Tesoro Petroleum Inc fka TSO

[boca_bobby]

Good to have ya back ZZ,

We're killing 'em this year. Hope you get back to make'n dat green!

[zigzagman]

Nice! grub...I got post #500...lol

[zigzagman]

TSO dropped to $10.50 or so???...

Lord have Mercy!...

That was a nice Pincher Play you found there Bobby...It worked really well for a while...

BTW...I'm back in business again...I hired a nice lady to be my dad's caretaker and do some housework around here...I got totally burned out doing it all for the past two months...

[eastunder]

TSO: Q2 EPS (33c) vs 3c Beats (40c) Est

Wednesday, July 29, 2009 16:50ET

QUARTER RESULTS
Tesoro Corporation (TSO) reported Q2 results ended June 2009. Q2 Revenues were $4,181.00M; -52.95% vs yr-ago; MISSING revenue consensus by -34.74%. Q2 EPS was (33c); -1,200.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +17.50%.

Q2 RESULTS      Reported      Year-Ago     Y/Y Chg      Estimate    SURPRISE 
 ----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ---------- 
 Revenues:     $4,181.00M    $8,887.00M     -52.95%    $6,406.25M     -34.74% 
 ----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ---------- 
 EPS:               (33c)            3c  -1,200.00%         (40c)     +17.50% 
 ----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------

[eastunder]

Tesoro Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2009 Results

Wednesday, July 29, 2009 16:14ET

SAN ANTONIO, Jul 29, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO) today reported a second quarter 2009 net loss of $45 million, or $0.33 per diluted share compared to net earnings of $4 million, or $0.03 per diluted share for the second quarter of 2008. Second quarter segment operating income was $11 million versus $74 million in the second quarter of 2008. The variance was primarily due to lower gross margins and decreased throughput, partially offset by lower operating costs.

The Company's realized gross margin of $8.52 per barrel (/bbl) decreased by $1.58/bbl from a year ago, although the Tesoro Index was $3/bbl lower. The Company reduced the amount of distillate it produced as West Coast distillate margins decreased by more than $22/bbl from a year ago, while gasoline margins increased more than $2/bbl from the 2008 second quarter. Narrowing price spreads between heavy and light crudes also reduced gross margins. During the second quarter, discounts for spot California heavy crudes were down 45%, as San Joaquin Valley Heavy traded $8/bbl below Alaska North Slope (ANS) versus a discount of $15/bbl a year ago. Discounts for South American heavy crudes also weakened as Oriente crude traded $7/bbl below ANS versus $13/bbl a year ago. Heavy crudes such as these represent almost 70% of our crude slate in the California region.

Total system throughput for the second quarter was 565 thousand barrels per day (mbpd), down 7% from the 2008 second quarter as a result of a full plant turnaround at Alaska, and planned maintenance at Golden Eagle. Additionally, in this economic environment, the Company continues to monitor throughput and inventory levels to meet lower product demand.

Direct manufacturing costs before depreciation and amortization were $238 million in the second quarter versus $257 million in the first quarter 2009. The difference is primarily attributable to lower energy costs. During the quarter, spot natural gas prices averaged $4 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), a decrease of 15% from a quarter ago.

For the second quarter 2009, capital expenditures were $173 million, including turnaround spending. We expect to spend less than our announced capital budget of $600 million dollars for the full year.

"As we began 2009, we were prepared for a very difficult year, and in the second quarter it arrived," said Bruce Smith, Chairman, President and CEO. "Declining industrial production, weak distillate demand and excess inventories have crushed distillate margins. Gasoline margins, which were strong in April, weakened in the quarter and dropped to half the April levels in July. Like other refiners, the most significant impact to our second quarter results was the narrowing of the heavy crude discount which has severely reduced overall coking capacity economics. The marginal economics of these units at our California refineries materially impacted the quarter.

"The outlook for the third quarter is that we expect to continue to see difficult market conditions. In July, record product inventories and narrow heavy-light crude oil differentials continued to hamper margins. We are prepared for this environment to persist. Already, we are seeing temporary closures and units running at less than full rates at a number of refineries. We remain committed to our 2009 goals of lowering our cash break-even costs, gaining sustainable improvements in our capture of available margins and funding our capital program through operating cash flow. We believe that our markets and assets continue to hold competitive advantages, and our management team is prepared for both the political and consumer-related challenges that may lie ahead," said Smith.

Board Declares Quarterly Dividend

Tesoro announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share. The dividend is payable September 15, 2009 to shareholders of record as of September 1, 2009.

Financials continued at :

http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.db4932c8223840d84bfaa6c30c943a3862ded86f85ded6814f485fa8ad77aed1

[eastunder]

CONSENSUS ESTIMATES: TSO: To Release Q2 Results Jul 29 [AMC]

Not sure I like these.


Tuesday , July 28, 2009 13:00ET

Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) is scheduled to release its Q2 financial results on July 29, 2009, after the close of the market (AMC).

CONSENSUS ESTIMATES:

Q2 Revenue: $4719.61 million
Q2 EPS: $-0.31 per share

PREVIOUS PERIOD:

Prev Q2 Revenue: $8754.00 million
Prev Q2 EPS: $-0.28 per share

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Original Confirmation

The Company will also hold a related conference call to discuss these results.

[boca_bobby]

TSO UPDATED CHART:

WE HAVE PINCHER CONFIRMATION!

[eastunder]

Good to go Boca?

[eastunder]

Oil price settles above $61 as US supply falls
1:47 am ET 07/15/2009- Associated Press Online
Oil prices rose above $61 a barrel Wednesday, riding gains on Wall Street and a government report that said U.S. crude supplies dropped more than expected.

Benchmark crude for August delivery added $2.02 to settle at $61.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent prices rose $2.56 to $63.42 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

During the past few weeks, crude fell from its peak and has loitered near $60 a barrel as America's expanding population of unemployed workers left doubts about a quick economic recovery. A weaker dollar combined with a rally in equities markets has kept oil prices from falling further, however.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and The Nasdaq composite index rose more than 2 percent in midday trading.

Crude barrels, which are traded in dollars, go up in price as the dollar falls and foreign investors find they have more buying power. Investors also see crude as a safe haven from inflation, and they've pumped money into oil futures on the expectation that oil will get more expensive as the economy improves.

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that the country's supply of crude oil dropped more than expected last week, falling by 2.8 million barrels. However, the U.S. is still swimming in surplus oil. It's total inventory of 344.5 million barrels is 16.5 percent above last year's levels.

Inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels, such as diesel and heating oil, also rose last week.

Rising world stock markets also propped up crude prices, with major exchanges logging gains in the wake of better-than-expected earnings reports from Intel and Goldman Sachs.

Trader and analyst Stephen Schork said prices could swing either way in the next few days, setting a longer-term trend.

At the pump, retail gas prices dropped more than a penny overnight to a new national average of $2.504 per gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. A gallon of gas is 16.5 cents cheaper than a month ago and $1.605 cheaper than last year.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery jumped by 6.15 cents to settle at $1.7081 a gallon and heating oil added 7.02 cents to settle at $1.5821 a gallon. Natural gas for August delivery fell by 14.6 cents to settle at $3.283 per 1,000 cubic feet.

[ScovilleUnits]

ValuEngine Upgrades TSO And WNR To "5" Rating

Tuesday , July 14, 2009 18:09ET

Jul 14, 2009 (FinancialWire via COMTEX) -- (Comment on this article at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/07/14/valuengine-upgrades-tesoro-corporation-and-western-refining-to-5-rating/)

July 14, 2009 (FinancialWire) (Investrend Research Syndicate) -- ValuEngine, Inc. has upgraded Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) to a "5" rating, the service's highest.

The ValuEngine Rating is an overall assessment of a stock's attractiveness. It combines the following five factors: ValuEngine's proprietary valuation, risk-return tradeoff, momentum, market capitalization and ValuEngine's proprietary forecasted one-month return.

