday held their last scheduled meeting of the year and decided to leave short-term interest rates unchanged, saying the economy is likely to expand moderately next year despite a "substantial cooling of the housing market."
It was the fourth straight time Central Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues have met and elected to leave benchmark rates unchanged, with the key overnight lending rate locked at 5.25 percent, where it has stood since June 29.
The overnight rate, also known as the federal funds rate, affects a wide range of consumer and business loans and is used to set the commercial prime rate, among others.
With the U.S. economy clearly slowing, many economists have been asking whether a cut in rates may be needed to revive growth.
But based on recent comments by Fed members, inflation fears still have the upper hand in their discussions. The Fed said Tuesday that central bankers are concerned about pricing pressure but believe inflation will moderate "over time."
Bob McTeer, former president of the Dallas Fed, called the Fed statement "slightly more dovish" than after its last meeting in October because it stressed the "substantial" cooling of the housing market.
But he said the economic outlook was uncertain, meaning that Fed members will focus on inflation "because that's in their job description."
John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp., said the Fed's emphasis on the latest "mixed" economic indicators suggests the Fed is "not ready to raise rates and more likely to lower rates ahead."
He predicted the Fed will cut rates in March.
After kicking off the year with a sizzling 5.6 percent growth rate in the first quarter, the economy is now growing at less half that rate, due largely to a slowdown in the housing market and a slump in car sales.
The unemployment rate edged up to 4.5 percent last month, the government reported Friday. But employers also added 132,000 jobs in November, according to the government report. That was an improvement from just 79,000 added in October.
And holiday retail sales have generally been strong, although final results of this crucial season will not be known for several weeks. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, so the final two months of the year are key to the economic outlook.
Under former Chairman Alan Greenspan and then Bernanke, the Fed raised rates 17 straight times from June 2003 through June 2005, ratcheting up the overnight rate from a 46-year low of 1 percent to keep a lid on economic growth and inflation.
But the Feed's "pause" after its move more than five months ago has turned into a rate plateau, with analysts divided on whether the Fed will cut rates, raise rates or leave them unchanged next year.
The Fed's policymaking Open Market Committee is scheduled to hold its next meeting Jan. 30 and 31.
Full text of Fed statement
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market. Although recent indicators have been mixed, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace on balance over coming quarters.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.
Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Byes; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; William Poole; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.
© 2006 MSNBC Interactive
Info Provided by: MSN Business.
Stocks See Some Further Downside In Early Afternoon Trading
Dec 12 12:27 PM EST
With traders cashing in on some recent gains, the U.S. stock markets are seeing some weakness in early afternoon trading. The downward momentum comes as traders wait on the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement.
The markets have seen some further downside in recent trading, with the major averages pulling back to new lows for the session. The Dow is currently down 53.68 at 12,274.80, while the Nasdaq is down 19.58 at 2,423.28 and the S&P 500 is down 6.09 at 1,406.95. NYSE Adv/Dec 1340/1818, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1029/1862.
Profit taking has contributed to some weakness in the airline sector, with the Amex Airline Index currently down 3.2 percent after ending the previous session up 1.9 percent.
These 7.5 million shares have nothing to due with Nine or any other deal. This is a new offering for stock based compensation.
That's almost 11 million new shares this company has announced issuing in just two months. Printing shares like this is perfectly rational if the management thinks they are overvalued. Its also perfectly consistent with the recent accelerated insider sales ($60 million worth in the last 9 months).
This will of course increase the share count and thus the denominator in the EPS calculation. But the numerator, the net income has so many "pro forma" adjustments that EPS is almost meaningless as a financial measure for this company. They can almost make up any number they want and the street wont question it.
Although they wont expense the stock options in their pro results (although most tech companies now do), the will take the tax benefit, which is good for operating cash flow. The sell side will enjoy highlighting that (without noting OCF/Share suffers).
The face value of the new shares they will issue for compensation purposes in 2006 is about 8 times the dollar value of the regular cash compensation they are paying this year. That helps them hire more, and thus grow revenue more, and the street looks the other way on the dilution. That works great, until it doesnt - any pull back in the stock demoralizes employees. That hurts operations, which hurts the stock more, and so forth.
This is a great company. But the stock has become a ponzi scheme. And tying employee compensation to a ponzi scheme is bad for the company in the long term.
