The Trade Desk Inc (TTD)

[eastunder]

Think The Trade Desk's Best Days Are Behind It? Think again.
By Danny Vena | May 08, 2025, 8:51 PM

https://finviz.com/news/52832/think-the-trade-desks-best-days-are-behind-it-think-again

The past few months have been fraught with uncertainty for investors in The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD). The programmatic advertiser delivered an unbroken track record of beating its own guidance for 32 consecutive quarters as it closed out 2024. Then, to the surprise of Wall Street and Main Street alike, The Trade Desk stumbled, missing analysts' consensus estimates and its own forecast. In the wake of its disappointing quarter, the stock went into freefall and shed more than 60% of its value as fair-weather investors headed for the exits.

It isn't surprising, then, that shareholders were sitting on the edge of their seats when the company released its quarterly financial results after the market close on Thursday. Indeed, those who took a long-term view had their faith rewarded as The Trade Desk returned to form and looked to put its troubles behind it.

A stark about-face
The Trade Desk's first-quarter results went a long way in assuring investors that the company's best days are still ahead. Revenue of $616 million grew 25% year over year, accelerating from 22% growth in Q4. The results were reflected in the bottom line, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33, representing an increase of 27%.

To give the numbers some context, analysts' consensus estimates were calling for revenue of $575.3 million and adjusted EPS of $0.25.

Helping drive the results was the increased adoption of The Trade Desk's artificial intelligence (AI)-infused Kokai platform. The new, advanced media buying platform features enhanced decision-making and ad campaign measurement tools. Kokai can access more than 13 million advertising impressions every second, helping distill the complexity of those choices into actionable intelligence within milliseconds. The Trade Desk says the platform helps "advertisers buy the right ad impressions, at the right price, to reach the target audience, at the best time.

The company stumbled in the fourth quarter as it faced logistical issues transitioning existing customers from its legacy Solimar platform to Kokai. The Trade Desk immediately embarked on a reorganization to make the company more nimble, while better positioning it to capture emerging opportunities, including connected TV (CTV), retail media, and audio.

"We're encouraged by the early impact of the strategic upgrades at the company we implemented in Q4, which contributed to our outperformance," said co-founder and CEO Jeff Green. "As we build on this momentum, we're optimistic about our ability to continue to outpace the market and deliver increasing value to marketers who prioritize objective, transparent, and data-driven media buying on the open internet."

The Trade Desk also cited its strong customer retention, which remained above 95% during the quarter, a track record that goes back 11 consecutive years.

What the future holds
Some investors were justifiably concerned after The Trade Desk's precipitous fall from grace, but its rapid recovery bodes well for the future. Furthermore, the tone of management's commentary and its outlook suggest the best is yet to come.

For the second quarter, The Trade Desk is guiding for revenue of at least $682 million, which would represent growth of about 17% year over year. It's worth noting that management has a tendency to issue conservative guidance. Its track record (with that one notable exception) shows the results are typically higher.

The Trade Desk stock is currently selling for 34 times forward earnings. While that's something of a premium, the average multiple over the past three years has been closer to 55, so the stock is trading at a significant discount to its historical price.

Don't expect that bargain to last for long. In the wake of its blockbuster financial report, investors have bid the stock up more than 11% in after-hours trading.

[eastunder]

Trade Desk beats first-quarter results estimates on strong demand for ad tech
16:41:17 PM ET, 05/08/2025 - Reuters
(Adds details throughout)

May 8 (Reuters) - The Trade Desk on Thursday posted first-quarter revenue and profit above analysts' estimates, aided by strong demand for automated ad-buying technologies, sending it shares up 14% in extended trading.

The ad firm's strong results come at a time when businesses are reducing marketing spend amid prevailing recession fears and uncertain economy.

The ad-buying platform offers advertisers access to a vast network of publishers and media partners across industries, allowing them to precisely target their ad campaigns.

The Trade Desk is building support for its advertising identifier, Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), which it says is more privacy focused and an upgrade and alternative to third-party cookies.

Revenue for the first quarter grew 25% to $616 million, beating estimates of $584 million, according to data compiled by LSEG.

On an adjusted basis, the company earned 33 cents per share for the quarter, above estimates of 25 cents.

Trade Desk, which has partnerships with retailers such as Walmart, forecast second-quarter revenue of at least $682 million, slightly below analysts' average estimate of $683.2 million. (Reporting by Kritika Lamba in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)

[rosemountbomber]

What happened?

[Stockman1010101]

Trump suspended Tariffs today for 90 Days for all countries except China. Market is rocketing over this.
TTD going back to $100. IMHO.
Load em up baby!
GLTA

[Stonerex]

TTD ... How much tariff will be levied
on desks and chairs 🪑?? If I want to trade my L shaped desk with my neighbor's executive desk for 4 days, can the Trade Desk assist in that transaction?? Will they have to dismantle the desks before trading them?? How exactly does The Trade Desk trade desks ??

