The New CS Board

[jumanji0881]

Russia's new gold exchange could challenge LBMA and reveal gold's 'fair' price - Matthew Piepenburg
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-09-20/Russia-s-new-gold-exchange-could-challenge-LBMA-and-reveal-gold-s-fair-price-Matthew-Piepenburg.html

[baja6string]

On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators turned sharply bearish (20-bear and 2-bull). These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. Here are the Bear signs:
-13 Sept was a bearish, >90%-down-volume day.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 30 Aug.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 22 Aug.
-26 Aug was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both below the 20-dEMA. (The 5-day is below the 10-day so short-term momentum is bearish too.)
-There have been 8 Distribution Days over the last 4 weeks.
-VIX is rising quickly.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator is negative.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator warned on 13 September and remains in effect for 6 days.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is falling.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is down.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are under-performing the S&P 500 and falling sharply so I’ll call it bearish.
-S&P 500 is sharply underperforming the Utilities (XLU).
Looks like more downside ahead.

[jumanji0881]

London Silver Inventories Continue to Plummet as Metal Exits LBMA Vaults (bullionstar.com)

My Comment: The days of Silver price manipulation via paper Silver are numbered.

Excerpts:
With consistent silver outflows over the last 9 months to the end of August 2022, the LBMA silver vaults have now lost a whopping 254.5 million ozs (7915 tonnes) of silver since the end of November 2021. In other words, from a situation where the LBMA silver inventories had been 36,421 tonnes at the end of November 2021, they are now 21.7% lower at 28,506 tonnes.

To put all of this into context, the that world annual silver mining production will only be 843.2 million ozs this year. That’s 26,262 tonnes. So the LBMA vaults, with 28,506 tonnes as of the end of August 2022, now hold just less than one year’s mine supply of silver.


But that is actually only half the story, because as readers of these pages will know, a majority of the silver within the LBMA vaults is held by Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and is already accounted for, and is therefore not (unless it is sold out of ETFs) available to the market. Additionally, this silver in ETFs is not, as the LBMA disingenuously claims, available to “underpin the physical OTC market."

Backing this ETF silver out of the headline figure is thus even more revealing. According to the calculations of GoldCharts’R’Us, as of the end of August there were 18,110 tonnes of silver held by silver-backed ETFs which store their silver in London. This means that of the 28,506 tonnes of silver that the LBMA claims to be held in its London vaults, 63.5% of this is held in ETFs, and only 10,396 tonnes (36.4%) is not held by ETFs. This 10,396 tonnes also represents only about 40% of annual silver mining supply.

Over on COMEX in New York, the silver situation is also precarious, with ‘Registered’ in the COMEX approved warehouses practically in freefall, and at a four and a half low. See the following chart. Latest figures for 9 September show that registered inventories (those that are warranted and available to back COMEX silver futures contract delivery) are now only 46 million ozs (1430 tonnes). This is insanely low. For example, more silver left the LBMA vaults during July 2022 (1447 tonnes) than there is currently in COMEX registered silver stockpiles.

Regarding the COMEX category of ‘Eligible’ silver (which merely represents silver stored in the COMEX approved vaults which could be traded if it was put under warrant, but which realistically may have nothing to do with COMEX trading), the amount of silver in the COMEX eligible category hasn’t really fluctuated much so far in 2022 and has ebbed and flowed by about 30 million ozs (930 tonnes) within the 250-280 million ozs range


The existence of ETF silver in London is key to the ability of the LBMA bullion banks to control the market and the silver price.

LBMA bullion banks / ETF Authorised Participants appear to use London silver ETFs as a top up fund for physical silver, scaring the market by bringing the paper silver price lower and flushing out / triggering institutions and retail to sell ETF units, at which point the bullion banks pick up and convert these units, thereby obtaining extra metal that’s needed to meet physical demand. In fact, as physical silver demand rises, bullion banks will try to get the price lower so as to have access to the silver that is held by the ETFs.


Only time will tell, but with physical silver demand firing on all cylinders and massive amounts of silver leaving the LBMA London vaults, the bullion bank tactics of rinse and repeat in creating a ‘paper’ silver price unconnected to physical demand and supply is becoming more and more exposed.