Approximately 80 to 85 companies achieve this highest ValuEngine rating out of VE's total coverage of over 5,000 publicly traded companies. These ratings are computed daily and are often discussed on financial broadcasts on General Electric (NYSE: GE) unit CNBC, Fox's (NYSE: FOX) Fox News Channel, Bloomberg TV, and AOL Time Warner (NYSE: AOL) unit CNNfn by leading market forecasters such as Richard Suttmeier.

http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.a363120eb8220f17278c8b02f256dfa4a9118ec9c54ad867f335b7cb3f2b3a07

[eastunder]

Earnings 2Q 7-28-09 AMC

Tesoro Corporation To Release Second Quarter Earnings
Press Release
Source: Tesoro Corporation

SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO - News) announced today that it will release earnings for the second quarter 2009 after the market closes on Wednesday, July 29, 2009. The Company will broadcast, live, its conference call with analysts regarding second quarter 2009 results and other business matters on Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Interested parties may listen to the live conference call over the Internet by logging on to http://www.tsocorp.com, or via phone by dialing 888-241-0558 (international dial-in: 647-427-3417), event ID 18009088. A telephone replay of the call will be available for one week, and may be accessed via phone by dialing 800-839-9871 (international replay: 402-220-4284) and entering passcode 18009088.

[zigzagman]

I don't know for sure...

But I probably traded TSO a few hundred times in a six month period...

[kittycattttt]

How many times u think u traded tso
I remember the video u made long ago on tso
400 bucks 15 min any day!

[zigzagman]

World Oil Demand to Fall More According to Reuters Poll of Analysts:

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-39322120090429?rpc=401&

[zigzagman]

The peak oil crisis: capping carbon

by Tom Whipple

Published Apr 23 2009 by Falls Church News-Press

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48739

Seventeen years after the Kyoto Protocol was drafted, it appears that the U.S. is moving toward taking action to limit the nation's emissions of greenhouse gases.

Last week, with White House blessing, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a preliminary decision that carbon-dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels constitutes a danger to the public. The ruling was in response to an April 2007 Supreme Court decision that said the government could restrict the emission of heat-trapping gases under the Clean Air Act if it found them a danger to health and welfare.

The importance of this decision cannot be overstated for, as all sides are well aware, it has the potential to lead to major changes in the amount and cost of fossil fuel energy consumed in the United States. This week, the Congress began hearings on what is certain to be a lengthy and brutal struggle between those who believe that global warming is at least partially caused by carbon emissions and those who don't. The battle lines are being drawn with climate scientists and their supporters talking of irreversible, earth-destroying "tipping points" and those opposed claiming the economy will be devastated with needless taxes and expenses.

Some are skeptical that, considering all the pressure industry lobbyists will bring to bear, meaningful legislation can be passed. There is already a movement underway to delay any new regulations until after the economy recovers. The problem, however, is that in the wake of the Supreme Court decision, the Obama administration now has the authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act without Congressional action. Given the choice between the legislative process and the Obama EPA, even the most ardent opponents of regulation would rather take their chances with the Congress where political pressures can be focused.

Another factor in the equation is the next UN climate conference that will take place in Copenhagen in December. If the world is to have any hope of convincing the Chinese that they must reduce emissions, the U.S. is going to have to show up with its own plan firmly in place.

The centerpiece of the 600-page bill the Democrats have introduced in Congress would restrict emissions by some 80 percent over the next 40 years using cap and trade for power plant and industrial emissions. Alternatives and objections to this approach are flying in all directions so it is far too early to tell what will come out of the legislative process - and when.

Our interest is just what the impact of these U.S. efforts to limit emissions will have on the peak oil crisis. The answer, of course, varies from major to minimal depending on the timing and provisions of any new regulations. For instance, any bill that does not take effect until after the current economic crisis is over, and robust economic growth resumes, would be meaningless. Similarly a bill that delays serious emission cuts for decades would be irrelevant.

There would seem to be two general approaches to cutting emissions. The simplest and cheapest would be to simply burn less fossil fuel. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy says that electric power consumption could be reduced by 20-30 percent without any serious economic consequences. Further reductions are possible, with increasing costs and pain, but not necessarily civilization-ending. The reduction should be easy to implement through a combination of public education, and "excessive consumption" taxes. New taxes, however, would provoke a major political storm, given the state of the economy. That they would be avoidable by simply reducing consumption in accordance with national goals would unfortunately carry little weight. Lower consumption, however, might turn out to be the only feasible solution if the economic situation continues to worsen.

The other general approach would be an effort to remove and sequester the carbon and other harmful gases from the emissions of industrial facilities and increase the efficiency of fossil fuel burning equipment. The big disadvantage is that the technology for carbon sequestration and some other processes is still a ways off, and is likely to be very expensive to implement.

It appears as if the balance between global oil depletion and the faltering world economy will soon be joined by emission caps as yet another factor that will determine the availability, use and price of liquid and other fossil fuels in the years ahead. At present all we know for sure is that world oil production reached a peak last summer and has been dropping ever since as economic conditions cut the demand for liquid fuels. We know that investment in exploring for oil and developing new fields has dropped substantially making it likely prices will rebound higher should there be an economic recovery in the next few years.

Some foresee an economic rebound later this year, while others say that the global economy has been so badly damaged that an economic recovery will take a long, long time and is likely to be in a form that nobody expects or recognizes.

Just how emissions caps would fit into all this is impossible to say. If the global and more particularly the U.S. economies continue to contract, there simply may not be enough money to implement very expensive carbon sequestration programs or build cleaner cars in quantity. The demand for fossil fuels could even decline precipitously with the economic situation. A future Congress could decide that rationing fossil fuel consumption is the only feasible way to reduce carbon emissions without incurring unacceptable costs.

The climate scientists tell us the world needs to make substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. Nevertheless, there is going to be heavy resistance from those who feel that restricting emissions will put them at an economic disadvantage - no matter how temporary. The pendulum is swinging, however; polling shows that some 75 percent of Americans now consider it to be a serious problem.

Over the next six months, the hearings, debates and votes in the Congress will tell us how far we have come.

[zigzagman]

Oil ends higher after home prices data; inventories rise
By Moming Zhou & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:23 p.m. EDT April 22, 2009


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures ended Wednesday's volatile trading slightly higher, as better-than-expected news on the housing front offset data that showed another buildup in U.S. crude inventories.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency index showed home prices rose in February for the second straight month. Separately, the government reported that U.S. crude inventories increased more than expected to their highest level in nearly 19 years.

Crude for June delivery rose 30 cents, or 0.6%, to end at $48.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost nearly 2% earlier in the session, falling as low as $47.70.

U.S. stocks reversed earlier gains to finish mostly lower on Wednesday, with bank shares declining amid a slew of earnings reports. Morgan Stanley (MS:morgan stanley) reported another quarterly loss and trimming its dividend.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX:S&P 500 Index) fell 6.53 points, or 0.8%, to 843.55. See Market Snapshot.

The earlier strength in U.S. equities kept "crude oil afloat," said Burton Schlichter, senior market strategist at Daniels Trading.

"However, fundamentally and technically the crude oil market is bearish," he said.

In after-hours electronic trading, June crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $48.69 a barrel on Globex.

Crude supplies rise

Crude inventories increased 3.7 million barrels to 370.6 million barrels, the highest level since September 1990, the Energy Information Administration reported. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected a buildup of 3 million barrels.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, which uses a different methodology than the EIA, reported inventories declined by 1 million barrels.

"This [government] data are too bearish for the market to ignore. If this doesn't chase the bulls back into the barn, there is little that will," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics.

The EIA, the statistics arm of the Energy Department, also reported that gasoline inventories rose 800,000 barrels and distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, rose 2.7 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decline in both gasoline and distillate inventories.