[eastunder]

TTD

curr. pps 59.34

[PennyRookie0]

We have to be close to a bottom. It could take a while to start to gain traction back up. Seems like here would be a decent chance to get in or average down.

[ZenElf84]

Seems like the RSI is rising too slowly right now. Maybe some time next week but if I see volume I'll probably jump on.

[bcapps66]

What's your opinion on the liklihood of a dead-cat bounce tomorrow?

[ZenElf84]

Fairpoint. Her ETF has been iffy for me for a while but I do try to track the activity to see where things go.

[eastunder]

You are not alone, a lot of people feel that way. LOL

But she already owns a pretty large position in TTD, and has for a while, from what I can tell.

So she wouldn't be buying in, right? She would be adding.

Which she should if she truly has conviction. If she sells more on this drop that would have a different reason.

[ZenElf84]

Cathie Woods buying in is typically NOT a good sign in my eyes... I feel like ARK is usually a little too early or too late..... but I am bullish on TTD

[eastunder]

Seems pretty over reactive and makes you wonder what else is going on, doesn't it?

It's down 35 bucks in pre trade? From 122 to 86

I don't own TTD, but I do keep an eye on it. I'll be curious if Cathie Wood will buy more in her ARK funds.

When it opens this basic chart is going to look a lot different





and a gap from August is going to fill. Which is nuts. Thats a hefty drop in one moment.

[eastunder]

The Trade Desk Inc (TTD) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic Shifts ...
GuruFocus News
Thu, February 13, 2025 at 12:18 AM MST 4 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-desk-inc-ttd-q4-071832087.html

Total Spend on Platform: Exceeded $12 billion for 2024.

Annual Revenue: Surpassed $2.4 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase.

Adjusted EBITDA: Over $1 billion for the year.

Free Cash Flow: More than $600 million for the year.

Q4 Revenue: $741 million, a 22% year-over-year increase.

Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: $350 million, representing a 47% margin.

Q4 Operating Expenses: $416 million, up 23% from the previous year.

Adjusted Net Income for Q4: $297 million or $0.59 per fully diluted share.

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities in Q4: $199 million.

Free Cash Flow in Q4: $177 million.

Cash and Liquidity Position: Approximately $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at year-end.

Share Repurchase: $57 million of Class A common stock repurchased in Q4.

Q1 2025 Revenue Outlook: At least $575 million, reflecting 17% year-over-year growth.

Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Estimate: Approximately $145 million.



Release Date: February 12, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) achieved a record-breaking year in 2024 with total spend on their platform exceeding $12 billion and revenue surpassing $2.4 billion, marking a 26% year-over-year growth.

The company generated over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA and delivered more than $600 million in free cash flow, highlighting the strength of their platform.

The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) has made significant structural changes, including the largest reorganization in company history, to improve clarity in roles and responsibilities and streamline client-facing teams.

The company is focusing on expanding brand direct relationships, which are growing 50% faster than the rest of their business, and increasing resource allocation on brands.

The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) is investing heavily in AI to enhance targeting, optimization, forecasting, and identity measurement, positioning them for future growth.

Negative Points

For the first time in 33 quarters, The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) fell short of their own expectations, missing their guidance due to a series of small execution missteps.

The company experienced slower than anticipated rollout of their Kokai platform, impacting short-term performance.

There were challenges in the fourth quarter due to a polarized political environment and lower GDP, which affected advertising budgets.

The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) anticipates a modest increase in the growth rate of operating expenses in 2025, which may lead to some margin compression.

The company faces competition from major players like Amazon, which is aggressively improving its DSP and expanding Prime Video ads, posing a competitive threat.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Jeff, what went wrong in the fourth quarter where you came in below expectations?
A: Jeffrey Green, CEO: We missed our own expectations due to a series of small execution missteps while preparing for the future. It wasn't due to a smaller opportunity or increased competition. We are recalibrating the company to address a larger opportunity faster than anticipated. We've made structural changes, including a major reorganization, agile product development, and clearer roles for client-facing teams to ensure this doesn't become a pattern.

Q: Can you elaborate on the factors that contributed to the Q4 shortfall and how they differ from industry trends?
A: Jeffrey Green, CEO: In 2022, we outperformed despite macro challenges. This time, we had internal execution issues, including a slower Kokai rollout, which was partly deliberate to inject AI and improve long-term performance. The political environment and economic factors weren't ideal, but we've navigated similar conditions before. The changes we're making are aimed at capturing a larger market share.