[baja6string]

My Friday rundown of indicators improved (12-bear and 10-bull), but remains leaning bearish. Here are the bearish ones:

BEAR SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 30 Aug.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 22 Aug.
-26 Aug was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both below the 20-dEMA. (The 5-day is below the 10-day so short-term momentum is bearish too.)
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are out-performing the S&P 500, but falling sharply so I’ll call it bearish.
-There have been 6 Distribution Days over the last 3 weeks.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is down.
-S&P 500 is underperforming the Utilities (XLU).
-Only 39% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.

I have short positions in SH and SDS.

[jumanji0881]

Global debt -
This is an excerpt from Doug Noland at http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/09/weekly-commentary-super-credit-bubble.html
I’ll refer to data from the IIF’s May Global Debt Monitor: “Total global debt rose by $3.3 trillion in Q1 2022 to a new record of over $305 trillion – mostly due to the U.S. and China.” Comparing Q1 2022 to pre-Covid Q3 2019 (10 quarters), total global debt surged $52.9 TN, or 20.9%. Over this period, emerging market (EM) debt expanded $26.2 TN, or 36.1%, led by a 47% surge in EM government debt and a 32.6% increase in EM non-financial corporate debt.

Additional detail behind the ongoing historic expansion of U.S. and Chinese Super Credit Bubbles:

U.S. Non-Financial Debt (NFD) growth averaged $530 billion during the nineties. This annual average inflated to $1.892 TN for the mortgage finance Bubble period 2000-2007, with a 2004 peak of $2.90 TN. Pandemic year 2020 saw NFD growth spike to $6.752 TN, with last year’s expansion slowing to a still enormous $3.797 TN. NFD then expanded a nominal $1.659 TN during 2022’s first quarter, a blistering 10.2% growth rate. Household Mortgage borrowings expanded at the fastest pace (8.62%) since 2006, while Consumer Credit (non-mortgage) grew at the strongest rate (8.73%) since 2001.

China’s metric for system Credit - Aggregate Financing – expanded $5.1 TN over the past year (through July). While Credit growth slowed slightly from 2020’s historic deluge ($5.2 TN), it still dwarfs 2019’s $3.8 TN and 2018’s $3.3 TN. As a macro analyst of Credit, it is both remarkable and ominous that China confronts such instability even in the face of ongoing massive Credit inflation. Understandably, Beijing is reluctant to push system Credit to only more perilous extremes

[jumanji0881]

Charlie Munger Predicts a Horrible Economic Crisis Where EVERYTHING WILL COLLAPSE
https://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/uncategorized/charlie-munger-predicts-a-horrible-economic-crisis-where-everything-will-collapse/

My Comment: What's gold's role? Wealth preservation?

Excerpt:
Charlie Munger warns about the biggest inflationary bubble in world history bursting and shares his thoughts on how it is going to unfold. Charlie says that we’re flirting with serious trouble and the consequences may be worse than what Paul Volcker was dealing with in the 1970s.

[jumanji0881]

Where's J.P.Morgan to crush the POD? -

My Comment: The POG is up this AM with a large $16 differential between the bid and the ask. It's time for JP Morgan to sell a lot of paper gold to suppress the POG.

[jumanji0881]

"The Biggest News By Far Out Of Jackson Hole Was Coming Out Of The ECB NOT The Fed"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biggest-news-far-out-jackson-hole-was-coming-out-ecb-not-fed

Excerpts:
”It was the ECB QT piece came out in the afternoon, and the ECB officials Holzmann and Knot confirming the morning leak from Reuters when they said Friday afternoon that 75bp should be considered at the Sept meeting that fueled the ECB angst in equities. It is clear now - on September 8th the ECB is going to hike and signal QT at the same time Italy is having elections a few weeks later - is just a very bad idea. I think people finally starting to pay attention to energy crisis in Europe and how the ECB needs to fight the resulting inflation with tools that do nothing to help the underlying problem (no more gas). This speaks to near term Euro strength vs. USD.”

For most of the last 10 days, even with the much talked up “China economic slowdown” and a surge in recession certainty in Europe – global bond yields kept moving higher. In just a few weeks, Italian 10s marched from 296 to 370bps.

Sovereign credit risk is on the rise in Europe – we have the ECB on September 8, the Fed on the 21st, and the all-important Italian elections on the 25th. The ECB has yet to pick its poison:

On August 11th - we distributed our largest – take down risk – “high conviction” trade alert sell since February of 2020, eleven positions with new shorts on the Nasdaq. U.S. equities have been priced for an American economy on Mars or Venus, NOT Earth. Into this mess - we have a Fed that is expected to do $1T of QT over the next 12 months, NO way. Bullish gold.