The API reported that gasoline supplies rose by 107,000 barrels and distillate stocks increased by 458,000 barrels.

The EIA report also showed that weak demand triggered the inventories buildup. Total demand for petroleum products in the past four weeks fell 6.5% from a year ago. Among them, gasoline demand fell 0.4% while distillate consumption slumped 9.4%.

U.S. refineries operated at 83.4% of their operable capacity last week, higher than a week ago but still in a low range.

In other energy trading, May reformulated gasoline fell 2.38 cents, or 1.7%, to $1.3906 a gallon and May heating oil dropped 1.79 cents, or 1.3%, to $1.3299 a gallon.

May natural gas futures gained 2.1 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.532 per million British thermal units.

The EIA will report last week's natural-gas inventories on Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Platts expect an increase of 41 billion cubic feet to 46 billion cubic feet.

Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-ends-higher-stocks-rebound/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F054E8B-E8F6-4823-A900-A44179286ED7%7D&dist=msr_3

[zigzagman]

Peak oil notes - Apr 23

by Tom Whipple

Published Apr 23 2009 by ASPO-USA

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48737

Prices and production

Oil prices remain wedded to the equity markets, plunging by $4.45 a barrel on Monday and then rebounding a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday to settle just below $49. Demand for oil continues to drop with the EIA reporting that consumption over the last four weeks is 6.5 percent lower than last year. Distillate and jet fuel demand are down nearly 10 percent. With refining and crude imports up by about 500,000 b/d last week, it is not surprising that total US petroleum inventories increased by 11.3 million barrels last week.

Brokers and speculators continue to stash crude and products away on ships anchored around the world. France’s Total oil company told Reuters that there are now about 100 million barrels stored aboard tankers.

With inventories building and oil prices slipping back towards the mid-$40s, the Iranian and Algerian oil ministers are again talking about production cuts at the next OPEC meeting.

Although Russian oil production has been slipping recently, Moscow says March production was up 0.4 percent to 9.76 million b/d. Russia’s Energy Ministry expects this increase to continue for the rest of the year with output for 2009 being up as much as 2 percent. This news is unlikely to please OPEC, who thought the Russians had agreed to start cutting production.

Mexican production in the 1st quarter was down by 8.4 percent to 2.67 million b/d. Pemex is still forecasting that production in 2009 will be 2.72 million b/d; but considering the rate at which production from Cantarell is dropping, this forecast is likely to be revised downwards several times before the year ends.

General Motors

Skepticism is increasing that GM and the government will be able to pull off a “quick rinse” bankruptcy and return to producing cars in a few weeks as a slimmed down, efficient entity. There seems to be little progress in negotiations with the bondholders, unions, dealers, and parts manufacturers. The company is out of money and can only survive on federal loans.

On Wednesday GM’s CFO announced that the company will not be paying $1 billion of bond interest due on June 1st, indicating that the company will have either converted the bonds into equity shares or will be in bankruptcy by that date. Despite the optimistic talk, many experts continue to say that it will take years to resolve the issues surrounding the bankruptcy of an organization the size and complexity of GM.

[zigzagman]

Mexico oil output falls 7.8 pct in Q1

Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:05pm IST

http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN2148560120090421

MEXICO CITY, April 21 (Reuters) - Mexican oil production fell 7.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009 to 2.667 million barrels per day as output from the aging Cantarell field slid further, state oil company Pemex on Tuesday.

Mexico pumped 2.891 million bpd of crude in the first quarter of 2008, according to the energy ministry.

Pemex said Cantarell produced 787,000 bpd in the first three months of 2009, down 34 percent from the same period in 2008 when the field yielded 1.195 million bpd.

The company has forecast oil production will be between 2.7 and 2.8 million bpd in 2009, but analysts are skeptical the company can step up output sufficiently at other fields to make up for the relentless decline of Cantarell.

Pemex officials say increased output from fields such as Chicontepec in the second half of the year will help lift average production numbers back into the targeted range.

Oil production fell at a slower rate in March than for the quarter as a whole. Mexico produced 2.652 million bpd in March, down 6.6 percent from the same month in 2008.

Cantarell, which pumped more than 2 million bpd as recently as 2004, lost its spot as Mexico's top producer in the first quarter of 2009 to the nearby Ku Maloob Zaap field. Ku Maloob Zaap yielded 797,000 bpd in the first quarter.

The drop in oil production cut oil exports by 14.7 percent to 1.279 million bpd. Mexico exported 1.499 million bpd in the first quarter of 2008, according to government data.

Gasoline imports were down 8.7 percent from the same period in 2008 to 311,400 bpd, Pemex said. (Reporting by Robert Campbell; Editing by David Gregorio)

[zigzagman]

Oil falls on bigger-than-expected inventories gain
By Moming Zhou & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:52 p.m. EDT April 15, 2009


Futures end lower as U.S. inventories rise to highest level in 18 years

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures turned lower Wednesday as government data showed U.S. crude inventories rose much more than expected last week to the highest level in more than 18 years as demand fell.

Meanwhile, mixed trading in U.S. stocks helped keep crude's losses limited, as recent oil trading became more closely in line with stock markets. See related story.

Crude inventories rose 5.6 million barrels in the week ended April 10, the Energy Information Administration reported.

Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected an increase of 2.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, total petroleum demand over the past four weeks fell by 5.2% from a year ago.

Crude for May delivery lost 16 cents, or 0.3%, to end at $49.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading remained choppy Wednesday, swinging around $50 a barrel as some buyers see $50 as an important psychological level to defend.

"The EIA reports don't get much more bearish than this," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics. "Stocks of crude, gasoline and distillates are far above the high end of the normal range and consumption is lower."
On Wall Street, Intel Corp.'s (INTC:Intel)

INTC 15.62, -0.38, -2.4%) cautious outlook pushed the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP:Nasdaq Composite Index)

5:15pm 04/15/2009

COMP 1,626.80, +1.08, +0.1%) down 1%, but the S&P 500 index (SPX:S&P 500 Index) remained higher.

"This [oil] market is looking to the stock market before it makes a move," said Phil Flynn, vice president at Alaron Trading.

Oil and stocks have moved in the same direction in 10 out of the past 13 sessions.

Inventories

At 366.7 million barrels, U.S. inventories stood at the highest level since September 1990. The EIA also reported that gasoline inventories fell by 900,000 barrels last week, as refineries reduced production, and distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.2 million barrels.

Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected declines of 960,000 barrels for gasoline and 1.5 million barrels for distillates.

U.S. refineries operated at 80.4% of their operable capacity, the EIA said, the lowest level since September 2008.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase of 6.5 million barrels in crude stockpiles for the week ended April 10. API, which uses a different methodology, also reported a decline of 613,000 barrels in gasoline stocks and an increase of 87,000 barrels in distillate supplies.

In other energy trading, May reformulated gasoline fell 0.7% to $1.4468 a gallon and May heating oil lost slightly to $1.4010 a gallon. May natural-gas futures fell 1.4% to $3.693 per million British thermal units.

The EIA is scheduled to report last week's natural gas inventories. Analysts surveyed by Platts expect a buildup of 16 billion cubic feet to 21 billion cubic feet.

In economic news Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that overall U.S. consumer prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in March, meeting analysts' expectations. Energy prices decreased 3% last month, with declines in fuel oil, gasoline and natural gas.

Separately, manufacturing firms in the New York area reported their business was weakening in April, but at a slower pace than in March. The Empire State index improved to negative 14.7 in April, up from negative 38.2 in March.

Readings below zero indicate more firms said business was getting worse. New orders and production improved markedly, while inventories continued to fall.

Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-turns-lower-bigger-than-expected-inventories/story.aspx?guid=%7B54C119EB%2D6A16%2D4EA2%2D8FEE%2DB08115F0896E%7D&dist=msr_1

[zigzagman]

;^))

[PENNYPRINCE 1]

ty

[zigzagman]

Energy Stocks: The Economic Recovery May Be Slow
By Ben Steverman
April 14, 2009, 12:01AM EST

Chevron's earnings warning and other downbeat forecasts mean investors may have to wait longer for a recovery

Stocks in the energy sector slipped on Apr. 13 after Chevron (CVX) warned of "sharply lower" profits, underlining expectations that the sector's earnings face a rough first quarter.

Yet many investors continue to stick with energy stocks. After a steep decline in both energy shares and the price of oil and other commodities last year, many still hope for a revival for big oil and other energy companies in the second half of this year. So far this year through Apr. 9, the S&P Energy index has fallen 6.3%, vs. a 5.2% drop in the S&P 500 index. But some groups within energy, such as oil and gas drilling and energy equipment and services, are up for the year.

The main dispute between energy bulls and bears: the state of the world economy, and whether a recovery is coming soon or later. The global economy will have a direct effect on the demand for oil and other energy sources. For big energy companies like Chevron, Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), and BP (BP), "oil and gas prices are the main driver for the bottom line," says Tina Vital, equity analyst at Standard & Poor's. (S&P, like BusinessWeek, is a unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies.)

No Relief in 2009

Chevron's announcement, issued late on Apr. 9, caused stock analysts to cut their earnings expectations sharply for the oil giant, which will report full results on May 1. The main culprit is the price of oil, which has slashed Chevron's profit margins throughout its business operations. "It's a very tough pricing environment for crude oil," says Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer at Tradition Capital Management.

On Apr. 10, the International Energy Agency said it expects global demand for oil to drop 2.8% in 2009. The IEA cited "a growing consensus that economic and oil demand recovery will be deferred to 2010." On the NYMEX on Apr. 13, crude oil prices dropped 4.5%, to just below $50 per barrel. Last July, oil hit a peak of $147 per barrel.

The global recession has destroyed demand for crude oil, says Halliburton, who is pessimistic about the prospects for an economic rebound any time soon. "Recovery this year in the economy is a pipe dream," he says. A "muted" recovery could arrive in the early part of 2010, he says.

However, Hodges Capital Management energy analyst Mike Breard points out that world governments are "throwing so much money into the system, eventually it's going to help." He predicts a rebound in oil prices in the second half of 2009. That's driven not just by economic recovery, he says, but also a slowdown in drilling by the industry and the depletion of existing wells. Oil prices should also rise if the world experiences a bout of inflation or the U.S. dollar weakens, he adds. S&P's Vital agrees. "Most people believe that this dip in oil prices is temporary," she says.

Robust Production

The problem with predictions of oil prices, however, is that commodity forecasters are notoriously unreliable. Edmund Cowart, portfolio manager at Eagle Asset Management, says oil companies "can't control the prices they receive." However, they can control other factors, and Cowart believes Chevron is doing a good job (he owns Chevron shares).

While the industry as a whole is cutting back on new drilling and seeing existing wells dry up, Chevron is expected to increase production by a healthy 4% in 2009. In the first quarter, Chevron said it has increased production through repairs of Gulf of Mexico facilities damaged by hurricanes last year. Several other international oil fields are expected to bear fruit in 2009 and beyond, analysts say.

Cowart adds that Chevron seems to be controlling costs in its refineries—even though profit margins for the refining industry are getting squeezed by low oil prices. "We think they're doing a pretty good job" with the things the company can control, he says.

Shrinking Demand

For bullish energy investors, the one bright spot is China. According to Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, China's "stimulus program may be starting to work already." Car sales and iron ore imports hit a record in March; industrial production rose 8.3% from the year before; and crude oil imports reached a one-year high, Yardeni wrote in an Apr. 13 note.

But, assuming such encouraging numbers are sustainable, there is no guarantee that fast growth in China will be enough to make up for shrinking demand in the rest of the world.

When oil prices and the world economy recover, investors could see lots of upside in energy stocks. But if the global slowdown lingers or worsens, even oil's current price of $50-per-barrel may be seen as overly optimistic. And shares of even the best-run oil companies will feel the consequences.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2009/pi20090413_182866.htm?chan=investing_investing+index+page_top+stories

[zigzagman]

I'm sorry James, I missed seeing this post...

No, I don't take chart requests anymore......

But I do know who does...These folks are great chartists, and they live to annotate charts for other members...Go to the TECHNICAL ANALYSIS board and ask them...I'm sure they'll be happy to assist you...

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7882

[PENNYPRINCE 1]

Zig do you have the time to comment on and do similar charts on TMR and DNE and post on those threads? Ty

[zigzagman]

Tesoro's MACD Indicates Bullishness
Thursday April 9, 2009, 4:27 pm EDT

Tesoro Corp's (TSO) MACD indicator is signaling a cross over to bullish territory with a reading of 0.1328. The Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock has gained more than 5% to $15.5 in afternoon trade. The consensus estimate for the current fiscal year has increased by 23 cents over the past 60 days to $1.55 per share.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Tesoros-MACD-Indicates-zacks-14896259.html

(see chart below)

[zigzagman]

News for 'TSO' - (SmarTrend(R) News Watch: Today's Analyst Upgrades)

Apr 09, 2009 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) -- Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) raised
to Buy at Societe Generale... HMS Holdings (NASDAQ:HMSY) raised to Buy, $36
target, at Jefferies... Liberty Media Capital (NASDAQ:LCAPA) raised to Buy at
Deutsche Bank... RF Micro (NASDAQ:RFMD) raised to Buy at UBS... SunTrust
(NYSE:STI) raised to Outperform at KBW... Tesoro Corp. (NYSE:TSO) raised to
Hold, $16 target, at Soleil... Universal Health (NYSE:UHS) raised to Outperform
at Credit Suisse...

[zigzagman]

Oil rises as inventories rise less than expected
By Moming Zhou & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:14 p.m. EDT April 8, 2009


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures turned higher Wednesday, bouncing back from sharp losses in the previous three sessions as government data showed U.S. crude inventories rose less than expected while inventories at a key delivery point declined.

Crude inventories rose 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3, the Energy Information Administration reported.

Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, fell for a third straight week to 30 million barrels.

Crude for May delivery rose 23 cents, or 0.5%, to end at $49.38 a barrel on the Nymex. It fell as low as $47.37 earlier in the session as analysts had expected an inventories buildup of more than 2 million barrels. Wednesday's gain followed crude's 6.6% loss in the previous three sessions.

Despite a smaller-than-expected increase in inventories, stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, still stood at the highest level in 16 years. Meanwhile, the EIA also reported petroleum demand over the last four-week period fell 4.4% from a year ago.

"Crude stocks didn't increase as much as anticipated but stocks remain well above the high end of the normal range," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics.

"On the consumption side the U.S. is using less of everything," he added. "The data is a clear indicator that the recession has changed consumer behavior."

The EIA also reported that gasoline inventories rose 600,000 barrels while distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, declined by 3.4 million barrels.

U.S. refineries operated at 81.8% of their operable capacity last week, up slightly from a week ago, the EIA said.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.9 million barrels during the week ended April 3.

The API, which uses different criteria to gauge inventories, also reported an increase of 2.8 million barrels in gasoline stocks as well as a decline of 2.2 million barrels in distillate stocks.

Also on Wednesday, May reformulated gasoline rose 1.4% to $1.4396 a gallon and May heating oil gained 0.6% to $1.3982 a gallon.

May natural-gas futures gained 4.6% to $3.562 per million British thermal units.

The EIA will report last week's U.S. natural gas inventories Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Platts expect an increase of 11 billion cubic feet to 16 billion cubic feet.

Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BF0E33839%2DB380%2D4754%2DB4DD%2DF0B55182BA20%7D&siteid=rss

[zigzagman]

Maybe they'll beat ANALyst's expectations THIS time...

As long as they don't have any "one time charges" the ANALyst's don't recognize again, they just might beat...

