Tel-Instrument Electronics Corp. (TIKK)

[SSKILLZ1]

TIK

I have been a buyer of TIK in the mid to upper 4’s in the last week. Here is what I like.

1) TIK has been beaten up for and overreaction in my opinion. CEO is overly conservative. In the Q3 press release he say revs would be 5.6 million for q4, and they have turned out to be 6.5 million in q4. Now he say at least 5.5 Million which even if it was 5.5 million that is the second best quarter in recent memory, but it will probably be over 6 million when it is all said and done.

2) Are delays disappointing, yes, but the trend has to happen as there is a necessary upgrade cycle coming, so this is a multi-year story of revenue growth in my opinion.

3) TIK Should post about adjusted.22- .25 in q4, which in my opinion could get the stock going back in the right direction, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the q1 outlook is upgraded as well. Lost in the shuffle people are ignoring the facts, that they earned .10 (Minus Lawsuit, and Debt Charges in q3 on 5 million in sales). Not that it is full proof, but I see about .05 eps added for every 500k of sales.

4) Stock was liked and talked about when it was in the 6’s, I never quite got the excitement their when it was running and red hot. Since then they have followed up a really good q3, with a better q4, and a q1 looks strong despite the market disappointment, and now we get to buy it in the 4’s. To me the stock offers the best risk/reward here, as the stock has been beaten up, has two really solid quarter coming (and I strongly believe many more to come with the upgrade cycle)

Conclusion: I really like TIK and believe it offers a good risk/reward, with a multi-year growth story, really good earnings and revenue growth, and the stock is beat up. My kind of stock in my opinion. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[Smm70]

Nice to see an up day and some decent volume today.

[croptop]

yep

[sergfro]

When this company gets rid of their CEO - thats when we have a spike in price.

[sergfro]

going to Low 4's easy

[croptop]

Don't think anyone interested....

[natstocks]

Right but he have this recent guidance with only 1 month left in the quarter. Did he give the previous low guidance at a similar point through the prior quarter?

[jockinmikeg]

Thanks for the DD. Looking to establish a position here. Company looks to be a turnaround story.

[pmony5]

TIK DD post as yesterdays PR left many confused. First off the sequential drop in guidance of 5.5 mill $$$ is the same guidance the CEO gave for the 4th Qtr & came in at 6.45 mill $$$. He is ultra conservative & knowing their contracts I come up with approx 6.2 Mill $$$ for Q1.BTW the 1st Qtr tends to be their seasonally lowest Qtr. TIK reports in 3 weeks & will report Non-GAAP EPS of approx .28 cents and GAAP earnings of approx .16 or .17 cents imo. The difference is all Non Cash charges mostly tax expense as TIK has almost 14 million in NOLS that will offset tax expense for the next 5 years +. TIK is up against 3 million in Q1 & 3.5 mill in Q2 so both the next 2 Qtr's will show 100% rev increases & be highly profitable. For the upcoming year TIK should easily do 50 to 60% Revenue growth and produce $1.20 to $1.40 Non-GAAP EPS again only Non Cash items backed out.

CEO is keeping his word as 1 new product out & more to come this year, also he is now confident to state that 28 NATO countries will HAVE to go to Mode 5 test sets and the U.S.A has only just begun and will be major dollar buyers for years to come as well. How rare is it for a company to have such a great forward outlook reaching not a few quarters but several Years and barrier to entry is ZERO no new competition coming into TIK's niche...

Insiders owning over half the shares outstanding & continue to buy via Form 4's filed leaves a tiny float so when TIK does get appreciated it will move fast & hard. I mean what will a stock with years of growth trading at 4X's EPS be in a few weeks or a few months ???

Catalysts are always a stock prices best friend & finding a co. like TIK that has been losing money for years and has turned it around to grow & become profitable & in TIK's case very profitable is always a recipe for major share price appreciation especially when no one paying attn YET !!!! It's amazing once a co. starts showing big profits it never takes long for them to be found. GLTA & make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

LINK to S/A Article with more DD

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2985606-tel-instrument-over-500-percent-upside-just-to-reach-fair-value-based-on-guidance

[croptop]

thank you sir

[pmony5]

The army contract calls for TS-4530 sets and kits. The sets will produce approx 3 million a Qtr in revenues and till sets delivery accepted TIK is shipping the kits at 2.3 million per quarter so once sets approved for shipment TIK expects about $700K more in revenues per quarter going forward as the sets will displace the kits shipments....

[pmony5]

Yes 10Q by Aug 15th anyone smart enough to buy here will be very very happy in a few weeks again finding money losing co.s that turned profitable has the highest returns possible & the best catalysts.... TIK will report .26 to .28 cents Non-Gaap EPS in 3 weeks time and with tiny float will move hard and fast imo.. GLTA & make $$$$$$$$$$$$

[croptop]

What does the stupid CEO mean "waiting for approvals"?

[cleverrox]

@pmony5 - You have been right on the money on this company so far. You know it way better than many do their favorites. Thanks for your feedback! I'll look to get some on the cheap.

I'm lazy asking this - I know I could look it up - but should Q1's 10-Q come out around Aug 15?