Bottom line: Near term inflation expectations are coming down with economic risks on the rise and a still hawkish Powell. The Fed is talking a tough game but risks a Lehman like event in Europe. Our highest conviction call looking out 6-9 months – is long the gold miners - GDX names GOLD, NEM, AEM.

[jumanji0881]

I know we have inflation, but honestly -

My Comment: I've been buying inflation hedges for over 50 years as a hobby (not for the appreciation in value). It has turned out to be a good investment (;50's-'60's European sports cars, art (especially Western Art), antiques of all kinds). And people are paying high prices now but is a Mickey Mantle BB card really worth $12.6Million? Why is gold not responding?

Sale Of Mickey Mantle Card Breaks All Records For Sports Memorabilia
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/sale-mickey-mantle-card-breaks-all-records-sports-memorabilia
Excerpts:
A mint condition Mickey Mantle baseball card sold for $12.6 million Sunday - making it the most expensive piece of sports memorabilia in history.

The 1952 card is widely regarded as one of just a handful of near-perfect cards of the baseball legend. It was bought in 1991 for $50,000 by New Jersey waste management entrepreneur, Anthony Giordano, at a New York City show.

Ivy said savvy investors saw inflation coming down the road — as it has. As a result, sports memorabilia became an alternative to traditional Wall Street investments or real estate — particularly among members of Generation X and older millennials. -AP

Prior to the pandemic, the sports memorabilia market was estimated at just $5.4 billion - according to a 2018 comment by David Yoken, founder of Collectable.com

Just three years later, that market is estimated to be at $26 billion according to research firm Market Decipher, which thinks it will grow to $227 billion within the next decade.

[jumanji0881]

Water Crisis -

China’s Growing Water Crisis
A Chinese Drought Would Be a Global Catastrophe
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-growing-water-crisis

My Comment: This is becoming serious and it's a global problem with no viable solution as drought conditions worsen in the US, China, and Europe. It has major economic implications.

Excerpt:
China is on the brink of a water catastrophe. A multiyear drought could push the country into an outright water crisis. Such an outcome would not only have a significant effect on China’s grain and electricity production; it could also induce global food and industrial materials shortages on a far greater scale than those wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Given the country’s overriding importance to the global economy, potential water-driven disruptions beginning in China would rapidly reverberate through food, energy, and materials markets around the world and create economic and political turbulence for years to come.

[jumanji0881]

Obama's Chief Economic Advisor Blasts Biden's "Reckless" Student Debt Bailout
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/obamas-chief-economic-advisor-blasts-bidens-reckless-student-debt-bailout

My Comment:
So much for Biden's deficit reduction, if there ever was one. Biden keeps finding new ways to spend more money. At some point the national debt will really matter. Also, unlimited government spending means more inflation (and higher rates from the Fed).

Excerpts:
Pouring roughly half trillion dollars of gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning is reckless. Doing it while going well beyond one campaign promise ($10K of student loan relief) and breaking another (all proposals paid for) is even worse.

The White House fact sheet has sympathetic examples about a construction worker making $38K and a married nurse making $77,000 a year.

But then why design a policy that would provide up to $40,000 to a married couple making $249,000? Why include law and business school students?

[jumanji0881]

The Fed Can't Stop Supply-Side Inflation
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-cant-stop-supply-side-inflation

My Comment: The Fed has wrecked the economy and it's too late to fix it.

Excerpt:
The Fed and other central banks have zero control of supply-driven inflation, period. Trying to crush inflation by crushing demand won't fix inflation because the source is supply, not demand.

[baja6string]

Crypto currencies were down around 10% Friday. I think this is an indicator for the stock market - it looks like risk-off for now. Carter Worth, Worth Charting, was on CNBC, yesterday. He had a research note out that said “Sell Apple.” Apple is a bell-weather for the markets (it’s around 7 or 8% of the S&P 500). If Carter is correct, the markets as a whole are likely to fall along with Apple. Worth had another note out Friday that said the S&P 500 could drop to 3330 if it doesn’t break above its trend line. Here’s the piece in Forbes...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2022/08/18/technical-analyst-says-sp-500-rally-could-run-out-of-steam-and-fall-almost-1000-points-to-3330/?sh=42f5b750de60

We still see breadth signals warning of a top: the 100-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE remains below 50% and is now starting to slide down. If that trend continues, it will confirm the end of the rally.

