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I've always liked what James Grant has to say and in the article linked below, he expects a long bear market in bonds as rates continue to rise and he cites Japan as a major global economic risk. He also likes gold.
My Comment: There has to be a severe price to pay for the past 35 years of reckless Fed and other CBs monetary policies. And I can see rates rising just due to the ever increasing sovereign debt because investors will need to be compensated for the risk of holding that debt especially as inflation continues to rise.
Jim Grant Warns "Japan Is Perhaps The Most Important Risk In The World" | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-warns-japan-perhaps-most-important-risk-world
Excerpts
What is your advice to investors in this environment?
Having just mocked the central banks for their pretending to know what they can’t know, I’m in a very compromised position if I were to say what is going to happen. But allow me to suggest that I’m somewhat of a broken record on gold. I’m going to continue with this broken record and observe that people have not yet come to terms with the essential inherent weaknesses of the monetary system that has been in place since 1971. [color=red][/color]We have all gotten used to it. I mean, you have to be a person of a certain age, indeed you have to be as old as I am, to really recall the debates surrounding the abandonment of Bretton Woods. People have grown up with the idea that money is what they print, and if the Japanese can print $50 billion a day with which to suppress interest rates, that doesn’t shock many people. But I think such shocks do lay ahead.[color=red][/color]
And gold can help protect a portfolio against such shocks?
I think that the strains that are already obvious will become more so. People will be looking around not for a better brand of paper or digital money, but rather for the real McCoy.[color=red][/color] In every issue of «Grant’s» we have something to say about a stock, so I don’t want to sound too much of a nutcase. We do live in the real world. But when I look at the very big picture, the money the central banks produce in such profusion is unsound. It may not be now, but in time, people will look around for an alternative and that alternative may just be gold - the thing that has been more or less a shadow cast by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the other crypto currencies.
But the Fed has everything under control and a soft landing is assured. No?
Mkt is still grossly overpriced and setting up for major decline. Recent low was a 20week low and it is straddled by 7week/36 day cycle. Effect is peaks either side of low with peaks 7weeks apart. Next peak will be this week. Looking for high approx 4120 SPX. A break of short term trendline will start decline towards 3400-3000. Low later in year potentially is 2500 area
Zoltan Pozsar, The Four Prices Of Money, And The Coming Gold Bull Market
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/zoltan-pozsar-four-prices-money-and-coming-gold-bull-market
Excerpt:
How will the price of money be altered this time around? According to Pozsar, through interest rates and price level (yield curve control). After the US weaponized its currency to freeze Russia’s assets, the amount of US government debt that needs to be financed is larger than the world is willing to absorb. The Federal Reserve will bail out the government by buying up bonds of all maturities, effectively capping yields across the curve. Inflation will stay elevated, above the entire yield curve, which lowers the value of money. In this environment investors and foreign central banks will flee to gold.
US To Hit Debt Ceiling One Week From Today, Starting Countdown To Epic Chaos
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hit-debt-ceiling-one-week-today-starting-countdown-epic-chaos
US To Hit Debt Ceiling One Week From Today, Starting Countdown To Epic Chaos
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hit-debt-ceiling-one-week-today-starting-countdown-epic-chaos
Tomorrow's CPI may push the SPX to that 4050 level. Too many people still think the stock market is the best place to invest as they continue to place their hopes on China reopening and a Fed pivot, neither of which I expect to materialize any time soon.
Roubini: More War Means More Inflation
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/roubini-more-war-means-more-inflation
Nouriel Roubini says gold may be your best protection as the mother of all debt bombs & nine other megathreats are looming
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-10/Gold-may-be-your-best-protection-mother-of-all-debt-bombs-nine-other-megathreats-are-looming-Nouriel-Roubini.html
Dr Doom's Mother-Of-All-Crises Looming
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/dr-dooms-mother-all-crises-looming
$SPX $SDS sold 1 of 2 SDS at 4438 for profit of 200+pts on avg cost. Expecting SPX rally to 4100 area with target time last week Jan. Will add to bear position with SPX above 4050. Targeting 3000 or lower nominally March, but potentially 2000-2500 afterwards
IRS looks to partner with crypto companies to combat financial crime
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-03/IRS-looks-to-partner-with-crypto-companies-to-combat-financial-crime.html
My Comment: Are these guys serious? I doubt crypto companies would want the IRS meddling in their business. They want to be opaque to hide their own criminality.
