The ExOne Company (XONE)

[Mister Dude]

Buyout speculation starting to kick in. with only 14.4m shares xone would be pocket change to someone like HP

[Sulphur Mt.]

In XONE Long today

[Minding]

Good read Dude. Nothing there suggests a problem.

Kind regards,
Minding

[Mister Dude]

The 8k that came out states that the accounting firm resigned. This might be what spooked the herd as well as the general bubble pop in 3D stocks. Usually this is a sign of bad things to come ( accounting restatements etc) HOWEVER, anyone that actually reads the filing can see that the accounting firm was taken over by a bigger firm who has assumed the role of auditor, so it's really the same people/different name and the "resignation" of the auditor is a technicality. IF this was the only "real" news driving xone down there should be a good pop after reality sets in that there is no bad news. There's a huge % short on a tiny float. Run to $30 would take no time. Granted that's IF there is no other news pending lol

[sumotrader]

Apparently not. Took profits on half my position this morning and reloaded 18.00-18.05 but I'm still underwater at the moment.

Even with and RSI below 17 XONE can't find bid support. CRAZY.

[squashjohn]

Well plyd.. Congrats..

[sumotrader]

Couldn't resist, bought a block of 18.50's.

The relentless selling has slowed and shorts would be unwise to hold out much longer IMO.

New market cap and valuation look good at these levels, RSI is screaming for a bounce tomorrow.

[sumotrader]

Agreed, the company is not in any trouble. They are well financed thru July 2015 and when the new facility in Germany is operating at full capacity operations costs should come down significantly. The company is now well positioned for growth opportunities

Sales have been disappointing YoY but the company is executing on it's business plan.

Sumo

[sumotrader]

Short covering today is a good sign. XONE

[Minding]

I may simply be stupid ... I've proven myself in other situations ;) ... but this company is not in trouble. They are doing something very difficult, significantly modifying and implementing their strategy. I've seen no clear threat to their product/technology.

The big question is about management. Did they completely blow it? Could they have avoided being in this situation? On that point I'm not clear, but I may just give them the benefit of the doubt for perhaps two more quarters.

Kind regards,
Minding

[sumotrader]

Another UGLY day for XONE but the short covering in the last 30 minutes was encouraging.

RSI is way oversold and it's down 75% from it's 52 week high so we could see a deadcat bounce to 23.00 or so before the weekend.

IF the company can PR positive and unexpected news XONE could pop 30% overnight on short covering alone

[Minding]

Thanks ST.

No margin.

As for the price drop, I too should have aborted. But I'll live to fight another day. My portfolio on the whole is fine.

For now I am curious to see how this price drop gets explained.

Kind regards,
Minding

[sumotrader]

Hopefully you didn't buy on margin, if not and you can afford to hold for a while you'll make out just fine IMO.

I learned the hard (expensive) way to put stop limits in place, I originally thought 28.00 was bottom and would be down over $10K if I didn't protect myself and accept small losses as part of a trading strategy.

Good luck Minding, it has to bounce at some point and when shorts do cover it will move up FAST.

[Minding]

A stock doesn't drop like this without someone knowing something that most of us don't know and only find out later. I can find nothing (no surprise) yet but there's news out there.

Kind regards,
Minding

PS I'm holding, feeling silly, with expectations for the new strategy next year.

[sumotrader]

The company allows it's share price to be slaughtered day after day, there is clearly no good news on the horizon.

XONE

[sumotrader]

Found 300 shares short at 20.81 at today's open, it seems to be the only way to play this (with a stop and not holding overnight).

Buy stop set at 19.30 to cover if it pops.

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

EDIT- tightened up my buy stop to 18.80

[Minster]

Wow... Keeps diving down. I'm not that familiar with xone. Wonder why folks are shorting at this point?

[sumotrader]

I'll start buying in tomorrow if we see low 20's, I'd be very surprised if this drops below it's IPO offering price of 18.

Institutions and insiders hold roughly 50%, the other 50% are SHORT. Surely anyone selling at these levels is taking a big loss.

No sign of shorts covering but when they do.....$$$

[Minster]

Looks like a nice place to start buying?

[sumotrader]

Wow, a tight stop saved me from a $3.5K hit. Not sure why I thought this POS would bounce this morning but I'm staying away.

Looks to be heading for the teens before year end.

XONE

[sumotrader]

Got stopped out yesterday morning but looking for a re-entry in the 24's.

[sumotrader]

Grabbed a starter position here today, XONE can't stay beaten down forever.

