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I am in the Produce Industry and But and Sell Produce. Rumor is the yield on Feed Corn is going to be surprisingly down from the heat. I missed my window on $CORN so will sit and watch now. It should go to about $22-$24 bucks this winter thought so I may enter if we get 1 more dip sub $18.00
Likewise, I do it often -- too cheap to pay the price and unwilling to chase.
For me too close to buy before the Friday report unless it really dips tomorrow.
Have no idea what the heat in the Midwest is doing to the crop, if anything.
CORN
$CORN been on a terror! I messed up and missed my sub $18's :(
Looks like a True bottom is probably in as of yesterday.
Yeah I think it's the 9th.
Isn't the next Dept of Ag crop report due Sept 9th?
I'm thinking there might be some movement into that date given it is now oversold by almost all indicators.
I'm still sitting on a lower and hopefully safe bid each day.
CORN
Might as well see if we can get $15's or $16's
Even though I think $CORN is a easy profit. I think the overall bearish market that's coming could give us a opportunity to grab 17's
I'm with you. Sitting on $18.10 hoping to snag a dip. No hurry to buy. Previously was sitting at $18.30. Glad I waited.
CORN
Getting closer to my entry point! $CORN
I am going to dip my toe in and maybe grab some calls today..
Also been bid sitting for awhile. Looks like more downside, but can't see too much more. I'm not knowledgeable about corn so merely a chart play since there is so little news.
I'm sure you've seen the SA article. If not here it is, without about a dozen charts and graphs, together with comments.:
_______________________________________________
Corn Market Is Likely To Rally
Aug. 21, 2016 7:34 AM ET|10 comments | About: Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Oleh Kombaiev Oleh KombaievFollow(212 followers)
Summary
The U.S. corn yield forecast at the level of 175.1 bushels per acre is probably too optimistic.
The incident that took place in 2010/11 reminds that substantial deterioration in conditions for corn crops is possible in the following 3 months.
The forecast indicates a high probability of drought formation in key U.S. corn producing regions.
According to current USDA forecast, the U.S. corn yield in 2016/17 will reach a record level of 175.1 bushels per acre. This factor, as I showed earlier, was the main reason for corn futures price reaching a seven-year low in the beginning of this month.
A strange thing is happening: record crop has not yet been harvested but the market has already dropped, although there's still enough time for the weather to cause corn yield reduction in the United States. In my opinion, this could potentially lead to the corn market rally in the nearest future.
The August corn yield forecast, published by the USDA, is more trustworthy, but as history shows, the situation may still change drastically.
The 2010/11 marketing year in the United States is a great example. In June that year, the USDA assessed the final U.S. harvest at the level of 163.5 bushels per acre. In August 2011, the USDA raised its corn yield forecast for 2010/11 to 165 bushels per acre. However, as a result of the prevailing dry weather in key corn growing regions at that time, the final yield fell below 153 bushels per acre, i.e. reduced by more than 7%.
Source of data: USDA
A similar scenario, in my opinion, could likely repeat in the current year.
The key corn producing regions in the United States are West/North Central Iowa and East Central Illinois. You should pay particular attention to these states, analyzing the following weather change maps.
Here is a U.S. drought map provided by the United States Drought Monitor on June 14, 2016 - the date the USDA published its first official U.S. corn yield forecast for 2016/17:
And here's a similar map from August 16 (four days after the publication of the USDA August forecast):
Note that the drought on the border of Wyoming and South Dakota has intensified and expanded. The key corn producing regions are outside the risk area so far, however, the deterioration trend exists.
The next weather forecasts also do not give grounds to believe that the situation will start to improve.
Here is the weather forecast map for the next 30 days from AccuWeather.com:
Source: AccuWeather.com
And here's the forecast until August 23 from the National Weather Service:
Source: National Weather Service
The last map clearly shows that the area of increased temperature shifts towards Iowa - the key U.S. corn producing region.
It is worth noting that the latest assessment of the corn crops condition, performed by the USDA, pointed to a decline in the proportion of crops rated "good" and "excellent". Perhaps this is the first sign of deterioration.
Source of data: USDA
Conclusion
I would like to emphasize once again that the record rates of the U.S. corn exports maintain the price stability. However, in my opinion, the market totally ignores real weather risks that have all chances to materialize.
