The Black Box

[dieselfuel]

xiv update;

that buy signal came on april 13. a sell signal occurred on july 21, a buy occurred on august 10. i'm currently waiting for a sell signal. this brings us up to date.

i'll try to stay current on this.

[dieselfuel]

The day is young, but XIV is working on a buy signal. A couple of days of down would be good for the markets here, imo. Maybe a 2-3% pullback...?

[dieselfuel]

We also have option expiration on Friday. An interesting week shaping up.

http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

[dieselfuel]

A few events for tomorrow that may spike up the VIX:

Theresa May giving a speech concerning Brexit

Chinese President XI speaking at Davos

Friday: Trump gets sworn in.

So, we may get a buy signal for XIV this week. The 48 area looks like a good level for a buy signal. we'll see.

[dieselfuel]

No fear in this market. $VIX continues to drop. May finally see the VIX start to rise. One of my indicators is starting to turn down, while another is still pointing up, and the main one has been pegged at the highest possible reading for three days. We'll see what this afternoon brings. Afterall, it is Friday the 13th. :>) We'll see what Monday brings, too.

[dieselfuel]

XIV: Still waiting for a buy signal. Looking to re-enter at 48.40 , or lower, whenever I get a signal.

[dieselfuel]

S&P 500 numbers by June 2024:

Low: 4363.18
Mid: 5602.58
High:7132.28

[dieselfuel]

Targets I have for the DJIA by June 2024 (7 1/2 years):

High: 63,709.48

Mid: 50,045.58

Low: 38,974.34

Very doable.

[dieselfuel]

BTW, got a sell signal on the daily chart today for XIV @ 53.67 I'll post again when I get a buy signal.

[dieselfuel]

Looking for a run to the 23,000 area on the DJIA, then a correction of 10-12%. If we blow right through 23k, then it could be off to the races and hit 40k by June of 2018.

When we hit 21k, I'll have a better idea of how the U.S. markets will behave going forward.

Remember, as the world crashes and burns, the US dollar gets stronger. And those foreign dollars will get invested in US stocks. Money flows to the strongest currency.

But again, the 23,000 area is of great importance and what happens when we get there.

STD (dieselfuel)

[dieselfuel]

Looking at the 22.47 area for a buy signal on XIV.

[dieselfuel]

Another reason the market will continue higher in the next few years:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/the-1-trillion-short-underlying-u-s-stocks-spring-awakening

Worth the read.

[dieselfuel]

Yes, more up coming. Waiting for another buy signal. would like to see more down tomorrow. Volatility got quite low in a short amount of time. It was due to rise.

Looking to fill that gap at $35.98 when I get a buy signal.

NUGT and DUST are two I watch. :>)

[Fletch]

Good sell timing........looks like a pullback now but longer term.........more up possible,
Fletch
I've traded NUGT a little of late............big swings :>)

[dieselfuel]

Sold XIV @ 26.81 pre-market this morning.

[dieselfuel]

XIV: @26.72 or above, a mild sell signal will occur. looking to sell.

[dieselfuel]

XIV: 08-21-2015 35.98 next gap to fill. :>)

[dieselfuel]

XIV 25.78 gap filled today. Sold 1/4 of my position. Still looks strong.

[dieselfuel]

Also, keep in mind, there's an open gap @ 35.98 on the daily XIV chart. Don't know if it'll fill on this go 'round, but it's an area I'm watching.

[dieselfuel]

Looking to close out a position trade in XIV. Gap at $25.75, hope it fills before I get a sell signal.

Buy signal was at $15.98 (!!!!!!). Unfortunately, I was already in @ 22 and change. :>(

[dieselfuel]

WHAT UP, BOYS!...LOL..... :>)

[Fletch]

Still in clinical trials but great trial news. Also a 4:1 split helped. Read the header stickies on the AVXLD board.
My first buy is up over 400%,
Fletch

[conelda]

wow did they find a cure?