I'll be watching their earnings report closely...Still a month or so to go...

[jaj1]

TSO earning release after the market closes on Wednesday, May 6, 2009

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Tesoro-Corporation-To-Release-bw-14870854.html

[zigzagman]

no problem...I'll do some hunting...

and maybe find it on Yahoo Finance or somewhere else...

[jaj1]

Ziggy doing fine. I haven't been trading TSO lately either still
watching it though.
I got that news off my Scottrade DJ news streamer sorry no link.


jaj1

[zigzagman]

Hey! 'jaj1'...How are you?...

Are you still playing TSO?..

I haven't been paying much attention to this one lately...

Can you give me a link to that Valero story?...

I'd like to post it on the Valero board too...TIA

[jaj1]

*DJ Lukoil VP: Aruba Would Complement Venezuela Crude Output

. Ê (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones NewswiresÊ April 07, 2009 12:42 ET (16:42 GMT)Ê

*DJ Lukoil VP: No Immediate Interest In Valero Aruba Refinery

. Ê (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones NewswiresÊ April 07, 2009 12:42 ET (16:42 GMT)Ê

DJ Lukoil VP: No Immediate Interest In Valero Aruba Refinery

. Ê NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Russian oil company OAO Lukoil Holdings (LKOH.RS) said Tuesday that it had no immediate interest in buying Valero Energy Corp.'s (VLO) refinery on the island of Aruba. Ê "We're not interested," Lukoil vice president Leonid Fedun told reporters following a meeting with investors. Ê Fedun said the asset would make a better fit with Lukoil's operations if the Russian major had a crude stream from Venezuela to refine. Ê Lukoil is currently in talks with Venezuela on finalizing a production venture, but output probably won't start "for many years," Fedun said.

[zigzagman]

Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Prices for U.S., Europe for May:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=a0c.tTXwqt3o&refer=energy

[zigzagman]

Crude Oil Set for Rally to $68, Banks Say: Technical Analysis

By Grant Smith * Last Updated: April 3, 2009 07:22 EDT


April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s rally may carry on to $68 a barrel, technical analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG and BNP Paribas SA said.

Oil futures in New York formed a “base” between $40 and $50 a barrel in the first quarter from which prices can rally further, David Sneddon, head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse in London, and Andrew Chaveriat, a BNP analyst in New York, said separately.

Having broken out of the range set by the rally from Dec. 19’s four-year low of $32.40 to the high of $50.47 on Jan. 6, prices are poised to move higher. Oil may repeat the $18.07 a barrel gain of that December-to-January advance, giving a target of about $68.50 a barrel, the analysts said.

“You wouldn’t give up on the rally yet, it still has legs,” Sneddon, said yesterday at a London presentation hosted by Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.

Futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, 19 percent higher this year, traded at $53.07 a barrel today.

Crude will first be drawn to $59.50, a price target shown on a so-called Fibonacci chart as a 23.6 percent recovery of last year’s crash from July’s record of $147.27 down to $32.40. Prices may then peak near $68.50, Sneddon said.

The ratios used in Fibonacci analysis are based on the sequence identified by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century and used to predict support and resistance levels for prices.

In contrast to Seddon, BNP’s Chaveriat said crude may surpass the target near $68 and rise above $70 a barrel in the next three months. The contract will be drawn towards its next Fibonacci level of $76.28, a 38.2 percent retracement of last year’s decline, Chaveriat said.

“It would not be unreasonable to see $71 or $72 later this summer,” Chaveriat added. “The best barometer showing the path of least resistance is upwards in the medium term is the big base we built back in December, January.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at [e-mail]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=acgfOs3bFxT0&refer=energy

[zigzagman]

Oil Rises the Most in 3 Weeks as G-20 Agrees to Fight Recession

By Mark Shenk

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose the most in three weeks as leaders of the Group of 20 nations meeting in London agreed on measures to fight the global recession.

Oil surged after the G-20 said it will implement new rules on compensation and bonuses, expand controls on hedge funds and pledge more than $1 trillion in emergency aid to cushion the economic fallout. Energy prices also increased as the euro gained against the dollar, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“Prices are up on a renewed sense that the worst may be behind us,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consulting company in New Canaan, Connecticut. “As the economy recovers there will be increased demand for commodities.”

Crude oil for May delivery rose $4.25, or 8.8 percent, to settle at $52.64 a barrel at 2:53 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest increase since March 12. Prices are up 18 percent this year.

The G-20 nations will channel $850 billion to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. They also offered cash to revive trade to help governments weather the economic and social turmoil. They sidestepped the question of whether to deliver more stimulus in their own economies.

“The markets like the fact that a lot more money is going to the IMF,” said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “The additional funds should be stimulative.”

Equities Rally

Stocks rallied around the world, driving the MSCI World Index higher for a third day, as some reports suggest the pace of economic decline may be easing. China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in six months in March. Orders placed with U.S. factories in February rose 1.8 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 3.7 percent to 840.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.6 percent to 8,037.98.

“Oil demand will start going up, perhaps later this year,” Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, said today at an oil conference in Paris. “There is no doubt the economic crisis will be resolved and the economy will rebound.”

The euro rose after the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. A drop of 100 basis points was forecast, according to a Bloomberg survey. The common currency climbed 1.5 percent to $1.3451 from $1.3249 yesterday.

Dollar Takes Hit

“The equity and commodity markets have shaken off a lot of dour economic news,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global Inc. in New York. “The ECB cut interest rates by less than expected and that’s given the dollar a real shellacking.”

Copper futures for May delivery jumped 4.1 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $1.89 a pound on the Comex division of Nymex, the highest close for a most-active contract since Nov. 4. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose 8.48 points, or 3.9 percent, to 226.29.

Prices have rebounded this year as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production. The group reduced daily output targets by 4.2 million barrels since September to prevent a glut and bolster prices.

OPEC cut oil output by 1.2 percent to an average 27.395 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The 11 OPEC members with quotas, all except Iraq, pumped 25.06 million barrels a day, 215,000 more than their target of 24.845 million.

Bottomed Out

Oil prices “have bottomed out now and we hope they will improve, even though fundamentals are really the same,” OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said today before the Paris oil conference.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Brent crude oil prices may reach $50 a barrel this year, up from an earlier estimate of $45, because of OPEC production cuts.

Brent crude oil for May settlement rose $4.31, or 8.9 percent, to end the session at $52.75 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Reports showing rising inventories and falling demand signal that the worst of the recession may not be over. U.S. crude supplies climbed 2.84 million barrels in the week ended March 27 to the highest since July 1993, the Energy Department reported yesterday. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.23 million barrels to 216.8 million.

Gasoline Rises

Gasoline futures for May delivery increased 9.81 cents, or 7.2 percent, to settle at $1.4698 a gallon in New York.

The International Energy Agency is likely to lower the oil demand forecast in its next monthly report, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

“There’s nothing bullish in the fundamentals in the near future,” said Raymond Carbone, president of Paramount Options Inc. in New York and a trader at the exchange. “This is all on hope. I’m on the confused side myself right now.”

Crude oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 459,100 contracts as of 3:00 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 456,053 contracts yesterday, 18 percent lower than the average over the past three months. Open interest was 1.16 million contracts. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at [e-mail]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=ajlntW.nZc3U&refer=energy

[zigzagman]

Oil falls on higher inventories, economic worries
By Moming Zhou & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:13 p.m. EDT April 1, 2009


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell Wednesday as U.S. petroleum inventories unexpectedly increased last week and as investors cast doubts on whether the Group of 20 nations can act in concert to pull the global economy out of recession.

Data from the Energy Information Administration showed surprising gains in gasoline and diesel inventories as demand fell. Crude inventories also rose from their highest level in 16 years, though not as much as expected. Adding more pressures in crude trading, data showed the U.S. labor market worsened again in March.