[Oddlot]

$SPX MA200 did not give the same signal as MA216. Slope of MA200 remained negative, while MA216 flipped up for 3-4 days and then reversed. Bear Mkt Rally scenario continues, but may be ending. 36day cycle is due for low Labor Day, and we are entering week6 if 10/21/43 week cycles which will lead to the 6.5yr low.

[getmenews]

As they say in China, you better be able to make it! Therefore, what does a scam look like coming out of Las Vegas over and over?

HMM

[jumanji0881]

The only solution is for the Fed to keep raising rates to combat the inflation due to climate change, the war in Ukraine, Chinese Covid lockdowns, supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages, and excessive government spending. And don't forget to raise taxes.

[jumanji0881]

If there's no water and no energy, it's going to get ugly indeed -

My Comment: And we have not yet had hurricanes in the Gulf which could impair refiners.

Venezuela Stops Oil Shipments To Europe As Alternatives To Russian Energy Dry Up
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/venezuela-stops-oil-shipments-europe-alternatives-russian-energy-dry
Excerpts:
The writing is on the wall for Europe in terms of this coming winter – It's going to get ugly.

If this occurs and no regular sources of energy can be found to fill the void left by Russian sanctions, prices will rise precipitously in the EU. Not only that, but with European countries buying up energy supplies wherever they can find them, available sources will also shrink for every other nation including the US. Get ready for oil and energy prices to spike once again as winter's chill returns.


Drought Is Driving European Energy Markets Toward Disaster
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/drought-driving-european-energy-markets-toward-disaster
Excerpt:
The EC had set a target of 80 percent for storage fill rates by October 1. Member-states are on track to hit this target ahead of schedule, but this has come at a cost: the EU's gas bill this year is ten times higher than it normally is, at over $51 billion

[jumanji0881]

Feds Cut Water Deliveries To Arizona And Nevada, May Impact Food Production
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/feds-cut-water-deliveries-arizona-and-nevada-may-impact-food-production

My Comment: These restrictions mean less produce such as lettuce. Livestock and cotton are also reduced. So, the Fed will have to raise rates even more to control food inflation (ridiculous).

Excerpt:
The reductions could be the beginning of a water crisis for the 40 million Americans in seven states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, California, and Nevada) that heavily rely on the river for freshwater and power.

The move comes as the western US faces the worst megadrought in 1,200 years that has decreased levels in Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the US, to lows not seen in eight decades.

Lake Powell, meanwhile, could face hydropower production disruptions as soon as next year, The Guardian said.

[jumanji0881]

"Mood No Longer Apocalyptic": Wall Street's Most Accurate Strategist Says Start Shorting S&P Now
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-no-longer-apocalyptic-wall-streets-most-accurate-strategist-says-start-shorting-sp-now

My Comment: I don't think the water crisis will affect stocks anytime soon, but it is becoming a major problem globally and it keeps getting worse.

Excerpt:
Hartnett remains a patient bear, and says he "would fade SPX >4328 as rates up-profits down our base case." Coming from the guy who just happens to be Wall Street's most accurate analyst and exactly one month ago correctly predicted "sentiment says stocks/credit rally in coming weeks" we would listen to what he has to say.

[Oddlot]

$SPX $SPY the classic Hurst tool is that a reversal in slope of a halfwave MA occurs halfway in the total move of the full wave cycle. The 40week cycle is commonly acknowledged; I use 216 days, and the slope of MA108 flipped at 4250. Obj: new highs???

[jonnytrade]

Another slap on the wrist .
What can we expect when nothing ever changes .
I certainly hope we get clarity and the fundamentals take over and gold breaks out.

[Oddlot]

I still believe the bear rally scenario and will not be buying anything at this time. Fib retracement point near 4350 may be the end.

[Oddlot]

Thanks for the many detailed articles which you post/link.

