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King,
I am starting to believe that we are facing a failed 5 wave on the elliot.
A while ago I put up one that stated that we were somehwere on the 3rd leg of another 5 bull wave.
I looked at the RUT yesterday and saw that we double topped from Wend.
However, with the extreme bullish/bearish sediment way too bullish I think we are looking at a failed 5 because there shouldn't be many left that are actually in, so there is no more for a push.
Good read and I think the same way. I suppose that the Vix would be best as the bullish/bearish indicator and I'll monitor it. THanks.
I'm following the dollar right now. Both weekly and daily, as I think that currency moves is what is driving the markets. I found the VIX to be too late to the party. I think it all has to do with high frequency trading, but I found that the VIX moves after or exactly with the market.
The dollar's momentum is looking to turn, maybe this week or next week, but when it does commodities are going to collapse.
There are big forces at play here right now...and I think that the US FED is going to be on the losing side. Right now it seems that it is the world vs. Ben B.
buckster, this is from a poster not on Ihub, but a private board I belong to. You may already be aware of this, but I thought it was interesting.
Thanks for your reply. This is my impression of the VIX. It is another
vehicle for the Big Guys to make money when betting in the options market.
It is a vehicle for the small investor to feel like he/she has bought
insurance against a catastrophe. The Big Guys use the VIX to collect more
fees while allowing others to feel insured. However, the Big Guys play the
VIX and play us like a fiddle. That's why I monitor it. It is another
vehicle of the S&P 500, the fear index or the protection against a decline.
In my elementary world, this is what the VIX tells me and this is how I use
the VIX.
The VIX measures how many / at what price people are betting on S&P 500
stocks to go up versus down. That is important to me as a contrarian. When
people get too bullish, betting that stocks are going up, the Big Guys will
take the market down. When people are too bearish, betting that stocks are
going down, the Big Guys will move this market up. The Big Guys collect the
fees.
So don't use the VIX as an explicit indicator to follow in its direction.
You must follow it, and when it gets to an extreme condition, turn
contrarian. Those bald headed twins use it religiously. I am a believer
that the Najarians can call the market direction a month in advance. The
VIX definitely means something. That is how I interpret it.
I can say this without question about Jon Najarian, who is a VIX advocate.
On Aug 3, Jon Najarian said this market will bottom into Labor Day weekend
and move above the SPY 112 resistance level afterwards. If I had listened
to him, I would not have been in cash until much higher than 112. That was
a daily kick in pants for day after day after day as the market went up.
Use the VIX as a contrarian indicator. Decide where it should trade and
consider working in the opposite direction when it crosses too aggressively
on the WMA. I have not seen the VIX telling me where the market will go. I
see it telling me when people are too bullish / bearish, the market is about
to go in the opposite direction. I am Mr. Contrarian.
Hey Anvil...
I wanna hear more about the shareholder lawsuit against 'Jean' on the 'R' stock. Please fill me in tomorrow via PM during Happy Hour, if you can. Perhaps I can contribute?
Many thanks
Did you get in more TZA?
This market is cranking up the explosometer to start it's march to Oblivian....
What is funnier is listening to all the bulls out there crapping themselves over how this market can't fail.
All the while, insiders are selling off shares like mad.
My investing bug is taking a vacation and I miss the runs we used to have.
Just in case we both miss each other -- Have a great Thanksgiving :)
We both got deleted on that topic. I got a private message from an administrator. Did you? Can you send your email through private message?
Seems that the investment world is starting to awake to reality...lol
Down 145 on the Dow.
You are start to see the cracks in the upward motion.
This market is really struggling to stay in an upward motion.
The problem is the underlying macros can't help the market to break the previous top.
The only trade is that the FED is going to give out 500 billion to 1.5 trillion.
4% year over year PPI?
I still don't understand the CPI numbers and am going to spend today to try to figure them out, because it seems I spend a lot more for less these, even more than last year.
Apparel is down .7%....
Used cars/trucks down .7%
Medical care up .8%
Cancels the rest out at about .0%
This means that consumers aren't spending much on wants at all.
Wow, the old Qmin board still has some action on it. lol
I think we're going to be bouncing between 9000 and 11000 for a long time. It is time to go short, because this market isn't going much over 11000 any time soon. Then at 9000, ride it back up to 11000.
Hmmm.... PPI could have been the pin prick to the FED ballon?
This I believe puts doubt in the minds of the cheap dollar bulls...
I'm still looking at the Dow Chart. I see two things.
Either leg three of a bull Elliot or a double top forming.
For me it could go either way.
I'm keeping an eye on a double top in the dow.
Macro data that is getting ignored I personally believe won't push it up over the top.
I think that soon the dollar/euro is about to flip/flop.
I agree this market is propped up on bullshit, hot air, and our dollar on it's way to being the same value as the peso. I'm am sitting cash waiting for the RED to start.