Crude for May delivery fell $1.27, or 2.6%, to end at $48.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"The increase in gasoline and crude stocks, combined with falling consumption, should put downward pressure on the entire petroleum market," said James Williams, economist at WTRG Economics. "The impact of the recession is clear in the petroleum data."

Gasoline inventories increased 2.2 million barrels in the week ended March 27, the EIA reported. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected a decline of 1.8 million barrels.

The EIA also reported an increase of 300,000 barrels in distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, while analysts had expected a drawdown for the week. Meanwhile, crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels, staying at the highest level since July 1993.

However, crude inventories at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for Nymex oil futures, fell 800,000 barrels to 30.9 million barrels.

On the Nymex, May reformulated gasoline fell 4.96 cents, or 3.5%, to $1.3717 a gallon and May heating oil dropped 2.21 cents, or 6%, to $1.3458 a gallon. May natural gas also lost 8.1 cents, or 2.1%, to $3.695 per million British thermal units.

The data showed weaker demand helped the buildups in inventories. Total demand for petroleum demand over the last four-week period averaged 18.9 million barrels a day, down by 4.4% compared to the similar period last year.

Among them, motor gasoline demand averaged 9 million barrels a day, down by 0.2% from a year ago, while distillate fuel demand slumped by 9.1%.

U.S. refineries operated at 81.7% of their operable capacity last week, down from the 82% a week ago, the EIA reported.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude supplies rose by 3.3 million barrels during the week ended March 27. Distillate stocks surged by 1.77 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 451,000 barrels, said the Washington-based industry group, which uses different criteria to gauge inventories.

More grim economic news

Also weighing on crude's trading was more gloomy economic news.

U.S. private-sector firms cut 742,000 jobs in March, according to the ADP employment index.

It was the largest job loss recorded by ADP in its nine-year history. The size of the drop doesn't bode well for the government's report on nonfarm payrolls and joblessness due out Friday. See Economic Report.

And in Japan, the second-biggest oil consumer, a key indicator of business sentiment fell to its lowest level on record during the first quarter. See full story.

In London, the G20 meeting officially kicks off Wednesday evening. Read more.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/crude-futures-fall-expected-rise/story.aspx?guid=%7B2C9CB168-16CB-4276-A62C-313F9509742D%7D&dist=google

[zigzagman]

Oil Falls the Most in Four Weeks as Stocks Drop, Dollar Gains

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell the most in four weeks as tumbling equity markets signaled that the recession in major energy-consuming countries may deepen, curbing fuel use.

Oil dropped 7.6 percent after President Barack Obama said that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have one last chance to “fundamentally restructure.” The dollar strengthened to its highest level against the euro in more than a week, limiting the appeal of commodities as an investment.

“Worry about the U.S. auto industry and what that means for the economy as a whole has the dollar on a run and oil falling lower,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global Inc. in New York. “The bailout of the auto industry roiled the markets late last year and will continue to do so.”

Crude oil for May delivery fell $3.97 to $48.41 a barrel at 2:53 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since March 18. It was the biggest decline since March 2. Prices are up 8.5 percent this year.

Gasoline and heating oil followed crude oil lower. Gasoline futures for April delivery fell 10.8 cents, or 7.3 percent, to settle at $1.3799 a gallon in New York, the lowest since March 18. It was the biggest decline for the motor fuel since Feb. 17.

Heating oil for April delivery declined 9.02 cents, or 6.3 percent, to end the session at $1.3426 a gallon, the biggest drop since March 2.

Stocks Slump

U.S. stocks slumped the most in three weeks on the warning to automakers and because the administration said that some banks will need more government aid. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 3.5 percent to 787.53. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 254.16, or 3.3 percent, to 7,522.02.

G.M. plunged as much as 34 percent as the company’s recovery plan was rejected by the government and Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner was forced to resign.

“The General Motors news was a rather pointed reminder that the economy and oil demand are nowhere near a recovery,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, in Winchester, Massachusetts. “There was a lot of excitement last week because of rising stock prices, which pushed oil prices too high.”

The euro fell against the dollar for a third day on speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates to the lowest since the currency’s introduction in 1999. The dollar strengthened 0.9 percent to $1.317 per euro from $1.3287.

“The stronger dollar and falling equities are a recipe for lower prices,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities fell 7.09 points, or 3.2 percent, to 215.17, the biggest one-day drop since March 2.

Supplies May Rise

U.S. crude oil stockpiles surged 3.3 million barrels to 356.6 million barrels in the week ended March 20, the highest since July 1993 and 13 percent more than average for this time of year, according to an Energy Department report on March 25. Supplies probably rose 3.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of nine responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

Global demand remains slack and oil is unlikely to reach $60 a barrel this year, said Qatar’s oil minister, Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah. Recent oil-price gains were driven by the dollar, not improved supply and demand, Al-Attiyah said in an interview in Kuwait yesterday.

“The international economy is still very weak,” he said. “The crisis has not reached the bottom so we have to be very careful.”

OPEC Meeting

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will watch for improvement in the global economy when it meets May 28 to decide whether more oil needs to be removed from the market, Iran’s OPEC governor said. The group agreed on March 15 to keep output quotas unchanged, saying members have to cut a further 800,000 barrels a day to comply with existing targets.

“Another cut will depend on the economic situation,” the governor, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said in an interview in Kuwait today. “OPEC is trying to bring stock levels to within the five-year average of about 55 days. Stocks are maybe two days more than the average now.”

Brent crude oil for May settlement fell $3.99, or 7.7 percent, to end the session at $47.99 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent touched $47.66, the lowest since March 18.

Crude oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 357,649 contracts as of 3:17 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 325,497 contracts on March 27, the lowest since Jan. 2, and 40 percent lower than the average over the past three months.

Open interest March 27 was 1.16 million contracts. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.

[zigzagman]

LOW OIL PRICES....FUTURES

"Seven consecutive years of rising oil prices - unprecedented in the history of the oil industry - have come crashing down, thus burying the notion that the commodity price cycle was a historical relic," the report says. "Instead, old truths have been reaffirmed. Sustained rising oil prices do, eventually, affect demand trends. One-way bets on oil prices eventually go awry."

The report adds that the "commodity price cycle" is affected "by global economy, geopolitics, and technology. The question today is, as always, 'When will the next swing in oil price occur?'"

Economic growth and oil demand will be key factors that also affect future supply. After declining in 2008 and 2009, CERA expects oil demand to pick up in 2010. However, "If oil demand does not begin to recover next year, the oil market could face a large surplus of production capacity for the next several years - even if growth in production capacity slows significantly," said James Burkhard, CERA managing director and an author of the report.

CERA's analysis finds that, with the fall in oil prices, the pace at which new supply will grow and come onstream is already slowing. Given the global economic climate, short-term corporate cash flow problems will lead to project deferrals throughout the global industry, and financial pressures could spark a possible wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Oil-exploring countries face a large reduction in revenue compared with 2008 as well, and current indications are that as many as 35 new projects in OPEC countries will be delayed significantly.

The Long Aftershock concludes that if all "at risk" supply fails to materialize, world oil production capacity just five years from now could be 101.4 mbd, 7.6 mbd below the pre-collapse CERA projection of 109 mbd for 2014. The report identifies the most likely areas for postponements as new heavy oil and deep water projects and countries with difficult fiscal regimes, as well as a reduction in the investment in new biofuel, gas-to-liquid and coal-to-liquid projects, and high cost discretionary "rank wildcat exploration." Although it will take time for these changes to have an impact on total global oil supply, that impact could prove to be significant.

CERA Chairman and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power Daniel Yergin added, "Future demand is particularly uncertain today because of the impact of high prices on consumers, the depth of the recession, the shifts in the automobile industry, and the introduction of new energy and climate change policies."