On August 22, the USDA will publish its regular review of the condition of corn crops in the United States. In my opinion, in case if the condition of corn crops continues to deteriorate, there will be good reasons for opening a long position in this market.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in CORN over the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Comments (10) Track new comments
redbaron
Comments (925) |+ Follow |Send Message
There are several reasons the crop estimate continues to go up for this current crop year. 1) Rainfall in the major corn growing regions has been plentiful, and most of the crop is in optimal condition. 2) After the drought in 2015 that negatively affected yields, drought resistant varieties were developed, with shorter maturity times. 3) Growing conditions have been optimal, resulting in the crop maturing faster this year. Some farmers in the center of the corn belt are now reporting that the harvest will be earlier this year, with the ear drying while the stem is still green, a situation rarely seen by growers. 4) The June crop report map pictured above, shows drought area in the 3 state area of W. Central IL, SE Iowa, and NE MO, but that situation was temporary and resolved with rainfall shortly after that was published, and crops there are now superb. Generally, a bumper crop means lower prices, and that seems to be what is happening in our section of the corn belt. 5) USDA crop report maps now seem to support this view. 6) Generally, a bumper crop means lower prices, and that seems to be what is happening in our section of the corn belt. 5) USDA crop report maps now seem to support this view. 7) Not much corn grown in the drought area you note on the border of SD & Wyoming. Overall, we here in the corn belt see a larger crop and lower prices, so we disagree with the direction of your opinion. How do other growers see the situation? Our crop is already 'made', and it will be superb.
21 Aug 2016, 08:05 AM Report Abuse Reply 2 Like
dani_92_bdn
Comments (7) |+ Follow |Send Message
So maybe is good idea buy against the market? ( i dont know how to say in english when you buy a share thinking that the price will drop). Better info than a crop grower cant be given !
21 Aug 2016, 10:06 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
Oleh Kombaiev , Contributor
Comments (85) |+ Follow |Send Message
Author’s reply » Thanks. Very deeply. Let's see what is the market's next move
22 Aug 2016, 02:46 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
Faloh Investment , Contributor
Comments (160) |+ Follow |Send Message
Here you go, Dani_92_bdn. "buy CORN against the market" = "Short sell CORN; "Buy Put Option"
If this helps you, check out my articles sometime :)
22 Aug 2016, 04:23 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
TampaDirk
Comments (193) |+ Follow |Send Message
It just rained like 4 days straight from Nebraska to Minnesota and across the Midwest and the corn is already higher than my head
21 Aug 2016, 09:41 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
jacquek
Comments (2) |+ Follow |Send Message
Are you a basketball player? Iowa corn should have been 7' before the end of July - former Iowa farmgirl
21 Aug 2016, 11:54 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
faridul alam
Comments (2) |+ Follow |Send Message
Good prediction...
21 Aug 2016, 10:05 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
faridul alam
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good prediction
21 Aug 2016, 10:00 PM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
Oleh Kombaiev , Contributor
Comments (85) |+ Follow |Send Message
Author’s reply » will see
22 Aug 2016, 03:29 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
TampaDirk
Comments (193) |+ Follow |Send Message
These old time farmers got big time rich over the last few years off corn. Land is selling at crazy prices all over the Midwest, these new young farmers are trying to come in and profit also but the tides have turned and the young farmers will have to pay there dues with low prices until the next cycle which will be a long time and only a few dedicated farmers will survive and get rich like these did.
22 Aug 2016, 10:22 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
chmcnfunds
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___________________________________________
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4001070-corn-market-likely-rally
CORN
Looking for a entry on CORN hearing Yields may be overstated and way down due to the Excessive heat.
Short Stumpy Ears makes less Yield... Also looking for a entry on Calls.
Good Luck!
FWIW:
Quote:
_____________________________________________________________
COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2016/17 U.S. feed grain supplies are increased this month with
higher forecast corn, sorghum, barley, and oats production. Corn production is forecast at a
record 15.2 billion bushels, up 613 million from the July projection. The season’s first surveybased
corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is up 7.1 bushels from last month’s trendbased
projection and above the record 171.0 bushels in 2014/15. The Crop Production report
indicates that nearly all Corn Belt states, with the exception of Minnesota and South Dakota, are
forecast to have yields above a year ago. Sorghum production is forecast 55 million bushels
higher with the forecast yield 8.4 bushels per acre above last month’s projection.