With all these idiots waving the bull flag and watching a good number of bears recently turn bullish, this only tells me that the tide is about to turn. And when it does, it's going to be very violent. If I have to, I'll buy more TZA if it drops below $20.
My shorts are under water for the most part but I feel very good about them. There's nothing good out there to keep this market floating.
Crazy!
Just kidding I"m actually sitting cash waiting to SHORT IT TO THE CELLAR MYSELF :)))
I just got done reading another Claus Voit piece.
I've never seen this guy wrong yet.
I wish I would have waited, but oh well, I'm waiting for the rubber band to snap and it is going to snap hard. Home buying is crashing. Refi's are skating along the bottom.
Look at the dummies lapping up JP Morgan's BS....it is rather comical.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/european-investors-havent-been-this-bullish-in-nine-years-40368
Call me crazy but I'm still holding my shorts and just added a boatload more TZA here at $22.75
I hear you.
But it is like you are talking Chinese to these morons who triumph that taxing the rich (ahem 250k...lol) solves everything.
Short sales are the big thing here. There are still people on the struggle here. Jobs are few and far between and if we get a food/oil bout of inflation as they are forecasting you will see a bunch of people running from housing again.
I would say that now through 2011 is a good time to kick the Florida real estate tires. But I would strictly look short sale if you are serious. I've seen homes built with a pool going for 75 grand on a short.
It rarely gets about 93 degrees where I am, but it is the damned humidity.
Tampa seems to be the lighting capital of the world. March is ripe for Tornadoes, because the cold Canadian Air is much closer. You can get water funnels over the ocean in summer, but Feb-March you can easily get tornadoes.
It seems like they increase taxes on the wealthy for political reasons. It sounds so good. But when you put huge taxes on luxuary items, it affects a lot of other people. Fewer people buying them, so that cuts out jobs for all the work that goes into building them. Owners have less maintence and cleaning work done, so that cuts jobs.
I've always been torn about paying higher taxes for higher income. It sounds good, but it also seems it would be fair for everyone to pay the same percent. I can't see punishing someone for working hard. If someone is making a fortune like 10 million plus a year, like atheletes and some celebrities, then who cares. I don't.
But like self-employment tax is crazy and discourages small businesses. My transcripts are considered self-employment, and I think I pay 42 percent tax rate on that money. I should know for sure, but I don't. I just consider all the overtime I spend at night and on weekends to be almost a waste, because half of it is going to the government, and I've worked so hard on these jobs. I'm discouraged from going after the extra work.
Well, I just needed to speak my piece.
I can't believe we're going to have 83 again tomorrow. I saw a high today at 82. This is like Gulf Coast weather. But the humidity is low right now, so it's not a problem. I loved all the rain we got from that storm week before last. It filled all the ponds on the Nature Preserve here up. It looks nice again.
Yes, French is a very romantic language. It's very nice to listen to. Thanks for sharing that song. Even Spanish is nice, except they speak way too fast. I've studied a little German. Nothing poetic about that language. And Asian languages are downright brutal. LOL They're very painful to listen to.
That seems more like my summer. I am not a big fan of the 100+ thing myself.
I was in Tampa in March 2000, the afternoon thundershowers turned in to Orange County Tornados. I don't think I ever seen so much rain in a short amount of time.
Is it worth taking a look at real estate while I am there? News around here is saying many Canadians are buying up Florida properties because they are so cheap?
Looks like the average temps for Fort Lauderdale are 83 for the high and 68 for the low, but most importantly it is usually dryer and Winter is why they call this the "SUNSHINE STATE" because they change it to the afternoon thunderstorm state in summer.
Nice,
I just got my first frost last night.
It should only take a week now for all of the leaves to change... Well the ones that Hurricane Earl didn't get.
This move is all dollar dominated.
What makes this rally dangerous for long is that:
1) They have been ignoring bad news. Yesterdays rally was not about an increase in jobs, but the potential of FED money pumping
2) Jobs are not increasing. Without the US consumer, the only true world's buyer of goods and services, economic numbers are going to struggle.
3) All Fed reports have been deteriorating since the 1st quarter. The Richmond was all negatives, and while the Chicago Fed was positive the news is getting less good while we skate against the bottom of this fools rally.
4) We are in the midst of the new trade war with currency. Every Central Banks is trying to deflate each of their currency.
5) All money is being pushed into commodities, because of this it is dragging stocks with it.
My belief is that this is on the verge of cracking as even MR BS Bullard even stated on CNBS yesterday that there is no real plan of liquidity pumping and the markets have now priced in full tax cuts and 110% on money presses, and I believe that the markets are going to be extremely disappointed. HOwever, nobody will take the rhetoric off the table as they are enjoying the market melt up. If you look at the markets it is all driven by the dollar and there is no other reason. The rubber band is getting wound pretty tight.