But, the report says, if demand growth is eventually far greater than expected, especially in emerging markets, and current, prolonged low oil prices persist and productive capacity growth stalls even more than expected, a new period of tight supply and strongly rising oil prices could mark the next turn in the oil cycle.


http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/technology/cera-low-oil-prices-putting-supply-growth-risk/

[zigzagman]

Hard times mean new opportunities for Big Oil
(and higher margins for refineries...)

By JOHN PORRETTO – 18 hours ago

HOUSTON (AP) — Plunging crude prices have begun to play out in favor of Western oil companies in one regard, giving them leverage with oil-rich countries that only months ago had no reason to compromise.

Countries like Venezuela, Libya and Russia have kept a tight grip on their vast oil reserves in recent years as crude prices soared above $100 per barrel, translating into big revenues. Much of that money, rather than going back into the oil industry, was spent on unrelated political and social programs.

At $50 per barrel, these countries are far more constrained and can't adequately fund some oil and gas projects.

Experts say Western oil corporations, who stockpiled cash when profits were flush, can shift operations to any corner of the globe and have the capital that allows them to strike deals with state-controlled producers on very favorable terms. When that might happen is uncertain, but energy experts and some executives have said deals are imminent if prices remain at current levels.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gnr_ZCawduHMNthD9cG--rVkGFpAD977F4T80

[zigzagman]

Oil Price Spike Coming! Oil Price Spike Coming!
Posted Mar 27, 2009 01:15pm EDT by Jay Yarow in Investing, Commodities, Recession

From The Business Insider, March 27, 2009:

Another group is warning that we are on a crash course towards oil shortages in the near future.

Today, it's a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (via NYT), that said the drop in oil investment and production will cause a “powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse.”

When demand picks up again, there won't be oil in place to support the expansion of the economy and we'll probably see another spike in oil prices.

It's just another alarm bell ringing on oil. The IEA warned in February that a lack of oil exploration would lead to a big spike in price once the economy gets going again. We said it again in March. Then Barclay's using a technical trend analysis said oil would definitely hit $57 soon, and would probably go to $60. And, of course, T. Boone Pickens clangs the bell every opportunity he gets.

Earlier this week McKinsey released 150 page PDF detailing why oil would run right back to $150 unless we changed a few things. Mckinsey suggested that we implement government policies so we can reduce the demand for oil, as it will be more difficult to control supply than demand.

Some of their suggestions:

In light vehicles we can apply more stringent efficiency standards which would cut oil demand by 2 million barrels a day.
Increase building and industrial efficiency could save 6 million barrels a day.

Remove trade barriers to sugar-cane ethanol, could abate oil-demand. Along with that require all autos to be fuel-flexible so they can take advantage of biofuels.
Reverse the shift to diesel passenger vehicles will save .5 million barrels per day of diesel.
Substituting boiler fuels, could abate 8 million barrels a day.
We are skeptical of any plan that calls for an increased reliance on biofuels. Maybe the government should consider subsidising oil production? We'd like to see the public reaction to that idea. As of right now, crude oil for May delivery is at $53.33 a barrel on the NYMEX.

[zigzagman]

Fear of Future Oil Shock Increases

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/business/energy-environment/27oil.html

›March 27, 2009
By JAD MOUAWAD

Sharp reductions in investments and low oil prices could curb future supplies by almost eight million barrels a day within the next five years, according to a study scheduled for release Friday, the latest warning that the world could face a new energy shock when the economy picks up.

The report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an oil consulting firm, said that the potential drop in production capacity is a “powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse.”

The global slowdown has forced oil companies to slash their investments, postpone or cancel expansion plans, or delay drilling in many corners of the world. While some of the biggest companies, like Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell, say they will keep their investments unchanged this year, many other producers are curbing investments because of the crisis.

The report says about 7.6 million barrels a day of future supplies are “at risk” of being deferred or canceled, like heavy oil or deepwater projects, and which could bring total supplies to 101.4 million barrels a day by 2014. Last year, the group projected that capacity would rise to 109 million barrels a day by then.

“Seven consecutive years of rising oil prices — unprecedented in the history of the oil industry — have come crashing down, thus burying the notion that the commodity price cycle was a historical relic,” said the report, a field-by-field study of production trends.

Many experts have voiced even darker concerns in recent months. Christophe de Margerie, the chief executive of French oil company Total, recently said that producers would find it challenging to bolster supplies even to 90 million barrels a day by the middle of the next decade as projects get canceled.

Oil prices have fallen by 63 percent from their peak of $147 a barrel last summer. They are now trading around $54 a barrel after OPEC producers curbed supplies to prevent a price collapse.

But even at this level, many producers warn that oil prices remain too low to sustain increased investments.

Global oil demand is headed for its second consecutive drop this year. Over time, as populations grow, most experts expect oil consumption to rebound as emerging economies become richer. Any slowdown in investments now will translate into higher prices.

This month, oil producers meeting in Vienna also warned of a possible price shock when the demand for oil picks up again in coming years. As many as 35 new projects in nations belonging to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may be delayed by 2013.

“I have often described unsustainably low oil prices as carrying the seeds of future spikes and volatility. In a low-price environment, the trend is often to focus on survival instead of expansion,” Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, said recently. “If we place a low priority on preparing for the future, that lack of action can come back to haunt us through supply shortages and another round of high prices.”

The same concerns are also worrying economic experts from consuming countries, including the International Energy Agency and the International Monetary Fund.

“The lower that oil prices drop now and the longer they stay low, the greater the negative impact on future supply,” John Lipsky, the first deputy managing director of the I.M.F., told an OPEC conference in Vienna this month. “In other words, today’s low prices could be setting the stage for another price run-up in the future.”‹

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Yeah...I saw that early this morning...

But forgot to post it here...NOT good news...

[jaj1]

*DJ Tesoro Cut To Sell From Hold By Benchmark Research -Briefing.com

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U.S. Refiners Squeezed by Collapse in Crude Oil Discounts:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/127384-u-s-refiners-squeezed-by-collapse-in-crude-oil-discounts?source=yahoo

[jaj1]

sold 14.60 feels heavy to me and up against resistance.

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Valero Plunges Into Ethanol:

By Christopher Barker
March 20, 2009

I've been attempting to teach an old dog new tricks lately, and I can confirm that the old adage is tried and true. But Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) proved it's no old dog this week, by delving into the ethanol business in a major way.

Beating out ethanol giant Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) with a $477 million bid, Valero is the proud new owner of seven ethanol plants in the American heartland, facilities which formed a major chunk of operations for the now-bankrupt VeraSun Energy.

I must admit, I have little regard for corn-based ethanol as a fuel source. Last year's enormous surge in corn prices alone was enough to convince this Fool that having humans and cars competing for the same fuel source can't possibly end well.

Alternative energy was a hot topic in the CAPS blogs last summer when oil prices surged, and the case against corn-based ethanol was convincingly argued through some excellent posts. Oil refiner Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) recently challenged ethanol requirements in California on the basis of reports showing that ethanol production actually increases greenhouse gas emissions … a point conceded by a spokesman for the California Air Resources Board.

Corn continues to trade above historical price levels, and gasoline demand remains depressed, making the business of ethanol production tenuous at best. Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (NYSE: AVR) has indicated a risk of following VeraSun into bankruptcy. Even Verenium (Nasdaq: VRNM), which is partnering with BP (NYSE: BP) to build a $300 million cellulosic ethanol facility in Florida, has expressed uncertainty about its ability to proceed with operations. For the record, I consider cellulosic ethanol a far more promising technology than its corn-based predecessor, and I avidly track the progress of companies like BP and DuPont in its development.

Despite the obvious shortcomings of corn-based ethanol, the government seems to have assured steady demand for it and other biofuels. New regulations require 11.1 billion gallons of renewable fuel to join the nation's fuel supply this year, increasing to 36 billion gallons by 2022. Given those standards, and Valero's expectation for additional requirements in the future, the purchase of these assets at distressed valuations could prove strategically significant.