WASDE-556-2
U.S. corn supplies for 2016/17 are projected at a record 16.9 billion bushels, up 1.5 billion from
the prior year with the larger crop and small increases in beginning stocks and imports. Ending
stocks for 2015/16 are raised 5 million bushels reflecting a larger import projection and offsetting
usage changes. Imports are raised as the pace of organic corn imports through June has been
above expectations. Corn use for ethanol production in 2015/16 is lowered 25 million bushels,
based on the latest indications from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. An
offsetting 25-million-bushel increase is made to corn exports supported by the recent robust pace
of shipments and sales.
Total U.S. corn use for 2016/17 is projected 300 million bushels higher at a record 14.5 billion.
Feed and residual use is raised 175 million bushels with the larger crop and lower expected
prices. Exports are projected 125 million bushels higher, reflecting the relative competitiveness
of U.S. corn on the world market and large new-crop outstanding sales. Corn ending stocks for
2016/17 are projected 328 million bushels higher and, if realized, would be the highest since
1987/88. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is
lowered 25 cents on both ends to $2.85 to $3.45 per bushel. This would be down 45 cents at the
midpoint from the $3.55 to $3.65 per bushel range now expected for 2015/16. The all barley price
is raised this month based on early indications of prices received by farmers for malting barley.
Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2016/17 are projected 5.1 million tons higher this month with a
2.3-million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 3.0-million-ton increase in production. Foreign
corn carryin is up, mostly reflecting lower 2015/16 corn feeding in Indonesia, Canada, and
Ukraine as 2015/16 corn production increases for the EU and South Africa offset a further
reduction for Brazil. Foreign corn production for 2016/17 is raised 2.1 million tons with increases
for Argentina, India, and Mexico more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Canada. Corn
area is raised in Argentina on an expected reduction in planted area for wheat and small grains.
For India, corn area is increased as favorable rainfall has boosted plantings to date as reported
in the latest government statistics. Abundant summer rainfall in Mexico boosts corn yield
prospects, but persistent dryness in Ontario reduces the outlook for production in Canada. EU
corn production is lowered mostly on reductions for Spain and France.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2016/17 is raised 8.9 million tons this month with higher
corn use in the United States accounting for half of the increase. Outside the United States, corn
feeding is raised for Mexico, India, and the EU. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction in
corn feeding for Indonesia, where government import licensing policy is expected to reduce corn
imports. Global coarse grain trade is raised reflecting increases for corn and to a lesser extent
barley. Global 2016/17 coarse grain ending stocks are projected 13.4 million tons higher
reflecting larger corn and barley stocks. Global corn stocks are projected 12.4 million tons higher
with the United States accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
___________________________________________
CORN
Sold @ $18.45 @ 11:57. MMs were taking it down.
Look to re-enter after the report.
CORN
Anyone in CORN? Big report today at noon:
__________________________________________________
Key USDA report could harvest some big surprises for commodities
Jeff Daniels | @jeffdanielsca
CNBC.com
On the eve of a key government crop report, corn futures remain at depressed levels as generally favorable crop conditions and analysts' forecasts point to potentially bin-busting harvests by American farmers.
Nonetheless, industry watchers have been trying to figure out if July's heat wave conditions may have hurt corn yields — and therefore production — since it happened when the crop was in pollination, a sensitive stage when the plant is susceptible to harsh summer weather.
The U.S. Agriculture Department will release the report Friday at noon and it could provide some answers that will move financial markets and help determine corn and soybean prices. The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, a monthly report known as WASDE, is USDA's first survey-based estimate of the U.S. corn and soybean yields for this season.
"As long as USDA doesn't give us a shockingly bearish report — i.e., they give us average yield that is well above what the trade is expecting — I do think there's a good chance that we find a low in here very soon and start to bounce back for corn and soybeans," said Ted Seifried, an analyst at the Chicago brokerage Zaner Group.
The weather bet
Some are betting the July weather opened the door to yield reductions in the corn crop, although at this point, it appears to be a modest hurt.