Mish: Is Inflation Always And Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/mish-inflation-always-and-everywhere-monetary-phenomenon
[Note: TCMDO=Total Credit Market Debt]
Excerpt:
TCMDO is $92 trillion. Data is through the third quarter of 2022.
How the heck is that supposed to be paid back?
Forget about M2, for now. Watch TCMDO instead. If credit collapses, the economy and the Fed is in deep trouble.
By the way, please note M2 money supply is $21.4 trillion while total credit owed TCMDO is $92.2 trillion.
Will these converge? Which way, how, and when?
Another one bites the dust -
Midas Investments shuts down, taking over 55% of customers' funds
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-28/Midas-Investments-shuts-down-taking-over-55-of-customers-funds.html
Mark Cuban says this about gold:
"Gold is a store of value, and so is Bitcoin," he said. "If everything went to hell in a handbasket and you had a gold bar, you know what would happen? Someone would beat the f**k out of you or kill you and take your gold bar. It's useless."
My Comment: First they'd have to know you have the gold and secondly, they'd have to get past the shotgun blast. Crypto currency can be stolen by corrupt exchanges and by online hackers and of course you're out of luck if you forget your key
It's all about the DEBT -
My Comment: I'm expecting the national debt to reach $40Trillion by 2026 as the deficits balloon in the recession. $2Triilion annual deficits.
Big Spending Bill Is A Big Problem For The Fed's Inflation Fight
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/big-spending-bill-big-problem-feds-inflation-fight
Excerpts:
The $1.7 trillion bill will fund government operations for the remainder of fiscal 2023. It includes some $800 billion in domestic spending, a 9.3% increase over fiscal 2022. It also includes $858 billion in military spending, a 10% increase over last year’s levels.
Of course, this is only one component of federal expenditures. In March 2021, Congress approved $1.9 trillion in spending to address the pandemic, and earlier this year, it passed the euphemistically named “Inflation Reduction Act.” All of that spending will pile on top of this most recent allocation of funding.
Guess G7 not funding the markets might not be number one in your book, whom could guess?
5 Global Flashpoints Which Could Absolutely Explode During The Early Stages Of 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/5-global-flashpoints-which-could-absolutely-explode-during-early-stages-2023
Is another crypto shoe about to drop? -
December 16 – Financial Times (Scott Chipolina, Michael O’Dwyer, Martha Muir, Joshua Oliver, and Stephen Foley i): “Outflows from Binance accelerated to $6bn in the first half of this week, while accounting firm Mazars has halted its work on crucial ‘proof of reserves’ reporting, as the crypto exchange battles to avert a crisis of confidence. Binance… is battling to reassure investors of its financial strength following the collapse of rival crypto exchange FTX. The exchange said on Friday that it had been hit by roughly $6bn in net withdrawls between Monday and Wednesday.”
Gold in 2023 -
Outrageous! This is what gets gold to $3,000 in 2023, says Saxo Bank | Kitco News
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-06/Outrageous-This-is-what-gets-gold-to-3-000-in-2023-says-Saxo-Bank.html
My Comment: I would add the impact of soaring debt in a recession and a financial crisis.
There is $65 Trillion in off-balance sheet debt in addition to the on-balance sheet debt.
Obviously top is in. OBJ below SPX 3000. Holding two units of SDS 4413 and 4046. Obj 7000 plus.
Obviously top is in. OBJ below SPX 3000. Holding two units of SDS 4413 and 4046. Obj 7000 plus.
$65 Trillion in global hidden debt -
My Comment: The next financial crisis will be huge. It's all about the DEBT.
December 5 – Bloomberg (Paul J. Davies): “Sixty-five trillion dollars is a not big number: It’s a huge, barely comprehensible number. It’s more than 2 1/2 times the size of the entire US Treasury market, the world’s biggest. It’s 14% of the value of all financial assets globally… It’s also the value of hidden dollar debt unrecorded on the balance sheets of non-US banks and shadow banks as of June this year, also according to the BIS… It has been growing rapidly, having nearly doubled since 2008. The fact that most of this hidden debt is owed to banks is another reminder of the ever-growing and opaque interconnections between the traditional financial system and the shadow banking sector. A whole set of recent mini-crises has shown that these links are part of why central banks keep being forced to step in and stabilize government bond markets and other assets when stress levels rise.