One thing that I am also seeing is that we might be on the 3rd wave of an up elliot.
November is pretty nice yet. Probably starting to look like a Canadian Summer.
Last year was pretty cold down this way though.
True,
The VXX is getting tempting though. Any chance of 12000 on the DOW.
By the way how is mid November in Fort Lauderdale? I will be down that way for a few days.
Buy the rumor, sell the news...
The old montra lives again...;)
Keep an eye on the VXX too. It is at a 52 week low and the call options are up 1500% today.
I am trying to locate a link, it was just posted on another MB.
The fact that the FED has to continue pumping is alarming in itself.
Sniff..............SNIFF!
With all these damned bulls...the bullsh_t is starting to get mighty ripe....lol
Won't be long now!
I'm just laughing at all these morons that buy the FED liquidity pump.....
Hmmm...new week and the DOW is on it's first 100 point plunge.
Even though I was a week early it is almost laughable if it wasn't so damned predictable....
The Band/Fed induced short squeeze has come to an end....amazing it is after the end of third quarter....
Pretty good.
It really depended upon where you lived. In Port Saint Lucie, FL it ground to a halt right after Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. I had a realitor working with my wife over her family's city lot they bought in the 70's which I told her to sell immediatly when I caught wind of 200 empty new homes in PSL. We took a 3k lot and turned it into 110k. As of this summer there was still an empty house on it...
It was about about 3 weeks before Wilma hit and the realitor came to the house for my wife to sign the documents and told me that she could get 300k for it...and I said to my wife...SELL IT NOW!!!! but she cried that she loved the house...lol
Now it is barely worth 100k.....
;(
Sold mine late spring 2007. How good was that timing?
Why not? It's Octoberfest week! Drink up!
Tomorrow, a ton of economic reports is due out. Watch for a few of these to start the crash. Here's the chart that says it all. Watch for those idiots to try to blow it off and say it's just profit taking. Lots of people are about to lose their asses. But not us shorties. Man oh man... it's been a long time coming but it's going to be so worth it. Bring on the debt crisis! Cha-ching!
I still think that it's the big banks propping up the IPOs that they are releasing....
It would be comical if it wasn't so damned predictable....;)
Did you notice that CNBS and BLOOMSUCK or the Wall Street Putzes didn't even mention one thing about the Chicago and Richmond Feds economic outlooks which were basically saying that manufacturing, and jobs are going back into the toilet...
I take that back, Rick Santelli kicked it around at 4:00 PM on Tuesday.
When the markets and news outlets ignore bad news, you know that the manipulation is in full gear to get Granny noobie to buy their shares...
You are right, and they are probably trying to hold on until Oct.
Put to call ratios are increasing in dramatic fashion.
Not even...the forecast is for sun and about 88 degrees...lol
Well beer by the pool to end the 3rd quarter is all for me!!!
I remain short. The big drop is still coming. Mystery buyer will show up again on Thursday but that won't help. It's a quick fix.
LMAO.
It doesn't look like much in the way of wind for you. Lots of rain perhaps.
I love the headline to this article....
If the Recession Has Ended, Why Is the Fed So Worried?
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/if-the-recession-has-ended-why-is-the-fed-so-worried-40255
That is why I have a generator to power only both my fridges....lol
Have any of you been watching the R/S stocks on the bigger boards.
I played EEE recently and was watching PTN.
I got in EEE at 1.04 out at 1.87.
I couldn't watch PTN when it split on Monday, it opened at 1.40 yesterday and popped to 1.56, now at $1.50.
Not as big a EEE but it may come back a bit.
Looks like there are some dead cat bounce plays on the non otcbb stocks.
LOL,buy plenty of ice to keep the beer cold just incase the power goes out.
It doesn't look to bad yet. Looks to run up the coast toward VA.
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The HALL is a plain jane generic board where I post stocks based on a stocks heartbeat, a simplistic method I use. It's all based on finding a stock's bottom with an anticipated rise within a few days to a week or so. No hype necessary nor tracking of winners/losers nor fancy lines, triangles, zigzags, analysis, etc. Just the heartbeat. Stocks posted will be added/removed without notice and at my own resolve. CAUTION: Some of the picks posted may already be in play and past what I consider the buy in. Please refer to the postings to see or ask if that's the case. Also, for an easy understand training of the heartbeat, I have put up 2 sticky posts, 1 that explains the stock heartbeat and 1 that has an example. It ain't prefect but it has a high level of success. And remember, always take profit because profit is profit and will always keep you in the game. And finally, one last word of caution is to always remember that the overall market can and will void out any picks during times when the market is cycling downward.
Good luck!
The Hall Breading Ground: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=15581
Posted January 20, 2010 4:30pm
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