Q: How do you view the company's potential to sustain a 20%-plus compound growth rate over the next several years?
A: Jeffrey Green, CEO: We need to focus on making the open Internet better than walled gardens, leveraging our access to premium media. Our supply chain improvements and focus on scale, objectivity, and CTV growth are key. We believe we can reaccelerate growth by addressing these areas and capturing opportunities left by Google and Facebook's shift away from the open Internet.

Q: What are your thoughts on Google's potential exit from the open Internet and its impact on The Trade Desk? A: Jeffrey Green, CEO: Google's network business has been deprioritized, and I believe they will eventually exit the open Internet, creating a significant opportunity for us. This shift could happen abruptly or gradually, but we are positioning ourselves to capture the opportunity. Google's exit would remove a major hindrance to an effective supply chain, benefiting us and the open Internet.

Q: Can you discuss the role of OpenPath and the Sincera acquisition in your strategy?
A: Jeffrey Green, CEO: OpenPath allows major content owners to integrate directly with us, bypassing SSPs. This is financially beneficial for them and aligns with their desire for yield control. The Sincera acquisition will enhance supply chain visibility and efficiency, ensuring we buy inventory from those who describe it best. We expect 2025 to be a pivotal year for OpenPath's growth.

[ZenElf84]

What the hell happened today. That miss was catastrophic!

[Monksdream]

TTD new 52 week high

[Monksdream]

TTD new 52 week high

[Monksdream]

TTD new 52 week high

[Monksdream]

TTD new 52 week high

[1hot toddy]

WOOOW 6K BUY PLUS FEW 3K AND BUNCE 1K BUYS JUST IN LAST HOUR $$$$$$$$$$

[Dallas-Cowboys]

It figures the market is down the day after they report

[Dallas-Cowboys]

The strike in the auto industry took them down last Quarter hopefully they have resolved their dependence

[getmoreshares]

$606m massive revs!

[getmoreshares]

sold all my share- had more of a loss than a gain-- GOOD BYE- Good luck to all.. already made up for the loss on OTC plays. Specifically ZHUD and BLFR- Both will go MUCH HIGHER.

[getmoreshares]

moving up

[Dallas-Cowboys]

The problem was they forecast 18% revenue in 2024 versus the streets 24% I believe

[getmoreshares]

SMH- yes- may pick up some tomorrow- revs UP 25%- could not believe the dip. MASSIVE sell after the close

[Wobbles]

That has to be a knee jerk reaction.
Over sold, buy buy buy.

[getmoreshares]

52.74 low AH

[getmoreshares]

WTF??????????????? $54

[getmoreshares]

EARNINGs today- after the close

[getmoreshares]

79.08 close 3.40 gain Day Range: 76.4981 - 80.07
Last Trade Time: 3:46:13 PM EDT

[getmoreshares]

link for the insiders trades https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17028152&guid=iC5-ke5LYXbXdth

) 23,004 D $71.01 (2) 1,339,741 I See Footnote (3)
Class A Common Stock 11/1/2023 S(1) 55,520 D $71.06 (4) 1,284,221 I See Footnote (3)
Class A Common Stock 11/2/2023 S(1) 70,699 D $74.91 (5) 1,213,522 I See Footnote (3)
Class A Common Stock 11/2/2023 S(1) 4,301 D $75.49 (6) 1,209,221 I See Footnote (3)

[getmoreshares]

there were many recent insider sells-- form 4's. Picked up some $66.xx and averaged down last week. helped the average -now $82. Still RED- not worried.

[Dallas-Cowboys]

Coming back from Snap’s poor earnings and broad market sell off. Hulu definitely helped

[getmoreshares]

MONSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[getmoreshares]

75.68 close +4.93 (6.95%) --Day Range: 74.34 - 76.13

[getmoreshares]

75.48 pre market

[getmoreshares]

74.30 3.54 (5.00%)

[getmoreshares]

AH 72.85 1.89 (2.66%)

[getmoreshares]

AH 72.70 +1.74 (2.38%)

[getmoreshares]

AH 72.50 + 1.54

[getmoreshares]

The Trade Desk Inc 70.765 -0.195 (-0.27%) Day Range: 69.21 - 71.34
Last Trade Time: 3:59:36 PM EDT

[getmoreshares]

70.96 + 3.01 close Day Range: 68.17 - 71.07

[getmoreshares]

AH 68.35 + 1.49

[getmoreshares]

67.95 + 1.09 Day Range: 66.52 - 68.22

[getmoreshares]

66.86 close + .64 Day Range: 66.37 - 68.3393

[getmoreshares]

added at 66.83

[getmoreshares]

recovery -- still a long way to go 86.08 now

[getmoreshares]

AH 67.50