[pmony5]

CEO a heavy sandbagger remember the 5.6 mill guidance came in 6.5? plus new product plus heavy duty orders coming from 28 NATO countries and large U.S orders and will be very profitable each n every quarter going forward

[cleverrox]

@pmony5 - What do you think of today's PR guiding for $5.5M in Q1? Do you think they will bounce back to $6M - $7M a Q for Q2 onward?

[Smm70]

Agreed buddy.

[Tcom]

Its all good..Beats getting hammered on the bid..lol

[Smm70]

Or....no trade whatsoever.

[Smm70]

You can say that again - truly anemic volume at this juncture. Spring loaded but I would anticipate a few more quick drop purchase opportunities in our near future.

[pmony5]

TIK 1 of the best market Catalysts find a co that has been losing money for years that has turned it around and becomes very profitable. TIK will report in a few weeks their first full Qtr of recently launched multi-year contracts with high profitability.... Also 4 to 6 weeks later TIK will report 1st Qtr & up against low #'s will show over 100% revenue increase and go from money loser to highly profitable ... same 100% rev increase in the 2nd Qtr... Imo only TIK will easily be in the double digits by late summer... GLTA & make $$$$$$. TIK a microfloat so could get crazy with volume...as no one paying attn yet....

[Tcom]

Thanks for the correction..I got high hopes for TIK

[pmony5]

You mean the 4th Qtr will be stellar & I agree I see .26 to .28 cents non gaap EPS adding back only non cash items to get that EPS.Better yet is the 1st & 2nd quarters as TIK is up against 3 mill & 3.5 million and both money losing quarters & TIK will do 6.5 to 7 million both quarters showing over 100% rev growth & wildly profitable. With Insiders owning over 50% of total shares outstanding leaving a tiny tiny float could get wild once people realize these muti year contracts will provide steady repeatable profitable quarters. Current forward P/E about 4X's EPS is insane for the growth rate TIK will achieve this upcoming year....

[Tcom]

2nd quarter coming up..should be stellar

[Tcom]

Touch down http://schrts.co/I8u8yg

[NoNameStocks]

Yeah if I had to guess I'd say TIK wins the lawsuit but I can't be sure. The problem for me is if they lose I could see the penalty being pretty big. But of course I'm not a lawyer so this is all just a guess on my part. You have almost a year anyhow until the trial and TIK should report some great numbers in that time. And of course the trial could continue getting backed up

Dan

[nsomniyak]

Thanks for the extensive writeup. I think TIK is worth a shot despite the (imho small) potential for a major penalty if they lose the lawsuit.

[NoNameStocks]

New write up on TIK.

I have done a lot of research into TIK and wrote it up on my blog.

http://www.nonamestocks.com/2015/05/why-is-tik-so-cheap.html

I could not get comfortable with the lawsuit so I took no position. Lot of background info there for anyone researching the company

[Stocks4John]

MM's are playing games on the bid.

[Tcom]

Pay attention kids

[bUrRpPPP!]

TIK CHART Appears to be exact same bottom pattern as last time...note the RSI ....could be ready to move up!

[croptop]

WTF?

[croptop]

yes strange to see that much on the ask...hide & seek...

[croptop]

don't know, but why 5.30? Any news should help if profitable quarter..

[FairviewInvestor]

17.9K shares is HUGE based on avg volume.

great. someone anticipating selling into pending news, eh

[FairviewInvestor]

Added another position 5.20 today.... to go with the many I have from errrrrr over a Year ago!

[croptop]

17K on the ask....

[FairviewInvestor]

Silence Before Storm ??

[tbirdman]

Pumper alert

[croptop]

TIK 14A filing went Profitable
TIK has a 30% sequential revenue increase & went profitable in current quarter & sees
nothing but higher Rev's & higher profits going forward.

[croptop]

Tel-Instrument Electronics Corp (“TIC” or the “Company”) (NYSE MKT:TIK) will host a conference call and webcast on Monday, November 17, 2014 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the Company’s fiscal second quarter results.

To access the live webcast, log onto the Tel-Instrument Electronics’ website at https://www.telinstrument.com/learn-about-telinsturment/investor-relations.html.

[bUrRpPPP!]

TIK $5.00 Looks like someone cant wait for earnings and is selling today... great entry price for fence sitters...

[FairviewInvestor]

Next Earnings CC 2nd week of November... that's when we start to see strong upward movement!

GO Tik

[FairviewInvestor]

TIK announces earnings. $0.29 EPS. $4.50m

[FairviewInvestor]

Earnings Conference Call - Monday!


http://www.4-traders.com/TEL-INSTRUMENT-ELECTRONIC-16018/news/Tel-Instrument-Electronics--to-Host-Conference-Call-to-Discuss-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-2-18641784/

[FairviewInvestor]

Don't think so. won't do much until Q3 projects are pre-announced within next couple months latest..

will recover very nicely by the end of the year and double+ from here.

[croptop]

Going under 4?

[FairviewInvestor]

Medium Term looks great... but I'll put my hand in the air and admit I'm a major bag holder at the moment.

woulda, coulda, should have

[OPT]

Accumulation is a good thing..

Go Tik!!!!!!

[bUrRpPPP!]

Receipt of $4.1 Million of TS-4530A Orders