[jumanji0881]

How does it all end? -

It's Game-Over For The Fed - Expect A Monetary "Rug Pull" Soon...
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/its-game-over-fed-expect-monetary-rug-pull-soon

My Comment: I'm expecting the national debt to reach $40Trillion by 2026. The debt cannot increase indefinitely. There will be serious consequences. At some point I expect rates to rise due to the risk of holding US debt. So, how does this unsustainable debt increase end? Does the US$ drop in response to the debt? And Biden claims to have educed the current deficit by $1.75Trillion (I just don't believe that). Biden keeps finding new ways to spend more money and increase the deficit. Got Gold?

Excerpt:
The Fed Has a Serious Problem This Time
The amount of federal debt is so extreme that even a return of interest rates to their historical average would mean paying an interest expense that would consume more than half of tax revenues. Interest expense would eclipse Social Security and defense spending and become the largest item in the federal budget.

Further, with price increases soaring to 40-year highs, a return to the historical average interest rate will not be enough to reign in inflation—not even close. A drastic rise in interest rates is needed—perhaps to 10% or higher. If that happened, it would mean that the US government is paying more for the interest expense than it takes in from taxes.

In short, the Federal Reserve is trapped.

[jumanji0881]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry issues a grim warning about runaway consumer debt - and says the stock-market rally won't last
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/big-short-investor-michael-burry-issues-a-grim-warning-about-runaway-consumer-debt-and-says-the-stock-market-rally-won-t-last/ar-AA10AIRR?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=54d29d2068f84a1db8d698afb968409a

My Comment: It's all about the debt

Excerpt:
Burry noted in May that American consumers - faced with surging food, fuel, and housing costs - were putting away less of their incomes, racking up credit-card debt, and poised to virtually exhaust their savings by the end of this year.

He predicted consumer spending would drop as a result, and retailers would cut prices to get rid of their bloated inventories, curbing inflation and heaping pressure on corporate earnings and economic growth by Christmas.

[jumanji0881]

JPMorgan Precious-Metal Traders Found Guilty Of Spoofing, Had 'Power To Manipulate The Global Price Of Gold'
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/jpmorgan-precious-metal-traders-found-guilty-spoofing-had-power-manipulate-global-price

My Comment: Will anything really change? They usually get modest fines and continue with business as usual

Excerpt:
With Wednesday’s verdict, the Justice Department has secured convictions of 10 former traders at Wall Street financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch & Co., Deutsche Bank AG, The Bank of Nova Scotia, and Morgan Stanley, Assistant Attorney General Kenneth A. Polite Jr. said in a statement.

[Oddlot]

$SDS $SPX stopped out of SDS at 39.75. Will look for undervaluation on initial pullbacks. It is what it is...

[jumanji0881]

Hackers steal $611,500 worth of user’s funds by hijacking the Curve Finance homepage
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-08-10/Hackers-steal-611-500-worth-of-user-s-funds-by-hijacking-the-Curve-Finance-homepage.html

Excerpt:
On Tuesday the popular decentralized stablecoin exchange fell victim to a domain name system (DNS) hijack in which hackers briefly took control of the project's homepage.

[nowwhat2]

People must be blind or sumpthin'.....

Or perhaps they just can not read charts ?.....I dunno.

Thing is just itchin' to bust up out of 24,000 now ;




Which I personally I can't fathom ocurring however (what with SO many not even (yet) understanding how to acquire it)


But whatever, it is what it is ; a future rocket......


According to Basic T.A.


True or false ?



.

[jumanji0881]

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini warns the era of stagflation is here and central banks are setting a trap in trying to normalize policy
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-warns-the-era-of-stagflation-is-here-and-central-banks-are-setting-a-trap-in-trying-to-normalize-policy/ar-AA10tXlJ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4c915ad46d16408f9859d9e77570d0be

My Comment: Got Gold?

Excerpts:
"The world economy is undergoing a radical regime shift," he said in an op-ed for Project Syndicate on Tuesday, declaring the end of the Great Moderation, during which economies enjoyed low inflation, high growth, and mild recessions.

Those qualities have been the standard for the past few decades, but are reversing into what Roubini dubs as the Great Stagflation: an era of high inflation, low growth, high debt, and the potential for severe recessions.

Global economies carry larger debt ratios than before, setting up central banks for potential failure, Roubini said.

"Central banks are thus locked in a 'debt trap': any attempt to normalize monetary policy will cause debt-servicing burdens to spike, leading to massive insolvencies, cascading financial crises, and fallout in the real economy," he said.