Chinese Health Official Admits 80-90% Of Population May End Up With COVID
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-health-official-says-80-90-population-may-end-covid
My Comment: China has some real problems ahead
Biden is a wimp -
My Comment: From my vantage point Biden just keeps Fumbling and Bumbling into wrong decisions. I think trading Viktor Bout ("The Merchant of Death") for Griner was on par with his exit from Afghanistan. Griner knew or she should have known what Russian law was regarding drugs and she took the risk. Also, Biden says he has more important things than visiting the Border where illegals are swamping the Border Patrol. Also, Biden keeps trying to get debt forgiveness for student loans. Students took out those loans and they should be responsible for paying them, not taxpayers. We have two more years of bad decisions from Biden if his health holds up.
Russia Releases 1st Footage Of Griner, Bout Prisoner Swap
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-biden-explains-why-he-swapped-russian-merchant-death-wnba-star
The top of this rally has probably been seen. The CCI indicators are excellent cyclic monitors and the CCI for 216days/43weeks gave a sell signal yesterday, as did the shorter length cycles. Therefore, enter on pullback and/or breakout. Breakout is probably 4413 on SDS, and if a rally then perhaps 4040 SPX/4275 SDS.
65-trillion-of-derivatives-debt-sparks-concern
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/65-trillion-of-derivatives-debt-sparks-concern/vi-AA14WIk1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=17c8482fb27f4ba48e601d63572826f8&category=foryou
$SPX the slope of both 108 and 216day MAs flipped to positive in the past several weeks, at approx the same price of 3950. This generates a target range of 4290-4395. With the imminent peak of 20week cycle, I suggest bearish positions using SDS with SPX at 4290 and again at 4370, risking to 4710 purely on risk/reward considerations. Objective is below 3000 at the low.
America's Insolvency Is Mandatory
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/americas-insolvency-mandatory
Excerpt:
Without action, however, time is coming for Social Security and Medicare in a big way. Social Security’s trust fund is projected to run out around around 2035. Absent congressional intervention, that will trigger a 20% cut for everyone receiving benefits when the well runs dry. Medicare’s trust fund is projected to vanish in just six years, with less clarity on how shrinking resources will be apportioned.
Milton Berg:
“The US Dollar Is a Joke”
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/download/global-macro-update-transcript-milton-berg
This is what I think. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. I know people talk about supply
chains and shortages. In the history of the world, all inflation is caused by the money increase
to a greater extent than goods increase, and goods and services increase. And this has been
going on for decades, where the Federal Reserve has been basically... I don’t want to use the
word printing because they don’t really print. They’ve been allowing credit to increase, debt
and credit to increase.
Now, if you get an honest Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell is honest and he wants to get
inflation back down to 2% or lower, it’s going to be very difficult for our economy. It’s going to
be very difficult. Rates are going to have to go high, and it’s probably going to be very, very
deflationary. Very, very deflationary and very, very negative for the economy.
On the other hand, if that happens, the United States can’t pay down their debts because if
rates go up, the United States have been borrowing on the short end, they won’t be able to pay
down the debts except if they raise taxes. And if they raise taxes to the extent they can pay
down the debt, it’s going to again, be very deflationary, very depressionary. So, the choices at
Federal Reserve, are they honest and they want to have real money and they don’t want the
fiat money to be strong, what do they say? Listen, we can’t allow a government to go bankrupt
and can’t allow a government to raise taxes to 60, 70, 80% to cover their debts, and we’re going
to increase money supply.
So, it depends on what the Fed does, but it’s a choice. Either we have strong inflation in the
future if they’re a dishonest Fed, or you have an inflationary period or a deflationary period if
they really want to have sound money in the United States.
Ed D’Agostino:
I think this leads into an asset class that I think confuses a lot of people, and that’s gold. It really
hasn’t performed as well as, I think, most people would expect in an inflationary environment.
Is that really a function of the strength of the dollar up until now—or is there another reason
why you feel gold maybe is lagging a little bit? And what’s your forecast?