"Corn and soybean prices are actually implying a farm economy that may be showing signs of a bottom after marked declines the past three years," Feltl & Co. analyst Brent Rystrom said in a report earlier this month. He added that "historical analysis would suggest that excessive heat in July modestly hurt yields, especially in states like Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Nebraska."
"There's definitely room for these markets to go lower."
-Joe Lardy, Research manager, CHS Hedging
At the same time, global demand also may help support ag commodity prices, particularly for the major cash crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat. Indeed, recent export sales of U.S. soybeans to China and other locations helped provide some support for beans during August. The value of ag exports in June reached over $10 billion, and the WASDE report will provide more information on export expectations.
"We expect a bullish demand-driven market for U.S. grains and oilseeds between September 2016 and March 2017, which should facilitate a recovery in prices," Societe Generale analyst Rajesh Singla said in a note Wednesday. "However, we do not expect a runaway rally in prices, as the exports/demand-driven market is usually less exciting than the supply-driven market."
The bears' case
And yet, others counter there could be more downside in the market.
"There's definitely room for these markets to go lower," said Joe Lardy, research manager for CHS Hedging. He explained that there's a bigger threat for soybeans than corn since beans pollinate more in the middle of August. The corn crop's pollination ran into July, and while there were excessive heat conditions, he still believes the crop is in good shape.
USDA's weekly Crop Progress report released Monday showed soybean conditions were essentially unchanged week over week but corn conditions deteriorated slightly. The government estimated that 74 percent of the corn crop was "good" or "excellent," which was down from the 76 percent the prior week. At the same time, the report showed 7 percent of the corn crop was considered "poor" or "very poor," up from 6 percent in the prior week.
"WASDE data… will solidify the picture that the adverse weather bet was wrong, and North America will have large crops in corn, soybeans and wheat resulting in materially weaker commodity prices in 2017," Longbow Research analyst Eli Lustgarten said in a note Thursday.
Low crop prices, which are pinching farm incomes, have already severely cut demand for major farm machinery companies such asDeere and AGCO, both in the U.S. and abroad.
"The outlook is deteriorating for Deere and other participants in the Farm Belt, suggesting an extremely tough operating environment over the next 12 to 18 months," Lustgarten said.
Deere is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter earnings Aug. 19, and analysts have been lowering their earnings estimates for the July quarter and full fiscal year over the past 90 days, according to Thomson Reuters. Based on consensus estimates for the quarter, Deere is expected to report an EPS decline of 38 percent from a year ago on a revenue drop of 11 percent.
Main Street feeling ag woes
Disappointing farm incomes also are starting to show up in the broader economy and repayment rates on farm loans are softening, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's second-quarter survey of agricultural credit conditions released Thursday.
"Weaker farm income has continued to have an adverse effect on the District's Main Street businesses," said the Tenth Federal Reserve District, which includes a seven-state region (Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico).
"For example, at the end of July 2016, corn and soybean prices were 47 percent and 24 percent less, respectively, than the same period in 2013. Cattle and hog prices also were lower than a year ago and remained lower than in 2013," the report said.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, the benchmark corn for December was down fractionally at $3.32 a bushel on Thursday. The November soybean contract was up fractionally at $9.8625 a bushel. Corn has fallen about 23 percent in the past two months; soybeans are down 15 percent in the past two months but up 3 percent in the past week.
Sub-$3 corn possible before harvest
In the last WASDE report released July 12, the USDA lowered its 2016/2017 season price range forecast for corn to $3.10 to $3.70 a bushel from its previous estimate issued in June of $3.20 to $3.80 a bushel. That is still well below mid-June levels when December corn was around $4.48 a bushel.
"Our outlook is that prices for corn could get as low as $3 on the Chicago Board of Trade or even dip below $3 before harvest is completely done," said Sterling Liddell, a food and agribusiness analyst with Rabo AgriFinance in St. Louis.
Friday's WASDE report will include any changes in the government's price forecast for major crops. However, analysts say the corn and soybean yield per acre and production estimates will be among the most watched parts of the report.
Stack of corn
Sergio Flores | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Stack of corn
"There are analysts that are estimating 175 bushels per acre (for corn)," said Liddell. "That could have a very negative effect on prices."