In the near term somebody very badly wants the stock to close above $55 on Friday (when that 8000 December $55 calls, corresponding to 800,000 shares, they bought in the last week expire). Someone has made a massive and very short term bet, and it wont be hard for someone operating with that kind of leverage to push the shares up another buck or so. I wont be surprised if it drops sharply first thing monday.
This company could grow for years at the recent clip before it catches up to its valuation. All valuations (including MSFT, GOOG) converge with reality at some point.
I think AKAM has had enough we should start to see profit taking and dumping.
Short the living crap out of AKAM
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=4537167
Spread the word, I want to see this bitch die!!!!!!!!!
It has become personal now.
This piece of crap was rolling over without a doubt, and then COWEN came in an upgraded it, and then some buyout rumor started that popped the stock up 8% in one day.
THis stock is GROSSLY overvalued and worth $34.70 in my opinion.
It is at least going to the $49.03 as per the issuance of these 7.5 million new shares.
You have never heard me scream before.
SHORT SHORT SHORT this HOG
Best Buy Falling After Failing To Meet Q3 Estimates [BBY]
12/12/2006 8:45:49 AM Best Buy Co. (BBY) reported third quarter EPS of $0.31 Tuesday morning, compared to $0.28 per share last year. Analysts expected earnings of $0.35 per share.
Revenues for the quarter rose to $8.47 billion from $7.33 billion in the comparable quarter a year-ago. The consensus revenue estimate came in at $8.41 billion.
The company said it remains on track to deliver annual earnings per diluted share of $2.65 to $2.80 due to new store openings, market share gains and expense controls. The company still expects earnings per share growth of 20% in fiscal 2007. Analysts expect earnings of $2.81 per share. The company expects to generate revenue growth approaching 16% for the fiscal year.
Best Buy closed up .79 at $53.92 Monday, near the middle of a month and a half range. The stock is down 2.74 at 317K shares in pre-market trading Tuesday.
Thanks everything looking good. Hows everything with you.
re: stockcharts
RIMM should have been shorted Decemember 1st per the daily chart, ditto for the 60 minute chart
SONS should be shorted to day at 10am. 60 minute chart. December 1st for the daily chart.
IAG shorted since November 27th on the daily chart. Buy signal 11am on the 60 minute chart.
EDS should have been shorted since November 29 on the daily chart. Buy signal since 9:30am with a possible head fake at $26.36.
AAPL should have been shorted since November 28th on the daily chart. Buy signal today at 9:30am with a possible head fake at 87.39.
We have to stick with one chart pattern come hell or high water and trade per chart. Floundering will make you go nuts. Daily is for swing traders and the 60/30 minute is for the day traders.
No forcasts nor projected signals ever used. WYSIWYG (wizzy wig) what you see is what you get and react accordingly. No majjic (magic) bullet.
Just a thought,
Quillandpenn
Man you find the coolest things This would mean a larger float so the price would drop.?
Unlock Dates for December 2006
12/4/06 – LoopNet is unlocking six million shares.
12/11/06 – Verasun Energy Corporation is unlocking 18.25 million shares.
12/11/06 – Verigy is unlocking 8.5 million shares.
12/12/06 – Volcano Corporation is unlocking 6.8 million shares.
12/25/06 – J. Crew Group Inc is unlocking 18.8 million shares.
12/25/06 – Replidyne is unlocking 4.5 million shares.
12/26/06 – Aventine Renewable Energy is unlocking 9.058 million shares.
That would be a good target.
from the look at the charts for NT whats the range it can fall.. its at 21.00 now if im doing my reading right it can fall to approx 19.00 range.. please correct me if im reading it wrong.. thanks
IFLO Monday. Short.
http://www.iqchart.com/webchart/default.asp?symbol=iflo&compare=&time=daily&period=180&a.... Long Term
They did a r/s on friday I believe you would have shorted that friday. The chart is actually looking good at the end of the month to buy I think this stock will turn around and head north soon. I think you can grab some profits from a short here short term good find.
NT looks like a good short also.. from the looks.. someone posted it on the board already... they did r/s 10-1 so many people will be looking to get out from the looks of it to me.. tell me what you think
Intermediate Term Shorts
1.EDS @ 26.55 Target will be 25.50
http://www.iqchart.com/webchart/default.asp?symbol=eds&compare=&time=daily&period=180&am....
2.AAPL Monday.
http://www.iqchart.com/webchart/default.asp?symbol=aapl&compare=&time=daily&period=180&a....
3.PFE Monday.
http://www.iqchart.com/webchart/default.asp?symbol=pfe&compare=&time=daily&period=180&am....