Milton Berg:
I believe that gold has acted very, very well. If you look at the history of gold, there’s no
retained assets in gold. There’s no retained earnings. The price of gold is not the price of a
stock. It’s not a price of a stock like Apple. A company like Apple Computer, they manufacture
things, they make money, and they retain their earnings, and they pay earnings to
shareholders. Gold is an asset that should maintain its inflationary value, maintain its value over
the years, over the decades. And gold has.
In fact, going back 100 years or so, gold returned more than 3% per annum... 3–4% per annum,
which is above the inflation rate over that period. That’s all gold is supposed to do. Now, gold is
very cyclical, and therefore you have big moves up and big moves down in gold. But the fact
that you have inflation now does not tell you that gold has to move up in price right now.
A prime example is, from 1980 to the year 2000, gold collapsed from $850 per ounce to $250
per ounce while the CPI doubled. Again, CPI doubled, gold is cut more than in half. Gold does
not track inflation on a year-to-year basis. But over the long term, gold maintains its value in an
inflationary environment.
That is why people who are smart and want to keep their assets for themselves and for their
children or grandchildren, keep it in gold. Because if it’s in gold, it’s in your safe deposit box. Or
if it’s in your safe, it will not be taxed. You don’t pay interest on the income. It won’t go
bankrupt. But it’s going to maintain its value.
So, if you want to buy your child a Lamborghini, and you want to put $300,000 worth of gold in
a safe deposit box. You tell my six-year-old grandson, “When you’re 36 years old, just take this
gold, you’ll buy a Lamborghini then.”
In other words, it’ll retain its value. You can’t say that with any other currency. And I’m not sure
you can say that with Bitcoin either, because I don’t think Bitcoin is actually a currency. It’s just
my opinion as well. But gold has been a great method of maintaining long-term value. And
again, you don’t pay taxes on it.
That should be week35 of 40-43week cycle.
$SPX we are currently in week15 of the 21week cycle, and weekly of the 40-43 week cycle, counting from prior highs. IMHO 3830 is a reasonable lower boundary of 21week channel, and fits with action point for 30min pnf using atr boxes. So, hang in there for another several weeks.
I think the Fed is fighting a losing battle against inflation and with all of the Fed hawkishness (Bullard says 7% Fed rate needed into 2024 to quell inflation) a hard recession is in the cards given how fragile the global economy is after 35 years of reckless Fed policies that created one bubble after another. It's the debt!!! The debt will really bite in a recession and the national debt will soar. The Fed is fighting a mirage since inflation is a supply problem, not a demand problem. With bird flu (1.8Million chickens destroyed) and swine flu and climate change and the war in Ukraine driving up food prices and now Chinese rioting against zero-covid lockdowns impacting supply chains and China's economy, and driving up inflation, the Fed has no control over the drivers of inflation. Gold will win eventually.
When will all our patience pay off holders have been beaten down .
Are we just optimists or dumb for persevering ........
COVID Lockdown Protests Erupt In Beijing, Xinjiang After Deadly Fire
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-lockdown-protests-erupt-beijing-xinjiang-after-deadly-fire
My Comment: So, what options does China have to fight Covid if lockdowns are resisted? Lockdowns are not working as the number of daily new cases of Covid keep rising. I suspect Covid will be a worsening problem and it will also slow the economy. Could China's economy be the catalyst for the next financial crisis?
N-I-K....................H-I-U...............
M-O-U-S-E
$SPX the nominal 20week cycle still dominates, and we are in week14 implying nominal top early Jan2023. I use 43weeks or 216days. with halfcycle 108days. The price at which the MA108 slope will flip positive (smoothed) is approx 3975, and solid violation would generate target of 4400-4500. The Sentient Trader discord has several analyses combining multiple cycles and generating a top in approx 2nd week of December . I remain flat, awaiting trendline break as sign of 20week top. The widest channel would be based on slope of MA27, but others representing shorter cycles would be preferable in Dec as top is closer.
Another one in trouble -
GBTC discount hits a record 45.2%, prompting some to wonder if Grayscale will be the next black swan.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-11-21/GBTC-discount-hits-a-record-45-2-prompting-some-to-wonder-if-Grayscale-will-be-the-next-black-swan.html
My Comment: Biance is the big one and I suspect there's a lot of shenanigans there also
Excerpt:
The newest contagion risk to emerge from the FTX debacle that threatens to plunge the cryptocurrency market even deeper into the doldrums is uncertainty around Grayscale and its flagship crypto product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
I knew it would end badly just hope my friends I urged not too buy did not .