[sumotrader]

SHORTS are just relentless here, wouldn't be surprised to see 65% short interest today.

My account just turned red on XONE but a squeeze is coming.

[sumotrader]

Damn, stopped out 28.20 but still got a nice 1.10 spread

XONE

[sumotrader]

Looking like a good day for investors and flippers today.

My stop limit is set for 28.20, hope it holds up.

[sumotrader]

The intent of my first purchase was to hold long but the trend is clearly still down and short covering provides nice pops in the PPS for quick trades. I thought 28 was bottom but I was wrong.

Triple bottom in the high 24's/low 25's looks possible but I agree this is a good longer term hold for a run back up to the low 40's or better.

Good luck cfj

[cjf913913]

Hope you made enough to cover commissions, taxes, and lunch money. I suppose you had 500,000 shares that you're flipping?

I bought in on Monday for the long haul, but I see that like the penny stocks, flippers and day traders pull the strings here, too.

[sumotrader]

Snuck out 27.42, back in 26.82 with a tight stop.

XONE

[sumotrader]

Good support in the 27.00 range, loaded 27.12 avg. expecting a nice pop tomorrow. Looks like shorts covering will continue to provide 2-3 trades per day on XONE.

[sumotrader]

Out 28.10 at the open, let's see where she settles.

[sumotrader]

Started a long position in XONE at the close. Will keep loading on down to the 24's if it drops that far.

Target is $42 six months out.

good weekend to all

[squashjohn]

Deezl: u on another world tour.. Sabbatical break from trading .. Xone has delivered below the bar once more.. U still short on X1/Sglb/Onvo/Arcam?.. & still long on DDD & SSYS/ 3 big guys in US Solar? Tsl lagging a bit but CSIQ just belted earnings out of park

[Alpha Investor]

That's a really good assessment minus 3D systems is getting hammered to. I projected pretty strong growth in industry long term and I think all hype bloated 3d printing stocks wayyy to high. I already sold off 3d systems kept ssys and xone. I mean it's already close ipo price might as well hold already had my a$$ handed to me lol.

[DrContango]

Zack's Bear of the Day:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avis-budget-group-exone-hertz-124839279.html

3D printing is a very exciting industry that is poised to drastically alter the manufacturing landscape. The technology allows for the making of three dimensional objects from a digital model or program, and it is catching-on across the country.

Publically traded companies have started to proliferate in the space, though so far they have seen mixed success from a share price performance perspective. One stock that really embodies the volatility in this space is undoubtedly the ExOne Company, a security that has taken investors on a roller coaster ride over the past 52 weeks.

XONE in Focus

ExOne is a company that manufactures and sells three dimensional printing machines and printing products in three key regions; Americas, Europe, and Asia. This Pennsylvania-based company hasn’t been publically traded for too long, but it has seen extreme volatility in its share price lately.

While it is up significantly since its debut, the stock has seen heavy selling pressure so far in 2014, including a nearly 40% loss YTD. However, XONE has been turning things around in the past month as the stock is now up over 30% in that shorter time frame.

Yet before investors get their hopes up about this stock and a potential turnaround in its shares, a closer look at recent earnings estimate revisions for XONE is warranted. Analysts have been ratcheting down their expectations for the company’s near term outlook, and this may suggest that a reversal could be at hand in this stock before too long.

XONE Estimates

Analyst expectations for both the current quarter and the current year have been falling over the past two months, and by a pretty wide margin too. The consensus estimate for XONE’s current quarter calls for a 15 cent per share loss, down from a consensus estimate of a five cent per share loss sixty days ago.

Meanwhile for the current year, estimates have also plunged over the past two months. The consensus estimate called for a loss of 18 cents a share two months ago, but today the estimate has fallen to a loss of 41 cents a share, representing a huge shift lower in a very short time frame.

If these plunging estimates weren’t enough, investors should also note that XONE has a horrendous track record when it comes to meeting expectations anyway. In fact, the company has missed estimates in three of the last four quarters including two triple digit percentage misses in a row.

With these estimates and a poor track record of meeting expectations anyway, investors shouldn’t be fooled by XONE’s recent run up. In fact, we currently have a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) assigned to this security, and thus are looking for a pull back after its recent huge move higher.

A better choice in the space?

If investors are hoping to stay in the 3D Printing industry, a look to 3D Systems could be an interesting play. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (hold), while it is currently profitable unlike XONE.