In recent op-eds, he's added that stocks could plunge as much as 50% and predictions of a mild recession were simply "delusional."

For the new economic era, his message for investors is similarly bleak:

"During the Great Stagflation, both components of any traditional asset portfolio — long-term bonds and US and global equities — will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses," Roubini said Tuesday.

[Oddlot]

$SPX $SDS holding 2units SDS avg 42.36. Add 1unit for today on buy stop at 42.57, risking to 41.87.
The CCI for 216day cycle has given sell signal, this is week 10 from last high, and will be breaking 9day channel if buy stop is hit.

[jumanji0881]

The IRA is supposed to reduce the deficit by $200Billion over 10 years. I'll believe it when I see it. Even so, $20Billion annual deficit reduction would be a rounding error in a $2Trillion deficit.

[nowwhat2]

I dunno but.....
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169620983


.

[jumanji0881]

What's driving gold higher today? -

Could it be the $750Billion IRA spending package which adds more to the deficit?

[jonnytrade]

Yes very important chart in the eyes of all coin holders note no bag holder .
It has been replaced by coin holder ..........lol painful stuff .
I wonder how long it will take to recoup the losses ....................

[nowwhat2]

THE MOST IMPORTANT CHART IN THE HISTORY OF FINANCIAL MARKETS.....






2 wks later.....

S&P Futures Up 67








































.https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169609443



.

[Oddlot]

$SPX $SDS holding 2 units SDS avg 42.36. The 10wk high in SPX is elusive and the 10wk channel is only slightly higher. Placing stop on SDS at 39.85 and will live to short another day.

[jumanji0881]

Lake Mead is close to a dead pool in which no water will flow through the dam. The water level keeps dropping

Shrinking Lake Mead reveals bodies and boats
https://earthsky.org/earth/lake-mead-shrinking-reveals-bodies-boats/
Excerpt:
Lake Mead’s water level has dropped more than 170 feet (52 meters) since 1983, the year the Colorado River flooded Hoover Dam’s spillways. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet (272.8 meters) – about 150 feet (45 meters) lower than where it is now – Lake Mead would reach what’s called dead-pool level. Dead pool is when water in a reservoir drops so low that it can’t flow downstream from the dam. If Lake Mead were to reach dead pool – a possibility that scientists say is several years away – there would be dire consequences for the millions of people who rely on the reservoir for drinking water and irrigation.

[jumanji0881]

Hang onto your wallet -
Another setback for Solana as users lose $8 million in assets following the latest exploit
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-08-03/Another-setback-for-Solana-as-users-lose-8-million-in-assets-following-the-latest-exploit.html

Excerpt:
The beleaguered cryptocurrency market is facing another test of resilience after a new exploit on the Solana blockchain has seen more than $8 million in funds drained from users' wallets in the last two days.

Beginning late Tuesday, the exploit mainly targeted the Phantom and Slope wallets, two of the popular hot wallet options in the Solana ecosystem.

According to the Twitter account Solana Status, which has been providing updates on the situation, "approximately 7,767 wallets" have been drained by the attack and should now be considered "compromised, and abandoned."

[nowwhat2]

NQH20

The cost of covering 1 acre of land (in California) with one foot of water





Go ! Stocks Go !.....
Go ! Stocks Go !.....



Go ! Stocks Go !.....
Go ! Stocks Go !.....



.





.

[sharpshorts]

DOW 30 futures continuous contract...YTD, Weekly, Monthly

A doubling since the 2020 election...2 more years to go.

[nowwhat2]

Good point. .......May be.

[Oddlot]

Initiated new short via SDS at 42.20 with stop 41.35. Assuming 10wk high is near and bear trend will resume.

[jumanji0881]

White House Says Russia Made 'Bad Faith, Non-Serious' Prisoner Swap Proposal
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-says-russia-made-bad-faith-non-serious-prisoner-swap-proposal

My Comment: Griner should have known that having cannabis was illegal. I think she should bear the consequences. Otherwise, the US will be in a position of bargaining for every US citizen in Russian prisons which only encourages Russia to make more arrests. Being too greedy (getting 4xWNBA salary to play in Russia) can get you in trouble.

Excerpts:
Russia wants a convicted murderer to be included in US prisoner swap that would see 'Merchant of Death' Viktor Bout traded for Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan.