For those that did I pray they got out before the collapse .
Nothing like gold and silver !
WOW!! How could you ever trust crypto? -
FTX bankruptcy filings rebuke SBF, decry ‘complete absence of trustworthy financial information'
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-11-17/FTX-bankruptcy-filings-rebuke-SBF-decry-complete-absence-of-trustworthy-financial-information.html
My Comment: The Fed gave a green light for speculators and money was cheap. How many more such schemes will be uncovered in the economy? The Fed has made a total mess of the economy with unlimited QE.
These two need to talk to each other and come to an agreement about where gold is headed.
'Big Short' Michael Burry says this is gold's time, cites crypto 'contagion'
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-11-16/-Big-Short-Michael-Burry-says-this-is-gold-s-time-cites-crypto-contagion.html
TDS says Gold's selloff isn't over, sees prices falling to $1,575 in Q1 2023
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-11-16/TDS-says-Gold-s-selloff-isn-t-over-sees-prices-falling-to-1-575-in-Q1-2023.html
Nouriel Roubini says the cryptocurrency ecosystem is 'totally corrupt'
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-11-16/Nouriel-Roubini-says-the-cryptocurrency-ecosystem-is-totally-corrupt.html
My Comment: I agree with Roubini both on crypto and the economy
Excerpts:
This past week the outspoken professor at the NYU Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates has made headlines describing cryptocurrencies as a "corrupt cesspool." But he took his battle to new highs Wednesday, saying it's an "ecosystem that is totally corrupt" in a live panel discussion at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week.
In a direct attack on Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, Roubini said that he doesn't know why the crypto mogul has been allowed to live and operate in the UAE.
He noted that Zhao's cryptocurrency exchange has been banned in the U.K. by British Regulators, and is now under investigation by U.S. officials for processing nearly $8 billion in funds from Iran, skirting U.S. sanctions that have been in place since 2018.
"He is a walking time bomb and he should be kicked out of this country and not be allowed to operate," he said.
The harsh comments about the crypto economy come as Roubini issues a stark warning for the global economy, saying that it is headed towards a decade-long stagflationary debt crisis.
"When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades," Roubini wrote in a recent commentary for Project Syndicate.
"If we don't stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s," he said.
"Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage," he wrote.
Startin' the week off slow.....Or ARE we ?
Are gonna hafta determine whether Bitcoin Double Bottoms
Risk-ON or OFF
Low now 15,893
HK 18,000 - Under macroscope.......
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=hangseng&x=57&y=13&time=100&startdate=8%2F24%2F2020&enddate=11%2F18%2F2022&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9
Maps unlike no other.
With......Futures minus 10
A sinister fat finger.
At........HUI 200
.
.
Bailing out the world's asset class?-
Beijing Pivots: China Issues Sweeping Property "Rescue Package" To Kickstart Economy
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-pivots-china-issues-sweeping-property-rescue-package-kickstart-economy
My Comment: Sounds like it only buys more time before the collapse
Excerpt:
Still, Bloomberg cautions that the financial backstop is dwarfed by the looming debt maturities facing developers. China’s property sector has at least $292 billion of onshore and offshore borrowings coming due through the end of 2023. That includes $53.7 billion in borrowings this year, followed by $72.3 billion of maturities in the first quarter of next year.
So while Beijing's move is welcome, much more will be needed to convince markets that systemic risk has been mitigated: “China developers are facing another peak in debt maturity next year, if regulators don’t make adjustments for property-related policies, developer liquidity will continue to deteriorate,” said Shen. “This will very likely trigger systemic financial risk.”
The FTX Saga-
FTX Held Just $900MM In Liquid Assets Vs $9BN In Liabilities As Video Emerges Conf irming Alameda Knew It Was Pilfering Client Funds
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ftx-held-just-900mm-liquid-assets-vs-9bn-liabilities-video-emerges-confirming-alameda-knew
My Comment: It's now being said that SBF is on a plane to Argentina to avoid extradition. FTX investors will get nothing. How would anyone trust cryptos now? FTX's $32Billion market cap reduced to zero overnight!!
FTX was valued at $32 billion in 1Q22. Now the value is likely zero as restructuring specialist John J. Ray III, who handled Enron's liquidation, has been hired to oversee the bankruptcy.
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