4.ROST Monay.
http://www.iqchart.com/webchart/default.asp?symbol=rost&compare=&time=daily&period=180&a....
NOVEMBER TRACK RECORD.
LCC@ 49.45 10/20/2006. BUY BACK 11/02/2006 @ 47.01$295.29 13 Days!
DISH@ 49.45 10/31/2006. BUY BACK 11/02/2006 @ 34.74$82.50 2 Days!
UNFI@ 34.75 11/02/2006. BUY BACK 11/03/2006 @ 31.75$429.00 1 Day!
PCU@ 52.00 10/30/2006. Stoped Out
SMMX@ 24.50 11/02/2006. BUY BACK 11/10/2006 @ 23.75$153.00 8 Day!
MGI@ 34.45 11/03/2006. BUY BACK 11/13/2006 @ 33.00 $210.25 10 Days!
ITU@ 33.80 10/30/2006. BUY BACK 11/13/2006 @ 32.50 $197.80 14 Days!
TIE@ 29.13 11/03/2006. BUY BACK 11/17/2006 @ 28.00 $193.23 14 Days!
XTO@ 46.00 11/13/2006. Stopped out 11/17/2006
ROST@ 31.19 11/13/2006. BUY BACK 11/18/2006 @ 30.19 $160.30 5 Days!
AG@ 30.18 11/14/2006. Stoped Out 11/21/2006
CHK@ 31.90 10/30/2006. Stoped Out 11/17/2006
NSM@ 25.20 11/16/2006. BUY BACK 11/21/2006 @ 24.50 $200.00 5 Days!
TOLStoped Out
KERX@ 14.40 11/27/2006. BUY BACK 11/30/2006 @ 13.80 $208.20 3 Days!
OK EDS comming up on its short pos. 26.55 common down to papa.
You would like this board to surf its my swing trade board. Feel free to post. Add to email list if you wish. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6378
How you been James.
Nice take profits and run.
NVDA - read news
NT - Reverse split
sorry I am so late
been busy
RIMM, AKAM going down
Intermediate Term Shorts
1.EDS @ 26.55 Target will be 25.50
GOOG down another $7.00 today! Thats $27.00 in 2 days! WOW!
NCR RBC TD&BMO???
banks and financial service related companies should be peaking. Fewer house starts/resales should be a good indicator for where banks are headed. RBC--amex (not the bank) looks ready to pull back.
Finally, although a tad premature a few weeks ago, I believe RIMM is way overbought, has gone up too fast and ultimately--is due for at least a 10% correction (although i hear sales of the new Pearl are roaring so be prepared to cover in a hurry;))
cheers,
dp
OH
If indeed these limits are kicking in, and pausing this selloff, you can about count on one wicked gap down in the morning.
Can you yell "fire" in a crowded movie theatre?
I knew you could.
CURBS
Does anyone remember all that? It's been awhile, I know.
I did know, but I'm having a dumbass attack today.
I thought 160 on the DJI was the limit, but apparently I am wrong.
This is the best I can find, so far.
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/equity/pricelimits2549.html
BOOM getting ready for the big one. Tomorrow should confirm.
Even though there is the big MA x over I feel we can short this one for a few days. It had been trading sidways for 2 days on the candles view and hit its resistance line at 31.00 3 times and never crossed my confirmation point was just below the opening of the previous day. If we break 29 we will see 26.50. I want to say that the MA x over with the 50 crossing the 200 will bounce. And contiune down. Its a riskier short than most.
Please enlighten me as to how TOL "confirmed"
In general you cant short any stock under 5 bucks. Unless I think you have an ameritrade account which they now let you do this.
NO - I am not shorting it and I have great difficulty shorting stocks in general
GOOG is down over $14.00!
Updates
3.TOL 11/27/2006 @ 30.75.
4.HLT 11/27/2006 @ 33.45.
5.BOOM waiting on confirmation.
6.KERX 11/27/2006 @ 14.40
Love it HLT good call.
39.00 is first support line now. But it has to break the 20 Day MA I think it will though. March 2006 repeat of chart. It should over a long period of time touch the 200 MA. But lets pass 43.00 then on to 39.00 I would trail stop.
how low u think vrtx will go?
long term? lower than 100.00 But 340.00 would be better. I think it will do what yahoo did few years back. When I did the calculation it was more like 80.00 but thats a long way away. Lets see 340.00 first.
ya i can see that drop baby drop!! how low u think it will go?
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