With integrated producers like BP and independent refiners like Valero paving the way, I see giants like ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) among potential bidders for any remaining ethanol assets that might move onto the auction block. In other words, a lot of old dogs could soon be learning new tricks.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/03/20/valero-plunges-into-ethanol.aspx

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Oil rebounds as OPEC keeps supply levels steady
Monday March 16, 4:05 pm ET

Oil looks past OPEC decision to forgo supply cut and rebounds alongside stock markets

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090316/oil_prices.html

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) -- Oil prices rebounded from an early retreat Monday, as traders brushed aside OPEC supply-side issues and focused on higher stock prices.
Benchmark crude for April delivery gained $1.10 to settle at $47.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell as low as $43.62 overnight after OPEC decided to forgo further production cuts in favor of boosting compliance with existing ones.

Oil climbed into positive territory by midday Monday on the coattails of the Dow Jones industrials, which gained about 100 points. The S&P 500 index also gained ground.

Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consulting group Ritterbusch and Associates, said OPEC's willingness to hold the line on supply is forcing traders to shift their focus to the demand side, and, at least for a day, the signs are good.

"It's just a feel-good thing that people are looking at and saying, 'Hey, this economy still has a chance to recover during the second half of this year, and if that happens oil demand's going to improve,'" Ritterbusch said.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Sunday they will try to stick more closely to the group's current output quotas but will not make further cuts.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., said de-facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia recognizes that when people aren't buying the oil that's already being pumped, production cuts don't matter.

"I think they're starting to realize that they have to stimulate this economy with lower prices before they can get the long-term demand growth that they're looking for," Flynn said. "They've got to get back in step with the rest of the world that is trying to stimulate the economy as opposed to trying to slow it down by raising prices."

Oil prices rose from less than $35 a barrel last month as investors anticipated the cartel would cut production by up to 1 million barrels a day on top of 4.2 million barrels of reductions announced since September.

While some of the oil producers at Sunday's meeting said they supported another cut, Saudi Arabia argued instead for stricter compliance with the existing output reductions. OPEC is overshooting its daily target level of just under 25 million barrels a day by about 800,000 barrels.

Flynn said the market should have known that if the Saudis weren't going to cut, no one else would.

A new cut remains an option during a May 28 OPEC special session to review prices and supply.

Saudi Arabia's oil minister said Monday that petroleum-producing countries need a price of at least $60 a barrel to bring more energy resources on the market.

"If we want all hydrocarbon resources developed worldwide, 40 dollars is not enough," Ali al-Naimi told reporters in Geneva, where he was attending an energy conference.

Analysts noted the presence of Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin at the Vienna meeting.

Russia has toyed with the idea of working more closely with OPEC to control the flow of oil to the world and Sechin on Sunday announced that his country is reducing crude sales.

Analyst and trader Stephen Schork said Sechin discussed having a permanent Russian representative at OPEC's Secretariat.

"Is this the first step to Russia joining OPEC? Stay tuned," Schork said.

Oil traders will likely turn their attention to global crude demand and the possibility of a second-half economic recovery.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday on CBS' "60 Minutes" broadcast that the U.S. recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system.

However, Bernanke said that even if the recession, which began in December 2007, ends this year, the unemployment rate will keep climbing past the current 8.1 percent, the highest level in 25 years.

Flynn said with continued weak heating demand and below-normal industrial demand, another round of weak prices is in the foreseeable future.

"It's getting harder to get excited about being long oil," he said.

The national retail average price for a gallon of regular gas gained two-tenths of a cent to $1.91 a gallon, according AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. That is 5.5 cents a gallon above what it was a month ago, but $2.20 below last July when prices peaked at $4.11 per gallon.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery gained 1.44 cents to settle at $1.3673 a gallon, while heating oil added 1.58 cents to settle at $1.2130 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery lost 8.2 cents to settle at $3.850 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent prices lost 95 cents to settle at $43.98 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Associated Press Writers Alex Kennedy in Singapore and Pablo Gorondi in Budapest, Hungary, and George Jahn in Vienna contributed to this report.

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TSO is having a pretty good day...

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OPEC to keep present output
OPEC says it will stick to present production levels
Sunday March 15, 2009, 4:16 pm EDT

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/OPEC-to-keep-present-apf-14643664.html

VIENNA (AP) -- OPEC tried on Sunday to nudge oil prices up by urging its members to stop overproducing, but the cartel decided not to cut current output levels which could have driven prices sharply higher.

Explaining the decision, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri spoke of his organization's concern over "ugly" global economic times that overrode the desire to achieve a quick fix by setting a lower overall output for the 12-nation producer's club.

"We see people who are out of work, we see people in tents in the most rich countries," he told reporters. While OPEC's goal remains higher prices for its product, "the time is not right" for more radical measures, he said.

The decision was sure to be welcomed by the U.S. and other major oil consuming countries, because setting lower output limits would could have jolted the already anemic world economy through a sudden price increase.

It also reflected realization with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that any action more drastic than calling for quota compliance at a time of global economic crisis could ultimately backfire in real terms, by further depressing demand and driving down prices.

The OPEC decision came as the world took a breather from the usual relentless slew of bad news since the financial crisis became most acute last October. The Dow Jones industrial average is up around 10 percent this week, and most Asian and European markets also rose. However, governments and investors are wary of calling it the start of a turnaround.

"They have recognized the fact that they ought to be cutting," said trader and analyst Stephen Schork of Villanova, Pennsylvania. "But they have taken into consideration that this could potentially set prices on fire, which would have retarded the nascent economic recovery that we have seen."

The move, he said, "sends a strong message to producer and consumer alike that we are all in this together -- they need us to buy and we need to afford to be able to buy."

Still, more drastic measures could be enacted within a few months.

The ministers agreed to meet in special session on May 28 to review prices and supply. That gathering could decide to reduce the oil producing club's output levels, if the oil ministers think that crude prices remain too low and the global economy has improved.

Cheap oil has been a rare bright spot in the otherwise gloomy world economic picture, selling in the mid- to upper-$30s this week -- less than a third of its summer record levels. But while benefiting consumers, those prices have forced many OPEC members to revise spending and warn that they cannot invest in further oil production.

Some OPEC nations had urged direct oil output cuts by setting lower levels, as the 12-nation organization usually does when it wants to raise prices.

But OPEC's de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, and others had instead favored calling on overproducing members to comply with their quotas as a way of reducing world oil supply without causing prices to rise rapidly.

Cuts agreed on since September were meant to take a daily 4.2 million barrels off the market. But the 11 members that are under production quotas are still overshooting their joint daily target level of just under 25 million barrels by more than 800,000 barrels a day, or 21 percent above formal set limits.

While 100 percent compliance with quotas is unlikely, even an additional 10 percent would take more than 400,000 barrels a day off markets, slicing into oversupply while reducing the price shock that an outright cut in existing quotas would have caused.

"We have urged our member countries to comply," said el-Badri. "We have an overhang of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels. If we have more compliance, we can reduce it further."

OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, Angola's oil minister, acknowledged the group had little authority to enforce quota compliance on cheating members. But he said the 12-nation producers' club would "continue working with countries that are not complying, so that they do."

London-based analyst John Hall said Angola was among those, producing a daily 130,000 barrels above its quota. He welcomed Sunday's decision as "supporting rescue packages already announced by various governments" seeking the way out of the economic crisis.

Earlier Sunday, Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin announced that his country is reducing crude sales in an apparent boost for OPEC, which has repeatedly urged Russia for support as the world's second largest producer after the Saudis.

At its peak in early 2008, Russia was producing 9.5 million barrels of crude a day. But those levels have been shrinking and the announced cuts could be just a way of dressing up Moscow's inability to keep up present output levels because of lagging investment that is expected to result in an output decline of around 2 percent this year.

On the net: http://www.opec.org