Russian officials requested for a convicted murder and Kremlin spy Vadim Krasikov (pictured) to be released

[jumanji0881]

"This Is Only The Start" Bill Holter Warns 'Whole World Is A Banana Republic'
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/only-start-bill-holter-warns-whole-world-banana-republic

My Comment: Of course, this guy has a vested interest, but IT REALLY IS ALL ABOUT THE DEBT.

Excerpts:
If you add up all the global GDP’s, we are roughly $100 trillion. The problem is there is well over $350 trillion in debt worldwide...When I graduated college... anything above 100% debt to GDP was considered a banana republic. Look where we are today. Globally, it’s 350% debt to GDP.

“We have had free and carefree times for the last 40 years. Now, you are going to see the reverse. Debt is a two-edge sword, and after 40 years, we are going to see the dangerous side of the sword... There is going to be starvation. This is going to be unlike anything...anyone has even written about from a fictional basis. . . .

[jumanji0881]

Emerging Markets -

"If The Fed Marches On, They're Creating Another Lehman Situation", Larry McDonald Warns Powell Is "Pumping A False Narrative"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-fed-marches-theyre-creating-another-lehman-situation-larry-mcdonald-warns

Excerpts
After the next Fed hike, the 10-year/3-month Treasury yield curve is going to be inverted. The Fed will start to cut rates next year and the real yield on bonds is going to get extremely negative, and that’s when the miners will do very well.

I like names like Hecla Mining, one of the largest silver producers. At $3.80 the stock is a screaming buy. Your downside is $3.50, and the upside is massive. Fundamentally, there’s immense demand for silver for electric vehicles and solar panels over the next decade.

The Fed has been exporting inflation all around the world into countries that can least afford it.

What do you mean by that?

The strong dollar a global wrecking ball. There are $70 trillion of GDP outside of the United States, but only $23 trillion in the US. The Fed pretends to care about inequality and all the related issues. I’m sure they do in some respect, but they are exporting inflation to places like Chile, Columbia, Panama, Sri Lanka and the other countries where we see protests in the streets. Societies are being destroyed, families crushed because they’re trying to buy essential commodities like oil, gas, food, coffee, corn which are traded in US dollars. When the Fed is promising all these rate hikes, they make the dollar stronger and commodities more expensive. It’s a colossal tax on emerging market countries. If you’re in an emerging market country, you’re getting annihilated. Your standard of living is being destroyed because the Fed is trying to fight inflation in the United States. It’s heartbreaking.

How dangerous could this situation become?

With a raging greenback, you add lighter fluid on to the credit risk fire in emerging markets. Emerging- and frontier market countries currently owe the IMF over $100bn. The strong dollar is vaporizing this capital as we speak. Based on our conversations with clients, we believe that at least five finance ministers globally have called the Fed in the last two weeks. There is so much credit risk in emerging markets, it’s like 1998 levels. In many countries, the credit spreads are through Covid levels, with places like El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan appearing particularly vulnerable. If the Fed is trying to complete their agenda, they’re risking the greatest emerging market credit crisis in thirty years.

The situation is also tense in Europe. In the market for credit default swaps, prices for hedging against the default of European banks have skyrocketed in recent weeks, particularly in the case of Credit Suisse.

The problem is the much bigger loan book of European banks as a percentage of their market cap. Now, the strong dollar is creating tremendous amounts of stress in the European financial sector, and they’re dealing with the Russian crisis as well. This creates a massive tightening of financial conditions. Hence, the credit default swaps on European banks are near or through Covid levels, and a bank like Credit Suisse is just another victim here.

[Oddlot]

$SPX $SDS liquidated SDS at 43.63. Am flat, looking for upmove for 4-6weeks, then resumption of bear mkt.

[Oddlot]

10min pnf has obj of approx 3760.

[jonnytrade]

Yes I think it is a good time for those of us that are bullish the sector.
We are long overdue a bounce .
Of course I have been bullish for quite a while.
I have not been fully invested till recently .
I do think there time to shine is coming .
The only thing that bothers me as far as miners is market risk from a broad selloff.
Yes Good luck to all

[jumanji0881]

We are entering hurricane season and given the increasing magnitude of climate change on the weather (extreme heat, forest fires, droughts), this year's hurricanes should also be much more damaging. If it impacts oil refining along the Gulf coast, gasoline prices will rebound strongly, keeping inflation high.