Either way, look for the 3D Printing space to remain volatile in the near term, especially as the industry goes through growing pains. XONE may find its footing eventually, but given the sliding estimates and its poor track record, it may be a stock to avoid in the near term unless you are willing to take an extremely long term view on this stock.

[squashjohn]

Let me know when ur right to short - yet again - here on X1. Up 9% on a downgrade.. Interesting

[squashjohn]

So ur still very upbeat abt ur 3D short dogs to keep on doggin'.. 1 thing tho: if DDD has a good Summer - maybe possible - isn't there a 'danger' bein short that the likes of X1/ONVO/Arcam will just get carried upwards (once again) in the 3D slipstream..? If DDD tanks to low 40's (or possibly into 30's) again would make more sense to me that the lesser-likes will follow.. U seem very bullish on DDD, maybe ur outlook is longer term (rally again later in 2014)?

[adeezl]

Yes Yes Yes - I agree completely. Solar is going to be a big player, when acceptance in the USA comes to full swing.. it's going to be a hit. Sunpower was a hauss - $3-37 in one damn year

[adeezl]

Yeah, honestly John I think it's hard to show emotion via the internet with plain text. I'm honestly not trying to piss anyone off. I'm just trying to state my case, sometimes I may come off as brash, but I assure folks i'm just being straight up like one's broker would be. (telling their clients - tread lightly as it's very volatile and speculative at this point)

[squashjohn]

How Solars lookin mate? Scty stuck around 50, fslr at 60 & spwr at 31.. All 3 prob 100+ stocks in nxt 5 yrs

[squashjohn]

Yep. Luvin ur banter on onvo also - u seem to have built a fan club there.. .. DDD will hopefully meander on up to target $65 in nxt month or two. Market still seems vulnerable at these toppy heights..

[adeezl]

You know me John, when shorty covers and grabs a position to trade for a kitty bounce, that's where I step in. XONE should be a $22-23 stock

[squashjohn]

Let us know when ur shorting here again mate.. Just seems to be moving off technicals here..

[michaelrecycler]

XONE REINVESTING MILLIONS IN RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

ExOne sold 3 enormous 3D Printing machines last quarter, costing over a million dollars each. Their current lack of profitability, is due to their wisdom, and foresight, to prepare for the future, by investing millions of dollars in research and development, which has been extremely fruitful. ExOne 3D Printers can now print using the super alloy Inconel. Wise expenditures include, acquisitions that will broaden the services the company can provide, before and after printing 3-D parts, increasing revenue 38 percent, and nearly doubling the size of its engineering staff, to promote research and development. The company had 190 full-time employees at the end of the year.

ExOne’s announcement that it now can print parts out of Inconel, a nickel-based alloy, is an extremely important development, targeted and designed for the aerospace, chemical, and energy markets. Mr. Burns (ExOne CEO) said the company's sales staff, will start marketing the material in early June, and he expects General Electric, Sikorsky, Boeing and other aerospace companies will be interested. ExOne also is developing ways to print parts from titanium, aluminum, magnesium and other materials. As a result of other wise multi million dollar investments, ExOne will expand capacity at its North Huntingdon facility this year, as well as consolidate its German operations into a larger facility. The company is expecting revenue of $55 million to $60 million in 2014, up from $39.5 million last year.

To See More Go To : http://www.michaelkegg.com/stocks/XONE

[WinnerAlright]

I see a possible double bottom here. Anybody have any thoughts on likelihood? I might buy some more if we have a few days in the green.

[adeezl]

yes these are all things I said long ago, I'm glad to have you on the short side, cheers.

[WinnerAlright]

I think the sector got ahead of itself last year in terms of share price. Hope and speculation trumped reality. I don't know if the bubble is done popping yet but I hope so. I still think ExOne is a decent mid-longer term bet though. I haven't seen anything fundamentally wrong with the company itself but I'm keeping my eyes open of course.

[Cuppy]

Thanks!

[EmpireStocks]

Lack of sales...they only sold 3 printers last quarter...they have never had a profitable quarter, and yet they're a humungous company. Tremendously inflated/overvalued.

http://seekingalpha.com/pr/9925013-the-exone-company-reports-first-quarter-2014-results

[Cuppy]

I have no position, just starting to look here...

What is the core problem - is their technology bad, or are they pricing it too low? or are they poorly managed?

[adeezl]

You are correct, $25 to come back after retail daytraders here get a hard lesson in life that scanning for dumps doesn't always pay off! Big firms are short here. I had high hopes for this ticker when it IPO'd, luckily it ran on lower volume and rode the coat tails of DDD and SSYS (companies that actually make money)