USDA's last forecast was for a national corn yield of 168 bushels an acre and current consensus among analysts is for 170.6 bushels an acre. The all-time high of 171 bushels an acre was set in 2014/2015.
Citi's commodity team said in a research note Thursday that "record yields could be in play," and the firm recently lifted its own yield estimates. Citi forecasts an average corn yield of 170 bushels an acre, and the firm "sees prices trading under $4 for the next few quarters with downside potential to $3.10 to $3.20/bushel."
"We think a large harvest may extend the pressure seen in crop input industries into next year," Citi said. The most common "crop inputs" used are fertilizer, ag chemicals, seeds and equipment.
Upside for livestock producers
That said, continued low crop prices could be good news for livestock producers looking to keep feed costs down. Feed costs can run from 60 percent to 80 percent of the cost of production for poultry and pork producers.
On Monday, U.S. meat processor Tyson Foods reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates and indicated results were boosted by lower feed and livestock costs. Tyson produces beef, chicken and pork and indicated that domestic demand for protein has been strong and is expected to continue.
"If we look next year at what the forward curve in the corn and soybean markets is giving us, it looks like the next year's going to be pretty much flat to this year, so we feel good about the way next year is structured," Tyson CEO Donnie Smith said during the company's earnings call.
_________________________________________________
CORN
Don't Just Eat Corn, Trade It $CORN (Upside Alert)
Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEARCA:CORN) is the ETF that tracks the commodity CORN. This jumped on my radar on Friday because of the oversold chart put in a reversal signal known as a bottoming tail. Bottoming tails are candles on the chart that are important when they occur at multi month lows. This is the case on CORN. When this occurs, the odds heavily favor a move to the upside.
Note the chart below. Upside is likely to $21.50 in the next month or two.
Chart: https://verifiedinvesting.com/uploads/files/CORN07.25.16.JPG
The ETF for the commodity CORN put in a bottoming tail, which signals price reversal
Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Sold @ $20.50 for a few dollars profit. Got to watch it more.
CORN
Now see the issue. New to ag commodities and now see that the board closes at noon:
"Chicago Agriculture Commodities Finished Lower
By Paul Ebeling on June 30, 2016No Comment
$CORN, $WEAT, $SOYB
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Corn, Wheat and Soybean all settled lower Wednesday.
The most active Corn contract for Dec delivery fell 11.25 cents, or 2.85%, to settle at 3.83 bu."
New weather forecast showed rains will come into some Corn fields in Kansas and Missouri during the next 7 days, and agriculture analysts noted that rain forecast weighed on Corn and Soybean as it has eased the concerns about hotter and drier weather may dent the progress of those crops.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday that till the week 24 June, US production of Corn-based Ethanol production increased to was 1,003,000 BPD, higher than prior week’s 962,000. However, the stocks of Ethanol were bigger than previous week, which was rated by EIA at 21,167,000 bbl.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to release its annual acreage report and grain stock report Thursday, analysts noted Corn, Wheat and Soybean closed lower as the investors are awaiting the report for more clues.
Some analysts said that Soybean fell on expectations that USDA will estimate farmers have increased their Soybean seedings.
Technical selling before the USDA’s Thursday Key report also pressured Corn, Wheat and Soybean. According to a Chicago-based agriculture consultancy CBOT brokers estimated that funds have sold 12,000 contracts of Corn, 4200 contracts of Wheat and 3,600 contracts of Soybean before mid-day Wednesday.
In addition, some agriculture analysts attributed the declines of Wheat to ongoing Winter Wheat harvest in the US Midwest and Southern Plains.
____________________________________________
CORN
Looks like it's putting in a signature bottom pattern again, be liking for a sharp upturn going into fall
Back in CORN. I feel disruption in the Ukraine will lead to FUD and higher corn and wheat prices. Ukraine is the world's fifth largest AG producer if memory serves me correct.
Just loaded some jan exp calls here, end of season rain shortage gonna reduce yields, and corn is beat down in oversold range on the three year chart.
So what's the real story USDA? (ZCZ2) global shortage or excess. Please stick w one story
Try Landdrill. Nobody will bother us there...
Hey Disco!
GOK looks interesting!
RPT.V either!
We need a new board!