[Fletch]

Good news treating Alzheimer's.......now at .75,
Fletch

[conelda]

Fletch- are you familiar with XON ?

[Cortisone4]

Thanks. Been playing OIL. NBR. SDRL. BBEP. Thinking about selling them again. Big gains already. Seems like oil needs a leg down. Oversuplly still very much an issue.
Bought a new one on leg down. RESN. link with SKWS

[Fletch]

A baby bio with 3 great drugs. I'm still adding more shares,
Fletch........only $4.59 as I post!
http://cellceutix.com/#sthash.Ue0hgx5S.dpbs

[Cortisone4]

Wait for oil to bottom. Should still go a lower. Commodities will be in play soon I think. Gold needs to go to the GS target of 1050.
Yes "the season" is here again.
Meli and Bidu, AAPL, ... ben in them since March 2009, but sold way to soon... aah, still hurts to look at them now...

[Fletch]

Hey Buddy,
Been in AAPL, SWIR, MELI, BIDU and a few more. RFMD is on my watch list but now so are
some real good oil companies...... A great time of year for big gains.
Happy Holiday's,
Fletch

[Cortisone4]

Like I said : SWKS AND RFMD guys. A bit overbought, but estimates going up... .

[Fletch]

A chart to look at,
Fletch

[Fletch]

DUP again.......sorry.

[Fletch]

Dup

[Fletch]

Hey Connie,
This might be a good entry point on GOOGL. Not sure if a gap up is in it. Maybe if the market wants to run way up or if good news strikes,
Fletch
PS there is a gap left behind on 10/22 at $538.77. May not fill though.

[conelda]

GOOG do u see it gapping up?

[dieselfuel]

XIV: Next target I have is 56.76

[dieselfuel]

Someday, this market will make a great short. But, now ain't the time, imo.

Maybe in Sept. of 2015....

df

[Cortisone4]

It will merge with TQNT soon. SWKS is a competitor. I'm in SWKS as well.

[Fletch]

Hey Cort,
Of the tickers you posted....RFMD looks like by far the best chart. It's now on my watch list. :>)
Thanks,
Fletch

[dieselfuel]

I'm out! Sold pre-market 35.26 :>(

df

[dieselfuel]

Got it! I'm in.

df

[dieselfuel]

Trying to buy sqqq for a little "side" trade. I want in at 35.09 or lower.

df

[Fletch]

Hi Connie,
Just keep holding it. It's been real good to me,
Fletch

[conelda]

F thanks for aapl tip -- !! regards

[Fletch]

Hey Cort,
Interesting SI still exists. I was a member and really liked it but it was not doing well and seemed to close down. Of the tickers you mentioned I'm in GILD. Also in AAPL, FB, MU, BIDU, GOOGL and a few others. I'll leave you with a chart of GILD.
GLTY,
Fletch :>)

[Cortisone4]

Hi Guys. Still lurking . This is a very good board :
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=59286

GILD, AGRX (low volume) ALNY,RFMD,ARWR.

Hope you are doing well.

[Fletch]

Good move.......hard to bet on this market going down much.
Fletch

[dieselfuel]

Fletch,

I sold SQQQ today @ 3:08:15 p.m for 35.93

We could be in for a little correction now, but I'd rather not miss the up-side in the markets.

So, now it's "wait & see" time.

df

[dieselfuel]

Actually, that trend change is on Sept. 3/4. (NOT 4/5). So, tomorrow or Thurs. could mark a high or low on the indexes. I'm leaning towards a high at this point.

However, if we sell off now through Thurs., than we could be seeing a low.

I'll take either. Doesn't matter to me. :>)


df

[dieselfuel]

I'm still holding. There's a trend change on Sept. 4/5. Don't know if this will mark a high or a low.

Would be nice to see a 20+ point drop tomorrow. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. I expect a sizable move in either direction tomorrow with a counter direction move on Tuesday after a long weekend.

FWIW,

df