EX
Drought Stalks the Global Food Supply
Business Week
June 5th, 2012
When rain doesn’t fall in Iowa, it’s not just Des Moines that starts fretting. Food buyers from Addis Ababa to Beijing all are touched by the fate of the corn crop in the U.S., the world’s breadbasket in an era when crop shortages mean riots.
This year they have reason to be concerned. Stockpiles of corn in the U.S. tumbled 48 percent between March and June, the biggest drop since 1996, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week. And that was before drought hit the Midwest. Chicago last month saw its first 100F June day since 1988, the year parched ground caused $78 billion in crop damage. The percentage of the corn crop with top-quality ratings was 48 percent as of July 1; it was 69 percent a year ago. And with little rain in the forecast, farmers can only hope to preserve what crops they can while watching corn futures rise 33 percent since June 15, to $6.75 a bushel.
This year’s dryness is intensifying just as the plants reach their most sensitive development stage. If ample rain doesn’t fall by mid-July, U.S. farmers may face catastrophe, says Matthew Rosencrans, a National Weather Service meteorologist who specializes in drought.
Food prices actually have fallen in recent months. World nutrition costs in May were 13 percent lower than their April 2011 peak, in part because of a global grain crop that was nearly 7 percent larger than the previous year. U.S. corn acreage is at its highest since 1937, and favorable weather is boosting staple-foods production in the European Union. Ample rice supplies may also lower food-supply risks, while a potential El Niño weather pattern later this year may help northern-hemisphere crops, says Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist with the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization in Rome.
Still, a failed crop in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter of corn and wheat, would raise food costs and stifle the U.S. farm boom that has been built on growing overseas shipments. If prices keep rising, that could mean trouble elsewhere around the globe, where failed crops can mean failed states.
In 2010 a drought that withered Russia’s wheat crop sent consumer prices in North Africa and the Middle East skyward, contributing to unrest that fed the Arab Spring. More than 60 food riots occurred worldwide between 2007 and 2009, when rapidly rising commodity prices wreaked havoc on family budgets, especially in poorer countries, where 70 percent of a household’s income may go to food. An extended U.S. drought would have a “tremendous” impact on world food prices, as a higher cost for one dollar-denominated export crop cascaded into others, Abbassian says. “The world looks to the U.S. as the safest source of supply,” he says. “Everyone watches the U.S. because they can rely on it. Without it, the world would starve.”
The U.S. isn’t the only place with problems. Early-season dryness again threatens to wither Russia’s wheat, and the worst start to India’s monsoon season in three years is endangering crops, raising the specter of a return to the export restrictions in the region that drove prices up sharply five years ago.
Adding to the uncertainty are government policies that have intentionally kept world crop reserves at levels lower than they were traditionally, says David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University. Unlike the 1980s, when many governments bought up supplies during boom years to store for poor harvests, inventories are being kept intentionally leaner so farmers will be more responsive to market forces. “It’s just-in-time inventory for farming,” he says. The system works fine, adds Anderson, as long as the weather cooperates.
Increasingly, in a global food supply chain where Iowa’s weather affects India’s prices, it seems that lean inventories pose serious risks. Longer term, the solution may lie in developing alternative regional sources of food production to augment supplies when a major grower, be it the U.S., Russia, Brazil, or some other country, goes down.
President Barack Obama, in his first address on global food security last May, announced $3 billion in pledges from companies including Cargill and Syngenta (SYT), for farm development in Africa over the next decade. “Fifty years ago, Africa was an exporter of food,” Obama said. “There is no reason why Africa should not be feeding itself and exporting food again.”
Until then, the world is watching the U.S. Corn Belt. A USDA crop production estimate that considers the drought in its calculations will be released July 11. Implicit in the numbers will be the forecast for famine.
The bottom line: With U.S. stockpiles of corn down 48 percent, concerns are mounting that this year’s crop won’t meet the world’s needs.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-05/drought-stalks-the-global-food-supply
Our corn has changed drastically in the last two days-getting the grayish look in the afternoon. Lower temps in the forecast, but no precip to amount to anything. Almost too late to do much good. Went from thinking we had 225 bushel corn to now I am hoping for 130-140. This is the heart of corn country and it is moving north and east.
Will be adding on any weakness next week. Hoping for more at $43-44. If the dollar co-operates this could see $50 in a flash.
Supposedly, there is rain coming this weekend, but it's probably not going to be much.
Here in Northern IL it's pretty touch and go. Some fields look pretty good but others look terrible. You can really see the difference between the ones that were planted early and the ones that were planted late.
Regardless, I think I better start stocking up on Tostitos!
Corn looking terrible in the corn belt-I have been in agriculture my whole life and have not seen anything of this magnitude-very dry-corn burning up. No way can we produce what USDA has forcasted-going to get very interesting.
From finance.yahoo.com:
Corn prices and the related exchange traded fund are rising as the
U.S. Department of Agriculture warns crops are being damaged by the
excessive heat in key corn-growing regions.
The USDA recently reduced the “good-to-excellent” rating on crop
conditions by 4%, the largest single-week downgrade in three years, as
the hot weather scorches crops, writes Kevin Van Trump for Inside
Futures .
The USDA also reported that corn “silking” increased from 35% to 65%.
The late “silking” process will cause pollination to occur later into
the high temperature weather that is now being forecast, which would
cause further crop damage from the excessive heat.
“An increase in hot, dry weather will increase stress to the
pollinating and shallow root crops,” according to a Telvent DTN report
on Midwest corn prospects, reports Nigel Hunt for Reuters .
“I think they (prices) are bouncing off the crop condition report
which was released by USDA yesterday which confirmed the continued
deterioration of the corn and soybean crop in the U.S.,” commented
Robobank analyst Erin FitzPatrick.
Chinese demand for corn has increased the profitability for corn
growers, reports Tony C. Breibus for Bloomberg . Consequently,
Argentina and Brazil, the two large exporters of corn after the U.S,
will increase acreages of farmland dedicated to corn crops, according
to oilseeds analysts Oil World.
“An Argentine trade delegation is currently negotiating several trade
agreements with Chinese officials,” according to analysts in an Oil
World report. “In Brazil, corn plantings are likely to be expanded in
the southern and some central parts, as farmers are responding to the
improved profitability of corn production, mainly used domestically.
These dudes are smart about investing and have the right idea even
though they know nothing about weather.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/284170-corn-bulls-have-an-edge?source=yahoo
Thanks my friend.
Have fun
Hey, have fun... off to burn stuff down.
indeed it could be...
off to the coast (northern Cali) for a 4th weekend at a beach house we rent every year...
enjoy.
nice setup.
Wow, into the 200MA. This could be interesting.
Hey, more corn, more people can eat... I think that's a good thing in the world.
Corn drops hard today.
Bigger harvest = bad news for corn investors.
http://www.grabthehorns.com/2011/06/corn-commodity-drops-today/
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| The Teucrium Corn FundThe Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE: CORN) provides investors unleveraged direct exposure to corn without the need for a futures account. The Teucrium Corn Fund was also designed to reduce the effects of backwardation and contango. The investment objective of the Fund is to have the daily changes in percentage terms of the Shares' Net Asset Value ("NAV") reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of a weighted average of the closing settlement prices for three futures contracts for corn ("Corn Futures Contracts") that are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade ("CBOT"), specifically (1) the second-to-expire CBOT Corn Futures Contract, weighted 35%, (2) the third-to-expire CBOT Corn Futures Contract, weighted 30%, and (3) the CBOT Corn Futures Contract expiring in the December following the expiration month of the third- to-expire contract, weighted 35%, less the Fund's expenses. (This weighted average of the three referenced Corn Futures Contracts is referred to herein as the "Benchmark," and the three Corn Futures Contracts that at any given time make up the Benchmark are referred to herein as the "Benchmark Component Futures Contracts." Teucrium Corn Fund is a commodity pool that will issue Shares that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca. The Fund is a series of the Teucrium Commodity Trust ("Trust"), a Delaware statutory trust organized on September 11, 2009. Additional series of the Trust that will be separate commodity pools may be created in the future, but the Fund is currently the Trust's only series. The Trust and the Fund operate pursuant to the Trust's Amended and Restated Declaration of Trust and Trust Agreement (the "Trust Agreement"). The Fund was formed and is managed and controlled by the Sponsor, Teucrium Trading, LLC. The Sponsor is a limited liability company formed in Delaware on July 28, 2009, registered as a commodity pool operator ("CPO") with the CFTC and a member of the NFA. |
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